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Episode 1218: "Stern Already Onto The Next"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·22m 25s·analyzed·May 11, 2026
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.032

TL;DR

Stern's rapid release cycle threatens Pokemon's moment while Kaneda questions industry priorities and defends his critical voice.

Summary

Kaneda discusses Stern's aggressive release schedule, expressing concern that Pokemon is incomplete and already being overshadowed by Transformers, arriving just 90 days later. He critiques modern consumer culture's constant shift to the next product, argues that FOMO around limited editions is overblown for most upcoming releases, and predicts Back to the Future will command $15,000+ pricing. Kaneda also addresses community criticism of his content, asserting his right to express opinions while reflecting on the broader context of his life priorities.

Key Claims

  • The next Stern machine (Transformers) is being shown to dealers on May 19th with a media day around May 20th

    high confidence · Kaneda states dealer and media day dates directly; aligns with Stern's typical reveal schedule

  • Pokemon was released approximately 90 days before Transformers

    high confidence · Kaneda references 'only like 90 days ago' when discussing the gap between releases

  • Pokemon came out incomplete and lacks code depth compared to Transformers

    medium confidence · Kaneda states 'I just bought Pokemon. It's incomplete' and 'Transformers is going to be more code complete than Pokemon'

  • Sonic the Hedgehog will be revealed on or around June 20-21

    medium confidence · Kaneda speculates 'June 20th or June 21st, whatever his birthday is' for Sonic reveal

  • Back to the Future will be announced in July by Barry at Jersey Jack Pinball

    medium confidence · Kaneda predicts 'Barry's going to just rip the Band-Aid off' in July with game reveal possibly at Back to the Future Day in October

  • Back to the Future pricing will start at $15,000 or higher

    medium confidence · Kaneda estimates 'It's got to be at least $15,000 to get through the door' based on comparison to Lebowski pricing and larger screen/assets

  • Jaws LE has depreciated despite being a Keith Elwin-designed top-tier game

    high confidence · Kaneda states 'Jaws LE has still lost if you waited' and is in Pinside top 3 monthly

  • Betson leaked Pokemon LE details and lost all their Pokemon LE allocations as consequence

    medium confidence · Kaneda states 'Betson lost all of their Pokemon LE allocations over that' leak

Notable Quotes

  • “I just bought Pokemon. It's incomplete. It's got barely anything in it. I wrote a check to Automated Amusements for $14,000. And as I'm looking at this unfinished game in just like 10 days, the next Stern Pinball machine is going to be out.”

    Kaneda @ ~0:30-1:00 — Core complaint establishing Pokemon's incompleteness and the aggressive release schedule driving the episode's thesis

  • “When you buy something new, like a new car, do you go and buy another new car in three to four months? You're supposed to be making money with these things, not buying them for your home every four months and losing thousands of dollars.”

    Kaneda @ ~2:15 — Direct critique of home buyer mentality vs. operator necessity; frames unsustainable purchasing behavior

  • “Pokemon didn't even have a moment to shine and it's going to be old news immediately. The same thing will happen with Transformers. It'll come out, two months go by and then we're all on to Keith Elwin's fallout.”

    Kaneda @ ~6:30 — Captures the broader cultural critique about product saturation and attention fragmentation

  • “I think Pokemon is a game where they really, really, really needed the word of mouth on it to be better than it currently is. And I know Transformers is going to be loaded, but unfortunately they just took a lot of people's money.”

    Kaneda @ ~11:45 — Direct assessment of Pokemon's reception quality and implicit criticism of Stern's business decisions

  • “If the code is not there and the experience is not there and then like four months go by and the same game is selling for three to four thousand less than you paid, you're not going to let yourself be burned by that time and time again.”

    Kaneda @ ~14:00 — Predicts buyer behavior shift when experiencing launch-day premium depreciation; signals market psychology change

  • “Jaws was designed by Keith Elwin, arguably the best designer in Pinball. And the art package is actually nice. So they've got all of that going for it. And Jaws LE has still lost if you waited.”

