Episode 848: "The Pinball Trade Wars Begin"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·21m 17s·analyzed·Sep 19, 2023

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.033

TL;DR

Kaneda attacks JJP credibility, Stern's Venom pricing failure, and industry censorship of critical media.

Summary

Kaneda delivers a scathing critique of the pinball industry's market dysfunction, focusing on Jersey Jack's reliability issues and false marketing claims, Stern's aggressive pricing strategy with Venom LE, distributor panic as inventory stagnates, and the broader market collapse driven by excessive pricing and FOMO tactics. He also condemns Pinball Expo for allegedly banning critical media voices at manufacturers' request, positioning his podcast as the lone voice holding the industry accountable.

Key Claims

Jersey Jack Guns N' Roses machines are selling used for $7,500–$8,000 despite $11,500 new MSRP
high confidence · Kaneda, direct market observation
Jack Guarneri claimed in a September 2023 interview that Jersey Jack games don't break down, which Kaneda says contradicts documented playfield and component failures across multiple titles
high confidence · Kaneda referencing Jack's interview statements vs. community history
Stern Venom LE is priced higher than Tron LE was during its five-year peak demand, yet Venom LEs are sitting unsold in distributor warehouses
high confidence · Kaneda, market observation
Multiple distributors are struggling with inventory while others report record sales; Kaneda suspects selective truth-telling
medium confidence · Kaneda speculating on distributor honesty
Pinball Expo cancelled a planned media/content creator panel discussion after manufacturers threatened not to attend if critical media was present
medium confidence · Kaneda reporting unconfirmed third-party account
Kaneda was banned from Pinball Expo last year without direct explanation
high confidence · Kaneda personal experience
For the first time ever, a raffle winner (James Bond LE) didn't want the prize and backed out
medium confidence · Kaneda reporting anecdote from raffle experience
New in-box games (James Bond LE, Foo Fighters LE, Godfather CE, Scooby-Doo, Toy Story 4) are available at or below MSRP with ~25+ LEs listed on Pinside at any time
high confidence · Kaneda, market observation
Distributors are increasingly accepting trade-ins to move new inventory, then struggling to sell those used games at fair market value
high confidence · Kaneda analyzing distributor behavior

Notable Quotes

“Jack, you are selling Guns N' Roses new for what, $11,500? They are everywhere for $8,000. $7,500 is coming real soon.”
Kaneda @ early segment — Core market dysfunction: JJP new machines already trading at 30-35% discount despite premium positioning
“Nobody other than pinball people that have bought Jersey Jack games in the past. Nobody other than people that have had Guns N' Roses playfields that have fallen apart, Willy Wonka playfields that fell apart.”
Kaneda @ opening — Establishes documented pattern of JJP reliability issues across multiple titles
“Some pinball manufacturers said they were not comfortable going to the show if those pinball media showed up at Pinball Expo. This really boils my blood people. Do you think that people who cover the auto industry are not invited to an auto show?”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Allegation of censorship and industry control over media access at major events
“You gotta play a Jersey Jack Machine 6000 times to break even with a guy that starts off with a Stern Pro. Jersey Jack Machines are not operator friendly.”
Kaneda @ operator segment — JJP economics incompatible with commercial operators; design philosophy mismatch
“Why would you bite on any of these used games when you know you're right around the corner from a year in which we're going to see two Keith Elwin pins not one but two Keith Elwin cornerstone machines?”
Kaneda @ speculative section — Future game anticipation suppressing current used market demand
“For seven years, Canadian Pinball Podcast has been number one. And it's not because I'm toxic... The reason why I'm number one is I'm calling it like I see it and I have no agenda and I get no kickbacks.”
Kaneda @ late segment — Kaneda's self-positioning as independent voice vs. industry shills
“The last year of games Foo Fighters was a really great inaugural effort by Jack Danger... Everything else that happened last year was an absolute dud to me.”
Kaneda — Assessment of 2023 game releases; only JJP Foo Fighters deemed quality

