The Calm Before the Storm (Merry Christmas)

Cary Hardy·video·17m 54s·analyzed·Dec 25, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.031

TL;DR

Pre-holiday industry update: major Q1 releases coming, American Pinball uncertain, Stern D&D incoming.

Summary

Cary Hardy provides an industry update covering Q1 2025 announcements and manufacturer status across Barrels of Fun, Turner Pinball, American Pinball, Dutch Pinball, Spooky Pinball, Jersey Jack Pinball, and Stern Pinball. Key highlights include American Pinball's uncertain future amid layoffs and expected Cuphead release in late February/early March, Stern's upcoming Dungeons & Dragons cornerstone title announcement expected December 27-31, Dutch Pinball's Alice game ramping up production in mid-January, and Spooky's strong momentum with Evil Dead. Cary also discusses Jersey Jack's aggressive social media advertising, the collapse of Avatar hype post-Expo, and Stern's vault strategy for select titles.

Key Claims

American Pinball's Cuphead is physically done but still working on code, anticipated for late February/early March release at Texas Pinball Festival
medium confidence · Cary received information 'through the grapevine' from multiple sources about Cuphead's development status
American Pinball has experienced layoffs and David Fix conveyed a sense of defeat in recent podcast appearance
high confidence · Cary directly referenced the Loser Kid Pinball podcast episode with David Fix and described the final five minutes as showing 'a feeling of defeat'
Dutch Pinball/DPX plans to begin building Alice in mid-January 2025
high confidence · Cary received direct message from Melvin confirming mid-January build start date, with official update planned for next week
Stern Pinball will announce Dungeons & Dragons cornerstone title with teaser on December 27th and full reveal December 30-31st or early January
high confidence · Cary states 'The information that was told to me is that we should be getting the teaser on the 27th' and received invitation to play at Stern factory during CES
Jersey Jack Pinball finally completed Pirates of the Caribbean code after six years of development
high confidence · Cary states 'they finally finished pirates of the caribbean code' as recent news item
Jersey Jack Pinball is buying substantial sponsored ad space on Facebook, more than any other manufacturer
high confidence · Cary observes 'Jersey Jack Pinball? They are buying ad space like crazy' and notes not seeing other manufacturers doing this
Avatar hype collapsed dramatically after Pinball Expo, with buyers already selling CE spots to prepare for Harry Potter
medium confidence · Cary observes low discussion on Facebook threads and social media compared to other games like X-Men and Ninja Eclipse
Spooky Pinball's Evil Dead is their best game to date and will be the benchmark for future releases

Notable Quotes

“it's kind of like the calm before the storm it's not a lot going on in the industry in the pinball hobby but that's all about to change as we reach the end of this year”
Cary Hardy@ 0:47 — Sets the framing for the entire video—acknowledging Q1 2025 will be a major release period
“towards the end, those last five or so minutes was almost a little bit like a feeling of defeat. And it really got me wondering about American Pinball, David Fix in general... who knows? Anything could happen.”
Cary Hardy@ 3:09 — Expresses concern about American Pinball's viability and customer confidence based on David Fix's recent podcast appearance
“if the customer believes that the company that's building this product may not be around next year do you think they're going to want to buy their game knowing that there's a possibility that there will not be parts available or customer service”
Cary Hardy@ 3:58 — Articulates the business risk that staff layoffs and leadership uncertainty creates for American Pinball's sales
“from what I'm being told, and I'm hoping it's wrong information, guys, but from what I'm being told, is that the pro for this next game is the way to go. supposedly the best value is going to be the pro model for dungeons and dragons”
Cary Hardy@ 13:40 — Suggests potential pricing/tier concerns with Stern's D&D cornerstone, echoing broader industry pricing criticism
“Jersey Jack Pinball? They are buying ad space like crazy, like it's just going out of style. I don't see any other manufacturer buying social media ad space.”
Cary Hardy@ 9:57 — Observes aggressive JJP marketing spending and strategic differentiation from competitors

Entities

Cary Hardyperson David Fixperson American Pinballcompany Barrels of FuncompanyDavid OverslootpersonTurner PinballcompanyChris (Turner Pinball)personDutch Pinball/DPXcompany

