Episode 645: "What Would You Do?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·23m 32s·analyzed·Feb 3, 2022

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.027

TL;DR

Industry analysis of manufacturing delays, dealer pricing dynamics, and customer service crises in pinball.

Summary

Kaneda explores hypothetical decisions across the pinball industry, focusing on Haggis Pinball's manufacturing struggles and missed Fathom deadlines, Zach Sharpe's pricing strategy for limited inventory at Flip N Out Pinball amid supply shortages, and Jersey Jack Pinball's customer service challenges following Barry's departure. He argues that Haggis Pinball should pivot to playfield manufacturing rather than full machine production, that dealers are justified in pricing above MSRP given scarcity, and that Jersey Jack faces a difficult transition in handling warranty and replacement issues.

Key Claims

Haggis Pinball is 8-10 months past their Fathom delivery deadline with no production images shared.
high confidence · Kaneda, direct observation of Haggis communication patterns; verified by mention of clip played on show
Haggis Pinball will not achieve profitability even if they deliver existing Fathom orders.
medium confidence · Kaneda, opinion based on industry precedent and business model analysis
Haggis Pinball should pivot to manufacturing neo-pinball playfields rather than full machines.
medium confidence · Kaneda, strategic recommendation based on their demonstrated playfield innovation
Stern Premium and Pro machines now have nearly 1-year wait times when ordered.
medium confidence · Kaneda, observation of current supply chain constraints
Godzilla is superior to Venom and Rush as a game design.
low confidence · Kaneda, subjective game evaluation opinion
Jersey Jack Pinball removed distributors from warranty/replacement coordination, now handling directly.
medium confidence · Kaneda, observation based on Barry's departure and customer service communication changes
Dealers are justified in pricing games above MSRP due to severe supply shortage and demand asymmetry.
high confidence · Kaneda, economic analysis with reference to car industry and arcade parallels
Barry (Jersey Jack Pinball customer service rep) has left the company.
high confidence · Barry's farewell email read on air; 2-year tenure mentioned

Notable Quotes

“I don't think Haggis Pinball is going to make it. I'm not rooting for them to fail. I'm not. This is all on them.”
Kaneda @ ~5:30 — Core prediction about Haggis Pinball's viability; establishes Kaneda's stance as analytical rather than hostile
“What I would do if I were Damien... I would stop trying to make pinball machines. I would make pinball playfields.”
Kaneda @ ~12:15 — Strategic pivot recommendation for Haggis; highlights their one technical strength
“If I were a dealer, I would do the same thing. Now the one thing is this, Zach said he really wouldn't turn into this kind of dealer and it's okay that he has and I think he just needs to own it.”
Kaneda @ ~19:45 — Defends Zach Sharpe's above-MSRP pricing strategy while acknowledging his previous public stance
“All the power right now, all of the leverage is with the dealer and the distributor and they can be the kind of dealer or distributor they want to be.”
Kaneda @ ~22:00 — Economic analysis of power dynamics in supply shortage; explains dealer behavior shift
“Would you really want this job to be the customer service rep at Jersey Jack Pinball? It's a terrible job. It's a thankless job.”
Kaneda @ ~32:00 — Commentary on customer service burden at JJP; contextualizes Barry's departure
“My time here at Jersey Jack Pinball has come to an end. I'm a fan of Jersey Jack Pinball machines over the last two years.”
Barry (via email) @ ~30:15 — Barry's farewell email; confirms his 2-year tenure and departure
“Pinside marketplace is the new eBay. It is the place where you go to buy something at a stupid high price. Now there's nowhere good to buy pinball machines.”
Kaneda @ ~25:00 — Scathing critique of current secondary market pricing and availability dynamics

Entities

KanedapersonDamienpersonMartyperson Zach Sharpeperson BarrypersonChristopher WardpersonJohn YoussipersonJersey Jack Pinball

