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Kaneda predicts market collapse for older Stern games as new releases flood the market; praises Spooky's brand strategy and Jersey Jack's FOMO-killing approach.
Walking Dead Remastered is underperforming; units already dropping from $13k LE price to ~$10k on secondary market one week before Pokémon release
high confidence · Kaneda discussing game sales trends and secondary market pricing
Stern Pro models will depreciate to ~$3,500 and Premium models to ~$5,000 due to oversupply of older games and excitement for new releases
medium confidence · Kaneda's market prediction based on inventory trends
Stern claimed 70% of remaster development cost was equivalent to new game development, but Kaneda questions this claim's feasibility
high confidence · Kaneda directly quoting/disputing Stern's development cost claim
Back to the Future (Dutch Pinball) whitewood reportedly needs additional mechanical features/magic
medium confidence · Kaneda citing rumor mill information; acknowledges secondhand nature of intel
Jersey Jack is spending close to $500k to license the John Williams Sonic the Hedgehog theme song
medium confidence · Kaneda citing this as context for JJP's commitment to original music in Sonic
Stern passed on Beetlejuice and Back to the Future licensing, which Kaneda calls 'biggest mistakes in marketing history'
high confidence · George Gomez on record statement cited by Kaneda; widely known industry fact
Sonic the Hedgehog will be the fastest pinball machine ever made with a loop-de-loop feature
low confidence · Kaneda: 'From what I heard, it's the fastest pinball machine ever...I think it's going to have a loop-de-loop'
Beetlejuice units will begin shipping in January; Beetlejuice and Harry Potter will become collection foundations as other games look 'dated and old' in comparison
medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction based on design/presentation quality assessment
Jersey Jack Sonic will have unlimited CE (Collector's Edition) variant, removing FOMO from their product line
“I just don't think people are going to want the old stuff. And I think a lot of people out there are not going to be used to the actual prices you're going to need to list things at to move them.”
Kaneda @ early segment — Core thesis on secondary market collapse for older Stern machines driving collector behavior change
“There's just so much of everything old that's out there. The new stuff is where all the excitement is going to be.”
Kaneda @ market analysis segment — Identifies oversupply as primary driver of depreciation and market reset
“I feel sorry for the people that paid $13,000 for an LE. Man, they're like $10,000 now.”
Kaneda @ Walking Dead discussion — Concrete evidence of rapid LE depreciation and market failure
“I I nope. Stern George went on the record and said nobody wanted to make Beetlejuice...Back to the Future was probably the biggest mistakes they've made in marketing history.”
Kaneda @ licensing strategy segment — Documents Stern's strategic IP licensing failures relative to Spooky's success
“It's not just enough anymore to just make a good game. Like you've people are buying into a brand.”
Kaneda @ brand strategy discussion — Core insight on community-driven brand loyalty superseding game quality alone
“Stern made the dumbest mistake ever. They put growth at any cost as the priority.”
Kaneda @ Stern criticism segment — Harsh assessment of Stern's corporate strategy under private equity ownership
“Beetlejuice and Harry Potter are going to become the foundations for every every new pinball collection because I think both those games kind of make everything else feel a little dated and old.”
Kaneda @ game comparison segment — Predicts psychological shift in collector priorities based on design/presentation quality gap
“When you see like Harry Potter next to Godzilla, like it's embarrassing.”
business_signal: Stern pursuing mass-market distribution (Costco Pokémon 3k units) that damages premium brand positioning and undercuts LE pricing strategy
medium · Kaneda: 'When you put Star Wars at Costco, I mean, it almost looks it looks similar enough to the $13,000 Star Wars game.'
sentiment_shift: Pinball purchases now driven by brand loyalty and community values as much as game quality; corporate behavior significantly impacts collector support
high · Kaneda: 'It's not just enough anymore to just make a good game. Like you've people are buying into a brand.'
competitive_signal: Spooky securing nostalgic IP (Beetlejuice, Goonies, Gremlins) that Stern/others passed on; creates differentiation and stronger brand loyalty
high · Kaneda: 'I am so shocked. I don't know how they did it...Spooky secured the licenses they have...Stern passed on Beetlejuice and Back to the Future'
design_philosophy: Back to the Future (Dutch Pinball) whitewood requires additional mechanical features; concerns raised about designer experience given only one prior game
medium · Kaneda: 'I've heard a few things from people that have played the whitewood...the what I heard was...it might need a little bit more.'
licensing_signal: Jersey Jack investing ~$500k to secure John Williams Sonic theme music, demonstrating aggressive IP acquisition strategy vs. competitors
medium · Kaneda: 'Jersey Jack...spending close to half a million dollars just to get the Harry Potter John Williams theme song into the game.'
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medium confidence · Kaneda discussing JJP's new strategy to eliminate artificial scarcity
American Pinball will never have a successful pinball machine due to poor front office judgment and bad character assessment
low confidence · Kaneda's opinion on American Pinball's organizational competence; explicit disclaimer 'I hope I eat my words'
Kaneda @ visual comparison analysis — Demonstrates aesthetic depreciation of earlier Stern releases in direct comparison
“I would never buy an American Pinball game because of the way that company has treated me personally.”
Kaneda @ brand loyalty segment — Personal brand boycott based on customer treatment, not game quality
“When you put Star Wars at Costco, I mean, it almost looks it looks similar enough to the $13,000 Star Wars game.”
Kaneda @ Stern strategy criticism — Identifies brand damage from mass-market distribution undercutting premium segment
market_signal: Walking Dead Remastered LE units depreciating from $13k to ~$10k within one week, indicating severe market rejection and oversupply
high · Kaneda: 'I feel sorry for the people that paid $13,000 for an LE. Man, they're like $10,000 now.'
personnel_signal: Christopher Franchi confirmed as Spooky Pinball artist following transition from Stern; his involvement signals Spooky's design quality elevation
high · Kaneda referencing Franchi as guest and Spooky crew member; Franchi input on rumor verification
market_signal: Secondary market collapse for older Stern Pro/Premium models predicted due to oversupply and new release excitement; Kaneda projects Pro→$3.5k, Premium→$5k
medium · Kaneda: 'I think Pros are going to $3,500. I think Premiums are going to $5,000.' and 'Stern Premiums at like $7,000. Nope.'
product_strategy: Walking Dead Remaster perceived as massive underperformance; units already devalued one week before Pokémon launch, suggesting market saturation
high · Kaneda: 'Walking Dead on arrival. It It no one's buying it. We are about a week away from Pokémon.'
sentiment_shift: Community sentiment shifting from Stern toward Spooky/Jersey Jack based on brand loyalty, community engagement, and perceived corporate values
high · Kaneda: 'I would never buy an American Pinball game...I would definitely buy a Stern game again for sure. Like I love a lot of people over at Stern.' but also 'it's hard to justify the cost of these Stern games that are looking really cheap' next to new releases
business_signal: Jersey Jack eliminating FOMO through unlimited CE variant on Sonic, representing fundamental shift away from artificial scarcity pricing
medium · Kaneda: 'Jersey Jack as a brand is about to do something...they're going to only make products that you're going to want to buy...when we see Sonic, the CE will also be unlimited.'
technology_signal: Concerns raised about AI-generated content in Hexa Pinball Three Musketeers trailer, representing quality/authenticity concerns with smaller manufacturers
medium · Kaneda: 'I saw this Hexa Pinball Three Musketeers...people are saying it's like AI-generated content and it's no thank you.'