Episode 959: "Kaneda's 4AM Fold Out Couch Feelings On Stern's Media Day"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·15m 53s·analyzed·May 24, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.027

TL;DR

Kaneda: Stern's media tour is a sales panic move preceding sleazy vault remakes.

Summary

Kaneda expresses skepticism about Stern's media day tour, characterizing it as a panic response to poor John Wick sales rather than genuine community engagement. He argues Stern deliberately excluded critical voices, predicts upcoming vault remakes of Metallica or Godzilla using semantic tricks to avoid calling them limited editions, and criticizes industry pricing as unsustainable given stagnant wages and post-COVID price inflation.

Key Claims

Stern Pinball is not selling the John Wick game well, prompting the media tour as a sales recovery effort
high confidence · Kaneda, opening thesis: 'This whole thing is calculated...because Stern Pinball is not selling this game'
Stern excluded critical voices from the media tour and only invited people likely to say positive things
high confidence · Kaneda: 'There's nobody that went over there that deconstructs Stern Pinball the way I do...did not get invited'
Stern plans to release vault remakes (Metallica or Godzilla 70th anniversary) using semantic tricks to avoid 'limited edition' label
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'They could call it like Godzilla last run Premium Edition 70th anniversary edition...As long as they don't number each game, it will technically not be limited by nature'
James Cameron's Avatar Limited Edition prices have increased approximately 40% since 2019
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'almost 40% increase for the price of a James Cameron's Avatar (Limited Edition) since 2019'
Stern previously stated they would never make more limited editions
high confidence · Kaneda: 'they went on the record and said they're never making more limited editions'
Stern pricing could be reduced by $2,000 per game while maintaining profitability and dealer margins
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'Stern is going to lower the prices by two thousand dollars a game and still be very profitable'
If John Wick was selling well, the media tour would not have happened
high confidence · Kaneda: 'if this game was selling great on day one this media tour never happens, and it's just that simple'
Kaneda's podcast has more subscribers than some content creators who received invitations
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'There's more people paying attention to what we're doing in the Kaneda's Pinball Podcast community than a lot of the other content creators'

Notable Quotes

“This whole thing is calculated. This whole thing is happening for a reason. It's because Stern Pinball is not selling this game.”
Kaneda @ early — Core thesis of the episode
“By the way as grown men, can we stop being so impressed by shiny stickers that go on a $13,000 pinball machine? It is not that expensive to put shiny stickers on a $13,000 game.”
Kaneda @ mid-early — Critique of foil cabinet marketing and collector behavior
“Those that will overlook it got an invite and those that won't overlook it didn't get an invite.”
Kaneda @ mid — Key insight about selective media invitations
“It's only when they're dealt a blow and they have a game that's not moving now all of a sudden they light up.”
Kaneda @ mid — Characterization of Stern's strategy as reactive desperation
“I think the real reason these people are there is because of the next move that's going to happen from Stern Pinball...a vault, most likely of Metallica. I said it first, July Metallica.”
Kaneda @ late-mid — Prediction of upcoming Metallica vault remake
“They could call it like Godzilla last run Premium Edition 70th anniversary edition. That's all they would have to do. As long as they don't number each game, it will technically not be limited by nature.”
Kaneda @ late-mid — Explanation of semantic tactics to circumvent limited edition promises
“Stern is going to lower the prices by two thousand dollars a game and still be very profitable...because if you're passing on those margins to the dealers and the distros you don't want to have everybody saying well why do we even need that why can't I just buy directly from Stern.”
Kaneda @ late — Economic analysis of pricing power and distribution model
“I changed about eight nappies. I burped my baby about eight times and I looked into his eyes and I saw in my little baby's eyes, I'm not going to buy your products.”

