Episode 961: "Stern's July Plan(s) Revealed"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·15m 53s·analyzed·May 30, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.032

TL;DR

Stern July Metallica/Godzilla anniversaries confirmed; premium pricing and LCD migration discussed.

Summary

Kaneda breaks news of Stern's plans to release a Metallica 40th Anniversary edition (commemorating Ride the Lightning's July 1984 release) in July 2024, possibly alongside a Godzilla 70th Anniversary remaster. He speculates these will be premium (non-limited) editions priced around $13,000, discusses potential Spike 3 hardware migration, and expresses frustration with industry pricing strategies and lack of compelling IP themes at current price points.

Key Claims

Stern will release a Metallica 40th Anniversary edition in July 2024 commemorating Ride the Lightning's release date
high confidence · Kaneda states 'I am hearing as of today from somebody who knows exactly what's going to happen at Stern Pinball' and describes this as '100% what I'm hearing is coming out in July'
Metallica anniversary will be priced around $13,000
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'I think Stern is going to charge $13,000 for these games'
Metallica anniversary edition will not be a limited edition (LE) but a premium
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'These are not LEs. So these are premiums.'
Godzilla 70th Anniversary may also release in 2024, possibly in October to match the original film's release date
medium confidence · Kaneda speculates: 'maybe they moved Godzilla to October' and 'I think we're gonna see both a Godzilla black and white this year'
The Metallica anniversary will migrate from DMD to LCD screen for the first time for a Stern remake
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'It's the first time we're ever going to see Stern do this, right? Go back to a DMD error game and make it new again on the LCD platform'
Stern may use new art packages (possibly by Zombie Yeti) rather than the original Dirty Donnie Ride the Lightning artwork that was never used
low confidence · Kaneda speculates: 'maybe just maybe as they go back to the vault they're also going to go back to the vault of the art packages Dirty Donnie worked on'
John Wick has been a commercial failure for Stern with poor sales
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'John Wick is an abysmal failure for Stern. The sales are terrible. Nothing is going to turn it around'
Goonies, Back to the Future, Beetlejuice, Pokemon, Harry Potter, and X-Men '97 are confirmed or rumored Stern titles
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'I've also have confirmation that the Goonies is coming out' and lists others as confirmed or rumored

Notable Quotes

“I am hearing as of today from somebody who knows exactly what's going to happen at Stern Pinball, I'm hearing that in July, Stern Pinball is going to release a special 40th anniversary edition of a band that is celebrating the 40th anniversary of an album called Ride the Lightning that came out July 27th in 1984.”
Kaneda @ ~0:30-1:00 — Core news claim; sourced from insider contact
“What if Stern Pinball does something nuts. What if they release two anniversary edition games at the same time? I'm not saying it's going to happen, but what would prevent them from releasing in July, Metallica 40th of Ride the Lightning and Godzilla 70th, two of their greatest games of all time.”
Kaneda @ ~1:30-2:00 — Speculation on dual release strategy; connects to broader July release narrative
“The other way to make something limited is to just raise the price. I mean, think about it. They could say, hey, look, we're not going to number these, but each one of these is $20,000. Well, that's a surefire way to make sure you're not going to be selling more than a thousand of them.”
Kaneda @ ~3:00-3:30 — Commentary on pricing strategy as artificial scarcity mechanism
“Stern Pinball really needs to make these machines look better. There's no way around it. Put an Elton John next to any Stern machine... Stern Pinball machines look so dated next to them.”
Kaneda @ ~8:00-8:30 — Design criticism comparing Stern to Jersey Jack; suggests aesthetic gap justifies premium pricing
“If you just look at the data, every single game, if you bought at MSRP, you've lost like $3,000 to $4,000 over the last three years.”
Kaneda @ ~11:00-11:30 — Market claim about depreciation patterns; underpins consumer advice to wait for discounts
“When they made 750 Rick and Mortys, it sold out in one day. Okay. Partially because the price was much better. So I'm really excited to see what happens in July.”
Kaneda @ ~15:00-15:30 — Correlates pricing to sell-through speed; establishes threshold for FOMO vs. demand

Entities

Stern PinballcompanyKanedaperson Metallicagame Godzillagame John Wickgame Jersey Jack Pinballcompany Dirty Donnieperson

