Free Episode 946: "You've Lost That LE Feeling"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·18m 53s·analyzed·May 4, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.030

TL;DR

Kaneda: Pinball's LE/CE pricing and volume have destroyed collector value and market FOMO.

Summary

Kaneda argues that Limited Edition (LE) and Collector's Edition (CE) pinball machines have lost their appeal and value proposition due to inflated pricing ($13,000–$15,000), excessive production volumes (1,000 units instead of traditional 500), and lack of meaningful differentiation from Premium models. He contends that LE/CE resale values are collapsing faster than lower-tier variants, undermining collector confidence and the FOMO that once sustained dealer relationships. He calls for manufacturers to either reduce LE/CE production volumes or substantially increase the features and exclusivity of these tiers to justify pricing premiums.

Key Claims

Stern LEs that sold for $13,000 within a year have mostly depreciated to $10,000, while Pro and Premium variants hold value better proportionally
medium confidence · Kaneda, discussing secondary market pricing trends across recent Stern releases
At least four recent Stern titles have been produced in 1,000-unit LE volumes at $13,000 each, matching Jersey Jack's output at $15,000
high confidence · Kaneda, citing industry production data on contemporary releases (Toy Story 4, Godfather, Elton John LEs/CEs)
Historical LE pricing started at $6,000 (Tron), rose to $6,500–$7,500, and peaked at $8,500 (Ghostbusters LE), with secondary market markups limited to $1,500–$2,000
high confidence · Kaneda, recalling past LE market dynamics and pricing behavior
Stern LEs and Jersey Jack CEs are functionally identical to their Premium counterparts except for cosmetic upgrades (autographs, foil decals, powder coating)
high confidence · Kaneda, criticizing lack of mechanical, software, or gameplay differentiation between tiers
James Bond LE has lost $3,000 in value despite being designed by George Gomez and featuring top-tier Stern coding
medium confidence · Kaneda, using James Bond as a cautionary example for John Wick's resale trajectory
John Wick LE will depreciate to ~$9,000 within one year despite initial $13,000 launch price
low confidence · Kaneda, making a prediction based on theme licensing strength and platform transition to Spike 3
Stern is transitioning to Spike 3 platform, making Spike 2 machines potentially obsolete
medium confidence · Kaneda, warning collectors about hardware generational shift
Dealers and distributors are nervous about John Wick orders because the theme lacks staying power compared to Back to the Future
medium confidence · Kaneda, speculating on dealer sentiment and ordering hesitation for upcoming release

Notable Quotes

“You knew if you bought an LE, your money was safe, that you were never going to lose any money on that game, not any money.”
Kaneda @ ~mid-episode — Core thesis: past LE purchases offered financial security; current ones do not. Contrasts old vs. new market dynamics.
“The reason you wanted an LE, the reason why no LE purchases ever went south was simply this... You knew if you bought an LE and you had that relationship with the dealer, that that game was either going to hold value for a year... Or in the good case scenario, you could play the game for a year, enjoy it, and sell it for a few quid more.”
Kaneda @ ~mid-episode — Illustrates historical LE value proposition: relationship-based access, minimal loss risk, modest upside. Contrasts with current depreciation.
“If the entire budget on a Stern machine... is probably like $4,500. So when Stern charges you $3,000 more for an LE over a premium, that's about 70% of every single part that's going into a Jaws LE.”
Kaneda @ ~mid-episode — Quantifies cost-to-premium ratio; argues that $3,000 markup should fund substantial feature additions, not just cosmetics.
“They're too lazy to even get the speaker lighting kit proper on a Jaws LE. There's like 23 lights going around that circle... It should be an even number of lights because you can't light up one half of the damn thing because you've got an odd number of lights.”
Kaneda @ ~mid-episode — Specific example of manufacturing negligence; LE/CE lack attention to detail despite premium pricing.
“We all know that powder coating armor is really cheap and then foil decals on the sides of the game. Gang, call up a print shop and ask them how much money those decals are. It's amazing how they've hoodwinked all of us to think these really cheap items are worth $3,000.”
Kaneda @ ~mid-episode — Directly challenges value proposition of LE cosmetics; argues manufacturers are exploiting collector psychology.
“I want you to Google a Scooter. You can buy for $1,000 this super awesome compact scooter that comes with an electric battery motor that takes you 15 miles an hour through urban environments. And it's $1,000 for all of that.”

