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Episode 1094: "Potter & Predator To Be Released The Same Week?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·23m 15s·analyzed·May 27, 2025
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.031

TL;DR

Kaneda warns Potter/Predator simultaneous June release hurts both sales; predicts mechanical underwhelm and critiques pinball marketing.

Summary

Kaneda discusses the potential simultaneous release of Harry Potter and Predator pinball machines in mid-June, criticizing the marketing strategy and predicting both games will underwhelm mechanically due to design trends toward simpler manufacturing. He advocates for better advance marketing timelines, themed aesthetic considerations (candle-lit for Potter, organic jungle for Predator), and argues summer is poor timing for boutique pinball launches compared to December (Spooky's proven strategy). Kaneda also covers rumored upcoming titles and the decline of FOMO in the market due to lackluster IP choices.

Key Claims

  • Harry Potter and Predator are scheduled to release the same week in mid-June 2025

    medium confidence · Kaneda, based on distributor messages and assuming Predator Day (June 12) as release date

  • Harry Potter artwork changes for LE and Wizard editions are tied to collector's edition production strategy, potentially limiting CE to 1000 units

    low confidence · Kaneda citing rumors about licensor approval delays

  • Jersey Jack has designed Harry Potter with fewer physical toys and mechs than expected, relying on diverters, Vux, and artwork to disguise mechanical emptiness

    medium confidence · Kaneda's analysis of JJP's last four games and design philosophy

  • Predator will feature four pop bumpers as primary mechanical attraction with significant open playfield space, similar to Alien's design

    medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction based on game specs and width/complexity analysis

  • Tales of the Arabian Nights remake from Pedretti Gaming with Brian Allen on artwork is coming soon

    low confidence · Kaneda citing rumors about upcoming releases

  • Simultaneous game launches (like Dune/Kong) and summer timing hurt sales compared to December (Spooky's strategy) or winter months

    medium confidence · Kaneda's market analysis and personal philosophy on seasonality

  • FOMO is dead in pinball due to lackluster IP choices; will return with properties like Back to the Future, Gremlins, Goonies, Star Wars, Beetlejuice

    medium confidence · Kaneda discussing market sentiment with Jason Knapp

  • King Kong LE machines are unsold and depreciating $3000+, indicating weak secondary market demand

    medium confidence · Kaneda's observations of market listings and secondary sales

  • Pinball companies should announce game reveal dates 4 weeks in advance instead of surprise reveals

Notable Quotes

  • “If you're a boutique, if you're Pinball Brothers, don't release your game when there's 52 weeks in a year. Why would you release your game right on top of Jersey Jack's biggest release ever?”

    Kaneda @ ~06:30 — Core criticism of Predator's simultaneous release strategy with Potter

  • “I feel like both of these games are going to underwhelm us. I feel like there's a reason both of these games are somewhat stalling. I don't buy it that it's just licensor approval.”

    Kaneda @ ~16:45 — Skepticism about mechanical depth despite licensing delays

  • “The window between the moment you announce the title and the moment you reveal the game should be no longer than four weeks.”

    Kaneda @ ~13:00 — Marketing philosophy and criticism of current pinball industry practice

  • “Every day I'm waking up now and I feel like I care less every single day. There's only so much excitement and only so much energy you can apply to this stuff before it starts to feel a little fatiguing.”

    Kaneda @ ~12:15 — Community sentiment shift on announcement fatigue and hype decay

  • “The only reason you're likely to have more fun with Avatar is your expectations are so low, but it's not an underrated game. You know what I'm saying? It's not just Kaneda saying the game is underwhelming.”

    Kaneda @ ~32:30 — Assessment of recent JJP game reception and broader quality concerns

  • “Pinball is a winter sport. Do I want to be inside during the most beautiful months of this year when I could be having experiences that are enriching my life?”

    Kaneda @ ~19:45 — Seasonality argument for winter launches over summer

  • “FOMO's gonna come back when those titles hit. When Back to the Future comes out, it's gonna be day one sellout. When Beetlejuice comes out, same thing, FOMO, day one sellout.”

