Episode 884: "Who Will Wave The White Flag?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·23m 38s·analyzed·Dec 4, 2023

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.033

TL;DR

Kaneda warns pinball's pricing crisis will force a manufacturer to capitulate or face market collapse.

Summary

Kaneda argues that pinball manufacturers Stern and Jersey Jack Pinball have priced themselves into an unsustainable market collapse, with limited edition games losing thousands in value immediately after purchase. He calls for one manufacturer to 'wave the white flag' and reduce prices to 2019 levels, warning that the current pricing strategy combined with lackluster themes and mechanical innovation will destroy the market. He cites Jaws as a potential exception due to designer Keith Elwin reputation but predicts broader market correction is inevitable.

Key Claims

Guns and Roses Collector's Editions have dropped from ~$20,000 to $13,000 on the secondary market
high confidence · Kaneda citing current Pinside pricing trends
Jurassic Park 30th Anniversary LEs were $13,000 two weeks ago and are now selling for $11,000
high confidence · Kaneda observing secondary market prices
Multiple new Jurassic Park LEs are being listed at $11,000 (losing $2,000 instantly out of the box)
high confidence · Kaneda referencing 3-4 listings on Pinside
Stern LEs are now $13,000 without toppers, while toppers cost an additional $1,500-$2,000
high confidence · Kaneda's market analysis
Jersey Jack Pinball's last three titles (Back to the Future, Harry Potter, and Elton John) are not 'take my money now' themes
medium confidence · Kaneda's opinion on theme appeal
Jack (Jersey Jack Pinball owner) stated he does not believe they've hit the price ceiling when asked directly
high confidence · Kaneda referencing his Saturday interview with Jack
A distributor/dealer named Mike expressed hope (not confidence) that prices haven't peaked
high confidence · Kaneda quoting distributor response during recent interview
There are 12 pinball manufacturers currently operating and oversaturating the market
medium confidence · Kaneda's industry assessment
If Stern lowered prices to 2019 levels, they would 'destroy Jersey Jack Pinball overnight'
low confidence · Kaneda's speculation about competitive dynamics
Jaws LE will likely see initial FOMO-driven demand but will eventually drop below $13,000 by 2024
medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction based on market trends

Notable Quotes

“Stern and Jersey Jack Pinball are fighting a war in which they're both going to lose this battle.”
Kaneda @ ~4:30 — Core thesis: both manufacturers trapped in unsustainable pricing dynamic
“We will happily spend $10,500 on an LE. But if you're going to make a thousand of them, fine, but you can't charge much more than 10 grand.”
Kaneda @ ~5:00 — Explicit pricing recommendation to manufacturers
“I don't want to see my friends who love Jurassic Park, who now can get one and not spend $18,000.”
Kaneda @ ~6:00 — Emotional argument about community impact of pricing
“You're not going to sell a $12,000 Elton John if Guns N' Roses LEs are selling for $7,000. It's not going to work.”
Kaneda @ ~10:00 — Direct competitive pricing comparison showing Elton John value proposition failure
“If everybody's waiting and nobody's buying, then what happens to pinball real fast?”
Kaneda @ ~18:00 — Articulates death spiral scenario: waiting kills demand, kills manufacturers
“They were holding back their own inventory and scalping the community and then saying they were doing nothing wrong.”
Kaneda @ ~21:00 — Accusation of distributor malfeasance during COVID era
“Somebody's got to have the guts to put their Pride Pinball aside and realize that they will make more profit if they bring the prices back down.”
Kaneda @ ~27:00 — Core call-to-action: one manufacturer must break ranks
“I think if they want to move this game, I would say we're only going to make 2,000 Elton John machines.”
Kaneda @ ~32:00 — Specific strategic recommendation to JJP: cap production for exclusivity
“The reason why they're never going to do it now because they've sold thousands at these higher prices and then everybody who bought those inflated prices wouldn't buy again.”

