Episode 997: "Kaneda Heads to JJP as Stern Stalls"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·24m 3s·analyzed·Sep 9, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.031

TL;DR

Kaneda visits JJP Avatar while lambasting Stern's X-Men pre-order strategy and industry pricing crisis.

Summary

Kaneda announces an all-expenses-paid trip to Jersey Jack Pinball to preview Avatar: The Battle for Pandora, while criticizing Stern Pinball for withholding X-Men gameplay footage despite taking pre-orders. He argues that modern pinball pricing ($12,000–$15,000) is unsustainable, questions the value proposition of limited editions, and expresses broader skepticism about nostalgia-driven collecting culture. Kaneda calls for transparent gameplay previews before purchase and predicts market consolidation as buyers reach saturation.

Key Claims

Stern Pinball has not streamed or shown real gameplay footage of Uncanny X-Men despite revealing it and taking LE pre-orders
high confidence · Kaneda, podcast host, directly states 'Where's the stream? Where is the actual gameplay of the Uncanny X-Men by Stern Pinball?' and 'nobody that is ordered in Uncanny X-Men LE has seen a single footage of real gameplay.'
Stern's LE-to-Premium price difference has expanded from ~$500 historically to $3,500 today, which Kaneda equates to Stern's entire machine budget
high confidence · Kaneda provides historical comparison: 'back in the day when Stern first introduced limited edition games, the price difference between the LE and the premium was around $500. Nowadays... the difference is $3,500.'
James Bond LE machines are depreciating rapidly—a $13,000+ machine with topper sold for ~$9,700 in ~1 year, a $4,300 loss
medium confidence · Kaneda cites secondary market example: 'A James Bond LE, which is $13,000 with a topper, which was $1,000, is now selling for like $9,700. That's a $4,300 loss.'
Jersey Jack's Avatar has six flippers, bioluminescent lighting, two lower playfields, and one upper playfield
high confidence · Kaneda states confirmed specs: 'we know it's got six flippers. We know it's got bioluminescent lighting. We know it's got two lower playfields. I think it has one upper playfield.'
Kiefer is coding Avatar and has had issues with game clarity and approachability in past Jersey Jack titles
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'Kiefer is coding this game, right? So I want to play this game and there not be a multiball that starts right away... Kiefer has had, I believe, some issues in making games easy to understand and instantly approachable.'
Kaneda declined to buy an X-Men LE after seeing the invoice, despite having funds available, citing principle and opportunity cost
high confidence · Kaneda describes personal decision: 'I opened up my email and I saw an invoice... $12,999 pay now for a single pinball experience. And I just sort of froze. It's too much money.'
There are now ~13 pinball machine manufacturers competing for buyers

Notable Quotes

“Stern Pinball is stalling on X-Men. We have seen the game. It looks cool. It's beautiful. But where's the stream? Where is the actual gameplay of the Uncanny X-Men by Stern Pinball?”
Kaneda @ ~10:30 — Core criticism: Stern is taking LE pre-orders without showing gameplay, a practice Kaneda characterizes as a 'FOMO cash grab.'
“It's too much money. You know, I've got a lot going on in my world. I've got a lot of expenses. I've got a lot of things I want to do. And I just thought about it for a minute. Imagine if I put $13,000 into a fund for my children on every single new Stern LE launch. What would make me happier in life?”
Kaneda @ ~22:00 — Reflects broader existential cost-benefit analysis: Kaneda questions whether $13k pinball purchases are the best use of discretionary income compared to charitable or family priorities.
“The entire game is there. And you even heard Jack Danger say, like, we're going to release some of this stuff as additional accessories. You can get armor that's going to look exactly the same if you powder coat it the same color.”
Kaneda @ ~16:00 — Indicates Stern is monetizing formerly-exclusive LE features as post-purchase add-ons, eroding the LE value proposition.
“I think what we need is this. I think we need a Stern Pro to be $6,000. I think a Stern Premium should be $8,500. And I think a Stern LE should be $10,500.”
Kaneda @ ~18:30 — Offers concrete pricing recommendation to Stern leadership; suggests current tiering is unsustainable.
“I think we're all starting to come out of the FOMO. I think we're all realizing we have so many great games. We don't need many more. Now there's like 13 companies making pinball machines. And I think we're gonna see more pinball companies fall like dominoes as people just get tired of it all.”
Kaneda @ ~29:00 — Predicts market consolidation and buyer fatigue; signals potential industry shake-out.
“We're still waiting for a game that gets it all right. Like a theme we want, an integration we want, mechanical magic we want, and the price is right. All of that comes together.”
Kaneda — Summarizes the core unmet market need: a release that balances theme, mechanics, code quality, and price.

