Episode 1053: "Can The Magic Match The Market in 2025?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·22m 22s·analyzed·Feb 17, 2025

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.034

TL;DR

Pinball prices inflated before quality arrived; manufacturers must deliver magic or fail.

Summary

Kaneda discusses the disconnect between pinball pricing and game quality in 2025, arguing that manufacturers raised prices before delivering the 'magic' players want. He critiques pricing strategies from Jersey Jack, Stern, and American Pinball, predicts upcoming releases (G.I. Joe, Harry Potter, King Kong, Medieval Madness remakes), and advocates for patient buying rather than chasing FOMO. He emphasizes that only truly exceptional games will survive in a market saturated with high-priced releases.

Key Claims

Jersey Jack raised prices to $12,000-$15,000 on Toy Story 4, but subsequent games (Godfather, Elton John, Avatar) haven't justified those prices.
high confidence · Kaneda, opening market analysis segment
Stern's King Kong will include a $600 price increase, bringing fully loaded machines closer to $15,000 than $10,000.
medium confidence · Kaneda, discussing King Kong pricing rumors
Jersey Jack struggled to sell Avatar machines (target ~1,500) while Guns N' Roses sold approximately 6,500 units.
medium confidence · Kaneda, comparing secondary market performance
Stern initially considered making 1,500 LEs before settling on 1,000, which would have flooded the market and caused price crashes.
medium confidence · Kaneda, discussing manufacturer overestimation of market demand
American Pinball has experienced poor leadership and has old games sitting in boxes with no market appeal.
high confidence · Kaneda, criticizing American Pinball's product strategy
Brian Savage, co-founder of Barrels of Fun, spent 25 years as head of the G.I. Joe fan club, suggesting G.I. Joe pinball is likely in development.
high confidence · Kaneda, speculating about Barrels of Fun's next release based on founder background
Metallica Remastered LE machines are depreciating rapidly; only 500 were made but many are for sale, indicating market oversaturation.
high confidence · Kaneda, discussing secondary market inventory
Stern will remake games from the pre-D&D era (Walking Dead, Ghostbusters, Tron) as new LEs to avoid cannibalizing older originals.
medium confidence · Kaneda, predicting Stern's remake strategy
Godfather CE machines originally priced at $15,000 will only fetch ~$10,000 new in box due to market saturation.
medium confidence · Kaneda, analyzing secondary market pricing expectations

Notable Quotes

“The pinball market has been inflated prematurely, in my honest opinion, before the magic arrived, right?”
Kaneda @ ~0:45 — Core thesis of the episode — prices rose without corresponding game quality improvements
“Cuphead is going to be a flop. Nobody I know is gonna make room in their game room for Cuphead.”
Kaneda @ ~3:20 — Blunt criticism of American Pinball's upcoming release, citing poor leadership and weak theme appeal
“There's only one way, really, there really is only one way to create something in pinball that is like recession proof or depreciation proof. And that is you make a magical game.”
Kaneda @ ~11:00 — Articulates the central market thesis: quality/magic is the only hedge against depreciation
“I think for some weird reason, over the last few years, these manufacturers thought the market for pinball was bigger than it really is. It's not. It hasn't grown nearly as much as they think.”
Kaneda @ ~14:30 — Diagnoses manufacturer miscalculation of market size, explaining overproduction and inventory glut
“If you have like a Metallica LE, the original one, the days of you getting $16,000 are over.”
Kaneda @ ~17:50 — Warns collectors about secondary market collapse for limited editions due to saturation
“Steve Ritchie is the king of flow and speed. Sonic the Hedgehog as a video game character, he is a freaking pinball flying around his world doing the loop-de-loops, the jumps, the springs.”
Kaneda @ ~22:15 — Articulates design synergy between designer (Ritchie) and potential IP (Sonic), showing confidence in rumored collaboration
“You used to be able to go get two Stern LEs for like 12 grand and now it's $28,000 and the games are not that much better.”
Kaneda @ ~28:45 — Quantifies the MSRP increase problem and questions whether value has kept pace
“Only fools rush in, people. All of these games, when you add it all up, there's just going to be so much available. And just wait. Be patient.”

