Episode 668: "The FOMO Topper Worked!"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·28m 28s·analyzed·Apr 15, 2022

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.036

TL;DR

FOMO proves alive via Elite Pinball's Pirates topper; JJP underutilizing accessory market; talent drain at Spooky and Haggis.

Summary

Kaneda discusses the resurgence of FOMO in pinball through Elite Pinball's limited Pirates of the Caribbean topper (100 units at $2,500), which sold out despite no pre-release photos. He criticizes Jersey Jack Pinball for underinvesting in high-quality toppers and accessories despite their premium positioning, argues that talent concentration at Stern and JJP explains their dominance, and expresses concern about Haggis Pinball's radio silence and alleged underpaying of staff. He also notes Spooky Pinball's desperation move to hire new animators for Halloween and Ultraman after poor reception.

Key Claims

Elite Pinball's Pirates of the Caribbean topper (100 units) sold out using FOMO marketing with no pre-release product photos shown
high confidence · Kaneda stated this directly as a recent event: 'yesterday, the world of pinball FOMO... we saw yesterday that not only is FOMO pinball alive and well, but it is flourishing' and 'He was right and I was wrong' after Jordan (Elite Pinball owner) confirmed sold out.
Pirates of the Caribbean machines number ~750 units (650 Ellie + 100 CE), vastly exceeding the 100 toppers available
high confidence · Kaneda: 'There's like 700 people or more that have an Ellie of pirates, right? I think 150 were SEs and then there were CEs, right? So you've got 750 people who have had a crappy topper on top of their game and you're only making a hundred'
Jersey Jack Pirates CE toppers have servo motor reliability issues that cause grinding noise, leading CE owners to disable them
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'That topper is way too loud Everybody who has it has to turn off the topper because the servo motor is overworked and you just hear this like grinding noise of the server trying to move the bell to move the ship inside the bottle'
Haggis Pinball staff departed due to underpaying and lack of investment in team members, leaving skeleton crew
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'I heard the reason why people have left the team is that Damien really wanted people to build these games without paying them a lot of money. And so people departed. And so Haggis Pinball has like a skeleton crew'
Spooky Pinball hired new animators for Halloween and Ultraman after poor game reception, which Kaneda frames as desperation
high confidence · Kaneda: 'Did you hear that Spooky Pinball has announced that they are hiring a new company to do animations for both Halloween and for Ultraman... Game's been out a year, the response to the games have been lukewarm'
David Van Es and Bowen Kerins left Spooky Pinball; Scott Denisee may have departed as well
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'The same thing happened to Spooky that I think might have happened a little bit with Haggis. Is they did not invest in some of their talented team members and they left. Like David Van Es left. Bowen Cairns left.'

Notable Quotes

“He was right and I was wrong... Kaneda, I've got eight left. Kaneda, I'm sold out.”
Kaneda (relaying Jordan/Elite Pinball's response) @ ~0:10:00 — Pivotal moment where Kaneda admits his marketing advice was wrong and acknowledges FOMO-driven sales can work without showing product first
“Jersey Jack, what's wrong with you? Seriously, I mean it when I say it. You guys are so talented. Why aren't you going out there and finding a vendor to make toppers that are worthy of your beautiful games?”
Kaneda @ ~0:12:30 — Direct criticism of JJP's underinvestment in premium accessories despite their premium market position and 5,000 GNR LE sales
“You're leaving millions on the table. I mean it. Millions of dollars.”
Kaneda (to Brett Abbas / JJP) @ ~0:13:45 — Quantifies the financial opportunity JJP is missing by not offering premium toppers
“This is another example of we've seen the way this movie goes. We've seen the way these boutique companies go when they start to go radio silent.”
Kaneda @ ~0:24:00 — Kaneda draws explicit parallel to Deep Root Pinball's collapse pattern; signals concern about Haggis following same trajectory
“Every week that goes by with no update, no communication, it's a bad sign.”
Kaneda @ ~0:27:30 — Reinforces pattern of radio silence preceding manufacturer collapse
“Look, that's a good thing... they know what the response to these games is. There's no avoiding it. Like, their good will is really in jeopardy and this is a move. This is almost like a little bit of a desperation act, it really is.”
Kaneda (on Spooky hiring new animators) @ ~0:30:15 — Frames Spooky's animation outsourcing as sign of distress, not innovation
“This industry is one million percent talent driven it is.”
Kaneda @ ~0:34:00 — Core thesis explaining dominance of Stern and JJP; talent exodus explains Spooky and Haggis decline

