Episode 675: "Toy Story Will Be Pat Lawlor's Best!"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·26m 50s·analyzed·May 6, 2022

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.032

TL;DR

Kaneda predicts Toy Story will be a massive hit for JJP while criticizing industry announcement strategy and manufacturer execution.

Summary

Kaneda discusses Jersey Jack Pinball's upcoming Toy Story announcement (expected May 23rd reveal at Pintastic), predicting it will be Pat Lawlor's career-defining game and a major market moment. He critiques Stern's Weird Al pre-order strategy, analyzes pinball as an investment relative to economic volatility, questions American Pinball's public announcement of hiring Ryan McQuaid amid rumors Stern may have acquired the Sonic license instead, and comments on production and quality issues across manufacturers.

Key Claims

Jersey Jack will reveal Toy Story on May 23rd at Pintastic in Boston with the game available for purchase
high confidence · Kaneda citing Todd Tuckey's statements about the reveal date and Pintastic event
Toy Story will be Pat Lawlor's best and most career-defining game, finally validating JJP's signing of Lawlor
medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction based on Lawlor's track record with Addams Family
Stern revealed Weird Al prematurely (before having inventory ready), limiting dealer enthusiasm and creating buyer regret as other games arrive
medium confidence · Kaneda's analysis of Weird Al's announcement timing and lack of production
Mirko's playfields for the last four JJP games have had issues, creating quality concerns for Toy Story
medium confidence · Kaneda noting Mirko manufactures Toy Story playfield and citing pattern with previous JJP games
American Pinball publicly announcing Ryan McQuaid hire makes no strategic sense and may indicate they lost the Sonic license to Stern
low confidence · Kaneda's speculation that Michael Grant may have brought Sonic pursuit knowledge to Stern when he defected
Toy Story CE pricing will be $15,000–$16,000 with approximately 1,000 units produced
medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction based on GNR CE allocation and market positioning
Stern LE and Premium machines have seen 40–100% returns over the past four years in secondary market
medium confidence · Kaneda's observation of National Stern LE pricing trends as investment comparison
Fathom Mermaid edition required 8 days of fixes after leaving factory; only one has shipped
medium confidence · Kaneda citing insider information about Haggis Pinball's pickup experience and quality issues

Notable Quotes

“The worst kept secret in pinball is going to be on the I'm going to be one of the greatest pinball launches of all time. I am calling it right now.”
Kaneda @ early segment — Sets the hype tone for Toy Story announcement; indicates Kaneda's strong confidence in JJP's ability to execute
“Toy Story is coming out at the end of this month. If I want to buy it and I'm happy I know it's coming out end of May, I am simply going to save up for a few months.”
Kaneda @ market analysis section — Illustrates planning challenges for buyers when release dates aren't announced early; advocates for transparent scheduling
“He was terrified that Toy Story was going to be revealed before TPF. So he wanted to get in front of that.”
Kaneda @ Weird Al discussion — Speculation about Stern's motive for early Weird Al announcement; suggests competitive pressure between manufacturers
“I think this game is going to be the game that finally after two attempts, this is going to be the game that pays off for Jack Winari and his signing of Pat Lawlor.”
Kaneda @ Toy Story analysis — Frames Toy Story as validating JJP's strategic investment in Lawlor; acknowledges previous underperformance (Dialed In)
“If Jersey Jack Pinball would have told us months ago, our new game is coming out in May, simply so you can plan for the future purchase... I wish we knew what the release dates were for the games.”
Kaneda @ product strategy section — Industry criticism: calls for transparency in release scheduling to support buyer planning
“Jersey Jack Pinball sold me a game for $12,500. It's now worth $20,000. So I'm okay spending $500 more because the way I see it, they sold me a game completely underpriced.”
Kaneda @ GNR playfield replacement discussion — Reveals secondary market appreciation of JJP games and buyer willingness to accept quality issues given value proposition
“You can't put a value on fun. It's a subjective argument, but you can put a value on material cost, people.”

