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Episode 927: "We Need The Next Big Hit"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·20m 48s·analyzed·Mar 19, 2024
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.032

TL;DR

Kaneda warns pinball market is in crisis: overpriced mediocre themes, no hits since Godzilla, collectors losing $57K on recent buys.

Summary

Kaneda critiques the current pinball market as oversaturated with mediocre themes at inflated prices following Texas Pinball Festival. He breaks upcoming releases (Funhaus, ABBA, John Wick) and argues the industry desperately needs a blockbuster hit to sustain the new-in-box market. He warns collectors that resale values are collapsing and advises waiting for anticipated titles like Back to the Future and The Matrix rather than buying current offerings.

Key Claims

  • A collector who bought every new LE/CE game over the last two years lost $57,000

    high confidence · Kaneda stated this explicitly and references doing a full show on the analysis

  • American Pinball's Barbecue game will not sell 200 units and won't sell all 100 LEs

    medium confidence · Kaneda heard this from people who played the game at TPF with open minds

  • A U.S. distributor has ordered 400 units of Funhaus Collector Edition, representing almost $1 million commitment

    high confidence · Kaneda states this as a fact and asks listeners to email if they know which distributor

  • Multimorphic has 4-5 month lead times that are hurting sales in current market

    high confidence · Kaneda cites this as a manufacturing efficiency issue Jerry needs to solve

  • Stern's John Wick game sources are telling Kaneda it will be a dud

    medium confidence · Kaneda states 'all of my sources' have seen the game and believe it won't move units

  • Funhouse originals in good condition are selling for around $6,000 on Pinside marketplace

    high confidence · Kaneda directly references current secondary market pricing

  • No pinball game has been universally loved as a hit since Godzilla

    medium confidence · Kaneda's opinion based on recent releases underperforming

  • Steve Ritchie revealed Elton John topper uses leftover screens from Toy Story 4

    high confidence · Kaneda references a TPF seminar where Ritchie made this statement

Notable Quotes

  • “Going to a pinball show is all about hanging out with people... It's the worst place on the planet to play new games and get a sense of if the games are any good or not.”

    Kaneda @ Opening segment — Sets context for why TPF reveals aren't reliable for assessing game quality

  • “There's no just like, oh, let me just put some time on this game, buy it and lose $3,000. Like nobody's going to be doing this anymore.”

    Kaneda @ Market commentary — Core thesis about market collapse in mid-tier games

  • “Who the heck in their right mind is going to want to spend $11,000 on a funhouse. Almost twice the price of what this game is in the current marketplace.”

    Kaneda @ Funhaus discussion — Direct challenge to Pedretti/distributor pricing strategy

  • “This is basically Star Trek wearing Jersey Jack clothing... the topper is just leftover screens from Toy Story 4.”

    Kaneda @ Elton John critique — Harsh assessment of Jersey Jack's design philosophy and cost justification

  • “If they make a thousand Elton John CEs, they will never be worth $20,000. They won't even be worth over $15,000 ever.”

    Kaneda @ Secondary market analysis — Deflates speculation about Elton John CE appreciation

  • “This hobby needs a hit. And we haven't had a hit game that is universally loved across the board. It just hasn't happened since Godzilla.”

    Kaneda @ Closing theme — Central crisis narrative of the episode

  • “Pirates of the Caribbean is packed. There's so much in that game. And as much as I love the way Elton John shoots, you have to admit there's nothing really in it.”

    Kaneda @ Game comparison — Structural critique of Elton John's value proposition vs. past JJP hit

  • “The greatest way we're gonna get these hit games, people, is keep your money in your wallet. Don't buy unless those hit games come out.”

