Episode 912: "Will March Be Pinball Madness Again?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·23m 52s·analyzed·Feb 7, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.034

TL;DR

March pinball outlook: Jaws leads, but industry pricing crisis and execution failures dominate discussion.

Summary

Kaneda analyzes March pinball releases ahead of Texas Pinball Festival, predicting Jaws will dominate but criticizing Stern's topper delays and pricing strategy. He expresses skepticism about Jersey Jack's Elton John sales due to theme/price mismatch, praises Spooky Pinball business execution, and predicts Multimorphic's The Princess Bride and Pinball Brothers' Bally/Williams remakes will be the month's major announcements. He argues aggressive consumer restraint on new purchases could force industry-wide price reductions.

Key Claims

Stern Pinball takes a full year to produce toppers after game release, while Spooky Pinball can produce two toppers in that timeframe
medium confidence · Kaneda, discussing Foo Fighters topper delay and comparing manufacturer efficiency
Stern's next game after Jaws will be in April/May, likely a music pin (Metallica or Journey) designed by John Borg
medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction about Stern's Q2 pipeline
Jersey Jack Pinball's next game will arrive in August/September and will be either Matrix or Harry Potter, potentially Mark Seiden's first design
medium confidence · Kaneda's rumor about JJP's unannounced pipeline
Elton John sales are suffering due to theme unpopularity and sticker shock at $12,000-$15,000, despite the game playing well
high confidence · Kaneda's direct assessment of JJP's current situation and market reception
American Pinball's Galactic Tank Force was a sales disaster
high confidence · Kaneda's characterization of GTF's market performance
American Pinball's next game will be a Barrio (food-based/BBQ) themed machine that Kaneda predicts will be 'dead on arrival'
medium confidence · Kaneda's rumor about American Pinball's unreleased title and forecast
Multimorphic's P3 licensing revenue stream is drying up because manufacturers like Spooky, American Pinball have stopped using P3 boards
medium confidence · Kaneda's analysis of Multimorphic's business model vulnerability
Chicago Gaming Company is shipping Pulp Fiction standard editions first, delaying Elite versions, which is poor business strategy
high confidence · Kaneda's critique of CGC's fulfillment order
Haggis Pinball did not finish building all Fathom units by year-end and faces uncertain future if Centaur doesn't sell
medium confidence · Kaneda's assessment of Haggis Pinball's production and business health

Notable Quotes

“For $13,000, heck for $10,000, heck for $6,500 bucks, every single Stern machine should come with a topper included. The fact that we are paying extra and having to wait an entire year... shame on you, Stern Pinball.”
Kaneda @ early segment — Core criticism of Stern's topper strategy and pricing structure
“It's like taking lobster and stuffing it inside of eggplant. And that's the only way you'll allow people to eat lobster is they also have to have a bite of eggplant with every bite. That's what Multimorphic is to me.”
Kaneda @ Multimorphic section — Metaphorical indictment of Multimorphic's platform-first approach alienating customers
“The only boutique company that has done it right is Spooky Pinball. They've never lied. They've always delivered when they said they're going to deliver.”
Kaneda @ Spooky Pinball section — Explicit endorsement of Spooky's business integrity relative to competitors
“If these guys don't make a hit game, it's over. Pack your bags. You're gone. Bring in new leadership, Mukesh.”
Kaneda @ American Pinball section — Harsh judgment of American Pinball leadership's game choices and viability
“Everybody, if we stop running at new in-box purchases, we're going to force these companies to lower prices and we can all do it.”
Kaneda @ closing argument — Explicit consumer activism pitch to leverage market power
“You pay the most money, you get on the plane first. It's that simple in life. You pay the money at Disney World, you cut the line.”
Kaneda @ Chicago Gaming section — Articulates principle underlying complaint about CE fulfillment prioritization
“Just make a normal pinball machine. I don't understand. He's had a decade. This isn't what people want.”
Kaneda @ Multimorphic section — Distills decade-long frustration with Multimorphic's strategic direction
“It's like one is keeping a zip tie company in business and the other is not.”