Signals

?
announcement: Stern Pinball Dungeons & Dragons cornerstone title announcement imminent with teaser December 27 and full reveal December 30-31 or early January
high · Cary received specific information: 'The information that was told to me is that we should be getting the teaser on the 27th' with full trailer following
?
business_signal: Stern Pinball vault strategy driven by license cost vs. demand analysis; removing titles from production to narrow consumer choice and reduce stock replenishment burden
high · Seth Davis explained on Loser Kid podcast: 'they don't need to keep a production line going to replenish stock' due to 'diminished' demand
?
business_signal: American Pinball experiencing staff layoffs and leadership uncertainty, creating customer confidence issues regarding future support and parts availability
high · Cary references David Fix podcast appearance showing 'feeling of defeat' and notes 'when you have things like that where they're bleeding employees, it really does make you wonder what the hell is going on'
~
sentiment_shift: Spooky Pinball Evil Dead established as new competitive benchmark; multiple Project Pinball Raffle appearances and sustained social media hype indicate exceptional market reception
high · Cary states 'this is their best yet, and every game after this will be compared to Evil Dead' with three raffle appearances confirming ongoing demand
?
licensing_signal: Jersey Jack Pinball completed Pirates of the Caribbean code after six-year development cycle, providing timeline precedent for other long-gestating projects

Topics

Q1 2025 Release PipelineprimaryAmerican Pinball Business Viability and LeadershipprimaryStern Pinball Dungeons & Dragons Cornerstone AnnouncementprimarySpooky Pinball Evil Dead Reception and Market MomentumprimaryJersey Jack Pinball Avatar Hype Decline and Marketing StrategyprimaryManufacturer Production Status and Shipping TimelinessecondaryStern Vault Strategy and License Re-uppingsecondaryContent Creator Factory Access and Transparencymentioned

Sentiment

mixed(0.55)— Generally positive outlook on industry momentum and Q1 release pipeline, but concern about American Pinball viability tempers enthusiasm. Cary expresses optimism about Spooky, Turner, and Dutch Pinball execution, but worry about consolidation risk and customer confidence issues. Tone is analytical and measured rather than celebratory.

