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Episode 1085: "The Meeting Stern Needs To Call"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·21m 46s·analyzed·Apr 30, 2025
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.036

TL;DR

Stern's three-tier model is broken; King Kong LE can't justify $13k when Premium looks identical.

Summary

Kaneda critiques Stern Pinball's three-tier pricing model and Limited Edition strategy, arguing that King Kong LE is overpriced and indistinguishable from Premium Edition, eroding collector value. He advocates for exclusive game modes and toppers for LE buyers, warns that third-party translite sellers threaten IP integrity, and expresses concern that Jersey Jack Pinball's Harry Potter launch lacks momentum despite pre-orders. He also laments the disappearance of Pinball Brothers' Predator and Chicago Gaming's Medieval Madness delays.

Key Claims

  • Stern Pinball will produce 932 King Kong Limited Editions in approximately 2.5 weeks, while Jersey Jack takes 2.5 weeks just to post a teaser image

    medium confidence · Kaneda contrasts manufacturing speed and efficiency between manufacturers as evidence of Stern's operational dominance

  • King Kong Limited Edition and Premium Edition look the same, making the $3,300 price difference unjustifiable

    high confidence · Core argument repeated throughout; Kaneda claims third-party translite sellers could bridge the gap for $250

  • Five recent Stern Limited Edition titles (Foo Fighters, James Bond, Dungeons & Dragons, Venom, X-Men) have each lost $3,000-$4,000 in secondary market value

    medium confidence · Kaneda cites this as evidence of collector dissatisfaction and overpricing

  • Jersey Jack Pinball has never released a masterpiece game despite 12 years of operation; gameplay has lacked soul compared to Stern

    low confidence · Opinion stated by Kaneda; attributes this to Keith Elwin and Pat Lawlor's overly complex code design at JJP

  • Pinball Brothers' Predator was supposed to be announced April 25th at Allentown but has gone silent, indicating production shutdown

    medium confidence · Kaneda references previous PB statements about tariff-driven production cuts

Notable Quotes

  • “If there's anything that's going Tee'd Off create real FOMO and someone just hit me up, they're like, Chris, I really want a The King Kong Limited Edition. What should I do? And I'm like, have you not been listening Tee'd Off a word I've been saying? It's going Tee'd Off be $10,000 in six months.”

    Kaneda @ early — Predicts King Kong LE secondary market collapse; establishes core pricing criticism

  • “You could dress up a Premium Edition all you want. It will never be a Limited Edition. It's just that simple. It's like when you put fake badges on a car, it doesn't make it the higher model of the car.”

    Kaneda @ mid — Metaphor capturing his concern that Premium/LE distinction is now purely cosmetic

  • “When you're asking a thousand people Tee'd Off shell out $13,000 and you need those people Tee'd Off do that time and time again, that's $13 million at stake for them. I get that's not profit, but it's $13 million in inventory that you need Tee'd Off get right time and time again.”

    Kaneda @ mid — Quantifies collector market importance to Stern's business model

  • “It's like you give people the good drug and then you sell the masses the thinned out version of the drug right? You cut it with something right?”

    Kaneda @ mid — Explains original LE/Pro/Premium three-tier strategy philosophy; implies model is now broken

  • “They are playing the exact same game and they didn't make it different enough. And not even the great Keith Elwyn can even deliver what Stern Pinball needs in its current business model.”

    Kaneda @ mid-late — Directly criticizes Keith Elwin's inability to differentiate LE gameplay; unprecedented negative assessment

  • “I think Jack, in his old age, I think he deserves Tee'd Off have a game that is legitimately looked at by the majority of people in the hobby as a masterpiece. I don't think he's ever had that.”

    Kaneda @ mid — Frames Harry Potter as Jersey Jack's last chance for legitimacy; raises stakes for launch

  • “The reason I harp about the price is that the prices have Tee'd Off go down. How do you think we're going Tee'd Off get prices Tee'd Off go down in pinball? If more people harp about the price.”