Entities

KanedapersonStern PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyJersey Jack Pinballcompany American Pinballcompany Multimorphiccompany

Signals

?
business_signal: Stern Pinball's topper production delays (full year to market) indicate operational inefficiency despite company size and resources
high · Kaneda: 'How ridiculous is it that Stern Pinball cannot release a topper for a brand new game within a single year?' compared to Spooky producing two in that time
?
business_signal: Haggis Pinball facing production delays (incomplete Fathom builds) and uncertain future if Centaur fails to sell
medium · Kaneda: 'They didn't even finish building the Fathoms by the end of the year... The future is not looking good for Haggis Pinball.'
~
sentiment_shift: Strong negative sentiment toward Haggis Pinball's viability and Centaur prospects among industry observers
medium · Kaneda: 'We all know that Centaur is not going to sell... The future is not looking good for Haggis Pinball.'
?
design_philosophy: Multimorphic's platform-first design approach (screen-based playfield) fundamentally misaligned with what market wants (traditional pinball machines)
medium · Kaneda: 'The problem with Multimorphic... You don't just buy Princess Bride. You're buying the platform... he's gone all in on this platform and... nobody wants it.'
$
market_signal: Jersey Jack Elton John may follow Pirates of the Caribbean sales trajectory (low initial demand, potential future scarcity/value)
medium · Kaneda speculating: 'Maybe Elton John becomes the new Pirates of the Caribbean... Imagine if Jersey Jack Pinball did the same with Elton John... those things would rocket into being worth like 20K each'

