Episode 962: "Is American Pinball Done?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·19m 46s·analyzed·May 31, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.030

TL;DR

Kaneda declares American Pinball 'over,' warns of Stern oversaturation and industry collapse.

Summary

Kaneda delivers a strongly critical monologue declaring American Pinball defunct, citing mismanagement under David Fix, failed game releases (Hot Wheels, Galactic Tank Force, Cuphead in development), and poor licensing decisions. He also warns of industry-wide oversaturation—Stern producing 600 games/week with thousands unsold in Chicago warehouses—and predicts a market collapse with prices falling sharply by year's end.

Key Claims

American Pinball has no way out and will not survive to Pinball Expo (October 2025)
high confidence · Kaneda, host; stated multiple times as primary thesis of episode
Cuphead is 'an utter disaster,' doesn't shoot well, and American Pinball lacks money to complete it
medium confidence · Kaneda citing rumors heard from unnamed sources in the pinball content space
Stern Pinball has thousands of unsold games sitting in a Chicago warehouse, is cranking out 600 games/week
medium confidence · Kaneda reporting from unnamed source who visited the warehouse; framed as hearsay
Ryan McQuade was hired based on a single homebrew Sonic game without licensed IP rights
high confidence · Kaneda; factually accurate regarding McQuade's Sonic homebrew, but characterization of hiring rationale is opinion
Metallica remake will release in July 2025; Aerosmith and Godzilla remakes also planned
medium confidence · Kaneda citing 'hearing' this information; connected to Ride the Lightning anniversary
David Fix approved Galactic Tank Force after Dennis Norman pitched it to Spooky Pinball (who rejected it)
medium confidence · Kaneda; characterizes as poor decision-making, sourcing unclear
There are 14 active pinball companies competing, creating market oversaturation
high confidence · Kaneda; consistent with KB entity count (8-10 major + smaller manufacturers)
Prices for LE/CE games will drop significantly by year-end (e.g., Elton John CE to $12k, Jaws LE to $10k)
medium confidence · Kaneda prediction based on oversaturation and dealer pressure; opinion framed as market forecast

Notable Quotes

“American Pinball is over. Now look, I've been spending the entire day talking to other people in the pinball content space. They're all learning this information in different ways, but here's the truth. This company has no way out.”
Kaneda @ Early in episode — Core thesis statement; sets tone for entire episode
“David Fix has made over the years. Think about it. David Fix came on board and he's done nothing. He didn't fix Hot Wheels. He did not implement a loop-de-loop or a jump or a ramp.”
Kaneda @ Mid-episode — Direct attack on David Fix's tenure and Hot Wheels game development
“I have people that are listening to this show right now that paid $17,500 for a Galactic Tank Force Signature Edition game with David Fix signing the apron of the game. It's utter garbage, okay?”
Kaneda @ Mid-episode — Critique of Galactic Tank Force pricing and quality; implies listeners harmed
“Cuphead is an utter disaster, that the game is not good. It doesn't shoot well, that American Pinball doesn't even have money to make this game, and they're gonna try to cobble something together to get to Pinball Expo in October.”
Kaneda @ Mid-episode — Critical intel on Cuphead development status and company finances
“Stern Pinball is cranking out like 600 games a week. Who's absorbing all of these games at all of these prices? There's not like 600 locations in America that are asking for every single new pinball machine.”
Kaneda @ Mid-to-late episode — Core argument for industry oversaturation and impending collapse
“There are thousands of unsold Stern games sitting in this warehouse. Thousands of them just piled. Like it's like Indiana Jones and the Ark of the Covenant scene at the end of that movie.”
Kaneda @ Late-mid episode — Vivid description of Stern inventory crisis; sourced to unnamed warehouse visitor
“If you want an Elton John CE, you will be able to get it for $12,000 easily. You want a Jaws LE? $10,000 all day long. I don't care what the title is. Nothing is going to hold people because there's 14 companies.”

Entities

Kanedaperson American Pinballcompany David Fixperson Ryan McQuadepersonStern PinballcompanyCupheadgame

