Desperate Times for Stern Pinball...

Cary Hardy·video·12m 43s·analyzed·Aug 27, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.024

TL;DR

Cary Hardy argues Stern's Costco expansion and rental program signal market desperation amid weak home edition demand.

Summary

Cary Hardy criticizes Stern Pinball's Costco home edition strategy and new office rental program as signs of market desperation, arguing that distributor inventory glut and weak consumer demand are forcing the company to seek alternative sales channels. He contends that the $4,999 price point is a barrier to casual consumers and that existing arcade infrastructure already serves as a sufficient gateway for new players, while also questioning the veracity of Stern's productivity claims in their rental marketing.

Key Claims

Stern is launching Jurassic Park Home Edition Plus through select Costco stores with Insider Connected included
high confidence · Stern marketing announcement via Naps Arcade; Cary Hardy citing Jason's article
Distributors are no longer accepting home editions because there is insufficient demand in the pinball hobby market
medium confidence · Cary Hardy's interpretation of market conditions; cites distributor inventory buildup as evidence
Distributors are sitting on excessive new-in-box inventory with capital tied up waiting for buyers
medium confidence · Cary Hardy's analysis of distributor financial strain; multiple references to inventory glut
Stern controls approximately 70% or more of distributor income and uses leverage to force purchasing decisions
low confidence · Cary Hardy's claim based on unnamed 'sources from the past'; characterized as industry speculation
Stern's productivity claim of 20% increase is misleading because it conflates general 'games' with pinball specifically
medium confidence · Cary Hardy's close reading of Stern's rental program marketing language and independent research

Notable Quotes

“Desperation is a very nasty cologne. Right now, Stern, you reek of it.”
Cary Hardy@ 0:33 — Core thesis statement establishing the video's critical stance toward Stern's strategic pivots
“There a lack of demand for this type of game. Distros are no longer accepting home editions because no one wants them.”
Cary Hardy@ 3:04 — Key claim about market demand collapse for home editions; explains rationale for Costco pivot
“They're going to look down and see that price tag of $4,999 and they're immediately going to go 'Oh hell no'”
Cary Hardy@ 2:51 — Articulates the consumer price barrier that undermines Costco strategy's effectiveness
“Stern basically owns a majority of the pinball market and they know that their distros make their bread and butter off of their product it's 70 of their sales if not more”
Cary Hardy@ 8:42 — Allegation of Stern's market dominance and distributor dependency; used to explain potential strong-arm tactics
“If Stern's next cornerstone title to be announced this week isn't a big hit then I think we are going to see a lot more signs of desperation on their end.”
Cary Hardy@ 10:56 — Prediction that upcoming cornerstone release will be a market test; suggests economic headwinds are broader than strategy alone
“My wife came in here earlier and she wanted to know what I was about to do... and I mentioned the rental program and she's like 'oh sounds a little desperate to me'”
Cary Hardy — Anecdotal validation of desperation narrative from non-industry perspective; suggests messaging resonates beyond enthusiast circles

Entities

Stern PinballcompanyCostcocompany Cary HardypersonNaps ArcadeorganizationJack Dangerperson Jurassic Parkgame Insider Connectedproduct

Signals

?
business_signal: Stern controls ~70% of distributor income and allegedly uses this leverage to enforce purchasing commitments despite market weakness
low · Cary Hardy's claim based on unnamed 'sources from the past'; speculation about 'strong arm effect'
?
business_signal: Stern launching Jurassic Park Home Edition Plus through Costco as alternative distribution channel, coupled with office rental program launch
high · Official announcement via Naps Arcade; Stern marketing materials for rental program quoted directly
?
event_signal: Six to seven games expected to be announced by end of year from multiple manufacturers, intensifying competition for limited consumer spending
medium · Cary Hardy's prediction: 'it's going to be entertaining to say the least to watch these manufacturers figure out how they're going to get our attention but even more our money'
$
market_signal: Distributor inventory glut and reduced home edition demand causing distributors to lower purchase commitments from manufacturers
medium · Cary Hardy's analysis: 'Distros are sitting on so much inventory right now... they have to tell stern pinball that i can't take any right now or i'm only going to take a couple'
$
market_signal: Stern's office rental program marketing using potentially misleading productivity claims ('plays games' vs 'plays pinball')
medium · Cary Hardy's detailed analysis of Stern's 20% productivity claim wording; independent research on productivity study sources