Entities

KanedapersonTexas Pinball Festival (TPF)eventAmerican PinballcompanyPedretti Gaming / Rick (Pedretti)person|companyMultimorphiccompanyPinball BrotherscompanyStern Pinballcompany

Signals

  • $

    market_signal: Kaneda claims collector who bought all new LE/CE games over last 2 years lost $57,000. No recent games holding or appreciating in value.

    high · Direct statement with reference to prior full episode analysis

  • ?

    product_concern: Funhaus remake priced at $11K CE vs ~$6K secondary market originals; questions fundamental demand and valuation logic

    high · Kaneda references Pinside marketplace pricing and poses rhetorical challenge to pricing strategy

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Major shift toward market pause; Kaneda explicitly states personal buying freeze and advises others to withhold purchases until 'hit' games arrive

    high · Kaneda states 'I'm basically pausing like never before' and ends show with explicit call to 'keep your money in your wallet'

  • ?

    product_launch: Three major releases confirmed for March-April: Funhaus (Pedretti/March), ABBA (Pinball Brothers/April 6-7), John Wick (Stern/April)

    high · Kaneda states all three will be announced with pre-orders before end of April

  • ?

    business_signal: Unknown U.S. distributor ordered 400 Funhaus CEs (~$1M commitment); Kaneda predicts this is a risky gamble that will not sell through

    medium · Kaneda states order size but acknowledges distributor is unknown; assessment is speculative but based on market comparables

  • ?

Topics

Market collapse and pricing crisisprimaryTexas Pinball Festival coverage and new game revealsprimaryUpcoming game announcements (Funhaus, ABBA, John Wick)primarySecondary market resale values and collector lossesprimaryJersey Jack Pinball criticism and cost justificationsecondaryAnticipated 2024 releases (Back to the Future, The Matrix, Alice in Wonderland)secondaryAmerican Pinball's viability and product receptionsecondaryMultimorphic manufacturing and delivery challengesmentioned

Sentiment

negative(-0.75)— Kaneda is highly critical of current market conditions, pricing, theme selections, and game quality. He expresses frustration with manufacturers and disappointment in recent releases. The tone is cynical and cautionary, advising consumers to withhold purchases. Only minor positive notes on specific games (Godzilla legacy, a few themes like Jaws/Pulp Fiction rated 'grade A') but overwhelmingly pessimistic about market trajectory.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.062

