Episode 1020: "What Politics and Pinball Have in Common"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·17m 43s·analyzed·Nov 6, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.031

TL;DR

Kaneda blames pinball manufacturers' theme bubble-thinking for poor game selection and calls for consumer-driven design.

Summary

Kaneda uses the day-after-election political landscape as an analogy for pinball industry problems: manufacturers operate in bubbles and make poor theme licensing decisions without understanding what consumers actually want. He critiques Jersey Jack's recent theme choices (Toy Story 4, The Godfather, Avatar), argues that Stern has missteps but shows signs of course-correction, and predicts Harry Potter will be a 'day of reckoning' for JJP. He also criticizes pricing tiers (Pro vs. LE) lacking meaningful differentiation and urges manufacturers to listen to players and operators rather than catering to tournament circuits.

Key Claims

Jersey Jack would have gone out of business years ago without its backing capital; they wouldn't have survived past The Hobbit, Dialed In, or Pirates of the Caribbean
high confidence · Kaneda speaking directly, ~11 minutes in
Harry Potter will be a 'day of reckoning' for Jersey Jack—either they'll knock it out of the park or strike out and look ridiculous
high confidence · Kaneda's direct prediction, ~18 minutes in
Stern has never surveyed players about what themes they want until recently, which signals they didn't trust their own judgment
high confidence · Kaneda citing Stern's recent market research shift, ~25 minutes in
Thousands of unsold games are sitting in distro warehouses, causing financial strain on location operators
medium confidence · Kaneda's anecdote about $150k in Stern premium inventory, ~25 minutes in
An X-Men LE can cost $8,500 more than X-Men Pro but offers identical code, modes, music, and callouts
medium confidence · Kaneda's pricing analysis, ~29 minutes in
Toy Story 4 pinball captured none of the magic from the beloved film franchise
high confidence · Kaneda expressing direct opinion on JJP's execution, ~14 minutes in
Video game IP like Cuphead and Halo will struggle to sell compared to nostalgic franchises like Sonic, Zelda, or Super Mario
medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction based on mainstream appeal analysis, ~21 minutes in
Spooky Pinball will get Evil Dead right because they understand their niche audience and will market smartly
medium confidence · Kaneda's qualified prediction, ~20 minutes in
Keith Elwin's games succeed because the designer works unified with the software team from the start with a clear mission
medium confidence · Kaneda contrasting JJP's design process with Elwin's, ~15 minutes in

Notable Quotes

“How did people get it so wrong? How were people so off on measuring the way people really felt and what mattered most to voters? And I want to quickly pivot that to pinball. How have these pinball companies gotten it so wrong when it comes to the themes that people want in pinball?”
Kaneda @ ~3 minutes — Sets up the core thesis: manufacturers operate in bubbles disconnected from consumer demand, just like political pollsters
“If I was employed over at Jersey Jack Pinball six years ago this company would be twice the size it is today... if Jersey Jack had to survive under its own pinball sales merits, they'd be out of business like three titles ago.”
Kaneda @ ~12 minutes — Scathing critique of JJP's financial reliance on non-pinball backing; implies they've made catastrophic business decisions
“Just name me one moment in avatar pinball that is magical. One moment. I'm just asking for one moment, not a topper, not a specially dipped armor, not a play field with UV ink, but name me a moment in the game that you are hearing people say is incredible.”
Kaneda @ ~15 minutes — Highlights the emotional/gameplay disconnect in Avatar; contrasts with Elton John's memorable wizard modes
“How do you then go make a Toy Story pinball machine and capture none of that? None of that. That's really frustrating.”
Kaneda @ ~17 minutes — Directly criticizes Jersey Jack's inability to translate beloved IP into compelling pinball experience
“I think Harry Potter is going to be a day of reckoning for Jersey Jack. They are either going to knock it out of the park or they are going to strike out and look ridiculous.”
Kaneda @ ~18 minutes — Positions Harry Potter as a make-or-break moment for JJP's future credibility
“The operators are your customers, not the tournament players. Oh man, it's a whole new world.”
Kaneda @ ~30 minutes — Core argument about market segmentation: manufacturers should prioritize location operators and collectors, not IFPA players
“They've spent two years making something. They have nothing but time to get it right. I shouldn't have to in just a few minutes be able to easily point out why a game is not going to sell in the current pinball market.”

