This Month's Pinball Market Jan 2025 | Stern's Spike 2

LoserKid Pinball Podcast·podcast_episode·9m 54s·analyzed·Jan 1, 2025

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.026

TL;DR

Stern Vault program halts production on key titles; Spike 2 market down 9.8% but select games show strong appreciation.

Summary

LoserKid analyzes the used pinball market for January 2025, focusing on Stern's new Vault program that will halt production on major titles (Iron Maiden, Elvira, Star Wars) for two years, creating scarcity and expected value appreciation. Market analysis reveals Spike 2 machines down 9.8% overall, with early releases (John Wick, Venom) seeing steepest depreciation, while select games like Aerosmith Premium (up 15% YoY, +52% from launch) and Munsters LE (up 29% from launch) show strong appreciation. The broader market sees 70 new used listings daily, positioning it as a buyer's market.

Key Claims

Stern announced a new Vault program that will stop producing vaulted games (Iron Maiden, Elvira, Star Wars) for at least two years
high confidence · Direct announcement discussion; presenter treats as confirmed news from Stern
Overall Stern Spike 2 machines have depreciated 9.8% from end of 2023 to end of 2024
high confidence · Presenter cites specific market analysis data; quantified metric
Deadpool LE machines have appreciated 40% from launch and currently sell around $12,500
medium confidence · Presenter states as market observation; specific price point provided but sourcing of data not detailed
Bond 60th Anniversary has dropped 20% over the past year and 35% overall since release, trending downward
medium confidence · Presenter cites from market analysis; quantified depreciation
Aerosmith Premium models are up 15% from last year and +52% from original $6,500 launch MSRP, now selling around $12K
medium confidence · Presenter cites specific market data; Premium model at $6,500 launch is notable finding
Jersey Jack Pinball market is up 10% overall but down 13% if Pirates of the Caribbean is excluded from analysis
medium confidence · Presenter's market analysis showing Pirates of the Caribbean creates 23-point swing in JJP aggregate valuation

Notable Quotes

“These games they announced are more than likely going to go up in value over the market over time.”
LoserKid podcast host @ early segment — Core thesis on Vault program's market impact and scarcity-driven appreciation
“If you bought a Deadpool LE at launch, it is up 40% from when it launched. They're selling around $12,500 right now.”
LoserKid podcast host @ Spike 2 discussion — Demonstrates case study of games vaulted appreciating significantly post-announcement
“the worst game right now, the game you don't want to own is Bond 60th. It was sold at $20K when it first came out... it has dropped 20% of its value... down 35%.”
LoserKid podcast host @ worst performers section — Identifies largest depreciation case; explains why certain licensed games are failing
“Pinball is only worth what someone's willing to pay.”
LoserKid podcast host @ closing statement — Philosophical frame for entire market analysis; reinforces subjective valuation in secondary market
“When it comes to the used market is these games they announced are more than likely going to go up in value over the market over time.”
LoserKid podcast host @ Vault program discussion — Direct articulation of scarcity-driven value proposition for vaulted titles

Entities

LoserKid Pinball PodcastorganizationStern PinballcompanyFlippin' Out PinballcompanySilver Ball SwagcompanyPinball PricescompanyPinsideorganizationJersey Jack Pinball (JJP)companyBond 60th AnniversaryproductDeadpool LEproductAerosmith Premiumproduct

Signals

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business_signal: Stern implementing Vault program across multiple major IP (Star Wars, Elvira, Iron Maiden) suggests company-wide strategy shift to manage production capacity and scarcity perception
high · Presenter treats announcement as new official Stern policy affecting multiple flagship titles simultaneously
?
competitive_signal: Presenter notes Aerosmith Premium launch timing relative to media day speculation in May 2024 about side cabinet art, suggesting Stern was market-testing aesthetic elements to gauge collector reception
medium · Quote: 'When the media day happened last May and we were speculating about the Aerosmith side cabinet art... Stern knows what they're doing. They're trying to see what's going on with the market.'
$
market_signal: Used market showing 70+ new listings daily indicates significant supply of used inventory; characterized as 'buyer's market' with plenty of deals available
high · Presenter states 'Roughly there are 70 games being added to Pinside or other markets daily, so it's still a buyer's market'
$
market_signal: Music-licensed Spike 2 games (Aerosmith Premium, Beatles Gold) showing stronger value retention and appreciation than other licensed IPs, suggesting music IP licensing may be more durable than film/TV properties
medium · Aerosmith Premium up 52% from $6,500 launch (now $12K); Beatles Gold up 3% YoY despite -15% from launch; contrasts sharply with Bond and Elvira 40th depreciation
$
market_signal: Jersey Jack Pinball aggregated metrics heavily skewed by single outlier (Pirates of the Caribbean); removing Pirates swings market from +10% to -13%, indicating significant concentration risk and data anomalies in smaller manufacturer cohorts

