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Episode 729: "Numbers Don't Lie, We're Paying Too Much"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·20m 44s·analyzed·Oct 9, 2022
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.029

TL;DR

Pinball prices have inflated 40-260% beyond inflation-adjusted historical costs, driven by manufacturer speculation.

Summary

John Papadiuk argues that modern pinball machines are significantly overpriced compared to historically adjusted costs, presenting data showing games like James Bond 007 (Premium/LE) and Toy Story CE are 40-260% more expensive than classic titles when adjusted for inflation. He attributes the price increases to manufacturers baking in secondary market speculation and scalping profits, concluding that the market is unsustainable and community sentiment is deflated by unaffordable pricing.

Key Claims

  • James Bond 007 (Premium/LE) at $13,000 is 53% more expensive than AC/AC/DC (LE) which cost $8,495 in 2012

    high confidence · John Papadiuk, direct price comparison analysis in episode

  • When adjusted for inflation, Metallica (LE) (2013, $5,695) should cost $9,655 today; James Bond 007 (Premium/LE) is 34.6% more expensive than that inflation-adjusted price

    high confidence · John Papadiuk, inflation-adjusted analysis segment

  • Lord of the Lord of the Rings (LE) (2009, $5,800) when adjusted for inflation would cost $7,978 today; James Bond 007 (Premium/LE) is 63% more expensive than that adjusted price

    high confidence · John Papadiuk, inflation-adjusted historical comparison

  • Disney PIXAR Toy Story 4 (Collector's Edition) is 88% more expensive than Lord of the Lord of the Rings (LE) would be if released today, despite having fewer toys and less content

    high confidence · John Papadiuk, comparative analysis of feature-to-price ratio

  • Cirqus Voltaire (1998, $2,300) when inflation-adjusted would cost $4,179 today; James Bond 007 (Premium/LE) is 211% more expensive; Toy Story CE is 259% more expensive

    high confidence · John Papadiuk, extreme historical price comparison

  • Stern did not set an MSRP for James Bond 007 (Premium/LE); instead gave it to distributors to set their own prices, creating an opaque pricing structure

    high confidence · John Papadiuk, business practice critique

  • Elvira 40th Anniversary distributors received it at $15,000 MSRP but coordinated to ask $25,000, then had to lower prices to $17,000-$18,000 to move inventory

    medium confidence · John Papadiuk, market example of distributor coordination and price collapse

  • Stern Godzilla (Premium/LE) was $10,500, then Rush (Premium/LE) was $11,100, and James Bond 007 (Premium/LE) jumped to $13,000 in just two years

    high confidence · John Papadiuk, recent price escalation timeline

Notable Quotes

  • “Numbers don't lie, we're paying too much. The prices we are getting today are not aligned with what they used to be. They are significantly more money, 20 to 50 to 80 percent more money.”

    John Papadiuk @ ~mid-episode — Core thesis statement with quantified evidence

  • “How many of you out there are making 41.3% more money today than you did just four years ago? This is the problem. This is what I'm feeling.”

    John Papadiuk @ ~Iron Maiden analysis — Connects price inflation to real-world income stagnation, emotional resonance for listener base

  • “Who the hell wants to wake up and spend $20,000 to $25,000 on a single level pinball machine and then have to justify it? You have to make $50,000 before taxes to buy a single level game in 2022.”

    John Papadiuk @ ~distributor pricing discussion — Rhetorical indictment of affordability gap; targets distribution model criticism

  • “They decided they wanted more of that pie for themselves. But how can anyone in this community feel good about this now? Because nobody's winning. Who's winning right now except for the manufacturers?”

    John Papadiuk @ ~late-episode moral critique — Frames manufacturer pricing strategy as extractive and community-harmful

  • “Disney PIXAR Toy Story 4 (Collector's Edition), a game that has barely any toys in it, is 88 percent more money than Lord of the Lord of the Rings (LE) would have been if it came out today. Do you see what I'm talking about, people?”

    John Papadiuk @ ~Toy Story comparison — Highlights perceived value degradation despite price increases

  • “These games are not worth it and the market is gonna get soft real fast if this thing keeps going in this direction.”

    John Papadiuk @ ~market forecast section — Prediction of market correction due to unsustainable pricing

  • “A new game comes out and we're like, oh, and then can't erase the fact of how much they cost... the vibes are not there like the good vibes.”