Transcript

youtube_groq_whisper · $0.054

What's up guys? Merry Christmas. I'm hoping that you are enjoying the holiday. And if you're watching this, then I'm already gone. To work. I should probably have put those words together a little faster, but yes, I will be working on Christmas Day. It is what it is. But I got it all planned out to where I should still be able to watch my kids open the gifts. and so we should be good on that front but i wanted to create this video i didn't i don't need to i could literally just go to bed right now do the whole christmas thing and just be done with it but i i wanted to put something together to just you know do something as a lot of you know i haven't put out a video in a good couple of weeks now and this is merely because it's kind of like the calm before the storm it's not a lot going on in the industry in the pinball hobby but that's all about to change as we reach the end of this year and we're going to start in first quarter and we got a lot of stuff about to hit close to and around the same time and I've just got a lot of bullet points here I've reached out to some of the manufacturers or people that work there as well as some rumors and we're going to go through a little bit of that I don't plan on this being a really long video but let's just dive right in so some of these are going to be pretty quick so let's just go ahead and hit with barrels of fun as of right now they're still making their labyrinths and uh no complaints that people are enjoying the game people are enjoying the quality of the game they're getting i have been in touch with david over there about doing a tour of the facility we have just not been able to line up our schedules hopefully maybe even next month i will be able to make it down there so stay tuned for that turner pinball they are building games and they are getting them shipped out honestly they're getting them shipped out so quickly that they better be on a whitewood for their next game at this point in time i want to say they're about 20 maybe even 25 through their uh 100 games because i mean i told them when I was there I was like you need to keep posting on social media every time you ship the games out per week or whenever you send a bunch of games out let people see that you're doing it that keep the momentum going and Chris has been doing that so by all means keep it up Chris I'm looking forward to seeing what you're going to do next so now let's go into American Pinball And there's been a lot of news, speculation, rumors, and everything that have been stirring up. And we had the most recent podcast with David Fix on there on Kevin Loza Kid. They had a lot of really good questions and a lot of you that watched it. I shared it because I felt that this was the most candid that David Fix has been with a podcast in particular. And maybe a little too candid in my opinion. Because towards the end, those last five or so minutes was almost a little bit like a feeling of defeat. And it really got me wondering about American Pinball, David Fix in general. I mean, so it kind of makes me wonder where American Pinball is at and what their future is going to be like. because it still kind of seems like, even from David Fix's own mouth, that who knows? Anything could happen. And with that, it doesn't give the buyers very much confidence in the upcoming products that they will release or the current ones that are available to purchase. if the customer believes that the company that's building this product may not be around next year do you think they're going to want to buy their game knowing that there's a possibility that there will not be parts available or customer service and i i've been meaning to reach out to you david if you watching this i sure you are i have your number yes but it like every time I about to call you something comes up we will we connect eventually We get there Now it the holidays and I don want to talk shop with you on the holidays I going to let you enjoy your holiday But post Christmas, expect a call from me and I mainly just want to ask you what the F is going on. But anyways, from what I can tell you and because this has not been direct information from me, but mainly through the grapevine to me, it looks like their next game, Cuphead, will be their best game since Houdini. That's my opinion on basically what their best game was, was Houdini. I really enjoyed that game. From what I've been told, this looks like it's supposed to be their best game since then. So there is that. the game is physically done but they're still working on code and we can possibly see this game i would anticipate this game being it's not going to be a pinball at the beach so i would say late february early march we should definitely be able to play this game at texas pinball festival if American Pinball is still around. That's basically the current status and what's going on with American Pinball. I mean, in case you haven't heard also in the interview, there have been layoffs. And so when you have things like that where they're bleeding employees, it really does make you wonder what the hell is going on. Dutch Pinball or DPX, I got a message from Melvin today. Basically, there will be an official update on social media next week, but I can tell you that basically majority of the parts, if not all the parts, have been ordered or on order for Alice, and they're getting things ramped up in preparation to start build. They still at this time plan to begin building in mid-January. So, in a way, they're already going to be a little bit behind from what they stated. They did say January is when they would begin building. Not like January 1st, but they will be beginning building in January. But if you go by how many games they can build per week in a year, holidays and all of that, I don't know if they're going to get all 500 done in the year of 2025. But they keep moving the games out, getting them, and everybody's enjoying it. The build quality is there. I'm sure those that are still waiting on their game towards the end of 2025, won't mind waiting a little bit longer. Now let's talk about Spooky Pinball. They have gone up when it comes to reputation and just interest in general with their latest title of Evil Dead. This game, from telling you about it, what I could tell you about it before the game released, they obviously nailed theme integration with it. And it's on par for what Spooky does when it comes to theme integration. But I think this one in particular, like I stated, this was like their best game yet. I'm going to try not to stop using the whole it's their Godzilla thing. But I would say that this is their best yet, and every game after this will be compared to Evil Dead. They have had their game on Project Pinball Raffle three times now. so that also says basically the demand for this and the game is still selling to to this day then then like the basically the thread for it the hype thread is still going strong people are loving what they're seeing talking about what they're gonna be putting to the game of the future that we've had corwin do a stream on it within the last couple of weeks and i'm hoping to be able to play this game in a couple of weeks myself that is part of what i will be going over here pretty soon is that i do have plans to visit spooky pinball and so i'll be able to get my hands on evil dead jersey jack pinball so is it just me or did like avatar the interest and the hype fall so fast ever since Expo. And that the funny thing