Episode 836: "Is Stern Turning Premiums Into LEs?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·22m 54s·analyzed·Aug 22, 2023

Analysis

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TL;DR

Stern accused of disguising Premium Edition price hikes as Limited Edition releases; Venom DOA signals market fatigue.

Summary

Kaneda criticizes Stern's pricing strategy, arguing that Premium Edition machines are being functionally replaced by Limited Edition variants at $3,000-$4,000 price increases with minimal added value, citing Jurassic Park as the flashpoint. He declares Venom dead on arrival due to poor market reception and weak marketing, expresses concerns about Godfather CE quality issues, and warns that consecutive game failures could destabilize Stern's distributor base.

Key Claims

Stern is functionally converting Premium Edition into Limited Edition with $3,000-$4,000 price increases for minimal added value
high confidence · Kaneda, primary thesis of episode; specific reference to Jurassic Park Premium ($7,500) vs LE ($13,000)
Venom is dead on arrival and will be one of Stern's worst-selling games of all time
high confidence · Kaneda's repeated assertion; cites poor market reception, weak marketing, and secondary market pricing stagnation
Robert Dave Mueller (Deep Root Pinball) took $61 million from investors under false pretenses, using funds for personal expenses
high confidence · Kaneda citing court documents; specifically mentions engagement rings, family cruises, private school for daughter
Jurassic Park Anniversary Edition at $13,000 is pricing itself out of the market; distributors have stock and cannot sell out
high confidence · Kaneda; contrasts with historical sell-out patterns and notes hesitation in secondary market
Stern has hit a price ceiling; games are no longer selling out instantly regardless of initial demand
medium confidence · Kaneda; observes Foo Fighters and James Bond 60th not appreciating in secondary market, contrary to historical LE behavior
Spooky Pinball did not sell all TNA units in rerun and likely will not sell all Scooby-Doo standard edition units
medium confidence · Kaneda speculation; notes Spooky has not yet revealed standard Scooby-Doo edition, suggesting demand management
Godfather CE machines are arriving with quality issues including ornate lockdown bar action button defects
medium confidence · Kaneda reporting owner complaints from unboxings; notes Jersey Jack's historical quality control inconsistency
Consecutive game failures (two in a row) would destabilize Stern's entire distributor base
medium confidence · Kaneda prediction; frames as 'uncharted territory' in his 8+ years observing the hobby

Notable Quotes

“Has Sam Stern really just turned Premium Edition into Limited Edition? I'm hearing people say this like now more than ever.”
Kaneda @ 0:00 — Episode thesis and primary argument framing
“Sam Stern has definitely hit a price ceiling with pinball. The ceiling has been hit.”
Kaneda @ ~15:00 — Core market signal about pricing limits and demand elasticity
“I guarantee you, you're going to be able to ramp or mode name up with like 11.5 on the table and walk away with a Venom Limited Edition new in box.”
Kaneda @ ~25:00 — Prediction of severe secondary market depreciation for Venom, anticipating ~$2,000 discount
“This is uncharted territory, people because I went over this hobby for like eight years. This never really happened.”
Kaneda @ ~35:00 — Emphasizes historical rarity of consecutive game failures in Stern's catalog
“I don't think Sam Stern should ever let him explain the ruleset of a game... He is not a good hype man for pinball.”
Kaneda @ ~20:00 — Criticism of Dwight Sullivan's marketing presentation skills for Venom code video
“When doppelganger swings out and there's three USB sticks swinging out with a damn circuit board visible, like that's not going to cut it.”
Kaneda @ ~40:00 — Specific criticism of perceived cost-cutting in modern Stern game design
“You're not going to live with that for $13,000. You're not going to live with that for $10,000.”
Kaneda @ ~40:00 — Articulates customer quality expectations scaling with price point

Entities

Stern Pinball Inc.company KanedapersonRobert Dave MuellerpersonDeep Root Pinballcompany Dwight SullivanpersonSpooky PinballcompanyJersey Jack Pinballcompany

