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Pinball Junk Drawer Episode 29 - The Pinball slump created by over saturation

Poor Man's Pinball Podcast·podcast_episode·analyzed·Aug 30, 2023
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.032

TL;DR

Pinball industry lull and market saturation prompt discussion of pricing bubbles and manufacturer sustainability.

Summary

Hosts Foghorn Leghorn and Craft Beer Sally discuss a perceived lull in the pinball industry caused by oversaturation of announcements and manufacturer competition. They explore the softening secondhand market, pricing sustainability concerns, and the speculative bubble in pinball valuations, drawing parallels to jukeboxes and other luxury goods. The episode reflects on community dynamics, personal gameplay struggles with Woe Nelly, and anticipation for future content opportunities.

Key Claims

  • All major manufacturers announced new games within a 28-minute period approximately 3 months ago

    medium confidence · Hosts note rapid-fire announcements followed by a content drought, suggesting coordinated or clustered announcement strategy

  • The secondhand pinball market is softening, with prices declining

    medium confidence · Referenced as 'talked about ad nauseum on Pinside' regarding price bubble; acknowledged as ongoing concern but no specific data provided

  • Stern Pinball improved product quality and innovation only after competition emerged

    medium confidence · Hosts state: 'they started getting better when competition started' and began offering color DMDs, online connectivity, and major licenses in response

  • Smaller pinball manufacturers are operating on tight profit margins and would struggle if the market bubble collapsed

    medium confidence · Speculation based on industry structure: 'some of these smaller places would go...they're probably operating on a very tight line anyway'

  • Licensing costs are significant but potentially necessary for game competitiveness

    medium confidence · Hosts acknowledge: 'the licenses that they're acquiring, those aren't cheap. Which everyone says they need' but express doubt about necessity

Notable Quotes

  • “everyone announced everything within a 28 minute period like 3 months ago and everyone's just sitting around like Jon Hey how you doing with that Pulp Fiction”

    Foghorn Leghorn @ early in episode — Captures the perceived content drought and announcement clustering that defines the industry lull

  • “although all of us bitch and complain, oh, they're so expensive, so expensive. Well, if the bubble would pop, that's a tragedy. Yeah. We're not getting nothing anymore.”

    Foghorn Leghorn @ mid-episode — Core paradox: consumers want lower prices but high prices are necessary for manufacturer survival

  • “I remember when, for that 20 seconds, jukeboxes were the coolest thing in the history of the world. And everyone was buying jukeboxes for like 10 grand...and then literally overnight everyone's like well these are cool but they break all the time”

    Foghorn Leghorn @ late in episode — Historical analogy for speculative bubble collapse and pricing normalization across luxury goods

  • “everything now in our world is like oh a collector's watch it's going to be worth blah oh and it's not no it's just a thing it's just an object”

    Foghorn Leghorn @ late in episode — Critique of speculative mentality driving inflated pricing expectations among buyers

  • “this guy sucks at pinball...Well, I don't. Well, I do. Tim Dan Lee sucks at pinball. Shout out to Tim Dan Lee.”

    Foghorn Leghorn @ mid-episode — Self-deprecating humor about skill on Woe Nelly; references ongoing community in-joke

Entities

Foghorn LeghornpersonCraft Beer SallypersonGary SternpersonCharliepersonStern PinballcompanyJersey Jack PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyDistrict 82organization

Signals

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Community perception shift from enthusiasm to uncertainty about market direction; hosts describe 'lull' and acknowledge normal hobby ebb-and-flow but with concern about sustainability

    medium · Hosts state: 'I feel like i'm in like a lull right now a pinball lull' and 'I know light on the pinball stuff...this one seems a little bit more lullier than most'

  • $

    market_signal: Secondhand pinball market showing signs of price softening and valuation uncertainty

    medium · Hosts reference: 'it looks like the secondhand market is softening' and acknowledge ongoing Pinside discussions about 'the price bubble, the bubble, the bubble'

