Episode 1113: "Can a Stern Price Increase Work?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·22m 50s·analyzed·Jul 14, 2025

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.034

TL;DR

Stern faces market oversaturation; must limit LEs and improve games to justify price increases.

Summary

Kaneda analyzes whether Stern can justify raising prices amid market oversaturation, LE depreciation, and declining excitement around new releases. He argues Stern must limit LE production to 500 units, improve playfield design and code quality, and deliver a hit with the rumored Star Wars game coming in ~30–40 days. He contrasts Stern's struggles with Jersey Jack's Harry Potter success and warns that secondary-market losses on recent LEs (Kong, Venom, John Wick, Foo Fighters) are destroying collector confidence and LE FOMO.

Key Claims

Kong LE has lost nearly $3,000 in value in three months
high confidence · Kaneda, opening statement about Kong LEs losing $3k in three months
Stern needs to limit all LEs to 500 units maximum to preserve FOMO and collectibility
high confidence · Kaneda's core argument: 'Every LE needs to go back to being only 500 units'
King Kong has not sold well and Stern needs a hit
high confidence · Kaneda: 'with King Kong not selling well they are definitely in a position where they need to get that next cornerstone out'
Next Stern cornerstone (presumed Star Wars) will arrive in 30–40 days, approximately August
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'I think by the end of August, we will see the reveal of the next Stern machine' based on 4-month cornerstone cycle
Stern's last major volume hit was Godzilla, not Jaws
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'I think the last big hit for Stern really was Godzilla... It was not Dungeons and Dragons. It was not John Wick'
Harry Potter (Jersey Jack) is a hit game with strong demand and positive reception
high confidence · Kaneda: 'Jersey Jack has got a hit game on its hands. Harry Potter is a hit. A lot of people want this game.'
Jaws 50th and Metallica Remastered are the only two recent Stern games that held value
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'the only two games over the last four years that have held value, Jaws, and maybe Metallica Remastered'
Stern Pinball headquarters is less than 10 minutes away from Jersey Jack and much larger
high confidence · Kaneda: 'Jersey Jack, which is just down the block. If you've ever been to Jersey Jack, you realize Stern Pinball is like less than 10 minutes away'
Steve Ritchie's original Star Wars sold approximately 8,000 units
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'Stern Pinball, Steve Ritchie's Star Wars, which wasn't a great pin, sold about 8,000 units'

Notable Quotes

“Every LE needs to go back to being only 500 units. They have to do that. This 800 and something or 1000, it just doesn't work.”
Kaneda @ ~2:00–2:30 — Core argument about supply-side strategy to restore LE FOMO and value retention
“You need that. You shouldn't be trying to take all the money yourself, Stern, because if you never see a game hold strong on the secondhand market like that, and then everything else, the Venoms, the John Wicks, all the other games, the Foo Fighters are losing $3,000 to $5,000 in value, you've got to course correct.”
Kaneda @ ~2:30–3:00 — Directly addresses Stern's pricing strategy and market failure; warns of cascading depreciation
“How much different is that game than a John Wick on a Spike 2? King Kong? If you put them next to each other and you told people this is six years later, six years of innovation going from this game to this game, they wouldn't even notice a difference.”
Kaneda @ ~6:00–6:30 — Questions whether prices justify technological/mechanical innovation over six years
“Start the countdown to Star Wars, people. It's coming maybe in like 30 to 40 days... I think by the end of August, we will see the reveal of the next Stern machine.”
Kaneda @ ~7:00–7:30 — Predicts next cornerstone release timing based on Stern's 4-month cycle; signals major upcoming reveal
“Jersey Jack would fit as an entire company would fit inside the lobby of Stern Pinball... Jersey Jack, though, has got a hit game on its hands. Harry Potter is a hit.”
Kaneda @ ~8:30–9:00 — Contrasts company size/success; validates Jersey Jack's market position with Harry Potter
“I'm falling out of love. I mean this, I'm falling out of love with a lot of the things I used to really value... I'm falling out of love with a lot of the things I used to really value.”
Kaneda @ ~27:00–28:00 — Personal sentiment shift from veteran collector; reflects fatigue with luxury/FOMO dynamics
“What was the last truly magical, mechanical thing you saw a pinball machine do? If I just asked you that over the last four years, what was the last mechanically magical thing you saw someone put under glass?”