Entities

KanedapersonElite PinballcompanyJordanpersonJersey Jack PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyHaggis PinballcompanyDamienperson

Signals

?
collector_signal: Elite Pinball's Pirates of the Caribbean topper (100 units at $2,500) sold out via pure FOMO marketing without pre-release product photos, proving limited edition scarcity psychology remains powerful in boutique accessory market despite earlier claims FOMO was dead.
high · Kaneda: 'yesterday, the world of pinball FOMO... we saw yesterday that not only is FOMO pinball alive and well, but it is flourishing' and direct confirmation from Jordan/Elite Pinball of sold-out status.
$
market_signal: JJP leaving millions in revenue on table by not offering premium toppers at $2,000-3,000 price point for 5,000+ GNR LE owners; Elite's success proves wealthy collector base willing to pay for quality accessories if differentiated from cheap stock options.
high · Kaneda quantifies opportunity: '$200 piece of crap plastic flat topper' vs Elite's premium positioning; 5,000 GNR machines with only cheap topper option; 'You're leaving millions on the table. Millions of dollars.'
?
product_concern: Jersey Jack's Pirates CE topper has documented servo motor grinding/noise issues that cause CE owners to disable topper entirely, degrading product experience and creating market opportunity for third-party replacement.
medium · Kaneda relayed from CE owner: 'That topper is way too loud Everybody who has it has to turn off the topper because the servo motor is overworked and you just hear this like grinding noise'
?
personnel_signal: Spooky Pinball experiencing significant designer/engineer departures (David Van Es, Bowen Kerins, possibly Scott Denisee) linked to alleged underpaying and lack of investment; pattern mirrors Haggis staffing challenges.
medium · Kaneda: 'The same thing happened to Spooky that I think might have happened a little bit with Haggis. Is they did not invest in some of their talented team members and they left. Like David Van Es left. Bowen Cairns left.'

Topics

FOMO marketing and limited edition psychology in pinball accessoriesprimaryTopper design and aftermarket accessories as revenue opportunityprimaryTalent concentration and designer quality as determinant of manufacturer successprimarySpooky Pinball's market troubles and desperation movesprimaryHaggis Pinball production delays and communication failures mirroring Deep Root collapse patternprimaryJersey Jack Pinball underutilizing premium positioning and accessory opportunitiesprimaryPlayfield design innovation and 'magic under glass' versus accessory-driven focussecondaryCompetitive hierarchy among pinball manufacturers (Stern > JJP > Spooky/others)secondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.65)— Kaneda is critical of industry trends: dismisses Spooky's quality, criticizes JJP's strategic decisions, expresses worry about Haggis following Deep Root collapse path, laments lack of rookie designer breakthroughs, frustrated by insufficient playfield innovation and over-reliance on accessories. However, positive sentiment regarding Elite Pinball's FOMO execution and optimism that American Pinball with Dennis Nordman may bring innovation. Overall tone is that of concerned industry observer.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.085