Entities

Kanedaperson Jersey Jack PinballcompanyJack GuarneripersonStern PinballcompanyJack DangerpersonSteve RichiepersonChris and Melissaperson

Signals

?
product_concern: Jersey Jack games exhibit recurring playfield and component failures across Guns N' Roses, Willy Wonka, Pirates of the Caribbean (playfield chipping), Wizard of Oz (light board issues), and Godfather CE (lockdown bar/side armor defects)
high · Kaneda details documented history of failures across multiple JJP titles; replacement parts required
$
market_signal: Premium LE pricing strategy backfiring: Stern Venom LE sitting unsold in warehouse; Guns N' Roses used sales at 30-35% discount to new MSRP within 2+ years; new in-box games (James Bond, Foo Fighters, Godfather, Scooby-Doo, Toy Story) available at/below MSRP with 25+ copies on Pinside
high · Kaneda's market observations; distributor inventory stagnation; price slashing of $500-$2,000 on used machines
~
sentiment_shift: Community shift from FOMO-driven early adoption to wait-and-see strategy; players observing saved money ($2,000+) by waiting months rather than buying at launch; raffle winner (James Bond LE) refused prize for first time
high · Kaneda reporting behavioral changes; raffle anecdote; audience increasingly listening to wait-it-out advice
?
industry_signal: Distributors anxious and sweating as they absorb inventory risk; conflicting reports of sales (some claim record sales, others report tight times); trade-in model becoming necessity to move new in-box inventory; distributors dependent on customer resales to free up capital
high · Kaneda's distributor conversations; analysis of trade-in necessity; inventory stagnation across manufacturers
?
product_strategy: Stern overpriced Venom LE above Tron LE's five-year peak demand pricing, then produced 1,000 units at $13,000 MSRP with expectations of sustained LE premium; strategy collapsed as games sit unsold

Topics

Jersey Jack Pinball reliability and quality controlprimaryDistributor inventory crisis and secondary market collapseprimaryLE pricing strategy and FOMO marketing dysfunctionprimaryIndustry censorship of critical media at trade showsprimaryTrade-in market dynamics and used game pricingsecondaryOperator vs. home collector game design philosophy mismatchsecondaryKaneda's positioning as independent voice vs. captured mediasecondaryKeith Elwin upcoming releases and FOMO suppressionmentioned

Sentiment

neutral(0)

