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The Pinball Show Ep 127.5: Is Harry Potter Pinball Really Happening?!

Pinball Show Patreon Feed·podcast_episode·16m 12s·held·May 15, 2023
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.030

TL;DR

Host analyzes leaked Joe Kaminkow post claiming JJP secured Harry Potter pinball license.

Summary

Zach Minney analyzes a cryptic May 14, 2023 Facebook post by Joe Kaminkow claiming Jersey Jack Pinball has secured the Harry Potter license—a license long rumored unavailable due to J.K. Rowling's alleged resistance to pinball. Despite a photoshopped cabinet image in the post and subsequent deletion, Minney believes the claim is credible based on Kamenka's track record, motive analysis, and circumstantial evidence of JJP interest (employee trips to Harry Potter attractions, Jack Guarnieri recent social media posts). He speculates on timeline (likely after Steve Ritchie next design) and design philosophy, calling it potentially transformative for the industry.

Key Claims

  • Jersey Jack Pinball has secured the Harry Potter pinball license

    medium confidence · Joe Kaminkow 14, 2023 Facebook post (now deleted), interpreted and defended by host Zach Minney as credible despite photoshopped cabinet image

  • J.K. Rowling was previously resistant to pinball licensing due to association with bars, alcohol, and gambling concerns

    medium confidence · Zach Minney citing long-standing industry rumors about Rowling's licensing philosophy

  • Joe Kaminkow likely posted the announcement out of frustration at not securing the license himself for Kapow Pinball

    low confidence · Zach Minney's speculative analysis of Kamenka's motive and emotional state

  • Harry Potter pinball will not be the next JJP release; Steve Ritchie game will come first, likely by end of 2023

    medium confidence · Zach Minney's timeline analysis based on when the license announcement appears to have been recent

  • Stern Pinball is experiencing parts shortages and fulfillment delays for Rush toppers and expression lighting kits

    high confidence · Zach Minney reporting directly from his experience as Flip N Out Pinball dealer; fewer than 10% of expression lighting orders fulfilled, 2-4 month wait projected

  • Joe Kaminkow's Kapow Pinball partnership with Stern has historically secured major licenses like The Beatles and Batman 66

    high confidence · Zach Minney citing established industry knowledge of Kapow Pinball's licensing success

Notable Quotes

  • “Jersey Jack has secured the license for Harry Potter for pinball. No waiting, no speculation, they locked it in.”

    Joe Kaminkow@ 4:17 — The core claim triggering the entire episode; cryptic announcement of the most sought-after pinball license

  • “one of the most highly sought after unobtainium licenses rumored for years a dream theme grail game arguably more so than any other title harry potter”

    Zach Minney@ 5:54 — Establishes Harry Potter's legendary status in the pinball community and the improbability of the license being available

  • “If I'm reading into this, that's Joe Kaminkow professing the truth in a whim because he was upset.”

    Zach Minney@ 10:12 — Central thesis: Kamenka leaked the news in frustration, lending credibility to the post

  • “I do think that Steve Ritchie is releasing a game next for Jersey Jack Pinball. And I do believe that whatever he is working on was done so prior to them potentially getting this license.”

    Zach Minney@ 12:40 — Timeline speculation suggesting Harry Potter is not JJP's immediate next release

  • “Hey, JJP, if all this is true, wow. Don't mess up this opportunity. Don't mess it up.”

    Zach Minney@ 14:49 — Emphasizes the magnitude of the license and stakes for Jersey Jack Pinball

  • “Joe Kaminkow is kind of known as the king of licenses. It's like him and Roger Sharpe. They can get the licenses that people struggle to get.”

    Zach Minney@ 10:19 — Establishes Kamenka's credibility and motive to be involved in high-profile licensing deals

  • “Less than 10% of what we ordered [expression lighting kits]. Now, the one thing to note is that Stern Pinball is telling me that they continue to make them.”