Entities

Jersey Jack PinballcompanyJack GuarneripersonStern PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyKeith Elwinperson Mark Seidenperson

Signals

~
sentiment_shift: Kaneda notes widespread inventory overstock and community frustration with theme selection, suggesting loss of consumer confidence in manufacturer judgment
high · Thousands of unsold games in distro warehouses; Toy Story 4 sitting at $3-5k discount; community voting with wallets
$
market_signal: LE pricing premiums ($8,500+) unjustified by feature differences; community questioning why Pro and LE share identical code/modes/callouts
high · X-Men LE vs Pro comparison; Kaneda's explicit pricing critique at ~29 minutes
?
product_strategy: Manufacturers appear to select themes based on designer personal preference (bubble thinking) rather than systematic market research
high · Jack Guarneri designing for NJ mafia fans; Elton John selection criticized as personal nostalgia; Stern finally conducting market surveys after 12 years
?
design_philosophy: Games with unified designer-software missions (Keith Elwin model) produce more memorable, magical moments than fragmented approaches (JJP Avatar)
medium · Elton John wizard modes praised; Avatar criticized for lack of memorable moments; question about Mark Seiden/Keith Johnson collaboration
?
business_signal: Jersey Jack Pinball's viability dependent on non-pinball backing; would have folded years ago on pinball sales alone
medium · Kaneda's direct claim that JJP would be out of business without background capital; wouldn't have survived past Hobbit/Dialed In/Pirates of Caribbean

Topics

Theme licensing and market researchprimaryJersey Jack Pinball's business health and design decisionsprimaryManufacturer accountability to consumers vs. designer personal preferenceprimaryPricing tiers (Pro vs. Premium vs. LE) and value justificationprimaryInventory overstock and sales decline across industryprimaryHarry Potter as critical upcoming releaseprimaryDesigner-software team collaboration and game soulsecondaryVideo game IP translation to pinballsecondaryTournament players vs. location operators as target customersecondaryNostalgia-driven theme appeal over modern IPsecondary

Sentiment

negative(0.25)— Kaneda is frustrated and critical of manufacturer decision-making, particularly Jersey Jack, but hopeful about course-correction (Stern, Harry Potter). Tone is disappointed and analytical rather than angry. He advocates for change constructively, framing criticism as industry feedback.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.053

