Episode 866: "Jaws Not So Nice Rumors"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·12m 13s·analyzed·Oct 25, 2023

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.030

TL;DR

Jaws artwork concerns and Barrels of Fun's surprise market victory signal major Stern/JJP challenges.

Summary

Kaneda reports unverified rumors about Jaws pinball's art package quality and missing movie assets, citing licensing limitations. He also discusses competitive market dynamics following Pinball Expo, highlighting Barrels of Fun's Labyrinth outselling Jersey Jack's Elton John 2-to-1, and warns that American Pinball faces financial trouble and may go under if it cannot sell 300 remaining Galactic Tank Forces units by January 1st.

Key Claims

Jaws pinball art package is final and receivers questioned if it was prototype quality
medium confidence · Kaneda reporting secondhand information from someone who has seen game elements
Jaws lacks major movie assets including Roy Schneider's character and iconic scenes
medium confidence · Kaneda citing licensing constraints mentioned by Jersey Jack in past years
Jaws LE priced at $13,000 with SLE rumored at $20,000
medium confidence · Kaneda stating pricing figures without explicit source attribution
Barrels of Fun's Labyrinth sold 2-to-1 over Jersey Jack's Elton John at Pinball Expo
medium confidence · Kaneda reporting from 'very reliable source who tapped into all distributors'
American Pinball must sell 300 remaining Galactic Tank Forces units by January 1st to fund next game
low confidence · Kaneda stating as rumor with observation of '300 banner' at American Pinball booth
American Pinball ordered 500 parts for Galactic Tank Forces first run and has sold ~200 to date
low confidence · Kaneda inferring from production order details; presented as rumor
Christopher Franchi blamed Kaneda at Pinball Expo panel for his Stern termination
medium confidence · Kaneda reporting from expo panel attendance; context involves Franchi allegedly selling unauthorized Beatles artwork
Elton John game lacks clear objectives and storyline, functioning more as 'glorified jukebox'
medium confidence · Kaneda citing multiple attendees and one 'very much in love with Jersey Jack' source
Post-Godzilla pinball games depreciate within 4-5 months of release
low confidence · Kaneda's market observation and opinion
Stern Pinball is 'burning its consumer base' with remake strategy

Notable Quotes

“I'm hearing that the art package on the game is not great. And I'm hearing that when people saw the artwork, they asked Stern Pinball, is this the final or is this just like a prototype of what you're thinking about doing? And it is the final art package on the game.”
Kaneda @ early in episode — Core rumor about Jaws art quality; framed as first-hand account from unnamed source
“Do you want Jaws pinball if it's like Jurassic Park? It's a lot easier in Jurassic Park to do what they did because you're dealing with mostly dinosaurs. But Jaws is mostly a story about humans not the shark.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Analyzes fundamental IP challenge for Jaws game design without major human characters
“So now we might have a Jaws game with no assets and terrible artwork. Can Keith Elwin's layout save a game that might not be living up to our expectations?”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Central question framing whether designer talent can overcome asset/art limitations
“A startup company beat a billionaire at his own game. Embarrassing.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Reaction to Barrels of Fun outselling Jersey Jack; reflects competitive shift
“David Fix is in big trouble. I've been hearing that American Pinball will not make its next game, which I rumored it to be Cuphead. They will not be making Ryan McQuaid's game unless David Fix sells all of the Galactic Tank Forces.”
Kaneda @ late in episode — Major business warning about American Pinball's survival contingent on inventory liquidation
“I think if there's any company that could go under in the next six months, it is American pinball.”
Kaneda @ late in episode — Stark prediction of potential company failure
“The only thing that's not going to be greedy, the only thing that's not going to fleece you, the only thing that's not going to oversaturate you... is Kaneda's Pinball Podcast.”
Kaneda @ closing segment — Self-promotional aside; reflects Kaneda's positioning as independent industry voice

Entities

Kanedaperson Keith ElwinpersonStern PinballcompanyJersey Jack Pinballcompany Barrels of Funcompany American Pinballcompany Randy Martinezperson