Entities

Kanedaperson Jersey Jack PinballcompanyStern PinballcompanyAvatar: The Battle for PandoragameUncanny X-Mengame Jack DangerpersonKieferperson

Signals

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market_signal: Kaneda documents persistent secondary market depreciation (James Bond LE: $4,300 loss in ~1 year) and argues that $12k–$15k pricing is unsustainable. He calls for urgent price corrections and predicts buyer fatigue and market consolidation.
high · James Bond LE example; Kaneda's personal decision to decline X-Men purchase despite available funds; prediction of '13 companies making pinball machines' leading to consolidation.
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product_concern: Stern is monetizing formerly exclusive LE features (armor, shooter rods, inner art, speaker lights) as post-purchase accessories, eroding the LE-to-Premium value gap ($3,500 difference).
high · Jack Danger statement about accessory sales; Kaneda's observation that 'premiums look just as good now. The entire game is there.'
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product_strategy: Stern is taking X-Men LE pre-orders without releasing gameplay footage, relying on FOMO and visual appeal. No public streaming date announced despite Jack Danger being available.
high · 'Where's the stream? Where is the actual gameplay?' and 'nobody that is ordered in Uncanny X-Men LE has seen a single footage of real gameplay.' Kaneda notes LE availability at multiple distributors, countering scarcity narrative.
~
sentiment_shift: Kaneda documents rapid collapse in his own X-Men FOMO post-announcement; he initially planned to buy an LE but reversed after seeing the invoice and lack of gameplay. He generalizes: 'raise of hands for each and every one of you out there... how many of you... your FOMO around the Uncanny X-Men has already dissipated?'
high · Personal anecdote of declined purchase; observation that enthusiasm 'falls apart' after one week without gameplay.
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Topics

Pricing and affordability crisis in modern pinballprimaryLimited Edition vs. Premium value proposition and erosionprimaryStern's marketing strategy for X-Men: withholding gameplay, FOMO pre-salesprimaryJersey Jack Avatar preview trip and evaluation criteriaprimarySecondary market depreciation and long-term valuesecondaryContent creator independence and editorial credibilitysecondaryBroader cultural nostalgia fatigue and collecting burnoutsecondaryPredicted industry consolidation and manufacturer survivalsecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.68)— Kaneda is critical of Stern's marketing tactics, the industry's pricing trajectory, and the sustainability of the market. However, he expresses optimism about Jersey Jack's Avatar specifically and maintains a hopeful, open-minded stance. His broader tone reflects frustration and disillusionment with FOMO-driven culture and nostalgia cycles, balanced by his continued enthusiasm for quality games and his commitment to fair evaluation. The negativity is directed at systemic industry practices, not at individual games or people (except Stern's corporate strategy).