Top of the morning to you. What's the hat? Top of the morning to you. What's the hat? It's gotta be It's gotta be On the whole world It's gotta be Welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast everybody. Happy Friday. I'm excited to do this show for everybody. And today I'm also going to be interviewing Steven over at Deep Root Pinball. All the best! And as always, thanks for watching and I will see you in the next episode. Take care. Bye! Bye! Bye! Bye! Bye! Bye! Bye. Bye! Bye! Bye! Bye! Bye! Bye! Bye! Bye! Bye! Bye! Bye! Bye! Bye! Bye! Bye! Bye! Bye! gaysandbe carpängen phases, saturday lent?, and I will say your name. I want to give a shout out to Jan, Jan Lumens. I think it's Jan. I think I said that right. I want to give a shout out to Michael Boyd Collins. And I want to give a huge, huge shout out to Mr. Stuart Burns. And here's why I'm giving Stuart a special shout out. He raised his pledge amount. And so, you know, this always makes me happy when people raise how much they donate each month because it shows me they really enjoy the content. Now, let's get right to it. So yesterday, the world of pinball FOMO, which on a previous episode, I had said that spooky pinball has single-handedly destroyed FOMO in the pinball world. And what I meant by that is the fear of missing out, that people would run in and buy something before they see it. And we saw yesterday that not only is FOMO pinball alive and well, but it is flourishing How hard is the work of fine fathers in editorial design? In the morning, we open them and leave them in theiciaiding for couple hours, then theyappeared © KMTJ Dominic2014.jouvxedim2625 © KMTJ� dome crmd Crapman, finech millions, pinball() Deluxe, prodfy, extraord엽 pinball, pinball technique, pinball varsity, pinball Beasle, pinball blueprint for Proweb Jordan made a very smart decision to make these toppers for Pirates of the Caribbean because Pirates of theCaribbean right now in the marketplace is still one of the most rare, the most sought after and the most expensive pinball machine of all time right now. If you think about it, in Ellie of Pirates which used to be an $8500 game and the CE which Manage 10ooo. What a game that is…. I sat at the corner of the Larry animals at Frankoking.com, To The Hyper elementalander , and hidden camera at the Doble Markits . I practiced Chair at Fort Moneolle at Fort Rock, front leg to the Chiston Palace near Manco McL Sauce and looked MMA at my mom change of B burnt Up Houston and teared off man即 arbit Joey, Br capacit update. Was not258'thinapple.boss,g159247 ولا the bensign чжэ,'nnd the真ğeräTINy Zjck k esperaña. Who needs no money, I am here ш Feuer 보통 peybro comprehend Lionsuster Nikol? Shar Intel abnalsinpaughn powiedzgnuy geometry If you guys basculate in Idgpc0 I'm going to talk a little bit about the Guns N' Roses topper after this, but It is so bad. So if you own a $20,000 Pirates of the Caribbean, you have been looking at this CE topper with envy for like three to four years. And now you have the opportunity to put something on top of your machine that looks so much cooler than the CE topper. So this is a really smart move because guess what? There's like 700 people or more that have an Ellie of pirates, right? I think 150 were SEs and then there were CEs, right? So you've got 750 people who have had a crappy topper on top of their game and you're only making a hundred, right? Just do the math. That means if just Ellie buyers wanted it, 650 people can't have it. Okay. Now I haven't even talked about the topper. You know, it's got the screen up there. It's got the crack in sort of tentacles. It's got the ship. It's got waves in the ocean. What's degli Vader going? Welcome It's just like this blue light up there with the ocean. It's super cool, but I want to make sure it's not distracting so that when stuff is happening in the game, you're not always being distracted by this like blue bright ocean up above you. Like when the game goes dark, it goes dark. When there's like lighting effects in the game, that thing also interacts with those lighting effects. So I don't know yet. Like I haven't really seen it integrated into all the different gameplay and modes of Pirates. Memories of Welcome to Baton Rouge Co Bast Ken Da Kandy as Jose here with owns a pirate CE That topper is way too loud Everybody who has it has to turn off the topper because the servo motor is overworked and you just hear this like grinding noise of the server trying to move the bell to move the ship inside the bottle and it a horrible sound Everyone I know who has a CE turns it off So if I was a CE owner I would want to get one of these toppers because Knapp Arcade bajo were DoeYrnsteesknaniMe