Entities

Kanedaperson Jersey Jack PinballcompanyStern PinballcompanyAmerican Pinballcompany Barrels of FuncompanySpooky PinballcompanyMultimorphiccompany

Signals

$
market_signal: Multiple high-priced limited editions (Metallica LE, Godfather CE, Avatar) experiencing steep secondary market declines. Metallica LEs originally $13-16k now selling for $10-12k. Godfather CE originally $15k MSRP expected to fetch only $10k new in box.
high · Kaneda cites specific price comparisons and inventory observations from marketplace listings
?
business_signal: Manufacturers overestimated market size. Stern initially planned 1,500 LEs before reducing to 1,000. American Pinball has old games sitting unsold in boxes. Market cannot absorb current production rates at premium prices.
medium · Kaneda discusses Stern's production planning and American Pinball inventory glut; cites Jersey Jack Avatar underperformance vs. Guns N' Roses
?
product_strategy: Jersey Jack raised standard pricing to $12-15k with Toy Story 4, then maintained despite games not delivering proportional quality. Stern followed with incremental increases: Godzilla $10.5k → Foo Fighters $13k → James Bond/Venom/Jaws/John Wick/D&D at premium. King Kong expected $13,600 fully loaded.
high · Kaneda provides detailed pricing timeline and manufacturer-by-manufacturer analysis
$
market_signal: Collectors who chase new releases and rotate games have been 'hammered' over 3-4 years. Market shift toward keeping only truly magical games rather than constant rotation. Smart collectors now buy used/secondary market to avoid depreciation trap.
medium · Kaneda's commentary on Wes Bentley's strategy and broader observation about player psychology
~
sentiment_shift: Community realization (across collectibles markets: watches, cars, pinball) that post-COVID price inflation is unsustainable. Depreciation now impossible to ignore. Prices have detached from intrinsic game quality/enjoyment.

Topics

Price-to-Quality Disconnect in Pinball MarketprimarySecondary Market Depreciation and FOMO DynamicsprimaryUpcoming Game Announcements and Release Pipeline (2025)primaryManufacturer Pricing Strategies and Market OverestimationprimaryAmerican Pinball Leadership Issues and Product ViabilitysecondaryCollector Behavior and Smart Buying StrategiessecondaryTheme Licensing and IP Synergy with DesignerssecondaryComparison to Adjacent Collectibles Markets (Watches, Cars, Wine)mentioned

Sentiment

negative(-0.72)— Kaneda is highly critical of manufacturer pricing practices, American Pinball's execution, and market fundamentals. However, he expresses optimism about upcoming game quality (magic) and advises patient collection strategies. Mixed within negativity is underlying belief that quality games will prevail and create value.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.067