Signals

?
announcement: Metallica 40th Anniversary edition confirmed for July 2024 by Stern, planned as premium non-LE with LCD migration
high · Kaneda: 'I am hearing as of today from somebody who knows exactly what's going to happen at Stern Pinball...This is 100% what I'm hearing is coming out in July'
?
machine_intel: Godzilla 70th Anniversary possibly releasing October 2024 to align with 1954 film premiere date
medium · Kaneda speculation: 'Maybe Stern is going to organize it like that. So in July...that's when Metallica drops. and maybe they moved Godzilla to October'
?
product_strategy: Stern deploying premium pricing ($13,000-$14,000+) on non-LE remaster editions as artificial scarcity mechanism
medium · Kaneda: 'The other way to make something limited is to just raise the price...Well, that's a surefire way to make sure you're not going to be selling more than a thousand of them'
?
design_innovation: Metallica anniversary edition will mark first Stern LCD migration of a classic DMD game, potential Spike 3 platform debut
medium · Kaneda: 'It's the first time we're ever going to see Stern do this, right? Go back to a DMD error game and make it new again on the LCD platform'
~
sentiment_shift: Community fatigue with 2024 Stern IP slate (John Wick, ABBA, Funhaus, Looney Tunes, Texas Chainsaw Massacre); anticipation for premium IPs later in year
high · Kaneda: 'John Wick is so boring to me right now...These are not the themes that we really would like lay down this much money for...If this hobby can just hold on a little bit, right? Hold on for dear life'

Topics

Metallica Anniversary Edition (Ride the Lightning 40th) AnnouncementprimaryStern's July 2024 Release StrategyprimaryLCD Screen Migration for Remasters / Spike 3 Hardware SpeculationprimaryIndustry Pricing Strategy and MSRP CritiqueprimaryConsumer Advice: Wait vs. Buy New; Depreciation PatternsprimaryStern IP Slate Quality and Market AppealsecondaryUpcoming High-Demand Titles (Goonies, Back to the Future, Beetlejuice, Pokemon, Harry Potter)secondaryCabinet Design Aesthetics: Stern vs. Jersey Jacksecondary

Sentiment

mixed(0.35)— Kaneda is enthusiastic about specific upcoming titles (Metallica, Goonies, Back to the Future, Harry Potter) but frustrated with current industry pricing, manufacturer business practices, and the weak IP slate of 2024 to date. Critical of Stern's design and pricing strategy, but optimistic about future releases and consumer leverage via secondary market pressure.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.048

