Episode 877: "Does Stern Think We're Stupid?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·22m 42s·analyzed·Nov 20, 2023

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.029

TL;DR

Kaneda attacks Stern's exploitative pricing model and warns the hobby is unsustainable if treating smart customers like fools.

Summary

Kaneda criticizes Stern Pinball pricing strategy and perceived disrespect toward the community, arguing that aggressive pricing of limited editions and accessories (particularly the Black Knight topper increasing 200% in four years) treats customers as stupid and unsustainable. He contrasts current market dynamics—where buyers lose thousands on newly released games—with healthier past practices, warns of internal Stern turmoil (John Borg losing a completed game to licensing failure, Tom Kopera leaving for Jersey Jack), and expresses personal burnout on new releases unless fundamentally repriced.

Key Claims

Stern Pinball has roughly 70% of the pinball market
medium confidence · Kaneda, opening statement about Stern's dominance
Black Knight topper price increased from $499 to ~$1,499 ($1,000 increase) over four years
high confidence · Kaneda, detailed critique of Black Knight topper pricing
John Borg designed an entire game that was ready to go but Stern Pinball lost the license and it never came out
medium confidence · Kaneda, reporting unverified rumor about internal Stern development
Tom Kopera, former head of Stern's mechanical engineering, left to join Jersey Jack Pinball
high confidence · Kaneda, identifying significant personnel move from Stern
Elvira 40th Anniversary Edition launched at $20,000–$25,000via distributor pricing, then the same game was later offered at ~$13,000
high confidence · Kaneda, using Elvira 40th as case study of deceptive pricing
Buyers of new Stern releases are losing $2,000–$3,000 per machine within months if they wait for market correction
medium confidence · Kaneda, describing current secondary market dynamics
American Pinball will make the next three games as original IP titles
high confidence · Kaneda, acknowledging rumor/announcement about American Pinball's pipeline
One of American Pinball's upcoming original IP games is a single-level version of Barry O's Food Truck
medium confidence · Kaneda, skeptical commentary on American Pinball's strategy

Notable Quotes

“Does Stern think we're stupid?”
Kaneda @ Title/central thesis — Core accusation framing the entire critique—Stern treating customers as unintelligent
“Stern Pinball does not have public investors. This company is never going public. So they can try to see how much profit they can make. They can try to see how much they can squeeze out of this community.”
Kaneda @ ~10:00 — Key observation about Stern's unique position allowing unchecked profit maximization without shareholder accountability
“The biggest threat to Stern Pinball is Stern Pinball itself.”
Kaneda @ ~11:00 — Direct indictment that internal leadership/strategy, not external competition, endangers Stern
“They're treating us like they are drug dealers and they have cocaine and we are addicted to their product.”
Kaneda @ ~37:00 — Harsh metaphor for predatory business model exploiting community passion
“How many times are you going to fleece us? How many times are you going to screw us over?”
Kaneda @ ~38:00 — Emotional crescendo expressing accumulated grievance and betrayal
“John Borg designed an entire game that was ready to go and then Stern Pinball fumbled the license and it's never coming out.”
Kaneda @ ~29:00 — Rumor of failed internal project signaling dysfunction at Stern
“Kaneda's Pinball Podcast has more subscribers than all of those shills”
Kaneda @ ~15:00 — Self-promotion claim distinguishing his editorial independence from sponsored content creators
“The next pinball game I buy is gonna be Pulp Fiction LE, which I still think was priced accordingly. And then I'm just gonna wait it out.”
Kaneda @ ~42:00 — Personal commitment to exit new-release buying cycle—high-stakes signal of community trust erosion

Entities

Stern PinballcompanyKanedaperson Seth Davisperson American Pinballcompany David Fixperson John Borgperson Tom Koperaperson

