Episode 1198: "What Did I Miss?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·24m 19s·held·Mar 16, 2026

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 (batch) · $0.015

TL;DR

Kaneda reflects on perspective post-Ireland trip; discusses Pokemon's operator success, manufacturing fixes, and speculates on Godzilla Gold and Ghostbusters rumors.

Summary

Kaneda returns from a personal trip to Ireland and reflects on perspective, balance, and the pinball community's tendency toward negativity and infighting. He discusses Pokemon pinball's strong location performance despite early manufacturing issues with Stern, secondary market pricing volatility, and upcoming rumors including Godzilla Gold, James Bond Goldfinger Spike 3, and Jersey Jack Ghostbusters. He emphasizes the importance of theme/IP quality for future game success and concerns about used machine pricing remaining sustainable below $10,000.

Key Claims

Pokemon pinball is earning operators $100+ per day on location versus typical $100 per week on other games
medium confidence · Kaneda citing operator reports of revenue performance
Pokemon LE machines are shipping out next week (from mid-March timeframe)
medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction based on production timeline
Stern had a manufacturing defect on early Pokemon builds where orbit guide holes were drilled in wrong location
high confidence · Kaneda citing discussion with George Gomez; says fix is figured out and being distributed
Pokemon LE secondary market prices are volatile, ranging from $3,000 to $9,000+ over retail
high confidence · Kaneda reporting observed market listings
Stern is likely making a Godzilla Gold version on Spike 3 platform
medium confidence · Kaneda calling this a 'rumor' but says it's 'gaining a lot of traction'
Jersey Jack Ghostbusters is a recurring rumor in the pinball community
medium confidence · Kaneda noting the rumor 'keeps coming up over and over and over again'
Stern's communication about the Pokemon manufacturing issue was poor, creating unnecessary panic among LE buyers
high confidence · Kaneda citing Stern emails saying 'we're not sure' if fix would be implemented before LE production
Used pinball machines will not sustain pricing above $10,000 in secondary market long-term
medium confidence · Kaneda's market analysis and observation of Pinside listings

Notable Quotes

“Operators who sometimes make $100 a week on a game are reporting that this game is making them $100 a day.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Demonstrates exceptional operator appeal and revenue generation of Pokemon pinball vs typical games
“Who would you rather be in life? Someone who is confident in their enjoyment of Pokemon pinball... or the person in life that's angry?”
Kaneda @ later-episode — Core thesis about community division and choosing perspective over negativity bias
“The way they get sales now is with FOMO and the way to get FOMO is to keep everything a secret.”
Kaneda @ manufacturing-defect-section — Critical observation about modern pinball marketing strategy and its relationship to quality control
“We're not sure we're going to be able to fix it in time. Come on. Come on, you can't say that.”
Kaneda (paraphrasing Stern official communication) @ pokemon-defect-section — Highlight of problematic Stern crisis communication that fueled panic among LE buyers
“It's like everybody knows now that the only way you're ever going to get sales in a world of Harry Potters and Pokemons and games like Back to the Future and games like Sonic the Hedgehog, it's like great theme or you're done.”
Kaneda @ licensing-discussion-section — Market insight about IP/theme being critical differentiator for new game success
“The problem is they need to make so many games and when they have some of these dud games like The Walking Dead and Star Wars and games that don't hit, the easiest way to make money is go back to where there's demand.”
Kaneda @ godzilla-discussion-section — Analysis of Stern's business incentive to remake successful games despite burning previous customers
“I'm not paying anywhere near $13,000 for my Pokemon LE, and that's how you do it. And that's how the smart people do it.”
Kaneda @ pokemon-pricing-section — Kaneda's endorsement of secondary market purchasing strategy to avoid retail premium

Entities

Kanedaperson George Gomezperson Jack GuarnieripersonBill BrandespersonStern PinballcompanyJersey Jack PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyBarrels of Funcompany