  • ?

    industry_signal: Burst of clustered game announcements followed by content drought, suggesting possible manufacturing or marketing coordination

    medium · Hosts describe: 'everyone announced everything within a 28 minute period like 3 months ago and everyone's just sitting around' with multiple games in limbo (Pulp Fiction, Queen, Aliens, Big Lebowski, ABBA)

  • ?

    business_signal: Speculative concern that smaller boutique manufacturers may be unsustainable if market prices decline significantly

    medium · Hosts speculate: 'some of these smaller places would go...they're probably operating on a very tight line anyway' and discuss necessity of high prices for survival

  • ?

    community_signal: Hosts noting reduced engagement with pinball events due to competing priorities (California trip) and personal gaming diversification

    medium · Craft Beer Sally states: 'Switch has stolen Craft Beer Sally away from pinball' and hosts mention skipping Pinball Expo and MGC due to vacation planning

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.069

0:00
Now who's responsi- I say who's responsible for this unwarranted attack on my person? I say, I say, I say, pay attention now, boy. This is, of course, Foghorn Leghorn presents the Pinball Junk Drawer. You all asked for it. I say, I say, you all asked for it now. You're gonna get it. Boy, oh boy, are you gonna get it. Go, I say, go away, boy, you bother me. And of course, by that awesome intro, I mean it is time for the one, the only, the often imitated, never duplicated, Pinball Junk Jore, Big Show number 29. My name is Foghorn Leghorn, and with me as always, Craft Brew Sally. The talented and lovely, Craft Brew Sally. Yes, we'll go with that one. Actually, I'm going to leave them both in, because I am the Ed Wood of podcasts. Awesome. Not really. so we're here to talk about pinball whatever pinball uh news rumors no none of that stuff we just talk a little bit about pinball and hopefully make people laugh along the way and grow a little and love a little oh my god oh my goodness boy it's getting deep in here anyway you know it's kind of funny i feel like i'm in like a lull right now a pinball lull yeah like there's nothing going on there's a lot going on there is everyone announced everything within a 28 minute period like 3 months ago and everyone got crazy and now everyone's just sitting around like hey how you doing with that Pulp Fiction how you doing with that Queen, how you doing with that Aliens how you doing with that Big Lebowski how you doing with that Big Bang Barbie remake how you doing with that Barbie that I said was going to be released last show. I ain't doing about all those made-up rumors I made up.
1:46
I ain't doing that. What was that one? I probably had people scratching their heads. I ain't doing that Eternal Darkness GameCube remake. Or GameCube one.
1:57
Nothing. I guess this is normal, though. Anytime you're in a hobby or there's stuff you like, you have ebb and flow. There's just periods where you're not super over the top into it. But then something gets you back into it if you really love it. I was like that with video games for a while where I didn't play a whole lot of them. I guess I still don't play a lot a lot like we used to. It's hard. Well, I am right now. You have a queue of games waiting to play. And I'm up to 890 hours on my Animal Crossing. That's not far off from reality, which is scary. Man With No Name sent the totals of what we were playing at one point just out of nowhere. And it was like 750 hours on Animal Crossing. I went, huh, I really should get more of a life. But, yeah, I mean, I don't know about you, but I still play. I've been playing pinball more than you have, where I'll come down and I'll play one or two games just to kind of. I use it to clear my head sometimes. Like when I get home and I'm frustrated, sometimes I'll just go and play a game or two. Maybe I should try that. It helps. It's something that you're like, well, how does he say it on the Man Who Saved Pinball? it's nice to be reminded that there's something you're good at every now and then so you just have fun but yeah it's just been one of those down times we don't have any we're not looking forward to going to any of the shows because we're just all we're focused on is our upcoming California trip so there's no expo, there's no MGC there's no anything I was really looking forward to my game, my Pikmin 4 yeah that's what you're doing Yep, that's what I'm doing. Pikmin 4. Switch has stolen Craft Roussali away from pinball. Not completely, of course. You know, I know soon the District 82 will be open on Saturdays again. Oh, yes. So that'll help. I mean, you need to kind of get back into it. One of the things that was kind of, I'm really on a fence about this because it's like one of those things where I set like a goal, and I don't think I'm going to do it.
Woe Nelly
game
Pulp Fictiongame
Queengame
Aliensgame
Galactic Tank Forcegame
Dialed In Collector's Editiongame
The Big Lebowskigame
ABBAgame
Pinsideorganization
Mystery Pinball Theater 3000media
We Suck at Video Gamesmedia
Pet Skull Brewingorganization
  • ?