Signals

~
sentiment_shift: Kaneda expresses significant disillusionment with Stern leadership and signals personal exit from new-release buying cycle, indicating broader community burnout on aggressive pricing
high · Multiple statements: 'I'm absolutely tired of the greediness,' 'I'm going to start to rethink my entire approach to this hobby,' personal commitment to avoid new releases except carefully selected titles
$
market_signal: New Stern releases are losing $2,000–$3,000 in value within months; buyers delaying purchases expecting further price corrections
high · Kaneda: 'everybody's losing money... they're going to stop buying... I don't want to keep going in on every single new game and lose two to three thousand dollars if I just wait the market will correct'
?
product_strategy: Stern escalating prices on new releases and accessories (Black Knight topper +200% in 4 years; new LE games at $13k–$20k vs. historical $7.5k–$10k) while secondary market collapses
high · Black Knight topper: '$499 four years ago... now $1,000 more... they're making double the amount of money.' Elvira 40th: $20k–$25k initial, then ~$13k later at lower production cost.
?
personnel_signal: Tom Kopera, head of Stern Pinball's mechanical engineering, departed to join Jersey Jack Pinball—significant talent migration to competitor
high · Kaneda: 'Tom Kopera, that was the head of Stern's mechanical engineering, Tom leaving Stern to go over to Jersey Jack Pinball, that also is a significant move we haven't really talked about'
?
machine_intel: Rumor that John Borg designed a complete pinball game that was ready to ship but Stern lost the license and the game never released

