Episode 867: "Why I Wouldn't Buy Jaws LE"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·27m 5s·analyzed·Oct 28, 2023

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.030

TL;DR

Kaneda warns against Jaws LE, alleges Stern plans 2025 anniversary edition, criticizes pricing.

Summary

Kaneda argues that Stern Pinball's pricing strategy has become unsustainable and warns against buying Jaws LE, claiming insider knowledge that a Jaws 50th anniversary edition is planned for 2025. He criticizes Stern's pattern of releasing premium variants of existing games, contends this destroys collector value, and speculates about Jersey Jack Pinball's upcoming AAA licenses including The Matrix. He suggests the pinball market faces a reckoning due to unsustainable pricing and insufficient AAA themes.

Key Claims

Stern Pinball has already approved a 50th anniversary Jaws edition arriving in 2025, which will be a superior version to the current LE
medium confidence · Kaneda cites 'a very good source' but provides no verifiable attribution; frames as exclusive insider information
Jersey Jack Pinball has secured the license for The Matrix and is developing a Matrix pinball machine
medium confidence · Kaneda states 'I'm here to tell you that Jersey Jack Pinball 100% has the license for the Matrix' but does not cite a source
Elton John sales are abysmal and the game will be a sales failure for Jersey Jack
medium confidence · Kaneda reports hearing 'from everybody' but provides no named sources or sales data
Stern's three-tiered pricing model (Pro/Premium/LE) is foundational to the pinball market, and abandoning it through repeated variant releases will collapse the entire industry
high confidence · Kaneda states this as his central thesis, though it is a market opinion, not a fact
Pinball prices have reached a point where machines cost $10,000–$15,000 and accessories like toppers cost $2,000
high confidence · Kaneda references specific prices throughout the episode; consistent with known market pricing
Stern Pinball CEO Seth Davis is prioritizing short-term revenue extraction at the expense of long-term market health
low confidence · Kaneda speculates about Seth Davis's motives based on observed behavior; no direct attribution
Distributors are offering $2,000 discounts on new games because they cannot make profit at standard pricing and need to free up capital and space
medium confidence · Kaneda claims to observe this pattern but does not cite specific distributor statements
Top Gun license for Jersey Jack will not feature Tom Cruise
low confidence · Kaneda mentions 'potentially have a Top Gun license that will not feature Tom Cruise' with qualifying language

Notable Quotes

“The pinball pricing is out of this world. It's now at a point now where the games themselves have so much pressure to live up to the cost of these machines and they're not gonna deliver and that's the thing is most of these games cannot deliver the value they cannot deliver the value and the experience for ten to fifteen thousand dollars”
Kaneda @ ~5:00–6:30 — Core argument about pricing vs. game quality value delivery
“If you destroy the collector aspect of pinball you will destroy it all because it's not one version per game. And this industry has been built on a three-tiered model for like a decade now.”
Kaneda @ ~9:30 — Central claim about the structural dependence of the market on limited editions
“If I were you, I would not buy a Jaws LE because they are going to make a nicer version of the game.”
Kaneda @ ~12:00 — Direct purchasing recommendation based on 50th anniversary prediction
“If you're a new in box buyer, you're a sucker now. I really mean it. You're a sucker now.”
Kaneda @ ~14:30 — Strong opinion on current purchasing strategy; criticism of FOMO-driven buying
“I'm here to tell you that Jersey Jack Pinball 100% has the license for the Matrix.”
Kaneda @ ~16:00 — Alleged inside knowledge about JJP upcoming license; unverified claim
“The moment they say they're not making anymore, everybody will want this pin. The moment everyone can have it, nobody wants it. That's the story of Elton John.”
Kaneda @ ~18:30 — Commentary on scarcity psychology and JJP's sales predicament
“Now at these prices they need every single game to be a triple A theme or you're not buying. But the problem is the distributors have to buy every single game and they have to buy a lot of each game or else they're not going to get those triple A game allotments”
Kaneda @ ~21:00 — Industry analysis of distributor purchasing leverage and AAA theme dependency