Entities

Zach MinneypersonJoe KaminkowpersonJack GuarneripersonSteve RitchiepersonEric MeunierpersonMark SeidenpersonRoger Sharpeperson

Signals

  • ?

    rumor_hype: Joe Kamenka's deleted Facebook post claiming Jersey Jack Pinball secured Harry Potter license; cryptic announcement with photoshopped cabinet image sparks widespread speculation about authenticity and timing

    medium · Post dated May 14, 2023; host interprets deletion as proof of truth/frustration; no official JJP confirmation yet

  • ?

    licensing_signal: Harry Potter pinball license allegedly secured by Jersey Jack Pinball, ending years of speculation about J.K. Rowling's resistance to pinball licensing

    medium · Joe Kamenka post; Jack Guarneri's recent teasing social media posts; employee Harry Potter attraction visits; timing coincides with broader Harry Potter media expansion (Max TV adaptation, Hogwarts video game)

  • ?

    supply_chain_signal: Stern Pinball experiencing significant delays on Rush accessory orders (toppers, expression lighting kits); less than 10% of expression lighting orders fulfilled; 2-4 month wait projected; industry-wide dealer impact

    high · Direct testimony from Flippin' Out Pinball proprietor; consistent reports from nearly 100 customers and other dealers; Stern attributes to parts/production issues

  • ?

    manufacturing_signal: Stern Pinball's new facility move expected to increase accessory production capacity; current constraints affecting dealer fulfillment; only 25% of Rush toppers received by Flippin' Out, less than 10% of expression lighting

    high · Host's direct observation as major dealer; Stern's statements about continued production runs; hope for improvement post-facility migration

  • ?

    industry_signal: Joe Kamenka's alleged frustration over Harry Potter license going to JJP (not Kapow Pinball/Stern partnership) suggests competitive tension between manufacturers; Kamenka's leak strategy interpreted as 'kick in the nuts' move

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.049

0:00
Warning, the following episode contains adult language and screaming goats. Listener discretion is advised.
0:11
The Pinball Network is online. Launching the Pinball Show. Thanks again for the ongoing support as a Pinball Show Club member. Enjoy this exclusive TPS content and make sure to visit the Pinball Show Club Discord to chat about the bonus material. Hey everybody, welcome to episode 127.5 of the Pinball Show. I'm your host Zach Minney, and I just could not wait until next week to provide you all with an exclusive discussion about some Harry Potter pinball news. We're going to dive into that, but first I want to give you guys an update on additional items of note, including Stern Pinball recently beginning to ship some Rush toppers and expression lighting kits. Nearly a hundred of you guys have been messaging me about where your Rush topper and expression lighting kits are. And here's the skinny. No one should be surprised to hear that some people are getting their toppers and expression lighting kits and some people, a lot of people are not. This is how it works at Stern Pinball. Specifically as to why it works this way,
1:21
I'm not always 100% sure. I'm told one thing, but I don't know. It always seems like a parts issue or accessory priority situation, but Flippin' Out Pinball did receive over 25% of our topper orders for Rush. So we've gotten those out. My deepest apologies if you have not yet received your Rush topper from Flippin' Out Pinball. Believe me, it's not Nicole and I's intention to sit on a pile of toppers. They're ours.
1:50
No, we want to ship out those things as soon as possible so we can get paid. So many of you who have ordered from Flippin' Out or from the other dealers across the country, many of you are going to have to wait longer for that topper. How long? Indications suggest two to four months. Again, that's just an estimation, and in no way do I know for sure. That's how the topper game goes, y'all. It's a violent little ride, but it's one that we continue to ride over and over again because it makes us feel all tingly. Now, the expression lighting kit for Rush, a little darker. That does seem more like a parts situation or a production situation because we did not receive nearly the percentage of expression lighting kits thus far as we have the Rush toppers. I'm talking like less than 10% of what we ordered. Now, the one thing to note is that Stern Pinball is telling me that they continue to make them. And they're still in this run, within the run. So flipping out pinball should be getting more. But at this point in time, we got very few. How many more we'll receive in this first run? No clue. When they'll make them again, I have no idea. But again, thank you for your patience in receiving one of those expression lighting kits from flipping out pinball. We're not alone. Pretty much every other dealer is only getting a couple squeezed to them. I can honestly say that the majority of buyers of these Rush accessories will be waiting past the first run. It's not a you thing. It's not a flipping out pinball thing. It's an everyone thing.

Zach Minney@ 2:34 — Concrete supply chain data showing manufacturing bottlenecks at Stern

  • “The majority of buyers of these Rush accessories will be waiting past the first run. It's not a you thing. It's not a flipping out pinball thing. It's an everyone thing.”

    Zach Minney@ 3:07 — Normalizes industry-wide fulfillment delays and absolves retailers of blame

  • “I always question that because there's like a damn slot machine of Harry Potter.”