    Kaneda @ ~27:15 — Prediction about which IP will restore market enthusiasm

Entities

KanedapersonJersey Jack PinballcompanyPinball BrotherscompanySpooky PinballcompanyHarry PottergamePredatorgameTales of the Arabian Nightsgame

Signals

  • $

    market_signal: Harry Potter and Predator expected to launch same week (mid-June), creating direct consumer choice conflict and potentially depressing sales for both titles

    medium · Kaneda cites distributor messages and June 12 Predator Day timing; questions rationale of simultaneous launch for boutique vs. major manufacturer

  • ?

    design_philosophy: Jersey Jack trending toward fewer physical toys/mechs in recent games, substituting diverters, Vux, and artwork to disguise mechanical emptiness

    medium · Kaneda analyzes JJP's last four games and predicts Harry Potter will follow this pattern; cites Avatar, Godfather as examples of 'empty' games

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Community enthusiasm declining due to extended announcement-to-reveal windows and unmet expectations; Kaneda reports caring 'less every single day'

    high · Direct statement: 'Every day I'm waking up now and I feel like I care less every single day'; describes hearing rumors that don't materialize as fatiguing

  • ?

    product_concern: Both Potter and Predator predicted to underdeliver mechanically; Predator with four pop bumpers may feel sparse in wide-body format; Potter may lack 'wow' toys despite expensive license

    medium · Kaneda predicts both will be 'emptier than you want them to be'; questions why mechanical innovation absent from recent JJP games

  • $

    market_signal: King Kong LE experiencing poor secondary market performance with unsold inventory and $3000+ depreciation

    medium · Kaneda reports 'couple hundred King Kong LEs unsold' and states buyers 'lost $3,000'; cites inability to move machines

Topics

Harry Potter and Predator simultaneous release impactprimaryGame design philosophy and mechanical depth trendsprimaryPinball marketing strategy and announcement timingprimarySeasonal market dynamics for pinball salesprimaryFOMO decline and IP appeal in pinballprimaryTheme aesthetics and playfield design philosophysecondarySecondary market pricing and game depreciationsecondaryRumored upcoming game announcementssecondary

Sentiment

negative(0.25)— Kaneda expresses frustration with announcement fatigue, skepticism about mechanical design choices, criticism of marketing practices, and pessimism about both Potter and Predator meeting expectations. Some hope expressed ('I hope they prove me wrong') but overall tone is cynical about current industry direction and product quality trends.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.070