Transcript

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If you feel like me, then I'm not gonna make you sleep But soon you'll find me You can run, you can hide, but you can't escape my love Oh, welcome everybody to the world's most awarded pinball podcast Your humble host, Canada's Pinball Podcast Here's what we're gonna talk about on this episode We're going to talk about this pinball march. Is it going to be a march pinball madness like last year? As we get closer to TPF, all these companies usually tend to release stuff in that month. So when you get to TPF, you can play all the new pinball excitement in the world that is trying to get your hard-earned money. So let's talk about it because last year we had a huge pinball march madness. Remember, we got Godfather. We got Galactic Tank Force. We had Foo Fighters that led off like the end of February. And what else did we get? I think we got a few more games. We got Final Resistance. That was a lot of titles being released once in a single month, right? It's like we had Scooby-Doo was just making its way out into the world. And so what will this March hold for the pinball-loving demographic? Well, let's think about it right now. We're not going to get a new game from Stern Pinball, but we will get, we will finally be all able to play Jaws Pinball. So I think Jaws Pinball is going to have a huge presence at Texas Pinball Festival in March. Will we finally get a topper for Foo Fighters? I put this up on Facebook yesterday. How ridiculous is it that Stern Pinball cannot release a topper for a brand new game within a single year? Like it takes them 365 days after the game is developed to get a topper out into the world. I don't understand this. Like all they did was zip tie a plastic Godzilla to another piece of plastic. Why would it take a company with like 600 employees and all the millions of dollars we spend on stern machines an entire year to figure out how to make a topper? And why is the topper division so damn slow? And I'm just going to say this for $13,000, heck for $10,000, heck for $6,500. bucks, every single Stern machine should come with a topper included. The fact that we are paying extra and having to wait an entire year, Spooky Pinball can put out two toppers in the time it takes Stern Pinball to make even one. And heck, Spooky Pinball gives you a topper for free that has movement usually and has a lot of different intricacies in it. You know, Spooky Pinball gives you for free. Jersey Jack, when you spend like $12,000, at least you get a topper and you get a much nicer topper on the collector's edition. So shame on you, Stern Pinball, and shame on you, Stern Apologist, for defending this company that takes forever to get toppers out. All right, so just Jaws Pinball. Are we going to see anything else from Stern at Texas in March? Anything new in March? I don't think so. I think Stern's next game is going to be April, May, and then I think we're going to get a music pin from Stern Pinball. Remember, they love to hit us with music pins. It's either going to be a new Metallica or it's going to be Journey. I think it's going to be John Borg up next. So that's going to be April, May. All right, Jersey Jack Pinball. Well, we all know we're not going to get anything new from Jersey Jack Pinball, but it's going to be a month in which a lot of people are going to be able to hop on Canada's new favorite game, Elton John. So they're obviously going to use March and Texas Pinball Festival as a chance to get Elton John in front of people. Will that help ignite Elton John sales? You know, even though the game is amazing, even though I love it, even though it plays so damn well, I still just think people are not going to get over the theme and they're not going to get over the sticker shock. No matter what we do, no matter how much I tell you how amazing this game is, and it is amazing, $12,000 to $15,000 you only want to spend that much money if it's a dream theme and that's the issue, right? If this was Star Trek, it would have sold out If this was Star Wars and it shot this well it would have sold out, right? If this was Matrix, if it was Top Gun go down a list If it was Game of Thrones, if it was ACDC it's just the fact that it's Elton John and it's so expensive Those two things are rubbing your little pinball ding-dong with sandpaper. You just don't feel well, right? It just doesn't feel right. It's like whatever you're doing, just stop. And if this game was 9,500 and 12,500 and there was only 500 CEs, we're having a much different conversation about Elton John. So nothing new from Jersey Jack. When do we think we're going to see their next game? I think sometime end of summer. I would say the fall. We're not going to see JJP's next game until sometime in maybe August, September. And then that's going to be a big one because I think that's going to be Mark Seiden's first game. And the rumors are either it's going to be Matrix or Harry Potter. So it is going to be a juggernaut year potentially for Jersey Jack Pinball. And maybe Elton John becomes the new Pirates of the Caribbean, right? Maybe they don't make many. Maybe they sit in box for a year. For those newbies out there, I remember all too well when you could get a Pirates of the Caribbean new in box and nobody wanted it. and everybody let it pass, and then they stopped making them. Imagine if Jersey Jack did the same with Elton John and said, hey, we only made 1,000, we're not making any more. Trust me, those things would rocket man into being worth like 20K each, just like Pirates of the Caribbean. All right, let's go on. So what, Spooky Pinball? Spooky Pinball is obviously just getting out the door Texas Chainsaw Massacre and what Looney Tunes All right so we going to be able to play both of those games and that going to be exciting You know this is potentially the best shooting spooky machine of all time That's what people are saying. The early reviews on the game are good. I think for a lot of people out there, it's not about the theme. You know, it's more about the quality with spooky. People want to make sure these games are built well. They want to make sure there's not 18,000 zip ties when they lift the hood on the game, even though there's probably going to be. You know what's funny is lift a Stern machine up and put it next to a spooky machine. Just look underneath. It's like one is keeping a zip tie company in business and the other is not. Stern is so cheap though, by the way. Look how cheap a Stern machine is, people. It's the big secret in pinball. I bet Stern has got their bomb down to around like $3,000. And I'm whispering this because they don't want us to know that. and you're spending probably $10,000 more than it costs to make that Ellie of Jaws. Oh, Kaneda said it. Yep, companies usually find efficiencies and make their manufacturing cheaper over time, not more expensive. It's just wood, people. Last time I checked. And it's not even good wood, people. Last time I checked. It's not that pricey. All right, what else is going on? So Spooky's going to have those two games. Are they going to sell out, right? Neither of these titles have sold out. And I think Spooky must be not nervous. Like they're having great sales. Like they're making money. They have no rent. They're in Benton, Wisconsin. When they go out to eat, a beer is probably $4. In New York City, it would be $12. So they're living high on the hog and they earned it. And I'm always happy to see Spooky Pinball be successful. And they're the only boutique company that has done it right. Really, it's true. All the boutique companies out there, if you're hearing this, the only one that's done it right is Spooky Pinball. And what I mean by that is they've never lied. They've always delivered when they said they're going to deliver. And even though they've had growing pains, that's part of being a boutique company. And if you want something different, Spooky Pinball has a lot of happy customers. All right, who's next on our list? American Pinball, David Fix, and Maurice, baby. Some people call me Maurice.

