Episode 854: "Creamium for a Premium"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·18m 35s·analyzed·Oct 4, 2023

Analysis

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TL;DR

Stern's Stranger Things rerun signals aggressive vault strategy; Back to the Future rumored for Dutch Pinball.

Summary

Kaneda discusses Stern's rerun of Stranger Things as a strategic market move to capture FOMO and control narrative timing ahead of Pinball Expo. He analyzes the secondary market collapse implications, criticizes Stern for not including UV kits at factory, predicts future anniversary reruns of Godzilla and Batman 66, and reports an unconfirmed rumor that Dutch Pinball is developing Back to the Future. He also critiques Jersey Jack Pinball's theme selection and pricing strategy as fundamental business failures.

Key Claims

Stern is strategically going after its own secondhand market with Jurassic Park and Stranger Things reruns to capture FOMO at higher prices
high confidence · Kaneda's analysis of Stern's marketplace strategy based on observed pricing patterns during COVID and recent rerun announcements
Stern will rerun Godzilla LE and Batman 66 (50th anniversary edition) with new anniversary variants within 2-4 years
medium confidence · Kaneda's speculation based on pattern of Stranger Things rerun and upcoming Batman 66 60th anniversary
New Stranger Things rerun has a new projector that mounts differently than the original; it's due to projector sourcing constraints, not picture quality improvement
medium confidence · Kaneda's technical analysis of why projector changed after 2-3 years in production
Stern did not include UV kit at factory despite it being the most desirable feature, which is lazy and anti-consumer
high confidence · Kaneda's direct criticism of Stern's manufacturing decision for new Stranger Things run
Stern announced Stranger Things rerun outside of a major show to control narrative and set industry agenda, similar to Foo Fighters launch during Texas Pinball Festival prep
high confidence · Kaneda's analysis of Stern's marketing timing and strategic advantage over competitors
Back to the Future is being developed by Dutch Pinball (unconfirmed rumor from a good source)
low confidence · Kaneda's explicit caveat: 'I'm not 100% sure, but I have from a good source' regarding Dutch Pinball making Back to the Future with Roger Sharp handling IP deal
Jersey Jack Pinball should price next game (Elton John CE) at $13,500 and remove topper to separate it as accessory to compete with Stern's pricing strategy
medium confidence · Kaneda's unsolicited business advice to Jersey Jack based on market analysis and Stern's accessory model
Jersey Jack Pinball has fundamentally failed with last two games (Toy Story 4, The Godfather) due to poor theme selection and pricing; company has not progressed in 10 years

Notable Quotes

“Stern has allocated how many premiums every distributor is going to get... Stern did not say this is the final run of Stranger Things. This is just this run of Stranger Things.”
Kaneda @ ~13:00 — Establishes Stern's ambiguous messaging allowing future reruns without explicit commitment
“Lazy Stern did not install the UV kit from the factory. What a joke... Moves like these that make it so hard to just universally love Stern Pinball.”
Kaneda @ ~18:30 — Criticism of Stern's manufacturing decisions and customer value prioritization
“They didn't need to launch this game right now... But what did Stern Pinball do? Once again they prove to everybody out there in the pinball manufacturing space... you don't need to reveal a major game at a pinball show.”
Kaneda @ ~24:00 — Analysis of Stern's narrative control strategy and timing advantage over competitors
“I am hearing that the company that is making Back to the Future is Dutch Pinball... Roger Sharp is the guy inking deals with Dutch Pinball.”
Kaneda @ ~33:00 — Unconfirmed rumor with low confidence; Kaneda explicitly caveat this with 'I'm not 100% sure'
“Jersey Jack Pinball hasn't progressed. Have they? I mean, look at their last two games. They are some of the two most uninspired games they've ever made. And we're 10 years into this company's history. It's absolutely embarrassing.”
Kaneda @ ~45:00 — Harsh assessment of Jersey Jack's creative and business trajectory
“Every day we get closer to Jaws is another closed opportunity on Jersey Jack finding some room to sell this new game.”
Kaneda @ ~42:00 — Indicates Jaws as competitive threat and Jersey Jack's marketing timing disadvantage
“The entire pinball market and the entire culture has shifted over the last four years... Nowadays you either gonna lose a lot of money a little money, or your game will break even. The days of these games going up and up and up in value, they're over.”
Kaneda — Macro-level market sentiment shift regarding secondary market depreciation

Entities

Stern PinballcompanyKanedaperson Jersey Jack Pinballcompany Dutch PinballcompanyRoger SharppersonStranger Thingsgame