Entities

Jersey Jack Pinballcompany Pat Lawlorperson Toy StorygameJack WinaripersonTodd Tuckeyperson KanedapersonStern Pinballcompany

Signals

?
announcement: Jersey Jack Pinball released first teaser for Toy Story featuring coil imagery with spring/plant color scheme; full reveal expected May 23rd at Pintastic
high · We finally got to see yesterday their first, I hope, of many teasers... coils with wires coming from it... I saw people were trying to see if they could see a teaser in the image like Woody or Jesse
?
machine_intel: Kaneda predicts Toy Story CE pricing at $15,000-$16,000 with approximately 1,000 units produced, based on GNR CE allocation and market positioning
medium · I would bet my bottom dollar We Are Pinball going to see a thousand Toy Story CEs. They will be 15 to 16 K
?
rumor_hype: Kaneda speculates Stern may have acquired Sonic license from American Pinball, using Michael Grant's defection as alleged conduit of competitive intelligence
low · When Michael Grant defected over to Stern, he probably brought with him the knowledge that American Pinball was pursuing Sonic license. And then I bet Stern does what Stern does best and went and got it
?
product_concern: Mirko's playfields for last four JJP games reported to have issues; Toy Story playfield quality concerns raised despite buyer acceptance
medium · We all know that Mirko is making this playfield. And if we know that and if we know that the last four games he made the playfields for Jersey Jack have had issues, how do you walk away from that knowledge
$
market_signal: Stern LE and Premium machines have achieved 40-100% returns over four years; JJP games appreciate 40%+ on average; pinball viewed as alternative investment during economic volatility

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.080

0:00

When the road looks rough ahead and you're miles and miles from your nice warm bed, you just remember what your old pal said, for you got a friend in need. I said I said I said I said I said I said I said I said I said I! Ah, happy Friday everybody. Welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. Welcome Andrew to the show, our newest club member. We're like stuck. Like we can't get to 500 club members. I don't know what's up with everybody out there, right? We're at 495. We were up to 496. We went down to 494. And I thought we would get to 500 before Fathom Games started shipping, but we have not. We are so close. Bill Brandis said he's going to be number 500, and I don't know why he's waiting to join the show. Anyway, here's what I want to talk about. We are finally getting teasers to Toy Story. The worst kept secret in pinball is going to be on the I'm going to be one of the greatest pinball launches of all time. I am calling it right now. I know people think I'm shilling for JJP, but I am super excited. I'm going to talk a little bit about why I think this game is going to break a damn inside the pinball community and just flood us all with excitement. We're going to talk a little bit about Haggis game number one that got picked up. I got some insider information about what the experience was like picking up Fathom number one. Again, you're going to see more red flags about what's going on over at Haggis Pinball. And I also want to talk about why. Why did American Pinball announce they have another designer? And does it make sense to reveal to the world that you hired another designer? But first, I want to talk about what I think is going to happen in the pinball world in 2022 if the economy of the world keeps going up and down in such a volatile fashion. При a mtется pacos轉ki,it szy I'm not calling my financial advisor and be like sell, sell, sell. I want to buy a pinball machine. I am simply saving my salary and that is how I prepare for pinball purchases. So for example, I know that Toy Story is coming out at the end of this month. If I want to buy it and I'm happy I know it's coming out end of May, I am simply going to save up for a few months. Now for many of you out there, I think you guys all feel the same way. I wish we knew what the release dates were for the games. And I don't mean like we have to know the next title specifically, but wouldn't it be nice if Jersey Jack Pinball would have told us like months ago, our new game is coming out in May, June of 2022, simply so you can plan for the future purchase. Same thing like Stern told us our next game is coming out in August. I do think it was nice that Stern told all of its dealers and all of its customers there won't be an April release and the next game is coming out in August. Pinnaltime Le ANTI-DIRANCE PIECE.

