Episode 1083: "Are You A Chump? Or Have Chump Change?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·22m 37s·analyzed·Apr 25, 2025

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.033

TL;DR

Kaneda argues LE/CE pinball buyers are chumps facing steep depreciation in an oversaturated market.

Summary

Kaneda critiques the current pinball market, arguing that Limited Edition and Collector's Edition machines at $13,000–$15,000 are poor investments given secondary market depreciation (players losing $3,000–$4,000 per machine). He questions King Kong's failure to sell out despite Keith Elwin's pedigree and suggests upcoming titles like Pokémon and music-themed games will underperform due to demographic misalignment. Kaneda exclusively claims Back to the Future will not ship in 2025 and expresses skepticism about Jersey Jack's unlimited Harry Potter CE strategy and its rumored Allentown Pinfest debut.

Key Claims

King Kong Limited Edition has not sold out and only 932 people worldwide consider it worth $13,000
medium confidence · Kaneda, opening segment discussing King Kong sales velocity
Back to the Future will not be released in 2025 and will not ship by end of year
high confidence · Kaneda, stated as exclusive information on Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, January 10, 2026
Jersey Jack Pinball is making Harry Potter CE in an unlimited run at $15,000
medium confidence · Kaneda, discussing market implications of unlimited CE strategy
Stern Pinball Limited Editions lose $3,000–$4,000 in secondary market value within 3 years
medium confidence · Kaneda, analyzing buyer financial outcomes over past three years
Pokémon will not sell well because the target demographic (kids born in late 1980s–1990s) does not overlap with high-spending pinball buyers
medium confidence · Kaneda, demographic analysis of audience overlap
Premium vs. Limited Edition differences are minimal—mainly glossy decals costing ~$50–$100 to manufacture
medium confidence · Kaneda, cost breakdown of Premium upgrades
Star Wars Skeleton Crew rumors are circulating but unlikely to be a successful theme for Stern
low confidence · Kaneda, speculation on upcoming Stern titles
Distributors initially held King Kong inventory expecting a Keith Elwin frenzy but now have units available at standard MSRP
medium confidence · Kaneda, observing distributor behavior shift
Jersey Jack's first physical unveiling of Harry Potter will likely occur at Allentown Pinfest via distributor Joe Newhart showing Chris Turner's Merlin's Arcade instead
low confidence · Kaneda, speculation on unveiling location and actual debut game

Notable Quotes

“If you buy an King Kong... you just bought a ten thousand dollar game for $13,000.”
Kaneda @ opening segment — Core thesis on LE depreciation risk
“You add it all up and it doesn't even get you 932 people around the world doing don't think the game is worth $13,000. That's it, hard stop.”
Kaneda @ mid-segment — Specific claim about King Kong sales shortfall
“I'm here to tell you right now, you are not going to see Back to the Future this year. It's not coming out this year. It will not be ready and it will not be shipped.”
Kaneda @ exclusive announcement segment — Exclusive industry intel on Back to the Future production delay
“Pokémon... is not a theme that's gonna sell a ton of games. And the reason why is simply this: the people in Pokémon are not. I'm not spending this kind of money and the people who buy pinball don't want Pokémon.”
Kaneda @ theme analysis segment — Strong prediction on Pokémon underperformance
“Stern Pinball has found a way to separate grown men from $13,000 simply by adding at most, those decals on the side of the game that are glossy.”
Kaneda @ Premium pricing critique — Critique of manufacturing cost vs. pricing strategy
“If you buy a new in-box Limited Edition or CE, historically speaking, your financial advisor would call you a chump because they would say to you, I know you want this, but I don't want this.”
Kaneda @ conclusion segment — Direct answer to episode title question
“Let the distributors load up on this stuff... Because they thought this was going to be another Keith Elwin feeding frenzy launch.”
Kaneda @ distributor behavior analysis — Explanation of market shift in distributor inventory strategy
“I'm almost at the point now where I don't even understand anymore like why there is a Limited Edition and CEs anymore. I almost feel like there should just be two tiers now: just make the Premium and the Pro.”