Signals

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business_signal: American Pinball characterized as insolvent with no viable products or path to survival; predicted to fail before Pinball Expo October 2025
medium · Kaneda's repeated assertions combined with claims about Cuphead funding shortfalls and lack of buyer interest in existing portfolio
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market_signal: Industry described as having 14 competing manufacturers, thousands of unsold games in warehouses, and 600 games/week production from Stern alone; collapse predicted with significant secondary market price drops
medium · Detailed warehouse inventory claims, production rate statistics, price predictions for Elton John/Jaws/other titles
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product_concern: Cuphead reported as non-functional (poor shooting mechanics, incomplete development); Galactic Tank Force condemned as low quality despite premium $17.5k pricing
medium · Kaneda's reports from unnamed sources; direct customer testimony implied via podcast audience
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personnel_signal: David Fix's leadership tenure characterized as series of strategic blunders spanning multiple years; Steve Bowen and Ryan McQuade criticized as unqualified or ineffective
high · Specific examples (Hot Wheels promises unfulfilled, Galactic Tank Force approval, Ryan McQuade hiring without championship credentials)
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product_launch: Stern planning remake releases: Metallica (July 2025 likely), Aerosmith, Godzilla; strategy framed as pivot away from new-in-box after John Wick failure
medium · Kaneda reports Metallica tied to Ride the Lightning anniversary; no official confirmation provided

Topics

American Pinball company viability and managementprimaryIndustry oversaturation and market collapseprimaryStern Pinball inventory crisis and strategyprimaryGame pricing and secondary market dynamicsprimaryCuphead development status and challengesprimaryDavid Fix's leadership record and decisionsprimaryStern Pinball remake strategy (Metallica, Aerosmith, Godzilla)secondaryPinball podcast/content creator credibility and independencesecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.92)— Intensely critical throughout; hostile toward David Fix, American Pinball leadership, and Stern's business practices; frustrated with industry saturation and perceived dishonesty in competing media; some positivity toward Barrels of Fun for engagement; self-promotional tone regarding Kaneda's own independence and subscriber count

