Episode 805: "Kaneda's Collector Corner"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·34m 30s·analyzed·May 24, 2023

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.034

TL;DR

Kaneda analyzes remake strategy, collector behavior, and secondary market pricing in pinball.

Summary

Kaneda discusses pinball remakes of classic Bally/Williams titles, arguing that most collectors prioritize aesthetic appeal and playfield mechanics over code depth since many players never reach wizard modes. He introduces a new segment, "Kaneda's Collector's Corner," analyzing overpriced machines on the secondary market, critiquing inflated valuations of limited editions and customized games. Key topics include Jersey Jack Pinball's slow sales momentum with Godfather and Toy Story, Harry Potter licensing rumors, the quality challenges of 2.0 kits, and Chicago Gaming Company's manufacturing excellence tempered by production delays.

Key Claims

Most collectors suck at pinball and never reach wizard modes, so they don't need deep code—they want the aesthetic and mechanical experience
high confidence · Kaneda, primary thesis throughout episode, stated multiple times with emphasis
Jersey Jack Pinball has lost momentum; Godfather and Toy Story combined will not sell as well as Guns N' Roses
high confidence · Kaneda, stated as direct assertion about JJP sales trajectory
Stern Pinball missed the Harry Potter license because Joe Kamikow submitted their bid one day late to Warner Brothers; Jersey Jack secured it instead
low confidence · Kaneda, explicitly states skepticism: 'I don't believe the story... There is no way that Stern Pinball... was going to get one of the biggest licenses in the world and fell asleep at the wheel'
Chicago Gaming Company makes the best pinball cabinets and playfields but takes forever to manufacture
high confidence · Kaneda, repeated praise balanced with criticism of production timelines
2.0 kits are doing a disservice to classic games and won't drive sales of the base machines
high confidence · Kaneda, stated as opinion/prediction about retrofit market impact
Toy Story games are selling so poorly that Australian distributors are selling Ellie versions at a loss
medium confidence · Kaneda, stated as direct observation of distributor behavior
Jersey Jack Pinball's cool factor was tied exclusively to Guns N' Roses; it erased when Guns N' Roses playfields started failing
medium confidence · Kaneda, opinion on company reputation tied to specific title and Jack Guarnari's response to quality issues
Customized/personalized pinball machines never recover their modification costs in resale, no matter how much work is invested
high confidence · Kaneda, stated as market principle illustrated with Lord of the Rings example

Notable Quotes

“Most people that buy pinball machines suck at pinball... We buy pinball machines because it's a magical world under glass. Because the pinball machine is a three-dimensional diorama that we can put in our house that lights up, that has like fun toys.”
Kaneda @ ~mid-episode — Core thesis explaining collector motivation and why code depth is less important than aesthetics/mechanics
“I don't think being Alien number one is worth $18,000... I think if you walk up to an alien, whether it's number one or number 429 or number 007, I don't really think it matters.”
Kaneda @ ~collector's corner segment — Challenges rarity-based valuation; argues game number significance is overrated
“There just aren't many new in box games right now that people want that are brand new... If you want a new pinball experience, you've got Foo Fighters, you've got The Godfather, and you've got Galactic Tank Force.”
Kaneda @ ~Godfather discussion — Market assessment of limited new game options; positions Godfather as slow-burn release
“The hardest part about this game is simply this. There's nowhere for most of us to hop on one and play it. Operators are not putting this game on location.”
Kaneda @ ~Godfather analysis — Identifies operator adoption as key blocker for Godfather consumer interest
“If the theme is forgettable, don't even bother making the game... I would love to hear why anyone should get into pinball who cannot make a game better than a Stern pro.”
Kaneda @ ~new manufacturer criticism — Direct challenge to new entrants; frames competitive bar as Stern Pro-level minimum
“I don't think we've seen the bottom of GNR CE prices yet. I think with so many LEs now trading close to high $7,000 range, it's hard to argue that a CE is worth twice the price as an LE.”
Kaneda @ ~collector's corner, Guns N' Roses — Prediction of further GNR CE depreciation; signals market correction underway
“Why did they even make a game that can be played if you're never gonna play it? Am I being judgmental? Yes. Are people who live like this OCD wealthy? Yes, they are. But I think that's sad.”