Entities

KanedapersonStern PinballcompanyJersey Jack Pinballcompany Jawsgame Jaws 50thgame Seth Davisperson

Signals

?
product_strategy: Kaneda alleges Stern Pinball is pursuing a strategy of releasing multiple premium variants of the same game (Jaws, Metallica, Elvira, Jurassic Park) to maximize revenue, with planned 2025 Jaws 50th Anniversary LE as evidence
medium · They're going to do the same thing they did with Jurassic Park, with Elvira, and they're going to do it again with Jaws... Stern Pinball has already approved a 50th anniversary of Jaws pinball, which will be arriving in 2025.
$
market_signal: Kaneda warns that repeated premium variants destroy collector confidence in limited editions and threatens the entire three-tiered pricing model that underpins the pinball market
high · If you destroy the collector aspect of pinball you will destroy it all... It will absolutely collapse the entire pinball market.
$
market_signal: Kaneda observes distributors offering $2,000 discounts on new games because margins are compressed and inventory must be liquidated to fund new purchases
medium · distributors put up holiday sales where they're taking $2,000 off the price of a game... these distributors are not making money on these sales. They just need to get their money back.
?
product_concern: Kaneda expresses doubt that upcoming Stern games (specifically Jaws) will justify their $10,000–$15,000 price point through artwork, layout, or movie assets
high · I don't think Jaws is going to nail it. I really don't. I don't think it's going to have any assets from the movie. I don't think it's going to nail it in the artwork department.
?
licensing_signal: Kaneda alleges Jersey Jack Pinball has secured licenses for AAA themes including The Matrix (confirmed), Harry Potter (mentioned), and potentially Top Gun (without Tom Cruise)

Topics

Pricing sustainability and market collapse riskprimaryLimited edition collector value and variants strategyprimaryJaws machine release timing and variantsprimaryJersey Jack Pinball licensing and upcoming titlesprimaryConsumer purchasing strategy and FOMO dynamicssecondaryDistributor economics and discounting pressuresecondaryAAA theme availability and game quality expectationssecondaryElton John sales performance and JJP market positionsecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.75)— Kaneda expresses deep frustration with industry pricing, manufacturer strategy (especially Stern), and market dynamics. Tone is critical, cautionary, and somewhat defiant. He frames the situation as unsustainable and warns the community against current purchasing practices. Some respect for Barrels of Fun and Labyrinth, but overall sentiment is pessimistic about the direction of pinball.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.081