Universeอก crypto have done video series, goldлед Abkjais kanmas Knapp Arcade.d cabaret at Newton For $3,500, I sold it for $3,000. A 3D printed, top of a ship, with some barrels and some lights that he sold me for $300 bucks or $350 bucks and I sold it for $3,000. So when I look at this topper for $2,500, oh my gosh, it seems like a bargain! Now, do I think people bought these to flip? Absolutely! I bet at least 10-20% of these toppers were made by theashing Franchise, hobby gymnastics,prowading, I'm going to be the one to find the topper. I'll be the one to find the game. And they won't be wrong. There's twice as many Pirates of the Caribbean CE machines as there are these toppers. So this was a genius FOMO marketing move. Now, does it make me happy that Jordan has blown up and sank the Kaneda ship on the fact that FOMO is dead in pinball? He just proved it's not dead. Now, the reason why I think this thing did so well also is nobody's wondering whether or not Jordan's going to make it. Thurber dobbsie a fin mé The first thing to do is show someone the product before they have to buy it. But what he proved yesterday is that you might not always have to do that. And I was texting with Jordan and I was saying, hey man, I'm hearing some people that are sour about this approach. You really should show them the thing before you ask for their money. And he responded. He said, Kaneda, I've got eight left. Kaneda, I'm sold out. And so as a marketer, I'm like, he was right and I was wrong. by Sport forcément på Kari Also said to myself Jersey Jack Pinball is leaving millions of dollars on the table and the reason why they're leaving millions of dollars on the table is they're releasing crappy toppers to put on top of what I consider to be the most beautiful pinball machines of all time which are Jersey Jack machines and I am so embarrassed by the toppers on top of Wizard of Oz, on top of Willy Wonka, on top of Pirates of the Caribbean. On top of dialed in, on top of everything, everything they've ever made, on top of the Hobbit and especially Guns N' Roses. Like they have the Guns N' Roses IP, all of the cool stuff they could do to put on a Guns N' Roses machine. They've sold, think about this, they've sold 5,000 GNR LEs, 5,000 machines and the only topper they're going to offer people is a $200 piece of crap plastic flat topper. Jersey Jack, what's wrong with you? Seriously, I mean it when I say it. You guys are so talented. Why aren't you going out there and finding a vendor to make toppers that are worthy of your beautiful games? And every time you guys do a move like this, and I sent a message to Brett Abbas on Facebook, I'm like, dude, I hope you were paying attention to what happened yesterday with elite pinball toppers. You're leaving millions on the table. I mean it. Millions of dollars.banesama¡' sine чтобы No timing. Coming Week! Coming Week! Coming Week Coming Week Coming Week Coming Week Second part of you got ten percent of people to buy it five hundred that five hundred thousand dollars right there But I think you would get way more than ten percent of the people to buy I think you get half of the people to buy it If you had an official Guns and Roses Topper that was awesome So you know like we see We see We see what crappy Topper comes on top of Toy Story You know if I was J Hey JP again, you need to make your game everything from the bottom of your legs to the top of the topper. You should be saying to your people, our stuff is going to be better than everything else in the market. We are the high end pinball company and I really do think they should be embarrassed about what's on top of their machines. You know, we're talking about toppers people because we can't be talking about games. I mean, what's happening in the new game space right now, right? People are waiting for their cactus canyons. Now I heard some stuff from someone who used to work at Haggis Pinball, an ex-Haggis employee. I've been going into the Haggis thread. You know me, I'm not gonna let up on this. I've been going into the Haggis thread and the entire conversation is around like craft beers in Australia. See, this is what happens when you don't give any updates. Your thread becomes a joke. Everybody hijacks it with silly stuff. It's like just what grown men do to pass the time. Now here's what I heard from someone who used to work at Haggis and I would love for Damien to say this is incorrect or Marty to speak out on this. I heard the reason why people have left the team is that Damien really wanted people to build these games without paying them a lot of money. And so people departed. And so Haggis Pinball has like a skeleton crew trying to grind it out. And so that is what