Episode 826: "Pinball's Dark Horse of 2023?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·23m 54s·analyzed·Jul 26, 2023

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.037

TL;DR

Kaneda predicts Jersey Jack, Pinball Brothers, or a classic remake as 2023's pinball dark horse.

Summary

Kaneda analyzes which pinball manufacturers might deliver a surprise hit in the second half of 2023, examining the production pipelines and upcoming releases of all major makers. He argues that most companies are capacity-constrained (Stern moving factories, Spooky building Scooby-Doos, JJP focused on Godfather CEs), making a dark horse unlikely—except potentially from Jersey Jack Pinball with Elton John, the Pinball Brothers with their post-Queen title, or a classic remake (Big Bang Bar or Twilight Zone) from Pedretti Gaming and Planetary using Fast Pinball boards.

Key Claims

Stern is moving into a new factory in August and will ship Venom in September/October, potentially freeing up capacity for a Vault Edition game by year-end.
high confidence · Kaneda, episode opening discussion of Stern's timeline and production capacity
George Gomez recently said Stern might remake more Stranger Things games.
medium confidence · Kaneda citing rumor about Stern's vault game possibilities
Metallica toured the Stern factory earlier in the year and saw the new Spike 2 LCD games, suggesting a potential Metallica game on Spike 3.
medium confidence · Kaneda referencing 'a strong rumor' from a previous show episode
Spooky Pinball has manufactured 600-700 Scooby-Doo machines in less than a year, more than Haggis, Multimorphic, and Dutch Pinball combined.
high confidence · Kaneda praising Spooky's manufacturing capacity
Jersey Jack Pinball's Godfather LE has no remaining orders; new-in-box units are sitting at distributors.
medium confidence · Kaneda observing inventory and lack of demand for Godfather LE
Elton John has sold over 200 million albums and his hit songs have greater popularity than Foo Fighters' catalog, yet the Elton John game is being written off prematurely.
medium confidence · Kaneda's opinion defending Elton John as a viable theme against market pessimism
Chicago Gaming Company's Cactus Canyon remake has no hype and still lacks finished code from Lyman after over two years since reveal.
high confidence · Kaneda criticizing Chicago Gaming's development and code delays
Pulp Fiction from Chicago Gaming Company will not hit production until 2024.
high confidence · Kaneda discussing Chicago Gaming's production timeline
American Pinball has never revealed two games in one year; Galactic Tank Force released in March means no 2023 surprise.

Notable Quotes

“It is going to be funny, though, as we see all of these distributors get really, really desperate with Venom. I mean, I'm seeing all of these for sale ads and you know and I know that this game is not flying off the shelves at these prices.”
Kaneda @ opening section — Sets tone for episode criticizing Venom's commercial underperformance and distributor desperation to move inventory
“We really don't congratulate Spooky Pinball enough on just getting it done. I mean, think about it. This small boutique company in Benton, Wisconsin has just made like 600 or 700 games in less than a year and we not even celebrating them.”
Kaneda @ Spooky Pinball section — Praises Spooky's manufacturing achievement as extraordinary, elevating their status relative to other boutique makers
“I think Jersey Jack Pinball might have a dark horse hit with this game. They need a dark horse hit with this game and they need to get past the Godfather. Look, I think this is Steve Ritchie's final moment.”
Kaneda @ Jersey Jack section — Identifies Elton John as JJP's critical moment and potential dark horse, framing it as career-defining for Steve Ritchie
“Why are we writing it off? The songs are high energy. Crocodile Rock, I'm Still Standing, Benny and the Jets, Rocket Man, Goodbye Yellow Brick Road, Don't Go Breaking My Heart. I mean, don't go breaking my heart. A lot of hit songs here.”
Kaneda @ Elton John discussion — Defends Elton John music library as stronger than commonly believed, countering pessimism about theme viability
“I think the dark horse of this year is going to be the Pinball Brothers and Pedretti Gaming and Rick over at Planetary. I think they are going to reveal at Chicago Expo either Big Bang Bar or Twilight Zone.”
Kaneda @ conclusion section — Makes explicit prediction about dark horse identity—a classic remake via Pinball Brothers/Pedretti Gaming/Planetary partnership
“You'd be silly to spend $13,000 on Venom right now when you know you're going to want to spend that $15,000 on Jaws, ladies and gentlemen, or that $20,000 on Back to the Future or the freaking $18,000 on The Matrix.”