    Kaneda @ ~8:30 — Demonstrates that even premium Keith Elwin designs depreciate, undermining FOMO arguments

Entities

KanedapersonStern PinballcompanyKeith ElwinpersonBarry PricepersonPokemon (Stern)gameTransformers (Stern)gameSonic the Hedgehog (Stern)gameBack to the Future (Jersey Jack)gameFallout (Stern)game

Signals

  • ?

    product_launch: Transformers Stern pinball scheduled for dealer showing May 19th and media day approximately May 20th; indicates imminent official reveal

    high · Kaneda states 'I think they're showing it to the dealers on the 19th. I think the media day is like the 20th or something like that'

  • $

    market_signal: Stern accelerating cornerstone game releases (Pokemon ~90 days ago, Transformers ~10 days away, Sonic ~30 days after Transformers, Back to the Future mid-summer/July); shortest intervals between major releases in Kaneda's analysis

    high · Kaneda: 'When you buy something new, like a new car, do you go and buy another new car in three to four months?' and 'doesn't it feel like this is one of the shortest periods of time ever between cornerstone releases?'

  • ?

    product_concern: Pokemon Stern arriving incomplete with insufficient code depth; Transformers expected to have more developed code, creating perception of buyer dissatisfaction

    high · Kaneda: 'I just bought Pokemon. It's incomplete. It's got barely anything in it' and 'I think Transformers is going to be more code complete than Pokemon'

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Growing concern that rapid releases will cause buyer regret for Pokemon early adopters; FOMO fatigue setting in as multiple high-profile titles announced in compressed timeframe

    high · Kaneda: 'all those thousands of people that bought a Pokemon. You're now going to watch a new game come out that's going to be further along... your game being in the spotlight' and prediction of secondary market depreciation

  • $

    market_signal: Even top-tier Keith Elwin designs (Jaws) are depreciating despite critical acclaim; buyers experiencing $3,000-4,000 price drops within months of release; shifts buyer behavior away from day-one purchases