Entities

Stern PinballcompanyJersey Jack PinballcompanyKanedapersonKeith ElwinpersonJeremy PackerpersonEric Meunierperson

Signals

  • ?

    business_signal: Chicago Gaming Company's Medieval Madness Merlin editions are significantly delayed with no delivery timeline; Kaneda suggests multi-year wait continues

    low · 'I would love it if Chicago Gaming Company took another two years Tee'd Off get these games Tee'd Off customers'

  • ?

    community_signal: Jersey Jack Pinball's Harry Potter pre-order strategy has locked customers into non-refundable $2,000-$2,500 deposits without confirmed production numbers or confirmed assets, creating financial risk

    high · Kaneda cites risk that game could ship like 'barren' Godfather with thousands produced, leaving early depositors unable to recover losses

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Content creator ecosystem at Stern is biased toward positive coverage; Kaneda positions himself as lone critical voice unaffiliated with manufacturer incentives

    medium · Opening statement: 'the only pinball podcaster that is not a Stern Pinball corporate endorsement'; assertion most creators visiting Stern see games with 'rose-colored glasses'

  • ?

    licensing_signal: Third-party vendors are reproducing Stern official translites (Jeremy Packer artwork) without authorization and profiting from overseas distribution, creating IP enforcement challenge for Stern

    medium · Kaneda identifies vendor replicating King Kong LE translight; notes overseas location makes legal enforcement difficult; calls for Stern to become 'extra litigious'

  • $

    market_signal: Pulp Fiction SE selling for $6,000 with topper-only differentiation from LE, indicating market expectation of 40%+ LE depreciation becoming standard

Topics

Stern Limited Edition pricing and strategyprimaryKing Kong game evaluation and market positioningprimaryThree-tier (Pro/Premium/LE) model sustainabilityprimarySecondary market value depreciationprimaryJersey Jack Pinball operational and marketing challengessecondaryContent creator independence and NDA ethicssecondaryPinball Brothers production delays and tariff impactsecondaryThird-party aftermarket modifications and IP infringementmentioned

Sentiment

negative(-0.72)— Kaneda expresses frustration with Stern's pricing strategy, lack of LE differentiation, and manufacturer-friendly bias in content creation. He is critical but not hostile; underlying concern is market health. Mixed respect for manufacturers' engineering while dismissing business acumen. Optimistic only about potential for Harry Potter success and eventual price corrections.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.065

