Episode 1191: "The Real Anxious People Are...The Scalpers!"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·20m 42s·analyzed·Feb 23, 2026

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.033

TL;DR

Kaneda predicts Pokemon LE secondary market collapse as scalpers flood market simultaneously.

Summary

Kaneda discusses the emerging secondary market dynamics for high-demand pinball titles (Beetlejuice, Pokemon LE, Winchester), predicting that oversupply of scalpers will eventually depress secondary market prices. He argues that strong secondhand demand reflects game quality and healthy market enthusiasm, contrasting with previous years of inventory sitting and depreciation. The episode also covers rumors about Barrels of Fun's next titles—potentially Rocky, Never Ending Story, or Big Trouble in Little China—and speculation on how Stern will differentiate the upcoming Transformers LE releases.

Key Claims

All 750 Pokemon LEs will be manufactured by April, forcing scalpers to either take delivery or sell beforehand
high confidence · Kaneda directly states: 'All 750 will be made by April. And so when they're all out there, what's going to happen is this. It's going to force the hand of all these scalpers'
Pokemon LE secondary market will settle significantly below initial $20,000 asking prices, likely closer to $1,000–$2,000 over MSRP, because too many scalpers will attempt to sell simultaneously
high confidence · Kaneda: 'I think too many people are going to ask for 20. They're not going to get it... Once you see like five for sale ads at 20, no one's going to move at it'
People buying Pokemon LE who don't genuinely want the theme are speculative scalpers, not fans; this was Kaneda's fear about Pokemon as a theme
high confidence · 'And this was my fear about Pokemon as a theme is a lot of people who grab them are not the Pokemon fans. It is the pinball Ellie buyer who's been buying all these years'
Rocky IV would be a better pinball theme than Rocky I because of pacing, soundtrack ('No Easy Way Out'), and visual potential (Lamborghini, Drago killing Apollo Creed scenes)
medium confidence · Kaneda opinion: 'The movie to make... with the better soundtrack, the better energy, the better theme for pinball is Rocky IV'
Barrels of Fun may have hired the homebrew Big Trouble in Little China designer; also rumored Carl D'Angelo was working on a BTILC homebrew before Winchester assignment
low confidence · Kaneda: 'I heard that he has hired the gentleman who made the homebrew version of Big Trouble in Little China... I'm not sure if this is true'
Stern is likely planning two separate Transformers LE editions (Autobot and Decepticon, or Optimus Prime and Megatron variations), each limited to 500 units
medium confidence · Kaneda prediction: 'I fully expect 500 LEs of Autobot Edition and 500 LEs for the Decepticon Edition'
Pirates of the Caribbean Collector's Edition remains unsold at $30,000–$40,000 prices because multiple units (five+) are always available for sale, removing perceived scarcity despite actual rarity

Notable Quotes

“The real anxious people are...the scalpers! Even though they know they're going to make money, they don't want it.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Core thesis: scalpers are now experiencing anxiety due to market saturation; this is the emotional hook of the episode title
“When you spend $25,000 on a stern and you get delivery of that game and you unbox your Pokemon Ali that you spent $25,000 on, there's no way it's going to look like a $25,000 pin. It's going to look like the $13,000 game that it is.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Direct critique of secondary market pricing inflation; argues visual/build quality does not justify markup
“It's like dating a girl that's got a lot of money, but she's annoying. Like it's annoying you that you don't have the ability like you used to, to scalp these things and flip these things easily.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Metaphorical commentary on scalpers' frustration; implies Robin (presumed Stern exec) has made flipping harder
“The last four years, it's been the opposite. Everything's been losing money. Everything's tanking. Nobody wants any of this stuff. Everybody's sitting on inventory. Why would we want more of that?”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Frames strong secondary market demand as positive market health signal compared to recent stagnation
“If you told me five years ago people would be spending instantly $25,000 for a chance to get a Pokemon LE spot of which there's going to be 750 games, I would have called you crazy.”
Kaneda @ late-episode — Acknowledges unprecedented pricing/demand surge; contextualizes 750-unit production against $25k secondary asking prices
“For the first time, and I've been covering this hobby for 13 years, for the first time in the 13 years I've been covering pinball, there is a lot more to be excited about.”
Kaneda @ late-episode — Positions 2025 as a historical inflection point for pinball content/game pipeline
“I don't think you're going to sell like a thousand of them, not with Goonies around the corner, not with Back to the Future, not with Transformers.”