Entities

Kanedaperson Jersey Jack Pinballcompany Chicago Gaming CompanycompanyStern PinballcompanyJack GuarnaripersonJoe KamikowpersonSteve RichiepersonEric Menierperson

Signals

~
sentiment_shift: Jersey Jack Pinball's brand perception has shifted from cool/aspirational (Guns N' Roses era) to struggling/momentum-challenged post-playfield failures and Toy Story poor sales
high · Kaneda states JJP 'lost mojo,' playfield failures blamed on owners by Jack Guarnari erased cool factor, Godfather/Toy Story sales far below GNR benchmark
$
market_signal: Limited Edition machines experiencing price deflation as supply increases; GNR CE prices predicted to fall further; distributor cost basis ($15k wholesale) signals inflated secondary market asks
high · GNR CE at $15k viewed as overpriced; Godzilla 1000 units predicted to decline; Elvira 40th secondary asks $22.9k vs $15k distributor cost
?
manufacturing_signal: CGC faces chronic production delays despite superior quality; Cactus Canyon LE production timelines questioned; potential expansion of manufacturing partners being explored
high · Kaneda states CGC 'takes them forever' despite amazing product; Planetary Pinball possibly exploring other manufacturers for scale
?
product_strategy: Remake releases positioned as easier sell than new IP due to built-in demand and collector familiarity; new manufacturer challenge is exceeding Stern Pro baseline
high · Kaneda argues remakes will sell themselves without needing 2.0 kits; new French manufacturer criticized for forgettable theme and inferior execution to Stern baseline
?
community_signal: Shift in collector understanding: recognizing most buyers never reach wizard modes; code quality viewed as secondary to aesthetic/mechanical appeal for majority of market

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.103

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I get the same old dreams, same time every night, fall to the ground and I wake up. So I get out of bed, put on my shoes and in my head, thoughts slide back to the break up. Sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up. Welcome everybody to the world's most biased pinball podcaster. That's right, if you give me your money, I'm only going to say nice things about you. Welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. It's a new week. I was watching Killian this morning with a magic marker and a big crayon and I said to myself, there is no way I can actually unbox any of these rare machines I have as long as Killian is running around the damn apartment with a magic marker. How do you keep a two-year-old kid from destroying a $25,000 Batman SLE? On this episode of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, I want to talk about remakes. I want to talk about these Bally Williams games. Do we need remakes of the John Papadiuk classics? How well will they sell? What will they price them at? These 2.0 kits have been pretty terrible. I mean, if that's the approach, they're going to remake these games and then put these 2.0 kits that are pretty piss poor. That's not what we want. Everyone wanted Lyman Sheets to redo code on stuff like Cactus Canyon. So we're going to talk about remakes. I don't even think you need to do too much to the software. Just make a brand new version of these old classics and they will sell just fine. Because there's a dirty little secret in pinball that nobody wants to admit. That most collectors, are you waiting for it? We suck at pinball. We're not great at pinball. We're not getting to wizard modes. We're not putting 500 plays on a game in a single month. I love it when people are like, oh, the game's so shallow, the game's so shallow. And meanwhile, you see, and the only game for five years and they go to sell it and every for sale at is the same it's only got eighty six games on it really you had this metallica for five years and you put eighty six plays on the game and look I don't begrudge anybody who just wants to collect these things I think my friend Chad said it best these are simply movie posters that you can play and just go look at what people So, what can people spend on old classic movie posters and what's more fun, right? Owning an old Star Wars movie poster or owning a Star Wars pinball machine that you can play every single day? But for a lot of collectors, they just love to see the Ballywilliams mechanisms and the magic under the glass. They really don't need to have a totem that has like a super duper hard to get to wizard mode or auto plunges the ball when you're in the final wizard mode battling the genie. We'll talk a little bit about the remade As the CSOL This is the most important thing that people want to know on day one when you reveal your new pinball company to the world. If the theme is forgettable, don't even bother making the game. I saw this new company in France making pinball machines, right? You've seen the image of the game itself. It's got this cartoon image by the flippers of like a pinball cooler I'm going to be able to compete on artwork, we're not going to be able to compete on software, we're not going to be able to compete on mechanisms, so then why are you making a pinball machine? Can someone answer that question for me? KanedaPinball at gmail.com. I would love to hear why anyone should get into pinball who cannot make a game better than a Stern pro. I mean, that's just the way it goes. You know, and you could argue that maybe a spooky machine is not as good as a stern pro, but I would argue that Scooby-Doo gives you as much in a pinball going experience as a stern pro. I would argue CGC games do that. I would argue that Galactic Tank Force does that. And obviously Godfather is doing that for Jersey Jack Pinball. So let's go on to Godfather real quick. I've been in the thread. I've been reading people enjoying the game. My friend Derek has the game. He's enjoying the game. And as I predicted, I think this game is going to be a very, and I mean it, a very, very slow burn for Jersey Jack Pinball. There just aren't many new in box games right now that people want that are brand new. There's a lot of older Stern games that they're going to put on the line and sell to you. But if you want a brand new game, if you want a new pinball experience, you've got Foo Fighters, you've got The Godfather, and you've got Galactic Tank Force. Now, they're not really making many Galactic Tank Force games right now, but if you want to have a Godfather in your home this weekend, you most likely can have it. And I think Jersey Jack is going to find more and more customers with a slow burn approach to this game. The hardest part about this game is simply this. There's nowhere for most of us to hop on one and play it. Operators are not putting this game on location. And that's the biggest challenge. Because when you go to a pinball show and you try to play the Godfather, you're not going to walk away with a great experience simply because pinball shows This is Looks Like a Hex from certain chaisa야 Integr Great room S.Lเสsighs Sull, Weird