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.072

Already pulling me in, already under my skin, and I know exactly how this ends. I let you cut me open, just to watch me fade, gave up whoever you wanted me to be. Sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up. We got Stern Pinball's Uncanny X-Men last week. This week, we are going to get Jersey Jack Pinball's Avatar, The Battle for Pandora. And I'm here to tell you right now that Kaneda has booked his flight to Chicago. I have been invited by Jersey Jack Pinball. All expense paid trip up to a certain amount of money. Now, nobody told Jersey Jack that Kaneda likes to fly first class. So I'm not going to be able to fly that way. But we're going to go over to JJP. I say we're. It's going to be me and other pinball media. And we're going to get to play the game. Now, look, I know some people have been saying, like, if I go to Jersey Jack and if they introduce me to their new pinball machine, that I am going to be a shill for the game. And I just want to tell you this right now. That's not going to be the case. But also, I do find it weird that some people out there are so negative and so toxic that they want me to refuse this trip. And what? Just like slam the company and its products? I just want to say this. Each and every one of us should be in this hobby because we enjoy pinball. We enjoy every new game that comes out. And I don't mean like we like the game. I just mean that we enjoy the moment that a new pinball machine comes into the world because it gives us something new to talk about. It gives us a new game that maybe we might buy it. Maybe we won't. Maybe we love it. Maybe we hate it. But it gives us a new reason to connect with each other. And that's why a new pinball week is exciting for everybody. We also get to see what these companies for this much money have put into a machine. Now we know, you know, I know that Jersey Jack knows they need to load this game up. They've had like two to three games in a row where we did not see $12,000 to $15,000 of a magical pinball experience. And so Avatar, the battle for Pandora, we know it's got six flippers. We know it's got bioluminescent lighting. We know it's got two lower playfields. I think it has one upper play field. It's going to have a lot going on. Now, look, will the sum of the parts equal a magical pinball experience? That is what I'm going to find out on Friday. And look, we all know that a first impression standing over a brand new pinball machine is going to be more positive than negative. And it's easy to sit back and on the internet, see something, complain about something, and never engage with something. So I do think this is a smart move by Jersey Jack Pinball to invite people over there to play the game. Because guess which company didn't invite people over to play the game the day after they revealed it? Stern Pinball. I want to talk about that for a minute because I think Stern Pinball is stalling on X-Men. We have seen the game. It looks cool. It's beautiful. But where's the stream? Where is the actual gameplay of the uncanny X-Men by Stern Pinball? It really rubs me the wrong way, that clearly Stern is trying to lock in as many LE orders of this game as they possibly can. And nobody, and I mean this, nobody that is ordered in Uncanny X-Men LE has seen a single footage of real gameplay. Nobody has seen what the code is like, what the callouts are like, what the gameplay is like, and it's a radically new design from Stern Pinball. And so this sort of rubs me the wrong way because as cool as it is, and it is a unique, creative, cool new layout for Stern Pinball, it's an extreme departure from the normal layouts that each and every one of us are used to. And look, there's a reason why most pinball machines are not laid out this way. It might not be as fun as you think. The code might not be nearly far enough along for you to want to own the game right now. And yet they want to sell you the game right now. It's just weird to me too, because it's like Jack Danger is the world's greatest pinball streamer. This is his game. They revealed this game to the world last Wednesday. There's not even on the books this week, a date by which Stern Pinball is going to stream X-Men. And yet they will take your money. And we know on Thursday, we are going to see Jersey Jack Pinball's avatar. So it's really not even a good week to stream X-Men. And maybe they might let Jersey Jack have the spotlight this week. But again, another sort of quick FOMO cash grab move by Stern Pinball. And I looked around and I'm here to tell you right now, it's not sold out. Some distributors are sold out, but there are many distros and dealers that still have an LE new in box that you can get. Even with all the creativity, all the uniqueness, it just does feel like FOMO, right? The need to get it right away It gone right And we all know this Do you really think X at is ever going to be worth anywhere near that a year from now I just saw a James Bond LE People swear by James Bond. It's one of Stern's best ever. A James Bond LE, which is $13,000 with a topper, which