Signals

?
business_signal: Jersey Jack Pinball facing serious business pressure; having 'real serious conversations about lowering price of next game' after two consecutive failures with strong IP (Toy Story 4, The Godfather)
medium · Kaneda: 'Jersey Jack is having real serious conversations about lowering the price of the next game. They have to. They've tried something. It's failed. It's failed twice.'
?
competitive_signal: Jaws 50th Anniversary positioned as major market threat pulling customer attention away from Jersey Jack Elton John and other manufacturers' upcoming releases
high · Kaneda: 'Every day we get closer to Jaws is another opportunity missed by all these other pinball companies... A lot of people are going to go get Stranger Things. A lot of people are passing on Venom. A lot of people, the most people out there are just waiting for Jaws.'
$
market_signal: Secondary market for pinball machines undergoing fundamental collapse; games no longer appreciate in value, majority will depreciate, end of COVID-era FOMO pricing
high · Kaneda: 'The entire pinball market and the entire culture has shifted over the last four years... The days of these games going up and up and up in value, they're over.'
$
market_signal: Stern's announcement of Stranger Things rerun outside of Pinball Expo demonstrates consistent strategy of narrative control and agenda-setting independent of major industry events
high · Kaneda: 'They didn't need to launch this game right now... But what did Stern do? Once again they prove you don't need to reveal a major game at a pinball show. Everybody waiting to reveal their game at Pinball Expo now must feel a little silly.'
?

Topics

Stern Pinball vault rerun strategy and secondary market collapseprimaryFOMO-driven collector market and pinball game resale value depreciationprimaryStern's narrative control and timing advantage over competitorsprimaryBack to the Future rumor and Dutch Pinball licensing dealprimaryJersey Jack Pinball's business failures and market positioningprimaryPinball Expo expectations and competitive threats from upcoming releasessecondaryThree-tier (Pro/Premium/LE) pricing model sustainability and marginssecondaryStranger Things technical updates (projector change, missing UV kit)secondary

Sentiment

mixed(0.35)— Kaneda is energized and optimistic about industry drama and market shifts, excited by Stranger Things announcement and potential Back to the Future news, but deeply critical of Jersey Jack Pinball's strategic failures, Stern's lazy manufacturing decisions (UV kit), and broader concerns about FOMO-driven market collapse. Positioning himself as independent voice calling out industry dysfunction while claiming no agenda.

