Episode 725: "Pinball Is Not Rationale"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·20m 38s·analyzed·Sep 27, 2022

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.029

TL;DR

Kaneda defends pinball price inflation while previewing American Pinball's upcoming Galactic Arcade Tank Force.

Summary

Kaneda discusses emotional decision-making in pinball collecting, arguing that community members stress too much about rising prices when pinball remains more accessible than many luxury hobbies. He analyzes James Bond 60th Anniversary pricing ($13k-$20k) as market-driven and rational despite initial resistance, shares leaked details about American Pinball's upcoming Galactic Arcade Tank Force (Dennis Nordman design, 1950s sci-fi theme, December production target), and advises American Pinball to limit production runs to 1,000 units to create scarcity and differentiation.

Key Claims

James Bond Elite at $13,000 sold out immediately with no distributor stock available
high confidence · Kaneda citing distributor feedback on the podcast
James Bond 60th Anniversary edition may not go on production line until November
medium confidence · Kaneda reporting rumors from community discussions
Stern's recent game releases typically ship on the same day as reveal, but James Bond is experiencing a weeks-long gap
high confidence · Kaneda comparing current pattern to historical Stern practice
Galactic Arcade Tank Force features 1950s sci-fi theme, Dennis Nordman ramps, and was shown to attendees at a tailgating party
medium confidence · Kaneda reporting secondhand from The Super Awesome Pinball Show tailgating party attendees
American Pinball has redesigned its cabinet and logo for the new game
medium confidence · Kaneda reporting from tailgating party attendees; Christopher Franchi redesigned logo and cabinets
Pinball demand is greater than ever despite rising prices, indicating the market has not hit a ceiling
high confidence · Kaneda's assessment based on distributor feedback and market observations
Most pinball collectors don't play their machines very much, so used machines remain essentially new
medium confidence · Kaneda stating this as community knowledge and collector behavior pattern
Keith Elwin 60th Anniversary James Bond will be limited to 500 units
high confidence · Kaneda discussing the ultra-premium tier pricing and production numbers

Notable Quotes

“Everything about pinball is just an emotional decision. None of what we're doing here, none of it, none of it is rational.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Core thesis of the episode—defending emotional/irrational collecting behavior while acknowledging it
“Why would you follow pinball in a way that makes you upset?”
Kaneda @ early-mid episode — Challenges Pinside community members to reassess their relationship with pinball discourse
“The market has spoken everybody. The market has spoken and the demand for James Bond at $13,000 is sky high.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Framing price resistance as irrelevant given demonstrated market demand
“If you like Attack from Mars on crack you gonna love this game”
Kaneda (reporting community feedback on Galactic Arcade Tank Force) @ late-episode — Describes gameplay intensity/complexity of the unreleased American Pinball title
“I would say, look, we're going to make a thousand Galactic Arcade Tank Force games and then move on to another game. Like just do that.”
Kaneda @ late-episode — Strategic business advice to American Pinball on production scarcity and differentiation
“None of them are super rare, right? All the rarity is just arbitrary with like the plaques”
Kaneda @ late-episode — Critiques artificial scarcity tactics in current limited edition strategies

Entities

KanedapersonMike ManchinpersonGary Sternperson Christopher Franchiperson Dennis Nordmanperson Keith Elwinperson Sean Conneryperson

Signals

$
market_signal: James Bond 60th Anniversary pricing ranges from $9,700 (Premium) to $20,000 (Keith Elwin limited to 500 units), representing significant year-over-year increases. Kaneda notes this as new baseline rather than temporary spike.
high · James Bond Elite at $13,000 sold out immediately; Kaneda predicts prices will stabilize at current levels
?
product_launch: James Bond 60th Anniversary may not enter production until November despite weeks-long pre-release reveal period, breaking Stern's typical same-day-ship pattern.
medium · Kaneda reporting 'they might not even go on the line until November' and comparing to Stern's recent practice of shipping on reveal day
?
machine_intel: Galactic Arcade Tank Force previewed at tailgating event with 1950s sci-fi theme, Dennis Nordman ramps, and populated playfield images; described as 'Attack from Mars on crack'
medium · Christopher Franchi showed speaker panel artwork and playfield images to attendees; Kaneda heard secondhand praise for design
?
community_signal: Community fracturing between price-acceptance and price-resistance camps; Pinside showing 'depressing' sentiment about costs while distributors report immediate sellouts.
high · Kaneda observing 'divided' community on Pinside with people saying 'horrible' things about pricing; contrasts with distributor reports of instant sellouts
?
business_signal: American Pinball rebrand and redesign (logo, cabinet aesthetics) signals repositioning away from perceived low-quality image; Kaneda sees opportunity to capture price-fatigued buyers if execution succeeds.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.062