7:29

www. passartape.com Now, look, I haven't played the game. If you've played the godfather vient Can you own a Godfather? Can you do me a favor? Can you please articulate for Kaneda what are some of the magical wow moments you are experiencing in this game that makes me want to pull the trigger for $12,000 or $15,000? Thank you very much. And I would just love to hear it. I would love to hear from somebody. All right, so Godfather sales slow burn. Everyone is now looking forward to freaking Harry Potter, which is not going to come out until like 2025. If they did secure the license which it sounds like they did and I don believe the story Do you see the story that Joe Kamikow was working with Stern and they put in their bid too late with Warner Brothers and they like missed it by a day so Jersey Jack got the license That total BS There is no way that Stern Pinball the most professional pinball company in the world was going to get one of the biggest licenses in the world and fell asleep at the wheel There just no way that happened I don think that how it went down I don really care how it went down again because we not going to see this game for like three freaking years They most likely just secured the license So let count it We got Eric Menier next game which is on the line now It going to be New v-product for ST visive-équipe I try to finish the dates One. And at the rate at which Jersey Jack releases a game, which is roughly one game every 18 months, we're not going to see this game for a very long time. But hey, look, I love Top Gun, I love Akira, I love Fifth Element, I love Big Trouble in Little China, and I would be just as excited if I heard that Stern or Jersey Jack Pinball secured the license to one of my dream themes, right? If you love Harry Potter, this is great news. Like it doesn't matter how long it's going to take. You would have waited an eternity for a pinball company to make your dream theme. And look, I hope Jersey Jack knocks it out of the park. I keep saying this their next game. There's Steve Richie game is going to tell us everything about what direction this company is going in. They can't even give away Toy Story 4 is right now. They can't give them away. I mean there are distributors now in Australia selling the Ellie's for a loss ladies and gentlemen they are losing money on everyone they sell cuz they gotta get rid of them. Godfather's not gonna set any sales records. It's not gonna sell better than Guns N' Roses. Godfather and Toy Story combined will not sell as well as Guns N' Roses. And that's why the Steve Ritchie game is gonna be so important. I really hope Jersey Jack gets its mojo back. I don't think it really had mojo for very long. I think Jersey Jack only really had a cool factor with Guns N' Roses and then that cool factor got erased when the playfield started falling apart and Jack Guarnari told everybody that it's the owner's fault that their playfields were falling apart. The owner's fault! And they really haven't recovered since then. Like really, Jersey Jack Pinball hasn't really The game is not a theme people really want. Two games in a row, not really a theme people want or not integrated the way people want it. So this next game, if it's the Matrix, I'm hoping Steve Ritchie knocks it out of the park. Alright, let's talk quickly about these remake games. Tales of the Arabian Nights, Theater of Magic, maybe The Addams Family. What do we feel about these remakes? I'm just going to say this. It's really easy to think about these remakes. Of course they will sell, but manufacturing them has been the issue. Chicago Gaminging Company makes an amazing product. It takes them forever to make that amazing product. But if you have a manufacturer making your game, you're going to want it to be a company like CGC. No one makes a cabinet as well as they do. Nobody makes a playfield as well as they do. Nobody screws together a pinball machine as good as Chicago Gaming Company. But they have taken forever to make these Cactus Canyon LEs. And I think Planetary Pinball is not moving away from CGC, but they want to make more Why nearly 100 students have talked about the Internet. season更 하 olv Hmm I have a question I wonder if we have and they're gonna ask them hey how would you like to make a couple thousand machines this is my issue with these remakes is once you announce you're gonna make a remake of a classic game people are gonna want it and then my concern is that these companies can't crank these games out fast enough but playing devil's advocate I also think collectors will wait a really long time for a brand new version of a game they know is incredible a game they know is a How to play a pinball with a classic and having a brand new version of a classic game with all new playfield RGB LED lights, new sound systems in it, maybe a new topper, maybe new inner art blades. Let me tell you, when I brass plate at my Tales of the Arabian Nights, it is more stunning than any modern pinball machine. If you put a brass plate at Toten next to a Godfather, Toten blows it away. So I think the