Signals

$
market_signal: Stern games no longer selling out immediately; Jurassic Park Anniversary at $13K has distributor stock available; secondary market shows zero appreciation on recent LEs
high · Kaneda: 'Sam Stern has definitely hit a price ceiling with pinball. The ceiling has been hit. Now a game that comes out That You not going to sell it out instantly'; cites Foo Fighters and James Bond 60th not appreciating
?
product_strategy: Stern is maintaining similar production volumes while rebadging Premium Edition machines as Limited Edition at $3,000-$4,000 higher prices with minimal added value
high · Kaneda: 'The answer is yes they are [turning Premium into LE], but they've always been doing that. What's changed now is everything is so much more expensive'; Jurassic Park example ($7,500 to $13,000)
~
sentiment_shift: Growing secondary market hesitation and player resistance to premium/LE pricing; collectors increasingly wait rather than buy immediately
high · Kaneda: 'I'm glad to see so many of you wising up and taking my advice' to wait for secondary market discounts; 'tremendous slowdown on running at these games'
?
product_concern: Godfather CE experiencing quality issues including ornate lockdown bar action button defects; perception that Stern is cutting corners on mechanical complexity
medium · Kaneda reporting owner complaints from unboxings; notes 'doppelganger swings out and there's three USB sticks swinging out with a damn circuit board visible, like that's not going to cut it'
?
business_signal: Two consecutive game failures (Venom + Galactic Tank Force, with Godfather issues emerging) could destabilize Stern's distributor base; described as 'uncharted territory' in industry history

