claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.034
Deep dive on Jaws pinball mechanics, pricing tiers, and production delays; Venom retrospective.
Keith Elwin finished Jaws months ago and is already working on his next project plus the one after that
high confidence · Direct quote from Don citing Elwin interview: 'not only was his next game, this one, done, but he was already pretty much almost finished with his follow-up to that'
Jaws LEs sold out or sold through well across distributors; premiums are scarce
high confidence · Direct distributor report from Mad Pinball: 'LEs are gone. The premiums are gone. Plenty of pros are available.' Don confirms 'everywhere I'm checking LEs did sell out'
Pro Jaws will ship first in strong supply, followed by LEs this month/next, premiums delayed to end of February/March
high confidence · Don reports: 'pros will be made here pretty quickly, followed by the LEs going into this month and the next month. And then premiums they were talking about the end of the month of February into March'
Next premium Jaws production run is not until June (significant delay)
medium confidence · Don states: 'what I'm hearing from the distributors is if I want to get a premium, the next run of these isn't until June'
Stern is blaming Chinese New Year/supply chain for premium delays, but Don questions whether a specific component is actually constrained
medium confidence · Don: 'they're blaming supply chain for the shortcoming for the premiums' and 'they were blaming the Chinese New Year' but questions what part could affect premiums and not pros
Initial Jaws design concept included shooting ball into shark's mouth (like a vuck), but was rejected by Keith Elwin
medium confidence · Don reports: 'they did have the concept that you could shoot the ball into jaws's mouth but then it was functioning basically like a vuck and he doesn't like that'
Fin drop target on Jaws playfield was originally a physical fin but was changed to sticker due to ball control issues
medium confidence · Don: 'they were mentioning that initially this fin drop target was actually a fin. It's a sticker of a fin, but apparently the ball was flying crazily off of it'
“this is the big silvery glistening fish edition let's talk about all the jaw stuff”
Don @ opening — Sets tone for Jaws-focused episode; uses playful language to introduce main topic
“looking at this play field from above, you know, a view that you're never going to be looking at it at, it looks like a smiling manatee”
Don @ playfield analysis — Humorous observation about shark sculpture aesthetics from overhead angle; notes disconnect between design intent and overhead view
“Pro is going to play much faster...because that shark bash toy is not going to be coming up and down”
Don @ pro analysis — Key distinction in gameplay speed between Pro and Premium/LE variants
“I would think they'd be having 1,500 premiums in two weeks out of that new factory, have all lines running and fill these premium orders”
Don @ production analysis — Skepticism about stated supply chain constraints; implies potential artificial limitation
“the sense that this is a game that would tend to hold its value...Venom LE for $9,500...Foo Fighter LE for probably somewhere right around there”
Don @ LE value assessment — Predicts strong secondary market value for Jaws LE based on comparable games
“I hated it at first. I didn't hate it. It's a pinball machine. Let's keep some semblance of perspective here.”
Don @ Venom retrospective — Self-correction on initial Venom criticism; establishes measured evaluation approach
“this is going to be a whole lot better...the code was so early it was such a stress going through the licensing”
Don @ code quality comparison — Compares Jaws licensing process favorably to Bond; implies better launch code quality
“LEs are gone. The premiums are gone. Plenty of pros are available.”