I know that last night we lit the liquor top. I can't remember everything we said, but we said it all. You told me that you wish I was somebody you never met. But baby, baby, something's telling me this ain't over yet. Sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up. Welcome everybody to Canada's Pinball Podcast. As you can hear, I've kind of lost my voice. I've been getting sick, but I still want to do a pinball podcast today. Happy day after the election, everybody. Some of you are happy. Some of you are devastated. But you don't come to Canada's Pinball Podcast for my political banter. I did want to take a moment to try to connect a little bit what happened yesterday with what goes on in the pinball world and how do you get something so off. And if you were following the political world, it doesn't matter which way you voted. You saw a bunch of like polling about how the country was feeling about each candidate. And you were being told every single day it was a dead heat. It was a coin toss, right? It was going to be like the most closely contested election in history. And it was anything but that. I don't always believe in polls. Like people aren't always honest. Here's the common thread between last night and pinball. How did people get it so wrong? How were people so off on measuring the way people really felt and what mattered most to voters? And I want to quickly pivot that to pinball. How have these pinball companies gotten it so wrong when it comes to the themes that people want in pinball? And it just goes to show you it doesn't matter like how popular you think you are. It doesn't matter if you live in a bubble where everyone is supporting your decisions. what really matters is the true feeling of the target audience you need to win over and when i look at pinball over the last few years how does a company like jersey jack sign a license for toy story 4 and think that's what people want did they do any research no how does a company like jersey Jack, then go make The Godfather, a title that's not even a good theme for pinball. You should know better that if you need to make a world under glass based on a movie and pinball is a high energy, bright, colorful game that requires a lot of personality and fun, how do you land on The Godfather? Again, Jack Guarnieri living in a bubble, basically just made this game for him and his inner circle of people in New Jersey who grew up on those mafia films and mafia TV shows. And guess what? Most people don't want it. How do you end up making a game about barbecuing? Right? It doesn't make any sense to anybody. How do you land on Cuphead? It doesn't make a lot of sense to anybody. I would even argue stuff like Looney Tunes is really not what most people want. We definitely know Venom and games like John Wick are also games where if you just asked people to be honest, should we make this game, they would have told you no. And I think what happened yesterday in the election was very eye-opening. And I think the last few years of pinball sales have been very eye-opening to these companies. That if you want to stay in business and be successful and drop a pinball product into the world, that's actually going to win people over and get people excited and get people energized. And I've been saying that for the longest time, the last few weeks. I just think this hobby has failed to deliver a game that has really universally energized the pinball community. Was it going to be X-Men? No, because it was like not another Marvel theme. And then we see X-Men having all these mechanical issues. And it's like, well, that's an easy choice now. I don't need another Marvel game. And now you got another Marvel game. And it's having quality control issues. Like, no thank you right away. And then you get a theme like Avatar. I mean, Jersey Jack's theme selection to me is mind-boggling. It is mind And I just going to say this If I was employed over at Jersey Jack Pinball six years ago this company would be twice the size it is today twice the size And if it wasn't for all the billions they have in the background, this company would be out of business. You all know this, right? Like if Jersey Jack had to survive under its own pinball sales merits, they'd be out of business like three titles ago. They wouldn't even have made it past The Hobbit. Let's be honest, people. They wouldn't have made it past The Hobbit. they sure as heck would not have made it past Dialed In. They would not have made it past the Pirates of the Caribbean debacle. Everything would have sank them, everything. I think what's frustrating to most of us out there is how easy it is. It is not hard to pick a pinball theme that people want. It is not hard to then take that theme and actually engineer a few things, not a lot, just a few things that translate that theme into a world under glass. And it is certainly not hard to find an artist to make the game look good. I think the hardest part in all the pinball, and I mean this, is really finding the right software team. Because I think that's the most difficult part. Because I think finding the right software-minded people, and maybe it's a little bit of both, right? A designer that understands rule sets and designs his game with the journey in mind so that when he hands it off to his team, his software team, they're all unified in what the mission is with the game. And that's why we see such good games from Keith Elwin, because he does that and that team does that. Do you feel like that happens at Jersey Jack? Do you feel like when Mark Seiden designed Avatar, that Keith P. Johnson was along for