    John Papadiuk — Describes emotional/cultural shift in community caused by pricing

Entities

John PapadiukpersonStern PinballcompanyJames Bond 007 60th AnniversarygameDisney PIXAR Toy Story 4 (Collector's Edition)gameGodzillagameAC/DC (LE)gameMetallica (LE)gameIron Maiden: Legacy of the Beast (LE)game

Signals

  • $

    market_signal: Manufacturers have baked secondary market speculation and flipping profits into new game MSRP, inflating prices 40-260% above inflation-adjusted historical baselines

    high · Papadiuk's direct accusation: 'These manufacturers have baked into the price the scalping and flipping prices of the game. They saw what we were doing... and they decided they wanted more of that pie for themselves.'

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Community sentiment around new game releases has shifted from enthusiasm to price-driven negativity; described as 'underwhelming year' with deflated vibes

    high · Papadiuk: 'A new game comes out and we're like, oh... and then can't erase the fact of how much they cost... the vibes are not there like the good vibes.'

  • ?

    business_signal: Stern avoided setting MSRP for James Bond LE, delegating to distributors to avoid appearing greedy; enables price manipulation and coordination

    high · Papadiuk: 'Stern doesn't want to seem greedy. They don't want to be the bad cop. They don't want to tell you the price... Why wouldn't they set an MSRP?'

  • $

    market_signal: Elvira 40th Anniversary distributors coordinated to charge $25,000 at retail despite $15,000 MSRP, then had to discount to $17,000-$18,000 due to low sales

    medium · Papadiuk: 'The distributors got together and they all asked $25,000 for the game... They made a hundred and ninety of them but there weren't a hundred and ninety people willing to spend twenty thousand... eventually distributors were calling around offering the game for 17.'

  • ?

    product_concern: Modern games lack proportional mechanical complexity compared to classic titles, yet are priced significantly higher; Toy Story CE has fewer toys than Lord of the Rings yet costs 88% more