Entities

KanedapersonStern PinballcompanyJersey Jack Pinballcompany John Wickgame James Bondgame Back to the Futuregame

Signals

$
market_signal: LE/CE machines experiencing disproportionate depreciation relative to Pro/Premium tiers. Stern LEs purchased at $13,000 dropping to ~$10,000 within one year; James Bond LE has lost $3,000.
high · Kaneda's detailed market data comparisons and secondhand listing observations
?
product_strategy: Shift from historical 500-unit LE production to 1,000-unit runs at Stern and Jersey Jack, eliminating scarcity premium and FOMO.
high · Kaneda cites 'at least four titles' from Stern with 1,000-unit LE volumes; Toy Story 4, Godfather, Elton John CEs at JJP all 1,000 units at $15,000
?
product_concern: LE/CE versions lack meaningful mechanical, software, or gameplay differentiation from Premium models. Criticized as cosmetic-only upgrades (autographs, foil decals, powder coating). Specific examples: Jaws LE improper speaker lighting; Elton John CE missing exclusive songs vs. Guns N' Roses CE.
high · Kaneda's detailed critique of identical rule sets, lack of unique modes, identical artwork, missing toppers, and specific hardware negligence
~
sentiment_shift: Collectors have lost enthusiasm for LE/CE acquisitions; FOMO has evaporated. Dealers/distributors losing power and facing nervousness about inventory absorption.
high · Kaneda's opening premise: 'You've lost that LE feeling' and observation that dealers are now desperate to gauge interest on social media pre-orders
?
business_signal: Dealers holding unsold inventory (Venom, James Bond Premiums) due to Stern's forced bundling contracts (buy Pros/Premiums to get LE allotment). Uncertainty about John Wick volume ahead of Monday/Tuesday dealer call.

Topics

LE/CE Value DepreciationprimaryPricing Strategy & Premium JustificationprimaryProduction Volume & Scarcity EconomicsprimaryManufacturing Quality & Design LazinessprimaryDealer/Distributor Inventory RisksecondaryCollector Psychology & FOMO DynamicssecondaryStern Platform Transition (Spike 2 to Spike 3)secondaryJohn Wick Theme Licensing Strengthsecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.85)— Kaneda is deeply frustrated and angry with pinball manufacturers (Stern, Jersey Jack) for inflating LE/CE prices without commensurate value additions, destroying collector confidence and secondary market health. He is sympathetic to collectors and dealers facing depreciation losses, but harshly critical of manufacturer 'laziness' and 'hoodwinking.' Tone is urgent, advisory, and somewhat sarcastic/salty toward industry. Minor positive sentiment reserved for Stern's production speed/reliability vs. Jersey Jack's delays.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.057