Transcript

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Welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. The rumors are true. Stranger Things is back, people, as Kaneda predicted. Is Kaneda going to go two for two? Is the mystery pin going to be labyrinth? Naps Arcade, thank you so much for the love and the shout-outs. I want to give a shout out to our latest Patreon members, everybody. Let's welcome Jethro, Joey, Andre, Andy, Chase, SGPin, Justin, Juergen, Bob, Chris, Robert Blakeman, everybody. Welcome to Canadas Pinball Podcast. And we've had more people upping their subscription amounts. I'm going to give those people a special shout out on the next show of Canadas Pinball Podcast. And if you want to raise your donation, we're not going to protest. $5 a month. I know you guys got it. All right, let's talk about Stranger Things coming back. I know I said it was a vault edition, and I know there's a lot of, like, confusion. I don't think anyone really knows what makes a vault edition and what makes a rerun of a Stern machine. But what I do know is this. The game is back, and it was so fun yesterday watching all of these people trying to unload their Stranger Things pros and premiums on the eve of this announcement. because you know, during the COVID period, people were getting like $13,000 to $14,000 for Stranger Things premiums. They were getting like $9,000 to $10,000 for Stranger Things Pro editions. And the reason why is this game didn't sell very well when it initially came out. And so they didn't have a lot of them out in the world. And now they're rerunning them. And here's the funny part about all of this. This is what Stern Pinball has wanted all along, everybody. Everybody has FOMO for a premium and a pro. Unbelievable. And this was the greatest Trojan horse marketing move in the history of pinball. That Stern pinball has created a legion of crazy people that have FOMO to get a premium unlimited machine. To get a pro unlimited machine. But how funny was it seeing people list like Stranger Things pro for $10,000 on Monday night. A Stranger Things premium went up for sale after they announced this rerun for $12,000. You can get a brand new one in a box for like $9,600. Why would you buy a used one for $12,000? And here's the greatest kicker. The machine itself had 12,000 plays on it. I think a lot of these people are delusional. And now we know Stern's strategy, people. In the last few months, Stern Pinball has absolutely gone after its own secondhand market on two of the hottest titles during COVID, Jurassic Park and Stranger Things. Look at what they've done. And I think this is a sign of things to come. And if you think what you're holding on to now is going to hold a lot of value, you're wrong. All of you Godzilla LE owners, trust me, you're next. They're going to make an anniversary edition of Godzilla. Stern is simply going on to the pinball marketplace and seeing which games are people paying over for. As a Batman 66 SLE owner, I'm also nervous because, heck, in two years, it's the 60th anniversary of Batman. So are they going to make a 60th anniversary edition and then trump all of us SLE owners who have the 50th anniversary edition? It's also going to be the 40th anniversary of Stern. Uh-oh, look at that right there. It's nice and clean for them. They're going to make 60 versions of Batman and 40 versions of Stern for a new rerun of a 100 exclusive super, super limited edition run of Batman 66. And you know what this is going to do to the entire hobby? It's actually going to make everybody settle down a little bit. It's going to kill even more of the FOMO. It's going to kill even more of the secondhand scalping market. And it's going to make sure that everyone does one thing, which is probably the healthiest thing to do. Just buy a game because you love it. Buy a game because you want to own it. Buy a game because it makes your family happy. Buy a game because you want to own it forever because you're not looking at the resale value. You're not thinking what you can get out of it when you're done playing it. And that is the only reason why you should buy a pinball machine. The entire pinball market and the entire culture has shifted over the last four years You used to be able to buy everything and you didn lose much money Nowadays you either gonna lose a lot of money a little money, or your game will break even. The days of these games going up and up and up in value, they're over. And if you don't think Stern's gonna make more Stranger Things LEs when it's an anniversary year of Stranger Things, you're dead wrong. Of course they are. They know they can sell another 500 instantly, put another two to $3 million in the bank and move on to the next game. All right, so let's talk about this rerun. So look, a lot of confusion. What we know is this, there's a pro and a premium. The pro is $7,000. The premium is 9,700 bucks. I'm seeing dealers sell it for 9,500. It is not sold out everywhere. I've been seeing people being like, oh my gosh, it's out of stock. What's happening is this, Stern has allocated how many premiums every distributor is going to get. So yes, certain distributors will sell out. Certain distributors have more available. We don't know how many Stern is going to make. But what we also know is this. Stern did not say, and this is a very important part. Stern did not say this is the final run of Stranger Things. This is just this run of Stranger Things. With all of the newbies coming into this hobby that have absolutely no clue what's going on in pinball. They have no clue of the historical things that have occurred in this hobby. They have no clue whatsoever. All these newbies, you know the guys, they're starting to grab microphones. They're starting to do shows. They only know this hobby for two years. These guys have no clue. And there's more and more of these guys coming into the hobby every single year. And so what do you think is going to happen, right? This theme is still going to be so strong for years and years and years. It is the second most popular Netflix show of all time. And when someone's shopping for a pinball machine for the family and they go into a pinball showroom, right, these newbies, they're going to see stuff like Star Wars and be like, oh, Star Wars. They're going to see Stranger Things and be like, oh, Stranger Things. They might see like a Ghostbusters premium