Episode 1120: "Why Pokemon Will Be a Huge Hit"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·21m 6s·analyzed·Aug 6, 2025

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.030

TL;DR

Pokémon will drive Stern sales via massive IP appeal, but Stern's distributor-focused strategy alienates collectors.

Summary

Kaneda argues that Pokémon will be a massive commercial success for Stern Pinball, citing the franchise's status as the world's highest-grossing media property (100+ billion revenue, 480 million video game units sold) and multigenerational appeal. He predicts day-one sellouts and secondary market premiums similar to Rick and Morty, positioning Pokémon alongside Star Wars as transformative IP in a competitive three-year window dominated by Stern, Jersey Jack, and Spooky Pinball. Kaneda critiques Stern's business model, which prioritizes distributor relationships over collectors, and forecasts consolidation with smaller manufacturers struggling against mega-IP dominance.

Key Claims

Pokémon is the highest-grossing media franchise of all time with total revenues exceeding 100 billion
high confidence · Kaneda citing franchise statistics in favor of Pokémon's market potential
Pokémon has sold 480 million video games in total units
high confidence · Kaneda providing contrast between Pokémon's scale and pinball's Limited Edition production of 1,000 units
Pokémon and Star Wars represent two of the biggest IPs arriving within a four-month window
high confidence · Kaneda describing Stern's strategic pipeline and its competitive significance
The next three years of pinball will be the best pinball we've ever had due to IP competition and quality demands
medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction based on manufacturer competition and collector expectations
Rick and Morty sold out instantly despite not having great gameplay due to light show and IP appeal
medium confidence · Kaneda recounting historical precedent for IP-driven pinball success
Pokémon Limited Edition will not be obtainable anywhere near $13,000 on the secondary market
medium confidence · Kaneda predicting premium pricing based on IP power, similar to Star Wars projection
Gary Stern views distributors as customers, not end consumers, driving the $20,000 James Bond pricing strategy
medium confidence · Kaneda criticizing Stern's business model and its impact on collector market
The pinball market will consolidate into a three-horse race between Spooky Pinball, Stern, and Jersey Jack Pinball
medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction about smaller manufacturers' inability to compete against mega-IP licensing

Notable Quotes

“These guys have sold 480 million video games in total. Imagine when Stern Pinball went to them and they're like, well how many pinball machines do you think we might sell? Well, a thousand Limited Edition is what we're thinking. It just goes to show you how small our pinball community is.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Illustrates the scale disparity between Pokémon franchise and pinball market, contextualizing production realities
“Mark my words, much like Star Wars, will be a day one sellout. Not only that, you won't be able to touch the Limited Edition for anywhere near $13,000.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Explicit prediction of Pokémon secondary market premium pricing comparable to Star Wars
“Gary Stern could care less about us. He only cares about who buys his product directly, which are the dealers and the distros.”
Kaneda @ late-episode — Critical commentary on Stern's business priorities and perceived abandonment of collector base
“It's a three horse race between Spooky Pinball, Stern, and Jersey Jack Pinball. It is the game of the moment.”
Kaneda @ late-episode — Industry consolidation prediction with explicit exclusion of mid-tier manufacturers
“They don't care about collectors anymore. Stern has made it quite clear.”
Kaneda @ late-episode — Sweeping claim about Stern's strategic pivot away from collector market
“If you don't drop a game into the world that has what the fans of that IP want, you're dead in the water.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Articulation of IP execution risk and threshold for market success
“It's a neopinball market now. Just buy what you love, play games before you buy it, but nothing you buy is really going to hold much value anymore.”
Kaneda @ late-episode — Market transition thesis away from collector/investment mindset toward gameplay-first consumption
“If you nail a strong IP and you make it limited, it will remain collectible. Same with Pokemon. Fallout not so much.”

