Episode 903: "Last Show Before Disney!"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·27m 39s·analyzed·Jan 14, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.033

TL;DR

Kaneda warns against overpriced pinball market, praises Jaws hype, criticizes JJP code delays, analyzes $250k collection sale.

Summary

Kaneda discusses Jaws hype ahead of Stern's Monday stream with Jack Danger, criticizes Jersey Jack Pinball unfinished code across multiple titles, analyzes a major 31-machine collection sale ($250k), and examines secondary market pricing showing massive depreciation across new games—particularly Godfather, Elvira, and Pirates of the Caribbean—arguing the hobby is overpriced and urging collectors to wait rather than buy at inflated prices.

Key Claims

After Monday's Stern stream with Jack Danger, all Jaws LE units will be spoken for
medium confidence · Kaneda, opening segment on Jaws hype and stream impact
A 31-machine pinball collection sold for $250,000 as a package deal
high confidence · Kaneda citing Troy at Tilt Amusements and Pinside thread, direct reporting on collection sale
Godfather Collector's Edition lost $5,000 in value in one year (from $15,000 to $10,000)
high confidence · Kaneda analyzing secondary market prices and specific loss data
No Stern LE since 2004 has lost $3,000-$5,000 in value like recent games
medium confidence · Kaneda making historical comparison to illustrate recent market shift
Jersey Jack Pinball has not finished code updates on Guns N' Roses, Pirates of the Caribbean, and Toy Story
high confidence · Kaneda citing Pinside discussion and community feedback about unfinished games
Jaws lacks impressive mechanical toys despite the iconic theme
medium confidence · Kaneda's design analysis based on player feedback from CES and discussions
Back to the Future and The Matrix pinball games are coming this year
medium confidence · Kaneda hinting at upcoming releases in forward-looking advice to listeners
Used premium Jaws machines will be available for significantly less in six months
low confidence · Kaneda's prediction on market saturation and pricing of standard editions
Pedretti Gaming remakes will not match CGC quality, which will increase CGC remake values
low confidence · Kaneda making comparative prediction about upcoming Bally/Williams remakes
George Gomez's multiple Elvira editions caused $5,000-$10,000 depreciation for earlier buyers

Notable Quotes

“Why do you need premium run number one when the code is not even nearly done? And they're going to make this game for five freaking years and if you just wait a little bit, you know you're going to be able to get used premiums in six months for much less money.”
Kaneda @ ~11:30 — Core investment philosophy: advising patience over FOMO-driven purchases
“If I'm buying into a pinball brand and a pinball company, I feel way better about supporting Stern and buying a Stern because I know they're not going to leave me with an unfinished product.”
Kaneda @ ~24:00 — Direct comparison of manufacturer reliability and code support—key differentiator between Stern and JJP
“Buy, buy, buy as a mentality has screwed over so many people over the last two years.”
Kaneda @ ~28:30 — Central thesis of episode: market correction and buyer regret at inflated pricing
“This game is not worth $32,500 anymore. That ship has sailed two years ago.”
Kaneda @ ~48:15 — Specific critique of Pirates of the Caribbean asking prices and overvaluation
“We are not at MSRP or even close. They're going to be $2,000 cheaper. That cardboard box at JJP is worth $2,000 to $3,000.”
Kaneda @ ~55:30 — Prediction of further price drops and confidence JJP pricing strategy will adjust
“If you took my advice, what has happened? You are going to come out on top. If you buy, buy, buy everything, what's going to happen? You're going to get hurt.”
Kaneda @ ~53:00 — Core advisory stance reinforced: wait-and-see strategy outperforms aggressive buying
“This is one of the most overhyped games of all time. Yes, it's beautiful. Yes, it's deep. But it doesn't have assets from the movie. It's such a mixed bag game that is only heralded because it's rare.”
Kaneda @ ~47:00 — Critical reassessment of Pirates of the Caribbean's long-term appeal and hype-driven valuation