    product_strategy: Stern Pinball's competitive response and innovation acceleration triggered by market competition

    medium · Hosts claim Stern improved quality when competitors emerged: 'they started getting better when competition started' and began offering color DMDs, online connectivity, and major licenses

  • ?

    product_concern: Broader concern about luxury goods speculation bubble and unrealistic buyer expectations for pinball appreciation

    medium · Hosts reference jukebox analogy and critique speculative mentality: 'everyone's like, well, I'm going to buy this and it going to be worth 20 times as much by Christmas'

  • ?

    venue_signal: District 82 (Wisconsin venue) reopening Saturdays, providing accessible competitive play opportunity

    medium · Craft Beer Sally mentions: 'soon the District 82 will be open on Saturdays again' as motivation to return to active play

    • 4:03
    We own a Woe Nelly. Now, if you don't know what a Wonelli is, it's this really goofy kind of one-off throwback style game where it's modeled after the old, it has the two-inch flippers. There's no ball save. There's no end of ball bonus. There's no multi-nothing. It's made like an old EM, but it's a solid state, of course. And what was the other one? Pabst? Pabst Can Crusher. Pabst Can Crusher. And then they also read it as Primus for a third run, and you're like, okay, let's settle down. this game really it's hard it's really hard and i try like at the beginning of the year no maybe it was around my birthday i was like this year i'm flipping this game i'm gonna i'm gonna roll it you know because it only goes if you hit uh 10 000 or 999 it flips over it goes to zeros again that's how hard not even close no and i've been trying to like really really focus in on scoring and really, really trying to figure out how I can get more score and it's just this thing just kicks you in the dick. It's so hard. This is such a hard game and I'm like, I'm close to taking the glass off and just cheating but I don't know if I want to do that. No, you wouldn't feel right about that. I want to see what it does. Right. It's like, oh my god.
    5:23
    And I can usually do okay at a game if I really focus at them. Like, you know what I mean? If I really focus in, but this one's just brutal. Yeah. What is your top score right now?
    5:35
    I think it 5 or I might have rolled to 64 I can remember exactly I think it upper 5 lower 6 Okay Now I know at home people are like this guy sucks at pinball Well, I don't. Well, I do. Tim Lee sucks at pinball. Shout out to Tim Lee. I'm getting a little confused by that chain.
    5:59
    I'm starting to think maybe people hate each other. That's the way it comes across. But I don't think that's the way it is at all.
    6:05
    There's like a long-running thread. Not thread. Chain. Email, no, message chain, message board. Yeah. It's all the tribe members. And sometimes it hurts my head a little bit, but it's okay. I'm easily confused. Don't worry, everyone. It's okay. So I really don't know. Like, the game is so – I'm not frustrated. I don't hate it. No. And I'm not frustrated by it. I don't rage quit it. It's just like, oh, I just want to do that one goal, and I just can't. Oh, well. Yep. Yeah. You'll get there. Yep, indeed.
    6:37
    You'll figure it out. You know, well, what else are we going to talk about today? We have the only other topic, because there's no real topics. You know, it looks like the secondhand market is softening.
    6:49
    Now, this is something that's been talked about ad nauseum on Pinside, as far as the price bubble, the bubble, the bubble, the bubble. Because, obviously, pinball prices and all these manufacturers springing up are charging a very, very exorbitant price for what is deemed a luxury item. You know, some people use them as moneymakers, so I can't say that exclusively, but, you know, they buy the pros and all that kind of stuff. You know, and with it softening and you kind of – nobody really knows where this is headed. No one really knows where our – anything is headed. We might go into a financial collapse and then, well, then nothing's worth anything except water and bullets. But what – like if it's softened and let's pretend the bubble popped. okay now all of a sudden the bottom drops out of the pinball world well that's terrible yeah what happens we don't what i don't know what would happen do you have i mean i wouldn't i have no idea like i'm sure some of these smaller places would go would be gone easily