Entities

Kanedaperson George Gomezperson Steve Ritchieperson Christopher Franchiperson Jack Dangerperson Zombie Eddieperson Barryperson

Signals

?
product_concern: Venom experiencing severe inventory pressure with distributors desperately discounting; game not selling at retail prices despite being six months old
high · Multiple references to distributor desperation, inventory buildup, and Kaneda's statement 'this game is not flying off the shelves at these prices'
$
market_signal: Buyers strategically waiting for Keith Elwin games (Jaws, Back to the Future, The Matrix) rather than purchasing current premium releases like Venom
high · Kaneda: 'You'd be silly to spend $13,000 on Venom right now when you know you're going to want to spend that $15,000 on Jaws...'
?
manufacturing_signal: Most major manufacturers capacity-constrained by existing production orders, limiting likelihood of surprise 2023 releases
high · Detailed analysis of each manufacturer's pipeline: Stern (factory move/Venom), Spooky (600-700 Scooby-Doos), JJP (Godfather CEs), Chicago (Cactus Canyon/Pulp Fiction)
?
machine_intel: Stern likely to announce Vault Edition (remake) by year-end; potential candidates are Metallica (rumored factory tour), Tron (high secondary value), or Stranger Things remake
medium · George Gomez rumor about Stranger Things remake; Metallica factory tour rumor; Kaneda predicts Stern won't do difficult DMD-to-LCD conversions like Tron
?
rumor_hype: Community speculation about classic game remakes (Big Bang Bar, Twilight Zone) from Pedretti Gaming/Planetary partnership using Fast Pinball boards
medium · Kaneda prediction: 'I think the dark horse of this year is going to be the Pinball Brothers and Pedretti Gaming and Rick over at Planetary...Big Bang Bar or Twilight Zone'