Signals

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business_signal: Haggis Pinball predicted to be unable to achieve profitability; founder Damien facing mounting losses and credibility damage from repeated deadline misses
medium · Kaneda: 'I don't think Haggis Pinball is going to make it... bit off more than they could chew... no way to make money now'
?
manufacturing_signal: Haggis Pinball Fathom production is 8-10 months overdue with no manufacturing updates or images shared; factory appears empty per John Youssi visit
high · Kaneda: 'we're not even getting a staged manufacturing of Fathom' and reference to John Youssi seeing empty factory
?
product_concern: Jersey Jack Pinball Guns N' Roses and other titles experiencing playfield pooling and chipping issues; Miracle Playfields manufacturer blamed
high · Kaneda: 'customers who are mad that they spent money on these games and they're not holding up'
?
personnel_signal: Barry, customer service representative at Jersey Jack Pinball, has departed after 2-year tenure. Responsibility for warranty/replacement coordination transferred from distributors directly to company.
high · Barry's farewell email: 'My time here at Jersey Jack Pinball has come to an end'
$
market_signal: Severe supply shortage driving above-MSRP pricing at authorized dealers and Pinside marketplace; adjusted dealer markup (ADM) now standard; Godzilla Elite at $19,000, Batman 66 Elite at $21,999
high · Kaneda inventory list from Flip N Out; prediction: 'ADMs are coming, adjusted dealer markup... we're gonna see in pinball right now'

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.071

0:00

Welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast everybody. I'm your host Kaneda. What would you do is the theme of this show. What would you do if you were the customer service rep at JJP? Would you want the job? What would you do if you were Damien over at Haggis Pinball? Would you stick it out? What would you do if you were Zack over at Flippin' Out and you had a bunch of inventory? How would you price those games? We're going to talk about that and maybe some other what would you do questions out in the pinball world. But first, I want to say welcome to Christopher Ward. Chris Ward is a coworker of mine. But no more. He's going on to a new job. So Chris, congratulations on your new job and your new gig. We're going to miss you, but welcome to the Kaneda Club. He signed up this week and we are at 380 club members. So let's start out the first. What would you do with Damien from Haggis Pinball? And I have to play this clip because I think this says it all before we talk about Haggis Pinball. Alex

1:52

You know, I wonder if Marty is laughing right now. He's part of this whole thing. He's going to be a designer over at Haggis Pinball. So what would you do if you're Damian? What would you do if you had stars in your eyes and you wanted to make a pinball company? You've got Kelts, right? The first game is out there. You've learned how to screw it together. You took all these orders on Fathom and you've missed deadline after deadline. And here we are and it is February and once again Kaneda is playing a clip of a manufacturer not living up to their end of the deal. Now maybe there are fathoms in boxes but if you were him, wouldn't you have shown people production beginning in January? Wouldn't you have shared images of games on the line? And once again we have another manufacturer who is now 8, 9, 10 months past the point they told people they could expect their games. And I'll just say this, I'm going to say this and I mean this. I don't think Haggis Pinball is going to make it. I'm not rooting for them to fail. I'm not. This is all on them. And I just think they bid off more than they could chew and I don't think there's any way to make money now. Now here's what I do think is going to happen. If you ordered a game, I do think you're going to eventually get your game. I do think it's now no longer about profit, it's about pride. and I think this is what happens is these people they've lost so much money they sink so much money into these pinball operations that it's now pride at stake it's not profit and usually when you think about the kinds of people who start these ventures they're usually very successful in other areas of business they're pinball hobbyists, they're collectors and they think they can do what Stern does what spooky does, what Jersey Jack does and then they realize how hard it is to actually assemble a pinball machine when you get hundreds of orders and you have to find parts and vendors and make sure