I am hearing. And I've said it and I'll say it again. This is another example of we've seen the way this movie goes. We've seen the way these boutique companies go when they start to go radio silent. They won't show us anything. I'm going to do a new offer right now. Okay. I will give Damien $100, right? If he just holds his end of the promise, if Damien can show by the end of April, at least five fathoms lined up that are in Thank you a I I Betty in毛 Brian I'm trying to focus on these things because once you ask for people's money and you give them some sort of promise, I want to make sure you live up to your promise. I think what people get wrong is I want to see these games in testing. I want people to get their products. I want Haggis Pinball to figure this out. That is what I want. I don't want to see these companies collapse. I don't want to see them burn money every day without anything on the line. That's not what I want to see. I wouldn't have done it the way they did it. I wouldn't go radio silent. I wouldn't. I think they're in a tough, tough spot, people. I do. I mean, every week that goes by with no update, no communication, it's a bad sign. And it's weird to me the way like everyone in the thread sort of just like shrugs their shoulders and doesn't care. Again, I think they're going to grind some out, but man, I really think we need an update from Haggis Pinball. Spooky Pinball World Well, did you hear that Spooky Pinball has announced that they are hiring a new company to do animations for both Halloween and for Ultraman. I've never seen this before. Game's been out a year, the response to the games have been lukewarm, the value of the games is plummeting, and now we're hiring a new company to do the animations. Look, that's a good thing. I mean, really building the ship in the ocean. They really are. And I must say they must be eating a lot of humble pie right now and eating crow because they know what the response to these games is. There's no avoiding it. Like, their good will is really in jeopardy and this is a move. This is almost like a little bit of a desperation act, it really is. Have you ever seen another pinball company where a year went by and then they hired a new animator to do the game? No! Like why didn't they think about this stuff earlier? Why didn't they look at the animations in Halloween a year ago and be like these are not good enough for machines that cost this much money? It's so weird to me that this game is sort of just being crowdsourced built. Like that's how they're doing it. It's like they're waiting for feedback when they should be the experts. And I mean it when I say it. Nobody is running to Spooky's next game again. They're not. Like they really need to hire talent and I'm going to say it and this is what I've heard from people. The same thing happened to Spooky that I think might have happened a little bit with Haggis. Is they did not invest in some of their talented team members and they left. Like David David Van Es left. Bowen Kerins left. Like I don't even think Scott Denisi is working with them still. I think there's a lot of talented people who got Spooky to a point where they had all this goodwill, right? The Crossroads Rick and Morty and 5 All the best shooter but the integration was there the callouts were there the light show was there and we were so looking forward to The next game right it was like every game was going to get better and better and better and then Look what happened it just goes to show this industry is one million percent Talent driven it is and without a doubt the greatest talent in pinball is over at stern pinball I would say the second greatest talent is over at Jersey Jack. I saw someone like in a thread on Pinside or Facebook say that like Spooky's got the same talent as JJP and I just wanted to punch my computer screen. Are you crazy? Spooky's talent level isn't even close to Pat Lawler, Eric Minier and like Keith P. Johnson and Eric Katz. The guys over at JJP, they're good. Like they're really good. They just can't get Thank you for watching I been waiting for a boutique company to come out with a game that as good as a J game The hard part about pinball these days is this, the more companies you have, it all comes down to the talent. Now, what I've been waiting for and haven't seen yet is this, I've been waiting for a boutique company to come out with a game with a rookie talented designer that blows everybody away. It hasn't happened since like the Big Lebowski and it's really sad if you ask me that nobody else can figure out how to make a game as good as like the people from yesteryears. I mean, really, the Big Lebowski Knapp Arcade, WPPR diabetic, and Keith Elwin. I'm