I'd be the last to say don't follow your heart, but there's more to what it takes to be a man than what you've known, what you've shown, than that we know you understand. Welcome everybody to Canada's Pinball Podcast. I hope everybody had a great long Memorial Day weekend. You were outside. Hopefully the Carl Weathers was good. You were barbecuing and you weren't on pin side trying to find out where are Harry Potter and Predator. these two games I'm now getting messages from people I'm a distributor and I'm hearing they're coming out in two weeks now look we've been saying that predator day is June 12th and that is in two weeks I hate those words two weeks every time we think something is two weeks away it's more like two months away but we know that predator is right around the corner there is another teaser from the pinball brothers they put up the red polo shirt that dutch wears in the movie during the handshake scene we also know that harry potter here's the latest i'm hearing the artwork changes they wanted to the game were on the le and the wizard edition of the game so the collector's editions can be made i don't know do you believe that i just think they want to sell as many collector's editions as they possibly can. Maybe that's going to be the story. We can't make the other ones until we get approval. So we're going to take as many orders as possible on the collector's edition of the game. There's a rumor now that it's going to be limited to 1000 units. I don't know. What I know is this. Every single person who loves pinball, who's excited to see these two games, is tired of the wait because we've known about these games now for months, many months. Remember, it was back in March that Jack said, everybody, hold on to your money. Harry Potter's coming. Then they had a teaser image and we thought the game was going to drop right on top of maybe King Kong and they did nothing. And there's been nothing since then. And so Pinball Brothers also seemingly is on track to release the game when they wanted to release it. So I'm just assuming it's the day Predator movie came out in 1987 on June 12th. Nobody cares about that date though. This is the crazy part. So if what I'm hearing is true, then these two games are going to come out at exactly the same time. And I just want to say this. If you're a boutique, If you're Pinball Brothers, don't release your game when there's 52 weeks in the year. Why would you release your game right on top of Jersey Jack's biggest release ever? Why would you do that? Just from a pure marketing standpoint, they should have released Predator two weeks ago. They should be collecting non-refundable deposits on the game because here's why. Nothing's changed about the game. Whatever game they had two weeks ago is the same exact game they're going to show you in two weeks. But the difference a month will make on how many orders they're going to get is going to be predicated on the Harry Potter launch. And people don't have this much disposable income. I don't care what anybody says. You're not ordering two games at the same time. You don't have room for two new games. You don't want to spend 20 something thousand, $30,000 on two new games. You just don't want to. And also like, I think when people get a new pinball machine, we don't talk about this that much, but you really just want to enjoy that machine for a while, explore the game, have it be the new thing in your game room. Why would you need two, three, four new games in your game room until you fully explored one game. And so I think people who buy Predator or Dune or King Kong, they want to have that honeymoon period with the game. They want to enjoy it and they want to keep playing it, right? Almost every single new game, I hope every new game that comes into your game room makes you want to play it 2,000 times at least. You know, when people see these games up for sale, I've had this game for four years and it's got 120 plays. Those people, their lives are broken. There was no need to get it. If you're not going to play your games, why get them? Now, people say, hey, Kaneda, you kept your Guns N' Roses in a box. Yeah, because I didn't have room for it. But since it's been here, I've played this game a lot. I got to do an audit how many times I've played it. But if I had to guess. I've easily played Guns N' Roses, I don't know, six, seven hundred times. And when I start playing and I get a session going, at least like 20 games in a row, at least. And so that's the thing, too, about all these new games this year is you've got people who just bought Evil Dead They enjoying Evil Dead You got people who just bought Dune You got people who just bought King Kong You got some people that bought Portal Now you need some people to buy Predator. You're going to get a lot of people to buy Harry Potter. So launching these games on top of each other, big mistake. Big mistake by Pinball Brothers to launch on top of Harry Potter. Also, a seemingly big mistake for Barrels to launch on top of a Keith Elwin game. Those two games came out, Dune and Kong, the same exact week. It was like both games on that Tuesday were trying to get our attention. Now, if what I'm hearing is accurate, we might see Harry Potter and Predator release at the same exact time. Now, here's my thing. Every day I'm waking up now and I feel like, and maybe you feel this way too, I care less every single day. I mean this. There's only so much excitement and only so much energy you can apply to this stuff before it starts to feel a little fatiguing because it gets fatiguing hearing everybody wait and speculate and hear the rumors I'm hearing and then none of the rumors come true. Nobody has seemingly seen the game and you just want to see it. I do think the window, and I mean this, the window between the moment you announce the title and the moment you reveal the game should be no longer than four weeks. And the problem with all the pinball is nobody does the marketing correctly. And I mean that. And here's what all of these companies need to wake up. I want to know a month out, what is the day the game will be revealed? If you just do that, then you can have a fun four week lead up to the reveal of the game. But nobody does that. They do this annoying thing where you don't