Welcome everybody to Canada's Pinball Podcast. I had a little pre-game show going on there on Facebook, and I came up with this show topic on this President's Day holiday. Now look, daycare is closed, so I got the kids here. The theme of this show, can the magic of pinball, can it catch up to the market of pinball? And those two words, I mean it, it's like a Venn diagram. We need to see more of an overlap. The magic and the market, think about them just colliding together. The pinball market has been inflated prematurely, in my honest opinion, before the magic arrived, right? Jersey Jack Pinball raised its prices on Toy Story 4. They kept those prices, $12,000 and $15,000. And then we got Godfather, Elton John, and Avatar. And none of those games, you know it, none of those games have been worth $12,000 to $15,000. Stern Pinball raised its prices. Godzilla, the most packed modern Stern over the last four years was $10,500. Then they raised the price. I think the first LE that was $13,000 was Foo Fighters, I want to say. Then James Bond, Venom, Jaws, John Wick. Then we got D&D. Has the Stern Magic like lived up to the market price of those games? I would say that Stern has done a better job of like getting the Magic close to the market. Spooky Pinballs have gotten more expensive. I think Spooky Pinballs done a good job where, you know, if you don't load it up with the butter and all the expensive toppers, you're still getting a game for below $10,000 where they're only making $888. American Pinball can't even make anything new. They've got all their old games in boxes nobody wants. They don't have any magic, even though they have Houdini. They don't have any magic that answers what the market is pricing these games at. And Cuphead's not going to be that. I just want to go on a little bit of a tangent, everybody. Cuphead is going to be a flop. nobody I know is gonna make room in their game room for Cuphead and now it has so much bad press like you know this game was developed during a period in which the leadership over there was like maybe one of the worst leaderships in all of pinball and that's gonna be indicative of what the product is you really think that Ryan McQuaid over there is gonna drop a Keith Elwin-like Iron Maiden experience with Cuphead and just everybody theme is important and again it's not a theme that's going to move and when are you going to release it when's a good time to release Cuphead when you got Harry Potter you've got freaking uh what else we got King Kong we've got Barrels of Fun which they might be making G.I. Joe okay let's go down this road right now, right? Will there be a GI Joe game from freaking barrels of fun? And the reason why Jason now put up this story, we've been thinking about what's next from barrels. It's clearly not going to be dune pinball. Here's the biggest thing that Jason missed in his story. Brian Savage, who's the co-creator of barrels of fun pinball. Brian Savage has spent like 25 years of his career as the head of the G.I. Joe like fan club and he did all these G.I. Joe conventions and transformer conventions this guy is the guy when it comes to like 80s G.I. Joe and transformers and so if he's the co-founder of this company it is a really good guess that G.I. Joe pinball from barrels of fun might be in the cards and if they make a gi joe pinball machine yo joe in a year in which america's back baby i think it would do so well for this demographic i think a lot of us he man back to the future transformers thundercats like you just make any of those nostalgic 80s cartoons. Now you got to do it right. Don't do it wrong like Ninja Turtles, where you make the game too hard and you don't use the iconic 80s or 90s cartoons. You make new versions of them. That is stupid. If they make G.I. Joe pinball, I want to see the G.I. Joe cartoons I grew up with in the game itself I love GI Joe It fun Transformers G1 It fun Thundercats fun He fun That the other rumor is that like American Pinball is like we might release the next two games and the other game was always rumored to be He-Man. But again, if they make He-Man, it's gonna be bad. We know this. We know this. What have they done? What have they done? Like what designer have they hired? What move have they made that makes you think American pinball has got a magical game ready to go that's going to be successful in this pinball market? It's going to get very competitive very quickly. And I have been watching a lot of other content. If you like cars or watches, everybody's having this conversation now. It's like after COVID, all these grown men, that have put an inordinate amount of money into other toys. You know, if you have a lot of money, you can collect cars. I feel like car collections are men who have a lot more money than pinball collectors. Now, there's some very wealthy pinball collectors, and you're out there, you know who you are. You could also be into cars. You might be into both. Watch collectors are very similar. It's easier to get into watch collecting than it is even pins or cars because guess how small the watch is? and there's hundreds of watch companies. Now in pinball, the reason I love it, the reason you love it, it's not hard to understand everything happening in pinball. You know, sometimes we say, well, there's a lot of companies making pins. Yeah, there's like 13. If you go in the auto world or the watch world or the wine world, there's hundreds of companies. There's thousands of products being pumped out into the world, but everyone's having the same discussion in 2025. we are all waking up to a sober reality that prices have gone nuts, that a lot of stuff