Entities

Kanedaperson Jack DangerpersonStern PinballcompanyJersey Jack Pinballcompany Keith ElwinpersonTroypersonGeorge Gomezperson

Signals

$
market_signal: New-in-box games consistently losing $3,000-$11,000 in value within 1-2 years; Godfather -$5,000, Foo Fighters -$4,000, James Bond -$3,000, Elvira editions -$5,000 to $11,000
high · Kaneda analyzing marketplace listings with specific price declines and historical comparisons; 'You can't name one Stern LE that came out since 2004 that has lost anywhere near $3,000 to $5,000'
?
product_concern: Jersey Jack Pinball failing to complete code updates on Guns N' Roses, Pirates of the Caribbean, and Toy Story; growing community dissent and loss of buyer confidence
high · Kaneda citing Pinside discussion thread (Panzer Freak), multiple player complaints, and direct quote: 'I'm done with Jersey Jack until they show us they're going to finish the code in their games'
~
sentiment_shift: Stark preference shift toward Stern over Jersey Jack due to code support reliability; Stern viewed as trustworthy, JJP as unreliable
high · Kaneda: 'I feel way better about supporting Stern... because I know they're not going to leave me with an unfinished product' vs. JJP's opposite pattern
?
collector_signal: Collectors increasingly pursuing first-run premiums despite incomplete code; Kaneda warns against this behavior, advising patience for price stabilization in 6+ months
medium · Kaneda observing 'premiums are the new LEs' and cautioning: 'Why do you need premium run number one when the code is not even nearly done?'
$
market_signal: Stern's multiple Elvira editions (40th Anniversary, Blood Kiss, Signature) damaged secondary market for all earlier variants; buyers now prefer cheaper newer editions, depressing all values

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.083

0:00

Shout to the heart and your two blades, darling, you give love a bad name. Welcome everybody, welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. One more show to go and then I'm taking the family to Disney. There's not going to be any more shows this week other than this one, so Kaneda, you better make it a good show. We're going to talk about Jaws, we're going to talk about how Stern Pinball is going to get the gang together Monday night and show us this game with Jack Danger. I think after that stream, all of the L.E.'s are going to be spoken for, even if the shark doesn't eat the freaking ball, people. We're going to talk about Jersey Jack Pinball. When are they going to learn their lesson and just finish this damn code in all these games and turn a corner? We're going to talk about a quarter million dollar pinball collection that went up for sale. We're going to talk about how that went down and what that means and how each and every one of us has to juggle things we own and real adult investments with toys that we buy What life means this short little time we have on this planet and let's talk a little bit about what's going on in the pinball industry around the horn how does that sound and maybe I'll do my Kaneda's collector's corner at the end as a special treat let's look at what's for sale in the world of pinball for $13,000 or more and ask ourselves do we think this is worth it is this a game I would buy at that price but before we do that I want to give a few shout outs to people who have www.willywonka.com And you like what you hear, you will get a shout out. All right, so let's start with Jaws real quick. So there's been so much debate back and forth about this game. I talked to Darren, he played the game at CES. He said he really, really liked it. He played it a lot. I've talked to other people that played the game and the game shoots just fine. It's a Keith Elwin game. The upper playfield, they said, is fun. The game is a lot of fun to flip. We knew it would be fun to flip And I think this game's got two out of three, right? It's like a meatloaf song, two out of three ain't bad. It's got an iconic theme with all of the assets. It's got a great layout, but it doesn't have great toys. It's never going to have great toys. I don't care if people try to make a shark that eats the ball, it's not gonna work. I don't care if you glue on a bunch of plastic figurines. People are gonna mod this thing So much tacky stuff into the game, but it's never going to be one of Stern Pinball's most impressive mechanical games. It's never going to be one of Keith Elwin's games in which the toys are really exciting and create a wow moment. But I think what we're going to see Monday night is this, this design team and the code working on JAWS, what they are really, really good at is creating an atmosphere with the game. The Valley Company, Subsidiary of Walter Kidde & Co., Inc., Mirco Playfields, Tim Kitzrow, Scott Danesi.