Topics

Secondary market valuation and depreciation trendsprimaryStern Vault program and production halts impacting scarcity/valueprimarySpike 2 platform performance and segmentation by release cohortprimaryLicensed game underperformance (Bond, Elvira)secondaryJersey Jack market anomalies and Pirates of the Caribbean outlier effectsecondaryEarly adopter vs later buyer depreciation patternssecondaryMusic-licensed games as value retainers (Aerosmith, Beatles, Metallica implied)mentionedMarket segmentation and data analytics methodologymentioned

Sentiment

neutral(0.5)— Presenter maintains analytical, data-driven tone without strong emotional judgment. Descriptive language ('shocked me,' 'threw me for a loop') expresses surprise at data patterns rather than positive/negative outlook. Vault program framed as potentially 'brilliant' or uncertain. Overall market characterized as 'buyer's market' (positive for purchasers) but with softening JJP and Spike 2 trends (negative for collectors holding inventory).

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.030

My blazer's back. I've got my notes. This is this month's pinball market. Alrighty, so I didn't realize how segmented the pinball market is when it comes to the used market. I'm trying to do my own analytics of the used market and I decided it's best to segment this because there's just so much information. I want to give a shout-out to Pinball Prices. They did a great job. I want to give a shout-out to Pinside. I also want to give a shout-out to our sponsor, Flip N Out Pinball, Zach and Nicole Menne. We've got new games on the horizon. Dungeons & Dragons was just announced, so if you're looking for that game, hit up Zach and Nicole Menne. They'll give you the best deal. Also, Silver Ball Swag. You like the shirt that I'm wearing? The Goat, Keith Elwin. Check it out, silverballswag.com slash loserkid. We've got plenty of products there, and new swag is on the way. All right, let's just jump into some of the facts that's going on right now as we speak. CERN just announced their new vault program. No, that means they're not going to be doing the old vaults that they brought back. That means they're taking games and putting them in a vault, so that way we can't – they were not going to be making them anymore at this point for at least two years. What this means to you in the used market is these games they announced are more than likely going to go up in value over the market over time. these are amazing games like iron maiden elvira star wars and after i get to some of these numbers you're going to be a little baffled like why are they doing this but it's stern it might be a brilliant move it may not we'll see what happens so i want to go on record with that roughly there are 70 games being added to pin side or other markets daily so there's it's still a buyer's market we're seeing plenty of great deals pop up right now like i said the market's very segmented at this point. It's kind of weird. Let's talk Spike 2. Stern Spike 2, I've got the numbers right here. Going over from the end of 2023 to the end of 2024, overall percentage-wise, Stern Spike 2s are down 9.8%. It's showing as early as a game release, they dip in value. If you want to get the most bang for your buck, it seems like getting these early games, but used So you know your John wicks your venoms that stuff right now those are seeing the biggest dip right now But as time goes on as they stop producing these games those numbers tend to go up over time And what I say by that is like looking at like Deadpool. I know that Deadpool is one of the games that just announced that they're not going to be making anymore. But if you bought a Deadpool LE at launch, it is up 40% from when it launched. That's right. They're selling around 12.5 right now. you got to kind of look at his investment looking at these notes it's pretty much read up until rush pro then once we start getting past that like stranger things we see a trend of of up with a couple different anomalies there's a couple games i'm going to point out so the three that have done the worst over the span of five years so i've done in the last five years because when we get to ballet williams i'm not going to compare to games that were released back in 92 because inflation rate was entirely different. They sold at a different rate. And so it's hard to look at that. So I'm going for pre-COVID, which was the end of 2019 to now. I think that gives us a good idea because the pinball market was still on an up trajectory for the previous decade of that. So honestly, the worst game right now, the game you don't want to own is Bond 60th. Granted, this game was sold at 20K when it first came out. And it was one of those kind of like subject to what the dealer wants to do, right? Right now, over the last year, it has dropped 20% of its value. And in the whole scheme of things since it's released, because it's been less than five years, we're down 35%. This is a game that it's only trending down. So I don't know if you want to touch it. And then the next one that is trending down as well is Bond LE, which