Welcome everybody to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, the only pinball podcast at the end of this This episode, I'm going to let you guys hear a nine minute version of a new Guns N' Roses song the world has never heard. It's called the General and Monsters. Now I'm going to tell you right now, it's not that good. And there's a reason why Axl Rose did not release this material like 20 years ago. And if you think pinball fans are suffering through high prices, you should join the Guns N' Roses message boards. These people have been tortured all of these years waiting for these songs and there's a reason why these songs never made it to the world. And I'm just going to say this. I was once friends with Bumblefoot, the lead guitarist of Guns N' Roses, and when I did my Dr. Pepper program where we offered everybody in America a free soda if Axl Rose would come out with Chinese Democracy and we made it happen, I once had a conversation with Bumblefoot. What does all the unreleased Guns N' Roses material sound like? And he said, Chris, it's just as unrelatable as everything that's on Chinese democracy. It was the most honest response I've ever heard from somebody. So you're going to hear a nine minute song that is just pretty terrible at the end of this podcast. But don't ever say Kaneda's Pinball Podcast didn't give you stuff for your five bucks a month. And speaking of five dollars a month, let's give a quick shout out to our new club members. We got Shane, we've got Bob K, we've got Paul M, we've got Sandeep M, we've got Andrew Martin, we've got Adam M, Robert H, and B. B, just B, just letter B. I love it when people join this podcast and they just don't even give their full name. I want to give an extra special shout out to Sandeep because your friend said to me, give him an extra special shout out for joining the show. So welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. I'm not going to lie. I was at lunch today with Brenda. Last night we went to see Ricky Martin, Enrique Iglesias and Pitbull at Madison Square Garden and it was absolutely incredible. I mean this is what life is about people. If you don't think for a moment when you see a $2000 Stern topper that is flat plastic and then you had a night like we had last night and it's everything and it probably costs near $2000. I'm going to tell you right now, you should fill your life with moments that you will never forget with the people you love. And these pinball machines have become so expensive and they become so ridiculously expensive that each machine in itself now and each accessory like a $2,000 topper, a $15,000 machine, it's not just a pinball machine anymore. It's a decision. It's a decision now. Do you want to have another pinball machine that you don't really need or could you do something with that money that would absolutely change your life? That would give you a moment that you would never forget. And that's where I'm at with all of this right now. And I've been saying this, I said it earlier on my Facebook live. The pinball pricing is out of this world. It's now at a point now where the games themselves have so much pressure to live up to the cost of these machines and they're not gonna deliver and that's the thing is most of these games cannot deliver the value they cannot deliver the value and the experience for ten to fifteen thousand dollars like that is a trip to japan that will change your life if you've never been to japan and you're gonna buy a fifteen thousand dollar pinball machine you should not you should book a trip to japan spend three weeks over there go to kyoto and go Go to Tokyo and absolutely change your life. Or you could buy another pinball machine in which you already have a row of them and what's going to change in your life? Absolutely nothing. Absolutely nothing. All right, so on this episode of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, what do I want to talk about? I'm going to talk about Jaws because I heard another thing that is really now concerning me, because I think Stern Pinball is about to do something that is absolutely moronic. And I think Stern Pinball is right now in a weird place. Like I think Seth Davis over there, I think he wants to really generate as much revenue as he can in a short term period of time. And I think he might take this company in a horrible direction. And what I mean by that is I think he's going to start to burn everybody that believes in the company. And by believing in Stern Pinball, there has to be a simple principle of belief that if If you say to me, this is the limited version of this game, I believe you that you're not going to make any more of this game. And this is a sacred thing between company and consumer. And if they burn this and they absolutely blow up what it means to be a limited edition of a game, and they keep making more versions of everything just to make more money and just to give the newbies in the hobby a chance to get stuff that they missed out on, if they They continue to do this. It will absolutely collapse the entire pinball market. It'll absolutely collapse it because what's going to happen if this occurs time and time again is that people simply won't buy anything new in box anymore and they absolutely will not buy any of these LE machines of these games. And then what are you left with? You think you're going to get tons of people to buy $10,000 premiums that are going to Stern Pinball is a game that is absolutely going to destroy the value of their game.