Episode 679: "Toy Story Will Be Epic"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·20m 0s·analyzed·May 19, 2022

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.033

TL;DR

Kaneda predicts Pat Lawlor's unreleased Toy Story will be transformative, claiming only three designers matter and other manufacturers are 'amateurs.'

Summary

Kaneda passionately argues that Pat Lawlor's upcoming Toy Story pinball machine will be his final opus and greatest achievement, predicting it will revolutionize the market and set a new standard for thematic integration and playfield design. He contends that only three designers currently matter in pinball—Lawlor, Eric Minier, and Keith Elwin—and criticizes Stern's focus on gameplay over theme immersion and other manufacturers for lacking innovation. He claims Willy Wonka was a rushed game created when Toy Story development was delayed, and that someone who worked on Toy Story at Jersey Jack Pinball confirmed it's an exceptional game despite Lawlor's difficult personality.

Key Claims

Pat Lawlor designed Addams Family, which sold over 22,000 machines, making it the most successful pinball machine of all time.
high confidence · Kaneda, opening statement; this is a documented historical fact about Addams Family's sales.
Toy Story will be Pat Lawlor's final pinball machine and his retirement.
medium confidence · Kaneda, based on conversation with someone who worked at Jersey Jack Pinball; not officially confirmed by Lawlor or JJP.
Willy Wonka was a rushed game designed in 6-8 months as a pivot when Toy Story missed Disney's Toy Story 4 launch window.
medium confidence · Kaneda claims to have spoken to Jersey Jack Pinball employees who told him parts for Toy Story arrived at the factory a year before Wonka's release.
Toy Story will be 'loaded' with features, toys, and thematic elements and is the greatest game Lawlor has ever designed.
medium confidence · Kaneda cites unnamed person who played Toy Story and called it 'one of the greatest games he's ever played,' despite disliking Lawlor.
Only three pinball designers currently matter: Eric Minier, Pat Lawlor, and Keith Elwin.
low confidence · Kaneda's opinion stated emphatically; he dismisses Brian Eddy, John Borg, and other designers as not pushing envelopes.
Stern Pinball games prioritize gameplay over thematic immersion and are underdesigned in terms of toys and mechanics.
low confidence · Kaneda's critical opinion; he argues Stern fanboys value gameplay above all else and Stern deliberately avoids spending on 'magical' underplay.
Toy Story will sell out faster than any game ever released and CE versions will appreciate 6,000-8,000 dollars on secondary market.
low confidence · Kaneda's prediction based on hype and demand speculation; not verifiable until release and secondary market activity.
Pat Lawlor is angry and motivated by lack of appreciation for Dialed In and Willy Wonka, which aren't in Pinside top 100.

Notable Quotes

“The man that made Addams Family Pinball, a game that sold over 22,000 machines, is about to make his final pinball machine.”
Kaneda @ ~1:00-2:00 — Sets up the central premise—Lawlor's retirement and final opus.
“Pat Lawlor is a bit of a prick but I don't care Steve Jobs is a prick I use his phone... Pat Lawlor is pinball machines.”
Kaneda @ ~3:00-4:00 — Establishes Kaneda's framing of Lawlor as a difficult genius whose brilliance outweighs personality flaws.
“I spoke to someone who worked at Jersey Jack Pinball... he said, after all of that is considered, that this is still a great game. This is one of the greatest games he's ever played.”
Kaneda @ ~5:00-6:00 — Key claim sourced to unnamed insider; core evidence for Toy Story's quality.
“Willy Wonka was a rushed game... Pat Lawlor was working on Toy Story and he couldn't finish it... So what happened? They quickly made Willy Wonka.”
Kaneda @ ~8:00-10:00 — Alleges Wonka was a stopgap created due to Toy Story delays; controversial reframing of a released product.
“Those are the only three designers that matter right now... Those are the only three designers that matter right now. And I don't care if there's six, seven, eight, nine, ten companies making pinball machines.”
Kaneda @ ~30:00-35:00 — Bold market opinion dismissing all other manufacturers and designers; likely to generate backlash.
“I think this launch is going to have more brewing company excitement, more brewing company enthusiasm, and have more brewing company people clamoring to get one than any pinball machine I've ever covered.”
Kaneda @ ~50:00-55:00 — Superlative prediction about Toy Story's market impact; Kaneda putting personal credibility on line.
“this game is going to land like nothing else... This is going to be Pat Lawlor's greatest machine ever.”
Kaneda @ ~55:00-60:00 — Explicit claim Toy Story exceeds all of Lawlor's previous games, including Addams Family.

