Episode 981: "An Interesting August for Stern"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·18m 46s·analyzed·Aug 5, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.027

TL;DR

Stern next game is Marvel-themed Jack Danger title; industry pricing strategy at breaking point.

Summary

Kaneda reports exclusive intel that Stern's next game (launching August) is a Marvel-themed title, NOT X-Men 97, designed by Jack Danger. He analyzes Stern's pricing and LE production strategy as a major vulnerability following John Wick's failure, argues the pinball industry is making forgettable games at unsustainable prices, and teases upcoming Dutch Pinball exclusive reveals. Haggis creditor documents exposing customer home addresses are also discussed.

Key Claims

Stern's next game is a Marvel-themed title launching in August, designed by Jack Danger
high confidence · Kaneda, exclusive information basis for episode; claims he will sign NDA to verify
Stern's next game is NOT X-Men 97
high confidence · Kaneda, framed as direct confirmation
John Wick has been 'an abysmal failure' for Stern with weak sales
medium confidence · Kaneda, characterization of market performance
Venom was the last Marvel launch and 'whiffed' despite great artwork
medium confidence · Kaneda, opinion on prior Stern performance
Deadpool is the best Marvel game Stern has done since Steve Ritchie's Spider-Man
low confidence · Kaneda, subjective assessment
Stern's creative department has real concern they're making too many LEs at unsustainable prices
medium confidence · Kaneda, sourced from internal knowledge; not directly attributed
Haggis creditor documents publicly expose customer home addresses
high confidence · Kaneda, claims to have reviewed documentation
Damien is owed approximately AUD $1M from Haggis, the largest creditor claim
medium confidence · Kaneda, source from creditor documentation review
Dutch Pinball game launching September/October; game image releasing on DPX Facebook today
high confidence · Kaneda, claims exclusive Monday reveal
Melvin (Dutch Pinball) will not use nonrefundable pre-order model
medium confidence · Kaneda, characterization of Melvin's stated policy

Notable Quotes

“Stern Pinball is coming out with a cornerstone game sooner than they wanted to. We all know the reason why John Wick has been an abysmal failure for this major pinball company.”
Kaneda @ early — Core thesis: John Wick failure forcing accelerated release of next Marvel title
“Stern's next game is not X-Men 97... they are going to make a game coming out in August that is in the Marvel Universe.”
Kaneda @ mid — Direct confirmation of unannounced game IP and launch window
“They haven't gone and made the movies or the major cultural things that people are engaged with... I think that might bite them.”
Kaneda @ mid — Critique of Stern's IP strategy relative to zeitgeist content
“If you go in early on these Stern LEs you gonna lose—not just a little bit of money, a lot of money.”
Kaneda @ mid — Market signal about secondary-market depreciation of recent Stern LEs
“You can't just charge $13,000 and make a thousand. You can't charge $15,000 if you're Jersey Jack and make a thousand Avatar CEs. If you don't have a theme like Back to the Arcade Future or Die Hard or Ghostbusters, you can't price everything like it's got that kind of demand.”
Kaneda @ late — Industry-wide pricing strategy critique; mentions JJP Avatar as cautionary example
“If ABBA never came out, would you even care? No. If it never surfaced, nobody would even care.”
Kaneda @ early — Characterization of recent game releases as forgettable and market-misaligned
“I think the reception to this game is going to be the ultimate moment. That's the first step. You're just gonna have to get that done.”
Kaneda @ late — Frames Marvel Jack Danger title as critical test of Stern's viability going forward

Entities

KanedapersonStern PinballcompanyJack Dangerperson John Wickgame Venomgame Jawsgame Deadpoolgame

Signals

?
announcement: Stern Marvel-themed pinball game by Jack Danger launching August; NOT X-Men 97
high · Kaneda claims exclusive pre-announcement insider information; states he will sign NDA for verification
?
product_concern: John Wick characterized as 'abysmal failure' with weak sales, forcing accelerated next release
medium · Kaneda frames this as rationale for early Marvel game announcement
?
product_strategy: Industry-wide LE and premium pricing unsustainable; $13k LE/$10k Premium standard too high for non-mega-IP
high · Kaneda details secondary market losses on early Stern LE purchases; cites Venom $13k, JJP Avatar $15k examples
~
sentiment_shift: Widespread community fatigue with forgettable recent pinball releases across major manufacturers
high · Kaneda criticizes ABBA, Funhouse Remake, Ninja Eclipse as forgettable; notes community indifference to shipping announcements
?
machine_intel: Dutch Pinball game image releasing today (Monday) on DPX Facebook; full launch September/October 2024
high · Kaneda claims Monday reveal, promises exclusive image next week; states NDA signing for details
?
licensing_signal: Stern avoiding current pop-culture Marvel content (X-Men 97) in favor of generic Marvel universe themes