Entities

Stern Pinball Inc.company Gary Sternperson Kanedaperson John WickgameJames Cameron's Avatar (Limited Edition)gameMetallicagame Godzillagame

Signals

$
market_signal: John Wick experiencing notably weak sales, prompting emergency media tour and marketing intervention by Stern
high · Kaneda: 'Stern Pinball is not selling this game...if this game was selling great on day one this media tour never happens'
?
product_strategy: Stern anticipated to use semantic naming (e.g., 'Premium Edition 70th Anniversary Edition') to release vault remakes without technically calling them limited editions despite constraining availability
medium · Kaneda: 'As long as they don't number each game, it will technically not be limited by nature...They could call it like Godzilla last run Premium Edition'
?
industry_signal: Stern selectively inviting favorable voices to media tour while excluding known critics, suggesting coordinated PR damage control rather than genuine community engagement
high · Kaneda: 'Those that will overlook it got an invite and those that won't overlook it didn't get an invite...There's nobody that deconstructs Stern Pinball the way I do...did not get invited'
?
machine_intel: Metallica vault remake predicted as imminent, with Kaneda claiming to have 'said it first'; Godzilla 70th anniversary edition also rumored (previously reported by Jason Knapp)
medium · Kaneda: 'The next move that's going to happen is going to be a vault, most likely of Metallica. I said it first, July Metallica...if it's not a vault of Metallica, it's going to be a Godzilla anniversary edition'
$
market_signal: Avatar Limited Edition prices increased ~40% since 2019 while consumer wages stagnant; prices now unsustainable relative to consumer financial stress

Topics

John Wick sales performance and marketing strategyprimaryStern media tour motivations and selective invitationsprimaryVault remake predictions (Metallica, Godzilla)primaryPinball pricing and affordability post-COVIDprimarySemantic manipulation of limited edition designationssecondaryPinball media ethics and sponsorship disclosuresecondarySecondary market speculation and collector behaviorsecondaryPinball community relationships and insider politicsmentioned

Sentiment

negative(-0.72)— Kaneda is highly critical of Stern's tactics, pricing, and media strategy, though he acknowledges friendships in the hobby and respects certain journalists like Jason Knapp. The episode is framed as a warning to consumers rather than bitter attack, but the underlying tone is skeptical and accusatory toward Stern's motives.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.048

