Episode 889: "A Game We Want NOT Coming :("

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·17m 39s·analyzed·Dec 16, 2023

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.032

TL;DR

Kaneda confirms Fifth Element pinball is cancelled, warns of industry pricing collapse and Stern's greedy trajectory.

Summary

Kaneda discusses pinball industry conditions heading into 2024, confirming that Barrels of Fun is NOT developing a Fifth Element pinball machine. He expresses concern about Stern's quality control, pricing strategy, and potential move toward paid downloadable content via Spike 3 systems. He also criticizes artist Greg Franchi for unprofessionally sharing cancelled Big Lebowski artwork online, and warns about market oversaturation and economic headwinds threatening the industry's sustainability.

Key Claims

Barrels of Fun is definitively NOT working on a Fifth Element pinball machine
high confidence · Kaneda states '100% confirmation that our friends over at Barrels of Fun, they are not working on the Fifth Element pinball.' He cites Bruce Willis likeness rights and health condition as barriers.
Jaws pinball will sell out 1,000 Limited Edition units on day one
medium confidence · Kaneda predicts 'I think Jaws is going to sell out on day one of those 1,000 LEs' based on pent-up demand after 'two years of mediocre games.'
Jaws pinball will be revealed at CES (January 9th) or the Friday before
medium confidence · Kaneda says 'This game will be at CES. That is what I am hearing. And CES is January 9th.' He speculates it may be revealed 'the Friday before then.'
Stern is planning Metallica Anniversary with LCD screen, Spike 3 system, and downloadable content model
low confidence · Kaneda speculates 'when they do the remake of metallica with an lcd screen i think that's what you're going to see Metallica anniversary, LCD screen, spike three system...downloadable content happening in pinball.'
Jersey Jack Pinball games are overpriced; nobody is buying Elton John at current prices
medium confidence · Kaneda states 'Nobody's buying Elton John at this much money. Everyone's lost money on Godfather and Toy Story 4.' He predicts 'Distros are going to have to put some pressure and collude against some of these high prices.'
Stern's new factory output has worse quality control than the old factory
medium confidence · Kaneda observes 'The stuff coming off the line in the new factory is not as good as the stuff that was coming out of the old factory.'
Greg Franchi (artist) shared unpublished Big Lebowski Anniversary Edition artwork and blamed Universal for cancellation
high confidence · Kaneda reports 'Franchi...uploaded on Facebook an image of a big Lebowski anniversary edition art package...and yes, it looked really cool. But in the very post, he said that Universal SHIT canned it.'

Notable Quotes

“I have 100% confirmation that our friends over at Barrels of Fun, they are not working on the Fifth Element pinball.”
Kaneda @ ~5:40 — Direct confirmation negating a widely circulated rumor in the community; major industry intel.
“Getting Bruce Willis and his likeness into a pinball machine is not something we will see...And especially with what's going on with Bruce Willis and his health condition. I highly doubt his family is concerned about him being immortalized in pinball format.”
Kaneda @ ~6:00 — Explanation of the licensing/personal barriers to celebrity-themed machines; touches on real-world health and IP complexities.
“I think Jaws is going to sell out on day one of those 1,000 LEs. I think after two years of mediocre games at best, everyone's waiting for Keith Elwin's masterpiece is what I'm hearing it is.”
Kaneda @ ~7:00 — Strong prediction about pent-up demand for Jaws and criticism of recent game quality; indicates major hype cycle shift.
“The stuff coming off the line in the new factory is not as good as the stuff that was coming out of the old factory. So it just begs the question, is Stern's quality control, is it where it needs to be?”
Kaneda @ ~16:30 — Raised quality control concern about Stern manufacturing, a critical market signal for a major manufacturer.
“I think Stern's ultimate plan is get everybody signed up, get everybody connected. And now you're going to start buying a game. You're not even going to get the full game when you spend $13,000 on it.”
Kaneda @ ~19:00 — Speculative but pointed criticism of Stern's perceived business model shift toward digital monetization and connected gameplay; reflects growing community anxiety.
“I'm really worried Stern is going to do a dangerous dance in which they might collapse everything by oversaturating, overpricing in a climate in which demand will shrink at these prices.”
Kaneda @ ~30:00 — Major market warning about industry sustainability; suggests Stern's strategy could destabilize the entire market.