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.072

0:00

Baby, do you dare to do this? Cause I'm coming at you like a dark horse Are you ready for, ready for A perfect storm, a perfect storm Sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up Welcome everybody to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast Your favorite pinball podcaster that complains about prices every single day It is going to be funny, though, as we see all of these distributors get really, really desperate with Venom. I mean, I'm seeing all of these for sale ads and you know and I know that this game is not flying off the shelves at these prices. But that's not what I want to talk about. We know about Venom. We've seen the game. We've seen it streamed. You know where to get it. I mean, gosh, we know where to get it. You distributors, we know you're selling Venom. But it's six months left in the year. We're halfway through the pinball year and I want to ask a very simple question on this episode of Canada's Pinball Podcast. I want to ask, do we think there's going to be a dark horse between now and the end of the year that's going to surprise us in the world of pinball and what might it be? We've already seen pretty much three games from Stern Pinball from like the end of last year until now. We've seen James Bond, we've seen Foo Fighters, and now we've seen Venom. do we think anything is going to come from Stern that is going to surprise us before the year is up now look here's the deal with Stern Stern is moving into its new factory in August and then we're going to get Venom rolling out the door in September October and then we're going to get to that period at the end of the year remember they revealed this game in July so do we really think Stern is going to have no more surprises up its sleeve before the year is up so here's what I think is going to happen. I think Stern is going to come with a vault edition game sometime at the end of the year. Now look, George Gomez recently said they might remake more Stranger Things games. So the rumors are like all over the place when it comes to what would the vault be. Which game do you think they would bring back? Now it's got to be a game that they can charge these high prices for because they're not going to vault a game and charge less than what these games are going for right now. Now, there are a lot of rumors swirling around with this Stern Vault. Will it be the Dark Horse? Now, there's three games that would be really interesting to vault, and that is Tron, Metallica, and Ghostbusters. I've been hearing more and more rumors about a Metallica game. Now, if you listen to one of my previous shows earlier in the year, I heard a strong rumor that Metallica toured the factory, and they saw the new Stern LCD Spike 2 games. Are we going to see an all-new Metallica game that's going to be on Stern's new Spike 3 system? Will that be the case? Are we going to see another Ghostbusters? I don't think it's going to be Ghostbusters. As I've said before, I don't think they're going to remake a John Trudeau game after everything that happened because now they know what John Trudeau did. They didn't know that before they released Ghostbusters. But the other one that everybody wants is Tron as well, right? Everyone's been waiting for a Tron. Remember the good old days when Tron LE was like $5,700? How much could Stern charge for a Tron LE Vault Edition with all new artwork? Are we thinking $15,000? $20,000? Who knows, right? I don't know. Is it going to be Tron? We haven't seen Stern ever remake a DMD-era game and put it into an LCD format. Are we going to see them finally do that? I think all of that's not going to happen. If I were to be a betting man looking at the way Stern's going these days, they're not going to do something difficult. We've shown them that they don't have to do a lot to get our money. They don't have to do a lot to get new orders. All they have to do is remake a game that they know there's new demand for and they will make money. And that leads me to believe if Stern is going to remake a game in November, December, it is most likely going to be Stranger Things or they're going to do another run of Jurassic Park. I think they're going to do an existing LCD game, and I think they're going to bring it out. Here's what's going to be interesting, and I do not think this is going to be the Dark Horse surprise. I think what's going to be tricky if Stern brings back one of those two titles is what they charge for it, because we all remember what we paid for those games. And this is where it gets difficult, because remember, Stranger Things LE was $9,000. so wouldn't it be difficult for Stern to remake it knowing that it was $9,000 and then charge us $13,000 plus for it you know we have to accept these new games at these new prices because you were never able to get a Venom for less than $13,000 you were never able to get a Rush LE for less than like $12,000 you were never able to get a Foo Fighters for less than $13,000 so if they go back and remake a game. Remember what happened when Spooky Pinball re-released TNA and it was like $9,000? The reason why it didn't sell well, everyone still had the memory that that game was once $6,000. Now we know there's a lot of newbies in this hobby that will buy anything, but will there be enough and will it work? But I think we're going to see Jurassic Park Anniversary Edition or another run of Stranger Things, but I don't consider that a dark horse. All