the ride and they designed that game together and they were so excited to put the stuff into the game that's in the game and they were so excited for you to get to the modes in the game that you were going to remember forever. I don't get that sense at all. If I were to ask you right now, what's a moment, right? Just a single moment in avatar pinball. Just name me one moment in avatar pinball that is magical. One moment. I'm just asking for one moment, not a topper, not a specially dipped armor, not a play field with UV ink, but name me a moment in the game that you are hearing people say is incredible. There are moments in Elton John, right? When you do the Rocketman multiball and when you start the wizard modes going into the different cities, there are moments in that game. I absolutely believe there are. But man, this hobby needs to really wake up in 2025. And I think it's going to. I really do. I think Harry Potter is going to be a day of reckoning for Jersey Jack. They are either going to knock it out of the park or they are going to strike out and look ridiculous. If they mess up Harry Potter, I really do think everyone's just going to be done. Like we're done. Like this company can keep selling its $15,000 beautiful soulless games, or they're finally going to make a game with a soul outside of GNR. They're finally going to make a game where the passion comes through, where the personality comes through and it's on them, right? There's no lack of personality and soul in the Harry Potter franchise, right? And that's the thing. Like if you're going to make a pinball machine based on something people love, and then you make a version of that IP and then they don't love it. I mean, raise of hands out there. How many of you love Toy Story so much? I'm raising my hand right now. How many of you can quote that movie? How many of you have so many fond memories of that film? How do you then go make a Toy Story pinball machine and capture none of that? None of that. That's really frustrating. And then if your Stern pinball. This company seems like they kind of get it every once in a while, and then they kind of make boneheaded decisions. And you know that Stern needs to get it right. Stern's investors are not happy when a game like John Wick comes out. They're not happy when a game like Venom comes out. And they really made some missteps. So I'm really confident Stern is going to course correct. I'm also confident that Stern is going to get the ability to make back to the future. I'm really hoping Stern can ink that deal with Dutch Pinball. I think if they do, it's going to be incredible. And I think it's going to be the right move for Dutch and the right move for Stern. I think Cuphead is going to come out and I don think it going to be a great seller And then it going to get retired That the new thing now You just start retiring titles when nobody wants them anymore You know, look, let's be honest. If people wanted to buy some of the older titles that are in stock and in your inventory, they would. I think we're going to see more manufacturers follow in the footsteps of AP and put old inventory on sale. I see Jersey Jack on Facebook is trying to sell new in box Toy Story 4s, right? Who's going to wake up in 2024 in November and pay full retail for a Toy Story 4, a game that's going for like $3,000 to $4,000 to $5,000 off what it was brand new. And we know those games are sitting in inventory. And we know there's thousands of Stern machines sitting in inventory. And so look, I just hope that everybody wakes up. I hope everybody politically wakes up a little bit. I hope everybody in the pinball world wakes up a little bit. It's not hard to figure out what's most important to people. It's not hard to figure out what's most important to pinheads. And look, it's not about you. Especially when you run a pinball company, you are in servitude to the buyers, to the consumer that you need to sell your product to. So if Spooky Pinball wants to make a game because they want to make it for themselves because they love that theme, that's a big risk. That's a big gamble. And if you're going to do that, then you've got to be really smart with your marketing. How many are we going to make? And is this aligned with where we think the demand is going to be? Look, and if you get that right, you're good. You're golden. And I think Spooky is going to get that right with Evil Dead. I think games based on video game properties like Cuphead and Halo, I think they're really going to struggle to take off. Now, stuff like Sonic the Hedgehog, a little bit better, right? Much more mainstream, a lot more years in which people have enjoyed those properties. I think Sonic the Hedgehog, Zelda, Donkey Kong, Super Mario Brothers, all those are phenomenal themes that would sell much better than a Cuphead or a Halo. One of the biggest games of all time would not make for a good pinball machine. Grand Theft Auto. I don't want a Grand Theft Auto pinball machine. I don't want a Fortnite pinball machine. You got to go more nostalgic. You got to go into themes where it's easier to put that world under glass into the pinball experience. So I think a lot's gonna shake out over the next six months. I really do. I think something's gonna have to give. We're either gonna get the themes that we need because those are the themes we want. Those are the themes we have conviction for. And we're not gonna be silent about it anymore. I think people have been very vocal, much like last night. I think people have been very vocal voting with their wallets in the pinball world. And the more you vote with