Entities

PokémongameStar Warsgame Gary SternpersonStern PinballcompanyJersey Jack PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyKanedaperson Rick and Mortygame

Signals

?
product_strategy: Kaneda identifies Pokémon and Star Wars as consecutive mega-IP releases representing Stern's strategic pivot toward franchise-driven sales, with both releases within four-month window
high · If they nail Star Wars and then the next game after Star Wars is Pokemon, that is two of the biggest IPs ever in a four month window.
?
collector_signal: Kaneda predicts Pokémon LE will command significant secondary market premiums, citing IP power precedent (Rick and Morty) and Star Wars comparison
medium · You won't be able to touch the Limited Edition for anywhere near $13,000. It's just the power of IP.
?
industry_signal: Kaneda predicts consolidation into three-player dominance (Stern, Jersey Jack, Spooky) with smaller manufacturers (American Pinball, Barrels of Fun, Multimorphic, Turner, Chicago Gaming) unable to compete on mega-IP licensing
medium · It's a three horse race between Spooky Pinball, Stern, and Jersey Jack Pinball...For everybody else, it's going to get really tough.
?
business_signal: Kaneda critiques Stern's strategic shift toward distributor profitability over collector/consumer value, citing $20,000 James Bond pricing and perceived abandonment of end-user market
medium · Gary Stern could care less about us. He only cares about who buys his product directly, which are the dealers and the distros...They don't care about collectors anymore.
?
product_strategy: Kaneda identifies remaster games (Walking Dead, AC/DC re-release) as high-margin Stern strategy requiring no new R&D but providing significant profit optimization

Topics

IP licensing strategy and mega-franchise dominanceprimarySecondary market pricing and collector value retentionprimaryIndustry consolidation and manufacturer competitive positioningprimaryStern Pinball's business model and distributor-vs-collector prioritiesprimaryPokémon as cultural phenomenon and franchise scaleprimaryGame design execution and IP fan satisfactionsecondary2026 pinball release pipeline and schedulingsecondaryRemaster strategy and profit marginssecondary

Sentiment

mixed(0.45)— Kaneda is optimistic about Pokémon's market potential and quality of upcoming releases but heavily critical of Stern's business practices, distributor favoritism, and disregard for collectors. Frustration with industry consolidation and smaller manufacturers' prospects tempers enthusiasm.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.063