Welcome everybody to Canada's Pinball Podcast. We are post-Texas Pinball Festival. A Texas Pinball Festival without the twippies. But we did get a lot of new games rocking up to the show. We're going to talk about that. Now, look, I wasn't at the show, so I can't tell you if the show was any good or not. But I'll say this. I've been to enough TPFs. I've been to enough expos. Going to a pinball show is all about hanging out with people. It's about grabbing some beers and whiskey and talking about pinball in real life to a bunch of nerds like us and having a good time. So I'm sure if you were at the show, you had a great time. It's the worst place on the planet to play new games and get a sense of if the games are any good or not. Because if you've been to a show, the games are so loud, all the games are on at the same time. You're really not immersed in any of the gameplay experience unless you're like Kaneda and you sneak into the show early on when nobody's there and you get to play the games. You know, pinball media should be invited to play these games separate from the show opening. Do you know in my 10 years of doing this show, I've never been invited at a pinball show to get in early and play a manufacturer's game. They throw me in there with the rest of the public and I'm trying to get my opinions on a game while I've got some people behind me making me anxious. Or I've got some jerko in front of me who's playing a four-player game and he's just one person. That's how they treat the world's favorite pinball podcaster with absolutely zero special treatment. So let's talk a little bit about TPF. We're going to get to the news that Canada broke this weekend. The first Bally Williams remake. It's not one of the spectacular titles that you guys were expecting it to be. But it's also a little bit of a unique thing the way this game is coming out. And we're going to talk a little bit about Elton John and Jaws Pinball. And then what's right around the corner. because we know once TPF hits, once we get past March, we're then now looking for the next Stern Cornerstone game, and we're thinking ahead. We're not thinking behind us anymore. We're thinking about what's coming out in spring, summer in the pinball world. All right, so at Texas Pinball Festival, the new games were David Fix's Disaster Barbecue Game. We're going to talk a little bit about that. We had Multimorphics, The Princess Bride. And as far as new games go that you've never seen before, That was it. Like, those were the two main new titles. Those were really the two big reveals at TPF, or the new games that people had not played before. We got a lot more people getting time on Jaws, on Elton John. We got more people getting time on Pulp Fiction, more time on Looney Tunes, more time on Texas Chainsaw Massacre. So look, a lot of new games that are out in the world. A lot of new games that each and every one of you are contemplating whether or not you want to go in on these games. And I think a lot of you out there, when you think about the lineup in pinball, this is the highest pinball has ever been in terms of how much these games cost. Let's just go down the lineup. And you tell me if these pinball companies are giving us the dream themes we want for this much money. All right, let's go. Looney Tunes, Texas Chainsaw Massacre, Jaws, Pulp Fiction. Those two are great. Those two are pretty grade A themes if you ask me. Then we've got Elton John, Barry O's Barbecue Challenge, and The Princess Bride. You know, I wish I was saying like Die Hard, Top Gun, Matrix, Harry Potter, Christmas Vacation, Transformers G1 The Movie, G.I. Joe, A-Team, Cobra Kai, Karate Kid. You know, like there's so many themes that I wish I was saying right now. But I think it's a mixed bag right now in pinball. Oh, I forgot Labyrinth, right? We'll throw Labyrinth into the mix. A lot of people were playing that. And by the way, that build out at TPF where Labyrinth was, absolutely phenomenal build out where they were displaying that game. I don't even think Labyrinth has sold out, right? It's a whole new pinball world now. I don't think Texas Chainsaw has sold out. I don't think Looney Tunes has sold out. We all know Jaws is not selling that well. You know, I'm hearing distributors are sitting on Jurassic Park 30th anniversary editions. It's a whole new pinball world, people. And so here's what I heard from this show. I heard people absolutely don't like this barbecue game by American Pinball. It's an absolute joke. We're not going to spend a lot of time on it. I don't even think they're going to sell like 200 units. This thing is dead on arrival. They're not going to sell all 100 LEs. I don't understand it. And look, I spoke to people who played it with an open mind. They went up to the game and they wanted to walk away after ball number two. And again, I just don't think there's any future for American Pinball. as long as this team is over there this company is never going to make a hit pinball machine They just don have the creative vision to make hit pinballs And I just wondering how long Mukesh is going to have the patience before he pulls the plug on this entire thing So that's American Pinball. Now, Multimorphic the Princess Bride. Again, didn't hear that much. Like, just not hearing that much about this game. And the whole thing now is Jerry's got to figure out how to get to more manufacturing efficiencies. because if you order one now and you have to wait four or five months to get your game, I just don't think that's going to cut it anymore in pinball. I think the distance between when you give a deposit and when you get your game has to be shorter than where it is right now with Multimorphic. But the platform is always going to be Jerry's issue. You know, it's like a lot of people have issues with this platform. And a lot of people are just better human beings than Kaneda and they won't say anything. See, that's always when you have the biggest problem is when people just don't even care and they walk away. They're not going to say they don't like it, but they're not going to buy it. You're not even getting a reaction or any feedback. And we know that over the years, this has not been a very favorable platform for pinball. And I think at this much money, you know, you really are going to have to want to get all the portfolio of games to make sense if you go in on a multi-morphic unit. And so that's why I think it's going to be a really hard sell for people to plop down like $10,000 to $13,000 for this thing, knowing that like Back to the Future is coming, knowing that The Matrix is coming, and knowing that there's just a lot of other games out there that you're not going to lose your shirt on if you want to sell it one day. Because we've never seen anyone get anywhere close to the return on their investment when they go to