Episode 723: "Kaneda Scoops The Industry!"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·16m 40s·analyzed·Sep 22, 2022

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.036

TL;DR

Kaneda celebrates James Bond scoop while warning pinball pricing has jumped the shark.

Summary

Kaneda claims to have leaked accurate details about a fourth James Bond pinball edition designed by Keith Elwin, limited to 500 units with dealer-set pricing expected at $20-30k. He celebrates this as a major industry scoop while heavily criticizing Stern's escalating pricing strategy—James Bond Limited Edition now $13,000 (80% increase from prior years) with 1,000 units produced—and expressing concern that the hobby is reaching an unsustainable ceiling.

Key Claims

Keith Elwin is designing a fourth James Bond pinball edition, limited to 500 units, as a single-level EM-inspired game with dealer-set pricing expected at $20-30k
high confidence · Kaneda repeatedly confirms this prediction came true; claims to have reported this a week and a half prior to official announcement
James Bond Limited Edition is priced at $13,000 base ($14,500 with shipping/tax), representing an 80% price increase from $7,500 a few years ago, with 1,000 units produced
high confidence · Kaneda provides specific pricing figures and contrasts with historical pricing; describes this as new normal for Stern LE pricing
A special James Bond 60th anniversary edition will be unveiled at the British Film Institute on September 30th
high confidence · Kaneda states 'they are going to show the games at the British Film Institute on September 30th' and predicts Keith Elwin game shown in November/December
Stern charges approximately $3,000-5,000 to manufacture a pinball machine
medium confidence · Kaneda cites prior statement by Nick Parks on his show regarding manufacturing costs
Secondary market James Bond Limited Edition models will command $16,000-18,000 resale prices due to FOMO
medium confidence · Kaneda predicts market behavior based on Godzilla LE price escalation pattern
Stern Premium Edition pricing is now $9,700 and Pro Edition is $7,000 for James Bond
high confidence · Kaneda provides specific pricing tiers: 'It's $9,700 for the Premium Edition. It's $7,000 for a Sam Stern Pro.'

Notable Quotes

“Was this not the greatest scoop in the history of pinball scoops? Nobody else was saying it. Nobody was reporting on it.”
Kaneda @ ~mid-content — Kaneda's assertion of having exclusively predicted the Keith Elwin James Bond design and 500-unit limit
“I went all in on this rumor. I went out on a limb... So I want to exonerate anyone who's saying that Keith Elwin lied.”
Kaneda @ ~early-mid content — Acknowledges risk taken and clarifies misattribution of statements to Elwin
“For the price of a car. Now you can get a single level Sam Stern machine. And I think a lot of people are just feeling like, when does it end? When does the insanity end?”
Kaneda @ ~mid-content — Core pricing concern statement; predicts dealer pricing at $25-30k for Keith Elwin edition
“The whole hobby has jumped the shark James Bond style.”
Kaneda @ ~mid-content — Thematic summary of Kaneda's primary criticism about pricing unsustainability
“Just think about that for a moment. Just a few years ago, a Sam Stern Limited Edition was $7,500. We are pinball seeing right now about an 80% increase in the price of a Sam Stern Limited Edition, and they are also making twice as many Limited Edition.”
Kaneda @ ~mid-content — Quantifies pricing escalation and production volume paradox
“Loose lips, man. I didn't make this up. They told people this and those people told me.”
Kaneda @ ~mid-content — Defends source reliability for the leak; indicates information came from within industry
“I really need to see this game being played by like Jack Danger... I will say when I saw that happen in the gameplay video, it was so underwhelming.”
Kaneda @ ~late-mid content — Critiques James Bond gameplay mechanics (jetpack feature) as lackluster in promotional video
“The whole market has changed. And if we go into a recession, this pinball hobby is going to get hit hard.”

Entities

Kanedaperson Keith ElwinpersonStern PinballcompanyJack Dangerperson James Bondgame Jersey Jack Pinballcompany

Signals

?
business_signal: Stern manufacturing cost structure ($3-5k per unit) contrasts sharply with $13k LE pricing ($8-10k gross margin per unit), suggesting aggressive margin expansion strategy that Kaneda criticizes as exploitative
medium · Kaneda cites Nick Parks statement about $3-5k manufacturing costs, then contrasts with $13k pricing: 'I mean, we've all forgotten this. We've all forgotten. We've all been delusional about what we're doing with our money.'
~
sentiment_shift: Pricing escalation creating enthusiasm erosion and hobby accessibility concerns; Kaneda notes sentiment shift from enthusiasm to worry about market viability and recession vulnerability
medium · Kaneda: 'I do think these high prices are starting to sort of eat away at the enthusiasm for a lot of people' and 'if we go into a recession, this pinball hobby is going to get hit hard'
?
design_philosophy: James Bond LE artwork and mechanical design criticized: inner art blades by James Bond illustrator appear incomplete ('coloring book'), apron design 'lazy' for $13k price point, jetpack/underwater features underwhelming in demo video
medium · Kaneda: inner blades 'look a little strange' and 'distracting', apron 'looks really, really bad and lazy', jetpack feature 'was so underwhelming' with 'slow' ball delivery to tank
?
event_signal: James Bond 60th anniversary pinball to be showcased at British Film Institute tribute on September 30th; Keith Elwin version likely delayed to November/December after LE production completion
high · Kaneda: 'they are going to show the games at the British Film Institute on September 30th' and predicts 'we're going to see the Keith Elwin game in November, December'
?