8:10

What is Maurice going to bring to Texas in March? What's going to happen in March for this company? Now look, American Pinball is due a new game. Galactic Tank Force came out a year ago this March, and it didn't sell. It's been a sales disaster, and I don't care how many thermoses or lunchboxes they throw at us, people are not buying this game. So that begs the question, are we going to see a new game from American Pinball at TPF revealed in March? I think the answer is yes. I think we have to see something new from American Pinball, and they have to get a new game out in front of the audiences at TPF, and especially the audiences at Midwest Gaming Classic, because here's why. The next game they have coming out is a Berrio food-based game, which I think is a BBQ game. All right, so the only people that really care about Barry O are pinball fanatics. So you're going to have to get this game to shows because if you just put this thing up on the internet, nobody's going to buy this thing. There's no casual person that wakes up and all of a sudden is going to want a Barry O food-based pinball machine. So they're going to have to find those diehard people that actually have some endearing feelings towards Barry O. And let me tell you this. The game's going to be a sales disaster. I don't even have to see it. I don't have to play it. I can just tell you right now, if David Fix and Maurice and Steve Bowden, who knows what he's doing over there every day, Steve Bowden, my gosh. So if they walked into my office and said, hey, we're going to make a Berrio tribute game, I would fire all of them on the spot. You guys are done. Get out of here. If I'm Mukesh, you're gone. Out of here. No more of this. You've had this company now for four years and you keep bringing me terrible ideas. You know what we do to people in my industry that keep bringing bad ideas to the table, you lose your job. And the fact that they're still gainfully employed, not even gainfully employed, they're all smiling and jumping around like fraggles. It's ridiculous. If these guys don't make a hit game, it's over. Pack your bags. You're gone. Bring in new leadership, Mukesh. What are you doing? All right. So American Pinball, new game. I think it's going to be a flop. I think it's already dead on arrival. Barrels of fun. It's so much fun saying that name now. We made fun of it for years and now I can't get out of my damn head. Barrels of Fun. Our friends over there at Barrels of Fun, you know, look, they're not going to release a new game. They're going to get Labyrinth over to the show. And I think we're going to get more and more people on the game. They still haven't sold all 1100. You know, I've heard a mixed bag on Labyrinth. Most people I hear like it, right? Most people are having a good time. They're going to it. I'm hearing from operators that it's like really earning well on location. I'm not hearing about a lot of issues. They've got some stuff to put into the code. There's some ball hangups that are happening. All this is just like, you know, expected from a new pinball company with its first game. But again, new company, they're making games. Nobody's getting ripped off. They made a licensed themed game. That was smart. I think this company has a bright future. And I think this company is going to make a game that I'm going to want to buy one day. This is not it. Because as I've said, if you're a grown man and you're still into Labyrinth and you want to stare at David Bowie's bulge, I don't know if you're really getting much action in your personal life. If you know what I mean, people, if you know what I mean, Canada, you can't say this stuff. Children are listening to this show. Well, they're going to learn sooner or later. All right. It's a weird movie. I get that. Some people love it. And then they remove Jennifer Connelly from the game, which makes no sense to me. She was the main reason you probably loved the movie when you were a young boy. Let be honest people All right You can talk about this stuff Be careful Kaneda Be careful All right who next on our list Chicago Gaming Company Oh Pulp Fiction right Wow, a year later, these guys are finally shipping Pulp Fictions. Congratulations, CGC. You went from an 18-month delay to a 12-month delay. You really hit it out of the park this time. Look, it's all going to be about Pulp Fiction. More people are going to jump on it. It is a beautiful machine. It is the best theme in pinball in a long time. It's a different take on pinball, right? It's a little bit of a throwback and a modern game at the same time. And look, you know, I have one on order. It was like the easiest thing to order. I got an LE on day one. They've been sold out for a year. People are not putting up their spots for sale. I'm curious to see what the secondhand market is on Pulp Fiction. I'm also curious because they're making the standard editions first. I'm wondering if the hype is going to die down. And by the time the Ellies make it out the door, I'm wondering if it's still going to be this like frenzy for that game. So we shall see. I really wish they would have made