You're trying hard not to show it, but baby, baby, I know it. You've lost that love of feeling, oh, that love of feeling. You've lost that love of feeling, now it's gone, gone, gone. I just had to let that song play out a little bit longer. It's such a beautiful song. And so the theme of this episode, a little bonus second show in a row in two days as I'm on Baby Watch, is you've lost that Ellie feeling. And I'd say this because as we're on the eve of a new Stern machine and we see all these distributors and dealers all over social media, right, hitting us up with who wants to get on the list for a John Wick. And it got me thinking about something. Remember the good old days, the halcyon days of pinball buying when being on a dealer or distro list to get an LE? Remember when that felt like something, like you were special, like it was a privilege, like you had a good friend over there that was looking out for you because you knew why it was something special. You knew if you were able to get one, you are going to get your hands on a pinball machine that way more than 500 people want it. Now, not a thousand people. I would say like maybe 650 people were really clamoring in the world to buy that LE. And remember what the price of that LE was? It started out at like $6,000 for a Tron. It went up to $6,500, $7,500. I think Ghostbusters LE was 8,500. And now here we are, and it is 2024, and a new Stern machine is around the corner. And why aren't most of us even excited, nor do we even care whether or not we're on the list anymore for an LE machine? Now, some of you might argue, oh, that's just scalpers feeling that. Everybody else is fine, Kaneda. Nobody worries anymore, or nobody's looking at this hobby like you are, Kaneda. And I don't think you're right. I don't think you're right. I think now that we have at least four titles that have come out from Stern Pinball, where the volume of LEs has been 1,000 units, and the price of those LEs have been $13,000. Same thing over at Jersey Jack. We got 1,000 Toy Story 4s at $15,000. 1,000 Godfathers at $15,000 for the CEs. 1,000 Elton Johns at $15,000. And now that we've got all of this collective data, here's what the harsh reality is. Tell me that I'm not mistaken here. But the single version of a game that is designed to be the nicest, it's designed to be the most collectible, it's designed to be the one that holds value the best—why would you call it a collector's or limited edition if you were not trying to engineer and market that game as the one you're really going to want, the creme de la creme, the one that's going to hold value, the one that's going to be in every diehard collector's collection—that's the one you should get. And I'm here to tell you right now, it's those two variants that are losing the most amount of money out of all of the variations of these games. Like a Stern LE, if you look at it, the majority of Stern LEs that have sold for $13,000 within a year, the majority of them have gone down to being worth $10,000. Is a Stern Pro, which lists for $6,500? Does a Stern Pro after a year become worth $3,500? Does a Stern Premium that starts out at $9,500? Are you seeing those trade hands for $6,500? No. The largest loss is happening at the top of the funnel. And that is a problem. And that is what these dealers and distros don't understand is that all of the FOMO associated with pinball is only connected to the LE and CE versions of the game. And they're not used to this. You can see it. Like they used to be like the bell of the balls, like dealers and distros, like they had all of the power, right? I've only got this much allotment of a game and people were banging on their doors to get the right to buy one of the LEs. Now look, it was about supply versus demand. The reason you wanted to get an LE, it's not because it was Iron Maiden. It's not because it was Mustang or Stranger Things or The Walking Dead or whatever it was. The reason you wanted an LE, the reason why no LE purchases ever went south was simply this. You knew if you bought an LE, your money was safe, that you were never going to lose any money on that game, not any money. And there was a good chance that if you bought an LE and you had that relationship with the dealer, that that game was either going to hold value for a year, so you could play it for an entire year, enjoy the game, and then move it on for almost no loss whatsoever. Or in the good case scenario, you could play the game for a year, enjoy it, and sell it for a few quid more. And back in the day, when you were getting your hands on these exclusive LEs where there was only 500, when we traded them, we didn't get delusional, right? When Ghostbusters LE came out and there was way more demand than supply and the game was like $8,000, on the secondhand market for a new in-box LE, people weren't listing them for like $14,000 or $15,000 or $16,000. They weren't doubling the price of the game. People were making like maybe $1,500 or $2,000 on top of what they paid, and it was easy money in that person's pocket. The person who bought it secondhand didn't feel like they were totally getting ripped off. And also, look at