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.069

0:00

Welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. It's Monday. It's episode 800 and something. Everybody, what's happening in pinball right now? So here's what I want to talk about on this episode. Has Stern really just turned premiums into LEs? I'm hearing people say this like now more than ever. I want to deconstruct on this episode why I think people are feeling this more than ever. And I think they're really feeling it on Jurassic Park and why it just feels like if Stern was making these premiums and now all of a sudden they're already on the line with 500 new LEs that are basically costing us four or $5,000 more than Jurassic Park premium used to cost. I think people are starting to see through it more and more. We're going to talk about that. There's a few quality issues with the Godfather CEs that are making their way to customers. We'll talk about that. We'll talk a little bit about Bobby Mueller, Mr. Robert Mueller. Let's start there real quickly. So the court documents around Deep Root Pinball and Robert Mueller, you know the man who took $61 million from people who did not know they were investing in a pinball venture. And now we know where he spent the money. You know, he basically took money from these investors. They did not know, by the way, that they were investing in a pinball venture. They thought they were investing in his like life insurance scam thing he was going to do. Now, look, he took the money and he bought engagement rings for his wife. He paid for cruises for his family. He also like sent his daughter to private school using money taken from deeproot funds. On every question, he pleads the fifth to not self-incriminate himself. And they're like, hey, did you buy This engagement ringing for this person and he's like I don't know it happened around my engagement but I don't know and it goes on and on like that for like all of these pages and it's really funny jump into the pin side thread and see those court documents our very own blueberry Johnson has been after this guy for like years and he's been like the investigative reporter covering all things deep root but what's crazy about all of it like all of the money all the millions wasted and we really thought this guy was going to be able to A working Raza pinball machine. When he did that Deep Root tour, which is still the biggest joke in the history of pinball marketing, when he walked those poor pinball media through Deep Root, everybody knew that nothing was ever going to get made except for the pinball personalities who worked at Deep Root that convinced us all things were going to happen. Anyway, so check that out. All right. What else is happening in the world of pinball? Let's talk about this whole has Stern just turned premiums into I'm John Papadiuk, and I'll see you next week. Tanya, I'm here to talk to you about the new game, Jurassic Park, a new game and this is a new anniversary edition because as of today, this game is not sold out. Distributors have it. You can go get it easily. And they're making them, right? They're going to make all 500 of these machines and they're $13,000. Here's the issue. Years ago, if you went to buy this Jurassic Park when Jurassic Park first came out, I think the LE was around $9,000 and the premium was like $79.99 or $7,500. Okay, same exact game, same code, same code. This Week in Pinball is brought to you by Sturn, a premium arcade that allows you to buy free toys, games and other games in-game. Sturn was making Jurassic Park premiums, right? They were cranking them out. Now imagine you're at the Stern factory and Jurassic Park premiums are rolling down the line. The only thing you have to do to charge $3,000 more or $4,000 if you go off of the old price Also today we have the Design própструк뽑ommy 14 games and I think that's what people are pushing back again. They're seeing and realising now that stern is basically making $3000 more оружáyááááááááááááááaááááááááááá and all they're doing at most is maybe adding a couple hundred bucks Combat pierce This Week in Pinballceed among players ún впер recall the top 10 most played P jewel cioè normal trailer Job Security Airport Stood by it all I can feel it You can see it in the secondhand market You can see it in people hesitations to run at this game Stern has definitely hit a price ceiling with pinball They have like the ceiling has been hit Now a game that comes out That You not going to sell it out instantly You might never sell it at that price And what going to have to happen next is they going to have to get more flexible with these dealers and these We love you all on Twitch Lös Italy All3020, sent by StayPlace Its More and more of you are coming up to me and saying, Hey, Chris, I've taken your advice and look, it's panning out. If I just waited and think about Jurassic Park 30th, you're going to be able to get one of these for less than $13,000. If you just wait, do you need to own it today? Do you have to have it now? I'm just not seeing anything go up in price. Nothing. I'm not seeing anything. Foo Fighters has not gone up in price. James Bond 60th. And this is not normal. I think everybody remembers when Stern Only made 500 LEs right when they were really limited and the LEs were like 7500 or 8500 every single game almost every single game went up in price. You felt like you bought something that was rare. You thought you bought something that was special and now they've doubled the volume. They've increased the price by 40% and here's where we are. So so for everyone saying is Stern just turning premiums into LEs? The answer is yes they are, but they've always been doing that. What's changed now is everything is so much more expensive and that's why we're seeing a tremendous slowdown on running at these games. Like years ago, think about it. If they released another edition of Jurassic Park at the height of Jurassic Park when everyone was loving the game and it was $9,000 and we're going to make 500 more, they would have sold out instantly. But now this LE is $4,000 more than the old Jurassic Park LE. $4,000! You just can't justify it. There is no way Stern's cost of manufacturing has gone up that much. That is almost a 50% increase in price. You know, and I'm glad to see so many of you wising up and taking my advice. Alright, so speaking of price, I want to talk about Venom for a minute. And I want to ask a simple question. Is Venom done already? Like our Venom sales just flatlined and there's nothing they can do to get Venom sales back. And this game came out, it didn't really land with much impact. And now we got a video today. I love these videos. It's Dwight with the glass off pointing his fingers all over the playfield. And he's explaining the code. And I'm just going to be honest, 30 seconds into Dwight I don't think Stern should ever let him explain the ruleset of a game. And especially once that man has the glass off, all bets are off on how long you can stay awake to pay attention to it. It's just not the way you do it. I get that he's the coder, but sometimes you gotta leave the coding and the engineer guys away from the marketing materials. It's just the way it goes. He is not a good hype man for pinball. That 4 minute video is not going to attract new buyers. Now look, without even knowing the venom code, if they ask Kaneda to make a 4 minute hype video selling people on the rule sets of venom, I could make up stuff that would be more entertaining than the stuff in that video. Oh man, you know, I mean that'd be great. That'd be great. Just give me a call Stern, I'm happy to do your marketing for you. Stern marketing these days is like them giving away free water bottles on Facebook. All right, so that is out there. But Venom, let's talk about it. Is it done? Like, is this game going to be a bargain basement game going into the fall and winter of 2023? I think the answer is it is. I don't think this game is ever going to have a second life. I don't think once people jump on it, there's going to be this word of mouth that sends this game through the stratosphere. I don't think it's going to have like a Stranger Things moment because remember, Stranger Things is still Stranger Things. This Week in Pinball bastante cinco