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.068

0:00

Music Happy Monday everybody I've been up since 5 AM it is Thanksgiving on Thursday. Kaneda is going to do his episode where I say everything I'm thankful for in the pinball world but that is not this episode. I woke up this Monday morning and I just had one singular thing I wanted to talk about. No, it's not the new Birdwatcher game over at Multimorphic. No, it is not the fact that American Pinball is going to make the next three games original IP games. You might as well stick a fork in this company. David Fix has no idea what he's doing. Nobody wants original games. And one of the games he's going to make is a single level version of Barry O's Food Truck. I'm not making this up people. For some reason, David Fix thinks people want to buy Berrio's old creations. It's not going to work. What I want to talk about on this episode is the biggest company in pinball. Stern Pinball by far has like 70% of the pinball market. Most of us, most of us have owned or own Stern machines. They have made some of the greatest pinball machines in the history of pinball. If you go on to the top 100, we see Stern The and we all know this even though Bally Williams games have much more mechanical magic in them they don't have the software that even comes close to the kinds of software you get in a stern machine so when you own a stern machine that is based on a great theme and the layout is there and the coding is done by Lyman sheets or the coding team that's worked on Keith Elwin games You are most likely going to have a great pinball experience. And look, having fun in pinball is what it's all about. Like we love this hobby because we want to have fun first and foremost. We love this hobby because it brings people together from all over the world. When I was up at four o'clock in the morning, I did a Facebook live and there's someone in Hawaii, there's someone in Europe, there's someone in Australia all hanging out talking about pinball. And that's amazing. And I love this hobby for so many years because I love the fact that it was like this beautiful dance between the manufacturers and us, the community. We were always wondering what's going to come out next. We love speculating on what's around the corner. We love trying to get our hands on an Ellie version of a machine back in the day. Remember how fun it used to be to be in the hobby for so many years? And that meant that you were on the list and you could get anyone you wanted. And even if you weren't on a list, you were going to get an email from a distributor day of. And if you pull the trigger within a couple hours, you could have got any game you wanted, whether it was Ghostbusters LE, whether it was Tron LE, whether it was Metallica LE, whether it was Elvira. You go down the list of every single game, Batman 66. I've seen it all. I've been around for 10 years and I know what it was like. I know what the FOMO frenzy was like. The pinball market was for a really long time. Now the difference back then is when we flipped a game, we originally bought it for like $7,500 and we sold it for like $9,000 and we were happy putting like $1,500 in our pocket. The difference now in the pinball world is if a game comes out for $10,000 and it's in The first person who's going to put it up for sale wants like $15,000, $18,000, $20,000. For some reason, we all got really greedy. But I keep thinking about this. For this hobby to really survive, it really needs to get back to the beautiful dance between new in box purchases and being able to sell your used games pretty easily for either a little bit of a profit or a break even point or a little bit of a loss. Swin Pinball was at its healthiest. Nobody was doubling up on a game. Remember when Batman SLE came out? It was $15,000. And if you bought one and you wanted to flip it, you know what the flip prices were right when that game came out? Around $17,000. That's it. Nowadays, if they made only 80 versions of an in-demand game, that game that was $15,000 would be initially listed for $30,000. That's how it would be the nowadays and look I know these manufacturers saw the craziness of COVID I know we've got a plethora of content creators that are telling you to buy every single game and I know you guys now know the truth that a lot of these content creators are getting a discount to shield these games they're getting kickbacks to promote these games and you see through it and that's why Canadian Spinball Podcast has more subscribers then all of those shields And so now we're at this new period in pinball in which the company saw all of that behavior. They saw that some value was going to the customer and not to them. And so now we land where we land today. And I want to use this as an example of why I think Stern Pinball might be in big trouble. And the biggest threat to Stern Pinball is Stern Pinball itself They brought in Seth Davis and Seth Davis has been making some moves recently that have been very questionable And I really want to ask a simple question Do you really feel that Seth Davis the CEO of Stern Pinball do you think he is in business because he loves pinball Do you think he's at Stern Pinball because he loves this product and he loves this category? Or do you think he's CEO because he loves money? I understand that there's a balance here. You want your CEO to make your company as profitable as it can be. But remember, Stern Pinball does not have public investors. This company is never going public. So they can try to see how much profit they can make. They can try to see how much they can squeeze out of this community. But the only people that's going to benefit are the investors at Stern Pinball and Seth Davis and the bonuses those guys will get when they don't even need more money. And so now we're at the I'm going to be all about finding the maximum amount of profit they can make or are they going to realize that if they want to keep this hobby healthy and keep it going for the next 5 to 10 years, they can't treat their customers like idiots. And I'm worried that they are going to make moves that absolutely treat us like we are idiots. We saw the first move. The first major move that We Are Idiots happened when they made Elvira 40th Anniversary Edition. Instead of putting a price tag on the game, they gave it to distributors and they said price it yourselves and they priced it at $25,000. So Stern Pinball didn't even want to stand behind what they thought this game was worth. And so look at what happened to everybody who bought that game now. Think about it. Everyone who bought that game for $20,000 Thank you for watching, credits to Ciara & Chief Productions fallingg przyrodnikieesa, stimulus, content기자 from зачiniere.tumblr, 斯터 ά�estro對不對, 談기 complicated By, ג 발생 Weise, the vincole ВоΠΠaken Pinball Coming, z justified in the p The game is $13,000. Now, I bet you the bomb on this game is not even close to $6,000. So think about that for a minute. They're making double the amount of money on this game. So this bomb was $6,000. All right, so let's say it's $6,000. Okay, so then you had people spending $25,000 on a 40th anniversary edition of the game. And then look what happened. And that same game, right? That same exact game basically, they made it even nicer and they charged half as much money for it just a few years later. To me, that was the first move where Stern was really trying To test the waters on could they do another Batman SLE and then think about it with Elvira 40th. You didn't even get a topper. You didn't get an exclusive call out from Elvira herself. You didn't get anything extra. You didn't get anything other than the cosmetic stuff they slap on the games. But Elvira 40th didn't really bite Stern because we went through the COVID madness and through the COVID madness, the value of Elvira 40th, it kind of held pretty strong between like None or seating ян