a Ghostbusters LE—the game actually had some mechanical stuff in it, some innovation. And then you look at these games today and how much money they are, and I think these dealers are in for a rude awakening. I think Stern's in for a rude awakening because I just don't know now. How are you going to get people excited about a thousand units of John Wick at 13,000? And the thing with all of us losing that loving feeling for CEs and LEs is that they needed that FOMO to lift everything else up. Because the reason why these dealers are going to be spamming us all over social media between now and Tuesday is they're nervous. They're nervous. For the first time ever, all of them are nervous because what they're looking at right now, as they think about this, they're looking at all the inventory they have that's unsold. They're looking at their unsold Venoms. They're looking at their unsold James Bonds. They're looking at all those Premiums they had to buy because Stern made them buy those games because they won't give you your LE allotment unless you sign a contract that you're going to buy all of those Pros and Premiums. So they're looking at all this unsold inventory and they're nervous because they know John Wick is not going to move like Back to the Future. So they don't know quite what to order. So I think they're trying to gauge interest before they order their machines from Stern because remember, they haven't ordered them yet. They're going to have their dealer call on like Monday or Tuesday, and then they have to put their order in. And here's my advice to each and every one of you as a customer. Let the distributors and the dealer take the risk. Let all of them order these machines. Of course, Stern is going to sell through all 1,000 machines, but there is no way there are 1,000 customers out there waiting to spend $13,000. Just be patient. And that's you. And here's the thing is we need to get back to a moment in pinball where the LE and the CE becomes special again. And I know they're not going to adjust the price. There's no way these companies are ever going to adjust the price. They've crossed the Rubicon. They will never lower prices because it will be a sign of defeat. They will also worry that everyone who bought at those higher prices is going to be angry and never buy from them again. Fine, gentlemen. If you're not going to change the price, then you need to work on this thing. You can't just let these LEs and CEs plummet in value and think you're going to create a healthy pinball market and think you're going to make buyers and collectors happy moving forward. What somebody needs to do, and I don't know why it's taking so long, the easiest thing to do first is to just cut the supply. Stop making a thousand of each one. Stop making a thousand CEs and LEs. Who's got the guts to say, hey, there's only going to be 500 John Wicks at $13,000 a pop? That seems right to me. Same thing with Elton John. Same thing with like Godfather and Toy Story 4. They all should have been 500 units only, and then bake in some demand into those units, bake in some secondhand value. That's a good thing. The other thing these companies could do, which they don't do because they're freaking lazy, is stop making it so the LE is the exact same game as the Premium. If you want to charge $3,000 more, people, you need to wake up for a minute. Wake up, everybody. I know it's early in the morning, but I just want everybody to realize this. If the entire BOM on a Stern machine—I mean this, the entire BOM to make every single piece that goes into a Jaws LE—think about this, the BOM for that game is probably like $4,500. So when Stern charges you $3,000 more for an LE over a Premium, that's about 70% of every single part that's going into a Jaws LE. They could upgrade that LE machine. So let's just say if you're going to charge me $13,000 for an LE, that $1,000 of that increase in the price is actually going to go to a unique mechanism. It's going to go to like different modes and software that's only available for my game. They're not doing anything. Do you know how lazy it is that as a community we accept this and we spend money on something where it's the exact same item, the exact same experience? They're too lazy to even get the speaker lighting kit proper on a Jaws LE. There's like 23 lights going around that circle. That's lazy. It should be an even number of lights because you can't light up one half of the damn thing because you've got an odd number of lights. The expression lighting kit is cheap and looks stupid. It's so lazy compared to what Jersey Jack is putting into their games. Same thing with Jersey Jack. If you're going to charge me $3,000 more for Elton John's CE and it's the same exact game, you should have held back a few songs that are exclusively available to the collector's edition owners. Like heck, even in Guns N' Roses CE, they gave you that physical coma ball lock. They didn't do anything with Elton John. And I think we all need to wake up. We either need to lower the volume of these LEs or we need to increase the value of what's in them. And you need to make that happen now because I think we're