was $1,000, is now selling for like $9,700. that's a $4,300 loss on a James Bond game in just what a little over a year maybe it's a little bit more than that and I just don't understand right as much as I want to welcome all of these new games with open arms the price continues to hang over this entire hobby like a dark cloud and nobody's addressing it. Nobody's lowered price. And so as I get ready to go to Jersey Jack, it is easily going to be a tall order for them to deliver a game that when you see it, and when you play it, and when you experience it, it has to blow us away to write a check for $12,000 for the mass-produced version of the game. And it really has to be something truly special that is unlike any other pinball experience we have ever had to warrant going in on a $15,000 collector's edition of the game. Here's the problem they're going to have is we both know that the $15,000 version of the game will pretty much be exactly the same gameplay experience. The lighting will be the same. The shot layout will be the same. The artwork will be similar enough. Maybe they do it differently this time because I don't think they're gonna be using any of that gold sparkle, which has been the traditional difference between the CE and the LE or Platinum. But is there gonna be $3,000 difference between those two games? Now, the good news, if you spend $15,000 on a Jersey Jack or even $12,000, your game is going to come with everything you're really ever going to want for it. It's going to come with the toppers. It's going to come with inner art blades. And now it's even going to come with rad cows on the Platinum Edition of the game. I can't say the same for Stern. And what's crazy about Stern, do you guys know this? When Stern first introduced limited edition games, and by that, you know, they're limited edition games back in the day, had different artwork, different trans lights, like a real mirrored back glass trans light. It had differences, right? And they only made 500. Do you know back in the day when Stern first introduced limited edition games, the price difference between the LE and the premium was around $500. Nowadays, the price difference between the LE and the premium, because the map pricing on a premium is $9,500, the difference is $3,500. This is stupid, right? It just doesn't make any sense. $3,500, ladies and gentlemen, is the entire bomb of what Stern is putting into their machines. And that's the other issue too. And that's why I think all these LEs with Stern are just kind of dying. It's just all these LEs are kind of pointless because the premiums look just as good now. The entire game is there. And you even heard Jack Danger say, like, we're going to release some of this stuff as additional accessories. You can get armor that's going to look exactly the same if you powder coat it the same color. You can get the shooter rod, the inner art decals. You can get the speaker lights, all the stuff you can get additionally. And yeah, even though it's not an LE, you can still add all this stuff. I just think it's all kind of jump the shark. I think what we need is this. I think we need a Stern Pro to be $6,000. I think a Stern Premium should be $8,500. And I think a Stern LE should be $10,500. I think that is the sweet spot. First-turn pinball, if they keep doing it like this, I'm telling you there's gonna be an overall decline in who buys their products, and the entire pinball market is just gonna keep collapsing slowly. People are out of room. You can see it. And if people wanna go get the new game, they gotta free up space with the old game. And nobody wants to continue to lose so much money on every single game. Now, when we go over to Jersey Jack Pinball, a similar issue is happening. If they think they're going to sell 1,000 avatars, I don't care how much this game glows. I don't care how cool the topper is. This is not a theme everybody's been waiting for. I don't even know how it's humanly possible for them to sell 1,000 CEs at $15,000 a pop. I think what needs to happen is this. Jersey Jack needs to go back and make the entry level of the game somewhere around $10,500 and the collector's edition $13,000. Make it an even $13,000 and like $10,500 for the regular edition of the game. And I think you'll see such a different response to everything both of these companies are doing. And raise of hands for each and every one of you out there. How many of you, right? It's only been less than a week. How many of you, your FOMO around the uncanny X-Men has already dissipated? How many of you on launch day were giddy like schoolgirls, right? We were just all going crazy. We were all running at it. We were all like, Stern's back. The second coming of Pinball is here And if you just wait and see you wait a week what happens You know you been staring at the game but you haven seen any gameplay and now all of a sudden your enthusiasm for it sort of falls apart a little bit and I tell you where it fell apart for me. I was going to grab an LE and offer it up to one of my Canada Club members because I thought the game would easily sell out, and an