they're probably operating on a very tight yeah you know line anyway you know so i mean if they're if they have a good accountant or lawyer or they're probably investing that money so that it stretches out further, but also... But how far? Right. Because you have to pay all your talent. Yeah. Look at all those... Oh, I'm sorry. And the licenses that they're acquiring, those aren't cheap. Which everyone says they need. Yeah. Which I don't know if that's true or not. Like Galactic Tank Force. Yeah. I really want to get back to that game. I really want to get back to Pulp Fiction. I need to play those two again. But like, you know, from a potential buyer that I'm always looking for used games, I'm always looking for games. Well, a secondhand game doesn't help Stern or JJP or Spooky. That's money they've already got. They've already got that money. They got their money and that's it. So although all of us bitch and complain, oh, they're so expensive, so expensive. Well, if the bubble would pop, that's a tragedy. Yeah. We're not getting nothing anymore. No. And God bless them. Stern did all they could to keep the ship afloat during the bad times, but with no competition. Stern games during that time were terrible. Right. Not terrible, terrible. But they weren't. They only, they started getting better when competition started, and then they started showing, look, we are the best. Yeah. Well, I don't want to say best. I like Stern, but I mean, they started showing that they were the top maker when more competition happened. and all of a sudden now they have color DMDs. Now they have like they started pushing the envelope again because they had to. And now they have big licenses. They have licenses. They have the online, the Connect, which is awesome. Yeah, that is really. That was a good idea. It was just one of those things where I started thinking about that and I was like, well, you know, although we don't want to pay these crazy prices, it kind of has to be that way. Yeah. Because if it starts to dip down and they start to become worth less, what happens? It's just no good for anybody. Did they just start making games that are less money? No, they can't. It's almost like they couldn't. I remember, and I always kind of think of it this way. I remember when, for that 20 seconds, jukeboxes were the coolest thing in the history of the world. And everyone was buying jukeboxes for like 10 grand or something crazy. Maybe not that much, but they were a lot. Yeah. and then literally overnight everyone's like well these are cool but they break all the time and also i have an ipod that has 28 000 times more music so these are dumb so they are still cool and i still we will get one at some point but they're not 10 grand cool so all these people that bought them at that price still wanted that price forever yeah and that's not how it works that isn't how it works because new technology comes out like we of course want one that has 45s in it or that we can put our 45s in but a lot of places are these those digital ones yeah of course and you can you can play songs from your phone you can play anything you want onto the jukebox where our dumb one is going to have 20 of our favorites and then we'll swap them out and it's just yeah so i don't know like there was a time rightfully so you bought a pinball machine and you knew same as a car when you took it home it would just become worthless more and more every day because that's the way things work in real life. I think everyone thinks now, like, in their brain, everyone's like, well, I'm going to buy this and it going to be worth 20 times as much by Christmas you know you know 40 grand by christmas you like that bullshit that right that not reality it not no one who expects that why would you expect that yeah you know everything now in our world is like oh a collector's watch it's going to be worth blah oh and it's not no it's just a thing it's just an object it's not and you know next year's new shiny makes this one garbage and that's the way it's just been backwards for a little while so now i think the shock of that is going to start catching up with people and then like they always say like oh people like guys will buy these and then their wives get angry guys i have a feeling for a long time spouses had i'm going to say spouses because it's not guys it's whoever likes pinball the spouse is like that's nuts that price but they've been going yeah but it's gonna be worth twice as much well now the spouse is now they're gonna be like that's bullshit this thing's only worth three grand and we paid 10 a year ago you know and you're like well that's the way life is i don't know it's i think it's got a level off but i just hope it keeps going at least enough that the everyone that wants to be a maker and everyone that wants to do mods and everyone's do this cool stuff can continue doing it yes at whatever level but you know i'm just that kind of a love Peace and love, man. I'm like a hippie. I'm not a hippie. All right. So I think we're kind of moving on. I think it's time for everyone's favorite segment of the show.