    Zach Minney@ 8:39 — Skeptical point about Rowling's purported aversion to Harry Potter in 'gambling-adjacent' venues

  • “There's a tv adaptation coming on max here soon about harry potter the recent video game about hogwarts and harry potter and poking each other with wands that game was a hit”

    Zach Minney@ 14:07 — Contextualizes recent media expansion of Harry Potter IP and licensing appetite

    • J.K. Rowling
    person
    Jersey Jack Pinballcompany
    Stern Pinballcompany
    Kapow Pinballcompany
    Flip N Out Pinballcompany
    Harry Pottergame
    The Beatlesgame
    Batman 66game
    [name withheld pending review]game
    Godfathergame
    Rushgame
    Jack Dangerperson
    Dennisperson
    Nicoleperson
    Canadian Pinball Podcastorganization
    Pinball Show Cluborganization
    Maxcompany
    Universal Studios Wizarding World of Harry Pottervenue

    low · Host's motive analysis; Kamenka's historical dominance in licensing; lack of public Kapow Pinball involvement in HP deal

  • ?

    machine_intel: Harry Potter unlikely to be Jersey Jack Pinball's immediate next release; Steve Ritchie's game expected first (late 2023); Matrix rumored as Ritchie's title per Canadian Spinball Podcast; HP likely after Ritchie and possibly Mark Seiden designs

    medium · Host's timeline analysis based on recency of Kamenka's announcement; Mark Seiden speculation humorously questioned; Ritchie's track record with major licenses (Star Wars, Terminator)

  • ?

    design_philosophy: Host anticipates Harry Potter pinball as 'pretty standardized and vanilla' design; likely to feature film-based assets rather than novel-based adaptation; design fit for Steve Ritchie based on his history with tentpole IPs

    medium · Host's speculation about visual direction; Ritchie's successful track record with mainstream licenses; Eric Meunier as secondary design candidate praised for quality

  • ?

    content_signal: Harry Potter IP entering fresh licensing cycle due to new Max TV adaptation and Hogwarts video game success; suggests J.K. Rowling/WB opening licensing doors after years of restriction; timing supports credibility of license announcement

    high · Host citing recent Harry Potter media expansion; Hogwarts game described as 'a hit'; Max streaming platform involvement; context for why Rowling may have reversed pinball stance

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Dramatic shift in community expectation: Harry Potter pinball shifts from 'never happening' (long-standing rumor) to 'likely secured by JJP' based on single unconfirmed post; represents major category shift in what licenses are considered possible

    medium · Host framing HP as 'unobtainium' and 'grail game' for years; sudden announcement reverses that narrative; even with skepticism, credibility assigned to Kamenka's claim

  • ?

    product_concern: Dealer-side inventory management degraded by Stern's inconsistent accessory order fulfillment; creates customer service burden for retailers like Flippin' Out; broader pattern of accessory scarcity affecting industry

    high · Host's direct experience managing customer complaints; 'nearly a hundred' customer inquiries about Rush accessories; admission of frustration by host despite understanding manufacturing constraints

  • $

    market_signal: Massive pent-up demand for Harry Potter pinball creates significant FOMO risk; potential to shift purchasing behavior away from current/upcoming titles while awaiting HP; host warns JJP not to squander opportunity

    medium · Host's emphasis on industry-transformative potential; speculation about consumer deferral of other purchases; repeated warnings to JJP about stakes

  • ?

    personnel_signal: Steve Ritchie expected to design next JJP release; Harry Potter design likely to fall to Ritchie or Eric Meunier based on license stature; Mark Seiden speculated humorously as less-likely candidate

    medium · Host's knowledge of Ritchie's schedule and past major licenses; Meunier's game quality reputation; Seiden jokingly dismissed (suggesting lower probability)