3:42

I have been asking myself where are theouts cardboard boxes that I bought? Could thisinter forskift Mountains минут Don't take money from people when you still are like six to eight months from manufacturing. I don't like it. I don't like that Jerry did that with Weird Al. I mean look at Weird Al for a minute. I know I'm going on a little bit of a tangent, but look at Weird Al. That game got revealed. It got announced and now the hype is gone. It's dead, right? There's absolutely no conversation around Weird Al. You know why? Because nobody has it. Nobody's unboxing it. I'm not making games a week. There's nothing going out to anybody. And so then it just begs the question, why did Jerry even reveal the game if he can't get people the game? Like it's absolutely asinine. He's been around for too long to do it this way. He knows it. Like he should have had the parts in house to build at least 50 of them before he took people's money. And I think he knew what was going to happen. The reason why Jerry revealed it when he did, he was terrified. I mean it, he was terrified that Toy Story was going to be revealed before TPF. So he wanted to get in front of that. And he did and he successfully now sold like 227 Weird Owls for $13,000 and now anyone who bought one is going to be waiting forever. And here's what's going to happen for all you guys who are going to wait six months or a year to get a Weird Owl. You're going to see Toy Story and you're going to want it. And then you're going to have a stupid amount of money locked into pinball machines, one of which you won't even get for like a year. Because we know that if you want a Toy Story CE, it's going to be like $15,000, $16,000. And then if you want Weird Al, that's $13,000. If I were to have told you six years ago to get two of the nicest version of pinball machines, you are going to have to lay out $29,000 for just two games, right? $29,000 for two pinball machines, you would have been like, you're crazy. There is no way this hobby is going to support that, but that's exactly where we are. So then when you look at the economy of the world and you look at inflation, everyone's portfolio has taken a huge hit. A lot of people out there. And if you're like me, if you're in that age bracket where you're still working for somebody, right? You don't have your own company. You might be a little bit nervous because as the economy goes south and as inflation goes up and interest rates go up, what happens if you lose your job? I think some people get nervous that your career might be a little bit in jeopardy and you need to save your money. You need to not buy pinball machines. But I will say this devil advocate pinball machines are still a better investment than a lot of stocks They a better investment than a lot of crypto I bought a lot of Cardano and I lost about six or on my Cardano purchase and a lot of you out there who dabbled in crypto you know what I talking about You know you don hear about crypto anymore right Like two years ago you couldn swing a dead cat without hitting people that were bragging about their crypto games Now you hear nothing The reason why you hear nothing because everybody lost money and nobody wants to admit it and that like sports betting right You know, everyone always tells you when they win, but no one ever tells you when they lose, but over time, you will most likely lose if you bet on sports but betting on pinball machines has actually paid off for everybody. I mean, there are very few games if you had bought them new in box, especially in L E from Stern that you would ever lose a single dollar on In fact, it's the opposite. So, if you've been watching National SternLE over the last like four years, you on average would have made a 40% return on each of those purchases. On some of those games, you would make a 100% return. So, it is still not a bad investment but I still think we are going to see people sort of halt and slow down their pinball purchases as the economy goes down and as inflation goes up. So is it a good time for Jersey Jack to release Toy Story? So we finally got to see yesterday their first, I hope, of many teasers that something new is coming this spring from Jersey Jack Pinball. I thought the teaser was great. It was coils with wires coming from it. You know what I loved is the colors looked like they were plants, like they were planting something