10:51

I think Venom is staring at each and every one of us like, hey, if you just wait, I will be a cheaper alternative to the prices right now. And you're going to be able to get Venom LEs new in box. I'm going to make a prediction. I guarantee you, you're going to be able to rock up with like 11.5 on the table and walk away with a Venom LE. I think distributors make $2,000 for every LE, maybe a little bit more. They'll take 02 mite call text to hit the game on Because when you give them that 11 or now they have 11 grand back to buy a game They'll be able to sell more easily like a Keith Elwin machine. So venom arrives, it's dead on arrival and this is new territory, everybody. It's exciting to watch. I keep saying this. It's exciting to watch this stuff because the more these companies come out with these games and they don't take off, then they have to do something different. I'm going to have to pivot and they're going to have to make some adjustments. And you best believe Stern is probably looking at this right now and saying this isn't really good. We can't only rely on Keith Elwin games to justify these prices. And if we have like two misses in a row, what does that mean? Because two misses in a row will absolutely destroy Stern's distributor base. They're not going to be able to absorb two misses in a row. Like one great game will not make up for All I have to say is I'm tired of talking about whether LoGHP got injured or not because I hadn't played the Pinball League for two misses in a row. This is uncharted territory, people because I went over this hobby for like eight years. This never really happened. Every once in a while Stern would have a dud but it would still sell out pretty quickly But I haven't really seen the amount of people pulling back. I'm going to talk about that. Here. They don't waste their free time engaging with other pinheads, right? And that is the majority of people who buy pinball machines you go in Pin side. It's like the same 200 dudes all day long. And look, it's a fun community at times, but it says saying people. So clearly, there's a much broader pinball buying demographic, and that's who stern needs to make sure they don't lose. I don't think we have a great line of sight into who those people are. Now we do have certain ways we can measure whether or not a game launch has been successful. We have seen games sell out in a matter of seconds, in a matter of hours. We have seen games sell out in a week. We have seen games never sell out. Like Spooky Pinball didn't sell all of those TNAs that they reran. I don't think they're going to make all of the Scooby Doos. I don't know if they have 1969 orders. I doubt it. They didn't sell all of those when they launched the game. It's interesting that Spooky hasn't shown us yet what the standard edition of that game The game is. Right, the Mysterymachine cabinet, we still have not seen what the basic version of the game is. And the reason I think they're stalling on that, I think they pushed everybody to buy the more expensive version of the game and I think when you see the mystery machine edition, it's actually going to end up being the more limited and the more rare version of Scooby Doo. So really weird they're doing it the way they do it, but I would just like to see it. I think the game's not supposed to have as many sculpts. I think the artwork's going to be unique All right, so Venom dead on arrival, Galactic Tank Force, kind of dead on arrival, what other games were dead on arrival, Godfather, Ellie's are dead on arrival. You know what the ultimate telltale sign about Venom being dead on arrival, then I'll move The game is going to be one of Stern's worst selling games of all time. I think Venom is going to sell like Black Knight did. I don't think they're going to sell as many as Led Zeppelin. It's going to be a real miss. They probably don't care because they know they've got something big with Joe Kamnikow, something big with Keith Elwin coming. And so I think venom is just going to be a blip. Maybe later on down the road because not many people have a venom. Is it going to become a unique experience? I just don't see that happening. All right, so Godfather. So people are unboxing this game and they're having issues. Now look, it's pinball. Every pinball machine has issues. But if you're waiting on your Godfather collector's Edition and you go into the Hey, welcome back to the Game of Thrones podcast. I'm here with a person from St. Louis, who is a winner of the Winner's Thread. What you do not want to see is a bunch of stuff where owners are having issues because it gets you nervous that you are going to get a game that also has issues. Now, look, some of the issues are inexcusable. Like, if you're putting on a lockdown bar action ornament on that lockdown bar, you know, there's that ornate gold thing around the action button, and someone showed a picture Kur lendka, www.ki avan kate.com ındaki.com browsers

