Episode 1195: "Kaneda Rants About Dungeon Crawlers, Pokemon Scalpers & $1,000 Alice Game"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·19m 24s·analyzed·Mar 4, 2026

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.030

TL;DR

Kaneda critiques Dungeon Crawler Carl viability, Pokemon scalper oversupply, and miniature pinball quality for price.

Summary

Kaneda delivers a sprawling rant on Barrels of Fun's business viability, criticizing the Dungeon Crawler Carl theme as niche and arguing that 500-unit game runs cannot sustain a boutique manufacturer. He also discusses the Pokemon LE scalping market collapse, praising the $1,000 Alice miniature pinball machine despite delamination issues, and provides market analysis on game secondary market depreciation trends.

Key Claims

Dungeon Crawler Carl audiobook series has sold 6 million books but this will not translate to successful pinball machine sales at $11,600.
medium confidence · Kaneda opening rant; cites audiobook sales numbers but speculates on pinball conversion
Barrels of Fun sold all 525 Winchester Mystery House units and then asked people for deposits on a topper, signaling cash flow issues.
high confidence · Kaneda claims this as factual evidence of financial stress; this is verifiable against Barrels of Fun's public announcements
A pinball company cannot stay in business making only 500 units of a single title given R&D, licensing, music, software, and facility costs.
high confidence · Kaneda's repeated assertion based on industry economics; supported by specific cost breakdown
Dune Pinball could only sell 700 units despite being 'a spectacular looking machine'.
medium confidence · Kaneda states as fact; number appears verifiable via sales records
Pokemon LE scalpers are oversupplied with 12+ machines listed at $20,000 on Pinside with no buyers; realistic price should be $17,000.
high confidence · Kaneda observes current market conditions; specific pricing analysis based on secondary market observation
The $1,000 Alice Goes to Wonderland miniature pinball machine has a playfield delamination issue from plexiglass that warps ball trajectory.
high confidence · Kaneda describes specific manufacturing defect observed; corroborates YouTuber unboxing content
Pokemon LE buyers are mostly speculators and distro curmudgeons, not genuine Pokemon franchise fans.
medium confidence · Kaneda's inference from scalping behavior; opinion based on market observation
George Gomez and Stern are not threatened by boutique manufacturers like Barrels of Fun.
medium confidence · Kaneda's opinion comparing Stern's global production scale to boutique output

Notable Quotes

“Do you think Chris Turner needs Turner Pinball to be successful, to put food on the table? Spooky Pinball, this is it. This is this family's livelihood.”
Kaneda @ early segment — Highlights financial dependency differences between well-funded vs. bootstrapped manufacturers
“Even after they sold all 525 Winchester Mystery Houses, they after that asked people for deposits on a topper. We've never seen a pinball company require a deposit on a topper. That reeked of some cash flow issues.”
Kaneda @ mid-segment — Key claim about Barrels of Fun's potential financial strain; signals manufacturing/cash flow stress
“There is no way a pinball company can really stay in business if you're only making 500 of a single title.”
Kaneda @ mid-segment — Core thesis about minimum viable scale for boutique manufacturers
“I think you're about $3,000 off. I think 17 grand, that's a $4,000 profit for doing nothing. I think 17 grand, you got yourself a deal.”
Kaneda @ Pokemon scalping section — Specific secondary market pricing guidance for Pokemon LE; demonstrates market expertise
“It's $1,000 for a freaking full game. People are spending like 600 bucks on a shooter rod for Evil Dead. People have spent $2,000 on a Foo Fighters topper. It's an entire miniature game.”
Kaneda @ Alice game section — Defends $1,000 miniature pinball as value despite quality issues; contextualizes accessory pricing
“Nobody is used to losing so much money to unload their existing games to get the new stuff. It used to be like, you played a game for a year. If you lost, you lost 500 bucks. If you made money, you made three to $4,000. That's how it used to be for like a decade. Now it's like, I lost 4,000.”
Kaneda @ secondary market analysis section — Documents shift in collector economics and depreciation patterns
“If you're going to scalp a game like Pokemon, you got to move fast. You can't wait two weeks. It's like a killer. The big window is right away.”