Alright, no intro music required. This is like old school Kaneda. I'm holding the mic in my hand. It's almost 4 o'clock in the morning. I'm on paternity leave and I've got some thoughts. And the reason why I don't want to do the intro music is once I hear that Kaneda theme song, it just triggers me and I have to start screaming about everything pinball. But I want to give you my thoughts after looking at some of these photos from the Stern Media Tour. And look, I'm happy everybody got to go there. They look like they had a really good time. It looked like it was a really good time. I'm It was a huge day touring the facility. It looked like a lot of fun going to the different arcades like in Chicago area, getting into the tour bus with Gary Stern and you're just hanging out with pinball people like I've always said. The most valuable thing in this entire hobby are the friends you're going to make. I was telling Brenda tonight, I was like some of my best friends in the entire world I've met through this hobby and this hobby has always provided me so much enjoyment license slim to align as a whole format tiddy cya below I'm happy that all those people got to go there. I'm happy that they got the tour of the facility. I heard it was mind-boggling big. Like it is so big. And I'm like, yep, it's got to be big because they're going to have to store all those John Wickes. That's the thing about this whole thing. This whole thing is calculated. This whole thing is happening for a reason. It's because Stern Pinball is not selling this game. And so why do you think they're bringing in all of these people? Now look, I know I'll joke and say it's Shillapalooza and they're just bringing in media to turn them into spokespeople for Stern. And I just want to say this. Do I think Stern Pinball will use people to get them to say nice things about their company and their products? Yes, it's what all companies do when they bring people over, when they fly you on an all expense paid trip. Now normally media will have to disclose all of that but no one's really disclosing anything because as we all know there really is no such thing as pinball media but look everyone's having a good time but this whole thing is so thinly veiled as an attempt by this company to sell these games and remember if they really wanted to do this right and get all of these pinball personalities to see John Wick to see the LE the foil cabinet and by the way As grown Men, can we stop being so impressed by shiny stickers that go on a $13,000 pinball machine? It is not that expensive to put shiny stickers on a $13,000 game. Little kids go up to those machines at the supermarkets and with a single quarter get shiny stickers. Like we act like anything that shines is diamonds and gold in the world of pinball and it's not. But if they really want I was a little kid at the time and I wanted to do it right. Zach Sharp would have done this before the game came out. So when the game launched in that little week in which Stern needs all of that FOMO to sell their products, they would have had all those smiling faces putting up content, sort of advocating for people to buy the LES and the premiums and understand everything that went into making John Wick. They didn't do that. You know what that tells me? They didn't want to do that. This whole thing is basically Sternpanicked tour round three because of the lack of John Wick sales and that it to me I don care how big your facilities are I don care what goes into licensing I don care what goes They are here tonight And you're looking at the same product in front of me. Do I see the value in it? Is it to me worth this much money? And look for certain games and certain themes Stern Pinball knocks it out of the park. This is not a company that makes a lot of failures. Stern Pinball hasn't had to do this because they've made the best pinball in all of pinball. And nobody would argue with that. Their success indicates that. I don't hate Stern Pinball. I've hated some of the moves they've made but it's not personal. But they absolutely have made some very greedy moves and they absolutely turned their back on all the collectors that kept them in business all these years. Absolutely. And you can't overlook that with an all expense paid media tour. Now look, those that will overlook it got an invite and those that won't overlook it didn't get an invite. And that's my other thing. When you do something You're not changing minds, right? You're not changing anybody's mind. There's nobody that went over there that deconstructs sternpinball the way I do, the way other people do on other podcasts and YouTube channels that did not get invited. So they've done absolutely nothing in changing the minds of any of those people. I will say this and I mean this as I look down at all my subscribers and all the people that are on my Facebook page. There's more people paying attention to what we're doing in the Kaneda community than a lot of the other content creators that have always said very nice things about Stern. And look, that's great. Like I'm happy. People are happy. I'm not here to rain on anybody's parade, but I'm just saying all of this, what I'm seeing is so obviously thinly veiled as a last ditch effort. Teller Disjointed John Wick Machines and if this game was selling great on day one this Media tour never happens, and it's just that simple when Stern is doing successful work And the games are flying off the shelves they don't want anything to do with these media people. They're not inviting them in They're not paying for their trips. They don't care. It's only when they're dealt a blow And they have a game. That's not moving now all of a sudden Lichtz, and some people have very low thresholds for what they're willing to do for the money. Look and I think there's a combination of people there. I think there's real journalists like Jason Knapp who's gonna cover this thing the right way. Like when you read Knapp's Arcade, he covers this stuff the right way. Yes, Is he having a good time over there? Absolutely! Yes. Is he smiling with the Stern employees over there? Absolutely! But best believe you're not going to see Jason Knapp be like I just ordered an L.E. I think you might see that behavior from some of the other people over there because all it takes is a little shiny cabinet and having a good night with people and drinking beers. And hey, who amongst us hasn't got drunk and then