A Kaneda PSA: WAIT AND SEE

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·15m 20s·analyzed·Sep 12, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.027

TL;DR

Kaneda PSA: Stop pre-ordering unplayed pinball games; wait 90+ days for code maturity and price drops.

Summary

Kaneda urges the pinball community to stop pre-ordering games and making judgments before playing them, citing X-Men Pinball's disappointing stream reveal as a cautionary example. He criticizes inflated pricing ($12,000-$15,000), argues games lose significant value within months, and predicts Avatar will outperform X-Men when streamed. He advocates for waiting 90+ days to let games mature via code updates and secondary market pricing to stabilize.

Key Claims

X-Men Pinball is not ready for release; it needs significant work on music, callouts, and code polish
high confidence · Kaneda directly, based on watching the X-Men Pinball stream
X-Men LE will drop from $13,000 to $10,000 within six months
medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction based on historical pricing patterns in the industry
Stern Pinball does not implement community feedback once games ship because payment has already been received
medium confidence · Kaneda's opinion on manufacturer practice
Avatar will stream significantly better than X-Men and demonstrate why patience is justified
medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction made before Avatar stream
Manufacturing budgets for these premium games are only $4,000-$5,000, making $12,000-$15,000 pricing indefensible
low confidence · Kaneda's assertion without supporting evidence
Community declared X-Men GOTY before any gameplay was seen, fueling false hype
high confidence · Kaneda's observation of Pinside and broader community sentiment
Games need at least six months of code updates to reach their potential quality
medium confidence · Kaneda's statement about X-Men specifically, generalizable to modern Stern releases
Stern's lighting system is approximately 10 years behind current standards
low confidence · Kaneda's subjective assessment of X-Men Pinball's visual presentation
Jersey Jack machines excel at light shows and create glow effects when all house lights are off
medium confidence · Kaneda's expectation for Avatar based on JJP's track record
If Avatar pricing were $12,500 (CE) and $9,500 (LE), more collectors would purchase despite current $15,000 and $12,000 pricing

Notable Quotes

“An American Pinball machine is not great until you play it and realize that the sum of the parts are working together in a magical way.”
Kaneda @ N/A — Core thesis of the episode: aesthetic and design alone don't guarantee quality
“Before any of you did that, you proclaimed it to be the game of the year... We are Pinball judging a book by its cover instantly.”
Kaneda @ N/A — Critique of premature community hype cycle around X-Men
“The only thing amazing in pinball right now on day one is the pricing. That's the only thing that's amazing.”
Kaneda @ N/A — Central argument about unsustainable pricing and value destruction
“If you ordered X LE, think how stupid that order feels right now.”
Kaneda @ N/A — Direct criticism of early X-Men LE buyers; strong sentiment indicator
“The cardboard box in these games is the freaking budget on the game, people.”
Kaneda @ N/A — Provocative claim about manufacturing economics; implies cost structure doesn't justify retail pricing
“A $13,000 X-Men LE in six months will be $10,000 and you'll easily be able to get one.”
Kaneda @ N/A — Specific price prediction with timeline; suggests oversupply and demand weakness
“I just didn't see a single moment of wow... I think that's my main takeaway.”
Kaneda @ N/A — Explanation for X-Men's disappointing presentation despite visual polish
“Stern's lighting system is 10 years old. Nothing about a Stern machine atmospherically is creating that impact.”
Kaneda @ N/A — Technical critique of Stern's platform capabilities relative to competitors
“If you think that lights don't equal an amazing pinball experience, what do you think pinball was for like 70 years?”

Entities

KanedapersonStern PinballcompanyJersey Jack PinballcompanyX-Men PinballgameAvatargame Jack Dangerperson Zombie Yetiperson

Signals

?
product_concern: X-Men Pinball criticized for incomplete code, poor music/callouts, and lack of polish required for premium pricing tier
high · Kaneda states game 'is not quite ready for center stage' and 'needs at least six months to get better'; notes music and callouts specifically need addressing
$
market_signal: Kaneda predicts X-Men LE will depreciate from $13,000 to $10,000 within six months; broader pattern of $4,000-$5,000 value loss in first year
medium · Kaneda claims 'history tells you it's gonna go down significantly' and makes specific six-month forecast; references GOTY-claimed game losing $4,000-$5,000 in year one
~
sentiment_shift: X-Men hype collapsed between pre-stream declarations and actual gameplay reveal; community sentiment inverted rapidly
high · Kaneda observes 'people were already declaring this game to be the next greatest hit' before stream, then notes 'look at the tune [now]' after stream performance disappointed
?
rumor_hype: Kaneda predicts Keith Elwin new game, Metallica Remastered, Spike 3, Spooky Pinball new title, and Alice in Wonderland all shipping within 90 days (October-December window)
medium · Kaneda mentions these as options available by December if collectors wait; frames them as reasons to defer X-Men and Avatar purchases
?
product_strategy: Current LE/CE pricing ($12,000-$15,000) unsustainable and destroying collector confidence; Kaneda argues lower price points would increase demand without proportional value loss
medium · Kaneda proposes Avatar at $12,500 CE / $9,500 LE would drive adoption; notes 'at these prices, these games need to be universally impressive, universally loved'