is that Expo not a lot of people were really talking about the game either It not like they were talking bad about it Not like oh it a horrible game or it doesn shoot very well It's just like people would play it, but they weren't, you know, discussing it, waiting in line and all of that. That wasn't going on. People were talking about other games like X-Men and Ninja Eclipse and Alice, but you didn't hear a lot of Avatar. and that still kind of goes to this day on Facebook on the threads not a lot of people are hyped or excited about Avatar and you would think that the CEs the people buying those will be getting all hyped on it but it looks like people are already selling their spots to basically prepare for their next title which is Harry Potter which we should be seeing in February and And I don't know if this is just me also, but I want to ask you guys, have you been noticing on Facebook, if you're on Facebook, that there is a lot of sponsored ads by Jersey Jack Pinball? They are buying ad space like crazy, like it's just going out of style. I don't see any other manufacturer buying social media ad space. It's always Jersey Jack. Ads galore. It's always like sponsored by or ad. It's always Jersey Jack. So they're buying up a lot of ad space for sure. So it's and there's the whole XP program that they're trying to do with the FBCs. We'll see how that goes. They're reaching to a different, you know, demographic. I don't know a lot of FBCs, at least around me, that are willing to spend 100 grand plus on that kind of stuff. But I don't know. It may be a hit. admit it most likely won't be and uh they finally finished pirates of the caribbean code so that's something to give them a little bit of a nod to but it took them six years which is a little ridiculous i don't even know if there's a good like how do you go well this is why i don't think it should take six years to complete a code but if any other game isn't complete by jersey jack that kind of gives you a timeline and a little bit of hope that maybe they will finish it may take six years but they'll get there so let's finish this up with the big dog stern pinball now they have not basically done any kind of teaser or release for their upcoming cornerstone but i do have information in regards to their upcoming title which we should be seeing a teaser on in the next couple of days. The information that was told to me is that we should be getting the teaser on the 27th. Now, what the teaser is more than likely going to be is their typical more audio kind of thing and then it's going to show the Dungeons and Dragons logo and then Stern Pinball and the date of when the full reveal is going to be which I would assume would be the oncoming Monday or Tuesday, which would be... Where's my mouse at? I would say the 30th or 31st, we would probably get the full trailer of the game. And then the week after that is going to be CES. And that's when they're also going to have people coming to the factory to play this game. And I'll just go ahead and say it. It's not like I've been told I can't say it. I have been invited to Stern to play their next Cornerstone title. I was on the cusp if I could even go. And I was like, I'm going to make it work. But I'm literally going down there, or up there rather, and coming back, and then I've got to work the next day kind of thing. So I can't stick around for a great deal of time when I do go up there and the trip is being paid for by my patrons. So it's not any kind of like, you know, Stern's not paying for my trip or anything like that. So it going to remain unbiased on my thoughts and opinions on the game Now when it comes to my thoughts and opinions in the game I do have a couple of other little tidbits that have been told to me and take all of this with a grain of salt because it's merely information that's been passed through the grapevine, but from what I'm being told, and I'm hoping it's wrong information, guys, but from what I'm being told, is that the pro for this next game is the way to go. supposedly the best value is going to be the pro model for dungeons and dragons like i said i'm not going to be like oh i was right or i was wrong no this is just information that was passed along to me that's heard it from someone who heard it from someone whatever i'm not going to relay my sources but all i know is that i hope that isn't the i hope that isn't true but I do like it that the pro is basically the preference. It's kind of grown with me even with X-Men is that I kind of prefer the pro now because you still get all the shots. You're just not getting the fancy little fingers. Seems a little weird to say it that way, but I just like the idea that you're not missing any shots. You're getting all of that. You're just not getting the extra mechs that move and do a little extra stuff there but i digress but we will be seeing this title at pinball at the beach and we will get spooky's evil dead we will not be seeing cuphead because they're not the game's not ready yet and barrels of fun we're not going to be seeing that game at pinball at the beach but hopefully before tpf maybe i don't know but as i said in the of the video this currently is the calm before the storm things are about to pick back up guys new year new president new games a lot is in the air and it's I'm along for the ride to see how the cards fall this should be interesting oh and I almost forgot about Stern vaulting these particular titles and And this was discussed in the Kevin Loza Kid Pinball podcast with Seth Davis just recently. People were questioning why these titles. And it's just simple. Look, the licenses come up, then they have to be repurchased or re-upped. More money out of their pocket. And they're not going to re-up a license if the demand isn't there. The distro has talked to Stern every week and definitely every month to discuss sales, demand, all that jazz. and they allocated all their data together and they came up with these particular titles where the demand has diminished enough to where they don't need to keep a production line going to replenish stock. So it's just simple math of just like demand isn't there for these titles at the current time and there's no sense of re-upping a license. And they also want to kind of like dwindle down the available stock and current modern like live row of games that they have available they want to like narrow down people's choices when they go visit a distributor basically too many options can sometimes be overwhelming so they kind of want to narrow it down limit people's choices that was something that Seth mentioned also so we'll see how that goes so I've got no problems with these games being vaulted it doesn't mean that they're not going to make them anymore it means they're just like you know what we're putting them away we're not going to make them and we'll revisit here in a couple of years to see if demand has gone up to enough to where we should re-up the license and start pumping some more of the games out but again guys i wish you a merry christmas and i will be hopefully doing another video before the end of the year like i said if we get especially teases for upcoming titles then obviously we're going to have something to talk about but of all the things that i have listed here what has you most excited what game piques your interest the most what factory do you think is doing the best at this current point in time let me know in the comment section down below and i will see you in the next video guys peace out