Signals

?
rumor_hype: Unverified reports that Jaws pinball final art package is below expectations; receivers questioned if it was prototype quality
medium · Kaneda reports secondhand account from unnamed observer; emphasizes this is rumor/first report
?
licensing_signal: Jaws pinball reportedly lacks major movie assets including Roy Schneider character; only Richard Dreyfuss call-outs available
medium · Kaneda cites past Jersey Jack statements about Jaws licensing constraints and compares to Jurassic Park asset availability
$
market_signal: Barrels of Fun's Labyrinth outsold Jersey Jack's Elton John 2-to-1 at Pinball Expo; startup outperformed established premium manufacturer
medium · Kaneda citing 'very reliable source who tapped into all distributors'; notes Barrels of Fun sold 150 games directly
?
business_signal: American Pinball facing potential insolvency; must sell 300 Galactic Tank Forces units by January 1st to fund Cuphead project
low · Kaneda presenting as rumor; inferred from observation of '300 banner' at booth and production order details (~500 units ordered, ~200 sold)
?
gameplay_signal: Jersey Jack Elton John criticized for lack of clear objectives, storyline, and coherent design; described as 'kaleidoscope' of unrelated assets
medium · Multiple Pinball Expo attendees and one JJP-supporting source quoted expressing frustration with game objectives and narrative structure

Topics

Jaws pinball artwork quality and licensing concernsprimaryMovie asset licensing and its impact on game designprimaryBarrels of Fun's competitive success and market disruptionprimaryAmerican Pinball's financial viability and inventory crisisprimaryJersey Jack Elton John game's code/objective design weaknessesprimaryPremium pinball pricing and consumer depreciation expectationssecondaryStern Pinball's remake strategy and market saturationsecondaryPinball artist selection and specializationsecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.72)— Kaneda expresses concern and criticism regarding Jaws artwork, movie asset availability, and overall industry health. However, he is enthusiastic about Barrels of Fun's success and his own podcast. General tone is cautionary about market oversaturation and company financial viability, with accusations of greedy pricing and consumer-unfriendly business practices.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.037