the Ellies first. I mean, again, you pay the most money, you get on the plane first. It's that simple in life. You pay the money at Disney World, you cut the line. And I don't understand why all these companies and all the excuses of, oh, well, they're just going to iron out the kinks. They've had 12 months of this game on location, people. They know what the kinks are. There's not even much in the game to break. It's got a few drop targets and a few magnets. What kinks are you talking about? There's no ramps. There's no upper play fields. There's no lower play fields. This game has been rock solid since day one. There are no kinks. Get the LE buyers their games first. The same thing with Jersey Jack. The Elton John CEs should be the first games you sell because then people unboxing them paid the most money. They get the experience first. They don't have to watch platinum owners like spoil it with streams for four or five months before they get their game. And it's just a smarter business move because if you have CEs being unboxed on day one, guess which version people are going to order because it's available. The expensive version with the higher profit margin, you ding-dongs. It's so obvious to get the LEs and the CEs out first. Why is pinball marketing and why are pinball business people so upside down? Oh, Canada, you should start a pinball company and call it Barrels of Fun. All right, who is next on our list? Multimorphic. Now, Multimorphic might have the game that is the talk of March. I know it's crazy to say that, but they're going to come out with Princess Bride. And I think we're going to see it in March. And if I'm looking at everything else coming out in March, this seems to be the theme and the game that might be the one that steals the show, right? And so will Multimorphic finally make a game that feels like it's worth it? The problem with Multimorphic, if they just made a regular, a regular pinball machine that is the Princess Bride without a big screen as the play field, it would sell tremendously well. The problem is, is you don't just buy Princess Bride. You're buying the platform and you have to want to buy other games on the platform or it doesn't make economic sense. And I think Jerry is just never going to get over this. He's gone all in on this platform and he needs it to work. And I don't know, right? His P-Rock annuity is going to start drying up because I don't think any manufacturer anymore, maybe other than Dutch, is using P-Rock boards because it obviously is the P-Rock money that's kept Multimorphic afloat and Spooky stopped using their stuff. We now have American Pinball has stopped using their stuff. I think Chicago Gaming Company might have used their stuff. I don't know if they still do, right? A lot of the manufacturers have moved on and Jerry's like gravy train of P-Rock systems is not going to be that way in the future. And it's just really hard for me to see this company because they have great engineers. They have great ideas. They have great concepts. And then they just put it into a package nobody wants. It's like taking lobster and stuffing it inside of eggplant. And that's the only way you'll allow people to eat lobster is they also have to have a bite of eggplant with every bite. That's what multi-morphic is to me. It's lobster stuffed inside of eggplant. You just don't want it. Just serve lobster, Jerry. Everybody's telling you, just make a normal pinball machine. I don't understand. He's had a decade. This isn't what people want. All right, who else we've got here? We've got Haggis Pinball, baby. Haggis Pinball and Centaur. Are people going to buy Centaur? No, they're not. Fathoms are losing money now. if you bought one, you're now not getting any money back on that, and they're easy to get. What does that show you, right? It's like Fathom was so beautiful, right? Kim Mitchell, it's a museum piece. Kim Mitchell asking $35,000 for one. Kim Mitchell, I love you. I know you love it when I give you a shout out. Let's just say Billy Brandes and Robert Mooney and some of the people out there that I absolutely adore. You got a shout out and a moment of silence for my friend Derek who bought a Godfather LE and just lost $5,000 because he didn't listen to his friend Kaneda. Derek, you fool. I told you fool. You could have had a first class ticket to Tokyo and we could have had the time of our lives. And now you're just staring at a stupid rainbow puke version of Godfather. I told you, buddy, don't do it. And you did it. So Kim Mitchell, you know what happened? He keeps telling me I'm wrong on Haggis. I'm wrong on Haggis. I'm not wrong on Haggis We all know that Centaur is not going to sell And then what What going to happen to Haggis Pinball They didn even finish building the Fathoms by the end of the year And with all these pinball companies and all these teams you want more than Centaur The future is not looking good for Haggis Pinball. They're going to have to rush out that Marty Robbins, pinball designer, War of the Worlds game that he's been touting. Where is it, Marty? Show it. We know that's your feet. We know you're