know the release date. You don't know what time of day it's going to happen. You don't know anything until just two days or a day before they just pull the curtain off the game. And that's a big mistake. So let's say, for example, that Predator Pinball is going to be revealed to the world on Predator Day, June 12th. Well, why aren't you saying that? You give people an opportunity to get together more. People will have a lot more fun with your teasers if they know it's going to culminate in that June 12th date. I know when major movies come out. I know when major video games come out. I know when albums drop. But in the world of pinball, we've got to keep everything a guarded secret just up until a day before it happens. And I think it's annoying because the problem is we already know the themes. We know what it's going to be. And if you're going to do a teaser campaign, at least make it something that's somewhat interesting, not a picture of a polo shirt, not a letter in a sealed envelope saying, hey, more is about to come. I mean, that Jersey Jack letter about this is the culmination of all of our dreams and all of our hopes and all of our wishes. Come on, where's the game? And the other thing that happens is this. The more you draw it out, the more people's expectations start to go in a lot of different places. And this is how I feel. I feel like both of these games are going to underwhelm us. I mean that. I feel like both of them are going to underwhelm us. I feel like there's a reason both of these games are somewhat stalling. I don't buy it that it's just licensor approval. I don't buy it. I think when both of these games get shown to the world, I think the number one thing everyone's going to pick up on is I think both games mechanically are going to be emptier than you want them to be. I think both of them. I think Pinball Brothers don't even have the engineering ability to make stuff that's really, really incredible. And I think Jersey Jack, looking at their last four games, they want to make games that are easier to manufacture. I don't think you're going to see all of these crazy toys and mechs. Where has that been over the last like eight years of this company? and so why now do we all of a sudden think that they're going to throw everything into this game when the license itself was so expensive no no no I do think we're going to see upper play field I do think we're probably going to see a lower play field I think they're going to use layers and I think they're going to use artwork to disguise what is not really in the game physically And this company over the last four games has replaced toys with diverters, with Vux, with other things. But the toys themselves, the magical mechs, the wow moments, really, they're not there. They're really not there in the games. So look, I hope Harry Potter makes us all a believer. I hope it blows us away. I rooting for that but if I were to put my money on it my guess is that Harry Potter is going to be a lot more barren than people want it to be I think Predator is going to be the same thing Four pop bumpers really You know how much real estate that's going to take up? So on top of those four pop bumpers, and it's a wide body game, what else do you think is going to be in the game? Alien wasn't a loaded game. Alien's one of these games where it didn't need to be a wide body, when you actually look at an alien machine, you're like, why is this game so wide? And there's so much open space on the game. That entire play field is wide open on Alien. Everything's happening in the back of the game. What I really hope for both of these games and my wish for both Potter and Predator, because there is the greatest opportunity to create a world under glass for each of these. Both of these movies, and this is why they are both really good franchises for pinball, because they both have a very distinctive universe and world that you can put under glass. Harry Potter, Hogwarts. It's got to all be about the school. It's all about Wizarding World. I mean, they have a whole damn universe named after it. So the wizarding world needs to be under glass. The one thing I don't want to see in Harry Potter, rainbow puke lighting all day long. No, they need to make it feel like it's from that period. Candle lit lighting. It should not be rainbow puke. I'm a little worried. I want to see like in the windows of Hogwarts castle. I want to see the flame of a candle. I don't want it to look like I'm walking into a casino in Las Vegas the way Godfather does, the way all the recent games have looked. It worked on Elton John because Elton John is a freaking 1970s psychedelic journey. But on Avatar, you know, it's just like everything's just lighting up all the time on these modern games. I think the theme needs to dictate the lighting more. Predator. It's a jungle, right? it should look like a jungle. I'm curious to see how they do that because you know what you don't find in the jungle, ladies and gentlemen? Plastic. It's like the one thing that's the opposite of an organic world. And so if we look down at this Predator game and it's all like flat plastics with illustrations of the jungle, you failed. I'm sorry, people. For this much money, I can go on to like train forums where people build train sets and find realistic sculpts that look like a jungle and you're going to spend $10,000 and I hope we don't get a flat plastic jungle. So if there ever was a game that just needed some sculpts and needed to feel like you're in this organic jungle, it's Predator. And if there ever was a game that needed a helicopter, a waterfall, it's this game. You need the trees. You need it all in there. You need machine gun action. So we will see what happens. Because after this, right, after these two games, is there anything else we think we're going to get before we get to Stern's next game? The other game I'm hearing is right around the corner is another remake of Tales of the Arabian Nights. And that is going to be from Pedretti Gaming with Brian Allen on artwork. Now, Totem is a very popular game amongst collectors, and if a brand new one comes out, is it going to do well? Their Funhaus remake did not do well at all. I'm a little worried. I think the reputation of quality is not there for Pedretti