Entities

Kanedaperson Stern Pinball Inc.company Jersey Jack Pinballcompany Harry Pottergame King Konggame Jaws 50th

Signals

$
market_signal: Kong LE lost ~$3,000 in value in 3 months; recent LEs (Venom, John Wick, Foo Fighters) losing $3k–$5k in 3–4 months; only Jaws 50th and Metallica Remastered holding value
high · Kaneda: 'I did not think in just three months now, we are losing nearly $3,000 in value' and 'the only two games over the last four years that have held value, Jaws, and maybe Metallica Remastered'
?
product_strategy: Kaneda argues Stern must revert LE production to 500 units max to preserve FOMO and collectibility; current 800–1,000 unit runs are diluting secondary market value
high · Kaneda: 'Every LE needs to go back to being only 500 units... This 800 and something or 1000, it just doesn't work.'
~
sentiment_shift: Veteran collector expressing fatigue with FOMO, luxury spending, and hobby dynamics; notes declining excitement around new launches compared to past years
high · Kaneda: 'I'm falling out of love... I really am feeling more and more like the most valuable thing in the world is peace of mind' and 'I think what's starting to fade away... just that excitement and enthusiasm around a new pinball launch'
?
design_philosophy: Kaneda criticizes recent games for absence of mechanical 'magic' and innovation; questions whether price increases are justified by design advances over past 6 years
high · Kaneda: 'If you put them next to each other and you told people this is six years later... they wouldn't even notice a difference. The only thing that's changed is the price tag.'
$
market_signal: Kaneda identifies market saturation and physical space scarcity as primary barriers to growth, more limiting than price alone; questions consumer enthusiasm for new-in-box purchases

Topics

LE depreciation and secondary market collapseprimaryStern's pricing strategy and price increase feasibilityprimarySupply-side strategy: LE production limits and FOMO preservationprimaryMarket oversaturation and lack of physical space for new machinesprimaryGame design innovation and playfield/code quality concernsprimaryStern vs. Jersey Jack competitive positioningsecondaryRumored Star Wars cornerstone announcement timingprimaryCollector fatigue and declining hobby enthusiasmsecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.72)— Kaneda expresses deep concern about market fundamentals, LE depreciation, lack of design innovation, and collector confidence erosion. While he acknowledges Jersey Jack's success with Harry Potter and optimism about Star Wars potential, the dominant tone is critical of Stern's current strategy, skeptical of price increases, and pessimistic about the hobby's near-term direction. Personal asides about aging and shifting values reinforce a weary, disillusioned sentiment.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.068