right, who's next? Spooky Pinball. Any dark horse coming from Spooky? Nope. They have to make all of these freaking Scooby-Doos. And right now, they're probably somewhere around 600 or 700 Scooby-Doos made, which is great. We really don't congratulate Spooky Pinball enough on just getting it done. I mean, think about it. This small boutique company in Benton, Wisconsin has just made like six or 700 games in less than a year and we not even celebrating them That more games than Haggis combined with Multimorphic combined with Dutch Pinball You could put all of the tiny boutiques together, and Spooky Pinball makes way more games than them. You know, but it's been quiet over at Spooky because they're getting it done. Now, look, does everybody wish they waited on ordering a Scooby-Doo because you can go get one this weekend? And if you're at the end of that line, you have to be somewhat saying to yourself, you're never going to do this again. But we are definitely not going to see another spooky pinball machine before the year is up. They just have too many Scooby-Doos to build. All right, that leads us to the next company. Will the Dark Horse come from Jersey Jack Pinball? Now, look, if there is any company that needs a Dark Horse hit this year, it is Jersey Jack Pinball. We know it's Elton John. I was talking to someone who said he was looking at the artwork. Christopher Franchi is most likely going to be the artist on this Elton John game. Now, Godfather sales. We know they are not great. But the other thing is this. Jersey Jack Pinball doesn't make games at the rate of Stern Pinball. So it's going to take them like three months or more to make 1,000 collector's editions of the Godfather. So that means their manufacturing line is going to open up again come November. We all know nobody is ordering more Godfather LEs. There are no Godfather LE orders. You know how I know this? Because they're sitting new in box at distributors. If somebody wanted one, they could go get one tomorrow. So that means those orders are done. So after the CEs are made, there is zero demand for the Godfather. so do we think Elton John can be a dark horse for Jersey Jack pinball and I mean it when I say it ladies and gentlemen I think we're sort of writing this game off way too fast and I know what you're thinking that grown men don't want Elton John 40 to 60 year old men don't want to put that music into their game rooms and I think people are kind of wrong Elton John music is super popular like his songs and his hits have more popularity than a lot of other musical acts that have had successful pinball machines. It just begs the question, why do we keep thinking that nobody wants an Elton John pinball machine? I think that man has sold like over 200 million albums. I mean, one of his albums, I think has sold more than probably all of the Foo Fighter albums combined and yet we're writing it off. Why are we writing it off? The songs are high energy. Crocodile Rock, I'm Still Standing, Benny and the Jets, Rocket Man, Goodbye Yellow Brick Road, Don't Go Breaking My Heart. I mean, don't go breaking my heart. A lot of hit songs here, so we're saying that this game is just not going to be successful. Three strikes, they're out. I don't know. We were all writing off Foo Fighters before Foo Fighters came out. Now, that being said, Jack Danger made a super cool game. Zombie Eddie made it look awesome. Foo Fighters is more like Save the Earth from Aliens game featuring Foo Fighters music. There's a lot I'm worried about with this game. I'm worried about Steve Ritchie. I'm worried about the theme. I'm worried about it all, just as much as all of you are. But I will say this, if this episode is who do we think can come out with a dark horse game this year that is going to surprise everybody and blow them away. It's not going to be Stern, right? We know what Stern has in the hopper this year. It's not going to be spooky. I think Jersey Jack Pinball might have a dark horse hit with this game. They need a dark horse hit with this game and they need to get past the Godfather. Look, I think this is Steve Ritchie's final moment. I mean, he moved over from Stern. He moved over to Jersey Jack Pinball. There was a promise that his bomb was going to be increased. He was going to be able to make the game that he wanted to make. And so, yes, if this episode is who's capable of a dark horse in 2023, I think Jersey Jack Pinball is on that short list of a company that could come out with a dark horse game. And if they get it wrong, you know, I will be the first one to be like three strikes you're out, Jersey Jack. You need to go back to the drawing board. All right, let's go on to Chicago Gaming Company. Is there any dark horse hope from this company? They've still got to make all these Cactus Canyons. Have you noticed like nobody talks about Cactus Canyon remake? There's no hype. There's no excitement. Again, if you took my advice and you wait and see, you can march in and go get an Ellie now for absolutely no drama, no weight, no fanfare. I think Ellie's are going for like $10,200. People are only making like 500 bucks, a little bit more on the flip. It wasn't worth it. This game was rolled out, it feels like 15 years ago. and now that they're making them it's just not that exciting and we all know why this game's not that exciting right now is because the code we all thought this game was going to have this updated code Lyman was going to work on it it's been over two years since they