امث __N segurheid perqu powerci continuer His dome This is going to be the one collectors want And I don understand why people don understand this principle Why would you root for Stern to make more versions of Elvira Why do you want them to make another version of Metallica Why do you want it Why do you want to destroy the very thing that makes the pinball market healthy If you destroy the collector aspect of pinball you will destroy it all because it not one version per game And this industry has been All of these are going to be built on a three-tiered model for like a decade now. And if you destroy that and you take it away, it's all going to collapse. It's going to be a house of cards that comes down in 2024. All right, so here's what I'm hearing is going to happen, people. And I alluded to this on my Facebook post. I said something is going to happen when Jaws comes out that is not going to make buying an LE a smart move. So here's what I've been told is going to happen with Jaws Pinball. JAWS pinball is going to come out in 2023, early 2024. And I'm hearing from a very good source that Stern Pinball has already approved a 50th anniversary of JAWS pinball, which will be arriving in 2025. And that is going to be the SLE version of the game. So if you buy an LE of Jaws this year, you are going to regret it because there is going to be a nicer version of Jaws that comes out in 2025 as a 50th anniversary version of the game. They're going to do the same thing they did with Jurassic Park, with Elvira, and they're going to do it again with Jaws. They're probably going to do it again with Godzilla as well. And this is Stern's and they're going to do it with Metallica. And this is Stern's new approach. So you're hearing it here first on Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. If I were you, I would not buy a Jaws LE because they are going to make a nicer version of the game. If you want to play the game with all of its features, here's what I would do if I were you. I think each and every one of us should send all of these companies a message. I wouldn't buy anything new in box. I would wait and buy a Jaws premium used. If you want to collect this machine, if you love it and you want to keep it in your stable, www.sternpinball.com This is the final top tier version of the game. That is a very fair question to ask. If you're going to spend $13,000 on a game, shouldn't we know, are you ever going to make this game again? Are you ever going to make another special edition of this game again? And I would not give, and I would not give a single dime to this company until they tell us yes or no. And the entire pinball marketplace is now being defined by this kind of stuff. It's like they're just going to keep making stuff over and over and over again. They're going to milk the pinball marketplace. And if you're a new in box buyer, you're a sucker now. I really mean it. You're a sucker now. Tell me a single game where you had to buy it new in box or else you would miss out. I think the last game is Godzilla, but nothing since. Absolutely nothing since. And trust me, with a thousand Godzillas out there, you're going to start to see Godzillas be much more affordable as time goes on. You know what else I'm hearing in pinball? I'm hearing that Jersey Jack Pinball has some triple A themes in the hopper. You know, Jack's been talking to people. Elton John is not one of their biggest themes. I'm here to tell you that Jersey Jack Pinball 100% has the license for the Matrix. The Matrix from JJP is coming. We know they have Harry Potter. They potentially have a Top Gun license that will not feature Tom Antonio Cruz. Just when we were counting them out, I'm here to tell you that they 100% are going to make a Matrix pinball machine. And right all of a sudden, if you think about Eric Meunier or Mark Sadan making the Matrix The Jersey Jack Pinball Finally, they would use all of these lights for a really cool like green and black Version of a Jersey Jack game and all of a sudden everyone's like yeah, I would buy a matrix sight unseen from Jersey Jack Absolutely sight unseen I would buy the matrix from Jersey Jack I would not buy Elton John and I continue to hear reports from everybody that Elton John sales are just abysmal This is a game that is not going to happen. And there's no way Jersey Jack Pinball is going to get people into this game. You know, but it's a weird place now for Jersey Jack. It's October of 2023. They just released Elton John and most people don't want it. So when are they going to release their next title? And if they've got these other titles in development, is this game just going to be like a blip on the radar for Jersey Jack? I think it is. Here's what I think is going to happen with Elton John. Elton John, not many people are going to order it, they're not going to make many, and the moment they move on to the next game, then everybody's going to want it. That's what happens in pinball. The moment they say they're not making anymore, everybody will want this pin. The moment everyone can have it, nobody wants it. That's the story of Elton John. Elton John, a sales failure. Galactic Tank Force, a sales failure. Labyrinth seems to be doing quite all right. I've been hearing great stories about the sales numbers of Labyrinth. It's not a theme for me. I'm happy Barrels of Fun got this game out in the right way. I look forward to seeing what they do next. But I'm just going to say this right now. At these prices, if you look at what's coming out in pinball, Stern's got Jaws, then Dungeons and Dragons, and then maybe Pokemon and John Wick. Are these the themes you really want for this much money? This is going to be the reckoning in pinball. I'm just not sure these are the titles everybody wants. Where are the AAA themes? And