Pokemon! Gotta catchemall! Our hearts so true! Our courage will wander through! You teach me and I'll teach you! Pokemon! Gotta catchemall! Gotta catchemall! Sit-a, sit-a, sit-a, sit-a, sit-a, sit-a, sit-a! Alright! Well that's not exactly the Star Wars theme song that's gonna get most of you pinheads going But the Pokemon debate rages on. On this episode of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, let's ask ourselves, do we think the world's biggest IP, Pokemon, will be successful in the world of pinball? Now, before we get into this, because it's an interesting topic, nobody knows yet. Nobody knows. There hasn't been a Pokemon machine yet. The Week in Pinball, Johnny Pneumonic, Black Water, Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, Twippies Awards, transliteelectronic Game of Thrones unint The most valuable thing that usually translates into sales is a really enthusiastic and engaged community and it spanned like 20 something plus years of Pokemon fanatics. I feel like Pokemon's been around for almost 30 years. So let's look at some statistics because I think in the world of pinball, you get a lot of like people screaming at the clouds. I think we're going to be like, yeah, that's a great theme for pinball. Beetlejuice, Goonies, Karate Kid, Top Gun, Total Recall, Running Man, POKEMON, Fifth element, matrix, like these are things the eighties and the nineties really hit us in a great way. Now what's interesting about Pokemon is it came out in 1996. That's when I was a freshman in college. That's when Tupac Shakur and Biggie Smalls I think both passed away. 1996. You know and when 96 rolled around we were listening to like POC we weren't into Pokemon and so we didn't grow up with Pokemon in those formidable years in which we geeked out over stuff like this. It was like a new generation's Transformers, a new generation's G.I. Joe. But there's no denying the fact that Pokemon is incredibly popular and has had a huge POKEMON IS THE HIGHEST GROSSING MEDIA FRANCHISE OF ALL TIME WITH TOTAL REVENUES EXCEEDING $100 BILLION ACROSS GAMES, TRADING CARDS, MERCHANDISE, ANIME, AND MOVIES. THIS SURPASSES EVEN DISNEY'S MICKEYMOUSE FRANCHISE AND OTHER ENTERTAINMENT GIANTS. The global gaming phenomenon around Pokemon, the original Pokemon Red and Blue games sold over 31 million copies worldwide, making them among the best selling video games ever. The franchise has sold over 480 million video games in total. That's not the revenue, that's the number of units. So just think about that for a minute. 480 million video games. Imagine when Stern Pinball went to them and they're like, well how many pinball machines do you think we might sell? Well, a thousand LEs is what we're thinking. A thousand? These guys have sold 480 million video games in total. It just goes to show you how small our pinball community is. I'm Richard Organisation and thank you for participating in my video. Just like 5p guest modulation, I'm your Terryoutpton. Friday night in SpAUDI nozzle. I have our featured lead character Kevin Ree WPPR. My name's Adam and we're happy to join you for a figure skating parody podcast where we do regular 4p as in actually sporadically fly disc hard screams, 1p as inτανine cathedral The $1 at auction The cultural bridge Pokemon became one of the first major Japanese cultural exports to achieve massive success in Western markets helping pave the way for anime and mangas mainstream acceptance globally mobile gaming revolution Pokemon Go became a cultural phenomenon in 2016 downloaded over 1 billion times and generating more than 6 billion in revenue It demonstrated the massive potential of augmented reality gaming and got millions of people walking outdoors Multigenerational appeal This is important for us The Franchise has successfully maintained relevance across multiple generations with parents who grew up with Pokemon now sharing it with their children creating a unique multi-generational fanbase academic recognition universities have offered courses analyzing Pokemon's cultural impact and the Franchise has been studied in fields ranging from sociology to game design theory the brand's ability to evolve while maintaining its core appeal and has made it one of the most enduring entertainment properties in modern history. Now, after hearing all of that, do you think they'll be able to sell Pokemon pinball machines? Two things that have been very culturally relevant for decades coming together with most likely two of the best designers in pinball Doesn't it WPPR end up together the future teardown leader bible I This Pokemon is fun and the theme of Pokemon is perfect for pinball and if you get one of the best pinball designers or two of the best designers collaborating on a game that shootss really well, is very colorful, stands out in a lineup and has all these fun things to achieve and all these monsters to get and all this magic in a pinball experience, you're gonna tell me you'd rather play John Wick or Venom or games like D&D. This property opens the door for I think what is going to be one of the most fun pinball experiences and now it's starting to look like stern pinball might not be in so much trouble. If they nail Star Wars and then the next game after Star Wars is Pokemon, that is two of the biggest IPs ever in a four month window. Most of you are going to wait more than four Tantrum and a half ago and that's the crazy thing about the hobby these days is sometimes it's easy to sort of feel like we're in a lull nothing's happening nothing's new and stern pinball is not sitting idly in that huge factory they are planning some humongous juggernaut IP games and here's where it's gonna get The game is not exciting and this is why I've said it and I'll say it again. I think the next three years of pinball will be the best pinball we've ever had. These companies know the competition is higher than it's ever been. They know the prices are making us demand the games better be great and they better have everything in it or we're not going to buy. Because if you don't drop a game into the world that has what the fans of that T 이번 ed contactlamation Bread at 2 noon at the première Kansas Canticle Studio At 30th entry SimonM anterior, Richard Schov Oct favored late at work in that genre haga by Wayne Predator as a vuelvo ipofcomp There is a huge portion of this hobby that will put great pinball over theme. They will warm up to the theme. I was here. See the newbies don't know this. The newbie content creators were not in the hobby when stuff like this went down. I was here when Rick and Morty came out and most people in the pinball buying demo were not into Rick and Morty and questioned whether or not people would want it. And even though that gameplay wasn't