everything arrives in the factory and then you have to hire employees and all this stuff has to happen in unison or nothing can really happen and every week and every month you go down without making money and selling new games you're losing money so how How can Haggis Pinball become profitable? And we know that the next game, what's it gonna be? Marty's gonna design an original IP game? How's that gonna make money? There's no real long-term success that's gonna happen here. And even though I don't wanna see this company run on hard times, I've just seen this story before. I've seen it. It looks a lot like Andrew Highway when you see Damien in this empty factory surrounded by all these parts and this vaulted ceiling and guess what you don't see anyone in there anyone making games so it's not like a sign of confidence when you see these founders in their empty factories that is usually what we see when things aren't going well and it's not like he's going live at least andrew highway went live and he had like people pretending to make games remember those old videos when he had people with like long screwdrivers pretending alien was on the line we're not even getting that We're not even getting a staged manufacturing of Fathom. So look, it is just early February, but I think they need to owe people an update now. I think they need to come clean again, and I think they need to put out a new date, which they will miss again. And it's just the state of pinball. Now, I think you guys might get your Fathoms, but after that, I can't see this company finding a way to profitability. and if the question is what would you do and I mean this what would I do if I were them if I was haggis pinball here what I would do I would stop trying to make pinball machines I would make pinball playfields That is what I would do if I was Damien You made this new pinball playfield that will never dent it will never pool it will never chip So I would stop trying to make every single component and make an entire game and make remakes and Marty original design And I would call up the Abbess family and say Hey how about we supply you Jersey Jack with all of your playfields moving forward you will have our bulletproof playfields and you will never have another customer service complaint about playfields that pool and chip and aren't bulletproof that's what I would do if I were Damien that is the one problem they solve they didn't solve any other problems Kelts is not the modern pin of the year it's not the best game of the year by any means they're not going to crank out machines that are on par We know this. So then why do we need more manufacturers? This is not competition for Stern. It will not be competition for gameplay or code or design anything. So there is no point if you ask me in turning on a pinball company if you can't really be competitive and they're showing all of us that they sure can't be competitive when it comes to manufacturing and then the games aren't there and then you're doing remakes. I mean, it's countless biggest pinball plus bad patches for ministry carriers from martyrs of the アウト الس foliage, Liteboldke Lyndimento,TeeBee,Teeby,Baken difficulty nuget,atedbyarestudio .com a bigger surplus opened вообще personajes in the Before we go to fully featured games. All right, that's what I would do, but that's just Kaneda. You gotta walk before you run in this hobby, and they ran right into a big factory. I see some trouble with that, a brewing, and that's why we're not seeing any unboxings 10 months after Fathom was announced. All right, so what would I do if I were Zach Manny over at Flippin' Out Pinball, right? No, look, I mean, we're both very handsome men, right? We're both titans of the pinball content world. So what would I do? You know, Zach in the past has said that he will not charge over sticker for games. When a hot game comes out, he will give it to his list of customers at MSRP. And when new games have come out, Zach has done that. But now I'm seeing an inventory list over at flipping out pinball. And I want to talk about it because this is not going to be a personal attack for those guys out there who want to see blood. I'm going to read for you what he's got and we're going to go down the list and let's ask ourselves, what would you do? Try to sort of put yourself in Zach's shoes. I'll do my best. I'm going to do my best to put myself in Zach's shoes. They might be like Brooks Brothers shoes. It's not Gucci, but I'll do my best Zach. He's got Jersey Jacks, Guns N' Roses, Ellie, new in box, Moreoveroire program on re 33h on legatebق thanky орг sm