there, Marty. Step out from underneath the curtain and show us what you've been designing now for four freaking years, people. All right, so Haggis Pinball, nothing's going to happen. They're going to bring that monstrosity or oblivion edition and try to get people to spend $17,500 on a centaur. Good luck. Game over. Talking of game over, Home Pin, we're going to get Spinal Tap. I don't know. Did anyone order this? Does this game even exist? Where is this game? It's been like on location. They added a center post to stop it from draining. And I don't know. Home Pin doesn't even deserve any more airtime on this show. We're going to move right past them. All right. Turner Pinball. What's Turner Pinball going to do? Are they going to bring Ninja Eclipse? Do they have another theme? I don't understand why this guy who owns like all those Raza machines and at least Raza was fully developed. Robert spent like $2 million on animations with different studios in Utah. And like the game is done. Just release Raza if you can. Like why are you wasting your effort on this like ninja eclipse game that looks like a mobile game? What are you doing? I mean, I don't know what's going on with Chris Turner. It pains me because we share a first name. But man, this is another company where it's a slow motion train wreck if you ask me. So Turner Pinball, nothing happened in there. The Pinball Brothers. So they're going to have maybe the moment in March where they show us their Bally Williams remakes with Pedretti Gaming. So if you ask me, the two big stories are going to be Princess Bride and it's going to be the Bally Williams remakes made by Pedretti Gaming. And is it going to work? Right. I think it's going to be distributed by the Pinball Brothers. And what game is it going to be? Now, I'm hearing it's one of like the top Bally Williams games. So is it going to be Twilight Zone, which is a good guess? Is it maybe going to be Indiana Jones, which is an even better game to put out into the market? Is it going to be a J-pop game? I hope it's not a Fishtails. I hope it's not Whitewater One. I hope it's something that people really want. But here's my concern. I've been saying this. This company does not make games as good as CGC. And so if we get Bally Williams remakes and the quality is not there, you're going to have a really weird sort of thing happen. I think all the CGC remakes are going to skyrocket in value. And I think these games are going to be like undesirable. And I don't really care about remakes that much. I really want the future to be about new themes. New and boxed stuff should be new themes. I don't think we need remakes. We've got enough new stuff. Why are we looking back? So that's Pinball Brothers. Who am I missing here? We're going to skip over pinball adventures. Nothing's happening over there. We got to get Donald to toss his punny factory off the roof. He got his refund. It's time to send the game to Todd Tuckey and toss it, brother. You know you need to do it. All right, last on our list is Dutch Pinball, right? Our friends over at Dutch Pinball. Anything happening in March? Nope, you're going to get nothing from Dutch in March. They're still making big Lebowskis. Alice in Wonderland is around the corner sometime in April, May. And then the big juggernaut, Back to the Future. It's amazing. If you haven't reached out to Melissa yet and begged her to get on the Back to the Future super limited edition list, I think they might only be making 88. And I think we might be reserving some for Canada Club members. And I know that's annoying some people out there. It's not going to annoy my fan club members. And if you're listening to this right now and that annoys you, You're not paying for this show, so pony up the money. You know who I'm talking about. All right, so that's going to happen. And what else we got, right? It's going to be an interesting year. I think this year overall is going to be defined by pricing and theme. Will these companies be able to own up to how expensive pinball has become? Are people going to continue to stay on the sidelines and not run at every new in-box release? I think we're going to see more and more of that. And I think it's a good thing. And I think all of us collectively together, together, if we stop running at new in box purchases, we're going to force these companies to lower prices and we can all do it. Like, think about it. We've got 700 plus people here, 3,500 people on Facebook. If everybody just takes my advice, we will see price reductions by the middle of the year. Trust me, you're going to see more games put on sale and we're going to see Elton John for sale. We're going to see Jaws for sale. So all these games are going to be selling for much less money than MSRP. Everybody, have a great Wednesday. I'm super amped. I got to go pitch a new business client. I always love new business pitches. You don't want to pitch against Canada. The world's number one pinball podcast with six trophies and the only legitimate trophies that have ever been given out in the world of pinball. Everybody, have a great day. We'll talk to you soon.