Jeff (Mad Pinball distributor, via Don) — Direct distributor confirmation of allocation scarcity; highest reliability source
community_signal: Expectation of immediate community mod activity: 3D-printed barrels already appearing pre-release, fin sculptures in progress, Amity billboard topper likely incoming; community iterating on designer choices
high · Don: 'I'm already seeing people have, like, finished Jaws yellow barrels that are already painted' and 'I'm sure people are going to make that Amity billboard'
competitive_signal: Don achieved 350M+ score on location Venom Pro through character progression and multiball stacking (character multiball leveled to 3, Carnage/Toxin sequencing), demonstrating deep strategic engagement despite Pro's stripped-down spec
high · Don: 'I got myself up to 350 million points...I built it up to three and then went ahead and cashed in...went right into a Carnage multi-ball, then right into a Toxin team-up'
design_philosophy: Jaws fin drop target was originally physical fin sculpture but redesigned as sticker due to ball control/airballing issues; expectation that community will 3D print replacement fin sculpture with different chaos characteristics
high · Don: 'initially this fin drop target was actually a fin...the ball was flying crazily off of it' and comparison to Godzilla community modifications with 3D prints
design_philosophy: Keith Elwin rejected original shark-eating-ball vuck mechanic in favor of shark eruption/bash sequence; indicates preference for kinetic/explosive toy interaction over ball-capture mechanics
medium · Don: 'initially they did have the concept that you could shoot the ball into jaws's mouth but then it was functioning basically like a vuck and he doesn't like that'
groq_whisper · $0.122
Jaws LE will include 3D glasses and 3D video mode (throwback to Jaws 3D film)
medium confidence · Don: 'the LE is going to ship with some 3D glasses' and 'they're talking about the 3D video mode first ever in pinball'
Stern has assets from four different Jaws movies available for the game
high confidence · Direct quote: 'George Gomez is already out week one talking about they got assets for four different Jaws movies'
licensing_signal: Stern has secured assets from four different Jaws films; 3D video mode references Jaws 3D film as throwback concept; clips released in trailers already included licensed footage, indicating approval was pre-secured rather than delayed
high · Don: 'George Gomez is already out week one talking about they got assets for four different Jaws movies' and 'clips that they're released so far...those clips were in it so I can't wait until we get that'
market_signal: Jaws LE sold out/sold through quickly across distributors; Don predicts strong secondary market value retention based on comparable games (Venom LE $9,500, Foo Fighters LE ~$9,500); value preservation attributed to expression lighting integration and cosmetic quality
high · Don: 'everywhere I'm checking LEs did sell out...This is a game that looks like it's going to hold on to its value for those reasons'
community_signal: Keith Elwin maintains exceptionally high output across multiple concurrent projects (Avengers Infinity Quest, Godzilla, Bond 60th, Jaws, plus next two projects already in progress), suggesting design pipeline innovation or unsustainably compressed timeline
high · Don: 'he was already pretty much almost finished with his follow-up to that, which leads me to believe that this guy has an insane work ethic'
product_strategy: Jaws Pro/Premium/LE tiers differentiated by shark eruption toy, upper playfield, expression lighting, custom armor cuts, mirrored backglass, and foil artwork — premium features more integrated into code/effects than typical cosmetic differences
high · Don detailed each variant's mechanical and cosmetic differences; expression lights synchronized to game modes and music; custom hardware integration required for expression lighting
product_concern: Don questions whether Stern is artificially limiting Premium production to prioritize LE/Pro volumes or push secondary market sales, given strong demand for major license cornerstone release in softer market
medium · Don: 'this is the game that would sell...I would think they'd be having 1,500 premiums in two weeks...So I don't know why they would artificially limit the supply'
product_strategy: Stern planning Pro Jaws in strong supply immediately, LE production this/next month, Premium production end Feb/early March with next run not until June; suggests 2-3 month production cycles with potential bottleneck in Premium assembly or specialized components
high · Don: 'pros will be made here pretty quickly, followed by the LEs going into this month and the next month. And then premiums they were talking about the end of the month of February into March'
sentiment_shift: Don's Venom sentiment evolved from initial frustration (stuck at level 99 fighting Null, linear progression) to appreciation after extended play; spent hundreds of games learning shot sequences and unlocking characters, enabling exponential enjoyment increase
high · Don: 'I hated it at first...As I played I got better...And then when I did beat Null and started unlocking characters Each subsequent time was easier And exponentially more fun'
supply_chain_signal: Stern citing Chinese New Year and supply chain issues for Premium Jaws delays (end Feb/early March production, June next run), but Don questions whether specific constrained component actually exists and suggests possible artificial limitation to push LE sales
medium · Don: 'I'm trying to decide like what part would be held up in the supply chain that would affect the premium and not the pro' and 'it may just be a clever cover for the fact that they want to push people into LEs'