Entities

Pat Lawlorperson Kanedaperson Jersey Jack PinballcompanyEric MinierpersonKeith Elwinperson Steve Ritchieperson

Signals

?
machine_intel: Pat Lawlor's Toy Story pinball is described as complete and ready for imminent release; Kaneda claims to have received third-party confirmation that the game is 'loaded' and exceptional.
medium · Kaneda states: 'I spoke to someone who played this game' and describes it as finished, playable, and ready to dominate market.
?
product_strategy: Kaneda predicts Toy Story CE will sell out immediately with insufficient supply to meet demand; suggests 6,000-8,000 dollar secondary market premiums.
low · Kaneda: 'I don't care if they make a thousand they will not be able to make enough collector's editions to satiate the demand.'
?
design_innovation: Toy Story described as featuring unprecedented thematic integration, multiple toys/mechs, memorable moments, and 'world under glass' design philosophy from Lawlor.
medium · Unnamed insider source claims it's 'loaded' and 'incredible to shoot'; Kaneda frames it as antidote to Stern's sparse design approach.
~
sentiment_shift: Pat Lawlor's reputation at Jersey Jack Pinball may be in transition; Toy Story framed as redemption narrative after Dialed In and Wonka perceived as disappointing.
medium · Kaneda claims Lawlor is 'angry' and motivated to prove himself; Toy Story is 'statement' against doubters and peer designers.
?
industry_signal: Kaneda argues pinball market has consolidated around only three viable designers (Lawlor, Minier, Elwin); all other manufacturers irrelevant regardless of quantity.
low · Kaneda repeatedly states: 'Those are the only three designers that matter right now' and dismisses all other companies.

Topics

Pat Lawlor's Toy Story as Final OpusprimaryDesigner Hierarchy (Lawlor vs. Minier vs. Elwin)primaryWilly Wonka as Rushed Pivot GameprimaryStern's Gameplay-Over-Theme PhilosophyprimarySecondary Market Pricing and Collector DemandsecondaryThematic Integration in Modern PinballsecondaryJersey Jack Pinball's Direction and Lawlor's RolesecondaryManufacturer Competitiveness and Market Consolidationmentioned

Sentiment

positive(0.85)— Kaneda is extremely enthusiastic and bullish on Toy Story, uses superlatives throughout, and is energized by the prospect of Lawlor's final game. However, the tone is also critical and dismissive of most other manufacturers and designers, creating a 'us vs. them' dynamic. The sentiment is passionate advocacy mixed with harsh gatekeeping about which designers 'matter.'