Gaming, and this is another one where it's like, what are you waiting for? What are you really waiting for? Are you waiting for all of this money to be gobbled up by everybody else? And look, if you have a remake of Totem, just announce it. Just absolutely announce it and show it and lock in deposits. Because that's the thing now, is these companies are all launching on top of each other. And you either have to come out first and lock in the deposits or be last. But there's going to come a point where like everybody's just good. And it's the summertime, people. a lot of people now are going to start spending their disposable income on outdoor activities, on vacations, on other things. And I think a lot of people, it's not just like they can't afford it, but again, pinball is a winter sport. Do I want to be inside during the most beautiful months of this year when I could be having experiences that are enriching my life? Do I really want to buy a machine now that I know is going to lose a lot of money, stick it in my game room, lose $2,000 to $3,000 when I could have just waited, listened to Kaneda, buy it in the fall. By then, the game will be $3,000 cheaper. The code will be further along. And then I'm ready to play pinball because I'm heading into the winter months. Much smarter approach. And that's me saying, I don't think the summertime is a great time at all to launch your pinball machines. Now, Stern has to launch a new game every four months. I get it for them. But isn it crazy that all the other boutique companies in pinball think about what they all doing They all launching on top of each other And only one company has carved out I think the best time of year to launch a pinball machine. And that's December. And that's what Spooky Pinball does. They own the month of December as the time in which they show their new game. No boutique companies launch on top of them. And they have this amazing window to get all the attention, all the orders without having to compete with anything else. Because remember, Stern doesn't even launch then. Stern's usually sometime around October and then sometime in February, March. So they've carved out this nice month of December. And it's winter. You're home for the holidays. You're drinking a bunch of booze. and you're more likely to make an impulse decision like buy a pinball machine. That's the other thing too is like time it. If I were like a marketer and I was trying to get pinball sales, I wanna release my game on a day in which I know these wealthy buyers are drinking alcohol. Give me that day and that is the best day of the year to launch your pinball machine. So Tales of the Arabian Nights, do we actually think we're gonna get Cuphead anytime? I don't even know who wants that game. That game is dead on arrival. After that, is there anything, right? Are there any surprises coming from anywhere else? Supposedly this summer, people are going to get their CGC editions of the Merlin's edition of Medieval Madness. I'll believe it when I see it. How many times has CGC said, hey, we're going to ship in just a couple months, and then it's two years later. So I'll believe it when I see that. But then what's next from CGC, right? They released Pulp Fiction over two years ago. Where's the next Mark Ritchie pin? Where's Halo? Is that going to come out? You know, I was talking to Jason Knapp yesterday about all these rumors and it's interesting, right? Because we all joke about it. We all kind of know the same rumors. Gremlins, Goonies, Back to the Future, Star Wars, Pokemon. I mean, at this point, Nobody even listens anymore for rumors because we just know all this stuff What we also know is that very little really has come out that we truly really want And that's where I think most people are at I think the reason why FOMO's dead is simply the titles aren't things you truly really want FOMO's gonna come back when those titles hit When Back to the Future comes out, it's gonna be day one sellout when Beetlejuice comes out, same thing, FOMO, day one sellout. If it's Gremlins or Goonies, day one sellout. And for everything else, it's just going to be a really slow burn. It's going to be a really slow burn. For those of you who bought King Kong LE, you know you just lost $3,000. They're sitting. You can't move those games. There are probably at least a couple hundred King Kong LEs unsold, right? Unsold. And it doesn't matter how much time goes by. I saw Retro Ralph, our friend Retro Ralph is now saying that Avatar is underrated. What does that mean? It's not underrated. It's an underwhelming game. And the only reason you'd walk up to it while he has one, so he owns one. The only reason you're likely to have more fun with it is your expectations are so low, but it's not an underrated game. You know what I'm saying? It's not just Canada saying the game is underwhelming. So many people don't want that game. And it's not because it's better than we think it is. No, it's still an empty game. It's still a theme with muted clips. It's still a theme based on a movie that you haven't thought about since you saw it. It's a different world. Some of these newer big properties, you don't really think about them that much. Dune is the same problem. We all probably went and saw the Dune movies, but after watching them once, you never want to go see them again. You don't remember the moments like you did when you saw Luke Skywalker blow up the Death Star, or Jack Burden get on the Porkchop Express and beat Lopan, or saw the Karate Kid crane kick his way to the All-Valley Championship, or see Marty get in the DeLorean and go 88 miles an hour. these new movies just don't have it I remember Predator and seeing that movie way more than I'd ever see the new Dune and that's why nostalgia matters so much so we shall see people will it be two weeks are we going to get two games that exceed our expectations or are they going to be what Kaneda thinks are they going to be two games that underwhelm us and are a little a day late and a dollar short on getting the frenzy going. We shall see. I hope they prove me wrong. Ball's in their court, but they've been making us wait too long to see these games. And I think it's going to impact people's reaction to both games. Kaneda out. Even now I hope you understand