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.062

0:00
Welcome everybody to Kenaida's Pinball Podcast. I am back from Las Vegas. I had the most amazing time of my life. My wife Brenda is the greatest woman on the planet. I needed this more than anything. I needed time off. I needed some days away. I needed a day by the pool. I needed three or four days of no pinball, no pin side. And in those three to four days, I want to say I reflected a lot on this hobby. And I do encourage every one of you to travel as much as you can to really fill your life with experiences and not just toys and not just possessions. It is such an old cliche, but it is so true. We really want to look back We're not going to look back on life and remember things we did with people we loved. We're not going to look back on life and feel we were more fulfilled because we bought a $25,000 single level James Bond game that you don't even need. You know you don't need it people. But here's what I was reflecting on because I was thinking a lot about pinball over the last few months and I've been thinking about the vibe of 2022 and I was trying to just put my finger on what has been the vibe of pinball over the last year and I will say It's been a bit of an underwhelming year and I think the overall consensus and the thing I've been feeling more and more lately and I haven't really figured out a way to articulate it. I haven't really figured out a way to define it, but I'm going to do it on this episode and I'm going to do something that I don't normally do instead of just giving you like my opinion. I actually did some research and I started to gather some numbers to sort of support how I've been feeling about pinball lately. The overall consensus I'm coming to is this. I just think these games are getting too expensive and I think when you look at the numbers and you look at the data and you look at what these games used to cost and you look at what they cost now, is there a gap? And we know that pinball used to be much cheaper, but it's not just about what a game costs today. It's not about what a game cost 10 years ago. I wanted to just look at the numbers historically and say, how is this hobby changed for many of us? Because if you look at it and you've been following this hobby, some of you have been following for just a few years. Some of you might have been in pinball for 10 years, 20 years. I'm John Papadiuk, and I'll see you next week.
2:56
I'm not just about what's in these games. It's not just about the gameplay experience. It is 100% what is deflating me is the price of these machines now. It makes it really hard to justify buying them. It makes it really hard to chase every new in box game now because I just don't think pinball machines and to get the nicest version of a pinball machine should be such an expensive endeavor. What I don't want is this just to be a show about my opinions on it because there are hard facts that we're going to go into. And I think some of this stuff is going to be surprising, some of it might not be surprising because years go by pretty quickly in this hobby. I've been doing a pinball podcast now for almost seven years, okay? That was probably not the best use of time over the last seven years. But it is fun doing this show and I'm going to keep doing it. And for you new club members, welcome to the Kaneda Club. What took you so long? We've survived another attempt to get people to leave the Kaneda Club, but we're holding strong and the numbers look good, but that's not the numbers I want to talk about. Okay, here's how I'm going to do this, and this is going to be really interesting. I think this is going to be one of the best segments I've ever done on this show because I think the numbers are not going to lie. What I'm going to do is I'm going to bring up some of Stern's best titles, all right? I'm going to bring up some of their best titles, what year they came out, how much they cost brand new. Then I'm going to compare that to James Bond LE and talk about the percentage increase that James Bond is. But to also make it fair, I am going to adjust what that Stern machine would cost today if we factored in inflation and then see how much more James Bond would cost based on that. I'm also going to compare it to the other game that came out this year, Toy Story 4 Collector's Edition. And I think this is going to be one of the most eye-opening moments in the history of History of Gnade's Pinball Podcast and what I love about it, it's not about my emotions. This is just the data. Are you ready for it? Alright, so here we go. Back in 2012, Stern Pinball launched one of its most fully featured packed games of all time. And the story behind this game is that Mr Gary Stern he saw what Jack Guarnari was doing with Wizard of Oz and he turned to Steve Ritchie and he said put everything and the kitchen sink into this game and that game was ACDC and ACDC LE in 2012 cost Now that means James Bond LE at is a 53 increase in price over that ACDC Now if we adjust ACDC for inflation ACDC should be non-dem %3.任 All right. So let's get started. Let's get started. So the first game that we're going to talk about is Metallica LE. Metallica LE is a 71% increase over the price of that game. Let's adjust it for inflation. Metallica LE today would cost $9,655. That means James Bond LE is 34.6% more money than Metallica LE would be. And Toy Story collector's Edition is 55.4% more than Metallica would be. And look how much more is in Metallica than Toy Story. You see what I'm getting at people? 55% more for a game that has less in it. And that's with inflation. Let's look at Ghostbusters LE. In 2016, Ghostbusters LE was $8,795. That means James Bond LE is a 48% increase in price This week's game is a little bit different. The game is called Ghostbusters LE. If we adjust Ghostbusters for inflation, it would be $10,853 today. James Bond LE is now 19.8% more than Ghostbusters LE would cost. Toy Story Collector's Edition is 38.2% more money than Ghostbusters LE. Let's take another game, a recent game from Stern Pinball, Iron Maiden LE. I think this was voted like the best Stern Pinball machine of all time when they went head to head. This week's topic is Iron Maiden, a Stern LE. The price of Iron Maiden is $8,999 for an Iron Maiden LE. I believe it was 2018. James Bond LE is 44.5% increase in price over Iron Maiden. And look, that was 2018. So four years later, a Stern LE is 44.5% more money. Think about that for a minute. 44.5% more in four years. Are you making 44.5% more money? Let's adjust it for inflation because inflation happens. Iron Maiden would be today $10,613. James Bonnelly is 22.5% more than that. And Toy Story Collector's Edition is a whopping 41.3% more money than an Iron Maiden cost. And this is the problem. This is what I'm feeling. And I know all of you are feeling this. How many of you out there are making 41.3% more money today than you did just four years ago or even 22.5% more money? This next one is the one that just blows me away because this next one to me is the real painful one because I still don't think they're putting so much more into these modern games than they did into this game. And this game is no other than I still think Stern's greatest pinball machine of all time, Lord of the Rings Elite. Now, Lord of the Rings originally came out, I believe in 2003, and then the LE came out in 2009 and they only made 500 of them. And that game has so much in it from a toy standpoint. And back in 2009, Lord of the Rings LE was $5,800. That means James Bond LE price to price is a 124% increase in price. Now let's do the inflation. If Lord of the Rings LE came out today, it would be $7,978 and that's at a 37.6% inflation. Are you sitting down right now? Do you know how much more James Bond LE is than Lord of the Rings if it came out today? 63% more for James Bond LE. Are you sitting down if you're a JJP fan? Toy Story Collector's Edition, a game that has barely any toys in it, Is 88 percent more money than Lord of the Rings Ellie would have been if it came out today. Do you see what I'm talking about people? What has happened? These aren't gradual price increases. The prices we are getting today are not aligned with what they used to be. They are significantly more money 20 to 50 to 80 percent more money when we look at what these games used to cost It not just Kaneda going crazy and we not even seeing like slight increases in price Like look at Stern Pinball Avengers and Mandalorian LEs were Then Godzilla came out LE and it was $10,500. Then Rush was $11,100. And then James Bond is $13,000. Like you just legit, you jumped in just two years. These prices have skyrocketed. You know, and it's not just like Stern Pinball, right? Wizard movements I'm John Papadiuk, and I'll see you next week. A Twilight Zone in 1993 was $3195 you could put it in your home. If we adjust that for inflation today, guess how much a widebody Twilightzone would be today, people? Are you sitting down? $6548 is what that machine should cost today, basically the price of a Stern Pro today. Do you know how much more money James Bond LE is over Twilight zone after we adjust for inflation? James Bond LE is 98.5% more expensive than Twilight zone would be if it came out today. And it doesn't get any better for Toy Story Collector's Edition which is 129% more expensive than Twilight zone would be if it came out today. 129%! Circus Voltaire people, this is crazy. In 1998 you could get a Circus Voltaire for $2300. That means today it would be $4179. James Bond LE, 211% more. Toy Story Collectors Edition, 259% more than Circus Voltaire. Now obviously people, pinball has grown in popularity. Obviously there are more home collectors than ever before. And obviously that is what is driving up the price of these games. What is not driving up the price of these games is that a lot more is going into these games. There is no modern pinball machine that has more mechanically in it than Twilight Zone. And that is why Twilight Zone and Lord of the Rings are really important to look at. Because how come they could make these games for those prices? How come we could get that much into a pinball machine back then And now we are getting almost nothing in a game like Toy Story. How come James Bond is so expensive? Why is it so expensive? Why is there such a price increase from James Bond to Godzilla? And is this the new norm, right? Stern has not told us that this is just an inflated game because of all the licensing issues. They have not said anything. Have we ever seen Stern Pinball really lower the price over the last five, six years? No, we haven't. So I think a lot of us out there are starting to realize if this is the new normal, If these pinball machines are this much money, then I just can't get excited about spending this much money on pinball. It's too much everybody. And when you run the numbers like this and you see how much it is and then you see what they're going to pull with this like 60th anniversary game with Keith Elwin with James Bond where they're going to give it to distributors to set the price. I don't like it. Who the hell wants to wake up and spend $20,000 to $25,000 on a single level pinball machine and then have to justify it? It makes absolutely no sense to me. You have to make $50,000 before taxes to buy a single level game in 2022. And Stern doesn't want to seem greedy. They don't want to be the bad cop. They don't want to tell you the price. And I don't like the fact that they're not going to set an MSRP. Like, why wouldn't they set an MSRP? In the last fortnight, we had a lot of businesses lose their money. And during this time, we have no foundation to judge what this game is worth. And doing it this way stinks for everybody. It stinks for everybody except for the distributors who are gonna bake these people on day one and then they are gonna lose money. Go look at what happened with Elvira 40th everybody. Here is what happened. They gave that game to distributors for $15000. But it was supposed to be a secret. And the distributors got together and they all asked $25000 for the game. Now you bought one for and then what happened right They made 199 of them but there weren 199 people willing to spend 25 and then what happened right They made a hundred and ninety of them but there weren a hundred and ninety people willing to spend twenty thousand and then what happened they kept lowering the price trying to find new buyers and eventually distributors were calling around to people offering the game for 17 because they were still making off the top of the game And so that is what a distributor should make on a game like 1500 to But for those guys who bought at Puis 어디 yens Jim Stevenson, Tim Mack Elliott, mr не es ta stressy , oft beadsło ze�� куме бер вот эти ц Failariちゃん對不起әщеџ lordир bijvoorbeeld оかった о mundoкая Knapp parcel Boy vers grupos. etc. Cleanмос Welcome to Thunderstorm, A little brings you veio thank you the and that something that no one else wants to tell you practiced