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.060

And I'm free! We're all free! Oh yeah! Sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up! Ah, welcome to Canada's Pinball Podcast, the only honest pinball podcast left in the pinball podcasting world. I'm gonna be honest. I'm gonna tell you exactly how I feel about what I think is about to go down in pinball. And I hope this doesn't upset you. I hope this doesn't make you want to unsubscribe to Canada's Pinball Podcast. But I think something is about to happen that is never going to happen again. And what that is, is very simple. We are going to see the retirement and the final game of a pinball designer that has designed the most successful pinball machine of all time. Let me repeat that. The man that made Adam's Family Pinball, a game that sold over 22,000 machines, is about to make his final pinball machine. He is a man that is arguably one of the greatest pinball designers of all time. He is a man that has a legacy intact. He's a bit of a jerk. He's a bit of a prick. everybody I ask about him says Pat Lawler is a bit of a prick but I don't care Steve Jobs is a prick I use his phone there's many geniuses out there in the creative world who are jerks but they're jerks because they don't want to listen to anyone else you know who's a jerk Axl Rose he's a prick he's not going to take your advice on how to make music and Pat Lawler is not going to take your advice on how to make pinball machines and so we have a man who has been in this hobby for decades who's had many, many titles. He has the most successful game of all time. One of the second most successful games of all time. And he's been at Jersey Jack pinball and he hasn't really had a home run. He hasn't. Dialed in was not a home run. Willy Wonka was a rushed job. We're going to talk about this. But now he's about to retire and put out his final pinball machine ever. This is it. This is the swan song. This is the opus of Mr. Pat Lawler. Do you think Pat Lawler is going to go out with a whimper? You think he's going to go out with a game that is barren? A game that only has lights? A game that doesn't have anything magical in it? You think Pat Lawler is going to go out without a world under glass? You think Pat Lawler is going to go out and let Eric Minier and Keith Elwin be heralded as the best pinball designers of this period? And I'm here to tell you right now, I spoke to someone who worked at Jersey Jack Pinball. I spoke to someone who's played this game. I've spoke to someone who thinks that Pat Lawler is a total jerk. And he said, after all of that is considered, that this is still a great game. This is one of the greatest games he's ever played. This is Pat Lawler's greatest hits. This is going to be a game that is unlike anything we've seen at Jersey Jack Pinball. And I can hear what you're saying already. Didn't you tell us this about Wonka, Chris? Didn't you overhype Wonka? Didn't you overhype Mandalorian? Well, I might have had stars in my eyes around Willy Wonka because I got to play it before everybody else. It's quite clear what Willy Wonka was. Willy Wonka was rushed. Willy Wonka was a game that they probably designed and developed in like six to eight months because Pat Lawler was working on Toy Story and he couldn't finish it. He couldn't finish it in time to get it out when Disney wanted it. So what happened? They quickly made Willy Wonka. Now I am here to tell you right now that I think that Willy Wonka isn't even a reskin of Toy Story. I think Willy Wonka is just some design that Pat had in the works. He put the screen with the Wonka vision and then nothing else really relates to Willy Wonka. Think about it for a minute. If you watch the Willy Wonka movies and you're Pat Lawler, there is no way you are designing the game we got. And I'm so tired of Wonka fanatics trying to defend this title. Willy Wonka was a rushed game. It is not a world under glass that brings the Willy Wonka movies to life. And they know that. And everyone I talked to who worked at Jersey Jack Pinball will say the same thing. A year before Willy Wonka came out, they will tell you that every single part coming into the factory for Pat Lawler's next game said Toy Story on it. And here's what I think happened. When Disney said, we are not launching it because you're going to miss the launch of Toy Story 4, they quickly pivoted to Willy Wonka. And I think Pat Lawler still held back a lot of the magic that was supposed to be in Toy Story and quickly made Willy Wonka And that is why I think this game that about to come out which is Toy Story is going to be one of the longest in games that Pat Lawler has ever done. It is going to be his final statement in the pinball world. And from the person who saw this game, who is gushing about it to me, who hates Pat Lawler, I mean, think about that for a minute. This guy cannot stand Pat Lawler, but he will not deny the fact that this game is loaded. It's incredible to shoot, and it is going to be what I believe the greatest pinball machine we see this year. I think it's going to be the greatest pinball machine we see in a long time. And I know I'm going on the record for saying that, and I know it seems ignorant to say that, But I'm about to drop a bunch of truth bombs right now on all of you. And maybe some of you want to unsubscribe after you hear this, but this is how I really feel. I think the pinball hobby, with where the prices are at, only have three designers. And I mean this. It only has three designers that are actually doing stuff that's interesting, things that are innovative, and things that you are looking out for. And those three designers are Eric Minier, and Pat Lawler, and Keith Elwin. And that's it. And there is nobody else designing games right now that gets you all giddy, that gets you all excited, that gets you waiting for what's next from them. Think about it. Are you waiting to see what Brian Eddy does after what he did with Stranger Things and with Mandalorian? No, you're not. Brian Eddy to me has