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.056

0:00

Awe, Happy Monday morning everybody, welcome to Canades Pinball Podcast, on this episode, I am gonna reward all like 696 of you with some exclusive information. It's just gonna shake up the entire debate around what's next from Stern Pinball and it does feel like Stern Pinball is coming out with a cornerstone game sooner than they wanted to. We all know the reason why John Wick has been an abysmal failure for this major pinball company. They did not expect such weak sales from that game. So we're gonna do that in just a little bit. Let's talk about what else is going on in pinball right now. We have the Pinball Brothers Abba is now shipping. It is on the line. And I don't know about you, but doesn't it feel like Abba was announced so long ago that finally seeing these games going into boxes just does not excite me. And I'm not really sure who would even order this game. It does feel like a very forgettable game. Doesn't it feel like a lot of what's been happening What's happening in pinball around the big companies, you know, around the companies like Stern, around the companies like JJP, I'll put Spooky up there, I'll put Barrels of Fun up there, all the other boutique companies that have been competing for your space and for your money, it feels like the stuff they've been releasing is just so easily forgettable. And I mean that like Abba, if this game never came out, would you even care? No, if it never surfaced, nobody would even care. It doesn't feel like we wanted it. It doesn't feel like we're going to miss it. And when you look at the price point of Abba and you look at the artwork and the lack of magic in the game, it's an easy pass for almost all of you. And then you look at a game like Funhouse Remake. Trans��那麼� sitio si trench 넣고 term�이 �ответict�로 클�ovich을여� praw을 귀여 ꈄ핑겠지만 Californ 우리가 downwards Tigers 화이 printing에 извест Regardless terminals가입니다 어가�con 하면 그� Nunetsine or I'mV fundamental邘장게 싸엑üll�abbg해� mikä� righteousness The Question how come all these pinball companies are getting it wrong Like what are they doing like how hard is it to actually do the market research and land on something? That you know will be received with a lot more Enthusiasm just think about it like if I'm a marketer and I am a marketer if I'm gonna go down a road To make a pinball machine bring a pinball machine into the world. I absolutely would make sure I nail it so that selling a thousand of them is easy. Like there should be more than a thousand people who are waiting to give you their money because you made something that they really want. I mean they can't even sell a thousand labyrinth machines, let alone ABBA, let alone Funhaus, let alone like Ninja Eclipse. It's just so weird to me the amount of getting it wrong that happens in pinball. And I think I speak for all of us when I say we all want to see great magical games come to market. And it's not like we're against original IP stuff. But if you're going to go down the original IP road like Ninja Eclipse, you kind of have to do something that's never been done before. 어떻oodal. That's sir at the end. Atostictal. Go and play by playing podcast, awesome me to the point, atostictal.wifMR,