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.067

0:00
I don't care what they're going to say. Let the story rage on. The cold never bothered me anyway. Oh, welcome everybody. Happy Monday. Happy Mother's Day. Belated Mother's Day to all the mamas out there. If it wasn't for our mamas, we wouldn't be where we are today. We wouldn't even be alive. It's shocking how many young women do not want children. Imagine if their mothers felt that way. Shame on all these Gen Z kids. Family is everything. And here we are. The Pinball family is about to absorb another Stern machine. I feel like I just bought Pokemon. It's incomplete. It's got barely anything in it. I wrote a check to automate it for $14,000. And as I'm looking at this unfinished game in just like 10 days, the next Stern Pinball machine is going to be out. I think they're showing it to the dealers on the 19th. I think the media day is like the 20th or something like that, the Wednesday, whatever day that is. But I'm just here to say it feels really, really soon. And I think we're about to experience what is going to be an interesting period in pinball where we're going to get saturated with a lot of product. Will it be great? Will it be worth it? I don't know yet. I know it will be expensive and I know a lot of us need a little bit more of a pause to appreciate what we just bought. I want to talk about that for a minute. When you buy something new, like a new car, do you go and buy another new car in three to four months? I understand why operators would like all of these games to come out because it's more reason for clientele to walk through the door and play the latest machine. New machines equals more money for operators. That's why these are coin operated devices. It's why they've got coin slots on the front. You're supposed to be making money with these things, not buying them for your home every four months and losing thousands of dollars. But when it comes to this period now where so many people out there just bought a Pokemon, a lot of you are waiting on your Beetlejuices. You might be waiting for Winchester. You might be waiting for Yukon Yeti. You might be waiting for Sonic the Hedgehog. You might have just bought a Harry Potter. Let's just talk about that. Are you telling me that someone who loves pinball and buys Harry Potter won't get at least one year of insane pinball excitement, insane pinball experiences just from that one machine alone? And I've never quite understood this need. And people might say, oh, because Canada, you don't have the room, you don't have the money. And maybe that's true. But I don't understand the carnal desire to need so much of something you've already got so much of. At some point, you're not really intimately experiencing any of those games. They're just another piece of artwork on the wall that you can play. It's like people that have 30 watches. I don't understand, man. Every watch just tells exactly the same thing. Time. But boy, oh boy, oh boy, when we think about the Stern games and the release schedule, doesn't it feel like this is one of the shortest periods of time ever between cornerstone releases? And it does beg the question, what is the rush? As Pokemon sits here very incomplete, what is the rush to get Transformers out? They clearly sold a lot of Pokemon, but man, it was only like 90 days ago and now we're on to the next game. And I think Transformers is going to be more code complete than Pokemon. Think about what that's going to do to all those thousands of people that bought a Pokemon. You're now going to watch a new game come out that's going to be further along. Hard to understand that since your game came out first. And then what? All of the excitement, all of the hype within the pinball community is going to move on to the next game. And you have a very very small window of your game being in the spotlight See this is what wrong with all of pop culture these days Nothing has any window in which it can actually catch on and become a cultural thing We always hardwired now to move on to the next thing immediately Absolutely. Nobody's like paying attention to the same thing at the same time. It's happening everywhere. When a great movie used to come out, we all would go see it. This new movie came out, what, Hail Mary? Everyone says it's great. How many of you went to see it? I didn't. I heard it was great. I didn't go see it. How many of you even went into the theater to see the new Avatar movies? Came and went like it was nothing. A movie that cost 400 million dollars that all of us little man children should be into. And most of us didn't even go see it. And yet it'll still make a billion dollars like somebody saw it. But there used to be a day back in the day, right? We'd all go see Terminator 2. We'd all go see Jurassic Park. We'd all go see Back to the Future. We all would go see these movies in the theater and have a moment of intimately all connecting and discussing the same thing. The same thing would happen with television. Remember when we all watched The Sopranos every Sunday? Everybody in America was watching the final episode of The Sopranos at the same time. But in today's world, we're so hardwired, we're already on to the next thing. So Pokemon comes out and already we're going to get served up Transformers by the same company that sold us an incomplete Pokemon. I have a lot of feelings about this and I don't like it at all. Like Pokemon didn't even have a moment to shine and it's going to be old news immediately. The same thing will happen with Transformers. It'll come out, two months go by and then we're all on to Keith Elwin's fallout. Not even that, gang. After Transformers gets revealed in like three weeks, we're going to get Sonic the freaking Hedgehog. And maybe that's why they're coming out with Transformers so early. They want to lock in those sales before Sonic comes out on June 20th or June 21st, whatever his birthday is, is when we're going to see Sonic. We might even see it earlier than that. And so there is this like jockeying for our attention that never stops. Now, if these were $60 video games, I'd be all for it. These are 300 pound, seven to $15,000 pinball machines in which all of you already have a lot of them. So it's a lot