Entities

Stern PinballcompanyJersey Jack Pinballcompany Kanedaperson Jackperson Keith Elwinperson MikepersonBrett Abbottperson

Signals

$
market_signal: Significant depreciation of newly released pinball LE machines immediately after purchase, with Jurassic Park 30th losing $2,000 in days and Guns N' Roses dropping from ~$20k to $13k
high · Multiple specific pricing examples cited from Pinside; Kaneda notes 3-4 separate Jurassic Park listings at $11k; Guns N' Roses CE decline documented
?
business_signal: Stern and Jersey Jack painted into corner by having sold thousands of units at inflated prices; unable to lower prices without alienating early buyers
high · Kaneda explicitly states: 'they've sold thousands at these higher prices and then everybody who bought those inflated prices wouldn't buy again'
?
product_concern: Jersey Jack's recent themes (Elton John, Back to the Future, Harry Potter) characterized as lacking strong collector demand compared to prior hits
medium · Kaneda: 'The last three titles they've made are not take my money now kinds of themes' and references Back to the Future/Harry Potter as contrast to past successes
~
sentiment_shift: Shift from immediate purchase behavior to 'wait and see' posture across collector base due to secondary market depreciation risk
high · Kaneda observes widespread waiting behavior; contrasts with COVID-era FOMO buying; cites incentive structure making waiting rational
?
competitive_signal: Boutique manufacturers (Pinball Brothers, others) positioning as lower-cost alternatives; quality gap narrowing yearly; potential to undercut Stern/JJP if quality reaches parity
medium · Kaneda: 'boutique companies still don't have the talent at the same level but they're catching up... eventually they're going to get there. And if they get there and the price is much lower...'