  • Modern games do not contain significantly more mechanical content than Twilight Zone or Lord of the Rings, yet are priced 40-260% higher

    medium confidence · John Papadiuk, opinion on mechanical value vs. price

  • Manufacturers have baked secondary market speculation and flipping prices into the MSRP of new games

    medium confidence · John Papadiuk, theory of pricing strategy

    • @ ~sentiment analysis

  • “Stern has not told us that this is just an inflated game because of all the licensing issues. They have not said anything.”

    John Papadiuk @ ~manufacturer accountability section — Criticizes lack of transparency from Stern about price justification

    • Lord of the Rings (LE)
    game
    Ghostbusters (LE)game
    Twilight Zonegame
    Cirqus Voltairegame
    Rush (Premium/LE)game
    Elvira 40th Anniversarygame
    Avengers: Infinity Quest (Premium/LE)game
    The Mandalorian (Premium/LE)game
    Brenda Papadiukperson
    Gary Sternperson
    Steve Ritchieperson
    [name withheld pending review]person
    Keith Elwinperson
    [name withheld pending review]organization

    high · Papadiuk: 'There is no modern pinball machine that has more mechanically in it than Twilight Zone. How come they could make these games for those prices back then and now we are getting almost nothing in a game like Toy Story.'

  • ?

    collector_signal: Secondary market values are declining due to inflated MSRP; collectors cannot recoup investment when reselling due to artificially high initial pricing

    medium · Papadiuk: 'And then when we go to sell the machine we can't get as much out of it... Everything else what's going to happen? They're going to go south really fast.'