Entities

Kanedaperson Barrels of Funcompany David Van Nessperson Carl D'Angeloperson Christopher Franchiperson Zombie Yetiperson

Signals

~
sentiment_shift: Kaneda observes community fatigue around secondary market investment discussion; warns against approach that treats games primarily as financial instruments rather than playthings
high · Kaneda: 'I know for a lot of you, the fatigue around the investment discussion is real... if we approach too much of it like this, it's gonna collapse the secondhand value of a lot of these games.'
?
competitive_signal: Never Ending Story (if announced by Barrels) faces severe commercial headwinds from simultaneous releases of Goonies, Back to the Future, Transformers, Sonic, and Gremlins; niche theme appeal vs. blockbuster competition
medium · Kaneda: 'I don't think you're going to sell like a thousand of them, not with Goonies around the corner, not with Back to the Future, not with Transformers'
?
design_philosophy: Kaneda advocates for collaborative design (Spooky/Barrels model) over siloed individual designer approach; believes collaborative iteration improves final quality
medium · Kaneda: 'Much like Spooky, they collaborate... it's gonna be a collaborative effort to make the game as great as it can be. That's the way it should be.'
?
event_signal: Pinball Expo is predicted venue for Barrels of Fun's next game announcement (historical precedent: Winchester announced there)
medium · Kaneda: 'I expect to see maybe, just maybe, the next game to be announced at Pinball Expo. That is where they announced Winchester's Mystery House to the world for the first time.'
$
market_signal: Strong secondary market demand for Beetlejuice, Winchester, and Pokemon LE reflects genuine game quality and healthy enthusiast market, contrasting with prior 4 years of inventory depreciation

Topics

Secondary market dynamics and scalpingprimaryPokemon LE pricing and supply forecastingprimaryBarrels of Fun game rumors and production roadmapprimary2025 pinball title pipeline and competitive positioningprimaryStern Transformers LE strategy and differentiationsecondaryMarket health and collector enthusiasmsecondaryCollaborative vs. siloed design philosophiesmentionedScarcity psychology and perceived vs. actual availabilitysecondary

Sentiment

positive(0.72)— Kaneda is enthusiastic about the 2025 pinball pipeline and strong secondary market demand as health signals, but critical of scalper behavior, unsustainable pricing, and cosmetic differentiation gaps between LE/Premium/Pro. He advocates for patience and predicts correction, viewing market saturation as ultimately beneficial for genuine collectors.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.062