Entities

Kanedaperson Barrels of FuncompanyStern PinballcompanyJersey Jack PinballcompanyGreg FranchipersonKeith ElwinpersonBruce Willisperson

Signals

?
machine_intel: Kaneda confirms Barrels of Fun is NOT developing Fifth Element pinball; cites licensing/rights barriers around Bruce Willis likeness and health condition.
high · 'I have 100% confirmation that our friends over at Barrels of Fun, they are not working on the Fifth Element pinball.'
?
product_launch: Jaws pinball expected to be revealed at CES (Jan 9) or Friday before; Kaneda advises potential buyers to wait 3 weeks for announcement before purchasing other machines.
medium · 'This game will be at CES. That is what I am hearing...maybe we're going to see it the Friday before then. So that means we've got about three weeks to go.'
?
product_concern: Stern Pinball's new factory output quality lower than old factory; raises concerns about quality control on high-priced machines ($13,000+).
medium · 'The stuff coming off the line in the new factory is not as good as the stuff that was coming out of the old factory.'
$
market_signal: Jersey Jack Elton John machines stockpiling at distributors; MAP pricing unsustainable; distributors forced to sell used/opened units; predicts collusion on pricing to move inventory.
high · 'Distros are going to have to get together and I think they're going to have to put some pressure and collude against some of these high prices...their money's tied up in an asset that's underwater.'
?
product_strategy: Kaneda speculates Stern planning shift to Spike 3 system with downloadable content model (tied to Metallica Anniversary remake); warns of paid DLC fragmenting game features previously included.

Topics

Fifth Element pinball cancellationprimaryJaws pinball reveal timing and market expectationsprimaryStern Pinball quality control and manufacturing concernsprimaryIndustry pricing strategy and market oversaturation riskprimaryJersey Jack Pinball overpricing and inventory surplusprimaryGreg Franchi artist professionalism and licensing etiquettesecondarySpike 3 system and downloadable content business model speculationsecondaryPeople's Choice Awards and community voting engagementsecondary

Sentiment

neutral(0)