sell their multi-morphic platform. It's just a losing proposition. and I don't care what anyone says, that matters. Like it matters. Like resale value now is something everybody has to take into account. It's like I said, if you bought every new in box game over the last two years, I mean all the LEs and all the CEs, right? All the supposed collectors additions of these games, you lost $57,000 people. We did the math. We did a whole show on this thing. You lost $57,000. All right, so nothing huge came out of TPF. So now we're turning a corner to what's next in the pinball world. And I think the pinball world is in for a rough year unless the game is a triple A theme. Unless the game is a take my money now kind of game. I don't think there's any middle room anymore. There's no just like, oh, let me just put some time on this game, buy it and lose $3,000. Like nobody's going to be doing this anymore. So here's what's around the corner. And you tell me that we're still not hitting or firing on the right cylinders at these pinball prices. So here are the next three games that are going to come out in the pinball world in the order in which they're going to come out. And all of these games are going to be revealed. Money will be taken on these games before the end of April. So the remainder of March and to the end of April, the next three titles are Funhaus from Pedretti Gaming. Kaneda broke the exclusive to the world. We're going to talk about that. That game is going to be revealed by the end of this month in March. So Funhaus coming back. Do we want one? Do we need more Funhaus games? You're about to get them. And we're also then going to get ABBA from the Pinball Brothers, which I think they're going to announce. I think it's April 6th or 7th, which is the 50th anniversary of ABBA winning Eurovision. That's going to come out in just a couple weeks. and then we've got Stern's next cornerstone which is John Wick which they are going to reveal to the world in April now right there let's just stop right there are any of you truly deep down in your guts are you truly excited about Funhaus remake ABBA and John Wick the only thing I'm excited about right now is my wallet is marked safe from buying any of these themes like where are the themes that are take my money now themes. And look, this would have been fine three, four years ago when pinball was so much cheaper and you were somewhat willing to go in on new games and support every company's propositions. But nowadays, like, are you going to be running at this stuff? I don't think so. So let's start with Funhaus. So everybody thought it was going to be Twilight Zone. And trust me, I think Twilight Zone is coming. And Funhaus was not supposed to be the first Bally Williams remake that Pedretti Gaming put out into the world. But here's why they're doing it. There is a U.S. distributor. I don't know which one. We should guess which one it is. If you know which one it is, please email me at canadapinball at gmail.com. But there is a U.S. distributor that basically is commissioning and working with Rick at Planetary to bring back Funhaus as the first remake and this distributor has put in a significant order. They've already ordered 400 units of Fun House Collector Edition which will then sell for a pop That almost a million commitment on the part of this company to sell Fun Houses for Here what we know so far about this Fun House remake It is the first Bally Williams remake from Pedretti Gaming There's going to be three versions of the game, which I also think is a mistake. There's going to be a standard at $8,000, which is just the regular game. Then there's going to be a premium at $9,500 and a CE at $11,000 that will feature Brian Allen's artwork on the premium and the CE. There will be 500 CEs. All of these games will be running on fast boards and have CPR playfields and have genuine Bally Williams parts. So here's the problem though right now I see on all of this. If you go on to the pin side marketplace right now, you can go get a good condition funhouse for around $6,000. Who the heck in their right mind is going to want to spend $11,000 on a funhouse. Almost twice the price of what this game is in the current marketplace. And what happened to pinball, right? If you're going to remake a game, how are you going to remake one that isn't even in that much demand and charge this much money? You know, and I don't know if it has the 2.0 kit like Rudy's Nightmare. I'm assuming that will be some of like the upgraded code that will go into these games. But they already released those kits. And those kits weren't even that successful. There's just not enough demand for this stuff. And so that's going to happen. Now, I think this is a huge gamble for whoever this distributor is who put in this big order for these games. And I don't think they're going to sell well. I just don't. I don't think there's this much demand for Funhaus in 2024. All right. So we got that coming out in the next couple of weeks. Are you going to lock your money up there? Some non-refundable thing. And then by the time you realize that they're going to sell for less than MSRP and they're going to sell for less than MSRP because there's no way there's no way 500 Funhaus games. at $11,000 are going to hold value. It's just not going to work. And then we got the Pinball Brothers, which has been teasing their next game for a really long time. I'm not sure why they're teasing this game with the fonts from Stranger Things. Like everything they're doing has this Stranger Things vibe to it. And it's going to be ABBA. And then it's going to have that helicopter mechanism in it. Again, I love their music. I'm just not sure this is what the pinball buying demographic wants. I know this band is very popular in Europe, even more so than in America. They will sell a ton in Sweden. But again, gang, at this much money, with all the games that are out there that are great, like there are basically Jurassic Park 30th sitting in a box that you could probably get 2000 off sticker on. Would you rather have Jurassic Park or ABBA? And I'm just saying, would you rather have like the Matrix or Back to the Future or ABBA? And I've been saying this since the beginning of the year. Because all of us know that Back to the Future is coming. Why wouldn't you just wait until that game comes out? We all think that Matrix is coming next from JJP. Just wait for that. Those are themes you'd rather have. And so I don't know. I don't think ABBA is going to be a huge success. We'll see what's in the game. That mechanism does look promising. I'm just curious, like, who's designing this game from the ground up? We shall see in just a couple weeks. So that's coming. And then we got John Wick from Stern Pinball. And all of my sources, and I've talked to people who have seen this game, all of my