claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.041
Kaneda discusses Pokemon LEs, Stern's Transformers hype, industry artwork critique, and failed startup credibility.
Some Pokemon LEs are still waiting on delivery despite being ordered months ago; numbered LEs received their games first.
high confidence · Kaneda, opening discussion: 'I was in the thread, like, and people are still waiting to get this game. Really uncharacteristic of Stern to have this, like, delay on LEs.'
Pokemon LE secondary market pricing is $16K-$23K; Kaneda sold a second Pokemon LE for $23,000 to a buyer in week one.
high confidence · Kaneda: 'Did get for my second Pokemon LE... $23,000. The scalper king baby... It was the easiest game to scalp week one.'
Coil stop issues persist on Stern machines; Christopher Lorenzo says they are 'better now' but problems remain.
medium confidence · Kaneda and chat discussion: 'Why can't they fix this coil stop problem? What's the issue? It just doesn't make any sense. We've been talking about these broken coil stops now for years. Cheap parts, that's why?'
Pokemon will hold value around $13K-$15K long-term due to code updates expected to expand the game's depth.
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'I think that's going to hold strong eventually around 15. That's my guess... when more of the code goes into this game... it's going to wake up? It's going to drop 13 for sure.'
Transformers has had 25 months of development time and will be 'the most impressive game in terms of what's in it that Stern has ever launched.'
medium confidence · Kaneda citing Stern individuals: 'Elliot Eismin has had 25 months to develop Transformers... it will be looked at as the most impressive Stern offering of all time.'
Transformers will feature full G1 voice cast including Peter Cullen and Frank Welker (confirmed alive); includes 'You Got the Touch' song.
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'Frank Wheeler... he's dead, but he was the voice of Megatron... Peter Cullen's doing the call outs. It's going to be amazing... Full G1, full G1 Transformers.' (Note: Later corrects Frank Welker as still alive.)
Stern no Stern LE has held its value over five years; market signals declining confidence in $13K LE pricing.
“I'm shocked to hear that some people are still waiting on their Pokemon LEs... Really uncharacteristic of Stern to have this, like, delay on LEs.”
Kaneda@ 3:33 — Highlights unusual Pokemon LE delivery delays; establishes context for secondary market discussion.
“Did get for my second Pokemon LE... $23,000. The scalper king baby... It was the easiest game to scalp week one.”
Kaneda@ 12:56 — Demonstrates extreme secondary market pricing and resale profit; reflects FOMO-driven collector behavior.
“Elliot Eismin has had 25 months to develop Transformers... it will be looked at as the most impressive Stern offering of all time.”
Kaneda (citing Stern individuals)@ 18:42 — Insider information about Transformers hype and development investment; suggests major feature set.
“I'm so happy the Pokemon company did not let Stern alter any of its IP. Isn't it amazing when you limit Stern's ability to creatively have freedom?”
Kaneda@ 28:36 — Critiques Stern's creative decisions; suggests IP restrictions improve final product quality.
“Winchester is a tournament players game... It is too tough for the average player... the average player is going to be more frustrated than having fun.”
Kaneda@ 15:32 — Distinguishes between accessibility-focused games (Pokemon) and skill-focused designs (Winchester); identifies market segmentation.
“There is not a single Stern LE that has held its value in five years... the market has told us that they do not see Stern LEs at a consistent price of $13,000.”
product_concern: Pokemon LE machines experiencing unusual delivery delays; numbered LEs prioritized over standard LEs. Kaneda describes this as 'really uncharacteristic of Stern.'
high · Kaneda: 'I was in the thread, like, and people are still waiting to get this game. Really uncharacteristic of Stern to have this, like, delay on LEs... numbered folks who paid more for a specific number got their games. Everyone else is still waiting.'
product_concern: Coil stop failures persist on Stern machines despite years of community complaints. Issue linked to cheap parts used in manufacturing.
medium · Kaneda: 'We've been talking about these broken coil stops now for years... Why can't they fix this coil stop problem?... Cheap parts, that's why?'
market_signal: Pokemon LE secondary market pricing shows extreme FOMO-driven demand: $16K-$23K (vs. $12,999 MSRP). Kaneda sold a unit for $23K in week one. Market shows resistance to holding $13K pricing long-term.
high · Kaneda: '$23,000. The scalper king baby... It was the easiest game to scalp week one... three new in box sellers that are discounting their LE Pokemons to now under 16K.'
market_signal: Market signals consistent rejection of Stern's $13K LE pricing tier. No Stern LE has retained value over five years; Jaws LE damaged by Jaws 50th release cannibalization.
high · Kaneda: 'There is not a single Stern LE that has held its value in five years... the market has spoken... they do not see Stern LEs at a consistent price of $13,000.'
machine_intel: Pokemon pinball code is currently underdeveloped; substantial room for updates and rules expansion expected. Kaneda predicts code depth will drive long-term demand and value.
youtube_groq_whisper · $0.262
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'There is not a single Stern LE that has held its value in five years... the market has spoken. The market has told us that they do not see Stern LEs at a consistent price of $13,000.'