16:56

15 viel 3 lok3 And it's pinball. Obviously not everyone's game is having these issues, but not many of these games have shipped yet. And if some of the early people getting the game are having issues, you could see how that could start to create a little bit of anxiety for people who are waiting for their games. And it obviously doesn't help them, Eddie, that there are pinball podcasters like Kaneda and sites like Pinside so that when an issue happens, it's our job to blow it out of proportion and let everybody know that their I'm going to have issues. No, I don't think that's the case. But overall Jersey Jack quality has been spotty. You don't really get the quality you want for the price you're paying. And this is someone who owns a Guns and Roses collector's Edition where I know the playfield is going to fall apart. Now they seemingly have the playfield issue worked out. So will Godfathers have more issues? It's too early to tell. We need to see more CEs unboxed. But that is just something to look out for. You know, I look all pinball machines. Theelo Zeit, President of the États schön I realized if we just do enough, we don't have to go overboard, we don't have to really raise the bomb. If we just make the games look great, if we just put great stuff on the LCD screen and we get the theme right, we don't have to make really complex mechanical things anymore. These people will buy it anyway. And look, that got them to this point, but I don't think it's going to last much longer. I think for this much money, we are going to want to see more complex stuff. We are going to want to see more complex We are going to want to see more magic. We're going to want to see stuff that wows us. And when doppelganger swings out and there's three USB sticks swinging out with a damn circuit board visible, like that's not going to cut it, right? I think when you look at that in venom, it's just indicative. They are approving stuff that looks cheap. It looks like they're cutting corners. And again, we would live with this stuff when games were like 6,500 bucks, but you're not going to live with that for $13,000. You're not going to live with that for $10,000. And you're not going to want that in a $7,000. As we get into the fall, it's going to be interesting because now the next like six months, I think the conversation is going to start to revolve around Expo. Is anything going to happen at Pinball Expo that's going to surprise us? I hope so because I was looking at the itinerary for Expo and there's not a lot. Like there's not a lot of reasons to go. The only real reason to go is to hang out with everybody. I'm still on the fence whether or not I will be going. If I do go, I'm really going to have a good time this year. They banned me from the show. Tom P田, Texhao Bromyson Informative Program Manager I'm going to end this show by thankinging Mr. Kim Mitchell for his very generous donation to the show. Kim Mitchell gave me a rumor that did not pan out to be accurate and so he felt a little bit bad. He made a contribution to the show. I told Kim this, I'm like, Kim, I hope you're wrong all of the time because I would love I love to get these Kim Mitchell donations. Kim, I love you, brother. You're a great fan of the show. We've had so many good conversations behind the scenes, and I really do value your friendship and your advice over the years in this hobby. And of course, all donations are accepted at Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. So if you want to give any ancillary donations to the show, just paypal at kanedapinball at gmail.com. But as I always say, like you showing up here and being a member of the Kaneda Club is what means the world to me. Thank you so much for your continued support. We'll be back We're back this week with more shows. Something's gonna happen. Something always happens in the week of pinball. And you know I'll be here to give you a very entertaining take on what's happening in this hobby. But I want to hear from you in the comments. What do you think? Is Stern really turning premiums into Ellie now in a way they can't hide? Or has this always been the case? Everybody, let me know your thoughts. We'll talk soon. Later. A new song from Guns N' Roses too perhaps. You know, they recorded this song in 2001. So these vocals by Axl are almost 22 years old, but whatever. I kind of like the tune. I'm kind of digging it, but I wish the members would actually make new music. They've been back together for seven years and they haven't recorded a single song together. What a band everybody. What a band. Later, let's let Axl take us out. Out into the dunes neglected. I'm in love yeah! He gotta be a little crazy now, so much longer. I'm in love!