0:00

Welcome everybody to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, the world's number one feel good pinball podcaster. First and foremost, thank you for all of the birthday wishes this weekend. It was awesome. I have the best fans in all of pinball. Don't listen to what anyone else says. You guys and guys, holoyou.com, roloyoumpacie, We called over to him and he was like out doing gardening work. He wasn't even watching the Facebook live, but we did it fair and square. Everybody's name went into the box and my beautiful little boy Killian picked the winning names out and we did it really fun. We picked seven names out and they became the seven finalists and then we picked the winner. So congratulations, Mike, you're going to get the right to buy a James Bond LE for like 14 plus thousand dollars. Well, it's $13,000. This week's episode of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast is sponsored by Pintest. Thanks to Mike for giving us a call to do the raffle. I really appreciate you giving us an allocation of an LE to do the raffle. So here are my thoughts about what's going on in pinball right now. I was thinking like what do I want to talk about on this episode of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast because we're all still waiting for James Bond gameplay. We're waiting to see the 60th Anniversary game. How much is it really going to cost us? And I've just been sort of perusing Pinside. I always like to sort of capture what's going on in the community. What's the vibe? How are people thinking about pinball right now? And it's pretty divided. Like there are people out there that think the prices are crazy and that no one's going to buy at these prices. And then I'm hearing from distributors, James Bond, Ellie at $13,000 sold out like right away that there are none to be had, that you cannot call around and find a single distributor to sell you a game for 13,000. Now, some will raise I'm John Papadiuk, and I'll see you next week.

2:49

of the distributor and it's hard to blame them for doing this because now in pinball even though the prices are going up and up and up the demand is greater than it's ever been and so have we hit a ceiling the answer is we have not now but here's the thing it's not about how rich you are and how many games you can afford and how much room you have and your I'm here with the host, the host of the show, Mike Manchin. The whole point is this. I think each and every one of us are in this hobby to just enjoy it. And our enjoyment level has its limits. And I want to talk about that on this episode of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast because I think some of us and some of you out there, you overthink this stuff. You get too emotionally wrapped up in the moment. So I'm like looking at pin side. I'm seeing a lot of people like saying a lot of depressing things about the price of the The game about how horrible they think it is that Stern's doing this 60th anniversary edition, this and that and everything that could be wrong or everything that's upsetting you. And I'm just thinking to myself, here we are, most of us, we're all still alive on planet Earth. If we're reading Pinside, we're all into this niche community in which 99.9% of people aren't into it. And so why would you follow pinball in a way that makes you upset? I know Pinside is a subculture within pinball because I still think a lot of people who buy these machines, they don't know what Pinsight is, they don't know what Kaneda's Pinball Podcast is, they don't listen to pinball media, they simply walk into a distributor's showroom and they buy a game. Or they might be on Facebook and they see an ad for a pinball machine and they're like, hey honey, wouldn't it be fun if we put Toy Story 4 in the basement? And they have no idea. They have no idea that this is not what it's supposed to cost. And for them it just a normal thing All right I going to spend on a pinball machine These people weren around when Stern LEs were like 6 They don even care what an LE is They don even really care who the designers are They don even know who these coders are For most people who buy these machines it just a pinball machine And we can lose track of that We always have to remind ourselves these are entertainment devices meant to entertain us and give us joy It not meant to stress us out I think we always have to remind ourselves No matter what new game comes out right No matter what a company wants to charge for a pinball machine no matter what happens in the pinball world you have the power You have the power to decide whether or not you want to buy the game or not You have the power to decide whether or not you want to get overly invested in a thread about it that making everybody stressed out You have the power to say I just wait See What I look at these prices like $13,000 for 1,000 LEs and then $9,700 for the premium and then $500 of a single level game for like who knows what like $20,000 is Keith Elwin machine. I just every time I look at the 60th anniversary edition, I don't see a $20,000 pin. I don't see a $15,000 pin. I don't see a $10,000 pin. And for those of you out there who are like well it's going to go for a lot a lot of money, that's fine. You know guess what? That conducted Porco Anything You Want,

