Ep 58: Unzipped

TL;DR

Final Round #58: Toy Story 4 reception, market corrections, debut games, and upcoming tournaments.

Summary

Key Claims

• 90% of Toy Story 4 Collector's Editions were sold to distributors, not direct customers

  medium confidence · Martin citing what he believes is Jack's (presumed Jersey Jack representative) statement from an official report

• Wizard of Woz nearly sank Jersey Jack Pinball due to ambitious scope and light board issues in early production batches

  medium confidence · Geoff, discussing company financial strain and the need for external support to complete The Hobbit

• Pirates of the Caribbean would sell 500+ units if Jersey Jack re-ran production

  low confidence · Martin's speculation based on observed demand

• Stern is likely to release two more games in the next 3-4 months

  low confidence · Geoff speculating on production timeline; no official confirmation

• Toy Story 4 is feature-rich with sufficient value for its price despite initial criticism

  high confidence · Martin, now working for Haggis Pinball, providing detailed analysis after examining the game's component list

• Secondary market pricing in Australia, US, Canada, and Europe is rising due to limited new game supply

  high confidence · Both hosts observing this trend across multiple regions

Notable Quotes

• “Coding is never done. Yeah, I totally get that now. Absolutely.”

  Geoff Hewitt @ ~05:30 — Reflects the iterative nature of pinball code development at Haggis; implies ongoing work on Fathom Revisited

• “I started looking at what was actually in the game and what is value for money. And you know what? It's actually there. This game has got a lot of stuff packed into it.”

  Martin @ ~15:00 — Martin defends Toy Story 4's pricing despite negative community reception, citing hidden value

• “90% something like that had been sold to distributors... if they'd said 100% was sold direct to customers, well, then you know that 100% of them are sold. What we don't know now is whether all those distributors have got customers.”

  Martin @ ~18:45 — Introduces uncertainty about whether TS4 CE inventory is actually sold-through or sitting at distributor level

• “Is Woz the standard? Because there are companies that are going to be trying to make new pinball machines... It's got to be Woz.”

  Geoff / Martin (affirming) @ ~58:00 — Establishes Wizard of Woz as the benchmark debut game for new manufacturers

• “It nearly sunk the company, right? So it was very ambitious for a first game. And I think the reason why you probably haven't seen anything as revolutionary as was from any new pinball companies because they probably looked at that case study and said, don't do that.”

  Geoff @ ~59:30 — Explains why newer manufacturers adopt less ambitious debut titles—Woz created cautionary precedent

• “I count five times in the last two months where I've gone about my business and at the end of the day I went, oh, my fly's been undone for the whole day.”

  Geoff @ ~46:00 — Comedic tangent; humanizes the hosts and breaks up heavy industry discussion

• “We actively don't pursue next titles. We don't really want to know. We don't necessarily speculate. But if it comes to us, it comes to us.”

  Martin @ ~35:00 — Establishes podcast editorial policy on rumors and unreleased information; contrasts with occasional speculation

Entities

Signals

• ?

  product_concern: Toy Story 4 received initial negative reaction to high pricing ($18k-$25k AUD) despite Martin's post-analysis revealing feature-rich build quality. Suggests community pricing expectations diverging from manufacturer cost justification.

  high · Martin: 'overly negative was the response... people were questioning the bill of materials... price is quite high'; then re-assessment: 'it's actually there... lot of stuff packed into it'

• $

  market_signal: 90% of Toy Story 4 Collector's Editions sold to distributors rather than direct to customers, creating uncertainty about actual sell-through and potential excess distributor inventory.

  medium · Martin: '90% something like that had been sold to distributors... What we don't know now is whether all those distributors have got customers for all those machines'

• $

  market_signal: Secondary market pricing rising across Australia, US, Canada, and Europe due to limited new game supply. This indicates strong demand for used inventory as new production lags.

  high · Both hosts: 'second-hand market... getting higher and higher... It's crazy... It's ridiculous everywhere... Australia, Canada, United States... Europe'

• ?

  supply_chain_signal: Both hosts agree new game production remains far from normal. Supply constraints persist despite some recovery signals in wider economy.

  high · Martin: 'I just still think we are far away from production being normal'; Geoff: 'still a bit of a challenge'

• ?

  product_strategy: Gary (Stern president) indicated three Cornerstone games may not be possible; speculation that Stern will release boutique title(s) with flexible pricing model similar to Jersey Jack's approach.