Entities

Kanedaperson Barrels of Funcompany David Van Nessperson Brian Savageperson Chris TurnerpersonSpooky PinballcompanyTurner Pinballcompany

Signals

?
business_signal: Kaneda claims Barrels of Fun requested deposits on a Winchester Mystery House topper after selling out all 525 units, signaling potential cash flow strain.
medium · Even after they sold all 525 Winchester Mystery Houses, they after that asked people for deposits on a topper. We've never seen a pinball company require a deposit on a topper. That reeked of some cash flow issues.
$
market_signal: Pokemon LE experiencing secondary market collapse with 12+ machines listed at $20,000 on Pinside with minimal buyer interest.
high · There's 12 for sale right now for $20,000 and none of them are moving... I think you're about $3,000 off. I think 17 grand, that's a $4,000 profit.
?
product_concern: $1,000 Alice miniature pinball machine exhibits playfield delamination from plexiglass causing ball trajectory warping.
high · The playfield is delaminating from the plexiglass that's above it and it's like warping in the middle. And when it does that, it changes the trajectory of the ball.
$
market_signal: Market shift toward higher depreciation losses on pinball games; previously lost ~$500/year, now losing $3,000-$5,000 per title requiring rapid resale.
high · It used to be like, you played a game for a year. If you lost, you lost 500 bucks... Now it's like, I lost 4,000 over here... people are losing three to $5,000 per game.
?
rumor_hype: Kaneda speculates Barrels of Fun's next game after Winchester will be nostalgic 80s IP (Big Trouble in Little China, Never Ending Story) rather than Dungeon Crawler Carl.

Topics

Boutique manufacturer financial viability and minimum viable scaleprimaryBarrels of Fun business model and game pipelineprimarySecondary market scalping and LE pricing dynamicsprimaryPokemon LE oversupply and market collapseprimaryDungeon Crawler Carl IP viability as pinball themesecondary$1,000 miniature pinball machine quality and manufacturingsecondaryCollector market depreciation trends and game hold valuessecondaryStern production capacity and competitive advantage vs boutiquessecondary

Sentiment

mixed(0.35)— Kaneda is critical and skeptical of Dungeon Crawler Carl as viable pinball theme and questions Barrels of Fun's long-term financial model. However, he is enthusiastic about the $1,000 Alice miniature pinball machine and praises Winchester Mystery House, Beetlejuice, and Evil Dead as quality games. He expresses frustration with Pokemon LE scalpers but acknowledges the game itself is good. Overall tone is cautionary and analytical rather than purely negative.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.058