Topics

Pricing escalation and market sustainability in pinballprimaryJames Bond Limited Edition and Keith Elwin fourth edition announcementprimaryKaneda's industry leak credibility and content creator competitionprimaryJames Bond game mechanical design and gameplay quality concernssecondaryStern Pinball production strategy and feature distribution across Pro/Premium/LE tierssecondarySecondary market FOMO and resale price predictionssecondaryHobby accessibility and recession vulnerabilitymentioned

Sentiment

mixed(0.35)— Kaneda celebrates accurate scoop prediction and validates his content creation approach (positive), but expresses deep concern about pricing unsustainability, perceived greed by manufacturers, hobby accessibility collapse, and specific mechanical/aesthetic design shortcomings on James Bond LE (negative). Victory lap tone clashes with structural industry criticism.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.050

Well, but Kaneda then released a post on his Facebook page stating that L1's actually making the fourth game. That seems super unlikely to me. That seems super unlikely to me. We had Kaneda's Pinball Podcast literally holding court for the last week in live Facebook forum, virtually taking over the release from Stern as he revealed and leaked more and more information daily about art packages, pricing, features, gameplay, sometimes multiple times a day, while Stern, forced into their lane by their delayed release decision, rightly or wrongly, sat back and did nothing as just about every single piece of their Bond pinball puzzle was unfurled as leak after leak became public, culminating in the final Kaneda bombshell. That, in fact, there would be another 60th anniversary edition of the game which would be unveiled at the British Film Institute tribute to James Bond. Say what? But wait, it gets better. Rumor has it that this 60th anniversary machine would be different from the other pro-premium and LE models in every way, showcasing all of the James Bond actors with possibly even the inclusion of Daniel Craig and sold through dealers with no ceiling on the price, much like what they did with the 40th anniversary edition of Elvira. Say what? The game would be a single-level, only EM-inspired game, much like what Stern did with the Beatles. But the most interesting part of this rumor is that this new 60th edition version would be completely redesigned by none other than the top pinball designer in the world, wait for it, Keith Ewing. Say what? Next thing you know, shorty got low, low, low, low, low, low, low, low, low. Come on in, come on in, come on in, come on in, come on in, come on in. Oh, welcome everybody to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. What did I tell you? What did I tell you? Was this not the greatest scoop in the history of pinball scoops? Nobody else was saying it. Nobody was reporting on it. A week and a half ago, what did I tell you? There was going to be a fourth edition of James Bond. Check. It was going to be designed by Keith Elwin. Check. It was going to be a single level game. Check. The dealers are going to set the price. Check. I was just off on one, one thing. I was off on that. It wouldn't be limited. It is limited to 500 games, everybody. But you heard it here first on Canada's Pinball Podcast. And everybody on Pinside said I was crazy. Everyone on Pinside said I was nuts. John Elric has joined the Canada Club. John over at Jack Bar. He said if he lost this bet, he would join, and he joined today. Everybody, look, this is a victory lap for all Canada fans, and that's why everyone's going to get to hear this show today, because I know that my fans want to hear everyone else out there in the pinball community that listens to Pinball Podcast. I know they want each and every one of you to hear why this show is so entertaining, why it is so much fun to speculate, and why it is so much fun to try to scoop these companies on their big plans. right nobody else was saying this this didn't appear on naps arcade it didn't appear on this week in pinball well actually it did jeff did put up on this week in pinball that i was speculating this the loser kid pinball podcast covered it craig bobby covered it and carrie hardy covered it but everybody else missing in action but i just want to say to all my haters on pin side how do you like me now how do you like the six twippy just put the six twippy right now in the book bag because the world's most humble and the world's worst haircut pinball podcaster is just here to say, damn, I feel relieved. I mean it. I feel such relief. Like I was telling Brenda last night, I really can't sleep because I went all in on this rumor. I went out on a line and then I thought like Keith Elwin said on a Jack Danger stream that he wasn doing a James Bond pin Keith Elwin himself chimed in and said show me where I said that So he didn even say that And someone on Pinside basically made that up. So I want to exonerate anyone who's saying that Keith Elwin lied. Look, it was hard to like go watch three hours of Jack Danger streaming the game. So that's why I think there was some confusion. But let's just say, for the record, I think Kaneda hit it out of the park with one of the craziest and strangest rumors of all time. And I'm just happy that we finally got the reveal today. I'm happy we finally got to see James Bond in LE format. And I'm just happy like the game is now all available. Like all the information is available to us on what James Bond pinball is going to be. I'm also happy for all of my other pinball content creators out there and I'm just pulling their legs. I'm just happy that we all have content to