Topics

Pre-order culture and early purchasing biasprimaryX-Men Pinball reception and quality concernsprimaryPinball pricing inflation and secondary market depreciationprimaryCode maturity and post-launch updatesprimaryCommunity hype cycles and FOMO dynamicsprimaryManufacturer design philosophy and platform limitations (Stern vs JJP)secondaryLight shows and atmospheric effects as pinball experience anchorssecondaryAvatar vs X-Men competitive positioningsecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.72)— Kaneda is critical of community behavior (premature hype), manufacturer practices (Stern not implementing feedback), and industry economics (unsustainable pricing). However, tone is advisory/cautionary rather than hostile; he's attempting to educate. Slight positivity toward JJP and Avatar's potential, but overwhelmingly skeptical of current market dynamics.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.046

Why did woodpecker necessarily bring this important message in Pinballcellent Franchise, If there ever was a moment in pinball to justify the Canadian phrase I've been saying Terms of discussion for the last few years wait and see it was last night's stream of X-Men Pinball by Stern Pinball. I'm not here to tell you like the game is gonna be horrible it's not that bad but what I saw last night and what I think a lot of people are picking up on is this is a game that's not quite ready for center stage it's not quite ready to be in your home it's not quite ready to be in game rooms it's The game is not ready to be out in the world. And here is the issue with everything now. At this much money, when John Youssi a game where maybe the music is just driving people crazy and they need to work on that, and they maybe need to do that. Maybe the callouts are really bad and they need to address the feedback on the callouts and maybe they need to do that. But Stern Pinball doesn't really do that. They don't really take this feedback into account and the reason why Sternpinballnormally doesn't make any of these changes because you've already given them your money. And if we go back a week from yesterday, people were already declaring this game to be the next greatest hit from Stern Pinball before you even saw the game. And I think we all have to just wake up. It's not just some people out there ordering LEs early. It's not people going to Pinside proclaiming this to be the next great game since Godzilla. I think all of us need to understand some things and they're really easy to understand. That a pinball machine is not great until you play it and realize that the sum of the parts are working together in a magical way to do a lot of stuff that needs to be done right for the game to be awesome. A game can look awesome, like Zombie Yeti can make anything look incredible. A game can have unique design. Jack Danger can design a unique layout like he did with X-Men. That doesn't mean the game is gonna be great. It doesn't mean the game is gonna be fun. It doesn't mean the code is gonna be something you're gonna wanna jump on time and time again. And yet before any of you did that, you proclaimed it to be the game of the year. I saw this on Pinsight. People were saying this is gonna win the game of the year without even seeing it. We are judging a book by its cover instantly And we're declaring X-Men the greatest game ever and Jersey Jack Pinball's in trouble and X-Men just destroyed Avatar. Like we were hearing that for an entire week and now look at the tune. And you know what's gonna happen tonight? Jersey Jack is gonna stream a fully featured game that is done. It's not gonna have incomplete code. I think it's gonna have like a fully fleshed out rule system. Clips, audio from the movie, callouts, music, etc. I don't know if it's good or not. I'm gonna see it tonight like the rest of you, but I'm gonna make an early prediction. I think Avatar is gonna stream ten times better than X-Men did. And I think all of the mood and all of the vibe is gonna teach everybody a very important lesson. You can judge a pinball machine until John Youssi it See it being played until you jump on it until you feel what it gonna feel like in your own hands And I think there no reason to buy any of these games early Neither game should be bought early Neither game should be ordered this week If you ordered X LE think how stupid that order feels right now because here the thing here the thing and we all know this X-Men is a game that needs at least six months to get better. Okay, so here's what's going to happen. In six months, when X-Men finally gets the polish it needs, Keith Elwin's new game will be out, right? Probably. Well, probably gonna have another game from Metallica Remastered Spike 3 is gonna drop in the world. I'm just gonna say this right now. A $13,000 X-Men LE in six months will be $10,000 and you'll easily be able to get one. And the way things look last night, I don't think there's gonna be like a huge demand to get one because remember everybody, you all think every game is gonna end up being coded by the team that codes Keith Elwin's games and the team that has coded like games in the past. Timing and Subtitles by the Amara.org community Autumn This is a very simple and easy way to get the ball out of the danger room. It's very easy and it's not going to take you too long to get the ball out of the danger room. There's a center post there for a reason which means the game was damn brutally hard without it put there. And so all of a sudden, right, all of a sudden everyone's learning that we all need to wait and see. We need to stop prematurely declaring these