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.071

0:00

So say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say, say. Oh, happy Monday, everybody. Welcome to This Week in Pinball's Favorite Pinball Podcaster. I'm your host, Kaneda. Everybody, we had a great weekend. It was an anniversary with Brenda. We went to Automate It. We played Elton John. We gave a candid review to the world for free. And now we're back in the driver's seat, keeping it positive, just talking about what you want to hear about. And that's pinball, everybody. So let's talk about something I saw over the weekend. You know, look, Elton John is a beautiful machine. And as I said on my last show, my fear is this game won't make it into people's homes. It won't make it onto location, not because the game is not beautiful, not because the game is not fun. It's just a lot of money. And when I talk to people, they enjoy the machine. And then you're like, are you going to buy one? And they're like, no, I'm going to wait. And you know, what's going to make people wait even more, more than Jaws pinball, more than Pulp Fiction, more than maybe the Matrix, more than Back to the Future coming out at the end of next year. What's going to make everybody wait is there is a Guns and Roses LE that is now $7,000. there's a Jurassic Park 30th anniversary that just was like $13,000 two weeks ago and now they're all selling for $11,000 and when are these companies going to wake up and that's the point of this show is I think one of these pinball manufacturers somebody has to wave the white flag and take prices back to 2019. I'm not asking them to roll it back to like 2014. They just need to go back and find the sweet spot. And it's not where it's currently at. Stern and Jersey Jack are fighting a war in which they're both going to lose this battle. And Stern's got the volume. They've got the manufacturing capabilities. Jersey Jack's got the billionaire. And you know who's going to lose in all of this? We are because we're not the billionaires and we're not Stern Pinball making so much money because we all know they did not increase the bomb of these machines. And now they want us to spend 13K on an LE with no topper, no real accessories, right? It's like these games used to be 7,500 bucks. And all we're saying to you, Stern, is this. We will happily spend $10,500 on an LE. But if you're going to make a thousand of them, fine, but you can't charge much more than 10 grand. And now that all these games are 13,000, look what's happening to them all. Look what's happening to all these Jersey Jack games once they raised prices. So who's going to be the first company to actually admit that they maybe overpriced their own market. We've seen it happen in the auto industry. We're seeing it happen in the watch collecting industry. A lot of price correction is occurring right now in these kinds of like luxury good categories. And yet the pinball space seems to be unable to read the room. I want people to buy an Elton John and not unbox it and lose $3,000 when they cut the box open. I don't want to see my friends who love Jurassic Park, who now can get one and not spend $18,000. That's what the LEs were going for at the height of COVID. And now you were all excited, right? You bought one for 13 and you forgot one simple thing. The original Jurassic Park LE was like $8,500. And so Stern almost charged $5,000 more for the same exact game. And all they did was change the armor, change the stickers. And I'm seeing everybody say, nope, no more. The market is pushing back. And Elton John is going to get slaughtered by these market realities. And Jersey Jack has to know this wasn't Back to the Future. This wasn't Harry Potter. The last three titles they've made are not take my money now kinds of themes. And so they bring out three like B-themed games. And then they charge more than ever before in the history of pinball. And then everyone who unboxed one is losing money. Jersey Jack, listen to me. I love your products. I think you do put more and your games make Stern pinball machines look outdated. Now that the flippers are great, good. We finally realized how to make good gameplay after 10 years. But here's my advice to Jersey Jack. It's like, Jack, you're not going to sell a $12,000 Elton John if Guns N' Roses LEs are selling for $7,000. It's not going to work. We don't live in a vacuum and nor can the marketing departments at these pinball companies. And as these pinball companies have scaled up and want to sell more games, how are they going to sell more games if the prices new in box are this high? How are they going to sell more games if everyone's witnessing such a plummet in value of secondhand machines And so who going to wave the white flag Have the pinball brothers waived it Like Alien Ripley Edition is not that expensive That a bargain in today marketplace Pulp Fiction right at $9,700 seems like a bargain in today's marketplace. Because remember, if Stern made that game, they wouldn't put that kind of topper on the machine. They would charge you like $1,500 to $2,000 for that topper. which then means a Pulp Fiction LE is more like a $7,500 game with a $2,000 topper on top. And this is where we're at, people. And I think all of us have sent a message to these pinball companies. And the question now becomes, will they listen? You know, when I interviewed Jack, he said something, you know, he's like, life is short. You only live once. I know this. We all know this. Like, this is not a new concept. Nobody thinks they're going to live forever and wait out these pinball prices 50 years from now. But you can't just say that and then charge anything you want for a game, irregardless of what the market demand is, irregardless of what's happening on the secondhand market in your category. You know, life is short. And then I have to decide, is it worth it for me to spend $12,000 on a game? And just a year later, I might lose like four to $5,000. That's $4,000 to $5,000 I could spend doing things I'll never forget with my wife and child. It's $4,000 to $5,000 I could invest in something else. And why wouldn't you just sell me this game for the prices you used to just a few years ago? And this is what I'm calling for in pinball. I think Stern Pinball needs to charge $11,000 for the LEs. And you know why? Because when you're making $1,000, that's what the prices are going to slide down to. And even at that price, right? Venom LE at $11,000 is still going to slide