The Pinball Show Ep 50: Entering A New Pinball Era

TL;DR

Pinball market enters new era: supply constraints, 6-8 month delays, manufacturer price increases, secondary market inflation

Summary

Key Claims

• Dealers are now ordering pinball machines 6-8 months in advance due to sold-out inventory months

  high confidence · Zach Manny, as a dealer, describing current ordering practices: 'dealers are ordering. We're ordering sometimes six to eight months in advance because all the prior months are going to be sold out.'

• Stern Pinball increased prices by $500 for Batman 66 and Elvira Premium, plus $100 across all titles

  high confidence · Zach discussing official pricing: 'We had a couple of titles seeing price increases here as of late at $500 for Stern Pinball in Batman 66 in Elvira Premium. Not to mention a $100 price increase at the beginning of the year for all titles.'

• Jersey Jack Pinball raised prices over 10% mid-run on Guns N' Roses and increased all prices $1,000 at month start

  high confidence · Ken Rudberg's JJP update: 'mid-run on Guns N' Roses' and '$1,000 price increase at the beginning of the month'

• Roger Sharp claims location pinball is the future and homeowners (85-90%) cannot sustain industry long-term

  high confidence · Zach: 'He said, quote, commercial locations are the future for the industry... 85% to 90% of homeowners are the lifeblood of the industry right now. He said, but that's not going to work.'

• Munsters failed as a game due to shallow code depth, not theme or lack of location presence

  medium confidence · Zach: 'I think there's nothing else, really... the one correlation I see... is a direct comparison with that lack of code depth. So that's what did it.'

• Three Jersey Jack machines occupy top 5 Pinside rankings (Pirates #5, G&R #3, Willy Wonka #1)

  high confidence · Ken Rudberg's update: 'There are not one, not two, but three Jersey Jack machines sitting in the top five spots'

• JJP Pirates of the Caribbean secondary market prices reach $18k-$22.5k with several pending sales

  high confidence · Ken Rudberg: 'prices seem to be a bit off the rails at $18,000, $20,000, $22,500, and several of these marked as pending'

Notable Quotes

• “We have a Deep Root opening, people. That's right. Chris has to be replaced. He was my favorite.”

  Zach Manny @ ~10:00 — Announcing departure of Deep Root correspondent segment host; shows turnover in podcast infrastructure

• “It's coarse. [Laughs] When's the last time you've been to the beach? I don't remember. I suppose something like 30 years ago.”

  Dennis Nordman @ ~03:00 — Personal anecdote showing Dennis's avoidance of beach/sand vacations; sets conversational tone

• “Stern Puzzles have jumped to 99 in the top 100 best pinball-themed swag list on Pinside, just ahead of Dog Whistles and just behind Lip Bomb.”

  Craig Bobby (Correspondent) @ ~20:00 — Satirical commentary on Stern's recent puzzle merchandise reveal, using comedic ranking system

• “I think that that's going to continue to a big degree. And that's tough. It drives people wanting these things.”

  Zach Manny @ ~45:00 — Acknowledges tension between dealer challenges and consumer FOMO fueling demand

• “Roger, if you're saying 85% to 90% of homeowners are the lifeblood right now, then that's who you're selling to for the moment... the one correlation I see... is a direct comparison with that lack of code depth.”

  Zach Manny @ ~55:00 — Direct rebuttal to Roger Sharp's location pinball argument; centers on game code as failure factor

• “I don't know if I'm going to buy new machines anymore. I haven't decided yet.”

  Zach Manny @ ~75:00 — Signals concern about pricing sustainability even among industry dealers/collectors

• “Logic goes right out that window. When we have collectability in things like watches or pinball machines, I'm seeing this zeitgeist, if you will.”

  Zach Manny @ ~35:00 — Identifies pandemic-driven collectibility bubble across multiple hobby categories

• “The way I think – it depends on what element we're talking about. So like on the used pen prices... Those people that aren't really in the hobby as collectors but just did that because of isolation... I think they will sell.”

Entities

Signals

• ?

  business_signal: Flippin' Out Pinball expansion facing severe cost inflation; lumber pricing 3-4x pre-pandemic estimates; retail/operator segment struggling with capex

  high · Zach announcement: 'we're going to be building a brand-new complex for Flippin' Out Pinball... pricing is three times the estimate we would have received prior to the pandemic. So yes, three to four times that lumber cost.'

• ?

  business_signal: Stern Pinball shifting to pre-order/allocation model instead of building inventory; manufacturer controls demand through artificial scarcity

  high · Zach: 'gone are the days that Stern Pinball... will inventory a lot of games... Now dealers are ordering sometimes six to eight months in advance... we know what our allotment is on a Deadpool Pro that's running in... March.'

• ?

  community_signal: Roger Sharp's statement that location pinball is industry future contradicted by current landscape showing homeowners as 85-90% lifeblood; hosts reject his framing

  high · Zach directly rejects Sharp's position: 'No, I do not [agree]' and 'Roger, looks like it's working to me.' Argues Sharp's logic would apply to Munsters failure but game failed due to code, not location availability.

• ?

  design_philosophy: Munsters game criticized for shallow code depth and repetitive action button mechanics; competitive and casual players disengaged despite theme/license

  medium · Zach poll of location players: majority chose Munsters as least favorite of 12 games. Criticism: 'constantly having to hit the action button... it's flashing blue at me constantly it's obnoxious' and 'rules didn't do anything for anyone'

• $