Signals

?
product_concern: Pokemon pinball orbit guide hole drilled in wrong location on early production units; affecting very few machines on location; Stern has figured out fix and is distributing to affected machines
high · Kaneda states he discussed with George Gomez; 'The fix is already figured out. They are sending out those fixes to everybody out there who's got an early build.'
?
industry_signal: Stern provided poor crisis communication regarding Pokemon manufacturing issue, telling LE buyers 'we're not sure' if fix would be implemented before LE production, creating unnecessary panic
high · Kaneda: 'That is what causes the hysteria. That is what causes the panic... for that response to be, we're not sure we're going to be able to fix it in time. Come on.'
$
market_signal: Pokemon LE secondary market highly volatile with prices ranging $3,000-$9,000+ over retail; no defined floor yet as machines just beginning to ship
high · Kaneda: 'I saw someone sell as low as $3,000 for their Pokemon spot. I saw one move for 5,000 over, one for 6,000 over. People are still asking for eight or 9,000 over.'
?
operational_signal: Pokemon pinball generating exceptional operator revenue of approximately $100/day ($500-600/week) vs typical $100/week on other games; potentially among highest-earning games for operators alongside Godzilla
medium · Kaneda: 'Operators who sometimes make $100 a week on a game are reporting that this game is making them $100 a day.'
?
rumor_hype: Godzilla Gold Spike 3 remake rumor gaining traction; Kaneda predicts high likelihood Stern will move their #1 best-selling game to new platform

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.073

0:00

I'm still young, wasting my youth, I'll grow up next summer. I'm fed on those drugs, I quit, I kept my dear life's number. I sit, I sit, I sit, I sit, I sit, I sit, I sit up. Welcome everybody to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. I am back from Dublin, Ireland on what was one of the most amazing, like, whirlwind trips I've ever been on. Red Eye Flight Wednesday gets me into Dublin Thursday morning 9 a.m. Check into the Westbury Hotel. The room was not satisfactory. Mariana, the most amazing like hotel client experience woman I've ever met, upgrades us to this like two bedroom suite that was insane that we got for two nights. Go to MGK Thursday night, dinner out with Brenda's girlfriends Friday night, Super Saturday, went to the rugby match at the Aviva, we saw Ireland beat good old, who did they beat? They beat Scotland, and then all we needed was freaking England to beat France to win the Six Nations and they came up short, but man oh man oh man, what a trip. I feel like I need another vacation just to reset myself, but I'm back in the pinball saddle, baby. I will say this. I encourage each and every one of you. These machines are a lot of money. There's a lot of bickering back and forth, always in the pinball world. And sometimes you just got to turn it all off. I didn't bring my work computer with me. I didn't really check Facebook at all. I didn't want the outside world infiltrating the happiness I was having in Ireland. And I'll tell you this, in Ireland, they do not care about pinball. They do not care about anything other than having a good time. It is an amazing country. It felt so incredible to reconnect with my wife's culture. My children are half Irish and they are a really, really interesting culture because Now without my

2:41

I know Dingle, it's the name of an amazing place, Galway, which is where Brenda is from, but just get lost in Ireland for like 10 days and come back with a different point of view on life. And so coming back from this trip, thinking about my point of view on pinball, a few things just hit me immediately. This trip is not cheap. I'm spending a lot of money in just a few days and it was worth it. We spend so much money on these machines and I really do have to put more things in perspective. Yeah, the trip is gone, right? I'm not gonna have anything tangible left over from this trip other than an Irish flag feather boa I was wearing around Dublin Saturday night. But what you do get is something more valuable than money can buy. Well, money did have to buy it, but you get the memories, the videos, the moments that live forever. And I really do think that for most of us out there, you've got a really blessed life. If you're really into pinball, right? If you're into pinball and you're especially someone who's collecting pinball machines, you have a very blessed life. Most people out there do not have enough money to buy even one of these machines. And so there are many of you listening right now that have a row of pinball machines. Now I think most people that have that also have great balance in their lives. You go on vacations, you know how to appreciate what is out there in the world and you know what matters. And a lot of the fighting and the bickering back and forth in this hobby is kind of funny It is sad that there was so little of it because, in most cases, the game you want to play would have developed and wouldn't have been present even a year before it was published. Most players are handsome and Biden is having a little компьютitous, like no one else, in his room in the ladies room in Elmbrandsu 108 drop room counter of the Emerald House or foist. Detoi thank you for start the appζon ist y? How do you explain it? Well, in the Fantasy dagger quit by making the survivor the same name of give and take in the military, in the game you hit by that chip explain it bycraft Does not not leave you Year 2020