made a silly purchase decision? But here's the bigger damage in all of this is that Stern is doing this in a moment of their weakness. And now what they're going to do is they're going to win people over and get them to think twice. And I suggest you keepoi High dinners and Old of marketing better late than never but all of this to me doesn matter at the end of the day stern pinball needs to convince you they need to convince thousands of people out there that the products they make are worth this much money and at the end of everybody day I don know how you feeling but people are stressed people are finding themselves in a financial situation now that not as favorable as it was in 2019 and so if you look at where The number of pinball prices have gone since COVID. We're at a significant increase in price, almost 40% increase for the price of an LE since 2019. People's wages haven't gone up 40% and I understand that other things in life have gone up in price, but come on everybody, be smart. Stern saw what was happening during COVID. They saw the overwhelming demand and they adjusted their prices. They far overshot that with stuff like James Bond's 60th for $20. Korver Ajani, I think the real reason these people are there is because of the next move that's going to happen from Stern Pinball. I think the next move that's going to happen is going to be a vault, most likely of Metallica. I said it first, June, July Metallica, okay? And I think they know when they go back to the well. And if it's not a vault of Metallica, it's going to be a Godzilla anniversary edition, which Jason Knapp reported. Now look, I had originally reported GodzillaLE black and white, right, with like a green Godzilla a la Elvira and I think they shelved that for a while but it is the 70th anniversary of Godzilla and so the reason why I think they brought these people in now is they know if they go back to either the Metallica well or theGodzilla well, they're going to piss off so many people. I think they're going to do something a little sleazy. Here's why. Because they went on the record and said they're never making more LEs. Okay, so what happens though if Stern Pinball makes a nicer version of a Metallica LE or aGodzilla LE? They make a nicer version than that game and they don't call it an LE. And they say something like, well, we're going to do one run of premiums on this game and here's the new version of the premium, But it's one run, right? It's really easy to use semantics and create a new LE based upon the fact that you're not going to make it forever. They could call it like Godzilla last run premium 70th anniversary edition. That's all they got to do. As long as they don't number each game, it will technically not be limited by nature. And they could do the same thing with Metallica. But I think the real reason these people are there, they're going to go back to the vault. And when they go back to the From purchases Niue's introductory A aftermath Packages Analyze찰통 Get nem Space Ant twent位 A gasket Video play First of all if you are a little under agent don irritate your vacuum Fuckiness The I'm going to tell you now is the time you should sell it because you can always buy it back for much cheaper. And that's where we are in all the pinball people. Everyone has to be a little bit of a market speculator unless you're super loaded and none of this matters. And yes, those people are out there and some of you are listening to this right now and I love your freedom. If you have enough money, you are free from everything. You can do whatever you want whenever you want to do it. Now, will Stern Pinball be able to attract enough of those people to keep this company going to sell a thousand of these games? So look, a really exciting time in pinball. I'm not bitter about any of this. Someone sent me a screenshot of Andrew McBain, you know, the guy with like pinball adventures, just ragging on me. I haven't even thought about this guy in like months. He's blocked, by the way, from my Facebook page and from this podcast. He used to be a member and how butthurt I was that I wasn't at Stern today. Let me tell you what I did today, Andrew McBain. I changed about eight nappies. I burped my baby about eight times and I looked into his eyes and I saw in my little baby's eyes, I'm not going to buy your products. And look, it just is what it is. I have more subscribers than he will ever sell of pinball machines. So don't lecture anybody on what it takes to manufacture a product because I'll tell you this. There's a lot of people who make stuff. There's a lot of people who film movies. There's a lot of people who record songs. And there's a lot of people who have no talent. And even though they do all that stuff, the world is trying to tell them to stop doing it. The best part is what he's like Stern is going to sue you. No, they're not. Stern doesn't sue people. You do. And that's that, ladies and gentlemen, to put a bow around this. I'm happy everybody had a good time over there. I think it's a thinly veiled a day late and a dollar short invite for these individuals. And I think the whole thing is engineered to get these people to say nice things about Stern as Stern's about to do another move that's going to piss off more people. And I think they know that John That's it! And look! 13,000, 10,000 dollars for unlimited premiums. We all know these prices are too high and I don't care how big the factor is or what they show us, they were able to make a profit on all of these games when the prices were so much cheaper and there's no way the cost of them doing business has gone up this much. The same thing is happening to McDonald's and other places. and consumers are pushingback's turn to lower the prices by two thousand dollars a game and still be very profitable and still create a win win for its dealers and its distros and we all know that because if you're passing on those margins to the dealers in the distros you don't want to have everybody saying well why do we even need that why can i just buy directly from stern the world's getting very expensive people and people are going to start buckling down I think that's going to be the really interesting part about 2024 and 2025. If people are getting pinched everywhere, if they're still going to want to buy stuff for this much money, Killian just woke up. I got to put him back to bed. Love you guys. Goodnight. Thanel Siu, Cannon Let's Make U Do