You in the jungle, baby! Wake up! Time to die! Welcome everybody to the world's number one free market pinball podcast. Well, it's not free, it's $5 to get through the door. It's a snowy, blizzard-y day here in Rowaden, Connecticut, and I'm happy to do a show about what's happening in our favorite hobby, pinball. A lot of discussion around these Beetlejuice games, Pokemon games, Winchester games, a lot of hot games, and the year has just begun. It is going to be, as I've been saying, the best year in pinball maybe ever. Back to the future. Sonic, we've got Goonies, we've got Beetlejuice, we've got Transformers, We've got Pokemon. It's like four years of almost nothing big. And now it all hits at once. Harry Potter. Remember when we used to say Harry Potter was like never going to happen because J.K. Rowling doesn't want these games out in seedy bars. And here we are. Thousands of people are going to be playing Harry Potter pinball. And so what is really the mood and the climate right now in the hobby? It's getting a little crazy. I know for a lot of you, the fatigue around the investment discussion is real. And I do agree. There's going to come a time now where we're just tired of this because the outcome of it, if we keep focusing so much solely on the price of these games and how much can you flip them for? And I don't mean like flipping like playing. I mean, like how much money can you make on top of the MSRP? if we approach too much of it like this, it's gonna collapse the secondhand value of a lot of these games. And I'm looking at this like Beetlejuice spot. There was a game from Pinball at the Beach with like 500 plays and someone puts it up for sale for $16,000 or best offer. It's a show game. It's been played on location. And the game new was $9,999. $299 and so that's a pretty good profit for a game that's been on location 500 plays it's out of the box and this person wants 6,000 or best offer over for the game and a lot of downvotes and here's the thing I've noticed this lately this is the problem with everybody out there who's buying stuff that they don't really want. If you're buying these things to speculate on them and make money, I'm not saying you're not gonna get your money back. You are. Like anyone who ever spends 10 grand on a Beetlejuice or 13 on a Pokemon Ali, or what was it, like 12 on a Winchester, you're never gonna lose a penny. But if you're in it to scalp it and flip it, you wanna get that deal done sometime soon because I'll tell you what I'm noticing. And I have about five dudes who hit me up this weekend. Hey, Kaneda, if you can get me $20,000 for Pokemon LE, I'll take it. Okay, that's just like five people emailing me. There's probably another 45 individuals with the same exact agenda. Once they start to see these games go, they're gonna wanna ride that gravy train and also cash out because they don't really want Pokemon. And this was my fear about Pokemon as a theme is a lot of people who grab them are not the Pokemon fans. It is the pinball Ellie buyer who's been buying all these years. So they have the relationship with the dealer and the distro. And so they were able to get one. And now they know that what they got, even though they don't want it badly, they can make some money off of. But I think the market on it's going to get real interesting in March because when they make all 750, this isn't like Beetlejuice where it's a slow make or Winchester where they're just trickling these games out. All 750 will be made by April. And so when they're all out there, what's going to happen is this. It's going to force the hand of all these scalpers who are bluffing because then they're going to have to take delivery. once that happens and we haven't seen this happen on a stern le in a really long time you need to get this game sold if you're scalping it before delivery you do because nobody's going to want to pay for the shipping and have the game sitting in their home and then you have to organize shipping again when you find a buyer now some of you out there you might have like an environment where it's easy to do that. But most people that are looking for a quick buck, they wanna get the deal done. They even wanna get it done before they even send the final payment for the game over to the dealer or the distro But here what I think is going to happen There going to be too many people trying to scalp this machine at the same exact time And that's good news for a lot of you out there who really want a Pokemon LE because that is absolutely going to drive the price down. Now, when I go on to Pinside, there are delusional people that think Pokemon LE will settle somewhere between 1 to 2,000 over MSRP. No way. I think where this game is going to settle, I think too many people are going to ask for 20. They're not going to get it. Because here's the thing. Once you see like five for sale ads at 20, no one's going to move at it because you're going to just feel like the game's available. And it's weird the way this hobby works. Even though there's only 750, the moment there's like five available for sale, for some reason it just doesn't feel scarce anymore. It feels like I could get it. It's like when you go on the marketplace, another game that's super expensive, but there's always like five for sale. And to me, just having five of them, even though there's not many in the world, is the reason why none of them are moving anymore. And that is Pirates of the Caribbean Collector's Edition. Go on the marketplace right now. There's always like five for sale and they're always obnoxiously priced between like 30 and $40,000. but nobody wants them because it just feels like, well, it's one of five. Like I don't need to move now. There's a decent amount of inventory available at that price. Because once you start asking even $20,000 for a stern, this is the part. I mean, I know it's Pokemon, but it's still a stern, man. There's no rad cows on the decals on the cabin. It's still a stern machine. You know, when you spend $25,000 on a stern and you get delivery of that game and you unbox your Pokemon