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.064

Just gonna stand there and hear me cry That's alright because I love the way you lie I love the way you lie yourself and your others with min IF. Nobody other than pinball people that have bought Jersey Jack games in the past. Nobody other than people that have had Guns N' Roses playfields that have fallen apart, Willy Wonka playfields that fell apart. We had playfields chipping with Pirates of the Caribbean. There have been light board issues with Wizard of Oz, now Godfather CE. They now have to send everybody replacement lockdown bars and maybe side armor. You know, Jack himself knows all too well the sheer number of issues that Jersey Jack games have experienced. and then he's gonna get up there on an interview in September of 2023 and say that his games don't break down, that you can't find Guns N' Roses used for sale, that if you do find one for sale they haven't lost much money. Jack, you are selling Guns N' Roses new for what, $11,500? They are everywhere for $8,000. $7,500 is coming real soon. And look, I'm not asking Jack to say stuff that's disparaging towards his company, but when you The Outright Line to the pinball community because it's just not true and it's not Canada with an agenda I own a Jersey Jack machine. I'm really rooting for Steve Ritchie's game I think my favorite part of the interview yesterday is when they asked Steve Ritchie. What do you think of Toy Story? Do you hear the hesitation? He's like, ah, well, it's fun Clearly Steve Ritchie does not love Pat Lawler Hurry sanate at the Simple, true context and close corner of The next game is a hit that it's great that it's a lot of fun but we've heard jack say that about godfather we've heard jack say that about toy Story 4 I remember before toy story 4 came out jack went over to one of my really good friends and said you're gonna absolutely want to buy the next two games from my company this is after this guy just bought guns and roses and was super excited and then you drop on him toy story 4 and the godfather the other thing that's weird about the pinball market right now and the title of my show is the great pinball trade-in is what's the We've got some distributors saying sales are better than ever before. I'm talking to other distributors that are large distributors that are telling me, hey Chris, times are pretty tight right now. Games are not flying off the shelf. So who's telling the truth and who is spinning things? And I don't understand why you would spin something. The truth is this people. We all know that venom is not selling very well. The game just came out. I mean it just came out. It is rolling off the line like this He instructors At infectious Alibaba You price every game there. Remember, Venom LE people is priced way more expensive than Tron LE was selling for for like five years when that was the most in demand new in box game that was in the world when I got into the world of pinball. So now you've made a thousand Venom LEs that are the same exact game as Venom Premium and you make a thousand of them and they're $13,000 on day one and you're telling everybody this game is worth $13,000 and guess what's happening? They are just sitting. they're gonna sit in boxes at distributor underside Destributors hafta be panicking a little bit right now because they're waiting for the Keith Elwin game. But here's what I'm noticing is happening a lot more in pinball. There's still pinball deals going on, but a lot of them seem to be trade ins, cuz here's what I think is happening. And again, this is just me speculating and I'm allowed to speculate. So don't come at me with all of your threats saying what I'm doing is illegal because I know this ain't illegal. Trust me, people, a lot of people should be thankful. I'm not airing stuff that's happening behind the scenes and what people are BE Captain The great Greek philosopher Plato no one is more hated than he who speaks the truth okay And I got a lot of people that don like me but I gonna keep doing this podcast They not gonna stop it I don care I would love for my haters to go through New York City and have a few drinks and lighten up a little bit. They're so uptight. Alright, so here's what I wanna talk about. I'm seeing a lot of people trade in pinball machines to get some of these new games, but here's the problem in that. So let's say you're a distributor, and you've bought all of these Godfathers, and you have toy stories sitting in a box and you've got all these venoms you have to order if you want to get your Keith Elwin allocation. And here's the problem. You've got a lot of customers that were used to freeing up capital and freeing up their money by selling old games to get the new games. But here's what's happening right now. People aren't moving on those old games. People don't want a lot of these older titles, especially at these new prices that are so high. And so these distributors are anxious. They need to move out that new in box inventory. And now that there's no longer all of these people with free cash floating around because they're not able to sell their used games, here's what's happening. Distributors are saying, alright, I gotta get rid of this new in box toy story or this new in box Godfather or these new in box Venoms. I will take one of your old games as payment towards this new in box game. So that solves one problem for the Distributor right they got to get rid of this new in box inventory so they can have money to buy the newer games coming out right because unless Distributors are buying all of these new in box games Who are the customers that are going to absorb right all of those games that are coming off the line at Stern pinball at? American pinball at Jersey Jack pinball at Dutch pinball at home pin at the pinball brothers at haggis pinball I mean the list goes on and on think about it. You've got