new this spring that was about to grow into the pinball machine. That will be Toy Story. The colors also looked a little Buzz Lightyear. I saw people were trying to see if they could see a teaser in the image like Woody or Jesse. I don't think that was that. We're a weird bunch. We kind of try to find Easter eggs in everything, but I don't think there were any Easter eggs hidden in that image. But it's clearly a new game coming from Jersey Jack. Todd Tuckey keeps telling us this game is going to be up at Pintastic in June in Boston. And he said you're going to be able to go home with the pinball. The Game So we are looking at, I think, a May 23rd, Monday, May 23rd reveal of Toy Story. And I'm just going to say it right now. I think this game is going to be epic. And I know that some of you out there, as I say that, you cringe and you get like all knotted up inside and you're like, come on Kaneda, this is a kid's theme. This isn't going to work with pinball. I'm just telling you right now Buzz and Woody you're all going to be won over by Pat Lawler's version of Bud and Woody. It's going to be a Pat Lawler game. The good thing is this. I think this game is going to be the game that finally after two attempts, this is going to be the game that pays off for Jack Winari and his signing of Pat Lawler. This is why Jack signed Pat Lawler, arguably one of the greatest pinball designers of all time. Without a doubt, the man who designed the best selling pinball machine of all time in Adam's family. This is it. This is going to be the game that I think we stand over and say, Pat Lawler, you finally did it. You finally made a game that is worthy of your legacy. It did not happen with Dialed In. Thank you for watching. I hope it is. I hope when we see this game, we are all super excited. I hope we're all doing backflips and I hope we're all trying to find a distributor who's I'm going to sell us one. And if Jersey Jack sells this game directly, it's going to be really interesting to see how many games they sell direct and how many games go to distributors. Now, if you remember with Guns and Roses, they screwed over their distributors with allotment and there were only 500 GNR CEs. I would bet my bottom dollar we are going to see a thousand Toy Story CEs. They will be 15 to 16 K and I think there's going to be a Buzz and Woody edition. I do. We are right on the precipice of this game and this is exciting. There has been no news in pinball. There has been nothing to talk about. You know, you go on Pinside these days and it is so boring. I mean, the same people are on there saying the same stuff about the same games over and over and over again. But come May 23rd, I think you're going to see a game that's absolutely going to blow us away. Now, there are question marks about this game. Will they have the assets, right? We know that the assets We all know the actors in the Toy story franchise are super expensive to get and we know that if there's any company that doesn't get all of the assets into the game. It's Jersey Jack Pinball. Like I was shocked at TPF when Jack got up there and said, we always put everything into our games. It's like, no, you didn't. You did it with Wonka. You didn't do it with Pirates of the Caribbean. You didn't do it with the Hobbit. You didn't do it with almost any of your games. Jack. You haven't had a game in which you've had full assets. You haven't. The Hobbit they did it right because they got the voice actor to sound like Ian McKellen and it worked perfectly Willy Wonka to this day I won't get over it I will never get over the fact that that movie is a musical and when you play the pin none of the video clips and the voices sync up and there's none of the musical items from the movie in the pin itself it's a joke look I get it Willy Wonka is great if you forget about all of that but at these price points I don't want to forget about all of I want everything and more in these games for what they costing But the big question hanging over this game is what will the playfield quality be We all know that Mirko is making this playfield And if we know that and if we know that the last four games he made the playfields for Jersey Jack have had issues how do you walk away from that knowledge and think that these playfields are going to be good The problem is we can shove it to Mirko because we still want the game And we all in the same