Welcome everybody to Canadian Pinball Podcast, the only pinball podcast that holds value. Wow, these Kong LEs, I did not think in just three months now, we are losing nearly $3,000 in value, it's hard not to justify just getting a pro machine because a pro is not going from $6,500 to $3,500 in three months, but these LEs are all sliding down really quickly. So it begs the question on this episode of Canada's Pinball Podcast, can Stern Pinball with a straight face looking at the current market conditions. Can Stern Pinball actually increase the price of its product? Can it actually make every single model $500 more is what I'm hearing in the near future. How are they going to pull this off? There's only one way to actually pull this off. If they have the greatest themes, the greatest games where people see the value, the other thing they just have to do, there's like no way around this. Every LE needs to go back to being only 500 units. They have to do that. This 800 and something or 1000, it just doesn't work. Even Jaws LE should only be 500 units because for this entire FOMO collectible space to survive, you do need some games to go up significantly. Like, so if they only made 500 Jaws LEs at 13,000 a pop, it's okay if every once in a while a special game like this comes out and then those LEs become worth $18,000, maybe even $20,000. You need that. You shouldn't be trying to take all the money yourself, Stern, because if you never see a game hold strong on the secondhand market like that, and then everything else, the Venoms, the John Wicks, all the other games, the Foo Fighters are losing $3,000 to $5,000 in value, you've got to course correct. And I don't know if more people have come into this hobby since COVID or if the numbers are less. All I know is this. I don't see pinball like growing exponentially. How can it? How can a hobby that used to be so much more affordable grow exponentially? And I think everybody realizes the rest of the world's gone crazy, right? The rest of the world is really expensive. If I went out to get one beer, one Michelob Ultra to watch the Wimbledon final, and I'm sitting at the bar, one beer with tax and tip is $10 for one beer. And that's not even as expensive as it gets. And then you go and you eat out now. Ever take your wife out for a decent dinner now? What's the bill? Ever go see an IMAX movie? We saw F1 and IMAX, four people for tickets and popcorn and soda, four people to go to the movies, $200, $200. So in the grand scheme of everything happening and all the bills hitting us, your insurance has gone up. This has gone up. That has gone up. What hasn't really gone up for most people are their wages. Like they just haven't. People are not making as much as they should to keep up with all of this inflation. Now, in some areas, it's gotten better. I went to Best Buy this week and I was looking at like large TVs and I'm like, wow, you can get like a 77 inch OLED TV now for like twenty five hundred bucks. I remember when 70, 80 inch TVs were like ten thousand dollars. But that's what technology is supposed to do. You're supposed to get more for your money. And if you think about pinball, are we getting more for our money? Is there more being put into these games to justify the prices? Or are we paying a heck of a lot more for what is ostensibly the same exact product we were getting five, six, seven years ago? If you go look at a Stern Spike One game with the LCD screen, how much different, think about it. How much different is that game than a John Wick on a Spike 2? How much different is that game than a King Kong? If you put them next to each other and you told people this is six years later, six years of innovation going from this game to this game, they wouldn't even notice a difference. The only thing that's changed is the price tag. And so as we think about where we're right now in pinball, I'm starting to get excited because as I counted the months, King Kong has been out for three months exactly tomorrow Three months It came out April 15th That means if we go by Stern own Ryan Policky of three cornerstone games a year that means one cornerstone game every four months. We are one month away from the next Stern machine. Start the countdown to Star Wars, people. It's coming maybe in like 30 to 40 days. Jaws 50th does not count as a cornerstone Jaws 50th does not delay when Stern needs to put the next game on the line and with King Kong not selling well they are definitely in a position where they need to get that next cornerstone out and Stern needs a hit what was the last big hit over at Stern Pinball? was it Jaws? I don't know I don't think Jaws sold at the volume people think. I think the Ellies did well. But other than that, Jaws has not been a huge volume mover. It was not Dungeons and Dragons. It was not John Wick. It's been a while. I think the last big hit for Stern really was Godzilla. And so this is a company right now that's got this ginormous factory. They've got hundreds of employees. They make hundreds of games a week. They are definitely in a position where they oversaturate the market when a game is not great and they fulfill the market demand when a game is great. And that's the good part of Stern. If they come out with Star Wars episode four, five and six, and it is magical, even if it has a price increase, I think it's going to sell tremendously well and you're going to be able to get it right away. Now, I do think Stern needs to up their game. I do. I think their games are looking dull. I think their games are looking repetitive. They're looking all the same. And they need to figure some stuff out. They need to get the playfields nicer. Those playfields on the recent Stern games, they're really dull. They don't really have much clear code. They got to work on that. They got to work on getting these games code complete for this much money. They got to reduce the number of LVs so there's some FOMO and collectability going. back in the Stern collectible