6:07

personal Also can't have one of these Keith Elwin versions of James Bond. It was a really interesting marketing move that Stern did this. I don't think we've really ever seen this done before. And the whole thing has been a very strange reveal, right? Because they don't have the games on the line right now. They don't have games to show us right now. And I don't even know if the game is done yet. And so what we're seeing now is they were contractually obligated to get these games out to coincide with the James Bond anniversary. But we haven't really seen this from Stern in a very long time. All of Stern's most recent releases over the last couple years, the game has been shown when the game is already shipping basically. On the day of reveal, pros are heading out to operator locations, right? They usually stream like a premium with Jack Danger in just like a few days. Now we're seeing this game for weeks and we're hearing that they might not even go on the line until November. And so it's a long wait. This is going to be a really interesting gap because most of us out there, we're not used to this. We're not used to distributors asking us to pay for a game we're not going to get for like a few months from Stern. Stern is usually made it so that the LE buyers have their machines within two months. Not sure that's going to be the case. But there's just so much like back and forth discussion around these games. And what we don't know is how do the games shoot? We don't know if the games are going to be that We've been looking at the mechs, we've been looking at the artwork, but pinball is a kinetic experience. It's a game in motion. It's a game in which hardware and software really need to talk to each other in the right way to make it special. And I think this game, look, I do think this game is going to be a really cool game. I do. I think when we see the mechanisms like in those trailer videos, the reason why they're underrated is because they're not really I'm going to be a lot more exciting, but right now, right, right now on this Monday morning, there's just something about this James Bond reveal that has me feeling just a little bit like all I want to tell each and every one of you is just be patient. We really need to see a lot more before we emotionally make any of these declarative statements. But there is one statement that I do agree with that these games are getting much too expensive for what you're getting. And I think everybody would most likely agree with that. You know, why would we want these things to be more money? Why? Why would anyone root for these things to be more money? We're not investors in Stern Pinball. I'm not going to see a cut of this if these games keep going up and up in price. But the market is spoken everybody. The market is spoken and the demand for James Bond at $13,000 is sky high. I use this analogy on one of my Facebook Lives. I said look, I do okay for myself in my career and I can buy the most expensive pinball machine in the world. Like I could easily buy the most expensive pinball machine in the world and so could you for the most part, right? Can I buy the most expensive watch in the world? I can Can I buy the most expensive car Nope The most expensive house Nope The most expensive artwork Nope The most expensive bottle of wine Nope The most expensive sneakers Well maybe sneakers but I wouldn want to I mean who want to drop like a hundred thousand dollars on sneakers But my point is this As a niche hobby while pinball is a lot more expensive than it used to be it still so much more accessible and approachable than so many other hobbies that people are into then so many other collector spaces people are into Can I buy the most expensive video game Nope The most expensive video game sold for like million you know a sealed Super Mario Brothers or something like that And that my point is while Well, it was nice all those years we were buying these stern machines for what now seem like a wholesale price, we are never going back. And I don't think the world economy is going to change anything. I think for people who buy pinball machines, nothing that happens out in the real world is affecting the money that they use for the most part to buy these machines. And so this is it. This is just the new norm. Like a year from now we will probably be like oh you remember the good old days when Stern LEs were $13,000? But I don't lose sleep over it. I wouldn't run to Pinside and be so upset about it because I would just decide for myself personally now that everything is this much money the only way I would ever buy a machine when it first comes out is if I absolutely loved it and needed to have it now and it was a theme in which I absolutely needed the LE of it. Because why else would you buy one right now? The other versions of the games will go down in price over time and we all know the dirty little secret about collecting pinball machines. It's that most pinball collectors don't even play their games very much. So when you buy it used, it will ostensibly still be a brand new pinball machine and you'll save yourself a bunch of money. The other thing is this. There are so many games coming out. This isn't