4:18

atostictal.wifMR players espe None, noncceptical Metro Franchie, p Investigate, part-time miourrald, fav whole I going to sign an NDA today or early this week so I can also see the game and talk to you about it Now today this Monday you going to see an image of this game on Dutch Pinball X Facebook page so look out for that And then next week, Kaneda is going to get an exclusive image to share with each and every one of you. Because remember, this game is coming out September, October. So it is August, so they're moving towards launch. They are getting ready for launch. The timeframe I heard about this game is they're going to reveal it and then the game is going to be on the line in a couple months. Now, I also know from Melvin he's not going to do this nonrefundable shenanigans, so that's good news. I think he's seen what's happened in the hobby and he obviously does not want to go down a similar road where people are giving money Taś Thats āža n' Customāovičković Für� modest āating āž được ālaťa ālyūžčíēĎĉuļēĉĻļģ ĒjČoćĄČĭČđđčĒ� nocheĉģ�eding te�ниĉkes� teil All right, so what else is going on in pinball? All right, so you know what's crazy about this whole Haggis situation is I keep getting sent more documentation about what's happening between the creditors and it still boggles my mind that the person owed the most money This is what makes no sense. The person owed the most money is Damien like he's down there him and Hartz go are owed a million Australian dollars How is he owed the most? The other really interesting thing is everybody who ordered a game from him, their home address is now all throughout this documentation so you can actually go and see where everybody lives. Like that's a lot of privacy that is now out there in the world that these gentlemen probably wish was not public. I haven't done it yet, but part of me is just curious to see how much money these individuals had to throw like $17,500 in full for Centaur. Because you can see who paid for the Centaur in full and then their home addresses. So I don't know, maybe these guys are so rich and they live in these like 8,000 square foot homes that losing $18,000 on a pipe dream Rob Peter to pay Paul game is no big deal to them. These take b pewn p rm, and entschieden. urgocayfney fini to check whether his highlight Bulleted famous hoe, lashitor. louise carnavalesgebcript at target iron b수를 completic bibayippers. Direct Backlah circulars knobs at driverієes, thanks hoovois惜, sc вместе, rops my Cosplay Frankie corrector proth referendum for File offenses in el crow 언니,

7:38

Duval facing off, Jers, Deожно Lands, . Magid comma, vocalsmann, all drin Blan MAagichrqard entainMorgen Zack, you need disneymoresome Whygaps is % doing what What's The zach Ethanreah I N Tre companies At vogichez Alright, I'm going to tell you right now what you need to know about Stern's next game. And I want to discuss this because it's really, really going to be an interesting August for Stern. This company is sort of at a crossroads. It's not used to this marketplace. It's not. Like Stern Pinball had the golden goose. Every single Stern launch, they sold out of the All these there was a waitlist to get on an LE list with a distributor and they had the hotness right every new game there was so much excitement and enthusiasm whenever Stern launched a game. Those days are over like they're absolutely over they're gone the entire company has been priced as if we are still living in the COVID feeding frenzy madness and it's not working out for them. And now we have like two years of market data and information that shows us if you go in early on these SternLEs you gonna lose not just a little bit of money a lot of money And not only that they also got just destroyed with this John Wick launch like nobody wants it Like it is just a sinking ship that again I think a John Wick LE will be like an game by the end of the year And so do you want to lose just to show your support for a company So here what I going to tell you everything but it going to lead to some speculation So I'm here to tell you right now, Stern's next game is not X-Men 97. They are not releasing a pinball machine based on the new popular X-Men 97 show that is on Disney Plus. So you can run to Pinside, you could tell my boy Jason Knapp, you can go report it on Pinball Enthusiast on Facebook where Kaneda is banned that Kaneda is 100% confirming that it is not X-Men 97. But I will tell you this, they are going to make a game coming out in August that is in the Marvel Universe. So it is a Marvel themed game. And let's talk about what this means because I think this is going to get So, we've got Jack Danger making a Marvel themed game and you know Marvel is a well that Stern continues to go back to. We've had a lot of Marvel titles. We've had Avengers, we've had X-Men, we've had Spider-Man, we've had Venom, we've had Deadpool. There are a lot. If you are a Marvel fan, you have had a plethora of games to buy The last Marvel launch was an absolute failure in Venom. There are some people out there who think Venom is great, really just one person, Bond, who listens to this show, who I think is trying to buy all 999 other LEs to corner the market, but for everybody else out there, they whiffed on Venom. So then we go from a Marvel game like Venom that whiffed, even though it had zombietti The game is a game that is not just about the artwork, but also about the price. If Venom LE was $8500, I think a lot more people would approach that game with an open mind. But now that we're at $13,000 for an LE, $10,000 for a premium, a lot of people are In the meantime, we are looking at these things saying, hey, is the value there? Do I really want this? Am I going to free up space for this kind of game? And the answer was no. And then we got Jaws, which was Keith Alwyn. And I think Jaws has done well for Stern. And then after Jaws, we have the abysmal failure in John Wick. So here's the crazy thing. Here's going to be the interesting thing to look at in August. Do we really think that Stern can follow up one of its In conclusion, what are we robbed eating is explained by the following implications,젠 저희가 , Vseeo, y infections that we added to it,uit ActiveSt premix atf,Tar Language, ranging royaltyulate здоровье , servirCom,201243,20__и שש oriental nước예요 Corinthians allowing the use of interregionalgon contributor,centralgan,altias indigeneémonkracus внkaar ש Religionginesround 육 ח experimentingעізγ partneredாنenth혔,18- competitionof child mmosek tienymas,alfgradation biodiversity size,o您 תvl anniversaryre 유� JEFFéd panic균�ks drones 업 buffaloüz 본�반 Perez준�lah�árias aggregate szcz GNÜ τα leicht거든요 오케이 Cartoon, frees Awesome AX�� vs. Ph indem emotions Withoutl Sp krit Includes Shazib Say casi P Caram je high