base. And they just have to forget about the COVID frenzy. It's over. So are we going to see Star Wars sometime in August? I think we are. I think by the end of August, we will see the reveal of the next Stern machine. And they have to be looking over at Jersey Jack, which is just down the block. If you've ever been to Jersey Jack, you realize Stern Pinball is like less than 10 minutes away. And Jersey Jack would fit as an entire company would fit inside the lobby of Stern Pinball. That's how big Stern Pinball is if you've never visited the new headquarters. And so Jersey Jack, though, has got a hit game on its hands. Harry Potter is a hit. A lot of people want this game. A lot of people are ordering this game. A lot of people are praising this game. And that's what they need it. And that's what they have. So that is a really good thing for Jersey Jack pinball. I still think the game on a code level, you know how I feel. It's a little all over the place, but that's just Jersey Jack's way of making pinball machines. Everything's on at the same time, everything louder than everything else. But at least on this game, what is coming at you is Harry Potter in all of its asset glory. and the game shoots really well. And it's just beautiful. I think all of that is just winning people over and a lot of people want one. And if I were you, the model to get is the arcade edition. Why? You are not gonna have more fun paying more money. And I think especially if you're just putting this game into a lineup of games in which you're not even gonna see the cabinet artwork, you might as well just go arcade edition. Now, the one issue will be they're not making that many games a week, and they've probably got a few thousand orders for Harry Potter. They're going to be making this game for years to come. Notice how they haven't even announced an order window for the CEs to go out of production. So they're going to make as many CEs as people want for as many years as you want it. They're also going to make the wizard edition and the arcade edition of the game, but it's a big hit. This is a big hit. They went all in. They got all the assets. They got everything people wanted and they packed it into a pinball machine. And nobody who buys Harry Potter is feeling like they didn't get what they wanted in the license. I think everyone who's looking at King Kong is like, we're not getting what King Kong is all about. And so that is why Kong is sort of dying on the vine. And so as we look at Star Wars, I think everybody's optimistic. Everybody's hopeful because Stern, last time they made Star Wars, had all of the assets. And I think if they go back and they repackage those three iconic movies in a much more enjoyable pin. And by the way, Stern Pinball, Steve Ritchie's Star Wars, which wasn't a great pin, sold about 8,000 units. So if you're Seth and you're George and you need to move volume right now just go back and remake it Yeah they not going to care about burning all of those original Star Wars owners What will be funny is if they do go back and make the original three movies what does then happen to all of those Star Wars that are out there? I mean, now you've got 8,000 more games potentially that are going to flood the secondhand market and take a huge loss. I'm really worried about two words that start with S. saturation and space those are the two things more than price it's saturation we are in an oversaturated market and people are out of space there's no getting around that and the only way you can get around that if you're these manufacturers is if you make something that makes people want to free up space to put that game in their home. I just don't know. I mean, these are not Rolex watches that you can just open up the drawer and throw another one in. I don't know how much longer people are going to be enthusiastic about buying new in box. I've been saying it for the last few years. I've been saying it since COVID. wait and see is the smart thing i mean imagine if you had a friend who three months ago bought a kong le and now he can go get a game with like a hundred plays on it and save basically three thousand dollars how many times and this is the great Keith Elwin how many times are these people going to get burned. Everybody, everybody who went in, James Bond, Foo Fighters, Venom, John Wick, King Kong, the only two games over the last four years that have held value, Jaws, and maybe Metallica Remastered, which is not even a new game. When is this going to break? When is the damn gonna break. They might as well either just not make LEs anymore or bring back what made an LE special. I think that's it. I think that is absolutely it because I think some of these newbies forget that without the LE FOMO, all of the other sales that Stern got from its pros and premiums, all of that was tied to a distro needing to secure its allotment of an LE game. I'm not going to get my 20 LEs unless I commit to buying this many premiums and pros. And so what happens now as all these consumers are fully aware now how important it is to wait and see? Because if you do, you're saving thousands of dollars in just a few months. It's almost like I want to be wrong. I really do want to be wrong. Like I want you guys who are buying Harry Potter CE for 15. I want you guys. By the time this code is 1.0, I guarantee you your Harry Potter CE will be $10,000. I don't want you to lose $5,000 and you're going to be playing a game that's not completed for like another year. And if you're just a little bit patient, you could have the same exact game. Now I know the argument, the argument is Canada, but I'm having fun now. And it's all about the year and now. And yeah, I'm not wrong and you're not wrong. And yet it is totally subjective. Absolutely. Everybody individually needs to figure out how much do I live for today? And how much do I live for tomorrow? And what does this mean to me right now? For some of you out there, none of the losses even matter. It doesn't