    • 3:19
    And it sucks. And I am sorry on their behalf. Overall, my goal, my hope is that Stern Pinball, once moved into this new facility, has the production capacities increased for their accessories and parts line. And I have confidence in that. But then again, I am likely the most impatient pinball enthusiast on the planet. So don't ever feel bad if you guys think you're impatient or if you're bugging me by asking where your accessory is. But I'm worse than you could ever be. I won it yesterday.
    3:52
    All right, now the reason you're here. Maybe the reason that you signed up to the pinball show official club membership This last weekend the pinball world stopped on Mother Day as many of us witnessed and seen on social media particularly Facebook a post by the legendary Joe Kamenkow And that post read the following. Hey pinball fans, here's the scoop. Jersey Jack has secured the license for Harry Potter for pinball. No waiting, no speculation, they locked it in.
    4:27
    You alright Harry? You seem very quiet. He killed my parents didn't he? The one who gave me this. You know Hagrid. I know you do. First, I understand this Harry, because it's very important.
    5:00
    Not all wizards are good. happiness can be found even in the darkest of times if one only remembers to turn on the light If that does nothing for you, then neither will pinball in general, likely. one of the most highly sought after unobtainium licenses rumored for years a dream theme grail game arguably more so than any other title harry potter this theme has lore built into it when it comes to pinball we've been told for years that jk rowling will not license out this theme to pinball rumors have said that she is not into this type of product for her multi-billion dollar theme. They're some of the most popular novels ever created, some of the most popular films ever created. And now the possibility for it to be one of the most popular pinball machines ever produced? Question mark. Let's back up here a little bit. Sunday evening, May 14th, 2023, Joe Kamenkal posted that on his personal Facebook page alongside a picture of a rendition of a Stern cabinet with Harry Potter decals and a Translight. So a photoshopped Harry Potter pinball machine, which confused a lot of people because of the message that he sent saying, Jersey Jack pinball has secured this license. Then why is there a picture of it on a Stern game? Might that mean that this is a fake? Might that mean that Joe Cam and Cal has been hacked? Maybe this is a fake account. If this were to be true, there's no way Joe Kamikow would have done this. He's just trolling. I've heard Kaneda on Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. This is just a troll method. That picture's a fake. Well, yeah, I mean, I'm pretty sure that picture is a fake, yeah. Somebody said it was like a picture of a Photoshop job that Jack Danger did in the past. I remember Jack doing a Photoshop job of the Harry Potter novels as a theme rather than the films and asked the internet, is this something that people could still get behind? Is it preferred over the film franchise, which arguably is fucking laughable. So I'm not sure where this came from. Maybe it did come from Jack Danger. I not sure To me it looks like when Franchi does this kind of stuff when he Photoshop stuff together Would that work visually if that was the artwork Sure. If Harry Potter pinball does happen, I anticipate it being pretty standardized and vanilla, which I'm okay with. But let's go back more. Let's go back further. We know that the rumors were there that J.K. Rowling was not into pinball, thought it was gambling, did not, it's in bars a lot, and the content in which she has created is oftentimes for teens, children, families. She don't want them in bars, cigarette smoke-filled bars and booze. I always question that because there's like a damn slot machine of Harry Potter. Then we had Joe Kamikawa, what was it, a year back, two years back, kind of trolling a little bit about Stern having Harry Potter's license. We've also seen in the past, social media, some of the employees, designers, coders, taking a trip to Hogwarts. That is, I believe it was the California Universal Studios rendition of the Wizarding World of Harry Potter. Posting pictures online of that. Then most recently, though, at the eve of the announcement of Godfather Pinball, Jersey Jack Pinball himself, Jack Guarneri, posts a picture online of him standing by the likeness of other Warner Brothers titles that they have secured and created pinball machines for, but also in that picture was Ron Weasley, or it was Harry Potter in general, was Jack Ranieri trolling. Has anyone secured the rights to Harry Potter for pinball? I believe wholeheartedly the answer is yes. I also believe, looking at social media now, the post by Joe Cam and Cal has been deleted. What does that mean? Typically when that happens, it means that somebody has regretted posting something. Do I think Joe Kamikow posted that? I do. Do I think Joe Kamikow is telling the truth about the Harry Potter license being secured? I do. And that it was secured by none other than Jersey Jack Pimble?
    10:08
    I do. There was no fake account. There was no hacking. If I'm reading into this, that's Joe Kamikow professing the truth in a whim because he was upset. Joe Kamenkow is kind of known as the king of licenses. It's like him and Roger Sharp. They can get the licenses that people struggle to get.