4:45

8 players survey 5 players n All of these are pinball games that are being made to catch issues like this. There really hasn't been many moments in pinball where companies do this because the way they get sales now is with FOMO and the way to get FOMO is to keep everything a secret. So instead of putting stuff out on location to get all the feedback you need to make sure The Final Production Games Adjust Things Things are already on the line Things being sold to consumers sold to operators already on the line And some of these things absolutely should have been caught at the factory right And I think what happens and when I talked to Jack about this with X there definitely an issue that things can happen between the prototype games which were the games that Stern had at the Pokemon Media Day Stuff can happen between the prototype game and the final production build And all it takes is like one dude putting in where the screw goes in the CAD design, and maybe something gets moved or adjusted or isn't put in the right place, or maybe it's just the guy that's lining up the playfields into the manufacturing machine, whatever it is. So, what's the point of this? What's the point of this? Whatever happened, it was clear. They were drilling the hole in the wrong location. It needed to be over further so that the guide lined up with the post. Now, the good news is this. This is only impacting very, very few machines that are out there on location and all of them are going to get a fix from Stern pinball. Talk to George Gomez about it. The fix is already figured out. They are sending out those fixes to everybody out there who's got an early build. There was some really, really poor communication though from Stern when people were wondering, are you going to fix this before the LE machines go on the line? And Stern's own communication was, we're not sure. I mean, these are emails coming from official Stern people. How are you going to say that? And see, that is what causes the hysteria. That is what causes the panic. Because as you've got 750 LE buyers that are about to drop $13,000 on a product which is already way overpriced, we all know this, the Stern quality $13,000, it's crazy. You just want to make sure your game plays right and for the official communication, because anything that comes from a Stern employee is official communication, for that response to be, we're not sure we're going to be able to fix it in time. Come on. Come on, you can't say that. You gotta run a tighter ship whenever there's an issue or a crisis impacting the game. So good news is this though. All of the premiums, all of the LEs, all of the future pro builds, everything will have this fixed. So this will be a non-issue. It was an issue for a few days and now it will be a non-issue. Okay, now are there any other issues with the game? I don't think so right now. What I'm hearing is this too. This game is killing it on location. Operators who sometimes make $100 a week on a game are reporting that this game is making them $100 a day. So think about that. $100 a day. So $500 a week. Hey, if you're open six days a week, $600, you're probably going to get more money on the weekends than the weekdays. So imagine if that holds. How much money this game is going to make operators? I think Godzilla is the game that has made operators the most amount of money and Pokemon could be one of those games that is just an amazing earner for operators everywhere. And I think it's going to be that the game is a very favorable layout. It's inviting for everybody to play and it's freaking Pokemon. It's going to pull the people in. So that's good news if you're an operator. Now, for most of us out there, we are not operators. So what else is happening in the Pokemon market? Well, I've noticed the prices are all over the place. We're in this volatility space. I saw someone sell as low as $3,000 for their Pokemon spot.