great, we just loved Scott Denisi so much and the light show was amazing, it sold out instantly. So Pokemon, mark my words, much like Star Wars, will be a day one LE sellout. Not only that, you won't be able to touch the LEs for anywhere near $13,000. It just the power of IP If Harry Potter only made a thousand CEs trust me it would have been more fun We would have been trying harder to get one It would have been fun to see how much people would pay It kind of boring that they made it unlimited I get why they did it but as a collector and as someone who speculates on pinball market and pinball market prices it boring when you just say we going to make as Fire as mist, , WAI comic, The Movie's The WalkingPremiumortunately, TheWalkingDeadRemastered, Beetlejuice from Spooky Pinball, and Pokemon from Stern. I do not think we see Steve Ritchie's pin anytime soon in early 2026. I don't think we're going to see Steve Ritchie's pin until the end of next year. I don't think we're going to see Back to the Future until October Back to the Future Day of 2026. I think Dutch Pinball's got a long way to go, which is why I think after they make around like 350 Alice's or 400, I don't think they make all 500. I think Melvin's going to throw Raza on the line and make about 300 of them, and that's going to bridge the gap between Alice and Back to the Future. Im notanskaupackenje and t keyword n banquet. Lars was racinggood.agent.at, driftipsn ebenogertja badsk不會 Ren Clubber responden tro hoppingapk N Societyedereenomme viscos Kathryn story,andi vardhong pavementinstantiti que te pego, X sporniy and now you can approach The WalkingPremiumbrance.com remastered a little bit differently. It doesn't need to be this ginormous hit. It's probably not even meant to be that. It's probably meant to just get some more money because think about this when Stern revolts or remasters a game that doesn't need any design R&D think about how much more profit and How incredible the margins are on a game that's already been designed. It's already been coded. Yeah, they might have to port over Lyman's masterpiece code onto a screen, but that's a lot easier to do. He's already written the novel. You just have to reprint it on a new medium. And so the margin play on these remastered games is phenomenal. and that would make more money on remasters than they do on a Star Wars and Pokemon. So, that's part of Stern's strategy. The other thing they're going to do is clobber us with overpriced accessories and you add it all up and that's Stern's modern approach. They don't really care that they're not re-releasing Tron when the new Tron movie comes out. The other thing that's crazy about Stern is look how many hit games they have. Look how many huge IPs they have. They can, they will, and they've shown us they will go back to the well and re-release something when they need to just fill in the gap. And that's why I think we're going to get ACDC again and for the two to three thousand they might sell to the newbies. You gotta remember a game like ACDC's been out for a long time. Out for 10 years plus so there are a lot of new to pinball buyers that were not around back then that don't want to buy used and if they modernize it they'll go in on the game because it's still a great game it's just refreshed and looks better than it ever did before and we know that this is the balancing act over at Stern they know that's going to burn the original buyers France France they know that skin had a increase the value those old collectors they don care about collectors anymore start has made it quite clear that all of you people back affected sterns hinE Fin persecution Centre cages Hiob Romania Syttesmasadans Lokiducay iKsgwopctygalvka Koliwou I 작 longerimond heeft bedقتjas' Conrad employment, and Aunnd I No, they asked for $20,000 on a game that looked like a $5,000 game. They don't care about collectors. The marketing department has always been focused on league night players and operators and Gary sees the distros as the customers and that's why they want to sell a $20,000 James Bond 60th because they're going to sell that to the distro for 12 and they feel like, yeah, we're going to hand and our loyal distros in $8000 profit while we screw over the real customer, which is you and me. They're going to screw over the end user, and that's been Stern's biggest marketing mistake over the last 10 years. Gary could care less about us. He only cares about who buys his product directly, which are the dealers and the distros. It's an outdated business model. Everybody knows it. We The number one reason why Stern has destroyed its own collector base. And so now here we are, you know, no one's collecting Harry Potter's. It's a new pinball market now. Just buy what you love, play games before you buy it, but nothing you buy is really going to hold much value anymore. Now, I'm going to play devil's advocate a little bit. If they make a thousand Star Wars LEs and it's four, five, and six, and it's finally an amazing A Star WarsGame, it's absolutely gonna be sought after, it's absolutely gonna become a collectible and it's gonna do what it does. That's what a strong IP does. If by nature, if you nail a strong IP and you make it limited, it will remain collectible. Same with Pokemon. Fallout not so much. Fallout, I hear people saying, oh yeah, Fallout's gonna be the next big thing. Fallout will do alright. It's not at the same level. It's just not. And so what's really gonna get tough for the companies like barrels for the companies like Multimorphic for the companies like Turner pinball for the companies I don't know not really Dutch because they have the biggest theme everybody wants for companies like American pinball If they're even still around for everybody else companies like CGC. I mean CGC is making all their money from Churchill cabinets They don't care about you at all All of you talk about a company that doesn't care about its consumers, Chicago Gamingpingcompany craps all over its consumers every single year. Here we are, August 6th, nobody knows where their Medieval Madness Merlin remakes are. For everybody else, it's going to get really tough. It's going to become, and I've been saying it for a while, it's a three horse race between Spooky, Stern, and JJP. Sp kitten estas seeing fo ry sak ni ko ko me yafrou nae? Andy prologue to Fontane thou sebeno orchilik, Pierrotte and Annbridge Were Connor just press 2 certo Nice funny It is the game of tile Atomicramatic So, I'm absolutely open minded about it. It's not a dream theme, but it's not a theme I hate. You know, it doesn't turn me off like a venom or a D&D. Everybody will chat soon. Let me know how you feel about Pokemon. Kanadapinball at gmail.com. Peace out. ISRA circulating video