back down to like $8,000 or $9,000. But if you start at $13,000, you're going to take such a big bath, you're never going to want to buy another Stern LE again. And I know Jaws is going to be the exception. It is going to be the exception to the rule because it's Keith Elwin. And look, unless Stern wants to only make Keith Elwin games, you know, this is not sustainable. But I really do believe when Jaws LE gets shown to the world, and because the last two years of themes have been underwhelming, and the last two years of pinball machines haven't really put much mechanical magic into the games, I think there are a lot of people out there who have been waiting on the sidelines like me. a lot of people out there that if they see Jaws and it's loaded and it looks amazing, I think you're going to see a day one sellout of Jaws LE at $13,000. Now look, do I think the game's going to go up in value over $13,000 as we're witnessing all these other games go down and down and down? And I don't fully know yet. It depends how amazing this game is. Like every single game Keith Elwin makes is not going to become the best game in the history of pinball people. He's going to eventually run a little thin on ideas. But if this game looks like it's better than Godzilla, if it's more friendly, more fun, more amazing than Godzilla and Godzilla is arguably his best game. You know, I don't know how it's going to do that without all the assets. Godzilla has every single asset you want. If you love Godzilla, that game looks like they held nothing back. so are we going to see something similar with Jaws pinball you know there's people out there that don't like Jaws they think it's a slow movie they think it's not going to work in pinball format they think it's not going to have the energy you need to make an exciting pinball game so we shall see we're going to see it in just a few weeks all right so look that's going to happen but that's not going to happen every single time and it's not going to happen every single month and it's not going to happen every single day so if I were a betting man I think Jaws might see a little blip in value because there's going to be FOMO in the first month. But then I think after that, if you ask me, do I think you'll be able to get a Jaws LE for less than $13,000 sometime in 2024? You know, looking at the market right now, I think the answer has to be yes. I think everything is starting to head south and it never used to be like this. You know, I'm just shocked when I see Jurassic Park 30th. Let's talk about this a little bit. You know, what happened to the days you one box to game, and maybe you wanted to move it on. Maybe it wasn't the game for you and you might list it for like $500 less than a distro is selling it for. Remember, this is a brand new game. This isn't like a two-year-old game or a four-year-old Jurassic Park. This is brand new out of the box Jurassic Park and the person who bought it. And it's more than just one for sale. If this was just one guy trying to move it on, I would say, you know what, Chris, maybe this is not indicative of the market, but there's like three to four of them where the price on Pinside are all $11,000, which means people are willing to lose $2,000 instantly on buying a brand new game. Never used to see that before. Guns and Roses collector's editions now are all the way down. They've slid all the way down from the high of around $20,000. Now you can get one for $13,000 or best offer, which means this game has come all the way down to 12.5 which is where a Jersey Jack collector's edition should be. You're not going to sell a thousand Elton Johns that don't have as much demand as GNR did and you have a thousand of them at 15k a pop. How do you expect to sell those games when Guns N' Roses CE is sitting there for 13k and there's only 500 in the world and GNR had more demand? Now I know people are going to be like well Guns N Roses now is not a good game Everyone realized there no flow We will see if there a code update today I heard there going to be one I not expecting huge things from a Jersey Jack code update You get the sense that they really don care about going back and making these games perfect But again if they listen and they do that these games will hold more value But we seeing a lot of market collapse happening around us And all this does to me is say these companies are either going to wake up or they're going to die a death by a thousand cuts. They're going to have to do something. They can't just sit around and have these big factories and not have the orders come in. And remember when I interviewed Jack, right? Remember that great interview I did Saturday? I said, Jack, do you think we've hit the price ceiling? And what did Jack say? He said, I don't think so, really. Like he didn't say no. He thinks there's more room to grow. There's more price climbing that can be done. And then when I asked Mike, one of the biggest distributors and dealers in the entire country, Mike, do you think we've hit the price ceiling? And what was his answer? He said, I hope so. I hope so. Distros and dealers are getting destroyed by these prices destroyed. They don't want to make people unhappy. They don't want to tie up all of their revenue in games that don't sell. You think anybody who's a distro wants to sell someone a Jurassic Park and two days later, the guy's seeing on the internet, he could have saved $2,000 if he just waited. And now the incentive is to just wait all the time. And like I said, if everybody's waiting and nobody's buying, then what happens to pinball real fast? I mean, we kind of think like nothing can cause pinball to collapse. Like this pinball market's gonna be strong forever. nobody's going to wake up and nothing can happen that's ever going to make pinball see terrible lean years but people it's all about supply and demand and if you have 12 pinball companies oversaturating the pinball market with so much inventory at such a high price that's a recipe for disaster throw into that mix most of these themes are not take my money now kinds of themes throw into the mix that these games are very mechanically missing a lot of magic and engineering, throw into the mix that every single one of you that's been in this hobby for at least five years, not the newbies, the newbies don't get it. All these companies are operating as if all of us are COVID pinball newbies. You know who they are. They're the guys who came into this hobby over the