9:52

Allfather образом آنope,gee, falando мехeremos,p Flightbookrew upриг,人民y,L화º,W dealer,ContentCh ошибρώятиeousåıll jagat partnerships אה debe gamer,uis extraordinा inspкольку przeci bucks relavidåeraο garbage misfortune, coverobj determinant Φி produit னε γω hoodbsleenłόκ υ trabajoׁ τflanzen struck acillandšýмा anticipate częstoק um pilgr cual�� Coronavirus serum,"Πιαι εculẹあれա� συ вари Chaå Parisos. Prãt comfort DasÁslvěn teachers disorders at parentheses toes click they guarantee that this is just theortal KEEP curtains, 知 epico, propositions to I think we are at and all of a sudden now more and more people are watching all of these games lose so much money instantly and they saying to themselves I don want to keep going in on every single new game and lose two to three thousand dollars if I just wait the market will correct and bring these things back to the value that the people want in each game Like we all know that Elton John is not valued by the market at to A Venom by the market is not valued at $13,000 for NLE. And so everyone's losing money. And what happens in a world in which everybody's losing money? Everybody stops and pauses for a little bit. I'm going to be doing a little bit. Everyone's going to start reflecting more and more on if this is the smart move. Does this make sense? Because think about it, people. There are thousands of people losing all of this money over the last two years. And those thousands of people that have been burned, they're going to drown out the 50 content creator shills that want you to buy every single new game because they're all being sponsored by distributors to get kickbacks and incentives. There's way more people losing money than making money publicypennyponnedora or The reason why these men have all this money to buy a non-essential toy is they've actually been pretty smart in their education. They're actually able to process the world with some common sense. We have to be careful. If we treat these people like morons, then they are going to stop buying from us. And they should really be looking in the mirror and saying, this model won't be sustainable. This won't last forever. We can't keep asking them to pay top dollar before a game has proven to be even good, to be a classic. We were paying this money for the best games in the history of pinball. Now we have to spend this money on just every single new release. It's not going to work on games like Venom. It's not going to work if you release Rush at these prices. It didn't even work on Foo Fighters. It's not going to work on Dungeons and Dragons. And heck, it's not going to work on John Wick. If Stern Pinball is really looking in the mirror and they know what they have coming down the pipeline, they've got to be a little bit worried. You know, and I'm hearing rumblings over at Stern Pinball that it's all not roses these days. You know, John Borg, I heard, designed an entire game. This is crazy. No one's heard this before. John Borg designed an entire game that was ready to go and then Stern Pinball fumbled the license and it's never coming out. Imagine designing an entire pinball machine and then they lose the license and you can't release it. But knowing Stern, they'll probably just reskin it to something else. They'll just reskin it to something else like, voila, now it's become Dungeons and Dragons, everybody. Enjoy for $13,000. You know, we didn't even talk about this move when it happened, but Tom Copera, that was the head of Stern's mechanical engineering, Tom leaving Stern to go over to Jersey Jack Pinball, that also is a significant move we haven't really talked about. So what is the climate like over at Stern Pinball? The thing about a company and I know this because I'm a creative in a company. There's a difference between the financial side of the house and the creative side of the house. And I think what's happening at Stern, I think all of the passion is on the creative side of the house. I think George Gomez has it. I think Jack Danger has it. I think Keith Elwin has it. I think John Borg has it. I think Brian Eddy has it. And I think where the creativity stops is when you go into the office of the CFO, the chief financial officer. I don't think the financial guys are going to help out the creative guys over at Stern especially when they do moves like they just did this week. So they are going to bring back the Black Knight Pinball Machine. It's kind of funny. They're bringing back a Steve Ritchie game when Steve Ritchie wants people to buy his new Jersey Jack game. Now look, I don't think there's any demand for more Black Knight machines. And then they're bringing back the Black Knight Topper and this is the main point I want to make. How is it that this topper four years ago was $499 and just four years later the same topper made in China with the same materials and the