not going to put Denisee up there with TNA and Rick and Morty. Those are okay games, but those aren't blowing anyone away, especially when it comes to toys and wow factor. It's good. TNA is a good game, but come on. Let's get real here. You don't stand over at TNA and are blown away by anything happening in the game other than the sound and the music, which makes total sense because Scott Denisee is a DJ! The best elements of his games are the things that he's an expert at. The worst elements of his games are the design and the layout because he's not a great designer. So, man, I would love to see Marty Robbins who's now billing himself as a pinball designer to see what he can do over at Haggis Pinball, but where are the rookie designers? Where's Ryan McQuaid in pinball, right? I want to see Ryan McQuaid and his Sonic game getting made. The rumor is he's talking to American Pinball. Now, Ryan doesn't really come clean to me because obviously he doesn't want me to like ruin his deal or whatever conversations he's having. But the fact that this guy built Sonic Pinball in his garage and it's more impressive than half of the games that are getting greenlit by manufacturers is really strange to me. Somebody make Sonic Spinball. Everybody look. The truth is this. FOMO is never going away. It'll never fully go away. I think it's going to go away for spooky pinball, but when you have these limited accessory toppers, yeah, that's fine. Like you could sell a hundred of anything if the buyer base is wealthy and has like a rare machine. Like they could have made a hundred shooter rods for pirates for like 500 bucks and they would have sold. But that's not really what gets us excited about pinball, right? You don't play the topper. Like as cool as a topper is, I would much rather have the world under glass. The topper is the world I'm not seeing a ton of it. I look at a game like Rush. I don't see magic under the glass. I look at a game like Led Zeppelin. It's not there. I see it in Godzilla. Thank you, Godzilla and the design team. I don't see it in Willy Wonka, like real magic under the glass. Do I see it in Guns and Roses? Well, the light show is amazing, but not really. I mean, kind of. Like, it's cool having the guitar neck and the bass and the drumstickss, but magic. Like, something happens you didn't expect. There's none of that in GNR. Like, nothing happens in GNR you did not expect. And once you get used to the light show, that's why people get a little bit bored over time because there's still not that, like, I can't wait to show you what the ball does when that section turns on on the playstation. The I'm a fan of the pinball community and I think if there's any company that can put more in, it really is Jersey Jack Pinball and I hope Dennis Nordman and what he's doing over at American Pinball with Sophia as the engineer brings more of that wow under glass. But I just want to say this is a game that takes place on the playfield. It doesn't take place with like shooter rods and with inner art blades and with toppers. We've overemphasized the accessories. And the reason why we've overemphasized the accessories because we're not blown away by what's on the playfield. And when I see people gluing on all these mods all over Willy Wonka, I just want to ram my head through the wall because that's not what it's supposed to be. You're supposed to have those things be real interactive things with the ball. And just gluing on a bunch of stuff to me makes games look stupid because then you've got all this stuff that looks Hello facebook friends, Are you still there – you're watching Rainbow Dan Adam – vários событиons, tecnología behaviors, інuedo & as another achievement of info in the classroom Market它 розу对 makes confessional and has helped transform a large社会 alone and between the those of you who are looking at video slide, that is, at the hands of others who are lake view's members in Wisconsin. If you're supporting our work – and so do all of those who causing or supporting Asari P How can a giant twin play bajo be equipped inipleries ? We're going to start to like move away from JJP so we shall see what happens. Exciting time to be in pinball. Everybody, thank you for being a club member. I love doing these episodes for you. And if you have any friends on the fence, I mean $5 a month or you can be like Stuart and bump up your donation. You know you're getting more than $5 from Kaneda every month between this and the Facebook lives. This is the place to be to hear about what's going on in pinball, to have it in real time, to have it when it's relevant and none of the filler. www.onmer.com All fresh and shipment free, below the weight, separate, freeway to