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.059

I don't normally do these Kaneda late nights like this on the podcast. I would normally do these on Facebook live, but now that we're almost at 720 subscribers, I'm not going to be giving away the candid stuff for free no more like this. So let's do an episode of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast where I'm going to drop some truth bombs right now. Let's hit the music. You know I like my chicken fried, and cold beer on a Friday night, a pair of jeans that fit just right, and a radio. Welcome everybody to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, the only pinball podcast where you're gonna hear stuff like this. American pinball is over. Now look, I've been spending the entire day talking to other people in the pinball content space. They're all learning this information in different ways, but here's the truth. This company has no way out. And I don't often say that, but normally there's a way out for a pinball company. If you're Stern Pinball and you make a flop game like John Wick, you know your way out? You call up an ex-girlfriend. Stern Pinball right now is acting like a guy that walks into a bar after being newly single and thinks he's gonna go home and get some action with the new girl at the bar. And what happens when he gets shut down all night, which is what John Wick is doing right now, it's getting shut out by all the new in box buyers, they're just gonna call up an ex-girlfriend named Metallica, an ex-girlfriend named Aerosmith, an ex-girlfriend named Godzilla, I'm your host, Barry Oursler, and I'll see you next time on American Pinball. David Fix has made over the years. Think about it. David Fix came on board and he's done nothing. He didn't fix Hot Wheels. He did not implement a loop-de-loop or a jump or a ramp. He said he was going to do that like five years ago. And then what does he go do? Does he make a great game? No. He goes and licenses Legends of Valhalla, a Riot game machine that nobody wanted when they could have it. Remember, people forget this. There's a lot of newbies in this hobby that don't remember the origins of any of this stuff. Remember that Riot Games made Wrath of Olympus and nobody wanted that game. And then they released Legends of Valhalla and nobody really wanted that game. Sure, maybe you sold a few hundred games during COVID, but that was never going to save American Pinball. And then David Fix goes and he partners up with Dennis Nordman and he builds this freaking galactic tank force game that was sitting in a barn for like 10 years that nobody wanted to make. You know Dennis Nordman wanted to make this game with Spooky Pinball? They said no. They were wise. And yet when you land on David Fix's desk with the terrible idea, he is gonna stamp it approved. And so he approved this company to apply all of its resources to make Galactic Tank Force. And not just that people, he also made really arrogant moves like we're only going to make 250 of these like signature edition games for $17,500. I have people that are listening to this show right now that paid $17,500 for a Galactic Tank Force Signature Edition game with David Fix signing the apron of the game. It's utter garbage, okay? He's got that failure. And the rumors are that this company has the license for He-Man Masters of the Universe and then he's got Ryan McQuaid. Remember when David Fix signed Ryan McQuaid, it's when Ryan McQuaid was parading around his Sonic the Hedgehog homebrew game. Ryan McQuaid is not a championship pinball player. He's a guy that made one pinball homebrew machine based upon a theme he loved in Sonic the Hedgehog. He did not have Sega's licensing approval. All the stuff in that game was just a single one homebrew game And what does David Fix do He hires Ryan McQuaid Three years ago people three years ago Ryan McQuaid has been over at American Pinball working on Cuphead And here's what I'm hearing right now. That Cuphead is an utter disaster, that the game is not good. It doesn't shoot well, that American Pinball doesn't even have money to make this game. and they're gonna try to cobble something together to get to pinball expo in october in october people let's count the months right now it is june july august september october five months from now this company's gonna stay afloat for five months while nobody buys barrios barbecue challenge doing what what are they gonna do they don't have a well like stern pinball nobody wants more who deenies Nobody wants more Hot Wheels. Nobody wants more Oktoberfest games. It's over. They have no way out. No way out whatsoever. I'm here to tell you right now what no other pinball podcaster will tell you, what no other pinball content creator can tell you, because they don't want to get sued by David Fixx. This company is over. They have absolutely no way out. And David Fixx knows it. Mukesh knows it. All of them know it. Because there's no way to put the same team on the field every single night and expect a different result. These guys have made the worst decisions consistently of any pinball company since I've been covering pinball. I mean it. Because this company has the ability to manufacture and yet they can't get it right. And David Fix has been making such boneheaded moves for so many years and Mukesh doesn't know any better. And again, for you newbies out there, you have to remember the origins of American pinball. This company was created to bring John Popadiuk's Magic Girl to market. That's it. These guys were making J-Pops boards. This is just all long karma playing itself out. They don't know pinball. Mukesh is not a pinball fanatic. Mukesh is not a Gary Stern or George Gomez. He's just a guy with a separate company making a fortune who's been bankrolling his like nieces and nephews and cousins. This whole thing has been like a nepo baby company since day one and David Fix has hoodwinked all of them and has taken all of their money and made terrible decisions. And so there's no way out. And I'm hearing right now American Pinball is in a tailspin, they are running on fumes, And if they're only out is Ryan McQuaid's Cuphead, it's over. Remember people, Ryan McQuaid made one homebrew game. He's not a Keith Elwin. He's not one of the world's greatest pinball players who decided to make a pinball machine in his basement. He's not like Jack Danger who's played more pinball than you and I have had hot meals. He's not. Just an average ordinary guy who made a homebrew game based on a license he didn't even acquire the rights to and then went over to American Pinball, has been there for three years and has showcased absolutely nothing. He's showcased absolutely nothing and I'm just gonna say this. I'm so tired of looking at the smug faces of Steven Bowden, David Fix, and Ryan McQuaid over at American Pinball because they haven't done anything. Collectively, they've done nothing. Steven Bowden, you've had no impact on any new in box game ever. Ryan McQuaid, same thing. David Fix, same thing. In my opinion, this company is over. They have absolutely no way out. And when you're a boutique company like this, and I mean this, when you're a boutique company, every game you make when you're a boutique company needs to be a hit. Because you need every game on the line to be selling. You can't have a miss like this when you're a boutique. Because you don't have the resources and the personnel to do what Stern can do when they have a miss like John Wick. You just can't quickly pivot and put something else on the line. You can't go remake an older title that people want because newsflash, American Pinball, nobody wants any of your older titles. Nobody wants more Hot Wheels. I mean, it's absolutely embarrassing that Steven Bowden, they