    13:02
    The fans have spoken and we have listened. It's Beer Journal Review with me, Craft Brew Sally. Bring out a song of the dead.
    13:20
    I'll find and roll the dice. Hi, Ma. Does that seem a little girly to you? Yes, it does. That's the idea. What do you have for us this week, Craft Brew Sally? We have a few things this week. Wow, good, because we don't have nothing to talk about in the pinball. So this week we are going to talk about the making of Craft Brew Sally. I mean, not the actual physical love making of Sally. No, no thanks. No. Thanks though. Thanks for that, right? Yes. An outrageous statement that I have made. Oh my God. Stay tuned, everyone. And the Stein Hoist Challenge. Oh my God. Stay tuned, everyone. so my my parents are here visiting us for well last weekend this coming week and my mom told the story of how my grandfather used to give me beer when i was in the crib because that's just good parenting uh-huh yes he used to dip my finger in his rolling rock yes rolling rock you heard that right everyone there's a thing called rolling rock and it is still being made.
    14:30
    It got pulled off the market when all those hillbillies went blind, but they brought it back with a new formula.
    14:36
    So when I was little, I used to go to my grandmother's house pretty much every weekend, and I'd be in my crib, and my papi, he drank quite a bit, and he would always dip my finger in whichever beer he was drinking and then have me drink it.
    14:55
    Ah, yes. The making of craft brew, Sally. Nice. I remember I used to go around and steal beer when I was a kid. It was Horlocker. I don't think I ever had Horlocker. There's a reason. That was one of those local beers made in small town Pennsylvania.
    15:12
    Yeah. What was it? There was New Wilders and Horlockers. That was in this small, small area in Pennsylvania that we grew up in. Never had it. I mean, obviously, they went away pretty early. And it might not have been that. Kind of like the hams. and old style. Ham's is still around. Old style is still around too. Yeah. I heard, I think they're going to start making old style again. That's, I heard in, are they moving from Milwaukee to somewhere? I can't remember. Doesn't matter. We'll talk more on that later when we actually have facts. Right. Sorry. And not just some random half red Facebook post. You're like, oh, look at that. Oh, look a kitten. Yeah, that's pretty much what Facebook is now. Exactly. Yes. So what else do you have? So you had the making of Craft for Sally. Yes. It's been finally honed over the years of having to. Yes, it has. That's where it all began. That's where it began. Yeah. Back to the roots. My pappy. Yes.
    16:12
    But then we're also going to talk. I made an outrageous statement. Okay. Because I get made fun of a lot at my house because I have an overflowing section of beers that are in various boxes.
    16:30
    It's very unkempt, and I'm a very... Kemped. Kemped person, I guess. That's not the right way to say that, but I'm very cleanly, and I try and keep things neat and tidy. So I think I may need a shelf, first of all, for my overflow beer stash. Yes. But also, I said out loud that I wasn't going to buy any more beer until my stash was under control. And it's been a couple weeks, and I'm kind of having withdrawal from buying beer. I will say, I'm fairly surprised at you, because first of all, she said that, and I said, you can't unsay it. I pointed at her so that was the end of that She was locked in But there are some obvious gray areas there You know when you say under control like that usually where she starts flexing and like not flexing on me like going oh yeah I took my no Like she's like, wow, this isn't so unkempt. And now this is kind of, I'm going to drink and things and stuff. And this is for some time. And I go, lies. but I have not bought any beer since I made that outrageous statement well you did drink some beer at a brewery my mom and I went to Pet Skull Brewing in Manitowoc but yeah we went to the brewery we had lunch there it was some really good chicken nachos they had really good beer but I did not bring any beer home Well, I guess seat loophole number one. Right? That's right. But you did like them? Yeah, they were really good. I would definitely go back there again. We'll be going back there at some point? Okay, that's cool. Like they made one that was a cherry lemonade.