Topics

Home edition sales strategy and Costco partnershipprimaryDistributor financial strain and inventory glutprimaryOffice rental program and corporate marketing claimsprimaryPinball market demand collapse and economic headwindsprimaryStern's market dominance and distributor relationshipssecondaryUpcoming cornerstone game release as market indicatorsecondaryPrice as consumer barrier to home edition adoptionsecondaryArcade industry as gateway to pinball hobbymentioned

Sentiment

negative(0.15)— Cary Hardy is highly critical of Stern's strategic moves, characterizing them as desperate measures. While he acknowledges Stern's business rationale and maintains measured tone throughout, the cumulative evidence and framing (desperation cologne, wife's agreement, distributor horror stories) establishes strong negative sentiment toward Stern's decision-making and market health.

Transcript

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You have every right to go nuts. I'm not going nuts. Do John Youssi me going nuts? No, but you know what I mean. Hey, hey, hey. I'm fine. Really? Absolutely. I'm fine. Totally fine. I don't know why it's coming out all loud and squeaky, because really, I'm fine. At first, I was like, ah! You know, desperation is a very nasty cologne. Right now, Stern, you reek of it. Now in 4K. So we get this on Naps Arcade today. Let me bring this up. Stern is going to be putting a new home edition of Jurassic Park into select Costco stores. They're calling it their Home Edition Plus or Home Plus Edition. Doesn't matter. But the reason why the plus is there is because they're including the insider connected into these machines. and as of right now they're not going to be developing kits to put on the home editions that have already been built according to uh jason's article here at least stern marketing team you've reached out to me before and i'm guessing you're gonna have to reach out to me again once again hold my hand walk me through this but i would really like to see the analytics behind this decision And look, I get it. Stern is trying to expand their customer base. They are trying to find these different avenues to reach out to people that they normally can't reach. And it's not their first time to sell games through Costco either. They've sold games, for instance, Iron Man Classic Edition. That was going through Costco back in 2010. So you have that. But in this economy, I don't see the typical Costco shopper walking around and dropping that cash on a device for your home that you honestly do not need. Now, obviously, it's going to draw attention at Costco. You're going to have all kinds of people walk by and see a pinball machine and go, wow, this is something we can put into our home. And they're going to get a little excited. Like, you know, I remember the days back whenever I used to play these or see them at the arcades. And so these people are going to walk up And then they're going to look down And see that price tag Of $4,999 And they're immediately Going to go Oh hell no Now if you're asking Why is Stern selling through Costco It because There a lack of demand for this type of game Distros are no longer accepting home editions because no one wants them That's currently in the pinball hobby at least. So that means Stern can sell these for a cheaper price to Costco. And chances are Costco probably signed some sort of contract which gave them the ability to purchase a surplus of these games. and that surplus is going to feed the machine also known as stern's manufacturing line for the next month or two and i can only assume that they're doing this costco venture again because i'm that maybe they want this to be like a gateway type of thing like a gateway drug to get those people to spend the five grand now for a home edition and then get really into it get what we call the pinball bug and then start looking at buying more in other machines and the thing is we already have a gateway drug we already have the gateway to get people the pinball bug and they're called arcades people go in there spend 10 20 bucks or whatever and have some drinks and get to experience these games already and the chances are the people that get to go to these arcades and pay them a visit 10 or 20 bucks and i know a lot of you have heard this while you're at the arcades you hear certain people go wow a pinball machine they still make these i know you've heard it comment below if you have i know i've heard it plenty of times and so the curious people will go you know what i'd like to have one of these in my home so they'll look into it and then they'll see in the end that these games are priced very high and that it's an immediate turnoff for a majority of the end users now and if them selling through costco wasn't a sign of desperation stick with me my story gets better so we also have this that has surfaced level up your office with stern pinballs level up your office rental program. Deliver the ultimate gaming experience to your team or customers. Hang on, guys. It doesn't get any better. Make your office culture more fun. Pinball games help people bond, which can increase time in the office, morale, and retention. That's anecdotal. Increase productivity. Studies show that tasks productivity increases 20% when teams play games together. oh they are riding the fine line of lying to you on this one i had to do a little bit digging and research and all these different types