harder to sort of appreciate this stuff if you want to be a buyer. But I think what's going to happen to most of us, it's definitely going to happen to me. It is just more fun to speculate and to spectate in the world of expensive pinball because most of you have a very great game in your home. Most of you have many, many, many very great games in your home. And as all these new games come out, you got to ask yourself, the only reason to go in early, the only reason to run after any of these new titles is if you're afraid you're not going to be able to get one down the road or you're not going to be able to get one for anywhere near the current price of the machine. And the good news is this, absolutely nothing coming out over the next few months will be that. You're not going to have a hard time getting a Sonic CE. They're going to make an unlimited amount of that game. I don't think Transformers LE is going to be like instant sellout selling for $18,000 like Pokemon was initially. I don't think we're going to see that on Transformers. I then, you know, maybe Fallout might be hard to get the LE if it's the Fallout boy, but even that, man, think about it. Just think about this for a minute. Which theme in pinball is more popular to the pinball buying demographic, Jaws or Fallout? Absolutely Jaws. Stern has one of the greatest pinball machines ever. Pinside 100 has Jaws in the top three like every single month. And they've got all the assets from the Jaws movie. And Jaws was designed by Keith Elwin, arguably the best designer in Pinball. And the art package is actually nice. So they've got all of that going for it. And Jaws LE has still lost if you waited So my opinion is that Fallout will nowhere near hold as well as Jaws And it just an interesting time in Pinball If you let the FOMO go you will be liberated And I think if I were to look at the games coming out it going to be really hard to get a back to the future in the first few years because of the amount of demand So yeah, I think there's going to be a lot of people paying over sticker to get a back to the future for somewhere near MSRP. That's going to happen. It doesn't matter what I say. The demand is going to be there, especially with that 27 inch screen and Franchi on artwork and they have all of the assets. It is really a dream theme for a lot of people. So getting your hands on one. Good luck. Now, what will Barry Price back to the future at? It's got to be at least $15,000 to get through the door. I think he's charging like $13,500 for Lebowski and this is a bigger theme. It's got a bigger screen. It's got maybe more tech. I don't think it has more mecca toys in it, but it's still a lot more demand for back to the future than the big Lebowski. So yeah, I think $15,000 is the starting point by which you can get your hands on one. And again, it's bonkers, baby. The world is so expensive. I saw $6 at the gas station this weekend. You go out to eat and it's like 200 bucks and you don't even have any food in you and you get any drinks and it's another $18 a cocktail. The world has gone upside down. And so I'm starting to feel more and more as I get older. I'm just like none of this stuff feels worth it. It just doesn't. Now, pinball is a little different. Pinball is much more different. I do think a lot goes into these games and I just want to see that. I'm not opposed to spending a lot of money on a pinball machine. I just want to see the creativity there. I want to see the value there. And I want to make sure these companies put everything they can into making these games amazing before they bring out the next game. I know Stern's got big teams, but this is really going to hurt them. I really mean this. A lot of people still feel like they got a ticket to the Pokemon party and then they hear that the party down the street is better. You know what I'm saying? Like if the Transformers party is better and you just bought your Pokemon party ticket, You're going to feel like upset and you're going to feel like this isn't how it should be. They should have made sure that this party was popping before that party down the street is making more noise than my party. My party was first and they're not feeling like they're getting the Pokemon party and the experience they deserve. But Stern doesn't care. We all know this, right? We know they don't care. Their objective is to make sure there's a game on the line. Like Gary always would say, my favorite game is the game that is on the line and they want to get the next game on the line. I think they need to be more careful though. I think Pokemon is a game where they really, really, really needed the word of mouth on it to be better than it currently is. And I know Transformers is going to be loaded, but unfortunately they just took a lot of people's money. And I don't think a lot of people out there want to buy two pinball machines so close to each other because it's also getting a lot harder to move your older machines nowadays. Like it's getting to the point where no one's going to want the old Sterns for some of you guys out there that have got like a huge lineup of spike one Stern machines. I mean, it is what it is. I mean, even the Sam machines, like people just don't want these games anymore with so much new stuff. So we're about to get Transformers. Elliot Eisman is on it. It's coming out in just like 10 days. Then we're going to get Sonic the Hedgehog. I think we're going to get Back to the Future announced in July. Barry's going to just rip the Band-Aid off. He knows that certain people have images of the game and we will slowly talk about what is in that machine. And here's the thing too. I don't know if there's been more changes to the game, if he's added stuff. So whatever I'm talking about, take it with a little bit of a grain of salt that there might have been additional stuff added to the game. I don't think too much has been added to the game. But that being said, I'm not looking at the final production game because it doesn't even exist. He's not done designing the game. Now, he's got to be done soon. And if the game reveal is supposed to happen on Back to the Future Day in October, then they've got to get their ducks in a row. Because there no other game on the line