The Pinball Show Ep 167: The Best & Worst Of 2024 Pinball, A Year In Review

TL;DR

Stern announces vault program, teases 2025 D&D game, Seth Davis discusses pinball's untapped market potential

Summary

Key Claims

• Stern Pinball is implementing a vault program that will retire Deadpool, Iron Maiden, Star Wars (both versions), Avengers Infinity Quest, Elvira's House of Horrors, and Foo Fighters from production for a minimum of two years

  high confidence · Official announcement discussed by Zach Minney; dealers already seeing increased sales from the vault announcement

• The next Stern cornerstone game will be revealed around January 6-7, 2025, with dealers invited to experience it on January 7th at the factory or Vegas for CES

  high confidence · Zach states Stern 'formally invited some media into their factory and or Vegas, because they're doing a CES thing, on January 7th'

• The rumored next Stern cornerstone game is Dungeons & Dragons, believed to be designed by Brian Eddy

  medium confidence · Zach: 'The rumors are telling my tummy that it's Dungeons & Dragons.' Also speculates design resembles Brian Eddy's style rather than Keith Elwin's

• Foo Fighters sold exceptionally well initially due to low expectations and COVID-era saturation buying, then quickly saturated the market and stopped moving

  medium confidence · Zach explains the sales trajectory: 'The sales were pretty much saturated past the expectation level that Stern probably even held for it' within six months

• Seth Davis stated Stern Pinball makes licensing bets two years in advance when developing new games

  high confidence · Loser Kid Pinball Podcast interview; Zach references Seth's quote directly

• Seth Davis believes pinball has not reached its potential consumer audience and that most people misunderstand modern pinball as equivalent to 1970s machines

  high confidence · Loser Kid Pinball Podcast interview; both hosts agree with Seth's assessment about pinball's marketing visibility problem

• Keith Elwin is rumored to be designing King Kong for Stern as a 2025 cornerstone

  medium confidence · Zach: 'The rumored Elwin is King Kong' but notes it's been a year since Jaws and this is speculation

Notable Quotes

• “The rumors are telling my tummy that it's Dungeons & Dragons. Me too. That's what my tummy rumors are saying.”

  Zach Minney and Dennis Creasel @ ~16:30 — Reveals the community speculation about the next Stern cornerstone game before official announcement

• “If these manufacturers are the ones inventorying the products, at that point, that's a big cut to what dealers are helping with.”

  Zach Minney @ ~34:00 — Articulates dealer concerns about the vault program and inventory management strategy; reveals tension between Stern and smaller dealers

• “Data without purpose is meaningless. Is it? Numbers don't lie. They don't, but if you don't know how to or can't do anything about them, were the numbers really there in the first place?”

  Dennis Creasel and Zach Minney @ ~3:30 — Meta-commentary on analytics; reflects broader industry tendency to collect data without actionable outcomes

• “He said, look, gamers grew up. The people who went to the arcades now have the money and they're at home more than they are at these locations and arcades.”

  Zach Minney quoting Seth Davis @ ~42:00 — Seth Davis's explanation for shift from arcade to home collector market; foundational to understanding Stern's current strategy

• “When you ask random people on the street what pinball is, they think of the equivalent of what Pong is to video games now. They think of old 1970.”

  Zach Minney paraphrasing Seth Davis @ ~60:00 — Core problem Seth Davis and hosts identify: pinball's public perception hasn't evolved with the product itself

• “It saturated almost immediately. Within the first six months, that game was, the sales were pretty much saturated past the expectation level that Stern probably even held for it.”

  Zach Minney on Foo Fighters @ ~28:00 — Explains why Foo Fighters is vaulted despite being relatively recent; demonstrates how even successful games can oversaturate quickly

• “Deadpool is almost, it's close to like the Elwin effect where it will just keep selling because it's that good, well-rounded of a game.”

Entities

Signals

• ?

  business_signal: Pinball market saturation risk evident from Foo Fighters rapid market depletion and multiple games sitting in Stern inventory

  high · Multiple vaulted games described as 'sitting' in inventory; Foo Fighters saturated within 6 months despite strong sales

• ?

  business_signal: Stern Vault program retiring seven titles for 2+ years suggests inventory management strategy and license consolidation to improve dealer network efficiency

  high · Zach states this 'puts pressure' on low-volume dealers and encourages value preservation; already seeing increased sales of vaulted titles

• ~

  sentiment_shift: Vault program generates mixed dealer response; some approve value preservation while others question strategy rationale

  medium · Zach: 'Some dealers do not' like the idea, though he personally supports it as value preservation mechanism

• ?

  design_philosophy: Avengers Infinity Quest criticized as lacking emotional resonance despite mechanical quality; described as feeling 'soulless'

  medium · Dennis: 'The code, it feels a little soulless, that game' and Zach agrees it 'didn't go where I wanted it to'

• ?

  licensing_signal: Licensing contracts for vaulted games expire during two-year vault period; Stern may not renew depending on future demand assessment

  high · Zach states: 'most, if not all, the licensing contracts will expire during that two-year period'

• $