4:11

And that's the thing, right? And now I'm starting to see people act like premiums are the new LEs. Like, I gotta get in on the first run of premiums. And everybody, why? Why do you need premium run number one when the code is not even nearly done and they're We're going to make this game for five freaking years and if you just wait a little bit you know you're going to be able to get used premiums in six months for much less money. So just don't be impatient. Do you need it right now? So many of you can walk into your game room and see like 15 great titles. You don't need another one right now. I think Jaws LE is obviously the nicest looking of the packages but I just don't see it as All of these games are available for sale. It's not sold out. And have we ever seen a Keith Elwin LE not sell out? Like James Bond LE sold out faster than Jaws. So did Foo Fighters. And all of those games were $13,000. And I think that just goes to show where the market is at. And I want to congratulate each and every one of you who's just kind of waiting it out and seeing how this plays out. Alright, so I think Monday night, when Jack Danger streams it with the team, a lot of people are going to turn a corner and get more excited about the game. We will get over our anger of lack of mechs and Stern ripping us off once again with these stupid prices. Don't mistake me, people. I think all of these prices right now are inane and asinine and stupid. We are not getting our money's worth for $13,000 and all you have to do is look at the used market and everybody is getting hosed when they try to trade in any pinball machine they bought over the last two years. Whether it's Stern, Jersey Jack, American Pinball. I mean someone just went to sell their Galactic Tank Force like the deluxe edition. That was like a $9,000 game or a $9,500 game and now it's $7,000. $7,000 which means that $17,000 signature edition is freaking $10,000 more for the same exact game, the same experience. I mean come on, we can't put this much value on like tank treads and like foiled sticker decals on the armor and powder coat does not cost that much money. Alright so speaking of money Troy over at Tilt Amusements scored a huge huge huge huge deal There was a gentleman on pin side that asked a question He had 31 pinball machines and he asked everybody should I sell these individually or should I sell them as a package deal In which way will I make more money Now obviously if you sell each game individually you will make a lot more money than if you sell it individually hiah 강 얘기를 talking to ya, woop do do аб dat i the snapchat kIA Yannick Adams nick acabar The Huge Game 裡面 So look, 31 games, $250,000. Crazy, right? Crazy seeing that much money trade hands. Also even crazier that you would publicize it with YouTube videos and sharing it all across pinball media because the IRS will probably want some of that quarter million dollar deal because anything over $600, they have their finger on. And so I don't know if they're gonna come after this deal. And Troy gave an interesting thing. He said, look, when I do a deal like this, I want to make 20% back on my investment. Now that's not a bad investment, right? In S&P 500 fund, you're looking at about 10% return is a good return. And over the years, like a pinball investment has outpaced the markets. Like how many of you out there got way more than 10 to 20% returns on your Stern machines when you bought LEs at the right prices? So, will Troy get his 20%? You know, we're about to see 31 really nice games hit the market. Some of them have already sold. There were games like Big Bang Bar. There was like a Deadpool LE. There's a lot of nice games in that collection. There's an Indiana Jones, I believe, with like Lior Mauds. Like a lot of stuff is in there. So super exciting. I shared the video of that deal on my Facebook page. If you haven't seen it, go check it out. And I know this opens up the debate. Are we silly for investing this much money in pinball machines? And each and every one of us, our financial situations are different. I have much more money in savings and in my portfolio than I do in pinball machines. You know, it's crazy. I don't even have a lot of stuff. Like I don't have a lot of games or pinball machines, but I still have a lot of money tied up in things. For example, I've got over $100,000 tied up in a single car. Gary Vayda, mont 개�Sw politicians, Jeff Ohren어야 uyüç egeriä lö systems eyebrows 늂 마uf아 basınhi bank hamburger varmışın. 70 in advance bes Umrenause ek kendisi kendi bankesini nah graduate longer is Sch manifest. des ц ARора al punca par at 써� Pronounce comprom走 not The best pinball game you can have is this. Memories, experiences, all the thrills of having that dodge demon. And the same is true with pinball. The reason you have money in it is every day you get to wake up and it makes you happy. It gives you an experience. It's fun. It's joy in your life. And just owning stocks, man, that doesn't really make you happy. Of course people are happy when they make money, but there's no journey there. There's no experience. Get a moll petitön. uta's How much is your car worth? How much are your arcade machines worth? So if I think about how much my arcade machines are worth right now, I've got a Guns N' Roses CE Nuen box. It's about $12,500. Now that thing used to be worth like 20 grand. Now it's worth about 12,500. I got a Batman SLE easily worth $30,000 on the current market. Just there alone, $42,000. And then I've got a few Neo Geo cabinets that are worth about The Valley Company, Subsidiary of Walter Kidde & Co., Inc., Mirco Playfields, Tim Kitzrow, Scott Danesi.