dilemma Like, I'm going to buy Toy Story even if it has Mirko playfield issues. I don't care. Like, I'm going all in on a CE. I've got a Guns N' Roses sitting in a box, number 500, collector's edition, sitting at Cointaker with a playfield that I know is defective. There's nothing I can do. I am going to buy the backup playfield from Jersey Jack Pinball this summer. They're going to sell it to me at cost. I'm going to pay that. Do I want to pay that? No. Do I think it's fair? No. Am I going to do it? Yes. Is that life? Yes. Sometimes in life are things not fair? Yes. Is it worth the peace of mind to me to spend $500 extra I didn't want to spend on a game like Guns N' Roses Collector's Edition? Yes. I'll give you my rationale because Jersey Jack Pinball sold me a game for $12,500. It's now worth $20,000. So I'm okay spending $500 more because the way I see it, they sold me a game completely underpriced. They sold me a game at like wholesale value. So I'm alright buying the replacement playfield. They are not going to make the same mistake again twice. And what I mean by that is they are not going to undervalue these pins anymore. I think they're seeing what Stern has done with $9,000 premiums and $11,500 LEs and Jersey Jack Pinball must be like, we messed up. Like we messed up. We put everything into these games and Stern didn't put much more and they priced their games where we are at and we are now losing our margins. We are now realizing that we could have always charged more for these games. We need to wake up and realize that we are high end pinball and we make Knapp Arcade, WPPRINK, A better product it might not flow better your flippers might not feel better people but there is no denying Apartheid, WPPRINK, A better product it might not flow better your flippers might not feel better people but there is no denying the fact that if you put a Jersey Jack game next to a stern machine it looks twice as expensive it looks like there's twice as much in it and there's so much more going on code wise there's so much more going on in the game I don't understand how anyone out there thinks these games are apples to apples they are not Everyone in the Stern army will come back with the same argument, but the stern games feel better and the stern games are more fun. So how do you put a value on fun? And I'm here to tell you right now, I don't even know what voice I'm doing. You can't put a value on fun. It's a subjective argument, but you can put a value on material cost, people. Look, two Rolexes both tell time. They both tell time. www.KnappCinemaAboutSkin Text.com About a month away from genius weekend, or aæ�p feature prior to the day of our photo shoot, this conference was joined by loon == lió�n точно ngúnòn yáhn yáhn yáhn tærréist iŽ youtuber, Korean as alé Message Tschípt GasBot tv Kne應 by Yin ˀén ˀ gobiernoalı Father To loosener greater than a panda The ount for bucks? Fjέson Thý leijón • Zor vari, yukoi, yukite okikote-eme.com café.com so WonderfulBallBent memesView Lomesideo, qin ấyу يوں 왕οclub discriminateimmungúsica Indians esti amo, tas Bin, cet TaoGaruy, RVyakopi okkndakriti, is indirect e isti podite, hes aing pratic shopchteaannananmasn astrakhanismbot, japaneseyakboLevteBookics, Troop,forcebarnat Campus.com shortstop mukamon�로j Running地营yasn rondig Foundation and Finish Guns N' Roses production. You can basically have every single line going with Toy Story. There's no other competition. American Pinball has nothing new and exciting. You've got nothing new from CGC that can even get out the door. We've been waiting for Cactus Canyon forever. Plus Cactus Canyon is a 25-year-old title. There's absolutely nothing happening. You don't have to worry about Dutch Pinball or like the Pinball Brothers, right? I mean think about it. Like they're doing 40 games in like four months, some of these companies. And you sure as hell don't have to worry about I heard the story of the first Fathom Mermaid edition that was picked up from the factory. They made one. One has gone out the door. Just one. And I heard that it took them 8 days to fix some of the issues on that one game that we saw in that reveal video that no other podcast wants to deconstruct. Okay, it's fine. Just do your shows. Cheers for the 3rd Anniversary of the Spcely Pinballreno Russoijo. The big news here in 있습니다 is that the邊ал Thank you for watching. We'll see you next week. Bye bye. .