left over for $14,000 and be like, oh, Ghostbusters. But this theme will always hold a lot of value. And so I can see Stern rerunning this machine again a year from now, because as more people come into the hobby and there's no new in box Stranger Things games available because this allotment will sell out, they can just rerun it. And so now until the end of time, this is going to be Stern's strategy. Even if they have a failure of a game like Venom, it doesn't matter. They can just go back to the vault, run another few thousand, put a few more million in the bank. And guess what everybody else in the pinball industry is doing? They're standing there with their hands in their pockets doing absolutely nothing. This was the other thing I thought about when Stern dropped this game on the world. Oh, before I go into this, I wanted to say this. Yes, there is a new projector in the game. Yes, I am disappointed that Lazy Stern did not install the UV kit from the factory. What a joke. Come on. You're building the game. You know everyone's going to want the UV kit, whether it's a pro or a premium. Who's not going to want the UV kit? Find me somebody out there who doesn't want the coolest feature this game offers, and then you're too lazy to install it at the factory. It's moves like these that make it so hard to just universally love Stern Pinball. Why don't they put the consumer's interest in front of their own? Name me one consumer who doesn't want the UV kit. Stern, shame on you for not installing it at the factory. And yes, there's a new projector in the game, and it's most likely this reason, people. It's been like two, three years. And I'm sure like the projector industry advances and makes new additions or models and Stern probably can't find the exact model that they put into the original game. So they sourced a new projector, which is simply gonna mount differently in the game. I don't think it's gonna be like a better picture or anything, but you're not gonna be able to like backwards mount it. And if you buy the new machine, it is gonna have holes drilled for the new projector and mounts for the new projector. And I think that's it. So we can stop the debate. I see these wackos saying like, the older Stranger Things premiums are gonna lose a lot more value now because they have the old projector. I don't think so at all. I think it's gonna be the same exact gaming experience. All right, but look what Stern did and look at the timing in which they did it. They didn't need to launch this game right now. They easily could have waited a few more months. They could have announced this at Expo. But what did Stern Pinball do? once again they prove to everybody out there in the pinball manufacturing space in the pinball marketing space in the pinball company space you don need to reveal a major game or major news at a pinball show Everybody waiting to reveal their game at Pinball Expo now must feel a little silly We saw it last March. What did Stern do? As everybody was prepping to launch their games at Texas Pinball Festival, Stern swoops in and launches Foo Fighters and gets thousands of orders and sets the agenda. They control the narrative and everyone else is looking foolish. They're looking silly and they're waiting for the show. And we saw during COVID, we had some of the hottest pinball sales of all time without a single pinball show, without a single machine arriving at an event. You don't need it. You have something called the internet. And Stern, once again, is setting the agenda. They're setting the tone. And then they get to rock up at this show now and have Venoms ready to go, Stranger Things ready to go. And they're going to sell a lot of them. and everyone else is going to do a panel discussion. Here's how we made the game, and here's how we did this, and here's a crappy PowerPoint presentation that we put together in the hotel room an hour ago. And here's Jack Guarnari congratulating Steve Ritchie, and yet we don't even see the game. And here's the art team that did this, and here's the software team that's going to do this. And here's Chicago Gaming Company who can't even find where their screwdrivers are at and make the damn Pulp Fictions. Can we talk about what's going to happen at Expo? Yeah, we're going to see a remake from the Pinball Brothers in old game. Is it going to sell more than Stranger Things? No. We're going to see this mystery pinball machine, which I'm excited about. But man, you know, they're just waiting and waiting and waiting. I know they want to march into Expo. A new company's at the gates of the pinball industry. And they want to drop a mic because they've put games in boxes. And I think it's going to be Labyrinth. And I don't know now. I really don't know. And the two companies that are going to be the biggest losers if they show up with nothing new to talk about in the month of like October is going to be American Pinball and Jersey Jack pinball. Like what are they waiting for? Every single day that we get closer to Jaws is another opportunity missed by all these other pinball companies. And you see how this works. These consumers in the pinball hobby, we swarm to the newest and the most exciting thing. A lot of people are going to go get Stranger Things. A lot of people are passing on Venom. A lot of people, the most people out there are just waiting for Jaws. And now I told you that back to the futures coming. I'm just going to drop it what I heard. I know. And please forgive me if I'm wrong. And this company, I'm friends with them and they can come out and say I'm incorrect. But here's the rumor I'm hearing. And I'm just going to drop it because I'm not going to get scooped again like I did on Godfather. I am hearing that the company that is making Back to the Future and maybe and I hope this is right and I hope and I pray and I dream to the pinball gods that this company is making Back to the Future. The company that I'm hearing that is making Back to the Future is Dutch Pinball. Yes, yes, Barry, please, please say this is true. And look, I'm not 100% sure, but I have from a good source that it is Back to the Future from Dutch Pinball. And look, Roger Sharp is the guy inking deals with Dutch Pinball. And if anyone can make this deal happen, it's Mr. Roger Sharp. I mean, the man got Pulp Fiction. The man knows what he's doing. He's able to ink some amazing deals. I know everyone's