Entities

Kanedaperson Keith Elwinperson Retro RalphpersonStern PinballcompanyJersey Jack Pinballcompany King Konggame Harry Pottergame

Signals

$
market_signal: Stern LE machines losing $3,000–$4,000 in secondary market value; King Kong LE expected to slide to $10,000 from $13,000 MSRP
medium · Kaneda: 'If you had bought every Stern Limited Edition over the last three years, you lost something like $20,000 in value on your games.' Also: 'I don't think any King Kongs ever sell for over $13... I think they slide down to $10.'
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product_concern: Market is oversupplied with LE/CE inventory; distributors holding stock hoping for price appreciation are forced to liquidate at MSRP
medium · Kaneda: 'You are still oversupplying the world. Or you're just overcharging and people don't bite anymore like they used to.' Also: 'Because they thought this was going to be another Keith Elwin feeding frenzy launch. They were holding some back because they wanted to then sell those at an increased price.'
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product_launch: King Kong Limited Edition has not sold out; only 932 people worldwide willing to purchase at $13,000 despite major marketing push and designer pedigree
medium · Kaneda: 'You add it all up and it doesn't even get you 932 people around the world doing don't think the game is worth $13,000. That's it, hard stop.'
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product_concern: Premium vs. LE differentiation is largely superficial—glossy decals ($50–$100 cost) and cheap speakers don't justify $3,000+ price premium
medium · Kaneda: 'How much do you think those cost? 50 bucks? A hundred at most. They're just stickers.' And: 'These are the cheapest speakers imaginable... How much are they? Less than a hundred dollars at most.'
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Topics

Secondary market depreciation and financial risk of LE/CE purchasesprimaryKing Kong sales performance and market saturationprimaryBack to the Future production delays and 2025 release statusprimaryJersey Jack Pinball's unlimited Harry Potter CE strategy and market implicationsprimaryPokémon demographic mismatch and sales forecastsecondaryManufacturing costs vs. Premium tier pricing justificationsecondaryInfluencer marketing strategy and non-traditional audience recruitmentsecondaryProduct tier rationalization and potential simplification (Pro/Premium only)mentioned

Sentiment

negative(-0.75)— Kaneda expresses strong frustration with market pricing, buyer decision-making, and manufacturer strategies. Critical tone throughout regarding LE depreciation, glossy decal marketing gimmicks, and demographic mismatches for upcoming titles. Maintains humor and audience engagement but is fundamentally pessimistic about current market dynamics and future releases.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.068