the end. This isn't the last machine that you got to go all in on. If you like the 1960s James Bond franchise, by all means, I think you're going to want this game. It's not a dream theme for me. I mean, I was born in 1976. So like James Bond, Sean Connery isn't really my jam. My mom loves Sean Connery and so does my dad. But this isn't a dream theme for me. Now, if they came out with like Fifth Element or they came out with Top Gun or they came out with G1 Transformers, I'm a big fan of the movie or Big Trouble in Little China or Akira. Yes, then I would be all in on whatever Stern would want for that Ellie. Well, anything south of maybe, I don't know, 20 grand. And this is why people, everything about pinball is just an emotional decision. None of what we're doing here, none of it, none of it is rational. In no rational way can you ever really justify that any of us need stuff like this. You don't need it. And for most of you out there who already have a lot of really great pinball machines, What is one of the most popular game market田 Portland Commsbokki Pinball guideline that's good Pen Med perhaps flat 내� част examining Yes, directory difference. Shoot thank you Dwخت cueery soon, and if you're instructional Jeff 창 돌كون, Surv Legislate. I think a lot of us have more balanced lives and we don't over invest in every new thing that happens in pinball. Alright, so speaking of new things that have happened in pinball, there's not too much news. But at the tailgating party, the coin taker tailgating party with the super awesome pinball show, I am hearing that Christopher Franchi showed some people, I think it was the speaker panel artwork on the new game coming out from AP. I believe it is going to be called Galactic Tank Force. And I hearing the artwork is like this 1950s sort of throwback fun campy sort of sci meets pinball awesomeness meets Dennis Norman ramps meets tanks and here what I heard I heard the artwork is absolutely incredible I heard what people saw like blew them away I also heard that some people were shown some populated playfield images and I hearing it got some crazy Dennis Norman ramps some really fun mechs And the game itself is absolutely gorgeous If you like Attack for Mars on crack you gonna love this game is what I hearing I also hearing that Christopher Franchi redesign the American Pinball logo which is good The original was designed by John Papadiuk, so it's a good thing they redesigned it. And best news, I heard they now redesign the cabinets. So we're no longer gonna get those like ugly squirrely like backbox cabinets. I think they're going to put this into a much more attractive looking package. The other part I heard was that the game was most likely going to be on the line in December. So does that mean we will see it at Pinball Expo at the end of October? Or does it mean it's a little bit delayed? Obviously there's still delays with every single major pinball company. So I don't know. I don't even know if they've built all the Legends of Valhalla's. So is this game ready for the line or do they need to finish making those games first? I'm excited to see this game You know, it's gonna take a lot to find buyers when you're making an original IP game But Dennis Norman is an amazing designer Christopher Franchi is an amazing artist and could this be the American pinball game? We've been waiting for could this be that beautiful game that shootslikebutter I'm really happy that this game is going to mix things up a little bit. American Pinball does build a good game, so the quality is there. So I think a lot of people, especially with the sticker shock happening over at Stern and I'm the sticker shock over at JJP. I think a lot of people are starting to get a little bit frozen in this hobby and they're going to wait for something unique. Here's where I think American Pinball, I'm going to give David Fix the best advice ever. Here's where I think American Pinball can win. I do think they need to limit the number of games they're going to make and I think they should just make a thousand and that's it and make these really awesome quirky and different and unique games that are just unique. Right, because every single game that JJP makes and Stern makes, they're going to make thousands of them, like thousands of them. Like none of them are super rare, right? All the rarity is just arbitrary with like the plaques other than the, you know, the Elwin one, which is 500. We'll see where that one goes. But I would say, look, we're going to make a thousand galactic tank force games and then move on to another game. Like just do that. And I think if they do that and they price it right, I do think they can find buyers for this game. I don't think it's going to be dead on arrival. I really don't. This isn't home pin. Dennis Nordman knows how to make great games. Christopher Franchi knows how to make a work of art. And I think if you put those two things together, I do think now that this is going to be the game that completely erases what American pinball has done in the past. And if they were smart, stop making Houdini's Oktoberfest. Stop looking towards the past. Give us new stuff. All right, everybody. So look, that's Plans and