basically 12 pinball companies out there in the world right now and the most of them have relied on distributors to absorb their content, absorb all the risks. All the money goes from distributor to manufacturer then from customer to distributor. And now we're in this new period where more and more people are doing what Kinead has been saying and they're waiting it out. They're just seeing where the market goes and that's making a lot of distributors very nervous and very anxious. It's not me who did it. It's the manufacturers who got super greedy and price these games at super high prices. It's also the fault of the content creators that were just telling you to buy everything in sight regardless of price. And it hasn't worked out. And people are feeling that now. Like if you ran in right away and you bought Toy Story and you ran in and you bought Godfather, you ran in and you bought Scooby-Doo, you know, you just lost a few thousand dollars and you could have got the same exact game if you just waited a few months. Not a few years, people, a few months. And that's the thing. And that's why with so much at Sp슷in, we are going to see more and more distributors needing to do something to free up their inventory and so we're seeing a lot of tradings but here's the problem with the trading so a distributor takes your used game let's say I trade in a toy story le on an order for a venom premium alright so now the distributor is in possession of a toy story le and he sends you a venom premium so that distributors not really making money yet there's not a lot of profit happening there they're just simply exchanging goods now what the The distributor now has to do is sell that used game. And that's what I'm seeing happening more and more and more is more and more of these distributors are taking these trade-ins to get rid of the new in box inventory they can't get rid of, but then they're sitting on these used games. And then it comes down to them to price those games fairly at the right market value or those games are not going to move. And until those trade-in games move, that distributor hasn't really made any money. Betaciones Hersующadeinishadaption, leaned resistor Squ��qu τη, In the end of this video, we'll go over a few of the things that are going to keep this entire thing going year after year after year and we're seeing it softening already. When distributors are slashing used game prices by $2000, 1000 off here, 2000 here, 500 off here, what is happening? Either they're pricing it well above the market value or there's just nobody biting on these games and I think the big issue is this. Why would you bite on any of these used games for like Why would you do that when you know you right around the corner from a year in which we going to see two Keith Elwin pins not one but two Keith Elwin cornerstone machines And the more and more people are witnessing how much money people are saving if they just wait it out the more and more people are going to start listening to Kineada The more and more I going to start getting more threats from people out there in the world who are threatened by what I saying right now And I don really care Like people can come at me and I still friends with really big distributors I mean they are friends of mine Chris and Melissa at coin taker They are personal friends So is Joe Newhart over at pinball star Mike is really great at automated Those are my three people If you ever having a problem getting a pinball machine if you ever have struggles finding one just come to me and I will do everything I can to help you get one And that even The end of the video, I will be getting a link to the video that I will be going to, and I will be sharing it with you. The link will be in the description and I will be sharing it with you. Mike has been so great at automating whenever there has been a Stern LE I have been able to raffle it off. Now what happened last year was crazy. For the first time ever the raffle winner didn't even want the game. We had James Bond LEs and he didn't even want it. He backed out of winning the raffle. And once I started to see stuff like that, you know, and then Foo Fighter came out and we were all excited, but then what happened, right? What happened after Foo Fighter LE, right? A month or two later, after all the Foo Fighter LEs were made, the prices didn't go up. We started to see there was always about like 25 LEs for sale on pin side at any time, right around or below MSRP. And that has never happened before. The sheer number of new in box games that are still available All of the above are available on the game, including the Galactic Tank Force LE, Godfather LE NCE, Scooby Doo, Toy Story 4, and many more. They are all available at MSRP or below, and everybody knows you can get any single game you want right now for less money if you just wait. This is not a message that manufacturers and distributors want you to hear because they want you to live off of the FOMO. You know, I heard a little bit of an upsetting story today. There was supposed to be a panel discussion by Pinball Media and Pinball Content Creators at PinballExpo. Okay? There was supposed to be a panel discussion at the show itself. And the festival was going to pay for travel and hook up these people. And no, it was not me. It was not Canadian Pinball Podcast. It was going to be a seminar panel discussion about what it's like to be pinball media and creating content in a world like this. Covering the industry, calling companies out when they do stuff, making parody videos. It was going to be a really good seminar. And then all of a sudden, Pinball Expo stops corresponding with said pinball content creators. All of a sudden, the Pinball Expo schedule comes out and that panel discussion is no longer on the schedule. And you know what happened? Some pinball manufacturers said they were not comfortable going to the show