sources are telling me that this game is going to be a dud. And I'm almost happy to watch Stern Pinball try to figure out how to move units in a world in which their games are going to never go cheaper in price. How are you going to sell John Wick for $13K and make 1,000 LEs? How are you going to sell $9,500 premiums of a John Wick game? It's not going to work. It's just going to be so brutal. What happens middle of this year to some of these pinball companies and these distributors and these manufacturers who need to sell hundreds of products? And so here's where I'm at lately, people. I mean, I got to buy a house. I have other expenses. I've had a really good few months at work. I've made some good money and I don't want to buy any of this stuff. I'm basically pausing like never before. As much as I enjoy Elton John, I'm also not going to jump in on an Elton John for $15,000. Sure, it's a beautiful game. sure it's great and it's always going to be a great beautiful shooting game. I just don't need to own it right now because if Matrix is around the corner, I would much rather own a Matrix machine than an Elton John machine. And I think Jersey Jack needs to put more into the games. As much as I love Elton John and I do love Elton John gang, I still think it's a total ripoff for $12,000 to $15,000. I mean, it is basically Star Trek wearing Jersey Jack clothing and you lift the hood on an Elton John and we saw the seminar at TPF when they talked about making the piano mechanism and there's like kids in China making it or whatever they said and then the topper is just leftover screens from Toy Story 4 I mean hello Steve Ritchie never should have said that they've got to media train these people I don't want to feel like the parts for this game are just leftover parts from that game that not a key message brother that not what you want to say And then I look at that topper on the CE and it doesn make any sense It just playing random clips Like they not even synced up with the songs that he singing in the game And look, it's beautiful, but so is the Matrix. Harry Potter's going to be beautiful. People, don't forget, Jersey Jack games are always beautiful. They're always pretty. They're always heavy as can be. But I want a Jersey Jack game with just more in it. It will always be easy to go get an Elton John. They're always going to be available. You know, it's funny. There's a lot of honeymoon period going on with the new owners. I saw this one new owner go, these CEs are going to sell out instantly. Instantly. Well, they already have not. And he's like, they're going to be worth $20,000 one day. This is what someone is saying on Pinside. They're going to sell out and then they're going to be worth $20,000. And I'm here to tell this person right now, if they make a thousand Elton John CEs, they will never be worth $20,000. They won't even be worth over $15,000 ever. It's just not that kind of market anymore. And no game moves like that anymore. Especially a game that didn't have much demand when it came out. People forget. Pirates had huge demand when it was revealed. When Pirate Order Banks opened up, we all ordered one. Then there was like a year delay. And then they only made 1,000 of them. In total. The only reason Pirate CE is worth so much money. There's only 200. There will always be 800 more Elton John CEs in the world than Pirates of the Caribbean. Not to mention, gang, Pirates of the Caribbean is packed. There's so much in that game. And as much as I love the way Elton John shoots, you have to admit there's nothing really in it. Like there's not a lot of mechs in that game. So it's a beautiful shooting game. It's a lot of fun. But man, it's like the best $10,000 game Jersey Jack ever made. And I just can't see myself writing a check for $15,000 or $12,000 for one. And we all know Matrix is next. Like, it's going to be Matrix. If it's not Matrix, it's going to be Muppets. But it's going to be one of those two games. And I would just rather wait to see what happens. Because trust me, you're never going to have to pay over $12,000 or $15,000 to get an Elton John, ever. Remember when people were trying to lie to us like Jurassic Park 30th was going to be an instant sellout? Elvira Black and White Edition. None of those games are hard to get. None of them went up in value. So trust me, just wait it out and you'll be able to get whatever you want. And for me, it's all about Alice in Wonderland, Back to the Future, and The Matrix. Those are the three that I really wanna see this year. Those are the three that I need to make sure are good before I buy them. And I think out of those, obviously my order of preference would go Back to the Future, The Matrix, and then Alice in Wonderland. If there was one that I could see I don't get, it's easily Alice in Wonderland because there's so many question marks on this game. And again, it's not like a dream theme of mine. It would just be cool to own a rare, beautiful work of art game if they can do it right. And I have not seen yet that they can absolutely do it right. So I'm not telling you to order one today, but it's going to happen. I've seen photos of it. It is coming. But is it going to be better than Back to the Future? I don't think so. Is it going to be better than The Matrix? I don't think so. a lot's coming around the corner, but we need a big hit. And that's my thing about all of this going on in pinball right now. We need a big hit. We haven't had a big, big hit since Godzilla. Nothing has really been the next Godzilla. It's not Jaws. It's not Elton John. It's not Looney Tunes. It's not Texas Chainsaw. It's not Pulp Fiction. This hobby needs a hit. And we haven't had a hit game that is universally loved across the board. It just hasn't happened since Godzilla. And again, at these prices, this hobby needs one big hit a year to become the center of gravity, or else the new in box market is going to be in trouble. It's just the way it's going to be, people. Everybody look, I'm still recovering from St. Patrick's Day. Have a great week. We're going to be back more this week with more episodes of Canada's Pinball Podcast. On my next episode, we'll revisit those 80s movie themes and kick off where we left off and see which one of these would make a good pinball experience. And come on, there are so many of them that are better than freaking Funhaus, ABBA, and John Wick. We need more hit games. And the greatest way we're gonna get these hit games, people, is keep your money in your wallet. Don't buy unless those hit games come out. and it's going to force these companies to either give us hits or go out of business. There's no middle ground. Well, half of them won't go out of business because they're all backed financially by other entities that don't even need the pinball money. Everybody will talk to you soon. Later. you