I don even know if they doing this Jesus edition of games where you unbox it and you waiting a long time There's only so many times people will buy these new games and feel unsatisfied on the unboxing day moment. If the code is not there and the experience is not there and then like four months go by and the same game is selling for three to four thousand less than you paid, you're not going to let yourself be burned by that time and time again. All right. So we are embarking on a crazy month in pinball. And I have to say this personally, I feel like a little overwhelmed by it all. There's just so much happening. The other part is this. The other part I've been feeling lately, and I'm just going to be candid because that's what I do. I feel like people have been hitting me up saying I've been a little bit too harsh. Harsh on Jerry at Multimorphic. Harsh on Chris Turner. I'm revealing information not everybody out there wants you to know about. I'm not interacting with people that comment on my live shows as much as they would like. I've been getting a lot of feedback from people that have been basically saying they're disappointed in me and things I'm doing and things I'm saying. And I'm here to tell you right now, if I've offended you in any way, I am sorry. I'm not trying to hurt anybody, but I also am allowed to not like everything every company is doing. I'm allowed to even not even like everybody out there in the pinball world that is doing stuff. And I know that everyone's got their own plans and their own agendas and their own feelings. I also know this about the pinball world. It will never cease to amaze me whenever somebody has a problem with me. Nobody ever picks up the phone and just calls me. They got to write these mountainous emails and paragraphs on Facebook and text me how disappointed they are in me. Just man up, man. I'm like, seriously, like I'm tired of reading about the hurt emotional feelings of 40 to 50 year old men who had their pinball feelings hurt. OK, especially right now. I don't even I got to be honest right now is not the time to come at me with that. I visited my mother who's battling cancer on Mother's Day. And then I got to get a text message from grown men in the pinball world, how upset they are about something pinball related. And yeah, if that means you don't want to be friends with Canada, fine. That's what it means. But I'm just here to tell you this is a fun toy, but it is a toy. It's not the most meaningful thing in life. And I think a lot of people put so much emphasis on it that they just need to sort of put things in perspective. So many people in this world have so little, so many parts of this world are suffering so much. And here we are in this like fun space, you know, talking about these super expensive items. While most people can't even put food on the table and everybody gets offended so quickly when you talk a little smack or you share a little bit of information that they didn't want you to share or they'll blame you for stuff here and there. I feel like none of these pinball people ever played Street Fighter 2, ever got their asses kicked in a video game, right? There's so much sensitivity. They couldn't deal with it. They couldn't deal. Sometimes I wish we could just settle the score like that. If you've got an issue with Canada, let's just play some pinball. Let's just play some pinball. Let's put something at stake. I guarantee you I'll lose because I don't care. I don't care. There is nothing that is worth getting so upset about when pinball is the center of the conversation. Trust me, Jerry doesn't care what I say about him. Chris Turner's doing just fine. These companies are doing just fine. Other content creators are doing their thing. They don't care. They really don't care. These aren't people that like pick up the phone or check in on you. And I get it. I do this content every single week. And there's a bit of a distance between who I am, the content and the topic. But trust me when I say this now is not the month to share with me how hurt your pinball feelings are. OK, I'm sorry if I offended you, but there's a lot bigger fish to fry in my world. And I hope all of you I hope I mean this. I hope all of you find your happiness, find your healthiness. Find your success in pinball or outside of pinball and may each and every one of you, each and every one of you just enjoy life. Enjoy the life that's in front of you, okay? And I hope you get enjoyment out of Canada's Pinball Podcast. I do think this show says stuff nobody else will say, has an opinion that's a little bit different. And yeah, I've never been someone who just like wants to... Openly praise everything in the pinball hobby. I find that boring. There are some amazing games. There are some terrible games. There's some great marketing moves. There's some terrible marketing moves. Do I know how to run a pinball company? No. Do I care about winning trans lights and $40 on league nights? No. What I care about is creating entertaining content and talking about what these companies are doing every single week. That is the part of pinball I love because I got to be honest. In a single income household, I'm not staring down the barrel of someone who can buy $45,000 in pinball machines in like three months, which is what these companies are going to ask of the diehards out there that buy everything. And if you can do that, that's great. I have no envy. That is absolutely great. But sometimes in life, you got to ratchet it back. And I'm just at one of those places where I got to settle down a little bit because that's not sustainable at all. I'm spending money on two very, very great vacations this year, and that's where I'm allocating what they call pin money out there in the world. Okay everybody happy Monday I still can believe in 10 days we getting a new Stern machine It going to leak before then It always does And so in probably less than ten days we going to get the obligatory crappy over the shoulder Someone took a cell phone photo of a laptop of something that went to a company Now Betson leaked Pokemon Do you know that Betson lost all of their Pokemon LE allocations over that So I bet you they not going to leak the Transformers this time around Kaneda out