  • $

    market_signal: Premium pinball games now require $50,000+ annual pre-tax income to justify purchase; creates barrier to collector and operator expansion

    high · Papadiuk: 'You have to make $50,000 before taxes to buy a single level game in 2022' and 'Toy Story collector's Edition tax and shipping, you're at like sixteen thousand five hundred dollars out the door.'

  • $

    market_signal: Stern LE prices have escalated rapidly: Godzilla $10,500 → Rush $11,100 → James Bond $13,000 in 2-3 year period

    high · Papadiuk: 'Godzilla came out LE and it was $10,500. Then Rush was $11,100. And then James Bond is $13,000. Like you just legit, you jumped in just two years.'

  • ?

    community_signal: Community-wide recognition that pricing is unsustainable and manufactures are exploiting market; 'everybody feels this'

    high · Papadiuk: 'I can see Iceman right now down in Texas standing up and giving Kaneda a standing ovation because everybody feels this. Everybody feels this. These games are not worth it.'

  • $

    market_signal: Historical price data shows modern games cost 40-260% more than inflation-adjusted equivalents from 1993-2013 period, indicating systemic overpricing beyond cost-of-living increases

    high · Papadiuk's multi-game inflation adjustments: Twilight Zone should be $6,548 vs James Bond $13,000 (98.5% more); Circus Voltaire should be $4,179 vs Toy Story $10,795 (259% more)

  • $

    market_signal: Only Godzilla LE is identified as anomaly where pricing is justified by market demand and secondary value retention; all other recent releases overpriced relative to value

    medium · Papadiuk: 'Yes and every once in a while there's going to be an anomaly game like Godzilla that's worth it but that's going to be few and far between. Everything else what's going to happen? They're going to go south really fast.'

  • $

    market_signal: Papadiuk predicts market softening and correction if current pricing trajectory continues; unsustainable business model for distributors and collectors

    medium · Papadiuk: 'These games are not worth it and the market is gonna get soft real fast if this thing keeps going in this direction. There's only one way out of it. Hit the breaks a little bit.'

    • 16:54
    I'm a fan. Even then, why would I want to spend like 13, 14, $15,000 when just a few years ago, these things were like 8,000 or 7,500. And even now, as we run the numbers, we're looking at the fact that these games are like 20 to 50% over what they should be, right? Even if we put in the inflation, these games are 20 to 50% more money than they really should be. And what's happened is this, and we all know what's happened. These manufacturers have baked into the price. The scalping and flipping prices of the game. They saw what we were doing and I was one of them and they saw people buying low and selling high. And they decided they wanted more of that pie for themselves. They wanted the cheddar to come through the door. But how can anyone in this community feel good about this now? Because nobody's winning. Who's winning right now except for the manufacturers? And we're customers who are not invested in these companies. Why would you want to see these companies inflate the price of these games to test us to see I'm going to be pissed at me for saying this, but I don't think it benefits anybody. I don't even think the distributors want the prices to be higher because as they get higher, they're going to get less and less people through the door. And that's just where it's at. That is my summary of 2022 and pinball pricing is it's all overpriced and we all know it And we all have been feeling it and the vibes are not there like the good vibes. A new game comes out and we're like, oh, like can't erase the fact of how much they cost. And you know, what's crazy is this is not even including like tax and it's not including shipping. And now all of a sudden, think about it. How much is it if you buy a Toy Story collector's Edition tax and shipping, you're at like sixteen thousand five hundred dollars out the door for that game. A game with no toys for sixteen five. James Bond is 14-5 for a Stern machine that they are going to make a thousand of them. They're not even close to being rare. I can see Iceman right now down in Texas standing up and giving Kaneda a standing ovation because everybody feels this. Everybody feels this. These games are not worth it and the market is gonna get soft real fast if this thing keeps going in this direction. There's only one way out of it. Hit the breaks a little bit. Start to look at the numbers, start to analyze what these companies are doing to us and they are not giving us the value, they're not and the numbers don't lie. They are absolutely baking in the flipping price into the price of the game and there is no value there for us because then when we go to sell the machine we can't get as much out of it. And yes and every once in a while there's going to be an anomaly game like Godzilla that's worth it but that's going to be few and far between. Everything else what's going to happen? They're going to go south really fast. Everybody thank you for being a member of the Kaneda Club. I'm not always this energetic. I think I just had too many coffees this morning but I'm glad to have all you here. We're going to be back with more shows this week. Look, even when there's no news, Kaneda can make something interesting happen on his podcast. We'll talk to you soon. Katy Perry, take us out.