Kapow Offered $4 Million for Harry Potter Pinball & It Wasn’t Enough - Here’s What May Be Coming…

Knapp Arcade·article·analyzed·Jul 23, 2023

Analysis

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TL;DR

Conflicting Harry Potter pinball licensing rumors: full rights vs. stripped Hogwarts generic version.

Summary

Knapp Arcade reports conflicting rumors about Jersey Jack Pinball's Harry Potter license, citing Joe Kaminkow's claim that Kapow offered $4M+ for full rights. The article speculates that either JJP secured the full license for $5M+, or Warner Bros. is demanding $10M for full assets, prompting possible development of a stripped-down Hogwarts-generic machine instead for ~$800K.

Key Claims

Joe Kaminkow stated Kapow offered over $4 Million for Harry Potter license
medium confidence · Joe Kaminkow direct statement cited by Knapp Arcade; second-hand reporting
Warner Bros. is asking $10 Million for full assets Harry Potter pinball license
low confidence · Hearsay from unnamed sources; author notes uncertainty
The largest publicly disclosed pinball licensing fee is The Beatles at $1M (Stern)
high confidence · Author states this as factual benchmark; widely known in industry
Jersey Jack Pinball paid $1.2M for Willy Wonka license
low confidence · Author heard through grapevine; unconfirmed rumor
A Hogwarts-generic pinball machine license would cost $800K and is in development
low confidence · Author heard recently from unnamed sources; author admits uncertainty about manufacturer
American Pinball has He-Man Masters of the Universe license and is actively working on a pinball machine
medium confidence · Reported by Knapp Arcade from prior week; unverified claim but stated as news

Notable Quotes

“Joe Kaminkow just stated that all of the rights for a Harry Potter pin were available when he was negotiating with Warner Bros. and that Kapow offered over $4 Million dollars for the license to no avail.”
Knapp Arcade (reporting Joe Kaminkow statement) — Key evidence claim about Kapow's Harry Potter license bid and Joe Kaminkow's negotiating experience with Warner Bros.
“He still believes that Jersey Jack has the full license. If that is the case, then one would think that JJP must have paid at least $5 Million for it.”
Knapp Arcade — Author's speculation about JJP licensing cost based on Kapow's failed $4M+ bid
“I recently heard that despite all of the noise that Jersey Jack has the license starting back in May, Harry Potter pinball is not happening - at least not the full license, all assets way that big fans of the series want.”
Knapp Arcade — Contradicts earlier premise; suggests stripped-down Harry Potter license may be reality
“Warner Bros. wants a $10 Million licensing fee for a full assets Harry Potter pinball machine. Ten million!”
Knapp Arcade (reporting from sources) — Extreme licensing fee claim that would explain why full HP machine may not be happening
“the license for a generic pin based on Hogwarts would cost a much more reasonable $800,000 and that a pinball machine using that license IS indeed in the works”
Knapp Arcade (reporting from sources) — Alternative scenario: Hogwarts-generic game with much lower licensing cost

Entities

Jersey Jack PinballcompanyKapowcompanyJoe KaminkowpersonWarner Bros.organizationAmerican Pinballcompany Harry PottergameStern PinballcompanyWilly Wonkagame

Signals

?
business_signal: Kapow's failed $4M+ bid for Harry Potter license suggests significant capital constraints or strategic pivot at Kapow relative to JJP's ability to secure premium licenses
medium · Joe Kaminkow stated Kapow offered $4M+ but was rejected; author speculates JJP paid $5M+ by comparison
?
licensing_signal: Harry Potter pinball licensing landscape fragmented: full assets (unviable at $10M), generic Hogwarts (viable at $800K), or no machine at all remain possible outcomes
low · Author presents three conflicting scenarios and acknowledges uncertainty about which is correct despite recent reporting
?
licensing_signal: Warner Bros. Harry Potter licensing demands ($10M full assets vs $800K generic Hogwarts) may significantly constrain pinball game development and create alternative product paths
medium · Author reports hearing from sources that full license costs $10M (untenable) while generic Hogwarts costs $800K (viable) and may be in development
?
product_strategy: Potential stripped-down Hogwarts pinball game may be in active development at unknown manufacturer if full Harry Potter license proves unviable
low · Author reports hearing $800K Hogwarts license is in development but admits uncertainty about which company is developing it
?
rumor_hype: Conflicting reports about Jersey Jack Pinball's Harry Potter license status—either full license secured or stripped-down Hogwarts alternative being pursued
low · Author cites May announcement of JJP securing license, but also reports recent hearing that full license not happening and generic version alternative may be in works

Topics

Harry Potter pinball licensingprimaryPinball IP licensing costs and negotiationprimaryJersey Jack Pinball business strategysecondaryAmerican Pinball upcoming releasessecondaryStripped-down/generic licensed pinball gamessecondary

Sentiment

neutral(0)— Author maintains balanced reporting stance, acknowledging uncertainty while presenting multiple conflicting scenarios. Tone is speculative but not promotional or critical. Author repeatedly disclaims information as rumor-based.

Transcript

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I'm back from a week's vacation at the beach and rairin' to get back into the swing of big pinball and arcade news. Last week I brought word that American Pinball has the He-Man Masters of the Universe license and is actively working on a pinball machine using it. Let's start this week off with a Bang...or a Kapow. Joe Kaminkow just stated that all of the rights for a Harry Potter pin were available when he was negotiating with Warner Bros. and that Kapow offered over $4 Million dollars for the license to no avail. He still believes that Jersey Jack has the full license. If that is the case, then one would think that JJP must have paid at least $5 Million for it. I recently heard that despite all of the noise that Jersey Jack has the license starting back in May, Harry Potter pinball is not happening - at least not the full license, all assets way that big fans of the series want. People who I have spoken with are telling me that Warner Bros. wants a $10 Million licensing fee for a full assets Harry Potter pinball machine. Ten million! To put that in perspective, the largest ever publicly disclosed licensing fee that has been paid for a pinball license to this day is the $1 Million that Stern Pinball paid for The Beatles license, though I have heard through the grapevine that Jersey Jack Pinball paid a $1.2 Million fee for the Willy Wonka license. Joe may be right, but I personally recently heard that a fully licensed Harry Potter pinball machine isn't happening. I was told that the license for a generic pin based on Hogwarts would cost a much more reasonable $800,000 and that a pinball machine using that license IS indeed in the works, though I don't know by what company. Think something along the lines of the new video game Hogwarts Legacy. So there you have it Harry Potter fans. Is Joe Kaminkow correct and a fully-licensed Harry Potter pin still coming from JJP or is it a stripped down Hogwarts pin like I was recently told or are we getting nothing? Time will tell. As with everything that I write about, given what I know at this time and how I came about this information I strongly believe what I wrote to be true but as with all pinball rumors you never know for certain. I've got a couple of other really interesting stories that I'm working on for this week, so make sure to check back here often.