like, oh, nobody can scoop Joe Camnicow. Well, we saw Joe Kamnikow get scooped on Harry Potter. So who's to say Joe Kamnikow, even with all of his millions of dollars in cars, and he's got a Back to the Future car, I think. He's got everything. He's got the James Bond car. Who's to say that Roger Sharp hasn't been working this deal for a very long time? And I know that everybody out there, the moment you hear Dutch pinball, Back to the Future, you want to turn off Canada's pinball podcast. You want to propose to your wife again. You want to call up your college buddies and you want to just enjoy our one go on this rock. And I really hope it happens, but you just heard it here first. I'm hearing that Back to the Future might be the next game from Dutch Pinball. Oh man, oh man. Okay, where do we go from here? I don't know if Barry's going to still talk to me. I know they're doing a pizza party over there. Remember when I said I was going to give a pizza party to anybody that did a Facebook Live walk around? Well, that's happening this Thursday over at Dutch Pinball and I'm paying for that pizza party. Brendan's looking at me. We got to save money for a house, but I'm buying pizza parties for pinball companies. What is wrong with this universe? Okay, so that might be coming. And that's where we are in pinball right now. You're either going to hit or you're going to miss. And there's a lot coming to be excited about. The prices are bonkers. Stern's going to rerun everything people want. Now, what that's going to do to the secondhand market is obvious. It's going to kill it. It's absolutely going to kill it. And they don care Why would they care about your secondhand value Now I think they should care for the LE owners and SLE owners All right so what else is going on in pinball We just three weeks away from Expo. I think a lot is going to happen between now and those three weeks. I think we're going to see who's got it and who doesn't. I think American pinball is in big trouble. I think Haggis pinball, they're not even on the radar really anymore. I don't think the Centaur is sold out. I think Jersey Jack pinball, this is it. And the other thing I heard is that Jersey Jack is having real serious conversations about lowering the price of the next game. They have to. They've tried something. It's failed. It's failed twice. And they had two themes that are still more popular probably than Elton John. Toy Story 4 and The Godfather. I don't know. I think they're all bad themes for pinball. I don't think they're what people want right now. When you look at what's happening in the world of pinball right now, Elton John is not where you place your bet. I think at some point, everyone's going to wake up and understand that Jack Guarnieri, I like Jack personally, but he professionally selected these themes. And Jack Guarnieri set up the company for two failures in a row, possibly three failures in a row. Steve Ritchie has not shown he has a hit game in a long time. And as much as Jack says, well, Steve's going to be back when people see these games. Well, show it. Show it. it's time to put up or shut up for Jersey Jack pinball. They've lost their mojo. They've lost their way. And I mean this, every day we get closer to Jaws is another closed opportunity on Jersey Jack finding some room to sell this new game. And they better lower the price. If I was to give them a suggestion on where to price Elton John, because they're reading the room. People are not excited about Elton John. They're gonna have to price a CE at $13,000 or 13.5. I say like charge 1,000 more for your latest version of a CE. Charge 13,500. Here's the other thing I think they're going to do. I think they're going to charge 13,500 for a CE and remove the topper. Make the topper a separate item. I mean, that is what Stern is doing. You see how smart Stern is? If you want to buy a Stern LE, accessorize it, and get a topper, you are spending $15,000 on a machine that is far cheaper when it comes to bill of materials than a Jersey Jack machine. See, Jersey Jack's putting everything in it, but then they give you a theme you don't want. Or the games are more problematic for operators. They don't have a pro edition. They have nothing enticing for an operator. And so Jersey Jack's strategy, and this is why I'm so frustrated with Jersey Jack. I've been friends with Jack all these years. He's never called me up. He's never asked me for advice. It is all marketing decisions they have made. And it sends a signal to me that they don't really understand the market. They don't understand the themes people want. They don't understand where to price it. They don't understand how to do their accessories. Why are they still winging it? 10 years in, 10 years in, Jersey Jack Pinball hasn't progressed. Have they? I mean, look at their last two games. They are some of the two most uninspired games they've ever made. And we're 10 years into this company's history. It's absolutely embarrassing. Everybody look, there is a reckoning coming in pinball. And it's going to be a fun ride to be on. And I'm happier on this ride with Canada. because you know that nobody is going to call this reckoning like me. Nobody's going to look at what's happening in this industry with no agenda. I'm not sponsored by a distributor so I can give you free t-shirts. I don't hand out free anything. You don't get anything for free from me, really. You've got to pay for this greatness. And I'm just telling you right now, it's going to be a fun ride. I'm happy you're here. I'm happy Naps Arcade is giving credit to Kaneda. All the haters and all the babies, they took their ball and they went home. They lost. Every month, the Canadian Spinball Podcast loses a few subscribers. This was the fastest month ever. We rebounded. And it shows me everybody's enjoying this. This is not negative. We are simply excited about what's going on in pinball. And we are calling it like we see it. And we have no agenda. We're not taking any sponsorship dollars. I'm not going to hold back. And I love reporting on this hobby. And the next three weeks are going to be bonkers. So strap in, ladies and gentlemen. Canadian Spinball Podcast is about to put it into overdrive. And trust me, every morning I'm waking up, I'm going to the gym. And when I do this show afterwards, it's going to be fire. Everybody have a great day. And thank you so much for the support. Later.