    10:28
    Kamenkow brought us the Beatles. Over a million dollars to secure that license alone. And I would put money down that Kamenkow was working to secure Harry Potter as well for Pinball. For his studio company, Kapow Pinball. Remember, Kapow Pinball partners with Stern Pinball for manufacturing purposes and design purposes, etc. to bring us things like the Beatles or Batman 66. I thought there was a good likelihood that we would see a Kapow Pinball, Stern Pinball partnership for Harry Potter. But what happened? That's why, in my opinion, there is truth to this post. Because motive-wise, if Joe Kamenkow, for whatever reason, was not part of securing that license for pinball, then he wouldn't be a part of that license for pinball. Thus, he would be placed into the background, which does nothing to really help or hurt his brand. So he gets out in front of it here and says, hey, let me give you all a heads up. Harry Potter pinball is happening and Jersey Jack pinball secured it. How does that help his brand? Well, it shows that he's still the king. He's bringing people the goods that they want to hear. And in a way, if he sees Jersey Jack pinball as a form of competition, then it really does nothing to help that company either because if consumers know Harry Potter pinball is coming from a Jersey Jack pinball, they might be a little bit more reluctant to pull the trigger on current products or future products that come before Harry Potter pinball. So it's kind of like a, I'm pissed off, I'm feeling some frustration, here's a kick in the nuts as I pop the deuces in the air and walk away. Now, I've heard a lot of people speculate, you know, he's just throwing a tantrum because he didn't get the license. That could be true I have no clue But consider other reasons as well Ask yourself why else might Cam and Cal be frustrated
    12:13
    So there you have it. I believe that this is the real deal. And while I have no information to confirm, I'm just telling y'all, I think Jersey Jack Pinball secured the license for Harry Potter Pinball. And if that were to be true, it doesn't feel like a next release kind of thing. And that's because, to me, this feels more recent. I don't think Joe Kamenkaus sits on this info for a ton of time, you know, for a year or more. Thus, I do think that Steve Ritchie is releasing a game next for Jersey Jack Pinball. And I do believe that whatever he is working on was done so prior to them potentially getting this license. It's just, again, a gut feeling. Does that mean it's next after Ritchie's? because I think we see Richie's at the end of the year. And if you listen to Canadian Spinball Podcast, he says it's the Matrix.
    13:05
    And that's why you pay him the big bucks, right? Wink. But we still have Mark Seiden, too. He's a designer. Does Mark Seiden get a Harry Potter license? No.
    13:17
    Maybe. No. Possibly. No. Stop. It does feel like a Steve Richie type of license. license he's he's done star wars he's done terminator he's done the biggest and the best and again eric menier his games have been heralded kind of as the best the company's had maybe professor lawler snape comes in out of retirement to design harry potter chill out people stop stop don't turn this don't turn the show off don't stop i'm just joking but who knows why now why why why are we receiving some indications of this license being secured now to that i would say why not seems like a perfect time to me hell there's a tv adaptation coming on max here soon about harry potter the recent video game about hogwarts and harry potter and poking each other with wands that game was a hit i think jk rowling got herself into hot cauldron water a couple years back with some of the political things she was saying publicly. I think ever since then, we get out of COVID, and they've been selling the hell out of this license to all kinds of things, like video games or TV adaptations, etc. So those are my quick thoughts on the potential for Harry Potter pinball. I believe it's happening. I believe it is Jersey Jack pinball. And I believe it's going to be fucking amazing. And in many ways, will change the landscape of this industry. Hey, JJP, if all this is true, wow.
    14:53
    Don't mess up this opportunity. Don't mess it up. Make sure to tune in to next week's episode of the Pinball Show 128, where Dennis and I speak further about a potential Harry Potter pinball machine being made. Are we going to get film assets? Is it going to be based on the novel? Is this going to be a stripped-down Pirates of the Caribbean world of? When's it going to be here? Who's going to design it? Rest assured, there will be more information trickling out. I can almost guarantee you. And the place to hear that is none other than the pinball show. I want to thank you all for the support, being part of the club membership. Make that upgrade. We've got the TPS live Zoom hangout for those part of the Screaming Goat and Nordman levels on Patreon. We've got that coming up May 31st at 8 p.m. Central. If you're on that $10 level, jump it up to $25. Join us for that. And if you're at the $25 level, get yourself a nickname and jump up to that Screaming Goat $100 a month paywall polo level. It'll be fine. And until then, always practice safe pinball. And don't wait. Don't speculate. Lock that wizard in. And above all, don't let the moguls get you down. You're a wizard, Harry. Peace.