  • “If I've offended you in any way, I am sorry. I'm not trying to hurt anybody, but I also am allowed to not like everything every company is doing.”

    Kaneda @ ~18:00 — Direct address to community criticism; establishes editorial independence as content creator

  • “I'm tired of reading about the hurt emotional feelings of 40 to 50 year old men who had their pinball feelings hurt.”

    Kaneda @ ~19:15 — Dismissive critique of community conflict resolution style and emotional sensitivity in hobby discourse

  • “In a single income household, I'm not staring down the barrel of someone who can buy $45,000 in pinball machines in like three months, which is what these companies are going to ask of the diehards out there that buy everything.”

    Kaneda @ ~22:30 — Personal reflection on spending unsustainability; frames the affordability crisis for enthusiasts

  • “If the game reveal is supposed to happen on Back to the Future Day in October, then they've got to get their ducks in a row.”

    Kaneda @ ~15:45 — Implies specific October reveal date target for Back to the Future; suggests design timeline constraints

    • Jaws (Stern)
    game
    Big Lebowski (Jersey Jack)game
    Elliott Eisminperson
    Jerryperson
    Chris Turnerperson
    Betsoncompany
    Automated Amusementscompany
    Jersey Jack Pinballcompany
    Pinsideorganization
    Kaneda's Pinball Podcastorganization

    high · Kaneda: 'Jaws LE has still lost if you waited' and 'four months go by and the same game is selling for three to four thousand less than you paid'

  • ?

    supply_chain_signal: Betson distributor lost all Pokemon LE allocations following leak of game details; signals manufacturer response to information breaches

    medium · Kaneda: 'Betson lost all of their Pokemon LE allocations over that' leak

  • ?

    product_strategy: Back to the Future pricing projected at $15,000+ minimum; represents substantial increase over comparable Jersey Jack titles (Lebowski at $13,500); driven by IP recognition and tech features

    medium · Kaneda: 'It's got to be at least $15,000 to get through the door' based on 27-inch screen, Franchi artwork, and greater demand than Lebowski

  • ?

    rumor_hype: Back to the Future details leaked via images circulating in community; Barry Price preparing formal announcement in July; final design not yet complete

    medium · Kaneda: 'I know certain people have images of the game and we will slowly talk about what is in that machine... he's not done designing the game'

  • ?

    community_signal: Kaneda receiving substantial negative feedback from community members via email, Facebook, and text regarding his critical commentary on companies (Multimorphic/Jerry, Chris Turner) and perceived lack of engagement with live show commenters; conflict resolution happening off-air rather than direct conversation

    high · Kaneda: 'I've been getting a lot of feedback from people that have been basically saying they're disappointed in me' and 'Nobody ever picks up the phone and just calls me. They got to write these mountainous emails'

  • ?

    content_signal: Kaneda reaffirms commitment to critical, opinion-based content creation; defends right to express negative views; positions himself as one of few content creators willing to critique industry vs. universal praise approach

    high · Kaneda: 'I've never been someone who just like wants to openly praise everything in the pinball hobby. I find that boring' and 'I do think this show says stuff nobody else will say'

  • $

    market_signal: Kaneda expressing personal spending fatigue; single-income household unable to sustain $45,000 quarterly spending pace that manufacturers expect from diehard buyers; redirecting discretionary spending to vacations rather than new machines

    high · Kaneda: 'In a single income household, I'm not staring down the barrel of someone who can buy $45,000 in pinball machines in like three months' and 'I'm spending money on two very, very great vacations this year'

  • ?

    industry_signal: Kaneda articulates broader critique of modern consumer culture across all media (film, TV, pinball) where products receive minimal cultural moment before next product overshadows; no shared cultural experience window anymore; operates as meta-commentary on pinball industry mirroring entertainment fragmentation

    medium · Kaneda: 'See this is what wrong with all of pop culture these days Nothing has any window in which it can actually catch on and become a cultural thing' citing Sopranos/Terminator 2 vs. Avatar/Hail Mary

    • 21:37
    Let it go, let it go, when I rise like a ray of dawn Let it go, let it go, the perfect girl that's gone Here I stand in the light of day Let the storm rain shine Nicole never bothered me anyway.