You got a piece of me, and I'm a piece, my life, what's up, what's up, without you. Sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up. Oh, welcome to Canada's Pinball Podcast, the only pinball podcaster that is not a stern shill these days. OMG, you can't swing a dead cat without hitting these content creators that are hitting us over the head with all of this King Kong content, all of this Doom content. It's like they're in the back pocket of these manufacturers. Oh, wait, maybe some of them are. No, here's the thing, everybody. Stern Pinball, I want to give them credit. They've got King Kong Ellie in a box. It's in a freaking box. It's already in a box, and it's going to customers. This is what Stern does best. I'm going to talk about the pricing and how the great Keith Elwin can't sell out his own LEs. But still, if there's anything that's going to create real FOMO and someone just hit me up, they're like, Chris, I really want a King Kong LE. What should I do? And I'm like, have you not been listening to a word I've been saying? It's going to be $10,000 in six months. But that doesn't change the fact. This is where the toughest moment of FOMO is nowadays. It's no longer on reveal day. It's when you see that these things are shiny and new and they're in a box and you could have one. And if you want one, you can get one in just a couple weeks. Like Stern's going to crank out all 932 LEs in like two and a half weeks. two and a half weeks it takes jersey jack two and a half weeks to put together a harry potter teaser image and then nothing for two and a half weeks it takes dutch pinball two and a half heck 12 years to get people their big lebowski games it takes dpx how many months to get people their Alice's Adventures in Wonderland. In two and a half weeks, 932 shiny King Kong LEs will be in the world. And that's what gives Stern Pinball so many satisfied customers. Because when you have money, time is money. And rich people don't want to wait. And if you want it and you want the nicest version, you can go get the game. Did you see what I posted? This guy is going to make the Translight. He's going to make the LE Translight available for anyone who has a pro and a premium. And I said this in my note on Patreon, but this is really bad news for Stern Pinball because this guy is overseas and it's going to be hard to shut him down. And I think they need to shut him down. And I think we're going to see a new period where Stern Pinball is going to have to be extra litigious, protecting its IP. And people, just because King Kong might have open IP doesn't mean you can steal Zombie Yeti's artwork. I mean, think about how insidious this is. You're going to steal Zombie Yeti's artwork, make your own Translight, and profit off of something where all you did was find a printer. You didn't even print it. You found some vendor to make them for you. And really all you're doing is putting it in a box. Now, for the longest time, Stern has turned a blind eye to all these mods, many of which are infringing upon its IP. And I think they have to go after this guy because when you think about it, the premium looks so much like the LE. It's $3,300 less money. And if you could spend like $250 and have that beautiful Translight, it is the nicest Translight in all three models. And you could have it. You've got pretty much the same cabinet decals. And then you know Stern is going to make some nice armor that they're going to sell as extra. But here's my thing, everybody. You could dress up a premium all you want. It will never be an LE. It's just that simple. It's like when you put fake badges on a car, it doesn't make it the higher model of the car. The problem is, is that the LE means nothing now. See, that's the problem. There used to be a time in which, yeah, like there was a big gap and a big difference between what an LE owner got and what everybody else got. But nowadays, they're recycling the artwork. Nowadays, as the price difference between LE and premium has become so large, the difference in the games is more minuscule than it's ever been. Remember games like Star Trek LE? Look at that game. It stood out so much more than the premium. And it was maybe, what, like $1,500 more than the premium? Look at games like Ghostbusters and Batman. You go down a line of all these games where they used to put so much Heck Tron LE There wasn even a freaking premium There wasn even a premium So only 400 people in the world have those fiber optic ramps And you've also got the Daft Punk multiball that nobody else got. And that's my point. Today, Stern needs to call a meeting. I mean it. They need to call a meeting with their new CMO. They did not hire me to be their CMO. But if I were the CMO at Stern Pinball, I would call a meeting. We need to readjust how we're launching the three tiers into the world. We need to repair what our LE stands for. We need to repair the relationship with the collectors because this is not change, ladies and gentlemen. When you're asking a thousand people to shell out $13,000 and you need those people to do that time and time again, that's $13 million at stake for them. I get that's not profit, but it's $13 million in inventory that you need to get right time and time again. And if I walked into that conference room, I would say, hey, look, let's look at the following return on collector investment with our product. OK, Foo Fighters, James Bond, James Bond 60th. Then we're going to go to what? Then Dungeons and Dragons, then Venom, then X-Men. I mean, I literally could pull up five titles, each of which have lost three to four thousand dollars of pop. okay so we've just handed the people that we need to buy from us every single time because if they don't buy the le's then the distros aren't putting in the big bulk orders because that's the whole reason why the le exists you know it's like you give people the good drug and then you sell the masses the thinned out version of the drug right you cut it with something right it's like the cocaine that's cut with something else i don't know i've never done cocaine it might sound like I have, but I haven't. But that was the whole model behind the L.E.s. And I think now they need to just wake up for 13 grand, give everybody an exclusive topper and give them exclusive modes in the game. They have to do that. If they don't do it, they're not going to sell these games and people are going to avoid these games like the plague. So if you are out there right now and you have King Kong FOMO on an LE, I guarantee you this assetless game is not going to be the next Godzilla. No way will it ever become that. This assetless game is not, with this kind of code structure, it's not going to take over the pinball world. It's not going to emotionally connect with people the way Godzilla and Jaws did, I guarantee you this game will be easy to get and for much less money than $13,000, especially because the premium looks exactly the same. They are playing the exact same game and they didn't make it different enough. And not even the great Keith Elwin can even deliver what Stern needs in its current business model. I got a text message last night from David David Van Es. I got to respond to him. He asked if I was serious about signing an NDA. First, I take every NDA I sign very seriously. So, you know, I would absolutely be open to signing a non-disclosure agreement. Here's the thing, though. I will only sign an NDA if I feel like I'm going to get something that is worth me not being able to talk because my entire brand is disclosure. I've built a podcast and a pinball community around me disclosing stuff when the manufacturers do not want you to hear it. People forget. I think I was one of the first people saying it was going to be Dune. I was the only one who said there was going to be a James Bond 60th For me to sign an NDA on this game, if David wants to show me what the assets are going to be like in Dune before he's allowed to show everybody else because he's waiting on license or approval, absolutely I would sign an NDA to see that. Because what I like is if I sign an NDA, I get to see something that would excite each and every one of you. And I can describe the exciting thing that's about to come into the pinball world. It's why they should have a few weeks before they launched this game, had all of us content creators sign an NDA, hand over our cell phones, go down there, see the game, play the game with all of the assets, even if they're not licensed or approved, and then just let us gush. That's the smartest approach. You don't have to give us pictures, but yeah, let us say it's Dune. Let us describe the sandworm mech Let us talk about the layout the lighting the music the clips That a smart thing to do because when you get content creators excited you create a lot of positive curiosity. And