9:28

I saw one move for 5,000 over, one for 6,000 over. People are still asking for eight or 9,000 over. So the market right now on Pokemon is all over the place. The thing is this, nobody's losing any money. It just depends how serious you really are because as I've been saying, next week I think these games are going to start shipping out. Now look, I look forward to getting this game. I can't wait to set up number 50 which is Diglett, is going to be Killian's machine. We are going to take Guns N' Roses out and we are going to set up. So in terms of the value of where these LDs are going to net out, here's what I still think is going to happen. I still think that this game is never going to be without demand. And I mean the LE version of the game. I know there are people out there, Bill Brandes, I'm going to name your name. There are people out there that are really, really rooting for this game to just crash. For this game to be not fun. For this game to be played and exposed. I think that's the word I'm looking for. These people think that this game is like a fake game. It's like a hack of a game that this game is going to be exposed by the pinball community for not being good. And then everything's going to crash. And I'm here to tell you right now that is never going to happen because I'm hearing a lot more good things from people who have played this game that they really enjoy it. But here's also what's going to happen. And this is true about life. When I walked into that two bedroom at the Westbury in Dublin and I didn't like it, I could have done two things. I could have just accepted it and stayed in that crappy room or I could have said something and change everything and have fun. And then what happened then when I got the better room? My point of view changed. And this is the part I mean, not about the room swap. But once I got something that I really enjoyed and I saw it, it changed my entire perspective. And so then everything I did after that, I was always in a good mood. And my point is this with anything in life, whether it's a restaurant or a pinball machine or anything where it's subjective, half of it is going to be what the company serves you up, right? This is the dish. This is the movie. This is the TV show. This is the blazer, whatever it is. The other half is going to be what mood you are in. What mood you are in when you walk up to a new pinball machine, it like dictates almost 80 of how you will feel about the game So if you walk up to it if you walk up to it and you already biased against it and you already said a bunch of smack about this game on pin side of course, you're going to get out of that experience exactly what you went into it looking for. But if you walk up to it with a little bit of an open mind and say, hey, we've never had an anime and pinball, We've never had a game that brings in more people into this hobby quite like the Pokemon theme. And I'm just going to see if this game is fun to shoot and go from there. See, I think that's what's going to happen with this game. And I think it is absolutely going to divide this community. I think you're going to get a lot of people angry that you enjoy it. And my advice to everybody out there is this. Who would you rather be? Who would you rather be in life? Someone who is confident in their enjoyment of Pokemon pinball And you own one, you have a good time on it, your kids have a good time on it, and you wake up and you're in a good mood. Would you rather be that person in life or the person in life that's angry? They're mad this game exists. They're mad at Stern Pinball for not catching that thing at the factory with the orbit. They're mad that this game cost $13,000 for an LE. They're mad that they maybe didn't get an LE for sticker price. All of this is just a game that's not good enough. It should have had more in it. This game doesn't have enough like magic in it. This game doesn't have insider connected set up right away. The way it's supposed to be, everything about this game makes that person angry. And so they walk away and they go on the pin side, which is basically like the internet version of Alcoholics Anonymous. And they complain about the game every day. Who do you want to be? That person or the person that just enjoys it? So I plan to be person number one. I plan to unbox this game, see the big smile on Killian's face, knowing that I didn't even have to spend $13,000 for this game, because you know me, I'm Kaneda, a little bit of a wheeler and dealer. You think I was going to have only one Pokemon? Come on, ladies and gentlemen, I'm not paying anywhere near $13,000 for my Pokemon LE, and that's how you do it. And that's how the smart people do it. And no one got hurt, nobody got burned, everybody's in a good mood. Okay, so Pokemon Ali shipping in a week. Another rumor out there that Stern is gonna make Godzilla gold. This thing is starting to gain a lot of traction, that Stern Pinball is gonna make another Godzilla. I've been saying it for a while, they're gonna put Godzilla on Spike 3. It's their number one game of all time, and they've got their new platform. Why wouldn't they easily just move it over And make a new version to celebrate Godzilla on Spike 3. Well, you know the reason why they shouldn't, because now you're burning everybody who bought Godzilla Elite and Godzilla's 70th anniversary. So what do you do? You make another version of the game. It's like we're back in that Elvira territory where you make so many versions of the game that nobody wants any of the special versions because none of the special versions are special because you made so many special versions. Now that being said, I would say there is a very good chance that this rumor is true, that Stern is gonna make another Godzilla, and for those of you out there who are like, we don't need more Godzillas, you're wrong. They will sell these things, and they will sell easily, because a lot of new people come into this hobby every single year, and those people don't always want to buy a used game. And they see this new game. They see it for the first time on the internet. It's this beautiful gold sparkly version of Godzilla. And why not? Why not buy it with the best new audio visual system Stern has? It's gonna look different. They'll probably make a new topper for it. So this is gonna be interesting, because Stern hasn't done this yet. They have not moved over yet their hits from Spike 2 to Spike 3. The reason why also is there are not many, there are not many Spike 2 hits. But there's one other game that I think if you're going to give the gold treatment to, they're going to do. And you probably know what it is. If you're going to make a gold version of a game you've made before on Spike 2, there's a little movie called Goldfinger. And how would you not make a James Bond Goldfinger Spike 3 edition? This is going to be a real test of if Stern Pinball is okay burning