talk about. That's it. But I also do feel somewhat vindicated because I take a lot of arrows in the back and people make fun of me all the time. And I'm going to say this right now. The reason why my show is entertaining, the reason why it's enjoyable is because we actually want to talk about these rumors. So many people out there will not talk about stuff. Even if they caught wind of this, they would have buried it because they don't want to burn their relationships with Stern. And how do you think Stern felt looking at Kaneda's Facebook page, right? all throughout the week and they got to see me put up there what was going to happen. Their big mystery, their big surprise was absolutely spoiled by Kaneda. Do I feel bad? No. The reason I don't feel bad is that loose lips, man. I didn't make this up. They told people this and those people told me. The other reason I do not feel bad at all is Stern Pinball is now charging $13,000 for NLE. This launch has been such a weird week and a half. And I want to say this. I do think the LE looks really good. I'm going to talk about that a little bit. But man, I want to start with the sticker shock. If you ordered this game through Stern Pinball with shipping and with tax, it is like $14,500 now for a Stern LE in which they are making 1,000 games. Just think about that for a moment. Just a few years ago, a Stern LE was $7,500. We are seeing right now about an 80% increase in the price of a Stern LE, and they are also making twice as many LEs. At some point, and I mean it when I say this, I think we're reaching a ceiling, and I think it's just somewhat deflating a little bit that now this is the new par for the course. Jersey Jack wants 12 to 15. Stern's going to now want 13,000 people for every single LE moving forward. And we know the number is going to keep going up. It's not going to go down. And then it begs the question, how much is this Keith Elwin machine going to be? Right? This single level game that has all the James Bonds in it and has an LCD screen in the game. It has 10 drop targets. There's a lot going on in the game. And this is going to be a game that James Bond fanatics are going to want. And there's only 500. So what's the price going to be there? Right? I think they're going to give them to the dealers for 15 and then they're going to set the price. And guess what the dealers are going to do? Are they going to set it at 20? No, they're going to set it at like 25 to $30,000. It's absolutely bonkers for the price of a car. Now you can get a single level stern machine. And I think a lot of people are just feeling like, when does it end? When does the insanity end? And I think some people actually blame me. They're like Canada. You've been telling them all these years that they have multimillionaires who buy these games. For these gentlemen, it means nothing to spend $5,000 more, $8,000 more. And I think we're seeing it because here's what's going to happen. Even though I think this price is crazy, I still think we're going to see people flipping these James Bond LEs for more than $13,000. And you have to look no further than Godzilla now all of them If you want a Godzilla LE opened up you now spending So this is it This is the new normal right This is absolutely the new normal And I think for a lot of people, it's not just the LE. Now it's $9,700 for the premium. It's $7,000 for a Stern Pro. And look, I don't think people feel good about this. And the market's going to decide whether or not I moan about this or praise this move because now Stern's just going to get richer. It doesn't matter. Ultimately, the market will decide. And we're going to know real soon. We're going to see the first for sale of a James Bond LE. How much is someone going to ask for it? I think you're going to see people asking $16,000 to $18,000 for it. And I think some people will fall victim to the FOMO and jump right in. I would just caution each and every one of you. Just wait a little bit. The worst day to buy an LE is going to be this weekend. Just wait. See where the market settles. What do I think about the LE? It looks beautiful. I really do love the Thunderball art package. I've always loved the Thunderball art package. I like the armor on the machine. I just think the game looks really good. And then I watched the gameplay video and I'm not so sure. I really need to see this game being played by like Jack Danger. I want to see how it all comes together. And I think that's going to be a really important part of this game. Like does that rocket? Is it going to get annoying? I know people are saying it looks like a sex toy vibrating. I want to see this stuff. What does the underwater battle look like? Is it cool or is it a cheap gimmick? What does it feel like when you get on the jetpack and it's just James Bond on a wand moving over to the tank? I will say when I saw that happen in the gameplay video, it was so underwhelming. For some reason, I just thought it would be such a cool thing for that to happen. But then the way he just kind of like poops out the ball and it slowly just hits the tank, it just didn't feel like dramatic. But again, we're watching this happen without music, without call outs, without stuff on the LCD screen. So I really need to see how this whole game ties together. But man, that sticker shock. It still hurts. Like every five minutes, I forget that Stern LEs are now 13,000. The other thing about the LE that everybody saw today were the inner art blades. And I know these inner art blades were done by a James Bond illustrator. They look a little strange. I'm not going to lie. The whole black and white like illustration sketches of James Bond in the