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.053

It's so easy, easy, when everybody's trying to please me, baby. Yeah, it's so easy, easy, when everybody's trying to please me. Sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up. Welcome everybody to Canada's Pinball Podcast, the only pinball podcaster with an award show that is including everybody in its categories. We're going to talk about some pinball news today. It is not a Friday show, it is a Saturday show. I was not able to get the show up yesterday. I was really busy. But let's just get right to it and talk pinball. And look, for everyone listening to this show, please go to the Facebook page. There is a fun People's Choice Awards happening right now. My goal is to get 1,000 people to vote in each category. We have until next Friday until the polls will shut down. And then Cengiz and I will do a recap show where we discuss where the chips will fall. And what I like about this show is everybody's included but me. I took my name off the ballot. You know why? I don't want to be accused of being biased or trying to give myself an award. I will never be eligible for another Twippy in the history of planet Earth now. They revealed to the world that if you've won a prior Twippy, you will not be eligible to win again. Tom Brady can't win more than one Super Bowl. Michael Jordan won championship and then you're done let Karl Malone have won you know this is the problem with the modern world and I'm not going to get into it it's silly that people who make these decisions are making themselves seem silly and I think come next year we need to all just get over this stuff lighten up I don't know what people do to lighten up these days maybe they need to smoke a little something maybe they need to get a little hanky-panky from the missus and everyone just needs to stop fighting over this mountain of dirt and just respect people who are putting in the effort and doing the work. And it's okay if we recognize people. It's okay if people want to win an award. It's okay. It's just pinball, people. It's not rocket science. All right, so let's talk about pinball. I'm going to give you an exclusive bit of news that I wish was better news. I'm here to confirm for you, I have 100% confirmation that our friends over at Barrels of Fun, they are not working on the Fifth Element pinball. This rumor has been spreading for a while. It is not happening. I'm not surprised it's not happening. Getting Bruce Willis and his likeness into a pinball machine is not something we will see. It seems really difficult. Same with Tom Antonio Cruz. And especially with what's going on with Bruce Willis and his health condition. I highly doubt his family is concerned about him being immortalized in pinball format. And it is a shame because the fifth element and Die Hard would be two of the greatest themes you could ever put into pinball format. And I think that's what people just want. We want to get themes that just speak to us, that make us want to hand over some money. And so we're going to see in a few days whether or not Jaws has that kind of power. Now, I think Jaws is going to sell out on day one of those 1,000 LEs. I think after two years of mediocre games at best, everyone's waiting for Keith Elwin's masterpiece is what I'm hearing it is. I was wrong about a teaser going up yesterday, but this game will be at CES. That is what I am hearing. And CES is January 9th. So maybe they are waiting that week. January 9th is a Tuesday. So maybe we're going to see it the Friday before then. So that means we've got about three weeks to go. And I implore each and every one of you, if you're thinking of buying anything right now, you might as well just wait three weeks and see what happens. You're not going to have a hard time getting a Texas Chainsaw Massacre or a Looney Tunes. You're sure as heck not going to have a hard time getting an Elton John. And there still Elvira Blood Kiss editions in boxes sitting at distros And now we seeing that Jurassic Park 30th Anniversary Edition is selling for off instantly Like it now an game overnight And so just wait it out People have some patience, drink some eggnog, spend some time with your childhood friends, like go to the local pub and just wait it out. I also think the holidays is a really good time for everybody to turn off Pinside for a couple weeks, become a normal adult again, stop saying hateful things about Canada on podcasts. And I think starting in January, and I mean this, I think everybody needs to just move on and celebrate pinball, call pinball companies out when they make mistakes. I think we need to get back to a place in which the topics that we talk about are only pinball related and not the personalities in pinball. Now, what I love about the People's Choice Awards I've heard from so many people that are just happy to be on those polls. And so if I missed you, please let me know. The polling is open until next Friday. It's kind of funny because with some of these categories, I made it so people could add an option if I missed it. Instead of adding it in, like people could write in what they wanted to be voted on. They just put it in the comments section. And I get it. This is the first time we've done it this way. But I'm just happy at the end of the year, we're going to be able to see what people loved. And I'm happy that we have stuff like the Pulp Fiction topper. You can vote on that, right? That topper is not going to change. And we've seen it now for like nine months. The art package on Elton John. This is crazy. Elton John art package is beating out Foo Fighters as the best art package in pinball in 2023. I mean, it makes sense. The game came out. The art is not going to change. So why would we have to wait an entire another