uh welcome everybody to canada's pinball podcast it's going to be a little bit of a shorter episode i've got to run to work but i want to get this news out there and you're the first people hearing this news and i wish it was better news here's the story everybody i spoke to someone who has seen some elements of Jaws pinball. And here is the unfortunate elements I'm here to tell you. I am hearing, and you're the first to hear this, I'm hearing that the art package on the game is not great. And I'm hearing that when people saw the artwork, they asked Stern Pinball, is this the final or is this just like a prototype of what you're thinking about doing? And it is the final art package on the game. So you're hearing it here first. Now, who did the art package for this game? Is it Randy Martinez or is it the artist that did Rush Pinball? Either way, Randy's specialty is Star Wars. I know he did one picture of Jaws and go look at that picture with Jaws and the orca, the boat that's in the movie and that picture like it's just kind of flat and that's my thing is like is Stern Pinball once again going to just assign these games to who's up on the roster or did they pick an artist that's right for the game well i'm telling you right now i'm hearing the art package is not good and now this is kind of unfortunate we're going to get a Keith Elwin game that everybody is super excited to get and the art package could be a letdown and look we all know this that the artwork is really important to get right and we've had so much beautiful artwork from zombie yeti from christopher franchi guns and Roses looks beautiful. There's been a lot of great artwork. And then we got stuff like Rush. It was like, yeah, that looked pretty bad. Star Wars was all right, but I don't think Randy Martinez is the right artist for Jaws. We all know who the right artist is. It's Christopher Franchi, who, by the way, I heard at the expo panel is still blaming me for his termination at Stern Pinball. Oh, you know, I don't know. It wasn't really me who started selling artwork he wasn't supposed to at the shows and Gary Stern saw him and flipped out. He was selling Beatles artwork. He seems to forget that. Everybody blame Kaneda. He's the big, bad, toxic guy in the hobby. The other thing I'm hearing about Jaws Pinball is it doesn't have any of the major assets from the movie. You're not going to get Roy Schneider's character from the movie and that whole movie revolves around him. And so if you remove him and all of those iconic scenes that he's in and all you get is maybe call-outs from Richard Richard Dreyfuss, I don't think they're going to show any movie clips on that LCD screen. And now think about it. Do you want Jaws pinball if it's like Jurassic Park? It's a lot easier in Jurassic Park to do what they did because you're dealing with mostly dinosaurs. But Jaws is mostly a story about humans not the shark So if they remove all of those scenes I keep thinking about the scenes where he on the beach and he sees the shark fin and you zoom in on his face and all that tension is building as he running through the beach and telling everybody to get out of the water and all those scenes in the boat How are you going to make Jaws pinball without Roy Schneider saying, smile, you son of a B-I-T-C-H? And we heard from Jersey Jack years ago that the reason he passed on Jaws was the fact that there are no assets available to make the game the right way. It's funny that Jack said that because he makes so many games without the right assets and doesn't make them the right way. But you know what I mean. So now we might have a Jaws game with no assets and terrible artwork. Can Keith Elwin's layout save a game that might not be living up to our expectations? And the thing about it is this, people. Remember, when Godzilla came out, it was $10,500. It was the first $10,500 game and it was loaded. It had every single asset and our expectations of Godzilla were very low. So when the game came out, it's not like all these Godzilla fans were mad because they didn't see the assets they wanted to see. They saw every single asset they wanted in that Godzilla machine. So then you take Jaws, which is now $13,000 for an Ellie. And supposedly there's going to be an SLE for like $20,000. And are you going to be able to charge that much money without movie assets, without the talent from the movie doing call outs? How are you going to charge that much money if the artwork is not up to snuff with where we're seeing pinball machines these days? I mean, look at the beautiful artwork on Elton John and they can't even sell that game. And so this is going to be a very interesting moment for Stern Pinball if Jaws comes out and is not like an instant sellout. If Jaws comes out and everyone is like, well, I'm not going to buy it right now. If I just wait, the price will go down, which has been the case for every single pinball machine that has come out after Godzilla. So we shall see what happens. I also think Stern is burning its consumer base. I think people are watching Stern remake all these games. All that's going to do is make people hesitant to jump back into Stern pinball. And this is the problem with all the pinball these days. If these companies keep burning all of the consumers that kept these companies in business all of these years, there's going to be nobody left. And if all of the secondhand games become the better buy, then who's going to buy new in box? Everyone's just going to wait for a game to take a depreciative hit. And then you swoop in and you buy the game for two to $3,000 less the same year the game came out. Let me repeat that the same year the game came out. It's not like you have to wait four or five years to get a good deal. You're going to get a great deal in four or five months. And if you just go to the gym three days a week for 20 minutes a day, you're going to live much longer and you'll be able to survive and buy these games for less money. Another crazy thing I heard from Pinball Expo, and wasn't it funny? It like Canada Pinball Podcast covered Pinball Expo more than