They told him, don't you ever come around here. Don't want to see your face, you better disappear. The fire's in their eyes, their words are really clear. So beat it, just beat it. I said, I said, I said, I said, I said, I said, I said. Alright, I'm just gonna like tell everybody who thinks that Dungeon Crawl Carl will be a great theme for pinball. Just beat it, just beat it. Are you out of your freaking minds? Do you not understand what's about to drop in the pinball world this year? And you think a audio book series that has sold 6 million books is all of a sudden going to translate into a successful pinball machine. But you know what? You know what? Let me play devil's advocate. Selling 500 units is not a successful pinball game. It is not enough to keep a boutique pinball company in business unless, here's the big caveat, unless your boutique pinball company is funded by ancillary income or revenue, unless you have outside money. Do you think Chris Turner needs Turner Pinball to be successful, to put food on the table? Spooky pinball, this is it. This is this family's livelihood. this is their way out this is their way up look at the difference between companies that have private equity or like really wealthy backers look at the difference between the products they put out and the products the company like spooky puts out but look here's the deal here's the deal i don't think barrels of fun is one of these like nepo baby trust fund companies i don't i know brian Savage probably has some money. David David Van Es made some money, but they're not backed by like hundreds of millions of dollars or billions of dollars. They need income. They need cash flow. You know how I know this? Even after they sold all 525 Winchester mystery houses, they after that asked people for deposits on a topper. We've never seen a pinball company require a deposit on a topper. That reeked of some cash flow issues because they knew they weren't gonna be able to get all these games out quickly. But here's my thing. It's like, yeah, if you make 500 games, you might be able to find enough people to buy every single game Carl D'Python Anghelo makes if your goal is just 500. But trust me when I say this, A company that goes through all the R&D necessary, that has to pay the artist, has to pay the license, has to pay the music guy, has to pay the software team, has to pay the development team, has to pay all the vendors, has to pay the rent for the building. There is no way a pinball company can really stay in business if you're only making 500 of a single title. Now you could say, look, Kaneda, they might make 500 Winchesters, 500 dungeon crawler cars. But the thing is this, they're not going to be able to develop like software for both games at the same time. Look, I'm willing to give you guys that none of us would have called it that Winchester's mystery house would have hit the way it hit. But even then, right, it's like hit the way it hit. Imagine if you're George Gomez, you're walking around Pinball Expo. you sold thousands of Star Wars games which they did even though the game sucks they sold thousands of them and you're gonna make a few thousand games in just a couple months you're walking around the show everyone's dogging on you and everyone's celebrating Stern's in trouble because of Winchester's Mystery House or Stern's in trouble because of Beetlejuice Stern is looking at these guys like wait I don't understand we can't survive only selling 500 units of anything For some of these people saying that this is a great theme, it's like stick to your last. I'll give you Winchester. I'm not going to give this to you. I don't think that a dungeon crawler Carl is capable of selling at $11,600, 500 units. I don't. Even if Carl D'Python Anghelo is doing it, let me ask you some questions. What are the assets for the game? There is no TV shows or movies yet There might be Look this property might blow up one day because it not blown up yet And for you jackasses and I mean it you jackasses acting like this thing is huge It not huge This is the equivalent of like I work on Bud Light and this is a dude that got a craft beer somewhere in like the middle of like Iowa that's doing really well locally. That's the difference. We sell 20,000 Bud Lights every minute in America. 20,000. Okay, so yeah, I get that 6 million people have listened to these audio books on Audible for the most part, not book sold audio books. So I get it. And look, I'm glad this guy did this. Never heard of it. It's really niche. It's somewhat interesting, the storyline. It seems like it was written by a dude that grew up in the 80s and 90s like myself. But man, let's not forget, it takes a lot. it's going to take a lot to get people to spend a lot of money on a pinball machine. And for those of you out there, if I'm like, all right, barrels of fun, Goonies, Transformers, Big Trouble in Little China, or Dungeon Crawler Carl. I mean, put it in all the surveys and it's going to be at the way bottom. So look, the good news is this thing is not close. This is not the next game from barrels of fun. It's not. Carl just did Winchester. So it's not going to be this. I do think, though, I do think if I were a betting man, I think this company is going to have a nostalgic 80s movie next, whether it's Big Trouble, whether it's like the never ending story. And then Carl will be up again because he's been designing his next game well before he even finished Winchester's Mystery House. So an exciting time to be in pinball. I love speculating on this stuff because if you've listened to what I just said, I'm Like, look, they may