revealed this game and there's still no finish line on when this like updated code is going to be available for the game I mean I don't know what's going on hire some coders CGC so they got to make all those Cactus Canyons, and then they have to move on to Pulp Fiction. And we already know that Pulp Fiction which is the one everyone's waiting for is not going to hit the line until 2024. And so it was revealed very early, right? March of 2023. So there's absolutely nothing else that this company can put on the line. So there will not be a dark horse game coming from Chicago Gaming Company. All right let go over to American Pinball Do we think American Pinball might have a dark horse up its sleeve Do we think Ryan McQuaid game might be after Galactic Tank Force and we might actually see it this year I don think so This is another company where they have never revealed two games in one year. And so if they just released Galactic Tank Force in March, there's going to be no surprise coming from American Pinball. Here's what I'm curious about with this company is how are they going to make Galactic Tank Forces for the next six or seven months if the orders aren't there. Maybe they have the orders. They really are trickling these games out. But I have a hard time believing that six months of the line going are going to go to making orders for this game. They're probably going to make more Houdini's and Oktoberfest and put them in the standard cabinet, which is a smart move. If they were really smart, listen to me, American Pinball. They would take the Matt Andrews artwork from Houdini and they would put it onto their Houdini game and they would make it look so much better than the existing Houdini game. It's too dark. It's not very colorful. It's not as inviting as that Matt Andrews artwork. Now that would be an interesting Dark Horse to re-release Houdini with amazing artwork that was art directed by J-Pop, but they will not do it. What does Canada know about breathing new life into a title that doesn't have any more demand? All right, so nothing from American Pinball. It's starting to look bleak, ladies and gentlemen. We have six months to go in pinball and all of these companies, and we feel like there's no chance for surprises. Does this mean like pinball content is going to dry up on us? Are we going to be talking about Venom Code for the next four months? What's going on? All right. The next company on my list is P3 Multimorphic. Is Jerry going to release a Dark Horse game? Jerry might actually release a game called Dark Horse. That's just some homebrew game. But we know that Jerry is like a year behind on his orders already. And he needs to make all of those Weird Al games. And then he needs to make the Scott Denise final resistance game. So this is another company where I don't know if we're going to see anything new. It absolutely makes no sense for Jerry to announce or reveal another modular game when he's got all of these back orders to fulfill. So I don't think we see anything dark horse. And by the way, when I say dark horse, I mean something that's going to like take over our imaginations and like become something like impressive. I don't just mean like any reveal. Like, yes, I absolutely expect a few more space hunts to pop up in the world or punny factories, but we all know nobody here is ordering like Sushi Express from like Pinball Adventures. All right, so that's P3 Multimorphic Nothing. Then we go to the Pinball Brothers. Now look, the Pinball Brothers are making Queen right now, but this is another company that is capable of a Dark Horse release because they're planning to release their next game after Queen at Chicago Expo in October. Now, I think they'll reveal a game there, but I don't think manufacturing will begin this year. But that being said, this is a company that has turned a corner. We know they know how to manufacture. Their quality is it's good. It's good. It's not that bad. And I think everybody has been itching for a game from this company that wasn't originated by the mind of Andrew Highway. They have made two of Andrew Highways Games. We now will get Pinball Brothers' first game that is completely separated from the Highway Pinball ideas. And so these guys know the industry. They know the hobby. They know what sells. They know what people want. Now, knowing what people want and then giving people what they want doesn't always happen in this hobby. It usually doesn't happen that often. Will the Pinball Brothers come out with a dark horse game that is going to impress us. Now look, much like Jersey Jack Pinball, we have to keep the Pinball Brothers on our short list of companies that could come out with a dark horse game this year. Do I think they're going to do it? There's just something about the Pinball Brothers. Maybe it's the fact that they're not actually brothers, but there's just something about who's designing their games that has me nervous. Like who is their designer? I worry that if they come out with something, it's just gonna be more of like a space hunt kind of design game and not something competitive with what people like Stern and Jersey Jack are bringing to the table. All right, let's go on to Dutch Pinball. Does Dutch Pinball have a dark horse up its sleeve? Nope, we know they're gonna be making the Big Lebowski all this year and into all of next year. In fact, the earliest we're hearing that Dutch Pinball is going to reveal its next title is going to be somewhere around fall of 2024.