audience will be there. I think the I know that collectors will line up to buy these things, but I would be nervous that the quality would be there on the manufacturing on the assembly of the games if it was not made by Chicago Gaminging Company. I also think that the 2.0 kits are doing a disservice to these classic games. And let's be candid here people, these aren't just classics, these are considered to be like the Bally Williams games that are pretty much masterpieces. Namaskar I'm not a fan of the pinball game, but I'm just worried. I don't want to play Tales of the Arabian Nights with new code that sucks. If you can't make it better, don't even bother trying to make kits for these machines, because the kits are not going to sell you more games. Nobody is going to need a 2.0 kit to pull the trigger on any of these classic games. If you make them, people will buy them. They don't need anything else. And getting back to my original point, I think most collectors don't care. They're not getting to these deep wizard modes ever in any of these modern games. And I think sometimes people forget that most people that enjoy pinball actually suck at playing pinball. Let me repeat that. Most people that buy pinball machines suck at pinball. The reason why we suck is we can't walk up to any machine like these great league players and just blow up any game. That's one of the reasons why Toy Story sales were so bad is just average players were walking up to the machine and spending like a half hour on it. But for most of us, that's not why we buy pinball machines. Let's be honest. We buy pinball machines because it's a magical world under glass. Because the pinball machine is a three-dimensional diorama that we can put in our house that lights up, that has like fun toys. You turn it on and all the lights are going and the sounds are going and it's like a tiny amusement park for your house. I mean, that is why most collectors love these things. Each box is a tiny amusement park world under glass that you can play and every single game is different. It's not like you're memorizing Donkey Kong every single game you play. It's going to be a different experience than the game before and that's why pinball is awesome. And that's why we love it. And that's why some of us out there want to collect pinball machines. And speaking of collecting, are you ready? I never do this. A new segment for Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. We're going to call this Kaneda's Collector's Corner. And what I'm going to do, I'm going to see what games are available for sale that are I know what some of you are saying Well if someone loves the game who cares Well if that was the case it would be boring listening to all pinball podcasts because you don need to you just buy what you love and then tune everything out Alright let's kick off Kaneda's collector's corner with Alien Pinball from Highway Pinball Game Number 1. Home use only, documented Alien Number 001 for $18,000 or best offer. So here's the funny part. Andrew Highway sold his personal number one to the Pinball Brothers, one of the last games built after the acquisition. So do I think Alien number one is worth $18,000? So I don't think being Alien number one matters. I don't think being the first game off the line from a pinball company that failed, that gave a lot of people heartache is something I would invest in. I think if you walk up to an alien, whether it's number one or number 429 or number 007, I don't really think it matters. In fact, I just never feel like the first one off the line really matters that much. And also no other collectors really have game number one because usually game number one goes to the designer of the game. I think that's what they're going for here, right? Like this is a rare game. It was Andrew Highways personal game. But if I were you and you If you want to have an alien from Highway in your collection, I would just avoid this one and get one for a better price. The other thing is this. If I were going to collect alien, I actually would collect the one from Highway Pinball and not the one from the Pinball Brothers because I think down the road the original ones are going to be the more interesting ones to own. They have a better story. I like the bigger screen and I like the lit up cabinet artwork in the original Highway game. So that's just my opinion. If I were going to get an alien, I would try to get one of the ones from Highway Pinball. I don't know if this is possible. Can you take the Pinball Brothers game and can you put it inside the Highway cabinet with the bigger screen and the lit up cabinet? I'm not sure if the software would make that possible. All right, so there we go. $18,000. How about a game for $21,000? Medieval Madness Royal Edition. This is out of the box game, home use only. Now, this game originally sold for $10,000. I remember when they made the Royal Editions and it was easy to get one. It wasn't even hard to get one. I would not buy this game and I'll tell you why. It is easy to replicate the Royal Edition of Medieval Madness.