your wallet, the more you're actually gonna get change. Look, I've been covering this hobby for 12 years and Stern has never in that 12 year period sent out a survey asking people, what do you want? And they finally did it. And that came from their leadership, right? They don't know better than us. That is an admission that they don't know better than we do. And I think for the longest time, they acted like they did. And then flop after flop, thousands of unsold games piling up, distros getting nervous, right? Can't afford to do this, honey. I've got $150,000 in Stern premiums sitting in a warehouse. Tell the kids we can't take that $15,000 Antonio Cruz. I mean, that's what's going to happen. And they need to start listening to their dealers more. And they need to start listening to their distros. And they need to listen to the pinball podcasters of the world because we're not trying to hurt these companies. And I think that's a really important point. I'm not doing this because I want to just be some angry shock jock pinball podcaster. I want to see these companies make better decisions. I shouldn't have to in just a few minutes be able to easily point out why a game is not going to sell in the current pinball market. They've spent two years making something. They have nothing but time to get it right. You know, when games come out, sure, we can nitpick them here and there, but I shouldn't be questioning why this game came out. I'm not questioning why they made Jaws. Jaws makes total sense. But yeah, why John Wick? Why Venom? Doesn't make sense to me. Why another Marvel pinball machine? Doesn't make total sense to me. And I think that the thing If you can answer the why right away why we making Toy Story 4 man Makes no sense Why are we making Elton John when our buyer base would much rather have Red Hot Chili Peppers Motley Crue, Nirvana, you know, Beastie Boys? Why are we starting here? Jack, I get that you love Elton. I get that when you were a young little spitfire, you loved the Godfather and you loved Elton John. But guess what, Jack? We're not making games for you. We're making games for them. And I think the company that gets that right is going to win pinball. And we know Stern gets it right more than they get it wrong. But they've got some work to do. Because as I said, as I said, these modern games are hitting each and every one of us where it hurts the most in the wallet. Like there's no getting around the fact that a Stern LE is twice the price of a Stern Pro. is X-Men LE twice as much fun as X-Men Pro? Does it give you twice as much in anything? No. And so I think everyone's waking up to that. Like, why would you spend $13,000? And remember, people, this is without a topper. A Stern game without a topper might be $14,000 to $15,000 fully accessorized. So that means with a topper, an X-Men LE potentially could be $8,500 more than an X-Men Pro. Just think about that for a minute. $8,500 more for the same exact code, same exact modes, same exact music, same exact call outs, same exact memories. You are not going to have $8,500 more memories if you go for that limited edition package. They need to wake up. An LE should have features that both the premium and pro do not have. An LE should have modes that no other game has. I want to know that my rich neighbor down the block who spent $8,500 more than I did is having $8,500 more fun than I am. And that's only going to happen if they actually start taking this stuff seriously and wake up and listen to us. Listen to the pinball community. Like, oh, we got to make all games the same because what will happen in the tournament world if there's different rule sets for the more expensive games? Who cares? Who cares? Those tournament players aren't buying LEs. Why are you catering to them? They're not even buying the damn pros. They're not even buying new in-box games. Why are you catering so much to the army out there that's not making you any money? The operators are your customers, not the tournament players. Oh man, it's a whole new world. It's a beautiful day here in Rewading, Connecticut. It's nothing but blue in this state, but I always notice this about these neighborhoods, right? It's like, it's easy to like virtual signal, like your political beliefs, but I have a hard time feeling like these super wealthy people are really devastated as most of them will be at the bar tonight having a lobster roll and a martini, right? Right. They're devastated. How can they go on? America's Rune as I'm on my yacht eating lobster rolls. Okay, sure. But as I always say, I'm very moderate. I think you need to be respectful. I think division is a bad thing. I think there's more that unites us than divides us. Absolutely. I think the same is true in pinball. I think we all want the same stuff, right? We want games to be affordable. We want them to be magical. We want them to be great themes. We want them to have creativity and innovation in them. And we want some variety. I'm so tired of the same selections over and over again because if you're going to keep doing that I'll just go buy the older games for so much cheaper and not even waste any money opening a cardboard box everybody get through today it's going to get better if you're in pain and if you are happy with the outcome don't be too boastful be respectful just do the right thing always show people the kind of respect that you want to be shown everybody have a great day Kaneda out This time you really weren't coming back again. But baby, baby, something's telling me this ain't over yet. No way it was that last night. No way it was that last night.