now is depreciating at a level that you just can't ignore. And so there's only one way, really, there really is only one way to create something in pinball that is like recession proof or depreciation proof. And that is you make a magical game. You make a magical game based on a theme people want and you make the game so much fun that when you buy it, you're never going to think about selling it. To me, that's the supernal realm of pinball. That's when you reach magical status. That is the realm of masterpiece. I don't even care, right? I don't care what it costs. I don't care about what I paid for it because I know I'm never going to sell it. Now, what's interesting about pinball than these like three to four hundred pound toys we have to lug around our houses is I think we're all at the stage now where we're getting a little bit tired of that constant rotation. Because if you were one of those people that really enjoyed rotating games in and out of your game room, you got hammered over the last three to four years. You just got hammered. If you bought stuff brand new in a box, you got hammered. Now, the smart people, and you know who you are, Wes Bentley, the smart people out there, they don't buy new in box when they do rotations. They want to enjoy the best pinball has to offer. And the last thing they would do is chase the FOMO and pay full retail for a game. I was just talking to my friend, Wes. He got a Guns N' Roses collector's edition for $9,000. Like, think about that for a minute. That is $6,000 cheaper than Avatar. And Guns N' Roses is a much better pin than Avatar. The reason I know that, Jersey Jack will struggle to sell 1,500 avatars. There's a reason why they probably sold 6,500 Guns N' Roses machines. So if you want to experience a lot of pinball magic, you don't need to fall victim to the new in box market. Because I think the new in box market, as we go on, is the worst market to engage with. If you don't need to have it right now, why would you rush after these things brand new? They're all going to pop up for sale. Look how many Metallica remastered LEs are for sale right now. And they only made 500. And it just goes to show. I think for some weird reason, over the last few years, these manufacturers thought the market for pinball was bigger than it really is. It's not. It hasn't grown nearly as much as they think. And do you know something crazy? And this is like, I've never heard anybody say this, but Stern Pinball initially, when they were thinking where they could take their brand within the pinball market, within the global demand for their product, Stern Pinball initially wanted to make 1,500 LEs before they settled on 1,000. See, this is the problem. There not 1 people in the world that are going to spend on your pinball machine And if they actually did do that and they tested that market the games would not have sold out And then you would have had 1 potential people Let's just say they did sell out. And 1,500 people spent $13,000 on your game. And then those games sink down well below 10 grand. I think they would sink all the way down to $8,000 because there's 1,500 of them in the world. And then you've basically handed 1,500 people a $5,000 loss because they bought your product. And you think that's sustainable. So we'll see what happens, everybody, because King Kong, I have high hopes that King Kong is gonna bring big magic to pinball. It's also gonna bring a big price increase. I heard Stern is gonna add $600 to the price of the game. So we're looking at $13,600 if they make a King Kong topper. We're now in that really scary territory where a Stern machine fully loaded is aiming closer to 15 grand than 10 grand. We've gone in the wrong direction. And again, it's like I think there's a lot of you out there that are like, I don't even care how magical these games are, Kaneda. They've just gone bonkers. But what keeps me optimistic, what keeps me excited about pinball is this. those 13 companies they know they need the magic or their games are going to be doa if the market prices are this high guess who's going to benefit you and i because the days of mediocre themes are over the days of charging a lot of money for empty games are over there's a reason why cgc is going to bring back Medieval Madness like any week now because they know they're going to sell every single one. Look how much more is in Medieval Madness than a $15,000 Avatar, right? Look at that game. There's like one mech in freaking Medieval Madness is more impressive than all the mechs combined in Avatar. And so magic, right? It's like if you've got something magical and that's why Stern Pinball, trust me when I say this, Stern Pinball is going to remake everything that they know is their magic. There's going to be remakes of Walking Dead, Ghostbusters, Tron, of course they're going to remake all this stuff and they found that loophole. Anything that was made during the D&D period can come back in a new LE form and they don't care. You think they care about torpedoing guys that have had those games for 10 years. I think the statue of limitations on getting out of those games is over. So if you have like a Metallica LE, the original one, the days of you getting $16,000 are over. Have you watched these delusional guys? They're trying to get like $16,000 for their Master of Puppets LE. I don't care that you powder-coated the armor. Yeah, that game would have sold for 16K like four months ago, but now it's like a 10 to $12,000 game at most. But I love watching a good pinball delusion. I love it. I mean, you go in the pin side marketplace and there's still dudes trying to sell Godfather