interesting thing happened. I had a distributor, they held me an edition of the game, and they sent me an invoice for the game because this is how it normally works. I would buy the game, and then I would do my Kaneda Club sort of raffle to get an LE spot. It was so much fun when I would do that. And I did it multiple times in the past. And two things happened. One, I realized that they were not sold out. So nobody would really want to win a Kaneda raffle for a chance to get an LE when the LEs are not even hard to get. And the other thing that happened was this. I opened up my email and I saw an invoice and there was just something about seeing that invoice before even seeing any gameplay, before even knowing if the game's code is good or the magic is there and this new sort of layout is going to be entertaining. I saw this invoice for $12,999 pay now for a single pinball experience. And I just sort of froze. It's too much money. You know, I've got a lot going on in my world. I've got a lot of expenses. I've got a lot of things I want to do. And I just thought about it for a minute. Imagine if I put $13,000 into a fund for my children on every single new Stern LE launch. What would make me happier in life? I have a pinball machine I love. I'm definitely going to add another pinball machine or two to the mix. But why would I spend this much money on something that I know would never bring me the level of satisfaction I would get if I use that money for a better cause? And yes, of course, I'm putting money away for my children's future. And yes, I have money in the bank. And yes, I could easily snap my fingers and buy a $13,000 pinball machine. But for me, it's just become the principle that the experience of these games, especially after you have a lineup of great machines, to go in on a new one when you already have so many great ones at these prices is really the pinch I think all of us are feeling. For some of you, it's just space, right? I mean, if you want to move X-Men in or Avatar in, you got to move something out. And if you've ever moved a Jersey Jack machine into your house, you know it's something you don't want to do many times in your life because of how heavy the damn thing is going to be. And if they attach this topper to Avatar, it looks like a huge topper on that backbox, that's going to be something you're going to really, you better have a single level entrance into your game room because it's not something you're ever going to want to go up a stair with or around a corner. But here we are, right? Here we are. This is the modern pinball world. I think each and every one of us looks at every new launch with a little bit of skepticism now because of the pricing. And we're still waiting. I mean this when I say this. We're still waiting for a game that gets it all right. Like a theme we want, an integration we want, mechanical magic we want, and the price is right. All of that comes together. You know, the other thing I've been thinking about recently, too, is like, how long will all of our nostalgia for the things we grew up with, how long will it last? You know, the thing is this, too, is like we've just been bombarded culturally with so much nostalgia and remakes. And we're going to do this and another version of that and this and more Marvel, more Star Wars, more this, more that, more everything. I think it's leading to a point in culture, and I mean this outside of pinball. I just mean culturally, I think we're all exhausted. I think we're exhausted by all of it. Like even just buying pinball machines or collecting old 80s and 90s arcade machines. I got heavily into that. I'm looking at these Neo Geo machines. I never turn them on. I'm thinking about all the stuff my brother has at his house, the Punch-Out, the Donkey Kong, the Street Fighter 2, all the energy around putting these nostalgic arcades and vids into our homes. I feel like all of that too has become tiresome. And like we all got bit by the bug years ago. We realized we could turn our homes into arcades. But in the end, I mean this, in the end, it ultimately leaves you with a little bit of a shallow feeling. And it is sort of a hollow existence to have all these things and yet nobody really to play them with. And that's what it becomes. And they will never, ever, ever give you even an ounce of the excitement you felt when you were a kid and you were young and you walked into an arcade and there that new game was and you had your pocket full of quarters. And if you were good, you could stay on the machine for as long as you played the game. As long as you could beat the other people next to you with one quarter, you could stay on Street Fighter all day long. And so that's where I think we're at. I think we're all starting to come out of the FOMO. I think we're all realizing we have so many great games. We don't need many more. Now there's like 13 companies making pinball machines. And I think we're gonna see more pinball companies fall like dominoes as people just get tired of it all Like there just too much of it And the only stuff that truly gonna succeed in finding space in our homes