had the biggest flop comeback of anybody. Because he had Medieval Madness and Attack from Mars. And he comes out of the gates with Stranger Things and the Projector. And then he comes back with Mandalorian that has absolutely nothing. I mean nothing in it is magical or interesting. And he falls back. And I mean this when I say it. The Stern fanboys are so annoying because they fall back on gameplay equaling everything. In the Stern fanboy world, if a game flows and has gameplay, who cares if it has no magic under the glass? Who cares if it has no toys, no mechs, no nothing? Who cares if the light shows aren't any good? Who cares if there's no memorable moments in the game? As long as you can have some gameplay, they are here to tell you that these games are fun and these games are amazing. And that is exactly what Stern wants you to believe. Because Stern Pinball knows that it's easy to make a game flow well. It's easy to have like three flippers, four flippers and make a game shoot well. But what Stern Pinball doesn't want to do is spend any money engineering anything magical. What they don't want to do is create environments under the glass that pay homage to that theme you love. Like look at Mandalorian and tell me what under the glass of Mandalorian is amazing. Look at Stranger Things. There's nothing in the Stranger Things world. And I love those three seasons of the show. There's nothing in that show that says we need a projector to be the main feature in the game. You know, and then you got guys like John Borg, which he's not bad. Like Borg is not bad, but Borg's not pushing the envelope anywhere. Like anywhere, like nobody is gushing over Ninja Turtles. Nobody's gushing over Rush. Nobody's gushing over the Munsters. Again, John Borg is not bad, but John Borg isn't taking things to another level. He's not releasing games that when you see it, you say, oh my God, I can't believe what John Borg just put into this game. It's not happening. And maybe he's being held back by the bomb and probably so, but that doesn't really hold water because Keith Elwin has pretty much the same exact bomb as Steve Ritchie does and as John Borg does. Okay, because the truth is this, and nobody wants to believe this, is that the bomb on a Stern game is around $4,000. And now you're paying two to three times as much as it costs them to make a game. And there's just a bitter reality to that. I'm so tired of following a hobby that is paying two to three times what a game costs to make simply because it has gameplay. There should be more in these games. You know what? No one is doing it better than Keith Elwin. I will say it right now. Nobody is making a better pinball experience than Keith Elwin. His games shoot amazingly well. They all, for the most part, have a lot of toys in them. They all, for the most part, when you stand over a Keith Elwin pin, you see a world under glass. The artwork is tremendous. Everything about Elwin's pins are pretty much great. And I would say right now in the pinball world nobody is doing it better than Keith Elwin And I want to clarify this It not just Keith Elwin It's his team. Stern has given Elwin the greatest team to make his games. And that is why every time you get a new Keith Elwin game, you're not just getting it from him. You're getting it from his entire team that is working with him on each future title. And so if you're in the pinball world right now, you've got Keith Elwin's new games, which are super exciting to wait for. You've got Pat Lawler's games, which are super exciting to wait for. And you've got Eric Minier's games. And that's it. And I don't care if there's six, seven, eight, nine, ten companies making pinball machines. Those are the only three designers that matter right now. And I know that's a bitter pill to swallow if you're Gerry Stellenberg or you're Buggin' Luke and Chuck over at Spooky or if you're like anyone else in the pinball world. Nobody really looks at your other games as if you're on the same level as Eric Minier, Pat Lawler, and Keith Elwin. And at these prices where almost every single product costs the same amount of money. Here's the crazy part. All of these pinball machines cost about the same amount of money. So why would you even in a million years consider buying something that's not from those three people unless it's a dream theme? I get it. I can hear the Rush fans yelling at me right now. But this hobby, for all of its efforts and all of the games I've seen over the last like six, seven years I've been following pinball, for the most part, it is an underwhelming hobby. hobby. There are an underwhelming amount of games that actually are making magical moments happen in pinball. And you know that. And when those great games come out and you know what they are, it makes everything else seem silly. Games like Godzilla, games like Guns and Roses. And then when you start to think about, well, which one of these great games hasn't had any compromises, you only land on a couple of games. I mean it. Think about it. Which games are a world under glass, have all of the assets you want, have no compromises, and give you everything you want in a pinball experience and in a theme integration? How many games over the last five years actually do that? You're looking at games just like Guns N' Roses, and you're looking at games like Godzilla. You know, Avengers doesn't. It has nothing from the Avengers movie. Jurassic Park doesn't. It has nothing from the Jurassic Park movies. But this is what Stern wants. They don't want you to want more assets. It's also the reason why Jersey Jack pinball machines have been misses. I love the Pirates of the Caribbean movies. And everything I love from the Pirates movies is not in the pinball experience. I can't play and I can't buy a $30,000 Pirates of the Caribbean game that doesn't have all of the humor from Captain Jack Sparrow. I'm not going to buy Alien Pinball without Sigourney Weaver, without Ripley, the main character. I'm not going to buy into this BS, people. And what's