12:05

All right, so what else is going on in the world of pinball? I said, is Jersey Jack pinball going to learn a lesson? And once again, I was on pin side this morning and that damn Panzer Freak thread, I mean, I'm glad he started it. Where is the JJP code? When is Jersey Jack Pinball going to finish the code on games? How many times do we have to ask this question? When will Jersey Jack Pinball go back and revisit Guns N' Roses? When will they finish Pirates of the Caribbean? And I'm seeing more and more people say, I'm done with Jersey Jack until they show us they're going to finish the code in their games. And I just don't understand. It is like January of 2024. What have they been doing? Like why can't they hire a few more software people to go through all of the feedback they've been getting and the fans of these games have been giving them so much great feedback, but you shouldn't even need to rely on the fans. They should simply want to finish the games they started and they don't. And I think there is a growing dissent with Jersey Jack Pinball that continues to be a dark cloud over this company. And if I had one wish for Jersey Jack, just finish these games. Just finish Pirates, finish Guns N' Roses. What is taking so long? Toy Story could use a little mini wizard mode or two Why can you go back and put extra polish on the games And your main competitor Stern Pinball all they ever do is continue to work on their games until they make them perfect So if I'm buying into a pinball brand and a pinball company, I feel way better about supporting Stern and buying a Stern because I know they're not going to leave me with an unfinished product. I know they're not going to leave us with like an imbalanced rule set. I know they're not going to stop before the job is done. And they're not going to stop on James Bond. They didn't stop on Batman. They're not going to stop on Jaws. But Jersey Jack is the complete opposite. They stop. This is one of the reasons why people leave Jersey Jack in the rear view mirror. Now you want to talk about losing money on games, ladies and gentlemen? One year ago in March, Godfather came out. A collector's edition was $15,000. You know what one is listed for right now on the marketplace and it didn't even sell? $10,000. So you just lost $5,000 on a Godfather collector's edition. I don't know what to tell you. Buy Buy Buy as a mentality has screwed over so many people over the last two years. How can anybody run at these games new in box seeing this stuff? Foo Fighters has lost almost $4,000 LE. James Bond LE is another one over $3,000 in losses. Godfather $5,000. I mean if the game is great, you're going to lose $3,000. If the game is mediocre, you're going to lose $5,000. What happened to pinball? In the 10 years I've been covering this hobby, you can't name one Stern LE that came out since 2004 that has lost anywhere near $3,000 to $5,000. You can't even name one. Bet Zeppelin didn't lose that much, Mustang didn't lose, Mustang went up now, heck even WWE did not lose that much money and if there isn't any greater sign that this hobby is so over priced right now which company is going to learn their lesson? And lower prices, something has got to give because it's just not sustainable, there are no way people are going to absorb these losses for much longer. Alright everybody, what else is going on in pinball, let's go to Kaneda's collector's I'm going to leave this corner for you before I head to Disney. Now speaking of prices, I put in games that are over $13,000 and let's just read out what people are asking for stuff. A Pirates of the Caribbean LE for $19,975. No thank you. I'm not going anywhere near Pirates of the Caribbean until they finish the code. I also think the hype on Pirates is dead. I think everyone with one listed right now is listing it for about $4,000 to $5,000 more than people want to spend on it. I'm not seeing any of these games sell for the current asking prices. We got a Godzilla Ellie for $16,000. Nope, I wouldn't do that. That game's going to slide back down to around $13,000 real soon. Here's one, Elvira House of Horrors 40th Anniversary Edition in a box for $16,500. Wow! Wow, remember when these games were selling for $25,000? That's an $8,500 loss if