is kind of a, I don't know if it's the game that people are loving this game. The code came out, it's doing great, right? So Bond LE over the past year has dropped 15% in the grand scheme of things. It is down 28% since its release. And the last one, this one kind of threw me for a loop, Elvira 40th. This game originally released at about 25k over last year, 32% down, and overall 35 down All right you know I know you want to know the numbers of the games that you want to buy the ones that are seeing up growth right So as I going through this this is going to kind of shock you So my third best right now Munsters LE. If you bought this game when it first came out at eight grand, granted, you know, that's 5,000 less what they are now. If you bought this at eight grand, you today would be sitting around 11.6. That means it's up 29% from when it released. It still is down 19% from last year, but you're still up if you're at that point. Looking at games that are still going up in value, Beatles Gold, just this last year, it's went up 3%. It is down 15% from when it originally released. So what that tells me is we're still seeing growth in this pinball machine. It may be down from when you originally bought it. So if you bought this out the gate, you might be a little trouble. But if you bought it in the last year, you're still, you're still good. You're probably not going to lose value. You're probably gonna trade straight across your value on that one, right? This is one of the games they just announced a star works comic pro it's up 10% from last year and, and it's still flat across from when it released. So that means we're still seeing growth in this one. You're still good to go on that one. The one that really shocked me, this game, if you own it right now, it might be time to sell because overall the market's trending down, right? We're seeing that over this past year, as I look at it, we're down 10% on spikes. On JJP, we're down 10%. And Valley Williams aren't as bad. They look like they're down about 3%. I have to adjust some of those numbers. Guys, I have been trying to adjust these numbers and go through them. There's a lot to digest here. I won't even have market deals this time because there's just a wealth of information I've been digging into. But let's get back to the spike twos. The game that shocks me, Aerosmith Premium. Aerosmith Premium. It is up 15% from last year. So it is now, people are selling this around 12K. It's up 15%. And if you bought this when it originally came out at $6,500, imagine this, a premium for $6,500, you would be up 52% of your investment. So Aerosmith premium Aerosmiths aren't bad as they seem to be retaining their value. So when, when, uh, the media day happened last May and we were speculating well there Aerosmith side cabinet arts and stuff on the ground I mean Stern knows what they doing They they trying see what going on with the market So okay Those are your six games So three bad three good. For Spike 2, like I said, we're going to be going over the numbers over these next months. I'm going to try to focus on per category. So this month I want to do Spike 2 by Stern, especially with the release of Dungeons and Dragons on the horizon. And I just think it gives us a good indicator where the modern market is going, but it gives us an idea. Stern has such a long history, right? We're 25 years at this point. So they give us a good idea of what's happened with the market over the last 25 years and where the market is going. I do want to give this a, this little tidbit because I did Jersey Jack numbers and overall they're up 10% in value. if you leave Pirates of the Caribbean in those numbers. But if you take Pirates of the Caribbean out, it drops to negative 13% on your investment. So some of these numbers have very big anomalies. And it's amazing that Pirates of the Caribbean can give it a 23-point swing. That is insane. So again, I want to thank you all for tuning in. This was a smash hit. I'm excited to see where these other numbers go. So hopefully that gets you going for the next month of where you want to buy. Looking at spikes, spike twos, looking at JJPs. Maybe that's not it. Honestly, Valley wins are looking really great right now. And there is one on that list that has absolutely shocked me. But that is for next time. If you want to check us out, if you want to hit us up at Loser Kid Pinball on all of our socials, Loser Kid Pinball podcast at gmail.com. If you want to send us an email, hit us a comment, hit us a like, hit us a subscribe. I read all the comments, so I try to reply to them. unless you say something really random and wild that I have no clue how to respond to. It is what it is. I want to thank the over 13,000 people that tuned in just on YouTube to our content. Thanks for the support. We appreciate all you do. Like I said, Silver Ball Swag, get some of this stuff. Also, flipping out Pinball, get that Dungeons and Dragons. Is Harry Potter on the way? Don't know. Better hit up and get on that list. And for my final words, just remember, Pinball is only worth what someone's willing to pay. Thank you.