about to happen is this. Pat Lawler is about to drop Toy Story and I think it's going to be the most monumental launch in the last five years of pinball. I think this launch is going to have more excitement, more enthusiasm, and have more people clamoring to get one than any pinball machine I've ever covered. More than Guns and Roses, more than Ghostbusters, more than Batman. This is Toy Story, a $3 billion property, a property that every family loves, a property that is global. It is Disney. It is also a movie franchise in which if you look at the rotten tomato scores of Toy Story, every single movie is in the 90s people. These are some of the most critically acclaimed and beloved movies of all time. So all of you fools living in your mom's basement that think stuff like The Evil Dead and Scooby-Doo is a better theme than this, you are so dead wrong on so many levels. And I think what Pat Lawler is about to do is he's about to make a statement. He's about to make a statement to everyone else out there in the pinball world and I mean it and I think the greatest creative ideas come from people who are angry and I firmly believe on this episode of Canada's Pinball Podcast that Pat Lawler is angry. I think he's mad. I think he has felt a lack of adoration and appreciation for Diledon and Willy Wonka. I feel like he's looking at both of those games and he being like these games are nowhere in the top 10 or top 15 greatest games on Pinside top 100 I just feel like he hasn felt like he hit it And I feel like he knows it And I feel like Pat Lawler is the greatest critic of Pat Lawler And I think deep down inside, he knows that he can do much better than Wonka and Dialed In. And I think he knows that his health is not amazing. And that this is it. This is the final game he's ever going to make. and he's going to make a game that makes everyone out there sorry that they ever doubted Pat Lawler. I also think he wants to make a game, and I'm just going to say it, that shows that he is the greatest designer over at Jersey Jack Pinball. It's not Eric Minier. It's him. And I think he wants to make a game that raises the bar to a new level that's going to make it really hard for Eric and Steve Ritchie and everyone else over at Jersey Jack and in pinball to top what he's about to do because what I think is going to happen is also this I think Toy Story is going to come out I think it's going to set a new standard and I think it's going to elevate what we expect in pinball and then I think we're going to start to look at everything else differently you're going to start to look at games like Legends of Valhalla and be like get the hell out of here you're going to look at like Dennis Nordman's original game from American Pinball and be like, get the hell out of here. You're going to look at all these other games out there like Weird Al and be like, get the hell out of here. You're going to look at Fathom and be like, get the hell out of here. You're going to look at everything else and say to yourself, how is it that this Pat Lawler final opus game is roughly the same price as all of this other stuff? And he's going to make everyone out there look like, I'm just going to say it, he's going to make mostly everyone else making games look like they're amateurs. He's going to make Bug look like an amateur. When you put this game next to Halloween and next to Ultraman, I'm telling you right now, it's going to make those games look like amateur hour. And it should because he's Pat freaking Lawler. And this is Bug's first game. Do you think Bug's first game is going to be even on the same level as Pat Lawler's? But here's the scary part. They're going to be almost the same price. My Ultraman with Butter Cabinet is $10,000. I'm not going to write Spooky another check for $8,000. I'm putting that money towards Toy Story. And I think everyone out there who pre-ordered these games with non-refundable deposits, once you see Toy Story, you're going to really regret that you put your money elsewhere. And this game is going to land like nothing else. I'm saying right now. I'm saying it right now. I know that I got you hyped for Wonka, but was I wrong on Guns N' Roses? I was not wrong. And I'm telling you right now, the reason why I'm getting on this mic and telling you right now, this is going to be the greatest pinball machine over the last year, maybe five years. This is going to be it. This is going to be Pat Lawler's greatest machine ever. And if you're not in on one, I'm telling you right now, if you're letting the Mirko play field issues keep you from getting a CE, I think you're going to regret it. I think this game is going to sell out faster than any game has ever sold out. And I think this is going to be the game that is the culmination of Jersey Jack's dream. And the irony is this, is that Pat Lawler basically robbed this company from Jersey Jack. This is a bittersweet moment for the Guarnard family. And it's almost hard for me to report like this because I know what Pat Lawler did to steal this company from Jersey Jack. And it's a little bit of a mixed bag of emotions. But ultimately, this is why Jack wanted Pat on board. He wanted him to make a game like this. This is going to be the game that lives up to Jack's own hype. That every game after Wizard of Oz is going to be more packed and more loaded and more fun than Wizard of Oz. And my voice is shot and I am in on this game 1000%. And I'm telling you right now, if you're sleeping on Toy Story, you're a fool. you're gonna lose money if you want to wait it out and get an le you're a fool you are about to lose six to eight thousand dollars i'm telling you right now i don't care if they make a thousand they will not be able to make enough collector's editions to satiate the demand of this game that's about to come out my voice is gone i can't sleep i love each and every one of you for subscribing kim mitchell i love you a little bit more than everybody else have a great day kaneda out I'm free, I'm free I'm free, I'm free I'm free, I'm free