you bought this game for $25,000. And because of the Blood Kiss edition, it's like, I don't know, the nicer edition is out. But there are only 199 40th anniversary editions. I kind of like the 40th even more than the Blood Kiss. I like having more color on the game, but, but, there's a big but. Stern put a lot of sparkle even on the playfield with the Blood Kiss edition. I hear from people that it's actually much more stunning than the 40th. So I think Elvira has become this weird game where like there's so many variations now nobody knows what to expect. So here's what's crazy. There is a restored Indiana Jones for $1675, right? And then right below it, a collector's quality Indiana Jones for $25,000. Why don't you spend $25,000 on an Indiana Jones game? That is crazy. No way. No way is it worth that. There's just too many out there. If you're going to spend $25,000, it has to be on a game where there's like a limited amount because you could take any Indiana Jones and turn it into a collector's quality game. And so I just saw like someone is selling an Indiana Jones new old stock playfield for For over $5,000 for just the playfield because it's been clear-coded by Kruseman and I get it he does amazing work but over $5,000 just for the playfield? That's insanity! Here's a Star Wars LE for $13,300. Nope, that game is a dud. I wouldn't go near Star Wars. Another Medieval Madness for $21,000. The Royal Edition. I wouldn't go anywhere near that. With all these Bally Williams remakes coming people, we don't know. We don't know if it's going to be Twilight Zone or Indiana Jones. I kind of would just hit pause right now. Now what I do know is this, Pedretti Gaming is never going to make a game as nice as CGC. My prediction is this, all the CGC remakes are going to go up in value because once these Pedretti games come out and the quality is not there, I think it's going to be weird, right? We're going to have two different companies making Bally Williams remakes but the one The game is being sold for $15,000. This game is being sold for $5,000 more than another Godfather CE. We got a few big Lebowski's around $15,000. I don't know why anyone would pay over for a big Lebowski. You can still order one today. So why would you spend 15,500 when you could spend 13,500 and just get it when it's made? I just would not spend over on this game. Here's another Elvira House of Horrors for $15,000. I still feel so bad for these guys. These guys are getting hosed. Like this game again used to be easily like $18,000 to $20,000. Here's a Supreme for $60,000. I mean, come on. The only person that's gonna buy a Supreme for $60,000 is some crazy rich like Supreme collector. I don't know. I feel like even the market on that kind of stuff is starting to cool down a little bit. Oh, I'm looking to see if there's anything else interesting here. Here's one that's interesting. New in box, a Rick and Morty Bloodsucker Edition. Brand new butter cabinet Wow Like somebody bought a Rick and Morty with a butter cabinet and never opened it up That crazy Now look the price is also crazy I think I spent on my Rick and Morty with butter cabinet I think it was around like $9,500. This person wants $15,000 for a spooky pinball machine. I do think you need to have your head examined if you buy a Rick and Morty for $15,000. Here's another Elvira House of Horrors for $22,000. I mean, again, like, how is somebody selling an Elvira for $22,000 when we can go up the page and see one for $6,000 less? Another Elvira New Inbox for $19,500. Another Elvira Signature Edition for $19,500. See George Gomez needs to go here and realize what he did. Every single Elvira that's listed for sale, Stern Pinball is the reason why these guys And I'm not saying that all of these guys are cutting bait on these games. They screwed over all of these gentlemen. Everybody who's selling their Elvira, their signature edition, their 40th, they all lost about $5,000 to $8,000, maybe $10,000 in value because Stern made a nicer version for $13,000. I mean, come on, George. I love you, Mr. Gomez, but don't act confused as to why people are pissed off about what you did. And not only that, people don't even want these games. All of these games now because the nicer version is the cheapest version