position him as a superstar. I don't know on what universe this guy's a superstar. They say that pinball superstar Steven Bowden This is a game that what like four or five years old this is a joke so you heard it here right now may 30th this company is not gonna make it to pinball expo they just not gonna make it part of me hopes like this lights a fire under their butts and they want to prove me wrong but i gonna tell you right now cuphead is going to be horrible anything this team puts into a box is going to be horrible they have no vision All right, you know what I'm also hearing? I'm hearing Harry Potter's next. I'm hearing Jack Winari has Harry Potter ready to go. I'm hearing he has it based on the first few movies of the movie series. So that's good news. I mean, all you gotta do is make Harry Potter based on the first three movies and you're just gonna make yourself like 10,000 orders overnight. I mean, that's all people want. And I think the whole Mark Sadan's not working on Harry Potter. Then what is he working on? Is he working on Muppets? Man, I don't know, man. You can't bring out Muppets after Elton John. It's gotta be this. It's gotta be Harry Potter. The other thing I heard tonight which is worrisome, which also does indicate to me why Stern Pinball is nervous. I mean the fact that Stern invited all these people over to Stern to make these fluff pieces for Stern, they're nervous. Here's what I heard tonight. There is a warehouse in Chicago. And what happens is this is Stern Pinball makes their games and then they send it to this warehouse in Chicago. And it's from that warehouse in Chicago that all these dealers and distros ship their products from right? They don't want to hold it in house. They drop ship their games from this warehouse to you. So think about that for a minute. How hard it is to be a distro, right? It's like Stern makes a game and they send it to this warehouse and you're a distro. I'm not sure if distros have to buy their games before they go to this warehouse, but there is a warehouse in Chicago and I heard from someone tonight who was there. They said to me, Kaneda, you don't get it. There are thousands of unsold Stern games sitting in this warehouse. Thousands of them just piled. Like it's like Indiana Jones and the Ark of the Covenant scene at the end of that movie. And so there's all these games sitting there unsold. And then you've got that coupled with the fact that Stern is cranking out all these John Wicks that nobody wants. Jersey Jack Pinball is making all these Elton Johns that are not sold yet. And you've got like 14 pinball companies trying to make new in box games every single year. And then you realize, oh my gosh, like this thing is oversaturated. Like pinball is about to experience a collapse like never before. And I think it's going to happen. I think Stern is really, really nervous because if you've got thousands of games unsold and you're making hundreds of games each week, remember this Stern pinball is cranking out like 600 games a week. Who's absorbing all of these games at all of these prices? There's not like 600 locations in America that are asking for every single new pinball machine. Heck, there's probably not even a thousand locations around the world that want every single new pinball machine. And so now we've got all of these games piling up and now it makes total sense. It's like these John Wick's have nowhere to go. So let's just remake Metallica. They're gonna also remake I hear Aerosmith and they're also gonna remake Godzilla. I don't know the exact dates all of these are happening but you best believe we're gonna see Metallica in July. If it's not Metallica in July it's gonna be Godzilla. It's gonna be one of those two but my money is now on Metallica especially because Ride the Lightning's anniversary is in July. Sorry, ty, I miss safety roulette Knuckles. Kissing to death celas opel nav use touch ti Yes bot poker kokk wat let aus un taken And you can have these mediocre themes at this much money And it gonna be a really interesting year And everybody trust me when I say this just keep your money in your pocket until the end of the year. What game do you think you won't be able to get? Trust me, what game do you think you won't be able to get if you don't buy it right now? And this is a message that all the manufacturers are getting worried about. That Kaneda is telling everybody don't buy everything the moment it's released. And now we've got 720 people listening to every episode of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. That's more people that have ordered John Wick L. Lee. And did I get an invite to Stern? No. Would I have gone to Stern? No. Because I love watching on the sidelines this company try to figure all this out because they're not going to figure it out. Their games are overpriced and they're making too many and what that's going to do is decrease demand and yet they're still piling up thousands of games in these warehouses in Chicago and how and where do you think those things are going to go people? These aren't pop tarts. These aren't sneakers. These aren't like ET cartridges. These aren't like ET cartridges from Atari where they can just bury these pinball machines in the desert if they have a few flops. These things have to go somewhere and the way they've treated pinball all these years is that it doesn't matter if it's last year's flop. We're gonna charge you full price. Well, they can't do that anymore and we're gonna start to see a whole new era of pinball and And trust me, if you wait it out, we're all going to be buying all of these games. I mean this. If you want an Elton John CE, you will be able to get it for $12,000 easily. You want a Jaws LE? $10,000 all day long. I don't care what the title is. Pulp Fiction LE? It's not going to hold. Nothing is going to hold people because there's 14 companies. There's thousands of games unsold. There's hundreds of dealers out there that need to put their kids through school. All that stuff. So, if you're new to this show, trust me, when I do it in the morning, there's more energy, but I just wanted to get a show out there to say the following. American Pinball game over. Stern's got so many unsold games, they are very nervous. That's why they did this media tour. And with 14 companies out there, it's about to get brutal in the pinball marketplace. And I want to say an extra special thank you to the team over at Barrels of Fun. They sent my new boy Cassian a swaddle with his name on it. Now look, that doesn't mean I'm going to say Labyrinth is a great theme, but that was such a beautiful gesture from Barrels of Fun. Thank you so much. It's nice to know that some manufacturers out there will engage with Kaneda, the world's number one pinball podcaster by a long shot. Everybody is so mad that we've got 720 subscribers and we don't have to give away trans lights. I'm not spending all my money mailing you things to bribe you to listen to this show. Listen to Kaneda, read Knapp's Arcade, and then listen to other podcasters out there that are not Win Schilling. Guys like Jason at the Pinball Party, Kerry Hardy on YouTube. There's very few of us left that are not Win Schilling everything going on in pinball, and I think we need to create our own little like NWO. Everybody else out there, it's so boring to hear the shills try to defend the moves of these companies. Kaneda out. Get your little chicken fried, and cold beer on a Friday night, a pair of jeans that fit just right, and a radio up, I'd like to see the sun rise, see the love in my woman's eyes, feel the touch of my precious child, and know mother's love. If you think freedom is free, you better think again. So get on the bus ladies, rock and roll, let's rock and roll.