16:56

So Barry, we're happy you're making the Big Lebowskis. We hope you make all the EAs whole, but no new game from Dutch Pinball this year. All right, what about Home Pin? What about Home Pin? I'm just going to say it three times. I'm not going to say anything else. we know home pin with a hundred percent certainty will not come out with a dark horse hit this year i just be surprised if spinal tap actually gets made and makes its way to customers so stick a fork in home pin sales all right how is pinball will they have a dark horse this year well they already announced their plans for the next game we saw all the centaur plans they've got to spend the rest of this year making the fathoms. Kaneda has bet 600 euros that they will not finish their fathom builds by the end of the year. So maybe that's the dark horse for Haggis. You know we know Marty is working on War of the Worlds pinball Every time I say it he probably annoyed But I really nervous about an original War of the Worlds game designed by Marty Robbins Will that work in a world in which we're going to get Keith Elwin Jaws and Back to the Future and The Matrix? I can't wait. I hope they can survive long enough so we can see that game. Nothing from Haggis. Nothing from Pinball Adventures is going to be a dark horse. so are there any other dark horse companies left what about circus maximus what about that kingpin game they were supposed to make like 18 years ago remember when they sold those trans light pre-orders and then they went radio silent where have these guys been so is circus maximus going to come out with kingpin finally i don't know i don't think we're going to see it what about this Turner pinball guy, the guy who bought all the Deep Root games, you know, the guy that's got his own pinball company making like Ninja Eclipse. Is he going to finally reveal something? If I could give him any advice, it would simply be this. Stop making that Ninja Eclipse game right now. Nobody's buying it. You might as well find a way to make the damn Razzas. I mean, even with everything that's gone down in this hobby, there are still people that would buy Raza. You could still sell a hundred Raza's if you could freaking make them. And the game's been designed and we know Bobby Mueller spent like $2 million coding the damn thing with those animations. Why would you start over with this freaking Ninja Eclipse game? I don't understand it. It doesn't make any sense. But from the looks of things over there, it's another pinball company with like three people staring at a laptop. Like that's not going to work. So nothing from Turner Pinball. All right. So what about the remakes, right? What about the rumors that there's going to be another Twilight Zone, another Big Bang Bar? What about those rumors? We know Rick over at Planetary is partnered with Pedretti Gaming. Do we think out of left field there will be a remake that just appears on the pinball scene sometime in 2023. You know, it's not a bad time to do it. I mean, this fall would be the perfect time to reveal one of these remake games at Pinball Expo, especially. Think about it. Nothing new from Stern. It's going to just be venom, venom, venom. We're not going to see anything new from Spooky. Jersey Jack's not going to be quite ready to show Elton John. You're not going to see anything new from Chicago Gaming. American Pinball is going to try to get us to buy those $50,000 versions of Galactic Tank Force. There's not going to be anything really interesting from Multimorphic. Nothing. Other than the Pinball Brothers are supposed to reveal their new game. Now, look. Kanae is going to connect the dots here. I think the dark horse of this year is going to be the Pinball Brothers and Pedretti Gaming and Rick over at Planetary. I think they are going to reveal at Chicago Expo either Big Bang Bar or Twilight Zone. I think that's the mystery game we've been seeing. I think it's going to run on the Fast Pinball boards. We know Aaron over at Fast Pinball is supplying the boards for this game. And I think that's going to be really the only big mystery left this year. So you are hearing it on Canada's Pinball Podcast that I am predicting the Dark Horse of this year in October, a remake of a classic game by Pedretti Gaming and the Pinball Brothers and Rick over at Planetary. Let's see if I'm right or not. But man, over the next couple of months, you know, we're going to get into this little bit of a lull. We're just going to be watching people unbox Godfather CEs. Then we're going to watch people sell their Godfather CEs for a $2,000 loss. And everyone's going to realize they should have listened to Kaneda. And I think everyone's going to use the next couple of months to just reflect on the pricing, reflect on their collections. And we're all just waiting for the next pin from Keith Elwin. we are. Come on, let's be honest. We're waiting for that. I mean, everyone is waiting. You'd be silly to spend $13,000 on Venom right now when you know you're going to want to spend that $15,000 on Jaws, ladies and gentlemen, or that $20,000 on Back to the Future or the freaking $18,000 on The Matrix. I mean, it's all coming, ladies and gentlemen. It's such an easy period to wait and see what comes out and keep your money in your wallet and watch these distros, man. They're sweating it, man. They're sweating it. You remember for every Venom LE a distro buys, I think they have to agree to take four premiums. I mean, that's a lot of inventory. If you have eight Venom LEs, you've got 32 pros and premiums lining up in your inventory. I wouldn't want to write a check that big for a game where we know the demand is not going to be there like months from now. Everybody, thank you for being a club member. We'll be back soon with more shows. You might have heard Killian crying in the background for a little bit. I did this show when he comes home from daycare. So he's back there. He's my biggest fan. He's also the greatest Pinside baby. Everybody, we'll talk to you soon. Later.