13:05

Very soon everyone's going to realize the supply shortage is real. Like Rush LEs are not going to be flying out the door. Rush Premiums are not going to be flying out the door. It is at a point now when you order a Stern Premium or Pro, you are going to be waiting almost a year to get your game. And he knows this. So he's got what is arguably one of the greatest Sterns of all time. He's got it new in box and he knows over the next six months there's not a lot coming out. There's not going to be a lot of inventory. And he also knows, like I know, that Godzilla is going to be better than Venom. It's much better than Rush. And so why not keep it at $19,000 because once those pin side games sell, and they will sell, he's going to have the only one available new in box. And there's not going to be many new in box to be had. And so I think this is a smart move as a dealer to do it like this. You might as well keep it up, keep it out there, and you're going to sell it. You're gonna sell it. And so why sell it for $3,000 less right now at $16,000 if he could hold on and make that money? And he will make that money. And this is where we're at. And I predicted this. Remember when I did a show that ADMs are coming, adjusted dealer markup, and we see it in the car industry? And this is what we're gonna see in pinball right now is if you have a new in box game, why are you gonna sell it at MSRP? MSRP just means a suggested price to sell it at. I'm going to be so many more people wanting these games than there will be supply. So I don't disagree with Zach doing it. If I were a dealer, I would do the same thing. Now the one thing is this, Zach said he really wouldn't turn into this kind of dealer and it's okay that he has and I think he just needs to own it and I think he is. I don't think he's going to like backtrack and you know people might call him a hypocrite but who cares? It's his business. He's got kids to feed. You know, this is the reality of it. You know, for the longest time, there were so many distributors and dealers giving their friends like the street price of a Stern machine. Remember those days? The street price? Remember what would happen in the street price days? You had guys like Iceman that were getting games for like almost $1,000 off MSRP. They would buy every single LE and then they could flip it for profit even after they played it because they paid below market value on the games. Now it's the complete opposite. Now, if you're a dealer, you're not going to hook up your buddies left and right with like good deals. Why would you do that? Why would you do that? Because now that demand is so high, you don't even need your loyal customers anymore. I mean this when I say it. You don't need your loyal customers anymore because there are so many people dying to buy these machines, especially at MSRP. Let's say for example when Godzilla came out and one dealer said all of my Godzillas are going to be 2000 over MSRP. Guess what would happen? They would sell every one. And so guess what would happen to their cranky loyal customers? They wouldn't be able to go get on another LE list because all those lists would be full. So all the power right now, all of the leverage is with the dealer and the distributor and they can be the kind of dealer or distributor they want to be. Now look, I know many of them and they're great people. I know Cointaker, Pinball Star, Zach Many. They're all good people. They don't want to charge you more, but the problem is they're not getting any inventory. And the reason why they used to always just give everything at sticker price is because they always had a lot of games coming in every month and they were playing the volume game, but they can't play the volume game anymore. And there is no volume game to play in 2022. Now it's a price war. It's a scarcity battle. So I expect to see more of this. CanKaveryManagerTVF기�ож Hi I David Van Es Now is pin side marketplace is the new eBay It the place where you go to buy something at a stupid high price Now there nowhere good to buy pinball machines The deals are done and the marketplace on pin side is pointless It almost like everyone just trolling each other to see what obnoxious price they can put on a game I waiting for the day and it coming soon in which we are going to see a pro machine sell for A pro will sell for The Best Pinball Brats Mobile игр Pist off customers who are mad that they spent money on these games and they're not holding up. So I want to read you this. So Barry sent out an email. This was an internal email. It says, farewell and thank you. Hello friends. I wanted to take this time and thank you for your support over these last two years. We certainly have been through some exciting times together. I have enjoyed working with all of you and I have learned so much from our interactions. My time here at Jersey Jack Pinball has Thank you for watching. I hope you enjoyed this video. If you did, please subscribe to my channel so you don't miss any of my future videos. I will see you in the next video. Take care. Bye. I'm a fan of the Jersey Jack Pinball Machines over the last two years. You know Barry very well. You've probably sent Barry an email asking to get a replacement playfield for your Guns N' Roses. So what would you do if you were Barry? Well, if I was Barry, I would probably just stay out of pinball. I mean, there must be like some post-traumatic stress syndrome going on if you were Jersey Jack's customer service rep. I mean, you just have angry customer after angry customer. And the customer service, I will say this, the customer service Over at JerseyJack Pinball, inconsistent at best. At best. This is not a company that's known for its customer service. And Barry was the guy that was coordinating all of the playfield replacements for Guns N' Roses owners. Now, I'm nervous about that. I am nervous. I don't know why distributors aren't handling these for their customers. That makes me super nervous that they remove the distributors from this. That's the whole point of having a distributor, that they help you with issues and fix problems. Why do Did they do that? I'm just nervous that somewhere in Barry's email is everybody's like inquiry to get their new playfield and we're not really getting any further communication at all. There's nothing. All I got was a response that he received my email and that's it. There's no timeframe. There's no follow up. There's nothing. And that does not make customers feel good. Now what would I do if I was this new, highly qualified person to take over this role? Let me ask you a question, Pinball Podcast listeners. What qualifications could you have to make you the right choice for this role? Even better question, who would want this job? Like, would you really want this job to be the customer service rep at Jersey Jack Pinball? You know, part of me was like laughing. I'm like, I was talking to a friend. I'm like, I bet what happened was this. I bet they were testing Toy Story and I bet Barry looked over the machine and saw the post starting to pool or starting to chip and he's like, I'm done. I'm outta here. Everybody, yeah, Friday's gonna be my last day. Like he saw like the next playfields are not gonna be any better and he's like I'm outta here. You know, why would he leave? Well, we all know why he's leaving. I mean, it's a terrible job. It's a thankless job. And it's not fun being a customer service representative when the company's having nothing but customer service issues. So, I'm really curious to see who's gonna take this role, like who's gonna become the new Jersey Jack Pinball highly qualified customer service Today, here's the fast forward of how the Pinball Podcastурer tile made a successfulHA wore Essexäche farmer came to a project. The first thing I'm going to do is fire Miracle Playfields. I'm done. We're firing him. I don't want my life to be hell. He's gone. We're getting rid of them and we're going to hire Haggis Pinball to make all of our playfields and the pinball world will finally come together in harmony. How does that sound everybody? Alright everybody, this has been Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. It's always fun. I love getting on the mic and talking to you guys. We'll be back with more episodes. If you have any suggestions, email me at kanedapinball at gmail dot com and tell your friends to join the club, you know? I mean, where else are you going these days? I keep seeing these like hour and a half shows still. It's like, come on, there's nothing to talk about if you're not going to talk like this. Later everybody. Tag, Shan Santosh, priya valjched선ki hote iPadBest, 😘 ven coatit xD ailleurs mostrar