more of the previous customers to get present day sales. It's really a conundrum for Seth and George. They're really going to have to walk a fine line. I think the mistake they're making is this. I think if you go this direction, the only way to make it kind of work is to take it to the Super Ellie level. If you do that and you say, hey, look, we know we're not making more of this. We're going to do from now on a final final. The problem is, even if you announce that like Super Ellie of Godzilla and James Bond, the problem then is if everybody knows that's coming down the road, then who the heck wants to buy Pokemon Ellie for just like 13 And that's it. See, when you do it that way, you never run into burning anybody. You've done what you said you're going to do. The problem is they need to make so many games and when they have some of these dud games like The Walking Dead and Star Wars and games that don't hit, the easiest way to make money is go back to where there's demand or make new games that have tremendous demand. Now I would rather them just keep doing that and make better decisions Stern so you don have to burn your old customers All right so speaking of another rumor that continues it just continues in the background It like whispers in the night You know I be sleeping in my baby sleep dreaming of having more money than I really do, and all of a sudden, someone will whisper in my ear, Jersey Jack Pinball, Ghostbusters. This rumor keeps coming up over and over and over again. It's like in the shadows of the pinball world. I know Jack said on my live, why would you go back to something that's been done before? Hello Jack, Guns N' Roses? Hello Jack, The Hobbit? Hello Jack, Avatar? I mean seriously, look at Jersey Jack games. Almost half of them are revisiting themes that have been done before. And if you're gonna go grab a theme that would absolutely be one of the most incredible And now, to the next game, it would be Ghostbusters on the Jersey Jack platform. And that would be maybe Mark Siden's next game or Eric Menyers. Now Ghostbusters is not owned by Warner Brothers. So you know, that's where Jersey Jack has most of the relationships. I think Sony Pictures owns Ghostbusters and we haven't seen anything from Sony and Jersey Jack Pinball. But that rumor continues to swirl around this space. And I know that you would love, love, love a Jersey Jack Ghostbusters game. Following up Harry Potter, Sonic is gonna crush. Steve Ritchie and Sonic are just gonna be amazing. After that, this is where it's gonna get really, really fun because when I talk to the folks over at Jersey Jack, they're so excited by the next five titles. The same way Spooky folks are so excited, the same way Barrels folks are excited, the same way like everybody's excited, right? It's like everybody knows now that the only way you're ever going to get sales in a world of Harry Potters and Pokemons and games like Back to the Future and games like Sonic the Hedgehog, it's like great theme or you're done. The rumors of like barrels maybe doing Big Trouble in Little China, yeah, that's going to do well in pinball. It's going to do better than Winchester did. Those games are going out. It's great. I can't wait to see more people unbox their Winchesters. But it's really now a place where you gotta come with some fire. And so Ghostbusters in Jersey Jack feels amazing. Now look, it's definitely not happening this year. It's fun to think about. They could come out and say outright we're not making Ghostbusters. It doesn't matter. Everybody knows Sonic is next. And now that it is mid-March, we've got St. Paddy's Day tomorrow. Don't forget St. Paddy's Day on a Tuesday. Now that it's mid-March, we're really going to see if anything new comes to TPF, what it is. No one's going to care about Hexa Pinballs, Three Musketeers, it's fine. But man, games like that can't move. You can sell them in Europe because there's no tariffs, but man, you're not going to sell a lot of those games. You need something with a theme. You need something people want. You need something that's like an itch that is dying to be scratched in the world of pinball. And it's just not that. You know, those IPs are open. You could make them. Use AI probably to do all these animations now for cheap. That's the other thing we're going to see a lot in pinball. The ability to use AI slop video as the animations in pinball is going to run rampant. I mean, this is a hobby where it's expensive to do animations the right way. I think we're going to see more and more AI asset generation in pinball and you got to do it right though. And what did we hear on one of my Saturday morning spectacular lives? I think it was something like Christopher Franchi is also doing a game for another company. I want to say it might have been American Pinball or Barrels of Fun. I have to go back and look. But a lot is about to drop in this hobby, people. The games are really expensive. I mean this when I say this. The world is very expensive. Just in like three to four days in Ireland, probably spent as much money as a damn Stern Pro machine. I don't regret it. It is what it is. I gotta just think, how much do I live for today? How much do I live for tomorrow? I'm not going bankrupt. I pay my credit cards off right away. But man, when I go on pin side, the one thing I can't shake is the number of games for sale. And too many of them are listed like $10,000 or more. That's the thing that's not gonna hold. This hobby will still be predominantly a hobby where you need to be able to get machines for less than $10,000 when they are used. You are just not going to see people spending anywhere near 10 or more for all of these used machines. It's just not going to happen, everybody. And I think a lot of people out there still living in this crazy COVID space. The world is crazy. I love that what we love is analog. You know, for the most part, what we love is analog. It's a physical steel ball bouncing around a wood box, and you cannot use your cell phone as you're playing the game. That is why I think pinball has the brightest future ever. There's going to be more and more of a pushback of this world of death scrolling and doom scrolling and wasting your lives staring at phones. Go out and live. What I loved about Ireland and when I was at the Aviva watching the rugby match, nobody has their phone out. Everybody is just present enjoying the game. All of us back here, there's too much narcissism that we have to just promote that we were there and you weren't. It's so lame. We could all take a lesson from our little friends over there in Ireland, and I say little, they're not all short, but you know what I mean. Everybody have a great Monday. It feels good to be back. I'm still a little rusty. I'm still a little tired. I'm still a little jet-lagged, but we are back in the saddle, and I can't wait to see what happens as we head towards TPF. Kaneda out.