Thunder Thunder Thunder Oh, it's Friday. No doubt In the middle of a radar attack Let's do this. Thunder No one around Even you, there was no turning back Hit the intro. Sitter, sitter, sitter, sitter, sitter, sitter, sitter Oh, welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast everybody. It's Friday. I got a few cups of coffee in me. I've been reading pin side. I've been talking to people on the chat. I've been hearing people saying like King Kong Ellie is not sold out. It is not sold out. What does that mean? The great Keith Elwin can't even move units now for this company. I think we're headed for a whole new period in pinball people. If Jersey Jack is going to make Harry Potter CE unlimited, think about what that means. An unlimited run of a 15,000 Win, Win I'm John Papadiuk, Black Water Podcast, Twippies Awards, and I'll see you next week. I know what some people say why just want to play pinball Canadian why don't you just support the fact that Retro Ralph is gonna buy another stern Ellie and I'm like yeah like I get it But it makes no sense if you buy King Kong Ellie Trust me you just bought a ten thousand dollar game for $13,000 now I want to ask a question if you buy an Ellie Okie dokey, so here we go. I don't quite get it, but when you say makes you a chump, or do you buy an LE? Because to you, that's chump change. Now, I think it's chump change to the people that buy these games now. Because you have to think about it. You have to be able to easily lose $3,000 to $4,000 and not even care, right? You just want to play pinball, Kaneda? I just want to have fun. You know what people have told me lately? Your show would be better if you played more pinball. Sure. So let me go spend $1,000 or more to fly to Chicago, play this game with all the other influencers. Have you noticed the influencers Stern has been inviting into its factory to play these games? They're not even pinball influencers, really. Some of them are. You know those people. But they're inviting all these gamers now. You can add up all of these influencers, and a lot of them have a much bigger audience. I mean, Retro Ralph has way more people that follow his gaming stuff, but he's now decided on pinball, right? Because pinball bites people in a new and unique way because it's so chaotic, it's so random, And it is so much more fun than covering video games. But here's the thing. You add up all of those influencers. You add up all of like the work that went into King Kong. You add up all the illustrations that Zombie Eddie did. You add up the pedigree that Keith Elwin now has in the pinball industry. You add it all up and it doesn't even get you 932 people around the world doing Don't think the game is worth $13,000. That's it, hard stop. You are still oversupplying the world. Or you're just overcharging and people don't bite anymore like they used to. Jaws would have sold out by now, but I'm just here to tell you, ladies and gentlemen, if you wait till the fall, you'll be able to get a King Kong LE for 10 grand And guess what? The code won't even be done by the fall of this year. And so also I'm here to tell you something exclusively on Kenaida's Pinball Podcast. I'm here to tell you right now, you are not going to see Back to the Future this year. You're not going to see it. It's not coming out this year. It will not be ready and it will not be shipped. It will not be played by anybody in the world in 2025. strictdoo dei sac parade guys and so great and we are at Monday the 10th of January and are watching Fast forward and not there is one minute where ours waste of time I timing twenty twenty six I have no idea like where we going to go this year It going to get crazy Right I also been reading and people think that Jersey Jack Pinball is going to unveil Harry Potter right The biggest IP since Star Wars It probably be the best translated major IP game Maybe ever Maybe ever Star Wars has never had a good pinball machine and Harry Potter I think they going to do it just So people think that Jersey Jack is actually going to unveil this game at freaking Allentown Pinfest in Allentown, Pennsylvania? Yeah, let's not go to Wizarding World down in Orlando. Let's not go to the UK where Harry Potter was created. Let's unveil this game in Allentown, Pennsylvania where there's like a sausage market across the street and it's like the most lo-fi pinball show imaginable. I'm gonna be there by the way. I have taken off next Friday. I'm gonna go there and I'm not gonna play Harry Potter. Learn English intersections for including Hond fluorescent pinball Seemsains Minneapolis to consider communicating your kids with and instead of allowing them in spring we Towards game. Which is not up until up until when we saw in February and last year that when he had series highlight video there is only 9.5 Making almost no talk aboutımı explain taste more intently to give a hundred Infrast круп and Taylor and third right that arrives no one amount in the least. I would never bring this game to Allentown PA. I wouldn't bring it to any of these like low five pinball shows. I'm sorry. You're making a $15,000 product. It is based on Harry Potter. You should surround it in a way that is more premium. And I'm sorry, but some of these shows, they're not premium. They're not inviting. I would always make sure that wherever Harry Potter showed up, when we bring it as a company, it's going to be in the right setting. Now, look, I know they don't have any control. Distributors are going to get them and they can bring them to the shows and that's going to happen and it's fine. But I mean, Jersey Jack's first physical