and in our lives is something that is truly magical. But I also do believe this. We all need to look at every new pinball game with an open mind and not be prejudiced. There are people that want me to just tear down Jersey Jack. There are people that want me to just tear down Stern. I will look at every game objectively. If I did not, if I didn't look at games objectively, I would not have Canada's Pinball Podcast. I would not have 725 subscribers. I would not have the support I have. And so for those out there, I am going to do, to the best of my ability, a fair and honest review of Avatar. I really hope I get to play the game uninterrupted for a long period of time on Friday. We are going to be there. It might be hard to do that. And yes, there's probably going to be a lot of visual wow that we experience. But I want to look for things. Here's the things I want to look for because I learned a lot after Willy Wonka. I want to see how they integrate the movies into the game. Is it even based on the movie? Are we going to see clips from the movies where the voice actors are synced up with the LCD screen itself? I want to make sure there's not too many multiballs. Kiefer is coding this game, right? So I want to play this game and there better not be a multiball that starts right away because you hit one switch. I also want to make sure when I play this game, right? I know the Avatar movies, that it talks to me. It's a movie. I want to feel like I know what character I am. Am I Jake Sully? Isn't that the name of the character? Am I leading him and his family on a mission to get the Marines out of Pandora? I bet that is the storyline. But I want to feel like I'm on a journey. I don't want to hit that start button and, like many other Jersey Jack games, be absolutely clueless what it is I'm doing. And Keith has had, I believe, some issues in making games easy to understand and instantly approachable when it comes to the Jersey Jack code. So I don't want to see like multiball craziness. I also am just so curious what Mark Seiden's philosophy is going to be when it comes to design the toys. Like when I look down at the game, is it all lighting and flippers? But is there an actual mechanism that does something that makes you go, wow. And will those mechanisms be things that will be enjoyable after you see it for like the 500th time. You know, some mechs are. Like the ring in Lord of the Rings is that. The disappearing magnet in Totem is that. Like there are certain things that just give you that satisfaction every single time. So I think it's gonna be a lot of fun. I go in Friday morning. I still have two children and a wife, so I have to help out in the house. And so I will be flying down there Friday morning. I will be spending the entire day with Jersey Jack and the crew and the media people. I'll be hanging out with them for dinner and lunch. And then I'm flying back Saturday morning. So that means there will not be a Saturday morning spectacular. But maybe we delay that to Saturday night because I think it'll be a really fun time to hang out. Everybody, thank you for being a member of Canada's Pinball Podcast. And you know me, you know me. I just wanna summarize this show. I think we all want pinball magic. We all should be shown gameplay and real streaming of a game before we spend a single penny on the product. Like that's ridiculous. Stern is stalling. Jersey Jack's going to have to put some magic in this avatar game at these prices to move units. So excited to see what they've created. We all should keep an open mind. And we all already have way too many pinball machines in our lives. These things have become so expensive. And I think we're all waking up to the reality that we're never going to be children again. We're never going to be as young as we are right now also. So we have to find that balance. How much of yesteryear do I want to shove into my current life? And maybe, just maybe, I'm good spending this much over here. And I should start spending this money on new experiences. and how many of you out there, raise of hands, how many of you out there, how many of you out there have been going to the gym more, have been eating healthier, have been taking care of yourselves more than you take care of your pinball machines? And I mean that. I wanna see each and every one of you take care of yourselves. I mean, now we live in a world where everyone's just gonna be on Ozempic in a year. Now that it's gonna become a pill and not even an injection, that's who we've become. Shortcuts to feeling good. showing me a game and asking for $13,000 without gameplay is a shortcut and it doesn't leave me feeling good so I think Stern is stalling JJP needs to bring the magic and Canada's pinball podcast will give you entertaining shows as long as I enjoy it I will do it everybody thank you for your subscription and if you didn't notice the song on the intro Linkin Park has a new lead singer. Rest in peace, Chester. This woman, Emily, is badass. I sort of love her voice. She can belt, and if you've seen her live, it's insane. Everybody, peace out. We'll talk to you soon.