year? Why would we delay people's ability to say, hey, this is the most beautiful game, even if I'm not going to buy one. This is the most beautiful game in pinball right now. Poor Mr. Franchi. Did you see what he did yesterday? He uploaded on Facebook an image of a big Lebowski anniversary edition art package that he was working on. And yes, it looked really cool. But in the very post, he said that Universal SHIT canned it. And I was like, why is he like yelling at the license holder like this in this cranky manner? And I said this on my Facebook Live earlier. Franchi, you're an incredible artist. Your stuff looks great on pinball machines. I own one of your machines. You need to be more professional now. You're working with all these companies. And if you don't get your way or some game doesn't get greenlit because the license holder doesn't want to do it, it's not your place to share this artwork out in the world. He's deleted the post, but the damage is still done to his reputation as someone who's a bit of a loose cannon in the pinball space. And this is coming from the ultimate loose cannon in the pinball space, Kaneda. And maybe it's because Franchi and I have that Italian blood inside us. And for those of you who are Italian, you know that there's something inside our veins that's just a little bit different. We tend to get triggered easily and we snap back. I find it funny that people love the Godfather movie. And then when you are Italian and you act a little bit like that, everyone's like, how dare you? How dare you, you bully? I'm going to just destroy you and then go enjoy that movie and love everything about Godfather 2. All right. So we've got no fifth album in. We've got Elton John Pinball is on the line. Stranger Things Premium is on the line. And everyone is still just waiting for Jaws. Stranger Things Premium, it looks good. I really hope the quality of the game is better than I've seen on some of these Elviras and some of these other Stern machines they've been making recently. The stuff coming off the line in the new factory is not as good as the stuff that was coming out of the old factory. So it just begs the question, is Stern's quality control, is it where it needs to be? are they rushing these games out at these prices they can't rush these games out they got to make sure that people are not unboxing $13,000 Elvira's and the game's not working right they got to make sure they don release code like Batman 66 code and people are playing their games that they enjoyed for years and all of a sudden you do a code update and now your game is getting bricked you can go one step forward two steps back it like and the only reason they doing these code updates is so they can spy on everybody machines with this insider connected stuff you know the next move they're gonna make when they go spike three system which i think is gonna happen when they do the remake of metallica with an lcd screen i think that's what you're going to see Metallica anniversary, LCD screen, spike three system, all new sound system, all new 4k video. I think you're going to see downloadable content happening in pinball. I think that's Stern's ultimate plan. Get everybody signed up, get everybody connected. And now you're going to start buying a game. You're not even going to get the full game when you spend $13,000 on it. They're going to want you to spend extra and extra to get the things that would have normally been in the game years ago when these games were half as much money. And I think that's the big thing, man. I think everyone's watching what's going on and they're just wondering, like, is Stern going to go down that ultra greedy road? And if they do, it opens the door for everybody else. It opens it up for Jersey Jack. I mean, Jersey Jack, talk about a company that can't figure out how to connect its games. It's Jersey Jack Pinball. How long have they gone without scorebit? They seemingly still have no answer to the replacement of scorebit. So the door will be open for them if Stern gets too greedy. But unfortunately for Jersey Jack, they're just way overpriced. Like everything about them right now is overpriced. Nobody's buying Elton John at this much money. Everyone's lost money on Godfather and Toy Story 4. So we'll see what's going to happen. I mean, think about it right now. It's December. Nobody's buying Elton John. It's on the line. But who's ordering this game? These things are going to stockpile at distributors. And then what? Distributors are going to have to sell these things out the back door. We're witnessing now all this map pricing BS where like everybody knows that a distro bought Elton John Platinum for like $10,000 or 9,500 bucks. And we know they're not going to get anywhere near $12,000 for this game consistently. And you can't force these distros to have to open up games and stream them and then sell them used. Like why can't a distro seeing the market conditions on a game say, hey, look, we've got 15 Elton John Platinums in a box. The market value on them is $11,000. No one's paying $12,000. You can get $1,000 off and come get one today. The moment one distro does that, all of them will have to do it. But isn't that better? Like move some product because the games on the line have to go somewhere. And if you move the product out the door, it takes the pressure off the distributors and gives them some capital so they can go buy your next game. But if distros just keep stockpiling these games, their money's tied up in an asset that's underwater and it doesn't work. So it's going to be really interesting to see what happens in 2024. I think the distros are going to have to get together and I think they're going to have to put some pressure and collude against some of these high prices. It's just not