unveiling of the game where people get to jump on it. It's not going to be Allentown Pinfest, the game that it's most likely going to be because Joe Newhart is like, I'm bringing the new games. I'm bringing the new games and everyone thinks it's Harry Potter. It's not. It's freaking Merlin's arcade. He's showing up with Chris Turner's Merlin's arcade. And did John Youssi the box it's in? It's got the pin pod and it's trademarked like the deep root pin pod. ChrisTurner, call me brother. Call me. I'm not gonna call you. You gotta call me. You need help now. Nobody's buying this game, bro. Like you're not gonna sell a hundred of these. And I saw our good friend, añozo.ormanlucia I'm seeing King Kong LE for sale on major distributor sites. So 932 people don't want this game right now. What do you think the problem was? Was it the theme? Maybe if this was back to the future, they would have sold all a thousand of them instantly. It is probably something to do with the theme. I think there's also just a little bit of fatigue at these prices. I think in general, a lot of people are just tired of getting burned. They're tired. A lot of these people went in on James Bond, on Venom, on what else? Foo Fighters. Keep going down the list. John Wick. A lot of people went in on all these games and you add it all up. I did this like a year ago. If you had bought every Stern LE over the last three years, you lost something like $20,000 in value on your games. And I think people are just fed up. We want better themes. We want Spike3. Here's what I think is gonna happen though. I do think when King Kong LE actually ships, right? It hasn't shipped yet. When people start unboxing it and that shininess is in front of these grown men with disposable income, you know you're weak. You know you're weak. You're like my friend Matt Frank. I love you, Matt Frank. You just, you get weak when John Youssi that glossy decals. Stern Pinball has found a way To separate grown men from $13,000 simply by adding at most, at most, those decals on the side of the game that are glossy. How much do you think those cost? 50 bucks? A hundred at most. They're just stickers. That's it, stickers. And I love when people are like, oh yeah, but it's got an upgraded sound system. Upgraded sound system, people. These are the cheapest speakers imaginable. Pop open that backbox people. Go look at the serial number on those damn speakers. How much are they for a product I bet those speakers are less hundred dollars at most How much did your soundbar cost for your home entertainment unit How much did it cost? How much did your TV, the media unit and the speakers, everything all in for $13,000 you can get one of the greatest home theater setups imaginable and Stern's putting in cheap speakers That are like the kinds of speakers Best Buy employees are putting into Honda Civics when you want to hear a little bit better ace of bass in your damn Honda Civic SI people. I mean seriously. When you think about the difference between a premium and an LE, it's just not there. It's just not there. And I think people are over it. If you're going to spend that much, give me a damn topper. And nowadays I saw Kerry Hardy is doing a review. Everybody's got non-reflective glass. We've now turned like non reflective glass into something special. Like everyone's giving it a different name. It's the dumbest thing ever. None of these pinball companies make glass. You can go to a glass manufacturer and just cut non reflective glass. And then you want to go call it like ghost glass, voodoo glass, PDA, Canada glass. I'm telling you, Canada glass is no glass at all. I'm taking the glass off. I'm using my finger. I'm hitting the switches and I'm setting high scores baby. Internet connected. You ain't got nothing on me. I'm gonna be at the top of the leaderboard on King Kong because I use my little index finger. They're not selling out. And if you're Seth Davis, you have to be a little bit worried here. Well, what do we got next? If Keith Elwin can't sell us a thousand games and we put this much in it, what's around the corner from John Borg? So the rumors are Star Wars Skeleton Crew is still on the The Do you think Star Wars Skeletoncrew would be a hit for Stern Pinball? It wasn't even a hit for Disney. The show didn't do well at all. So the answer is no. Do you think it's gonna be Pokemon? I'm telling you right now Pokemon if it does come out is Gonna fall flatter than people think. It is not a theme that's gonna sell a ton of games And the reason why is simply this the people in the Pokemon are not I'm not spending this kind of money and the people who buy pinball don't want Pokemon. It's just that simple and if you want to argue with me on that, fine. This is all I do for a living people. I look at audiences. I look at audience demographic and the demographic of pinball does not overlap with Pokemon. The back to the future demographic does. The diehard does. The predator audience does. The total recall audience does. It's just that simple. It's not me saying Pokemon is not the biggest IP in the world. It is. It is the biggest IP in the world. When you look at IP values and you look at the audience, it is the biggest. But more people would buy a Super Mario Brothers pinball machine than a Pokemon pinball machine. It's because you grew up with Super Mario Brothers. You did not grow up with Pokemon. Pokemon is for kids that were in the 90s. Think about it. Which means you were born in the late 80s. How many of you were born in the late 80s that are spending this kind of money on pinball machines? I just don't think there's that many out