Ali that you spent $25,000 on, there's no way it's going to look like a $25,000 pin. It's going to look like the $13,000 game that it is. In fact, it's probably going to look more like an $8,000 game when you put it next to a $12,000 Harry Potter. So a lot of this FOMO, a lot of this impatience, and I think a lot of people are going to try to sell these games at the exact same time. So my advice to you now, because you missed the initial thing, you know, wait and see does not work on a hot title like this. You missed the initial wave. Now you really got to be patient. Now you got to wait it out. And here's what's fun. You know who's feeling the anxiety now? It's the scalpers, even though they know they're going to make money. They don't want it. And when you have something you don't want, it doesn't matter how much potential money you might make on it. you want it gone. It's like dating a girl that's got a lot of money, but she's annoying. Like it's annoying you that you don't have the ability like you used to, to scalp these things and flip these things easily because of how hard Robin has made it, how much vitriol you'll get if you try to list this thing on Facebook and then the eBay fees almost make it not worth it. So it's getting a lot harder for you to do what you normally used to do, but it is what it is, you know? And I just love it. It's like all these silly pain points around making a lot of money on a pinball machine. I keep saying this. The fact that the secondhand market is so strong on Beetlejuice, Winchester, and Pokemon is a good thing. I'd rather live in a pinball world in which there's way more demand for these games because it means the games are great, it means the themes are awesome, and it means that a lot of people are excited about pinball. The last four years, it's been the opposite. Everything's been losing money. Everything's tanking. Nobody wants any of this stuff. Everybody's sitting on inventory. Why would we want more of that? So this is a really exciting time in pinball. All right. So speaking about exciting time in pinball, there's some rumors now starting to float around the world of barrels of fun. And I see them chiming in that they are picking themes from the 1970s to sort of like the nostalgic period of the 80s and 90s. Now, what I know is this. I don't know anything officially. I don't. All I'm hearing now are rumors. People are calling me up and they're saying stuff to me. I hit up David David Van Es this week and I'm like, hey, man, people are telling me this. He's not going to comment. But here are the latest rumors. There are people saying that Barrels of Fun might be making Rocky. I'm seeing this in the thread. A lot of people posting Rocky. Now, the original Rocky movie, 1970-something, is a really interesting theme for pinball. The old Rocky machine was what, like a solid state game? We haven't had another Rocky machine. I always hear that it's impossible to get Sylvester Stallone the same way Schwarzenegger is impossible to get. So will they be able to get Sylvester into the game? And will they get all the assets, if you ask me? I wouldn't do Rocky 1. I know that the classic movie but you got to remember Rocky I is a slow slow drama There not a lot of excitement in the movie It a drama that builds to the end of it But there's only really what? Like one real boxing match in it? Two, if that? The movie to make, and you know how I feel, with the better soundtrack, the better energy, the better theme for pinball is Rocky IV. So if you're gonna make any Rocky into a pinball machine, Rocky 4 is the way to go. You think about the screen Barrels has in their machine. You know, they've got the screen in the back of the game. That should be the rear view mirror of Rocky's Lamborghini. And when the movie starts playing No Easy Way Out and he's driving to that song and you've got the clips happening in the rear view mirror of Drago killing Apollo Creed, that is a take my money now moment. If you make Rocky 1, it's just too slow and that's Kaneda's honest opinion the same way I feel that Transformers the movie is a way better way to go than just G1 Transformers seasons because it's just so much more exciting everything is in it and the soundtrack alone would be a take my money now moment all right so we're hearing about Rocky then the other theme we've heard for a while And this is like one that has everybody divided. I fall into the camp of I don't want this as a theme in pinball. I get that it was a popular movie, but it was kind of like a niche movie, a lot like Labyrinth. And that is the never ending story. It just feels like David likes this kind of stuff. And that's why that rumor is carrying a lot of weight. And so I think we might be going from Winchester to the never ending story. The problem with Neverending Story, I don't think you're going to sell like a thousand of them, not with Goonies around the corner, not with Back to the Future, not with Transformers, because that's the thing, too. It's like David's getting ready to bring out a nostalgic 80s movie. He's just going to go up against the fact that Back to the Future is coming. We got Goonies. We know we got Gremlins a year later. Sonic is not 80s, but it's early 90s. I put like that period of like 88 to 92, almost as like one of the sweetest spots in all of cultural history and nostalgia. So Sonic is coming out and we know that this company likes to release stuff a little bit early not to get lost in the mix. Now, the other rumor I'm hearing is this, that he has hired the gentleman who made the homebrew version of Big Trouble in Little China. You know how I feel. There may not be another Take My Money Now theme more than that movie. I'm not sure if this is true or not, but here's the thing. If he hired this gentleman, a few things. They need to get Franchi on the art package. I'm sorry, Brian Allen. It's just like you need to go with the iconic look of the characters. Okay, the other thing, he's not going to get Franchi, but you could get someone similar to Franchi to do the artwork. The other thing is, I