when Dune came out, there really wasn't positive curiosity. There was more just like skepticism and a lot of shoulder shrugging. And so I will get back to David today and find out what are the terms and conditions of said NDA and see if it's worthwhile. What I don't want to do is sign an NDA and then it's kind of like a gag order on Kaneda. I can't really talk about your company. And I always want to maintain a level of freedom so I can say what I want. Like even if you fly me over to Jersey Jack to see Avatar, I give the Jersey Jack people a lot of credit. They flew me over there. I saw the game. I had opinions about the game that were not that positive. They've never asked me to change the opinion. They've never asked me to be a little bit lighter on their product. And I respect that. I respect that. They absolutely respect the difference between church and state when it comes to content of this nature. Now, speaking of Jersey Jack, I think everybody is sort of a little bit bummed out that May 2nd International Harry Potter Day is upon us this Friday. And it seems like we're not getting anything. It's also crazy when you really think about it. They opened up the order banks on this game two weeks ago. Remember when that letter went out? That also triggered distributors taking deposits on Harry Potter models. And people were putting money down. People have already put money down on Harry Potter CE, not knowing what's in the game, not knowing how many they're going to make and they've got money locked in. And what's scary about those people is they now locked in a $2,000 non-refundable deposit. I think it was $2,500. I want to say non-refundable. So what happens if you gave that deposit, the game comes out and it's barren like Godfather and they say they're going to make thousands of them and you realize, oh crap, I'm going to be able to get this thing easily for like 12 grand in just a few months. You now have lost so much money because you can't back out of your deposit and you're going to pay a premium for the game. Now, I hope Harry Potter is not disappointing. We're all expecting a lot. This is Eric's dream theme. This is sort of like Jersey Jack's make or break moment. I hear people talk like this, like Jersey Jack needs this game to be successful. They don't need this game to be successful on a monetary level. They have enough money to go on forever. What they need this game to be successful for is more about company pride, about bragging rights. And I think Jack, in his old age, I think he deserves to have a game that is legitimately looked at by the majority of people in the hobby as a masterpiece. I don't think he's ever had that. He's now had 12 years, and I know he's put a lot of heart and soul into his company. The unfortunate thing for Jersey Jack games is the gameplay's just never been there, and Keith, for the most part, has coded games in such a way that they're overly complex and they lack soul. So even though Jax pumped his heart and soul into this company, I do think that Keith P. Johnson and Pat Lawler steered the ship for so many years and they just didn't deliver games that had personality, that had heart and soul, and ultimately that were more fun than all the games Stern Pinball was making. I'll use a car analogy again. A Mazda Miata is oftentimes a lot more fun than cars that cost two to three times its price. And that's what Stern is. They're like the Mazda Miata. Like they're the cheap option. That's a lot of fun. The tragedy is that the community has now allowed Stern Pinball to charge us like they're making a Porsche 911 when in reality they are making more what is a Mazda Miata and we've all allowed them to get away with it because COVID made everybody stupid and now we're suffering the aftermath of what happened during COVID. So when it comes to timing with Potter, it's anybody's guess. It's absolutely anybody's guess. Speaking of anybody's guess, what happened to Predator. Like what happened to Predator? You don't hear a single thing. The game was supposed to have been announced April 25th and it was supposed to be at Allentown. I don't know if it's going to make a surprise appearance, but it looks like this game is much like the Predator itself in Predator 1 is dead. It looks like there's no momentum. There's no energy. I'm seeing social posts by Pinball Brothers celebrating Alien Day. But seemingly there is nothing happening around this game And the last interview they did they said they shutting production down because of tariffs or reducing production of games So this does not bode well for Predator I was just curious to see it. We all knew the game was going to be horrible. You know that, like I know that, you know that. There is no way the Pinball Brothers, after making a horrible game after a horrible game is all of a sudden going to make a great predator machine. It was never going to happen. I just wanted to see if it had Arnold and in a pinball game, we could hear get to the chopper screamed at us. That's all I wanted. Um, what else is going on in the pinball world? Where are these medieval madness, uh, Merlin additions? I have to follow this thread. Are these games on the line? I would love it. If CGC took another two years to get these games to customers. I still think they're finishing up Pulp Fiction and then we're going to get to this game. I saw a Pulp Fiction SE, ladies and gentlemen, SE, which is the same exact game as the LE. There's just a little bit of difference, not much, same cabinet artwork, just a topper. An SE of this game is now selling for $6,000 and it's still for sale. Crazy, right? Crazy. Is that topper worth like $3,500? No, it's not. Oh man. If you want the Pulp Fiction experience, you can now go get it for this. I know I harp about price. Do you ever ask why I harp about price? It's not because I don't play pinball. I'm going to play a whole bunch of pinball. I think pinball is super fun. The reason I harp about the price is that the prices have to go down. How do you think we're going to get prices to go down in pinball? If more people harp about the price, if more people are like me and encourage you not to go all in on these games right away, let the dealers and distros buy these things at their market value. They should be the ones taking the risks. A dealer and a distro, the good ones, are making a lot of money. They're making hundreds and hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. And did they have to design the game? Did they have to do any engineering? You know what I'm saying? Like they get the game to you and they will help you out if there's issues. But just remember, they're making a lot of money. Now, they should have to absorb all of the risk, not you. Why would you want to absorb the risk? And all I've seen over the last three to four years is so many of my friends lose so much money and I just want to see that stop. When I saw those people go over to Stern Pinball and I saw all the content that was made around King Kong, I didn't see many people question the game at all. I didn't see people question the laziness of using the same artwork across all three models I didn't see anybody question the lack of magical mechs in the game. Where are they? I'm not seeing them Are you seeing them and it is the elwyn effect? It's like these guys go over there and I will admit when you walk through the doors of stern pinball It is very impressive You're gonna look at everything with rose colored glasses and when you don't go there and you don't get the tour and you don't see how hard it is to make pinball, it is a lot easier to look at it like a consumer, right? Because I really don't care. I'm at this point. I don't care anymore, Stern. I don't care. I get what you've built. I get all the mouths you have to feed. I get all the passion you put into it. But I also understand the market. And you don't understand the market, Stern. Because if all these games are losing so much value, then they are overpriced. It is that simple. The market sets the price, people. And the market is screaming at us to not buy these things new in box. The only thing not screaming at us to not buy these new in box are the plethora of pinball content creators that all are on Stern's side. And that's a problem. I will never be that. I will never sign an NDA unless it's the right kind of NDA. David, I'm going to reach out to you today. And I'm tired of waiting for Harry Potter. I'm tired. Why do this, man? Why take orders? Why start this teaser program and then you've got nothing? How did they even start marketing the game if everything wasn't approved? that makes me nervous jersey jack look we want you to have a home run but you always find a way to mess it up and i'm worried that jersey jack is gonna find a way to mess this game up everybody happy wednesday canada out