20:07

It also is not that much different than the other Medieval Madness games you could get. I think a Medieval Madness Royal Edition, if I were gonna like buy one, I think 15 to 16,000 at most. $21,000 just seems bonkers for a game, Especially when you can just make any other LE into a Royal Edition because they offer the topper and other things for sale separately. Here's a really interesting machine for sale. A 24 karat gold Balrog Edition Lord of the Rings machine. I'm looking at the pictures of this thing. It's interesting. They've absolutely changed the cabinet artwork on Lord of the Rings. They've changed the armor color, but it's weird. It's not gold. $14,950 for a very personalized and customized Lord of the Rings game. There is no way I would ever go near a game like this. When you highly customize your game and once you start changing the cabinet artwork and you change the armor color on how it came from the factory and you make it super personalized and then you charge $15,000 for it, you're never going to get your money back. I don't care how much work you put into it, if I were going to spend $15,000 on a Lord of the Rings game, I would find myself a Stern Pinball Limited Edition Lord of the Rings, which came with the beautiful real mirrored back glass. All you got to do is add the figurines to the game itself. You could get an LE in which they only made 400 of them. You could get it for less than $15,000. That's another interesting thing about collectible games. I don't care how much you personally modify your game. It is never going to be worth as much as stuff that comes from the factory when the factory stuff is rare. Yes, and that is why like the Royal Edition will always carry a premium over a regular Medieval Madness LE from Chicago Gaming Company. I don't think that Medieval Madness premium should be like $5,000 or $6,000 more. But who knows? Pinball is crazy now. Alright, here's a Guns N' Roses collector's Edition out of box number 197 with 51 total plays on it. 51? That doesn't make any sense. How do you buy Guns N' Roses and only play it 51 times? There are 22 songs in the game. That means you only played each song like 2 times, 2 and a half times and you're ready to get rid of the game? So do I think a GNR CE with 51 plays is worth $15,000? It kills me to say this but no. I don't think we've seen the bottom of GNRCE prices yet. I think with so many LEs now trading close to high $7,000 range, it's hard to argue that a CE is worth twice the price as an LE. And until Jersey Jack Pinball finishes the code rate Fundamental Fundamental www.foo fighters.le.com methodsσôby,mer прил How many of these are coming down in value? Godzilla LEs opened up, have always been around $15,000 to $16,000. New in box they were going for like $18,000-$19,000. Here's my prediction on Godzilla, again with 1,000 LEs, if you're a collector, just wait. These games are going to keep sinking down lower and lower, especially if two things happen. Keith Elwin makes a new game that people enjoy even more and it's based on a theme people at a Look, here comes a The theme is something like Back to the Future in which 5 people want an LE and snagging one of those thousand LEs was really hard to get Here an interesting one you will is worth three thousand dollars at least on today's market so that means they're selling a monsters le for fifteen thousand dollars actually don't like buying a new inbox game i don't like paying for the box because the moment you open up that new inbox monsters you just threw away a two to three thousand dollar cardboard box so if i were looking for a monsters le I'm going to be playing a game called Monster's with the topper. I would try to find one that's been opened up and pay closer to $14 to $15 for one. I don't think Monster's is a game I would collect unless I was a diehard Monster's fan because I still think the code is not where it should have been. And I think after Batman 66, the Monster's still feels like an incomplete game when you look at how much of the TV show made its way into the game and then you go play the Monster's and you're like, oh, I'm going to play the Monster's. I would much rather buy this game, a new in box Elvira's House of Horrors 40th anniversary. This is $22.9 or best offer. I think you could offer distributors $19 or $18 for new in box Elvira 40th. I'll tell you