find 500 buyers, but there's no way Barrels of Fun can set the finish line on a game at 500 units and stay in business forever. It's just not going to work. They need a game that on day one is capable of getting 1,000 orders. Now, David and company have to be like, what the heck, man? We got this Dune game. We've got all the assets. We put all the effort into it. And Dune is a spectacular looking machine. and they could only get 700 sold. I've been saying this, any theme you pick that doesn't get more buyers than Canada's got of subscribers is a bad theme. Speaking of bad themes, man, did you see what's happening over at this, like Alice Goes to Wonderland, this like pinball amusements, I forget the whole company name. They've got that $1,000 game, okay? This game is cheaper. It is cheaper than a Stern Topper. It is half the price of some of these Stern toppers. It's an entire miniature pinball machine that you assemble. It comes in boxes and they've been working with, you know, some of those YouTubers like Kong and other people out there to sort of unbox this thing, screw it together and give it a few whirls, you know, and look, it's got a major issue. It's got a major issue. The play field is delaminating from the plexiglass that's above it and it's like warping in the middle. And when it does that, it changes the trajectory of the ball. Guess what? Nobody who this game is designed for would give two craps about that. This is a thousand dollar pinball machine, people. This thing is meant to go into like Killian's bedroom or children's bedrooms to get them into pinball. They're not going to be like, oh man, my path trajectory just got like sent in the wrong direction. Nobody's going to care. It's $1,000 for a freaking full game. People are spending like 600 bucks on a shooter rod for Evil Dead. People have spent $2,000 on a Foo Fighter topper. People are spending $4,000 on kiss toppers. It's an entire miniature game. And so any complaints about this thing not living up to your expectations? What the F did you expect? It's a miracle this thing even exists. I don't even know how they're making money on this. Yeah, they should have glued it down and they'll probably figure out a sob moving forward. But still, how can anybody be unhappy? For $1,000, I fully expected these guys to ship an empty box to people. This was like a Kickstarter that everybody said could never work. It does work. It shoots better than Star Wars Fall of the Empire I making this stuff up as I go You know what the best part of this week You know what so much fun this week Watching all these Pokemon scalpers have no chance at moving these games now at $20,000. As a professional scalper myself, I have to tell each and every one of you, you waited too long. You waited too long. And now there's like 12 for sale ads on pin side, all at $20,000. All you dingbats are trying to move this game at 20 grand. It's not going to happen. No one's going to go in now because the whole point is you need FOMO, right? Fear of missing out. There is no FOMO when you see 10 for sale and nobody out there in the world, nobody wants to spend 20 on it to begin with because they know it was 13 and the only way you were going to get around $20,000 if you hit right away. But now, now it's clear that there's like too much supply. Yeah, the demand is there, but you guys don't know. You don't know what price people want it at. All you know is the price you think you're going to get for one because you have one. And let me tell you something. I think you're about $3,000 off. I think 17 grand, that's a $4,000 profit for doing nothing. I think 17 grand, you got yourself a deal. I think all these ones at 20, no deals coming whatsoever. I just got hit up by a friend of the show. He's like, I got a friend in Florida. He wants 22,000 for his Pokemon LE. Can you help me out? I'm like, dude, I can't help. I can't help. There's 12 for sale right now for $20,000 and none of them are moving. It's not going to work. Look, I think everybody just wants to get on a Pokemon and see if it's fun or not. I think that's where everybody is at right now. I still think overall, Pokemon LEs are going to hold value just fine. I think most people out there, if you bought Stern LEs over the last few years, you've been burned. You're not going to get burned on this. You're not going to lose money on this. Pokemon is not going to now become a $10,000 LE. If that does happen, then games like D&D and John Wick and Foo Fighters, we're going to start to see like $7,500 LEs real soon. There's so much, man. I keep telling my friends this. I know what's coming out. You need to look down your lineup and really ask yourself, do you want to have the old stuff that nobody's going to want when they see this new stuff. I mean it. There are very, very few of those older games that nobody's going to really want, either because they've been out for so many years or just the new stuff is so much better or more enticing. And nobody's used to this. This is the new pinball world, people. Nobody is used to losing so much money to unload their existing games to get the new stuff. It used to be like, you played a game for a year. If you lost, you lost 500 bucks. If you made money, you made three to $4,000. That's how it used to be for like a decade. Now it's like, I lost 4,000 over here. Oh crap, now premiums are going for like 6,500. Oh crap, now people are losing three to $5,000 per game. You add it up and trust me, the new mantra and this whole hobby is only buy stuff you love. Only buy stuff you want to hold on to. If you never sell it, you never lose a penny. If