of like you know documentations and test studies and everything this is a fine line because they use the word play games so that puts them in the safe spot if they would have said playing pinball together then that would have been a blatant lie And the thing is, when they say plays games, it's actually leaning more towards office and work related games, not playing pinball. A competition with Stern Insider Connected. Players can digitally blah blah blah blah blah blah. Prices starting as low as $4.99 a month. Turnkey solution includes game, maintenance, setup, and delivery. Corporate at sternpinball.com So there you go. My wife came in here earlier and she wanted to know what I was about to do because I was getting ready to record and so I told her that hey Stern Pinball is about to start selling a home edition of Jurassic Park for about five grand at Costco and she didn't really say much and then I mentioned the rental program and she's like oh sounds a little desperate to me so that already lets me know that okay I'm not the only one that looks at this and goes you're reaching a little bit now now I mentioned this in my last omnibus video guys and if you haven't seen that then by all means look back on my history and watch that one if you so wish to but I go over talking about the pinball market And right now, all companies, all distros are a little nervous about what they're seeing. It's down across the board. New inboxes are not selling like they used to a couple of years ago. People are basically very hesitant on spending this kind of money on a device for their home that they don't need. Distros are sitting on so much inventory right now. all of that capital in boxes sitting waiting for a potential buyer to come around all that money is just tied up and just waiting being a distro would suck right now because stern would call their distros and they will here in the next couple of days and be like hey how many of these x-men do you want now and that's when the distro is going to look around their warehouse or their game room floor and see all these new in box games that are sitting and they have to tell the stern pinball that i can't take any right now or i'm only going to take a couple they're going to reduce the amount that they're going to buy because that's probably all they can afford at this current point in time now and if my sources from the past are true then chances are stern will use their strong arm effect on these distros because if there's anything that stern knows they are pinball they basically own a majority of the pinball market and they know that their distros make their bread and butter off of their product it's 70 of their sales if not more stern knows this and uses it against them so starting at any point in time can drop a distro at any point in time for any reason essentially killing the distro's income so imagine being a distro having all this money tied up getting the phone call from the big guys upstairs all right here's x-men guys how many do you want and chances are if you don take as many as they like they going to get a little upset I mean distros are the ones that are hurting right now Not so much Stern They already made their money through their distributors Stern's already got their money. They're fine. But the distros have to hopefully find an end user to buy what they've already bought. oh man the horror stories that I've heard from people in this industry and and that's what bothers me about some of you out there that just want to like get behind I'll just say certain companies and praise them and act like they're just so great and that they cherish us people out there that love their product but if you only knew man you would understand why my uh cash stern logo has the devil horns on it it's going to be a very interesting fourth quarter for pinball guys we've got six maybe seven games being announced by the end of the year by multiple different manufacturers and the pinball pie is only so big so to watch these manufacturers figure out how they're going to get our attention but even more our money is going to be entertaining to say the least i want to say that if stern's next cornerstone title to be announced this week isn't a big hit then i think we are going to see a lot more signs of desperation on their end. And what sucks is that even if Jack Danger creates an amazing game, we're still in the economy right now where a lot of people are not willing to drop that kind of cash right now. So what's your thoughts on all of this? Let me know in the comments section down below. And until next time, peace out. So I just realized that this whole time my arcade has been not really doing any arcade type of stuff. So that's that sucks. I'll have to work on that. And just to double down more on this whole thing I'm kind of curious about where things are going to go with Stern's Pinball Machines being at Costco. If anything guys keep tabs on the games there. If they don't sell, that price is going to come down. There's a reason why I bought this thing right here when I did. Because the price just kept going down and down because they weren't selling. I got this whole thing for like $200 at Sam's Club. But they weren't selling, so they eventually just had to move that inventory out. So they dropped that price, I'd say by 50%. And that's when I snagged it up. I just needed the cabinet. Anyways, why the hell is this thing not working? Thank you.