0:00

Ah, the plot is thickening ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Canada's Pinball Podcast, week three of me sleeping on a pull-out couch and I've got some breaking news for you. And here's what's weird about this news. We kind of heard this news and then we got new news in which we thought was going to happen and that was Godzilla 70th anniversary, which is in 2024. But I'm also here to tell you right now, I am hearing as of today from somebody who knows exactly what's going to happen at Stern Pinball, I'm hearing that in July, Stern Pinball is going to release a special 40th anniversary edition of a band that is celebrating the 40th anniversary of an album called Ride the Lightning that came out July 27th in 1984. This is 100% what I'm hearing is coming out in July. Now, wait a minute. What about Godzilla? 2024 is also the 70th anniversary of Godzilla. Here's what's crazy to me is I didn't hear from my source that Godzilla is not coming out as well sometime this year. Now, wait a minute. What if Stern Pinball does something nuts. What if they release two anniversary edition games at the same time? I'm not saying it's going to happen, but what would prevent them from releasing in July, Metallica 40th of Ride the Lightning and Godzilla 70th, two of their greatest games of all time. These two games will always have a ton of demand because of how great they are. And remember too, These are not LEs. So these are premiums. So why not just throw them both out into the world and just let people order them whenever they want? And I think Stern is going to charge $13,000 for these games. It's really interesting what I think they're going to do now if they make a rerun or anniversary edition of a game and don't limit it. They can very simply just make it very sought after if they just charge us $13,000 for one. Because the other way to make something limited is to just raise the price. I mean, think about it. They could say, hey, look, we're not going to number these, but each one of these is $20,000. Well, that's a surefire way to make sure you're not going to be selling more than a thousand of them and it would become the new special version of the game. So now we have it, people. in July, there's going to be a Metallica Ride the Lightning version of the game. Now, something that most of you don't know is this. Dirty Donnie, back in the day, when he did the art packages for these games back in the day, he also did an art package celebrating Ride the Lightning, and Stern Pinball never used it. so maybe just maybe as they go back to the vault they're also going to go back to the vault of the art packages Dirty Donnie worked on and I can't tell if like Dirty Donnie and Metallica had a falling out or Dirty Donnie and Stern had a falling out and if Zombie Yeti does this art package I think people would love it also you know a band like Metallica works with a lot of very talented artists out there. So if they want to make this a whole new looking game, but with the same design layout of John Borg like classic hit it still going to work I don think it going to be an all game It is definitely going to be based on the original game everybody loves They going to put it on the LCD screen It's the first time we're ever going to see Stern do this, right? Go back to a DMD error game and make it new again on the LCD platform now. Does that mean Spike 3 is coming out in July? Because that was the other rumor that this would be the beginning of Spike 3. So many rumors and so many of them coming from Canada. Now, I think we're going to get both. Now, if you look at Godzilla, the actual date in which Godzilla, the first movie, came out was in October. I believe it was 1954. Maybe Stern is going to organize it like that. So in July, which is when Metallica's Ride the Lightning album is celebrating its anniversary, that's when Metallica drops. and maybe they moved Godzilla to October. Starting to make a little bit of sense here because think about it. John Wick is an abysmal failure for Stern. The sales are terrible. Nothing is going to turn it around and they got to keep that line going. So you hit with the Metallica sometime in July. That's not a cornerstone game. That's a premium anniversary edition and then maybe they hit with a new cornerstone game sometime in September and then they do the vault of Godzilla in October and then maybe another cornerstone game by the end of the year. I don't know. It's starting to get crazy when you think about how big Stern's facility is and how they need to keep their production going. But I think we're gonna see both a Godzilla black and white this year and I think we're gonna definitely see this Metallica now. So for you Metallica fans out there, and there's many of you, and I know some of you have been asking me, should I sell my old LE? Here's what I would do. I mean, obviously, wait and see, because nothing. This is the great part about Stern Pinball being forced to make these anniversary additions as premiums. You know what that means? It means you don't have to buy it right away. It means there's never going to be FOMO because they're never going to limit them. If it's a premium and a true premium, they will make these for a very long time. And that's what Stern doesn't realize. They really, really messed up. They really messed up. They really should have got their strategy right when they started making all these special editions of Elvira and Jurassic Park. They should have figured out a way to make anniversary editions work alongside the other limited edition versions of the game, and they didn't do it right. And so now they've got to do this weird thing. So I think all eyes are going to be on this game, how much it cost, how much effort did Stern put into the code now that it's on an LCD screen. Are we going to get new animations? What's the sound system going to be like if it's Spike 3? What are the new innovations in this game? And it's not just like internet connectivity. Stern Pinball really needs to make these machines look better. There's no way around it. Put an Elton John next to any Stern machine. If they're going to go down this route and they're going to want to charge us this much money for these pinball machines, they need to start making their machines look like they come from the last five to ten years and they don't. And they need to step into the 21st century of pinball. And Jersey Jack Pinball has raised the bar on how nice a pinball platform can look. And Stern Pinball machines look so dated next to them. And that's the final frontier for Stern Pinball. It's funny, right? It's always like if we could just combine these two companies, if we could get a machine that shot as good as a Stern pinball machine, but looked as good as a Jersey Jack machine, we could maybe start to justify the prices. Oh, wait a minute. That game just came out and it's called Elton John. And even as great as Elton John is though it is still overpriced I starting to see all these dealers now are having Elton John collector editions new in box ready to be picked up So for all those owners out there that have