going to work. You know, Jaws is not going to bail out the entire industry because there's only one Jaws. What happens after that? If Stern has to make 500 games a week or more, I mean, they're going to get through the Jaws allotment in a couple months. And then what? And then what happens if the next game is not a big hit like Jaws? I mean, even thinking about Metallica coming back, there's probably 5,000 Metallica machines in the world right now. So you bring it back, you make it nicer. Then what happens? Everyone who has a Metallica and loves one, are they going to try to sell theirs? For how much? Then you're going to have hundreds of Metallica machines going up for sale so these people can buy the new one. Oversaturating the market. I'm really worried Stern is going to do a dangerous dance in which they might collapse everything by oversaturating, overpricing in a climate in which demand will shrink at these prices. I think they're smart to cancel the Godzilla anniversary edition because it's too soon. That game just came out. That game only came out two years ago. and they've been running Godzilla since. They might do it five years from now, like a 75th anniversary. Everybody, what do you think? Like, what do you really think? Do you think pinball at these prices, where things are headed in the world and economically, do you think there's another five-year run of this? I don't know. It's really hard to think that over the next five years, this hobby can continue to absorb these prices I don know You know I definitely feel like all these companies won survive There like 12 companies right now trying to get our money And when I was doing this, like people's choice awards, and I laid all the games on the table, here's everything that came out in 2023. It really was a bit underwhelming. The themes across the board were underwhelming. The mechanical magic in the games was a bit underwhelming. You don't hear people talk about pinball moments really in any of these games. I never really hear anyone say like, oh yeah, that game, that moment. You know, when you talk to people about Lord of the Rings, they're like there and back again. I just don't feel like people are sharing these modes and like, I can't wait to get to this and that. Maybe they are, maybe they're doing it in the club threads. Maybe we need to make that a pinball poll category. What is the most magical moment in a pinball game in 2023. I might add that up this week and make it a write-in poll. I think that's kind of a fun one to add. What's the most magical moment in a pinball machine in 2023? And I need your help to write it in. The reason I need your help to write it in is I haven't been able to play a ton of pinball this year because most of the new games have not made their way to New York City. Most of the new games, I've only been able to play at shows a few times and they've been loud and hard to get a lot of time on them. And that's just been the reality. I mean, I'm in New York City. This is where The Godfather takes place. There is not a Godfather pin on location in New York City. Maybe there's one at Sunshine now, but I've had zero time in this city on The Godfather, no time on Galactic Tank Force, no time on Scooby-Doo. The only two games I've really played have been Foo Fighters and what else is there? Toy Story 4, which I think is last year's game. So nothing new, nothing new for Canada. Everybody, we are at the end of the year. I really want everybody to take the next couple weeks and don't over-invest in pinball. Don't over-think pinball. We're gonna get Jaws. When Jaws happens, let's all come back to the party. When Jaws is revealed, let's all jump into the ring and debate it, talk about it, celebrate it, say what we love, say what we don't. Like, let's wait for that moment, though. Until then, I implore each and every one of you, Spend time this holiday really, really focused on your friends and on your family and enjoying the holiday season. Be present. It is really easy to sit on a couch and just whip open your phone and log on to Pinside or Facebook pinball groups and not be present with your family. Be watching those movies. Like watch Christmas Vacation. Watch Die Hard. Don't do it double screening. Be very present. Brenda's sisters are coming in next week. So you might not see as many shows from me over the next couple of weeks, but you're going to get some good shows. I'm still going to do it. But let's face it. Other than the Pinball People's Choice Awards, if we don't get a new game reveal, there's not a ton going on right now. Everyone should just wind down and be present with their families. There was one thing I would like from all of you for Christmas this year, and we are so close. I just want to hit 700 legit subscribers by Christmas Day. We are at 692. That means just eight more people. If just eight of you get a friend to join this show, you could even create another email address and just sign up again. But that would be the ultimate Christmas gift for Kaneda. I've taken a lot of arrows this year. We're still chugging along. We're still making the best pinball podcast on the planet. And then now that there's no award shows, maybe everybody needs to stop branding themselves as the favorite and the best. And maybe we all just do our own thing and may the chips fall where they may. But there's a reason why 692 people support this show. It's because I think we call it like it is and we're balanced and we're fair and we're not that terrible army of people everyone tries to label us. Happy holidays, everybody. More shows coming next week. Thank you again for the support. And much love from myself and Killian and Brenda to your families. May all of you have a very happy and healthy holidays. Kaneda out. Take us away, Axel.