don't think the homebrew game is good enough. It's just not. Like, it's a really neat homebrew project, but there's not enough in that machine mechanically that deserves to be made into a game right now. It's relying a lot on the clips from the movie, but mechanically, there's so much more you could do with Big Trouble in Little China that's not in that game mechanically. mechanically so I do think if barrels does have the rights to make this movie that they are going to go off and make it like from the ground up now here's another interesting rumor I heard I'm not sure if this is true but I heard that Mr. Carl D'Python Anghelo before he was pulled away to work on Winchester's which has turned out to be a great success for barrels before he was pulled away from that game, he was working on a homebrew game. And what I'm hearing in the rumor mill is this, that the homebrew game that Mr. Carl D'Python Anghelo was working on is a movie known as Big Trouble in Little China. So imagine that, right? Because when you're doing homebrew projects, no one has the exclusivity on it. So what if Carl has been working on in his basement, his version of Big Trouble in Little China. And now that Winchester has proven to be a success and also that Carl brings buyers, right? You'd be much smarter to bring out a Carl D'Python Anghelo made Big Trouble in Little China versus the homebrew guy. Now, look, I know that Barrels also is a company and this is why I like their approach. Much like Spooky, they collaborate. So if you hire this new guy and you got Carl, it's gonna be a collaborative effort to make the game as great as it can be. That's the way it should be. That's the way it should be. I think collaborations are the way to go. I think this like one designer working in a silo behind closed doors isn really the best approach So those are the rumors that we are getting at Barrels of Fun And here's what's fun about all of this. This company is going to have to announce its next game this year. They're going to make all these Winchesters easily before the end of the year. And the dunes are going to be made. And then what? I mean, when you're a boutique company, you got to keep games on the line. So the end of this year is going to get crazy as we get like Fallout, we get Sonic, we get Goonies, we get Back to the Future. See, I think these guys are going to be running up against Goonies in Back to the Future. And I expect to see maybe, just maybe, the next game to be announced at Pinball Expo. That is where they announced Winchester's Mystery House to the world for the first time. So super excited to see if any of these rumors come to fruition. I think these guys are now in the driver's seat after Winchester. Now, by the way, I keep saying this. If you want a Winchester, I got a guy selling one for $20,000. If you want a Pokemon LE, I have a guy selling one for $20,000. It's a lot of money. I don't see them offered up for sale anywhere else for cheaper. I think once they make all the Winchesters, the price will come down. Once they make all the Pokemon LEs, I think the price is going to come down. I just think that's the way it's going to be. Now, there's no premiums and there's no show games with Winchester. So absolutely, Winchester will always have the smallest supply. But man, the love affair with Beetlejuice is bigger than Winchester. And the love affair for Pokemon is a million times bigger than Winchester. So we'll see the way it nets out. Here's the thing, and I mean this when I say this. I love the fact that people love these three games. What I feel the pressure to do is to like game A, you need to crap on game B and C. We've oftentimes adopted that behavior where you're not allowed to sort of support all these different things going on. I think for the first time, and I've been covering this hobby for 13 years, for the first time in the 13 years I've been covering pinball, there is a lot more to be excited about. The prices are bonkers. They really are. If you told me five years ago people would be spending instantly $25,000 for a chance to get a Pokemon LE spot of which there's going to be 750 games, I would have called you crazy. It does beg the question, what does Stern do now with Transformers? I think what they're going to do is simply this. They definitely know that a lot of people are going to want Transformers. It's more in the wheelhouse of the demo that buys pinball machines. I fully expect 500 LEs of Autobot Edition and 500 LEs for the Decepticon Edition. I fully expect them to do that. They might make it Megatron Edition and Optimus Prime, but why not? Then each of them is still unique and different and still limited. And I keep hearing amazing things about Transformers. And I hope they make the cabinet. Man, how awesome would it be at the cabinet? If you made Transformers Optimus and Megatron, you made those cabinets look like the toy boxes of Optimus and Megatron. That would be so freaking cool. I do think this game is going to be Zombie Yeti. We haven't seen him on art in a while. And this is in his wheelhouse for sure. And some of the comic book illustrations for Transformers are amazing. I just hope and pray that Zombie Eddie makes the LEs so much nicer than the pros and premiums and does not make them look the same. I hope he takes a learning from Pokemon. They nailed it with that LE. It looks so much better than the cheaper games. And that's the way it should be. Everybody, happy Monday. Exciting time in pinball. We're going to start to see more of these Beetlejuices make their way out the door. my boy Frank has his at automated or Frank is it in your house or is it at automated I need to go play it as soon as I can get there I'm not getting anywhere today in these snowy conditions but I will get to play Beetlejuice most likely next Saturday we'll do the Saturday morning spectacular live in front of a Beetlejuice machine everybody be good stay positive life is short and nobody should be stressed out about anything pinball related Kaneda out If I wanna be down So down So down So down Yeah Oh Now ... ... ...