why. And information is power people. We all know that distributors paid Stern $15,000 for this game. So any penny over that, any penny over that is profit in the pocket of the distributor. And the majority of these new in box sale virus, they're being sold by distributors. So you go to a distributor and say, hey, look, man, I'm going to put 18,000 cash on the table. You're making $3,000 cash. Don't even report it. And we both get a win-win. I don't think you need to spend $23,000 to get a new in box Elvira 40th. There are a ton of Foo Fighters sitting at $14,500 or $14,900. Trust me, they're not selling at that price. Too high. Alright, let's end this segment with three more games that are going for high prices. So Ghostbusters LE for $15,500. One owner, less than 300 plays. I mean, I love descriptions of games, less than 300 plays. This game is six years old. I would put 300 plays on a Ghostbusters in one month. This is a six year old pin. The problem with saying how many plays the game has, everybody knows this. I believe when you update the code you can reset total games played. I'm not sure if that's changed on the new codes with Stern machines. So $15,500 for a Ghostbusters LE, do I think that's a good buy? There's only 400 of them. I gotta be honest, if there's a thousand Foo Fighters LEs and everyone's asking I think Ghostbusters LE for $15.5. Is that a good buy? I'm just a little too high for me. It's still a little too high for me. If it came with the topper for like 16.5, I might consider it. But 15.5, I wouldn't do it. I'll tell you why. Because something weird has happened with collecting Ghostbusters pinball machines. To really have the complete game, you need the damn topper. Stern didn't make many of them and people sell this damn topper for like four to five thousand dollars now. So if you have a Capt presidents John Papadiuk Keir vivac, Cliven Hayes,住 Levi F 출국imientos SirLei Farnwell Si jeweley Thibault weaknesses a nonchalant miriam I would have to wait until a machine with the topper came up for sale. Because we all know this people, if you've got 15-5 burning a hole in your pocket and you're a pinball collector, you can afford $20,000 for the Ecto-1 topper version. Let's end this on the final game. There are two Pirates of the Caribbean collector's The CE, only 200 ever made. Jersey Jack Pinball's second rarest collector's edition game. The number one rarest is dialed in. Pirates CE, 32,000 firm and then there's another one for $36,000. Here's my favorite part about the listing for this second CE for 36. Brand new, no games have been released. entitiesimplemented haviaишop creepje presentedia bland I bought the game, put it in his game room and has never played a single game on it. So there are no dimples, there's nothing. There's no pooling, there's nothing. I want to stand over that game and see absolutely no playfield wear whatsoever. Why even bother putting the balls in the game? Did he even turn it on? Why risk having an LED burn out? I mean it does make me sad. See, I don't really like this. I love a collector that buys high end stuff but bangs on the game. Like play the game. Don't buy a game and never play it. I don't feel like that's a fulfilling life at all. Why did they even make a game that can be played if you're never gonna play it? Am I being judgmental? Yes. Are people who live like this OCD wealthy? Yes, they are. But I think that's sad. Like I really do, I really want you, if you're gonna collect anything, whether it's watches or Pinball or Cars or bottles of wine, you eventually should freaking use it! Let me know what you guys think of Kaneda's Corner and me giving you my opinion on some of these really expensive collectible pins. I think it's fun to talk about some of these high-end games and see where people are pricing them at. Everybody, it's good to be back. As you can hear, I'm getting over a cold. I've had a really hard time sleeping. I haven't slept in 5 days but it's always fun making episodes of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast and we'll be back real soon with more shows talking about what's going on in pinball and trust me a lot is about to happen. These new companies are going to try to prove they can make it and there's going to be a lot of new games making their way to market over the next few months. I can't wait to cover it. Kaneda out.