if those pinball media showed up at Pinball Expo. This really boils my blood people. Do you think that people who cover the auto industry are not invited to an auto show because a manufacturer has the power to keep the media out of the Jacob Javits Center here in New York City? Do you really want to live in a world in which manufacturers and distributors can complain to a show organizer and keep pinball media that are speaking the truth away from an event? I think it's un-American. I think it goes against freedom of speech. And I'm sorry, but anytime a pinball company is made fun of or dragged through the mud, let me tell you something. It's usually because that pinball company did something to warrant that kind of content. and I really do take offense to this because I think there's too many shills in this hobby. There's too many people that can just go to these show organizers and try to get you canceled or banned from the show or revoke your permission to show up and hang out with your fans. And I was banned from Pinball Expo last year. When I tried to get an answer about why I was banned, I didn't get any direct answer. I got some statements which I tried to verify and then people said that was not true. But I'll tell you this, I never publicly aired what I want to be clear to each and every one of you. We live in a world now where people want to cancel you immediately. We live in a world now where people want you to say what they want you to hear. We are buying very expensive pinball machines. These machines and these companies will never improve. They'll never get better. We'll never get more for our money if every single person in the pinball content space is in bed with these manufacturers. And the reason why I did myatas帶 Copy, Trip certainly once does you hometown and the best part is that you can play with a Star Wars license and then a Godfather LE for You gotta play a Jersey Jack Machine 6000 times to break even with a guy that starts off with a Stern Pro Jersey Jack Machines are not operator friendly I understand that Toy Story did fine on location because it was a sales flop for homeowners And even when you hear Steve Ritchie talk he like well I want to make a game that makes money What are you doing Steve You not making games for operators These guys are so delusional They have their heads in the clouds At to you are no longer a freaking operator machine Wake up guys Stop thinking you making your games for operators The game is not 1994 anymore brothers wake up at this much money the only people buying these machines are OCD home collectors it's not Jack Bar I go into Jack Bar there's no Godfather there he's got a toy story there sure because it's a good earner you know why it's a good earner because the game doesn't break down because there's nothing in it but the very reason why it's good for operators is because of that it doesn't break down there's nothing in it and it's got a theme people recognize but that's the exact same reason corny deconstnoc tempted��need CFI neighbor Turfs Fongrent drifting Tanzafant from Carthago, Canada branch of Robinson The only time they do roll out the red carpet at the awards show, the only dude walking down it to get the damn trophy for favorite pinball podcast is this show. In lieu of everybody else claiming they're the self-proclaimed favorite show and this and that the best pinball podcast, I've heard that for freaking seven years now. And for seven years, Canadian Pinball Podcast has been number one. And it's not because I'm toxic and it's not because I throw drinks in people's faces or tell people to keep their wives The reason why I'm number one is all that other drama is meaningless. The stuff that really matters is I'm calling it like I see it and I have no agenda and I get no kickbacks. I'm part of a very small group of people that's actually looking out for the customer. You know, if I was like doing a rap album and I was giving a shout out to other people that are keeping it real, it's Bruce over at Slam Tilt Podcast. Go listen to their latest podcast. Go listen to Bruce's take on the pinball market. adversity within pinball conductive asking argumentаго I just put it up on my Facebook page. I'm seeing two magnets in upper playfield. It's got scoops. It's got maybe a subway system. It's got multiple scoops. It's got multiple bucks. I'm super excited about this game. What I know you want to hear and what I want to hear you hear is me excited again about pinball. The truth is the last year of games Foo Fighters was a really great inaugural effort by Jack Danger. Foo Fighters is an amazing shooting pin. Whether or not it's worth $13,000 for an LE is debatable. But at least Jack Danger showed us he's a great designer. So I'm excited to see what Jack does next. Everything else that happened last year was an absolute dud to me. Absolute dud because nothing else happened other than Foo Fighters. What happened in the entire year of pinball? Nothing exciting. Pulp Fiction's not going to come out anytime soon. You really think you're going to see it? How many times are people going to think CGC is going to deliver on time? They haven't delivered on time since the company began. And so we had another year of pinball with a You have 11 companies and only one game is good? Only one game? And then you've got all these like hundreds and thousands of used games looking for new homes. You wonder why distributors are starting to sweat. They're starting to sweat because people are starting to listen more and more to Canada because the real influence in pinball is happening here and you're a part of it ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for being a club member and if you have friends that are not part of this show, it's time. Giddy up people. 5 bucks. No one's crushing it like this. Later. Fans tournaments jacket Andy on yeah the on God who isos fertilizer tava lightly