CE for 15 grand in a box. There's still like those distributors who just are reluctant to price the damn thing where it needs to be. How much do you think you need to price a Godfather CE new in box? It was 15,000 new. What do you think actually gets money on the table? I think it's going to have to be like 10. I mean it like 10 new in box because you can get open ones for cheaper because again, then the only value is that damn box and anything over $10,000, you're just paying for the cardboard. So I'm excited because the themes are going to have to be magical. Are we going to get Sonic the Hedgehog? I hope Stern Pinball makes Super Mario Brothers. I would rather have Super Mario Brothers and so would you over Pokemon. So that's a rumored theme. We also know Stern is going to come out with more music pins. Are we going to get Journey? Do you want Journey? I love Journey music. I just don't want a Journey pinball machine. What about Motley Crue? We're hearing rumors about the Beastie Boys and Jersey Jack has the Beastie Boys license. Now, I could see Steve Ritchie doing Beastie Boys. Here's the thing, everybody. Steve Ritchie is not going to do Matrix or Top Gun. I don't think it's happening. And the reason why is both of those licenses come with nothing. You can't make a Top Gun pinball machine without Tom Antonio Cruz. So the two rumored games that I think are the front runners is that Steve Ritchie is doing Sonic the Hedgehog. Yes, I love that. Or he's doing Beastie Boys. Both of them are great. Both of them are great for pinball. I mean, Sonic the Hedgehog as a video game character, he is a freaking pinball flying around his world doing the loop-de-loops, the jumps, the springs. They freaking pop bumpers all throughout this sonic world and Steve Ritchie is the king of flow and speed So I think it a perfect marriage Beastie Boys high energy music I mean freaking A you could just put the Beastie Boys into the Elton John game and it would make Elton John that much better. After that, we don't really have a lot more rumors with Jersey Jack, but man, this is it, right? Back to the futures. Come in sometime before you die. It's not going to happen anytime this year. I'm worried about back to the future. My friends over at Dutch Pinball know that I'm worried. I think they need to ink a deal. I don't think it's going to happen. I don't think we're going to see a Keith Elwin back to the future. I think Barry's going to want to do it himself and it's fine. We'll see what he comes up with. I don't know what they're going to do when they actually get orders for this game and they can only make 10 a week and he's going to be making this thing for eight years. But man, that's where we're at. It's a lot. And I know these games cost a lot of money. It's at the point now where if you want to buy just two of the top of the line games from Stern and Jersey Jack, it's scary to say that you are now dropping $28,000 before taxes, before shipping on two pinball machines, $28,000. I mean, it's just, it's nuts people. That's a, that's a few Rolexes. It's a car. It's a lot more, you know, is it bringing you that much fun? I mean, it's weird to me to say that. You used to be able to go get two Stern LEs for like 12 grand and now it's $28,000 and the games are not that much better. The games are not that much better. They're definitely not bringing that much more fun. I mean, I got a Lord of the Rings for seven grand. Nothing that's new is better than that game. Nothing. And they want twice as much. Everybody, I can't wait to see what's next. I think the next release we're going to get is Barrels of Fun. I think Potter is going to be after Barrels of Fun. So here's the order that could happen. We could get Barrels of Fun, G.I. Joe. Then we get Harry Potter. Then we get King Kong. Then I think we're going to get Walking Dead Remake. Then we're going to get Medieval Madness. I forgot that. Medieval Madness is probably going to come out probably even before Harry Potter. So G.I. Joe, Medieval Madness. I'm trying to get the order right live, which is hard. We're going to get G.I. Joe, Medieval Madness, Harry Potter, King Kong, Walking Dead remake. Another game by John Borg. Maybe it's Journey. Who knows what comes out after like the Walking Dead remake. Then we're going to get at the end of the year. We're also going to get Beetlejuice from Spooky Pinball, Pedretti Gaming somewhere in the mix. Maybe they've got Predator. We've got Totem coming back as well. What else is out there in the pinball world? Who am I missing? Jerry's going to bring out Portal from Multimorphic, right? You add all this up, hundreds of thousands of dollars of new product, new pinball machine, thousands of new games. If the magic is not there, these games are going to die instantly in the market if the magic isn't there. Everybody, this is a good time to be a buyer who is patient. Don't rush in. Only fools rush in, people. All of these games, when you add it all up, there's just going to be so much available. And just wait. Be patient. jump on all these games make sure the magic is there don't buy a game right away like x-men and then wonder if the code's gonna get better and that's the other thing too at these prices there's no room anymore to release a game that's not finished people are not gonna wait forever now to see if the magic arrives right you want my money right away then you better prove to me right away. The magic is there. Happy President's Day, people. Kaneda out. In a world that must be strong All those white dreams are made of love And in the end All the reasons we will defend Cause that's what love is made of you