games amazing until they actually are amazing. The only thing amazing in pinball right now on day one is the pricing. That's the only thing that's amazing. Every game is priced as if it's the greatest game ever and that is what is destroyed new in box for me. It's absolutely stupid. Before you even know if the game is good, an invoice is inside your email for $12,999. That same game is going to be $9,999 in three months. And we've seen this before. The game is going to plummet the instant it comes out. And that cardboard box is the same price as the bomb on the game, people. You all need to listen to Kaneda. The cardboard box in these games is the freaking bomb on the game. If you think Stern is putting more than $4,000 into these games, you're wrong. If you think a Jersey Jack game has more than what, maybe five at the most, you're wrong. And those CEs are all going to lose five grand. And all we really want is either the prices to go down or the magic to go through the roof. Now the problem is that these prices every game needs to be as good as the top 10 games on pin side. And they're not. And we're watching two B-themed games battle it out. We don't know any other way to behave, right? K This game of all time and you gotta just understand the delusion of people like that You saying a game is the greatest of all time and yet it lost four to five thousand dollars in value in a year Why? Because nobody else sees what John Youssi? You're within your prerogative to like something but man at these prices these games need to be more universally impressive, universally loved. And I'll just say this, after watching last night's stream, the game looks beautiful. I thought the stream didn't do the game any justice because the way it was shot top down, it flattened everything. And Zombietti's artwork doesn't really connote the ball trajectory, so when you're looking at it, it just looks kind of strange, you know, watching it. It did look like it had good flow when they were going back and forth on those ramps. That was really nice. But I'm just gonna say this, like you didn't get any sense of like the sentinel. I didn't get any feeling of the magneto magnet didn't really do anything magical. I think that's my main takeaway. I just didn't see a single moment of wow. Even when they went into the future, right, and the game goes dark, it just didn't feel like in Stern's current platform, right? It's like their lighting system is 10 years old. Nothing about a Stern machine atmospherically is creating LAST IND matnrawsepticeye, q y I'm going to jump on it, but how many of you out there need to have it now when it's incomplete for $13,000? So look, everybody, here's the deal. I think Avatar is going to run circles around X-Men when it comes to the stream, and it's It's also, no matter what I see tonight, do you need a $15,000 or $12,000 avatar this week? It's shipping this week. And even though it's going to be really cool, this is the problem with all of pinball. If avatar was $12,500 for a CE and $9,500 for an LE, how many more of you would be keen on putting it in your game room? Because if you spend $12,500, at most it might go down to like $10,000 or $11,000. But if you spend $15,000, you know, history I'm just gonna tell everybody right now, look at Avatar with an open mind. votersinois, description of validation,fitsiter чего??, Saturnighty but How... If you just wait until December, you will be able to get an X-Men LE for much less than 13 after what we saw last night. You'll be able to get an Avatar CE for much less than 15 just by looking at history. You also be able to decide if you like Alice Adventures in Wonderland You also get a new game from Spooky Pinball And you also are going to get Metallica Remastered a laugh Alt person receko entwic supremij Mexe yqha Q £š Terms are as follows. P90X people, trust me, spend the next 90 days taking care of your bodies, your mind, upping your subscription from $5 to Canada to $10 to Canada now that the Saturday Morning Spectacular is back. Just a reminder, I'm taking the first couple weeks of October off, so I hope you don't leave. People are crazy. I do so much content and I need to just take a couple week off break and people are, I'm done. I'm done. so therefore, in恐merlicity technique it pertain to mainly.»Unexpected' shot I'm not saying that they're faking the amount of UV glow in the game. I will know when I get there. I just think the reason they did that is if you hit all the lights off, you can't shoot in complete darkness. I'm fully confident that a Jersey Jack machine, when all the lights are turned off, is going to glow, glow, glow. If there's one thing those games do well is really create impressive light shows and I just want to also say this I'm so tired of people saying it's a negative that Jersey Jack has the greatest light show in the history of pinball as if that's a negative if you think that lights don't equal an amazing pinball experience what the heck do you think pinball was for like 70 years people it was switches and lights that made As an impact on extinction and reduce the road ми Afghanistan of this company SiTC Math ć cosmic Mejo-enfoxxa says Sh erk whatever notes upon on asitinejojibushal capacitiesin the clearing. Tit六 the exercise the state based system in the I'm going to give you an honest and objective opinion about avatar when I go out there. They might be paying for my flight and my hotel room, but they're not paying for my opinions. I guarantee you that everybody. I'll talk to you soon. Kineda out. Kineda's Pinball Podcast. I'm going to bring you down! Subtitles by the Amara.org community