the pinball podcasters who were at the freaking show Like maybe I just hang back now and just cover this hobby and do everybody job for them I heard from a very reliable source who tapped into all the distributors I heard that Barrels of Fun's Labyrinth sold 2-1 over Elton John. 2-1! The Labyrinth beat out Elton John orders 2-1. And we know they sold all 150 of those games directly. And I'm hearing nothing but great things about this company. and the game, and the sales of this game. And I also heard that this game is just beginning what they're going to put into this game from a code standpoint, and a light show standpoint, and an experiential standpoint. So congratulations again to Barrels of Fun, a brand new company who marches into Pinball Expo with machines in boxes and shows Jersey Jack Pinball how to do it. They freaking one-upped Jersey Jack Pinball, who's been in pinball for over a decade, who got beat by a startup company. That is embarrassing. This startup company beat a billionaire at his own game. Embarrassing. So where does Elton John go now? I was wondering about this the last like 48 hours. I've been reading the thread. Iceman is backing the game big time now, which is a recipe for disasters. I mean, every time he backs a game, it always ends up being a failure. I don't think this game is ever gonna have a sales turnaround. And I talked to more people at this show and they said, Chris, look, the game is beautiful. the game shoots really well but the main problem in the game we haven't even talked about the code someone said to me the main problem in this game is there's no objective there's no storyline there's nothing to do in the game the objectives of the game are not really there they're not drawn out like if you love foo fighters you're not going to like this game if you like iron maiden you're not going to like this game and i think it's more about like a glorified jukebox it's like that's Jersey Jack's new strategy and all the Elton John clips mashed up with photos. It's all over the place. And I heard from someone who's very, very, very, very much in love with Jersey Jack. And he said, when you play the game, it's like John Paul, the wind just threw all this stuff together and it doesn't really have any meaning. It doesn't really make any sense. It's like all of these Elton John assets just coming at you in this kaleidoscope way. And that's it. Like, That's it. And look, we know it makes for like a spectacular first impression. But will owning this game be a lot of long term fun for people? I don't know. And I don't know where they go now. Like what's next? How are they going to get hype back into this game? Speaking about what's next, here's the other thing. David Fix is in big trouble. I've been hearing that American Pinball will not make its next game, which I rumored it to be Cuphead. They will not be making Ryan McQuaid's game unless David Fix sells all of the Galactic Tank Forces. And here's the other rumor. There are 300 left to be sold. I think they've sold 200 to date because they ordered 500 parts for Galactic Tank Forces first run. And that is why you are seeing on the walls at American Pinball the 300 banner from the movie because that a rally cry for this company to sell 300 more games And I heard they have to do this by January 1st But I think American pinball is hanging on by a thread. I think if there's any company that could go under in the next six months, it is American pinball. And with all these new games that just came out, how are they ever going to get people interested in this old game that didn't excite people when it originally came out. Gang, it's going to get real brutal. The battleground is now set. All of these games are overpriced. Only the games that are great themes that you really want to own will you buy new in box. Otherwise, you're going to wait and see. Smaller distributors are going to get clobbered. They're going to be out of the business within a year. Companies that don't give you the thing you want, they're going to be out of business in a year. I think companies like American Pinball are in trouble. Companies like Haggis are in trouble. They were nowhere near Pinball Expo. How are they going to sell these expensive centaurs? It's just not going to happen. And if Stern Pinball just keeps flooding the market with older titles and new versions of everything, even their buyers are going to walk away. The only thing that's not going to be greedy, the only thing that's not going to fleece you, the only thing that's not going to oversaturate you, well, Kaneda might oversaturate you with shows because I know you love it and I'm giving you the best bang for the buck, is Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. I love covering this hobby and I think there's no better time in pinball history than to just wait and see. Why buy now? Buy, buy, buy error is over. And I actually think this Keith Elwin game, if it's not pretty, it doesn't look good and it doesn't have assets, I think more and more people are going to be sitting on the sideline and saying, hey, you didn't give me everything I wanted. Now you want so much money from me. I haven't forgotten the days when you put all the assets into the games. I haven't forgotten the days when the artwork was absolutely stunning. And for this much money, there can't be any compromises. It's just that simple. We are now living in an upside down pinball marketplace. A company called Barrels of Fun beat Jersey Jack Pinball at its own game. Everybody have an amazing Wednesday. It is hump day. Also, just for the record Saturday morning spectacular. I'm going to have to move the time probably or just cancel it because I'm traveling this Saturday. More to come on that. Everybody have a great day and thank you so much for the support. We are now at the most amount of club members ever, ever. The haters can't figure it out as they do all their giveaways and shill all their products. We're here with no endorsement dollars, no Win Schilling, just the world's most entertaining pinball podcast. I'll talk to soon. Kaneda out.