Kaneda @ late — Justifies price criticism as consumer advocacy; frames it as industry service

  • “I will never be that. I will never sign an NDA unless it's the right kind of NDA... My entire brand is disclosure.”

    Kaneda @ mid — Positions himself as contrarian to manufacturer-friendly content creators; establishes editorial independence

  • Jack Guarnieri
    person
    Pat Lawlorperson
    David Van Earthshakerperson
    King Konggame
    Harry Pottergame
    Predatorgame
    Medieval Madness Merlin Editiongame
    Pulp Fictiongame
    Pinball Brotherscompany
    Chicago Gaming Companycompany
    Godzillagame
    Jawsgame

    medium · Kaneda questions whether $3,500 topper premium justifies SE-to-LE pricing gap; used as cautionary precedent for King Kong

  • ?

    personnel_signal: Keith Elwin, despite legendary status, cannot overcome structural business model constraints at Stern; unable to deliver meaningful LE differentiation even with creative freedom

    medium · 'And not even the great Keith Elwyn can even deliver what Stern Pinball needs in its current business model'

  • $

    market_signal: King Kong LE ($13,000) and Premium ($9,700) are functionally identical, with third-party translite vendors offering near-equivalent cosmetic upgrades for $250, undermining $3,300 LE premium

    high · Kaneda's detailed critique of translight availability and Premium/LE visual parity; comparison to fake car badges

  • $

    market_signal: Five recent Stern LE titles documented secondary market losses of $3,000-$4,000 per unit, signaling overcorrection in LE pricing and collector resistance

    medium · Kaneda lists Foo Fighters, James Bond 60th, Dungeons & Dragons, Venom, X-Men as examples; frames as evidence market is screaming about overpricing

  • ?

    product_strategy: Pinball Brothers' Predator, scheduled for April 25 announcement at Allentown, has gone silent with no momentum; likely production shutdown or indefinite delay due to tariff impacts

    medium · Kaneda notes complete absence of Predator marketing despite Alien Day celebration; references prior PB statements about tariff-driven production reduction

  • ?

    product_strategy: Stern's LE strategy has shifted from exclusive mechanical features (fiber optic ramps, Daft Punk multiball in Ghostbusters) to purely cosmetic differences (shared artwork across tiers)

    high · Historical comparison: Star Trek LE vastly different from Premium; modern games recycle artwork and lack exclusive mechanical features

  • ?

    product_concern: King Kong criticized for lack of 'magical mechs' and lazy artwork reuse across all three cabinet tiers

    high · Kaneda asks 'Where are they? I'm not seeing them. Are you seeing them?' regarding standout mechanical features

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Kaneda's assessment of Keith Elwin has shifted from unreserved praise to recognition of business model constraints limiting his creative output; first significant public criticism of designer

    medium · Qualified praise ('great Keith Elwyn') immediately followed by 'cannot even deliver' — notable pivot from prior Elwin advocacy