you're going to scalp a game like Pokemon, you got to move fast. You can't wait two weeks. It's like a killer. The big window is right away. I think what's going to happen now too is a lot of people that think Transformers is going to go the same way as Pokemon and you're in on a Transformers LE and you're even thinking about like speculating on it. I think you're going to get a big slice of humble pie. It's not really going to be there for you. A lot of guys who bought Alice's Adventures in Wonderland, the Dutch game, if you thought you were going to make any money on it, it's not going to be there for you. The big Lebowski losing money, not going to be there for you. The one holding on right now is Harry Potter. But man, what's going to happen when there's 3,000 Harry Potter CEs in the world, right? It's going to go down a little bit. I don't think it's going to go down a lot. I do think Harry Potter, because of the theme and because of how good the game is, is going to be one of these like games that people don't let go. Because you're also not going to want to let it go because you're not going to want to lose much. You're having a lot of fun with the game. It's a stunning game Beetlejuice Harry Potter the two most stunning games of the last few years and Evil Dead up there I think Dune is up there but the theme doesn excite people Winchester is absolutely stunning Winchester's going to hold value. You don't hear me saying Winchester's not going to hold value. Winchester's just not going to sell for $20,000. That's what I've been saying. I mean, it's still Winchester's mystery house, right? This isn't like Luigi's Mansion or Super Mario Brothers, okay? Even if it was Haunted Mansion from Disney, it would hold more value. It's still Winchester, okay? You guys are funny the way you like manufacture excitement about something you've never seen before, all right? Kind of like the way Kanae is manufacturing so much excitement about Pokemon, even though he wasn't really into it a few months ago. But that's the way we roll, baby. And that's what pinball is meant to do. In the end, all of this is meant to put a smile on our face, make us have a good time, make us enjoy this hobby. And when you see what's coming out this year, it's going to be the best year in all of pinball. But man, we're learning some lessons. I think Transformers is going to be really interesting. I think a lot of people saw what happened with Pokemon, and I think they're going to run at Transformers. The problem with trying to scalp Sterns is very simply this. If you don't want it, you don't want to pay in full. The problem is Stern makes these games so quickly. So if you don't get a quick sale, you're going to run up on, I need to deliver your game to somebody. So who am I delivering it to? And if you don't have a buyer lined up, you're going to get screwed. And so, yeah, for Pokemon, I know a lot of dudes out there, and I bet some of them are you listening right now. You don't want the game. You're in for like $14,000 with like taxes and shipping. You're in for like $14,000, and you think you can make $20,000. But in like three weeks, they are going to ask for an address to ship your game. Now, some of you might ship it to your distro, have them hold on to it, and then they might let you send it to somebody else. But every week that goes by, it's going to be interesting because more and more desperate people to sell are going to pop up. It's not going to be the other way. Now, after the game has been out for like a couple of months, if Stern really makes this game amazing and the code makes this game really incredible, then yeah, we're going to start to see a game like Pokemon LE settle down and people who really want one will get one. But I'm surprised by the amount of people trying to scalp this game. It just goes to show me this, that none of the Pokemon fans were able to get one at MSRP. None of them. All the LEs went to the curmudgeons who are on every distro's list for the next deli. That's who bought this game. And so many of them just said, I'll take it even if they didn't want it. The problem is too many did that. There weren't enough genuine, authentic fans of the franchise that were able to get their hands on Pokemon. I don't think that was true of Evil Dead. I don't think that was true of Beetlejuice. I think there was more crossover. I think there were fans of the theme and pinball who just wanted it and that's why you didn't see a ton for sale heck man evil dead spooky still had them for sale a couple months after it was revealed which meant only fans bought it that's the thing only fans bought it i don't think pokemon is going to mostly pokemon fans and you could argue there aren't that many pokemon fans in pinball but i think that is the scenario we are dealing with. It is super exciting to watch. And I'm telling you right now, if you need to move your Pokemon, $17,000, I think you get yourself a deal. I think a penny over, I don't think you're gonna get many offers. Dungeon Crawler Carl, it's so niche. Carl D'Python Anghelo might be able to move another 500 unit game. I don't think 500 unit games keeps barrels of fun in business. They need something where they can sell 1,000 right away, the same way Spooky sold Beetlejuice. Stern is not in trouble because of these boutiques. George Gomez looks at these games. He is laughing. I mean, look at what he's built. He's shipping games all over the world. He has another manufacturing facility in South America. And these guys can't even get 50 games out the door in six months. He's not threatened by this. Kaneda out. Bye.