high confidence · Kaneda's direct marketing criticism and proposal

  • Avatar and recent JJP games use excessive 'rainbow puke' lighting inappropriate to theme, versus candle-lit aesthetic Potter requires

    high confidence · Kaneda's aesthetic critique and design philosophy statement

  • “For this much money, I can go on to like train forums where people build train sets and find realistic sculpts that look like a jungle and you're going to spend $10,000 and I hope we don't get a flat plastic jungle.”

    Kaneda @ ~18:30 — Criticism of flat plastic design philosophy for Predator's jungle theme

  • “Spooky Pinball owns the month of December as the time in which they show their new game. No boutique companies launch on top of them.”

    Kaneda @ ~21:00 — Market positioning example and strategic launch window analysis

  • “Very little really has come out that we truly really want. And that's where I think most people are at. I think the reason why FOMO's dead is simply the titles aren't things you truly really want.”

    Kaneda @ ~26:30 — Root cause analysis of declining market enthusiasm

  • Pedretti Gamingcompany
    Brian Allenperson
    King Konggame
    Dunegame
    Avatargame
    Aliengame
    Medieval Madnessgame
    CGCcompany
    Stern Pinballcompany
    Barrels of Funcompany
    Jason Knappperson
    Retro Ralphperson
    Evil Deadgame
  • ?

    product_strategy: December identified as optimal launch window (Spooky's strategy); summer and other months underperform due to competing leisure activities and consumer spending patterns

    high · Kaneda advocates for winter launches, criticizes summer releases, notes Spooky owns December with no boutique competition; argues pinball is 'winter sport'

  • ?

    content_signal: Well-known rumor cycle of unannounced titles (Back to Future, Gremlins, Goonies, Star Wars, Beetlejuice, Cuphead, Halo) widely discussed but not materialized

    medium · Kaneda notes 'nobody even listens anymore for rumors because we just know all this stuff'; discusses with Jason Knapp

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: FOMO-driven purchasing behavior largely dead; will only return for highly desired legacy IPs (Back to Future, Beetlejuice, Gremlins, Goonies) with day-one sellout potential

    high · Kaneda states 'FOMO's dead' due to weak IP choices; predicts resurrection only for specific franchises; describes current landscape as 'slow burn'

  • ?

    design_innovation: Kaneda expects Potter to use candle-lit, period-appropriate Hogwarts aesthetic vs. current 'rainbow puke' Vegas casino lighting trend; Predator needs organic jungle sculpts not flat plastic

    high · Explicit design philosophy statements about lighting and material choices; criticism of Godfather and Avatar for inappropriate aesthetics

  • ?

    manufacturing_signal: Jersey Jack appears to have shifted toward cheaper-to-manufacture designs due to expensive licensing costs; prioritizing production efficiency over mechanical complexity

    medium · Kaneda speculates cost-driven design choices: 'because the license itself was so expensive no no no'; cites absence of toys/mechs in last four games

  • ?

    rumor_hype: Tales of the Arabian Nights (Pedretti Gaming remake with Brian Allen) rumored as upcoming, but Kaneda expresses low confidence in Pedretti's execution capability

    low · Kaneda cites rumor but immediately questions: 'Their Funhaus remake did not do well at all. I'm a little worried. I think the reputation of quality is not there'

  • ?

    content_signal: Pinball industry consistently executes surprise reveals instead of advance reveal date announcements; Kaneda advocates for 4-week lead time with confirmed reveal date

    high · Kaneda directly criticizes 'annoying thing where you don't know the release date'; proposes 'announce the title and the moment you reveal the game should be no longer than four weeks'