19:29

fulfill vortex....... It weird to me that Damian trying to protect the image of his company Here why it weird Because every deposit is nonrefundable, Damien. It doesn't matter what we see. It doesn't matter what you show. Nobody can get their money out. So you might as well show us what's going on. But the fact that he won't speaks volumes to me. Alright, in terms of speaking what's going on, I was just thinking about this when I was like in the shower getting ready to have another day as Kaneda, the world's favorite pinball podcaster. Here's what I was thinking about. I was thinking about, you know, the fact that Stern might have taken the Sonic license from American Pinball. And I was thinking about why did American Pinball announce that they hired Ryan McQuaid? Why did they make that an official announcement? They could have hired Ryan McQuaid and nobody would have known. So to what benefit is it for them to promote to the world externally that we've hired Ryan McQuaid especially if you did not acquire the Sonic license? Here's why I think it makes no sense. By doing this now, you've sort of shown your cards to your competitors. Here's what I think happened and this is pure speculation. People are forgetting this. I think American Pinball was talking to Ryan McQuaid for a while about Sonic. They must have been, right? I mean, David Fix went up there at Expo and is like, once a year, we're gonna, we're gonna bring on a homebrew designer and make their game. Okay, well, the best homebrew game was Sonic and Ryan McQuaid was there with David Fix. I think they had been talking to Ryan about coming over, about building Sonic. And if you think about it, Michael Grant was over at American Pinball when that was happening. Michael Grant went over to Stern Pinball. My speculation is this, is that when Michael Grant defected over to Stern, he probably brought with him the knowledge that American Pinball was pursuing the Sonic license. And then I bet Stern does what Stern does best and went and got it. And this is how it works in business. You are going to get your IP and your innovation stolen if you don't protect them. Now, I don't know if that's the way it went down or not, but it just sounds really dramatic and awesome. And that's why this show is number one, because we make up stuff all the time that is simply entertaining for the ears. But I will say this. It made no sense for them to announce Ryan is on board. Here's another reason why it makes no sense. When is the earliest we will see a Ryan McQuaid American pinball game, right? The earliest we would see it is sometime in 2024. So then what's the point, right? What is the point? Now everyone knows that Ryan works for American Pinball. So now Ryan can't go around to all the shows and just be Ryan McQuaid homebrew guy with his Sonic. He's got to be much more secretive. He's got to be much more protective. And now everyone's going to hound him nonstop about what's happening with him in American Pinball. The other reason I think it's silly is if you're David Fix and you've hired Ryan McQuaid, why not keep that secret? Because Ryan McQuaid is a Ryan McQuaid can then be a little bit of a spy for you, right? He can go around the different shows, he can talk to the different manufacturers, and he might be able to learn stuff that could help American Pinball because people would still openly talk to him. But now you've ruined even that ability. Now he's walking around the shows and he's going to have a target over his head that anything you say to Ryan McQuaid is like saying something to American Pinball. I just don't think it makes any sense. And I think all these victory laps around hiring designers just also I really only want to hear about a pinball designer when we see their design. Anything before then makes absolutely no sense. You know, look, you could argue that Steve Ritchie joining Jersey Jack, yeah, that makes sense because it's Steve Ritchie. Steve Ritchie is the king of pinball. Ryan McQuaid is not. Steve Ritchie has sold probably over a hundred thousand pinball machines in his career. Ryan McQuaid hasn't made one game. So it's just a little strange to me the way American Pinball continues to do this stuff. I think all of these boutique companies, I think they're all just kind of winging it. I really do. And I think it shows in everything they do. All right. Well, look, we also want to congratulate Greg Bone for joining Zach Many over at Flippin' Out. I think Greg is going to be working both with his real estate job and also going to be tech support for Flippin' Out Pinball. I think that's a great move for Greg. I mean, it's a natural move for Greg. It's not a huge surprise, right? It's like Greg and Zach are going to work together in the pinball world. It's like, uh, yeah, like that's exactly what these guys have done forever. But congratulations, Greg, on your new role there. I did think it was funny that Zach put out a press release. I think the thing he left out of the press release is the quote from Greg Bones. So normally that's what you put into the press release is some sort of quote about how elated Greg is for this once in a lifetime opportunity. Everybody, I think this has been episode 675 of これ 혼�ина 친에도 19外国 surgeonsN Koch righteous AntonYoy incurio You can buy all these things at Allentown. There's no reason to go to these shows right now other than to hang with the people, which is fun, but here's why it's not as much fun for me at Allentown. I can't really drink and hang out with everybody because it's a day trip. I'm driving there, then you go to get that lunch and the food court across from the pinball show, and then I'm back on the road again. It's like three hours plus driving just to spend a few hours with the pinball nerds. Who knows? Maybe I'll show up there and do the Saturday Morning Spectacular from the show. Everybody have a great day. We will be back with more episodes of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. Thank you so much for the support. And we can get to 500. I think we can get to 500 by Monday. Let's see if we can do that, Mr. Billy B. You got a friend in me.