14:32

what things used to cost. They don't know what real pinball magic mechanically is. They're just getting their feet wet. They got excited. They got bit by the pinball bug and they started buying during COVID. They were bored. They were at home. They had some money. They found a new community. They found a new identity. They found a new online persona to call themselves. And all of a sudden, they're pinball experts and they're putting up all this stuff and they know everything about pinball and they drop $100,000 on pinball machines and they do this, this, this to the machines. They think everything is amazing. Every mod is amazing. You know who they are. They do all this stuff and their excitement is great and their enthusiasm is great. But what they don't know is this, that we had the same excitement they did. We spent that much money as they did. But when we spent that much money, we got twice as many games. And when we sold our games, we didn't lose any money. So they don't remember the pinball period in which pinball buying and selling was not something that gave us agita. It wasn't something that kept us up at night. It wasn't something our wives were mad about because we could always point at this hobby and say, hey, you don't really lose much. And for those of us who bought MSRP years ago, you also loved COVID because you could sell to the newbies. You could make an extraordinary profit on these newbies. And we saw it happening, not just with scalpers, not just with people trading their games. We saw it happening with the distributors. Do you remember the days in COVID when distributors were like, I'm all sold out, I got nothing. And then all of a sudden a Godzilla LE would pop up in their inventory for $18,000. They were holding back their own inventory and scalping the community and then saying they were doing nothing wrong. Just hiding it behind is like, oh yeah, I'm selling for a customer. You're not selling for a customer. You're selling to put food on the plate. And look, could you blame them? Could you blame them? People were lining up at the door to buy these things for dumb prices. People are spending $20,000 on Stranger Things LEs and Jurassic Park LEs. People want $50,000 for a Magic Girl just because some of the mechs work now. And now everybody's waking up and realizing we can't do this. We can't spend $45,000 on three Jersey Jacks CEs. We can't spend 40 grand on three Stern LEs that don't even come with toppers. And then they're going to ask me $2,000 for a topper. We can't wake up in a world in which a black night topper was once $480 and now it's 1500 for the same exact thing. So my point on this episode is this, a lot of great pinball is going to come out, but people are not going to buy it. They are not going to spend this much money if everything on the used market is just tanking. And so somebody has to wave the white flag. Somebody's got to have the guts to put their pride aside and realize that they will make more profit if they bring the prices back down. Who will it be? Will it be Jersey Jack or Stern If any one of them lowers their prices that is going to be the greatest weapon they could fire at their competition You know they all act like oh we not competing Like, oh, yeah, it's all great. Kumbaya. No, these companies are competing with each other. There is not enough room for all these companies. And it's going to be very competitive. It's going to be a battleground. And I just think we're all over it. I think we're all over it. And I don't know about you, but I know about me. and I make a good living in life and I have a lot of excess money that I can play with every month. But more and more, I'm just like, ah, like why? Like I would absolutely be looking to put an Elton John in my home if it was 8,500 bucks, maybe $9,000 at most. There's no way I can justify getting one at $12,000, especially as LEs of GNR are seven. And that means like Godfather and Toy Story LEs are about to hit 6,500 bucks. Let me repeat that. A Jersey Jack LE is going to be the same price as a Stern Pro pretty soon, simply because they oversaturated. They made too many and they charged too much and everything heads south. If I were Jersey Jack marketing, you probably can't do it now because you sold all these Elton Johns or you priced them and you said, this is what it's going to be. Here's what I would do if I was Jersey Jack. Look, you got Brett Abbott. You got Leonard Abbott. You got billionaires backing you. Make a bold move. make a bold move that nobody expects. And I know you can't lower the price now and you might have Matrix and you might have Harry Potter around the corner, but the bold move on Elton John is to cap it. I think they need to cap it. I think if they want to move this game, I would say we're only going to make 2,000 Elton John machines, right? We've been parading this game around for a few months. We've looked at the demand. We look at the prices. We've heard the feedback. We know you guys want exclusivity. We know you want the premium product. There will be 1,000 collector's editions made and 1,000 platinum editions of the game made. That way you're not pissing off anybody. There are the same number of them in the world. They are completely different art packages. They are completely different offerings in terms of trims and accessories. And you say you're gonna make 2,000 and then all of a sudden Jersey Jack has read the market. They've positioned themselves as more of a high-end exclusive white glove bespoke pinball companies, which is what I think they need to do. They're not gonna win this volume war. Because the last thing you wanna see if you say your premium is a $7,000 Guns and Roses. You know, that's what's killing these luxury brands out in the world, people. You know what's killing Louis Vuitton sales and Gucci and all these luxury items that people don't really need is stuff like the RealReal and Grailed, all these secondhand sites where everyone's trading in their luxury items. And now you realize, well, if I just waited a year, I could have got those $1,000 jeans for like 200 bucks. And some of you are like, $200 for jeans, I spend 20 bucks. But you know, my point is this, is what's happening in other areas of culture will make its way to pinball. And if pinball keeps doing it this way, it's not going to work. We are not going to be able to buy these games, lose this much money, and it's not going to be sustainable. Look, I'm really excited that Jaws is around the corner. It's going to be an anomaly. It's going to be an exception to the rule. But it's also going to be the game that really, really tests this market. if it sells out instantly, it might reinforce where Jack is at and where Seth Davis is at. But then it's like, what's next from Stern? If Stern's next is John Wick or Journey, are you going to spend $13,000 on a Journey machine? I really don't know. I don't really think so. I think someone has to lower prices. The thing is this, if Stern lowered their prices to 2019, they would just destroy Jersey Jack pinball overnight. If I'm Jersey Jack, that's what I'd be afraid of. These guys can absolutely just cut the legs off of us if they go back to like 10.5 for an LE and then they go back to like what, like 8,500 for a premium. The reason why they're never going to do it, they're never going to do it now because they've sold thousands at these higher prices and then everybody who bought those inflated prices wouldn't buy again. I think Jersey Jack needs to cap their production numbers and not make stuff unlimited. It almost feels like they've both painted themselves into a corner. And this is why I've said it. I think they've opened the door for the boutique companies to eat their lunch. Only thing is we all know that the boutique companies still don't have the talent at the same level as Jersey Jack and Stern Pinball, but they're catching up. They're getting better every year and eventually they're going to get there. And if they get there and the price is much lower, I wouldn't want to be Stern needing to have distributors absorb like 4,000 games every few months because it's not going to happen. Everybody, thank you for being a member of Canada's Pinball Podcast. I'm happy I gave you two shows in a row. This one is not going to be free. We're going to have Twippy Voting open up in a couple of weeks, so get your votes ready. We're going to show everybody that the world's most positive pinball podcaster is also the most favorite, also has the most subscribers, also is the only one that has successfully monetized his show. Every terrible thing I am ends up with me being number one, everybody. We'll talk to you soon. Geronimo.