game like that. It's just a little jarring. It almost looks like a coloring book that just needs to be colored in. And I'm not sure I like them. I need to see it in person. But I just don't like them because now it's not cohesive. Like it's distracting. And I just don't think they look good. I think what would look much better as inner art blades are either decals based on Thunderbird. Or you have all the movie posters on the inner art decals. I think the secondhand market with inner art decals is going to fix the problem. The other thing I don't like, and I'm nitpicking here. The other thing I don't like about this game is the apron. For $13,000, Stern, come on, work on the apron a little bit. You've got all of this source material. You've got all of this James Bond artwork to play with. And you can't make the apron look better than that. I just think it looks really, really bad and lazy. And that's just the only other thing I'm going to gripe on. I love the left side of the cabinet. I love the Translight on the Thunderball Edition. I'm not crazy about the right side with the movie posters, but it is what it is. But overall, I'm just going to say this. Overall, this is a very, very, very nice game from Stern. It is one of their nicest LEs ever. It is also their second most expensive LE ever. And so there's a lot of these out there. Isn't it crazy? Like we moaned and groaned when Batman SLE was $15,000 and there was only 80 of them. Now we have a $13,000 game that they're making a thousand of. The whole hobby has jumped the shark James Bond style. Okay, all right, let me take a breath. The other thing I was right about is they are going to show the games at the British Film Institute on September 30th. Now, I thought they were going to wheel out the Keith Elwin game there. The thing is it might not be done yet So I think we going to see the Keith Elwin game in November December That kind of a smart move by Stern because I think Stern wants to get every Ellie sold and also get every Ellie made before they show the Keith Elwin edition. I have already spoken to James Bond fanatics who are getting both. Like it's great. They are getting both. And so let's say like the Keith Elwin game is like 20 grand, 25. And then the Ellie is 13. These are gentlemen that are just going to get two pinball machines in 2022, and they are going to drop somewhere between $33,000 and like $38,000 for two Stearns, people. Two Stearns. I feel like people forgot when Nick Parks came on this show and said it cost Stearn about $3,000 to $5,000 to make a game. I mean, we've all forgotten this. We've all forgotten. We've all been delusional about what we're doing with our money. But look, everybody, this hobby is meant to entertain. It's meant to be fun. If you love James Bond and you realize you only live once and you really want this pin, then go get it. I'm not here to tell you not to buy this game. I do think these prices are kind of crazy. I really do. But this is pinball now. The whole market has changed. And if we go into a recession, this pinball hobby is going to get hit pretty damn hard. The other problem happening in pinball now is this. It's like now that these games are coming out at such a high price, anyone who has an old Stern LE automatically now thinks their games are worth a lot more money and maybe they are what's a Ghostbusters LE worth if there's only 500 what's a Tron LE worth if there's only 400 right it's just crazy now everyone's going to want 15 to 20 thousand dollars for machines that were just a few thousand over sticker just a few years ago but I do think these high prices are starting to sort of eat away at the enthusiasm for a lot of people in this hobby It just is. There's no way around it. But I also do want to applaud Stern for putting more into these games. At these price points, you're going to need to load up games like this. You're not going to be able to sell games like Toy Story. Our expectations are going to be through the roof, and they should be because the prices have gone through the roof. But overall, probably one of the most satisfying days of my pinball podcasting career. I am so happy that the rumor that I put out there hit the nail on the head, hit the ball out of the park. And I just have a favor for all my pinball podcasting friends out there. When you talk about this, just remember how to say my name. It's Kaneda. All right. Kaneda said it. It came true. I love all you guys. I love all my club members. I love all the other pinball content creators. And I'm just feeling great. It's my birthday this weekend. This was the greatest early birthday gift I ever could have got. To have my biggest scoop become true. And now hopefully, I'm just going to say this. Jason Knapp, I love your site. Jason Knapp, you have given every other single pinball content creator credit for when they've called something before it happened. Jason, I'm just asking you politely, please credit Canadas Pinball Podcast for saying this is where it originated. And then say everything there is about the game. That's all I'm looking for, people. Because you know me, I'm the sociopathic, narcissistic pinball podcaster that just needs everybody's attention. But this is how you get the attention, people. You got to take the shots to score. And I put myself on the line a lot. And I've had a lot more right than wrong. And all my fans know it. And all my haters, I just got to say, welcome to Canada's Pinball Podcast. And I'm putting this up for everybody to hear because I'm super excited. Such an awesome time to be in the hobby. And such a terrible time for all of our wallets. Was that a pinball party or what? Later, everybody.