    18:21
    Oh, you love those. It was so good. Isn't that? It's kind of like shandy. Yeah. You like those. Well, that's cool. Very nice. And yes, don't worry. We will figure out some sort of shelving system. Yes. And then Craft Brew will be back in the saddle again. Although I will say our upcoming life change dedication will be a little tough on that for a while again. Right. But that's a good thing. Yep. For those of you who don't know, we recently, well, not recently, July 11th, a year ago, we went on a very strict diet counting every calorie. And we both lost significant weight. and we went off that as far as like we weren't super tight on it and then immediately the weights started coming back so now not crazy but we're both going the wrong direction so starting next Monday there's a reason we're setting that date we're going to go back to the actual counting and that means no beer well not no beer but Yes. Very, very limited. Very limited. But that's okay. It's for a good cause. We want to be thinner when we get to Disney and for whatnot. And also to live longer. Yes. So now what is, you alluded to one other thing in your craft booth segment. What is that? So we were out and about today and we stopped at a yard sale.
    19:50
    As we often do. Yes. Because we're always trying to find games. And why would we do that? For our other show. What other show could you be talking about? My God, is there some other show? I should be listening to. We suck at video games. Well, where can somebody find that? All the streaming platforms.
    20:06
    But after we perused for Wii games. And found some. Yay! For more Wii garbage. We also found some heavy steins. Yeah, the guy had like maybe ten, but probably like seven. I don't know. So we got three of them. And they were selling them for a reasonable price. one dollar a piece a dollar a piece and these had the stamps on the bottom saying yeah i'm from german ach tung baby and all that stuff and david hasselhoff and all the german stuff you know not all the german stuff but you know what i'm talking about so we bought two that are probably a liter size big and then i immediately challenged foghorn to a steinheuss steinheuss challenge oh Oh, my God. So we will start practicing, and then we will have a Steinhoist. I have a feeling next Saturday, you know, we also have a very big collection of vinyl records. And of those, we have about, I'd say, 10 or possibly more German beer drinking records. I am fearful of putting one of those on because I have a feeling I would wake up either in jail or dead. I don't know. If you listen to that German beer drinking music, you're drinking like 12 beers an hour for like a night. And I don't think I would survive. But I guess we'll put that to the test right after the German Stein Hoist competition. I'm surprised you challenged me to that. I think I have a little bit more upper body strength. Maybe you have some technique you don't know about. So we might need to set a date, and we'll figure it out then. I might be sitting in the living room holding my Stein. next time is what we're doing oh no it's okay so anything else is that the end of the show I think so look folks I know light on the pinball stuff we're trying we have to get out more and I should be doing more homework because I'm sure there is things going on it's just a little light right now summer is always a lull and this one seems a little bit more lullier than most maybe I should just see if I can get down to Charlie and see if he'd let us visit and talk I know I keep wanting to I asked him he said when he comes out of COVID and I asked him again and he was like we're still really backed up I hate to but maybe he'll let me because Charlie and Spooky would be a really fun time and I would love to just chat alright that's going to be it for this week my name is Paul Gordon-Lagward and with me as always Craft Brew Sally and we will see you next week for more pinball shenanigans we hope you've enjoyed the show See you next time, everyone.
    22:51
    That's it, man. Game over, man. Game over.