been saying, you better get one now because they're going to sell out. They're never going to sell out of 1,000 Elton John CEs at $15,000 a pop. Do you think Stern's really going to make 1,000 John Wick LEs? Like who's buying all these things? And now I hear that because there's a parts delay, they're not going to have all the LEs built at once. Sure. You know what the parts delay is called? The part that's delayed is called demand. And the other part that's delayed are consumers because there are not enough consumers with enough demand to justify Stern pinball making 1,000 John Wick LEs at $13,000 a pop. It's just never going to materialize. I've also have confirmation that the Goonies is coming out. Wow, we got Goonies coming out. We've got Back to the Future coming out. We've got Beetlejuice coming. We've got a lot coming. X-Men 97 is a rumor. Pokemon, Harry Potter. It feels like right now. I don't know how you feel right now. But maybe this is just me after three weeks on a pullout couch. Maybe it's just me. It just feels like we're in this weird place right now. We're going to get past it. But right now, think about it right now. We've got John Wick overpriced a colossal failure. We've got Funhaus remake. These are the new in box games. We've got ABBA and we've got Elton John and we've got Looney Tunes, Labyrinth, Texas Chainsaw Massacre. Pulp Fiction is like the outlier. When you think about where we are in pinball, at the most expensive period this hobby's ever been, and those are the themes, Princess Bride. You know, it's like, oh man, it's like, I don't know, man. These are not the themes that we really would like lay down this much money for. But a lot is coming. Harry Potter, Matrix, Back to the Future, Beetlejuice. If this hobby can just hold on a little bit, right? Hold on for dear life. We can just get to the end of this year. I think we're going to start to see themes that somewhat justify the high prices in pinball, but it's not right now. And all these companies raise their prices so prematurely. Like none of these companies, when you think about it, none of these companies raise their prices when they knew they had a juggernaut hit. Think about it. What was the last juggernaut hit for Stern Pinball? It was Godzilla. And that was $10,500 for an LE. What was the last juggernaut hit for Jersey Jack? It was Guns N' Roses. And CEs were $12,500. What was the last juggernaut hit for Spooky Pinball? I would argue it's Rick and Morty, right? And Rick and Morty was like $6,800. You see where I'm going with all this? All these companies have like significantly raised their prices and they don't have those games that are significantly worth it. And we've all been living through it. And I heard another thing. I heard the manufacturers are really mad at Kaneda. And the reason they're mad at me is that I continue to go on the airwaves and tell everybody that these games are overpriced, that you should all wait and see. And if you don't rush and buy new in box pinball, you're going to get a better deal. And I love that it's upsetting them. I love it. They can invite all the media people they want to see behind the scenes. It doesn't matter, everybody. I love watching when I go on Pinside and a new game comes out and the owner's thread is empty, right? And all these dealers and distros are struggling to move their inventory. That's a good thing because when they struggle to move their inventory, guess what's going to happen? they going to have to put that inventory on sale and then you and I can buy it for a better price Why would any of us root for these companies to make the most amount of money they can on a new in box deal When your friend goes to buy a car are you like, Johnny, don't do it, man. Don't get the best deal possible. You should really just pay MSRP because we want to see these auto companies survive and we want to see them make as much money as possible. So why is it when your friend goes to buy a pinball machine, would you ever support them spending this much money, MSRP, when the MSRP is a fool's number? And if you just look at the data, every single game, if you bought at MSRP, you've lost like $3,000 to $4,000 over the last three years. So we're doing something right. But finally, I mean it, we're going to get around this curve and we're going to get to themes that justify some of these higher prices, whether or not they're going to hit it bullseye is up to these themes. But when you start to think about stuff like Harry Potter and you start to think about stuff like Back to the Future, stuff like Beetlejuice, stuff like Pokemon, stuff like Goonies, I think we're going to start to see games again sell out in one day when it comes to the limited version of the game. We haven't seen it in a really long time. And it's because they haven't put anything in front of us that made us want it that bad. Like how many of you grown adults are like, oh man, I can't wait to wake up today and buy a Looney Tunes or a Texas Chainsaw Massacre. No, there's not even 888 people around the pinball world that needed those games on day one. When they made 750 Rick and Mortys, it sold out in one day. Okay. Partially because the price was much better. So I'm really excited to see what happens in July. John Wick is so boring to me right now. Between John Wick, ABBA, and freaking Funhaus remake, like add those three pins together and I would just fall asleep thinking about them. Now there is a wild card that's going to come out the same time as this Metallica. And that wild card in July is supposedly Dutch Pinball X's Alice in Wonderland, a game that we know is coming we've seen the underside of it and i don't know what they're waiting for but eventually they're gonna have to show us this game but look i'm more excited for alice in wonderland than abba or funhouse remake or john wick it's gonna have to be spectacular to be fourteen thousand dollars because again i think the days are over of just like a beautiful looking game without much in it and questionable demand. Are people going to throw $14,000? Man, you guys all must be millionaires if you can just keep buying every single game. 13 here, 13 here, 14 here. It's a lot of cheddar, people. The world is getting really expensive. And for all of these pins to get our money, it's going to have to be spectacular. So you heard it here now. I'm here to confirm for you that it is going to be Metallica Ride the Lightning 40th anniversary. It is happening in July from Stern Pinball. Will they also maybe release Godzilla then? Or will Godzilla 70th coincide with the date that movie came out in 1954? Maybe it's going to be that. Maybe it's going to be a Metallica, a Cornerstone, and then Godzilla. Maybe that's how they end the year. And then we get at the beginning of next year, we get a Pokemon or whatever rodeo is you know the nickname as Jason Knapp was reporting the nickname for Jack Danger's next game is rodeo I don't know you're never gonna guess it that doesn't really say much because the nickname for John Wick was waffles what they should have nicknamed John Wick was failure all right everybody later