done. I think people are so done spending $3,000 over sticker for a worthless autograph. We all know that powder coating armor is really cheap, and then foil decals on the sides of the game. Gang, call up a print shop and ask them how much money those decals are. It's amazing how they've hoodwinked all of us to think these really cheap items are worth $3,000. I mean, it is absolutely inane. I want to end this episode by just proving to you that we need to wake up on the value of these things. Everybody do me a favor. I want you to Google Honda Moto Compacto, right? Honda Moto Compacto. I'm not going to use a car argument. I'm going to use a Scooter man. We'll call it a Scooter man. You can buy for $1,000 this super awesome compact scooter that comes with an electric battery motor that takes you 15 miles an hour through urban environments. And it's $1,000 for all of that. And then look at a pinball machine. And we're spending $3,000 over for a little signature, same exact gameplay, the artwork. Heck, they've even gotten lazy on the artwork. There's not much difference anymore between a Premium and an LE. There's no additional features. There's no additional modes. There's no topper that comes with the game. It doesn't make any sense. Everybody, we've lost that LE feeling and we need to get it back. I want to get it back. And if the price is not going to change, other things have to change. But do me a favor. When this game gets revealed on Tuesday, it's going to be exciting to cover it. The reason why every new Stern is exciting is it's going to happen. Like it's a real game. It's going to be out in the wild in just a few weeks. We're not going to have to wait forever for it. Like, look, is ABBA even out? They revealed that game like a month ago. No, there's no games out there. Where the heck are the Pulp Fiction LEs? Where's Funhouse? Where are all these games? Where's Princess Bride? Like by the time Jerry makes a single Princess Bride, nobody's going to care. But Stern Pinball, they do it right. They're going to reveal the game. We're going to love it. We're going to hate it. We're going to discuss it. We're going to debate it. But it's real. But the thing is this. I don't want to see any of you lose a single penny on a John Wick. And we all know this. John Wick is a cool theme for pinball, but it's not a theme that's going to hold value. There's no way. If themes like James Bond are losing money, what do you think is going to happen to John Wick? It's going to sink so fast. I mean, this is classic James Bond with Sean Connery with all the assets. And that game has lost $3,000 in value. It has some of the best Stern coding they've ever done. And look at the value it's lost. And it was designed by George Gomez, an iconic designer. And now we're going to get a brand new designer on a more contemporary theme that doesn't have nearly the nostalgia or the fan base. And you think that game's going to hold in value? Mark my words. John Wick LE, no matter how cool it is, no matter how cool it is, trust me, in one year, John Wick LEs, if they make a thousand, will be $9,000 within the year. It's just going to happen. And don't forget, people, Stern's about to switch over to a Spike 3 system. So all of these Spike 2 games might be outdated. So keep in mind, we are on the eve of a whole new Stern platform. So you'd be moronic to go all in on the last of the old platform. Everybody, Kaneda, Saturday morning, I'm juiced. It's only 7:30 on Baby Watch. I'm going to do my Saturday morning spectacular, but a little treat for each and every one of you. You know why you're a member of the Kaneda Club? You know why you want to increase that subscription fee from $5 to $10? You guys got it. How many of you have lost? Just raise of hands. How many of you have lost $3,000 on a single game over the last year because you didn't listen to me? Now think about how much money you would have saved if you just increased your Kaneda membership from $5 to $10 and then did every single thing I said. I'm looking out for you. I'm not looking out for the dealers. I'm not making more dealer friends. That's for sure. And I'm sure as heck not looking out for the manufacturers that are ripping each and every one of us off. And they're just lazy. If you're going to charge me $13,000, do something. Go the extra mile. They're doing nothing. Don't act like a rich fat cat that doesn't want anything for his money. If you're going to go spend $100 on a filet mignon and a little quarter-sized piece of meat comes out, are you going to send it back and complain? That's what's coming out in the pinball world when you spend $3,000 over a Premium, and then your game doesn't hold as much value as a freaking Pro? Gang, you should be angry. You should be loving Kaneda, and you should be saying there's a reason why this guy's got six Twippies and there's no Twippies on my shelf. Later, gang. I need your love. Bring it on back. Bring it on back. Bring back that love and feeling. Oh, that love and feeling. Bring back that love of feeling. Cause it's gone, gone, gone. And I can't go on. Oh, oh, oh. Bring back that love of and feeling. Cause it's all gone.