there. Now it will do well on location absolutely. But again I think Stern has got some work to do in terms of lining up more nostalgic themes that this audience wants. I'm a little worried they're going to go back to music again as well. Now we've heard the music rumors of like Journey and Motley Crue. Absolutely, like I would love a Motley Crue pinball machine, but I don't know if I want to buy at these prices. And that's the thing, right? It's like at this much money, I kind of want movies. I want TV shows. I want IP. I'm not sure I'm willing to pony up this much money for a music pin. I just feel like that's where we're at. You know, it's like a lot of money for a music pin. And you know, when you think about music pins, like you're really not paying for Footman.com I'm a fan of the Elton John game. I like the music videos. If you made a meatloaf pinball machine, you'd have to have the iconic meatloaf music videos. I mean, that's what people want. So I think it's going to be real tough to sell music pins now, considering how much they cost and what you actually get in them. Now, the other game that like is always on the rumor mill now, which I don't think people really want another run of is The Walking Dead. And I think Stern is going to make a remake of The Walking Dead. And I think Zombie Yeti is most likely going to do the artwork. Susan hey Hey It is dead now in culture and this game has been out forever and I don know when I stand over a Walking Dead Pinball Machine now it just looks really dated and look if you redo the artwork on it it still doesn matter This game is not going to sell at these modern prices It doesn matter what you put on the screen And so here we are ladies and gentlemen right here we are The other game I curious about I going to get to play it next week is Dune Pinball from Barrels of Fun I'm curious to see if they put more clips into it that say like pending license or approval But David and Brian have done a good job getting interviewed and talking about the company the philosophy I don't think anybody has a problem. I'm just wondering when these games are gonna go out and I'm still worried I think it's gonna be a really slow burn and maybe this is the future of pinball and maybe it's not a bad thing Right a game gets revealed a game gets manufactured Brayden Lawson, Mike unquote, Scott Remain Đây seedsowy, complètement unintentional negativity Psaki Republican sh element entity, sh. I'm going to be talking about the game Dunes. I just don't. It does help them out that Back to the Future is not coming out. Harry Potter has the potential to really kill sales of a game like Dune. Because remember, if you fully load your Dune machine, you are close to $13,000. So do you want to buy Dune at $13,000? Now the good news is there's only going to be a thousand of them. I'm going to be a $10,000 Harry Potter that still has all the mechs in the game, which is meant for operators. Here's my final conclusion on whether or not LEs and CEs are for chumps or do you have chump change I think looking at the current market, looking at how all these Stern LEs are losing $3,000 to $4,000 in value, looking at Jersey Jack making an unlimited run of a $15,000 CE, I do think if you buy a new in box LE or CE, historically speaking, your financial advisor would call you a chump because they would say to you, I know you want this, but I don't want this. What if I told you that you could get this for much less money? I advise All and I think a lot of people have become wise to this. Let the distributors load up on this stuff. Let them load up. Like how? All of a sudden now are some distributors who said they were sold out of King Kong LE, many distributors who said they were sold out now have units available. Why do you think that is? Because they thought this was going to be another Elwin feeding frenzy launch. They were holding some back because they wanted to then sell those at an increased price. They did. But I don't think any King Kongs ever sell for over $13. In fact, I think they slide down to $10. It's just a lot. It's just too many, right? They should have made only 500 King Kong LEs. and the pro especially because there's no top or it's just not there i'm almost at the point now gang where I don't even understand anymore like why there is a lease and sees anymore I i almost feel like there should just be two tears now just make the premium and the pro i mean it i mean it because in the end everything only is just sinking the hardest so here's the thing everybody let me know I'm planning on going Friday morning, driving up and let's hang out. Let's have some fun. Let's play these new games. I think King Kong should be there. I see the Ellie's are on the line. So hopefully one will be there. And let me know, let me know. Like, are you offended if we start calling Ellie buyers chumps or are you someone who just looks at these machines as chump change? Which one is it everybody? Which one is it? But come on, we're all just taking the piss out of this. When you walk down the street, And you ask anybody, what a pinball machine costs. You're not even getting within $10,000. You know, if you show them a picture of King Kong Ali, how much you think this is? They will probably be $10,000 off. Happy Friday, Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. Let's go get some like old-fashions right now for lunch, Brenda, and just like do it up, right? Do it Ro Aiden style. Everybody, peace out. I instructed Andy Sase to make the final shots. 005ai WA Grch That's fresh. 006 W konuş 10 06ister Mhm Yes Yeah 07 Yep That's right Any protein fits ihre Japanese