Kaneda @ Closing advice — Direct call to consumer action; market pressure strategy

Jersey Jack Pinball (JJP)
company
Steve Ritchieperson
Brian Allenperson
David Fixperson
Godzillagame
Funhausgame
The Princess Bridegame
ABBAgame
John Wickgame
Elton Johngame
Back to the Futuregame
The Matrixgame
Alice in Wonderlandgame
Jawsgame
Looney Tunesgame
Pirates of the Caribbeangame
Jurassic Park 30th Anniversary Editiongame
Mukeshperson

manufacturing_signal: Multimorphic facing 4-5 month lead times; Jerry needs manufacturing efficiency improvements or risk losing sales

high · Kaneda cites this as industry consensus issue; identifies as core problem for platform adoption

  • ?

    leak_detection: Kaneda claims to have broken exclusive on Funhaus announcement; game was not widely known before this episode

    high · States 'Kaneda broke the exclusive to the world' on Funhaus reveal

  • ?

    design_philosophy: Jersey Jack Elton John criticized as structurally shallow (basic shooting game) but priced at premium ($12-15K); Kaneda views as rip-off relative to deeper games like Pirates

    high · Detailed comparison showing Pirates has 'so much in that game' vs Elton John 'there's nothing really in it' despite similar or higher price

  • ?

    industry_signal: Current theme lineup (Funhaus, ABBA, John Wick, Elton John) missing 'A-tier' IP; Kaneda wishes for Die Hard, Top Gun, Matrix, Harry Potter, Transformers G1, etc.

    high · Kaneda explicitly states 'mixed bag right now' and lists desired themes vs actual releases

  • ?

    product_strategy: Funhaus at 500 CEs; Elton John at likely 1000+ CEs; overproduction of limited editions destroying rarity and secondary market values

    medium · Kaneda compares Elton John CE volume (unknown exact but assumed 1000+) to Pirates CE (200) and notes Elton won't appreciate like Pirates did

  • ?

    regulatory_signal: Steve Ritchie made problematic public statement about using leftover Toy Story 4 screens in Elton John topper; Kaneda criticizes and suggests media training needed

    high · Kaneda references TPF seminar statement and directly quotes Ritchie admitting parts sourcing from unrelated game

  • ?

    rumor_hype: Kaneda predicts Matrix or Muppets as next JJP after Elton John; high confidence in Matrix, lower in Muppets alternative

    medium · Kaneda states 'We all know Matrix is next. If it's not Matrix, it's going to be Muppets' — uses collective knowledge framing suggesting industry consensus