pinball companies did this to themselves. They raised prices to a point now where each game needs to be a masterpiece based on a AAA theme And that not pinball That not where this hobby has always been it always been like once out of every five titles there going to be a triple a theme but now at these prices they need every single game to be a triple a theme or you not buying but the problem is this is the distributors have to buy every single game and they have to buy a lot of each game or else they not going to get those triple a game allotments and that is what going to sink all of the Hey, what's going on? That doesn't happen. That didn't happen in years prior. And now we're seeing like distributors put up holiday sales where they're taking $2,000 off the price of a game. And rest assured people, these distributors are not making money on these sales. They just need to get their money back. Like if you're selling a game for $2,000 off, that's the profit margin of a distributor. So they just need to move this thing on so they can free up space and free up money to buy a new game. I don't know, I'm at the point now, people, where like if Jaws is a flop, this is something we haven't thought about. Imagine if Jaws is not a successful launch at Stern. Imagine if the artwork is terrible. Imagine if like the layout is more of what Keith Elwin's been giving us. Imagine if there's no assets in this game. Imagine if you don't want to buy Jaws on day one. Just think about this scenario for a moment. And I'm going to take a moment to just give you a little bit of a sneak peek at the pinball game. Imagine if everybody in the pinball world did not buy Jaws new in box when they revealed the game. Imagine if we understood the power we have as a buyer base and as a community and we just said no and we didn't buy it. What would happen? Think about it for a minute. What would happen if we all just didn't buy the game? The price would come down. The distributors would have to sell it to us at a discount. Hot Tab�� Nice to meet y'all! I think that's where pinball is at for a lot of you. I think we're tired of the content creators that are distributors telling us to buy everything instantly. I think we're over the FOMO. I think we're over the pressure from them. I don't wake up every day and work really hard to make my distributor friends rich. That's not why I'm in this. That's not why I love pinball. I want pinball machines to be magical. I want them to give me themes where I don't even think about it. I do want to buy a game on day one because they nailed it. But I'm just saying right now, I don't think Jaws is going to nail it. I really don't. I don't think it's going to have any assets from the movie. I don't think it's going to nail it in the artwork department. And I don't think it's a game where I'm going to run at right away. I just don't. And I don't think Jaws is really going to be hard to get in any form. And now knowing that they're going to make a 50th anniversary of Jaws in 2025, there's no way I'm going to go near a Jaws LE. I'm absolutely not going to go near it. So you heard it here first people, Kaneda's Pinball Podcast is telling you that Stern will release a Jaws 50th anniversary edition and they will absolutely destroy the value if you buy an LE version of the game. And if this is not correct, then they should come out and say it's not going to happen, but they won't do it. They will never do it because they know it's happening and my sources are correct. Everybody enjoy this nine minute version of a Guns N' Roses song the world has never heard and realize why Sweet Child O' Mine, Paradise City, and Welcome to the Jungle is so damn good and when Axl fired the entire band he got songs like this. This is like the Guns N' Roses equivalent of Galactic Tank Force. It's what happens when you don't really have the right people around you, you drop crap like this into the world. Thank you for the support, more shows coming every week. Have a great weekend and there won't be a Saturday morning spectacular tomorrow. I am traveling so that will happen a week from tomorrow. Everybody later. Have a great day.z Jeff King, hips and bean, I only regret is that I never took the time to forget I'll lose them for him being that I never spent I know to understand that I don't respect And not to find meaningorg and you'll all be sorry Can anybody help me when the pin just walks out Can anybody help me when the pin just walks out Flippin Out Pinball Podcast Flip N Out Pinball Podcast Flip N Out Pinball Podcast Flip N Out Pinball Podcast They know what they're doing now. Don't know what they're doing now. They know what they're doing now. Don't know what they're doing now. They know what they're doing now. My only regret is that I never took the time to begin. Flip N Out Pinball Podcast We are dreamin' of Tak씨's 不 vampire in yeah For now, the& organica &째x the19ltimes Battle of Indianapolis vs. Portland LLC Flip N Out Pinball Podcast Closed Captioning by The Closed Captioning Project. I was there for you. It's all I could do. Oh, but it's over now. Oh, but it's over now. Jack O'Neill Liane Lewis, Nate Ven inspirational, Ray restored Akselso H guy Firmer Mustard's in you, mustard's in you, mustard's in you, mustard's in you, mustard's in you. The more I did what I did, I did for you, the stronger the more I learned you put me through. I never cared how much I did when I kept you, to make it better there was nothing that I wouldn't do. Post 3 is No My Pinball大哥 Marc Both pressed record and I'll be coming down. I will stand for you. It's all I could do. I will stand for you. It's all I could do.thiXa pardon человека