matter. You just want to have fun today. I get it. I live in a town where some people can go out and eat every single day. I couldn't do that. If I did that, I'd financially be feeling stressed out. If I go once or twice a week, then I enjoy it. That's the pace at which I can live. And everybody's different. Everybody's different. As I get older, as I get older, I really am feeling more and more like the most valuable thing in the world is peace of mind. And my dad used to say this to me. He still says it to me. He's still alive. But you really can't put a price on peace of mind. And I know just me, I really would not have peace of mind if I spent $13,000 on a stern King Kong LE. and then three months later, I saw I could get it for $3,000 less. I would not have peace of mind spending $15,000 on Potter and then losing thousands of dollars because they're gonna make an unlimited amount. I'm falling out of love. I mean this, I'm falling out of love with a lot of the things I used to really value. And it's interesting as you get older, you realize like, well, you know, nobody really cares about clothing with labels. I've got some really fun clothes that have a bunch of loud stuff all over it. And every once in a while, it's still fun to put it on, but I don't care anymore. I really don't. It was different in New York City. It was much more of a vacuum of vanity that you get trapped in and you wanna look good when you walk into a place. And yeah, I still do look good, but I realize as you get older too, if you take physically good care of yourself, you will look good in almost anything other than cargo shorts, okay? And so take care of your body. and if you feel good and you look good and I know the world today people it an interesting world Everyone taking the shortcuts Everyone I mean on my block alone where I live there a bunch of people on Ozempic and they losing weight fast. And it's interesting watching people within one year, like significantly lose a ton of weight. I hope it works out for them. I don't know what the long-term effects are, but I also know I don't see those people at the gym. It's not going to change who you are inside. It's not going to change your habits. And so as I think about as I get older and I get closer to being 50 years of age, I really am thinking a lot more about what decisions I make. And it is crazy when you think about it. I know we don't normally do this, but just four years ago, if you invested your money in Bitcoin and not pinball machines, you don't want to see the difference. And I know people are like, well, pinball is not an investment. Yes and no. Yes and no. If you ask most Americans, if you had $15,000 lying around, where would you put it? I don't know if pinball machines would be anywhere near where they would put that money. And I don't know about you. It is still a significant purchase. And I think what's starting to fade away, and I'm not sure if we'll really ever get it back. And maybe it's just because a lot of us have been in this hobby for a while. Just that excitement and enthusiasm around a new pinball launch. There used to be a lot more excitement and enthusiasm. There just used to be. Maybe it's the price that's fatiguing us. I would argue it's a combination of the prices, the lack of magic in the games. When was the last time? If I asked you guys this, you guys are dialed into pinball as a hobby. What was the last truly magical, mechanical thing you saw a pinball machine do? Okay? If I just asked you that over the last four years, what was the last mechanically magical thing you saw someone put under glass? What would you say? Think about all the games. James Bond, Jaws, Venom, John Wick, Elton John, Godfather, Harry Potter, you've got Evil Dead, you've got, what else, we got Halloween, you've got Pulp Fiction, you've got Alice's Adventures in Wonderland. What was the last thing that made you go, wow, you've got Dune, is it the worm in dune? I don't know because you might not like dune. That worm might do nothing for you. But that's my point. Somewhere, somewhere in this world under glass that we all love, that should be an easy, easy, you should be struggling over five magical things. It should make you smile thinking about which one of those five magical things you're going to tell me is the magical thing. And the sad part is at these prices, you have nothing. You have nothing to say. And we've been gaslit and you know it and you know it. So yeah, welcome to 2025. Harry Potter is packed even though it has nothing in it below the glass that is packed and everyone's going to justify it. And the more Neil McRae says King Kong is amazing, the more the price goes down. So Neil, he should be sandbagging this game and maybe the price will go up. Gang, 30 days away from the next Stern machine. The countdown to Star Wars has begun. Will this hobby course correct? And is Stern going to increase the price? And if they increase the price, they need to limit the supply. These are basic economic factors and market factors that I am so curious to see what happens. I know you are too. Everybody have a great Monday. We're going to be back this week. Maybe Cuphead comes out this week. Who knows? But every week, it's always really interesting to follow this market. And I'm telling you where the fun is at. It's where we're at right now. Like listening to pinball content doesn't cost too much. Five bucks a month. You got to admit, if you followed my advice, I have saved you thousands of dollars. and if you rushed after these new inbox games like other content creators they have cost you thousands of dollars because you didn't listen to Kaneda this is the best five dollars of advice you could ever ever get I should be a financial advisor and not a pinball content creator everybody have a great Monday we'll talk to you soon Yes, I am Cause I'm a punk rocker Yes, I am Well, I'm a punk rocker Yes, I am Cause I'm a punk rocker Yes, I am Well, I'm a punk rocker Yes, I am I'm sorry.