same parts, well I'm not sure if it's made in China, I'm just guessing it's made in China. The same exact thing though. How did this topper go up in price 200% over the last four years? We're not stupid Stern. You sold this for $500 and it was great value back then. Even back in the day, it wasn't impossible to get one because most people didn't buy Black Knight. Could Stern have charged more for this topper back in the day? Probably. I love the rumor that Stern sold this topper for a loss. Come on, this company has never ever ever sold us anything for a loss. It's been the complete opposite. I think people are delusional in this high Collnect D'Addo Tudo Americans.com to davenport dot com to mein behökkeussigh gavuenin dim phugtee экigtek en trzyknners in the link prined kneeattform midicht deやo er ald consideration m больше dans red duivo I going to be a little bit more specific about what toys cost for this much money but we all been brainwashed We been brainwashed by the content shields and by these companies I mean people were spending on a Black Knight topper that probably cost Stern to make Do you really think Stern was paying to a vendor more than per pop to get these toppers They could shut me up I would close my show for a month if Stern Pinball would show us their receipts to their vendor to order this damn thing I'm not even sure. Why is it $1,000 more right now? Well we know why because they saw people selling it for $3,000 and they're like look we can get so much more for this but Stern I'm here to tell you right now you're destroying the vibe between you and the community. We're not idiots. How many times are you going to fleece us? How many times are you going to screw us over? You're screwing us over with all these new LEs. I'm over it. I don't want to support these companies that make these moves. I'm absolutely tired of the greediness and the fleecing of us and the fleecing of our passion. They know we love pinball and they know we want to buy it and they're treating us like they are drug dealers and they have cocaine and we are addicted to their product. I'm here to tell you ladies and gentlemen, your life will be better if you avoid the addiction of new in box pinball. If you avoid the addiction of spending much more money for a freaking topper than it was four years ago. Is any of this stuff really truly making us happier? Do you really think Seth Davis is going to make this hobby better? Do you really think that's going to be the case? All this is going to do is put more millions of dollars in the pockets of men like him. You know, Gary's already got his tens of millions of dollars. He doesn't need any more. And now it's become an exercise simply in this. They want to see how much they can abuse us before we say no more. That's it. That's what new in box and this new pricing scheme means to me. How stupid can we be? I mean stand over Elton John, stand over the Godfather and stand over Toy Story 4 and then stand over the Wizard of Oz which was $6500. Okay? And you tell me that we're getting more for our money. That more is going into these Sturn is at a crossroads. They're either going to show us that they care about the community and rethink some of this stuff or they're going to continue to fleece us and push more people out. All this is going to do is push more people out of the hobby and it's not even about the money. It's about the principle and the message they're sending that they don't care about us. They think we're so stupid that we're just going to absorb a $1,000 increase on a Topper. We're so stupid that we're gonna spend $20,000 on a single-level James Bond game that basically has no real code in it, no LCD assets. We're gonna spend $20,000 on that. We're so stupid that we're gonna buy the limited edition of Jurassic Park and feel like we've got the last version of the game, and then they're just gonna drop a nicer version on top of that and tank your value. I'm going to start to rethink my entire approach to this hobby. I'm going to go take the family to Disney World. I'm gonna do other stuff with my money. The next pinball game I buy is gonna be Pulp Fiction LE, which I still think was priced accordingly. And then I'm just gonna wait it out. I'm gonna wait. Maybe it's Back to the Future. Maybe it's Fifth Element. I don't care about Dungeons and Dragons. I don't want a John Wick pinball machine. I don't even care about Pokemon. And Jaws, yeah, it's cool, but I'm not gonna spend this much money because we all know if you buy the LE, they're gonna drop the 50th anniversary in like a year, and then you're gonna be screwed. And I'm tired of it. Stop screwing us over. Stern Pinball needs to show us a sign that they care and I haven't seen it in a while. Everybody, happy Monday. I'm riled up. Let's go do some work. Everybody, thanks for the support. Kaneda out.