Pokemon's art package is superior because IP restrictions prevented Stern from altering Pokemon Company assets.
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'I'm so happy the Pokemon company did not let Stern alter any of its IP... Isn't it amazing when you limit Stern's ability to creatively have freedom.'
Winchester is too difficult for average players and lacks broad appeal; better suited for tournament players.
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'Winchester is a tournament players game... It is too tough for the average player... the average player is going to be more frustrated than having fun.'
Deep Root Pinball's Raza code updates and failed startup credibility damaged industry trust; industry has 'weeded out' failed companies and personnel.
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'there was like Raza code update, like updates every day on Fun with Bone... If Melvin does make Raza, it is 100% the Steven Bowden code... I do think our hobby has reached a point... if you get burned by any new startup, like it's on you now.'
Kaneda@ 12:14 — Challenges Stern's LE pricing strategy; signals market resistance to $13K tier.
“I do think our hobby has reached a point now where if you get burned by any new startup, like it's on you now. There's no one else to blame.”
Kaneda@ 41:49 — Reflects community consensus on failed startups; suggests industry has moved past gullibility phase.
“Damien will never be back. Andrew Highway with his ice machine will never be back. Kevin Kulik will never be back. John Papadiuk is a bus driver.”
Kaneda @ industry accountability segment — Lists failed startup personalities; suggests industry has effectively excluded them; refers to Papa Duke's current employment.
“I can walk up to this game, be so satisfied by the shots, know what I'm doing. And in 20 minutes have a very, very, very, very rewarding pinball experience.”
Kaneda@ 17:26 — Defines accessibility appeal of Pokemon; contrasts with complex, frustrating games; reflects casual player philosophy.
“Sonic Transformers will be out well before my Beetlejuice build number... I'm trying to figure out this upstairs area, how I can configure this space to maybe have Pokemon, Sonic, and Transformers.”
Kaneda@ 21:06 — Confirms upcoming releases and home collector buying intent; reveals potential Sonic game availability.
medium · Kaneda: 'there's not much in it code wise... when it wakes up, boy, is it going to wake up?... when we get – more code goes into this game... there's going to be such a greater demand for this game.'
design_philosophy: Clear market divide between casual-accessible games (Pokemon: fun in 20-30 min plays) and tournament-focused designs (Winchester: too difficult for average players). Kaneda advocates for accessibility-first design.
high · Kaneda: 'if I only have 20 minutes or 30 minutes of time to play pinball, I can walk up to this game, be so satisfied... Winchester is too tough for the average player... the average player is going to be more frustrated than having fun.'
product_strategy: Pokemon Company's strict IP control restrictions prevented Stern creative alterations, resulting in superior art package. Kaneda views IP constraints as design improvement tool.
medium · Kaneda: 'I'm so happy the Pokemon company did not let Stern alter any of its IP... Isn't it amazing when you limit Stern's ability to creatively have freedom and they had to go with what the world loves about Pokemon.'
machine_intel: Transformers has received unprecedented 25-month development cycle; described as Stern's 'most impressive offering.' Signals major feature investment and quality expectations.
medium · Kaneda citing Stern insiders: 'Elliot Eismin has had 25 months to develop Transformers... it will be looked at as the most impressive Stern offering of all time.'
licensing_signal: Transformers secured full G1 voice cast: Peter Cullen (Optimus Prime), Frank Welker (Megatron). Includes 'You Got the Touch' song license. Signals premium licensing deal.
high · Kaneda: 'Peter Cullen's doing the call outs... Frank Wheeler... voice of Megatron... You got the touch is also in the G1 show... Full G1, full G1 Transformers.'
design_concern: Patrick Lee's (non-traditional pinball artist) aesthetic concerns; community worries Transformers cabinet won't authentically reflect G1 visual style. Risk of artwork-gameplay disconnect.
medium · Kaneda: 'the Transformers art package is the thing that has me the most worried... Patrick Lee's style is not G1 in my honest opinion... the look of the cabinet... is not going to reflect the G1 nature.'
community_signal: Industry consensus that startup failure responsibility now lies with consumers, not promoters. No credibility given to new unproven manufacturers; established companies have eliminated risk.
high · Kaneda: 'if you get burned by any new startup, like it's on you now... There's zero risk you're going to lose your money [with legitimate companies]... There's no point in speculating on a startup.'
industry_signal: Industry has effectively excluded failed startup personalities: Papa Duke (now bus driver), Damien Harden, Marty, Andrew Highway, Kevin Kulik. No platform or credibility remaining.
high · Kaneda: 'Damien will never be back... Kevin Kulik will never be back... John Papadiuk is a bus driver... this hobby does a good job of ultimately weeding out... the people that have really created a lot of heartache for people.'