of the LE. Here's a Pirates of the Caribbean CE for $32.5. All right, let me just say this for a minute. All of you Pirates of the Caribbean people, COVID is over. COVID only exists in the world of people who own Pirates of the Caribbean. This game is not worth $32.5 anymore. That ship has sailed two years ago. I have not seen a Pirates of the Caribbean sell for anywhere north of $30,000 any time in the last year. I know that you want to stick to your guns, but here's the other part. We know you bought your game for $12,500. You're not going to make a $20,000 profit on the game anymore. And you know what's interesting is this. We all now know that Jersey Jack is never going to make this game again, and that hasn't sent the price north. And the reason why is this. This is one of the most overhyped games of all time. Yes, it's beautiful. Yes, it's deep. But it doesn't have assets from the movie. It's such a mixed bag game that is only heralded because it's rare. That's it. When this game was readily available, nobody really wanted it. And maybe the same is going to happen to Elton John. Who knows? But again, I just don't think this game like speaks to people, especially if you love Pirates Broadcasting System, Habits of the Caribbean made exciting You have someone who's selling one for $32,500 and then right below it there's one for like $26,000. Okay, so what world are these people living in where you're trying to sell the same exact game for $6,000 more than someone who's selling the same exact game as you? Six grand more, you could get a freaking Stern Pro. It's like I don't understand this. Like do people not want to sell their machines? Are they not motivated buyers? I mean look at this. There's another Elvira 40th. Are you waiting for it? For $14,000! $14,000! That's an $11,000 loss if you bought it for $25,000. Look, I could go on and on and on with this, but I'm not. I think we're all seeing the writing on the wall. New in box games are losing more value than they've ever lost before. There's a lot of delusional sellers out there who think COVID is still going on. And I think it's the greatest time to wait and see people because if you knew what I knew, that's going to be in Back to the Future, going to be in The Matrix, going to be in games that come out this year. Don't waste your time throwing money at these overpriced used games. The future of pinball is going to be really interesting. At these prices, these companies are going to have to release masterpieces and if they don't, that's good news for each and every one of us Because then we can march in and let the initial buyer take the $3,000 to $5,000 hit on the game and then you could own that Godfather. I mean my poor friend Derek, I told him not to buy Godfather Ellie. He paid $12,000 plus $600 in shipping and now the CE is worth $10,000. He just lost $5,000 on his game. The First Class Plane Ticket to New York Eating at Michelin Star Restaurants Every Night Godfather Pinball does not create an experience that is worth losing $3,000-$5,000 in a year. We are all waking up people. Kaneda's Pinball Podcast has been saying wait and see. And if you took my advice, what has happened? You are going to come out on top. If you buy, buy, buy everything, what's going to happen? Late UNITED actually had a reason not to do project in order to make streaming Wanke ya you back but he's broken the code so Xузo This tooth hang it D fin We are at MSRP or even close. They're going to be $2,000. Knock it off. That cardboard box at JJP is worth $2,000 to $3,000. I can't wait to see it. Everybody, no shows for a week. I hope you enjoyed this show. I had a lot of energy. I had a lot of excitement doing it. And we will be back. I'm going to be in Disney with Killian and Brenda this Monday through Friday. And I don't want to be making podcasts. I want to be very present and enjoy the experience with my family. So I hope you stick around and don't cancel your subscription. We're gonna be back with a lot of shows. I might do a few Facebook Lives to talk about the Stern stream and stuff like that, but no podcast for a week because I'm not lugging this equipment down to Florida. Everybody, thank you for being a club member. We'll talk to you soon. Take it away, Jon Bon Jovi.