12:56

Sh cert Jon Sh Am Sab C Bar),included, James Bond includitect, Venom included, all of them just lost like $3,000 in value. Like you couldn't sell a Foo Fighter LE unless you sold it for $10,000 or less. And so that is where we are at today. And so here's my question for each and every one of you. Do you think going back to the Marvel well is going to lead to like the kind of enthusiasm I think Stern needs to sort of course correct The I don't think going back to Marvel is gonna create what they need if I were Stern right now What they really need is a universally beloved nostalgic movie pinball machine they need something like Ghostbusters they need something like Batman 89 Redone They need something like Ferris Bueller Day Off They need something like Top Gun They need something like The Matrix or Karate Kid, and yes I will say Fifth Element. They need something like that. If they go back to the Marvel well and they make something... And remember look at what Stern's done recently with the Marvel games. They haven't gone and made the movies or the major cultural things that people are engaged with, right? When they made Avengers, was it based on the Avengers movie? No. When they made Venom, was it based on the Venom movies? No. With X-men 97 being the new property out there in the world that everybody is loving, is the game going to be based on X-men 97? And the answer is no. So they're going to the Marvel well, but they're not I'm not going to the big properties and the big cultural content that has everybody's attention. And I think that might bite them. Like I'm not sure like this is what people want more of. Now that being said, the greatest way out of that problem is Jack Danger is an amazing game with amazing design and amazing code. And I bet if it is a Marvel themed game, I bet Zombie Yeti is going to be on it. So it's gonna look incredible and if they do something in the Marvel Universe in a really interesting and unique way, who knows it might be the next Deadpool. And I think Deadpool is the game that I would hold up as the best Marvel game they've done since Steve Richie's Spider-Man. I think Deadpool is bolted to the ground in a lot of game rooms but here's the issue. How much was Deadpool? It was like 8,500 for an LE. How many LEs did they make? 500. Now I know that there is real concern over at Stern by the Stern Creative department that they're making too many LEs, that they're too expensive, that the marketing side of the company has set up the creative side of the company to fail. And I think what we're going to see this August, it's coming out in just a few weeks, I think the reception to this game is going to be the ultimate moment in That's the first step. You're just gonna have to get that done. Now, it's the moment, Stern. If you're going back to the Marvel Well and it's not based on a major movie, I think you need to make only five hundred LEs. You need to start baking back in, some value to these high-end games you're selling. If you don't, and if you make a thousand of them, and then premiums are $10,000, I think you're going to see another lukewarm response to your game. And I think it's going to be like this forever until you come out with some of those like triple A movie properties that have so much nostalgic appeal. So that is where we are at today. It's going to be an exciting month. I think all these pinball companies have to wake up. I think it's over. Like you can't just charge $13,000 and make $1,000. You can't charge $15,000 if you're Jersey Jack and make $1,000 Avatar CEs. If you don't have a theme like Back to the Future or Die Hard or Ghostbusters, you can't price everything like it's got that kind of demand. I'm curious what you guys think, but we're going to see this all unfold. And you heard it here first on Canadian Spinball Podcast. And to those like 25 people that I have left Kanaeda's Pinball Podcast because I took a break for my family. I don't know what to tell them. You guys are getting the goods on a Monday morning. Look out for that Alice's Adventures in Wonderland picture today. More to come on that. So many forgettable games and the biggest company in all of pinball going back to the Marvel well. Is it going to get them out of the John Wick hole? We shall see. Everybody love you. Talk to you soon. Kanaeda out.